Who will win the Championships?

Forum rules
Please read the forum rules

Who will win the WDC/WCC

Hamilton & Mercedes
17
36%
Hamilton & Red Bull
18
38%
Verstappen & Mercedes
6
13%
Verstappen & Red Bull
6
13%
Other combination (comment)
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 47

User avatar
Johnson
Posts: 1795
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:20 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:01 pm
Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:59 am
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:30 am
Since there are about 2-3 comments saying the same thing (Tufty/Johnson/ATH) - I did not make the original comment; I'm only trying to rationalize how mikey may have come up with the number.

As for the incidents themselves - wasn't Hamilton a lap down in Imola (genuinely asking, can't remember) prior to the red flag? In any case, it was a race ending error, so any points there should count as luck from that point on.

For Baku - I agree that the brake magic incident would likely not have happened in isolation without the red flag (might not have, doesn't necessarily mean wouldn't have) - however, this doesn't change the fact that Verstappen lost 26 points to Hamilton all things considered. Using the butterfly effect we can argue about every single incident and point swing that has ever happened - the reality is that Verstappen lost a guaranteed race win and a likely point for the fastest lap due to no mistake of his own, while Hamilton lost out on a possible 18-25 points due to his own mistake.

This is without considering that his tyre had a 7 cm cut that Pirelli found later which might have resulted in a DNF for him (which ironically would have been a better result for him because he would at least have a legitimate excuse and fan sympathy for scoring 0 points).
Going off track and through the gravel is racing ending error and deserves a 0 point finish? That makes Schumacher epic Hungary 1998 victory look a lot different, he deserves to DNF that race too? A lucky win?
Pesky Schumacher (who has nothing to do with this topic btw) breaking off his front wing and then winning races - what can I say. Or that it didn't happen, but cool story bro.
Why did you not answer the question?

If its wing damage you need in an example, Malaysia 2003, Schumacher losing his front wing and going on to score 3 points. Enough to win the WDC.

A.J.
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:37 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by A.J. »

Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:11 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:01 pm
Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:59 am
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:30 am
Since there are about 2-3 comments saying the same thing (Tufty/Johnson/ATH) - I did not make the original comment; I'm only trying to rationalize how mikey may have come up with the number.

As for the incidents themselves - wasn't Hamilton a lap down in Imola (genuinely asking, can't remember) prior to the red flag? In any case, it was a race ending error, so any points there should count as luck from that point on.

For Baku - I agree that the brake magic incident would likely not have happened in isolation without the red flag (might not have, doesn't necessarily mean wouldn't have) - however, this doesn't change the fact that Verstappen lost 26 points to Hamilton all things considered. Using the butterfly effect we can argue about every single incident and point swing that has ever happened - the reality is that Verstappen lost a guaranteed race win and a likely point for the fastest lap due to no mistake of his own, while Hamilton lost out on a possible 18-25 points due to his own mistake.

This is without considering that his tyre had a 7 cm cut that Pirelli found later which might have resulted in a DNF for him (which ironically would have been a better result for him because he would at least have a legitimate excuse and fan sympathy for scoring 0 points).
Going off track and through the gravel is racing ending error and deserves a 0 point finish? That makes Schumacher epic Hungary 1998 victory look a lot different, he deserves to DNF that race too? A lucky win?
Pesky Schumacher (who has nothing to do with this topic btw) breaking off his front wing and then winning races - what can I say. Or that it didn't happen, but cool story bro.
Why did you not answer the question?

If its wing damage you need in an example, Malaysia 2003, Schumacher losing his front wing and going on to score 3 points. Enough to win the WDC.
Is this a Schumacher thread? Please stay on topic, thanks.

User avatar
F1Tyrant
Posts: 2505
Joined: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:27 pm
Location: UK

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1Tyrant »

I'm curious if there is much Hamilton can do in his own power to reclaim 'driver of the season' accolade. Verstappen has clearly been the better driver of the two after 6 rounds.

Would it take Hamilton beating Verstappen in a car that seems marginally inferior? Or does Verstappen have to lose his cool and make more unforced errors than Hamilton.
OVERRATED LEGENDS RACING

A.J.
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:37 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by A.J. »

F1Tyrant wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:36 pm
I'm curious if there is much Hamilton can do in his own power to reclaim 'driver of the season' accolade. Verstappen has clearly been the better driver of the two after 6 rounds.

Would it take Hamilton beating Verstappen in a car that seems marginally inferior? Or does Verstappen have to lose his cool and make more unforced errors than Hamilton.
I suspect the coming races will suit the Merc more, which means there is a real chance of seeing more errors from Verstappen as he pushes to the limits to keep up. If the cars remain roughly equal, then I think you will see more errors from Hamilton - of course, this is nothing more than conjecture at this point.

Siao7
Posts: 9471
Joined: Tue May 05, 2009 11:31 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Siao7 »

A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:01 pm
Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:59 am
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:30 am
Since there are about 2-3 comments saying the same thing (Tufty/Johnson/ATH) - I did not make the original comment; I'm only trying to rationalize how mikey may have come up with the number.

As for the incidents themselves - wasn't Hamilton a lap down in Imola (genuinely asking, can't remember) prior to the red flag? In any case, it was a race ending error, so any points there should count as luck from that point on.

For Baku - I agree that the brake magic incident would likely not have happened in isolation without the red flag (might not have, doesn't necessarily mean wouldn't have) - however, this doesn't change the fact that Verstappen lost 26 points to Hamilton all things considered. Using the butterfly effect we can argue about every single incident and point swing that has ever happened - the reality is that Verstappen lost a guaranteed race win and a likely point for the fastest lap due to no mistake of his own, while Hamilton lost out on a possible 18-25 points due to his own mistake.

This is without considering that his tyre had a 7 cm cut that Pirelli found later which might have resulted in a DNF for him (which ironically would have been a better result for him because he would at least have a legitimate excuse and fan sympathy for scoring 0 points).
Going off track and through the gravel is racing ending error and deserves a 0 point finish? That makes Schumacher epic Hungary 1998 victory look a lot different, he deserves to DNF that race too? A lucky win?
Pesky Schumacher (who has nothing to do with this topic btw) breaking off his front wing and then winning races - what can I say. Or that it didn't happen, but cool story bro.
Yeah, I have to agree here, no idea what Johnson is comparing here. Schumacher overcooked a corner that ultimately cost him 4 seconds or something, I am unsure how this is compared as a racing ending error... What does this even mean "he deserves to DNF that race too?"? What does a small corner outing "deserve" a DNF? I am genuinely confused.

SR1
Posts: 260
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:41 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by SR1 »

A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:41 pm
F1Tyrant wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:36 pm
I'm curious if there is much Hamilton can do in his own power to reclaim 'driver of the season' accolade. Verstappen has clearly been the better driver of the two after 6 rounds.

Would it take Hamilton beating Verstappen in a car that seems marginally inferior? Or does Verstappen have to lose his cool and make more unforced errors than Hamilton.
I suspect the coming races will suit the Merc more, which means there is a real chance of seeing more errors from Verstappen as he pushes to the limits to keep up. If the cars remain roughly equal, then I think you will see more errors from Hamilton - of course, this is nothing more than conjecture at this point.
Verstappen hasn't been immune from making mistakes in the faster/and/or equal car. Seems many have already forgotten his messy overtake in Bahrain, for instance. He had the fastest car in Baku but crashed the car shortly before qualifying and then proceeded to get beaten in Q3 by a slower Merc. In Imola, he had the fastest car in Q3 but fluffed his lines that cost him pole and then spun behind the sc in the race. Spain Q3, there was nothing to separate Merc and RB, yet he lost pole again due to a driving error in turn four.

I'd agree Max has been slightly better than Lewis so far, but let's no pretend Max only makes mistakes due to a car disadvantage.

A.J.
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:37 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by A.J. »

SR1 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:27 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:41 pm
F1Tyrant wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:36 pm
I'm curious if there is much Hamilton can do in his own power to reclaim 'driver of the season' accolade. Verstappen has clearly been the better driver of the two after 6 rounds.

Would it take Hamilton beating Verstappen in a car that seems marginally inferior? Or does Verstappen have to lose his cool and make more unforced errors than Hamilton.
I suspect the coming races will suit the Merc more, which means there is a real chance of seeing more errors from Verstappen as he pushes to the limits to keep up. If the cars remain roughly equal, then I think you will see more errors from Hamilton - of course, this is nothing more than conjecture at this point.
Verstappen hasn't been immune from making mistakes in the faster/and/or equal car. Seems many have already forgotten his messy overtake in Bahrain, for instance. He had the fastest car in Baku but crashed the car shortly before qualifying and then proceeded to get beaten in Q3 by a slower Merc. In Imola, he had the fastest car in Q3 but fluffed his lines that cost him pole and then spun behind the sc in the race. Spain Q3, there was nothing to separate Merc and RB, yet he lost pole again due to a driving error in turn four.

I'd agree Max has been slightly better than Lewis so far, but let's no pretend Max only makes mistakes due to a car disadvantage.
I'm not even remotely suggesting that Verstappen doesn't/won't make any mistakes - I simply said I expect more mistakes from Hamilton if the cars are roughly equal and he gets pushed.

Of the mistakes you have pointed out, it is clear he's making them more in sessions other than the race itself (and no, he didn't spin behind the safety car in Imola - he had a moment, but it wasn't a spin). Disagree with Spain, the Merc was clearly quicker than the RBR there (and Verstappen was off from pole by 0.036 seconds) - if you're talking about the second run, none of the frontrunners improved on their time (and Hamilton made a couple of big mistakes, including coming out of the chicane).

User avatar
F1Tyrant
Posts: 2505
Joined: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:27 pm
Location: UK

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1Tyrant »

A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:43 pm
I simply said I expect more mistakes from Hamilton if the cars are roughly equal and he gets pushed.
I know you've admitted this is conjecture but since 2014, Hamilton has performed very well in crunch situations.

2016: Would have won the last five races without his infamous engine failure
2017: Extremely consistent after Singapore
2018: Excellent second half of the season

If anything, I expect once Verstappen falters that Hamilton will unleash a storm of performance to crush Verstappen as he did to Vettel. Verstappen will prove his greatness to withstand the panther and come out on top.
OVERRATED LEGENDS RACING

User avatar
Johnson
Posts: 1795
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:20 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

Siao7 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:03 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:01 pm
Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:59 am
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:30 am
Since there are about 2-3 comments saying the same thing (Tufty/Johnson/ATH) - I did not make the original comment; I'm only trying to rationalize how mikey may have come up with the number.

As for the incidents themselves - wasn't Hamilton a lap down in Imola (genuinely asking, can't remember) prior to the red flag? In any case, it was a race ending error, so any points there should count as luck from that point on.

For Baku - I agree that the brake magic incident would likely not have happened in isolation without the red flag (might not have, doesn't necessarily mean wouldn't have) - however, this doesn't change the fact that Verstappen lost 26 points to Hamilton all things considered. Using the butterfly effect we can argue about every single incident and point swing that has ever happened - the reality is that Verstappen lost a guaranteed race win and a likely point for the fastest lap due to no mistake of his own, while Hamilton lost out on a possible 18-25 points due to his own mistake.

This is without considering that his tyre had a 7 cm cut that Pirelli found later which might have resulted in a DNF for him (which ironically would have been a better result for him because he would at least have a legitimate excuse and fan sympathy for scoring 0 points).
Going off track and through the gravel is racing ending error and deserves a 0 point finish? That makes Schumacher epic Hungary 1998 victory look a lot different, he deserves to DNF that race too? A lucky win?
Pesky Schumacher (who has nothing to do with this topic btw) breaking off his front wing and then winning races - what can I say. Or that it didn't happen, but cool story bro.
Yeah, I have to agree here, no idea what Johnson is comparing here. Schumacher overcooked a corner that ultimately cost him 4 seconds or something, I am unsure how this is compared as a racing ending error... What does this even mean "he deserves to DNF that race too?"? What does a small corner outing "deserve" a DNF? I am genuinely confused.
A race ending error. Something I’ve never heard anybody ever use before when it does not end a drivers race. Surely a race ending error, ends your race. We do not need conjecture, guess work or anything like that is not needed in this case.

A.J.
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:37 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by A.J. »

F1Tyrant wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:18 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:43 pm
I simply said I expect more mistakes from Hamilton if the cars are roughly equal and he gets pushed.
I know you've admitted this is conjecture but since 2014, Hamilton has performed very well in crunch situations.

2016: Would have won the last five races without his infamous engine failure
2017: Extremely consistent after Singapore
2018: Excellent second half of the season

If anything, I expect once Verstappen falters that Hamilton will unleash a storm of performance to crush Verstappen as he did to Vettel. Verstappen will prove his greatness to withstand the panther and come out on top.
And I'm not denying that Hamilton has been consistent - he, however, has not been put under a prolonged spell of sustained pressure for how many ever years now. If we look at 2016, I actually think it was Rosberg who came out looking better when it comes to handling pressure - not botching his starts and doing exactly what he needed to do to win the championship at the end.

His performances do tend to get better in the second half of the season, but I want to see how he fares against someone cut from a tougher cloth than Vettel and won't simply be pushed around.

A.J.
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:37 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by A.J. »

Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:41 pm
Siao7 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:03 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:01 pm
Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:59 am
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:30 am
Since there are about 2-3 comments saying the same thing (Tufty/Johnson/ATH) - I did not make the original comment; I'm only trying to rationalize how mikey may have come up with the number.

As for the incidents themselves - wasn't Hamilton a lap down in Imola (genuinely asking, can't remember) prior to the red flag? In any case, it was a race ending error, so any points there should count as luck from that point on.

For Baku - I agree that the brake magic incident would likely not have happened in isolation without the red flag (might not have, doesn't necessarily mean wouldn't have) - however, this doesn't change the fact that Verstappen lost 26 points to Hamilton all things considered. Using the butterfly effect we can argue about every single incident and point swing that has ever happened - the reality is that Verstappen lost a guaranteed race win and a likely point for the fastest lap due to no mistake of his own, while Hamilton lost out on a possible 18-25 points due to his own mistake.

This is without considering that his tyre had a 7 cm cut that Pirelli found later which might have resulted in a DNF for him (which ironically would have been a better result for him because he would at least have a legitimate excuse and fan sympathy for scoring 0 points).
Going off track and through the gravel is racing ending error and deserves a 0 point finish? That makes Schumacher epic Hungary 1998 victory look a lot different, he deserves to DNF that race too? A lucky win?
Pesky Schumacher (who has nothing to do with this topic btw) breaking off his front wing and then winning races - what can I say. Or that it didn't happen, but cool story bro.
Yeah, I have to agree here, no idea what Johnson is comparing here. Schumacher overcooked a corner that ultimately cost him 4 seconds or something, I am unsure how this is compared as a racing ending error... What does this even mean "he deserves to DNF that race too?"? What does a small corner outing "deserve" a DNF? I am genuinely confused.
A race ending error. Something I’ve never heard anybody ever use before when it does not end a drivers race. Surely a race ending error, ends your race. We do not need conjecture, guess work or anything like that is not needed in this case.
Going off track and breaking your front wing is in most cases a race-ending error - you know exactly what that means, and you know exactly the game you're trying to play here :)

As others have already pointed out to you, even without ending his race he would likely finish outside the top 10 in Imola, had he not gotten lucky again. The original argument about how many points Hamilton gained due to good fortune stands, without needing to introduce red herrings about what Schumacher did or did not do 20+ years ago.

KingVoid
Posts: 3304
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2015 7:54 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by KingVoid »

F1Tyrant wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:18 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:43 pm
I simply said I expect more mistakes from Hamilton if the cars are roughly equal and he gets pushed.
I know you've admitted this is conjecture but since 2014, Hamilton has performed very well in crunch situations.

2016: Would have won the last five races without his infamous engine failure
2017: Extremely consistent after Singapore
2018: Excellent second half of the season

If anything, I expect once Verstappen falters that Hamilton will unleash a storm of performance to crush Verstappen as he did to Vettel. Verstappen will prove his greatness to withstand the panther and come out on top.
The bold is incorrect, Rosberg won at Suzuka.

Anyway, the fundamental difference between 2016-2018 and 2021 is that Hamilton always knew he was better than Rosberg and Vettel. I don’t believe he has the same confidence regarding Verstappen. Then again, we will see.

Siao7
Posts: 9471
Joined: Tue May 05, 2009 11:31 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Siao7 »

Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:41 pm
Siao7 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:03 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:01 pm
Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:59 am
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:30 am
Since there are about 2-3 comments saying the same thing (Tufty/Johnson/ATH) - I did not make the original comment; I'm only trying to rationalize how mikey may have come up with the number.

As for the incidents themselves - wasn't Hamilton a lap down in Imola (genuinely asking, can't remember) prior to the red flag? In any case, it was a race ending error, so any points there should count as luck from that point on.

For Baku - I agree that the brake magic incident would likely not have happened in isolation without the red flag (might not have, doesn't necessarily mean wouldn't have) - however, this doesn't change the fact that Verstappen lost 26 points to Hamilton all things considered. Using the butterfly effect we can argue about every single incident and point swing that has ever happened - the reality is that Verstappen lost a guaranteed race win and a likely point for the fastest lap due to no mistake of his own, while Hamilton lost out on a possible 18-25 points due to his own mistake.

This is without considering that his tyre had a 7 cm cut that Pirelli found later which might have resulted in a DNF for him (which ironically would have been a better result for him because he would at least have a legitimate excuse and fan sympathy for scoring 0 points).
Going off track and through the gravel is racing ending error and deserves a 0 point finish? That makes Schumacher epic Hungary 1998 victory look a lot different, he deserves to DNF that race too? A lucky win?
Pesky Schumacher (who has nothing to do with this topic btw) breaking off his front wing and then winning races - what can I say. Or that it didn't happen, but cool story bro.
Yeah, I have to agree here, no idea what Johnson is comparing here. Schumacher overcooked a corner that ultimately cost him 4 seconds or something, I am unsure how this is compared as a racing ending error... What does this even mean "he deserves to DNF that race too?"? What does a small corner outing "deserve" a DNF? I am genuinely confused.
A race ending error. Something I’ve never heard anybody ever use before when it does not end a drivers race. Surely a race ending error, ends your race. We do not need conjecture, guess work or anything like that is not needed in this case.
Ok, I see what you mean now. I guess it is what tootsie wrote earlier on, having read the comments now.

I think I understand what AJ is saying, that going off road like that normally would be a race ending error (either by beaching it or by falling so far behind that your race is effectively over). But the 1998 wasn't a similar incident, you can't compare a little out to pretty much stopping and being stationary for some time. That's what I objected to with my comment and sorry for the misunderstanding.

User avatar
F1Tyrant
Posts: 2505
Joined: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:27 pm
Location: UK

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1Tyrant »

A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:10 pm
If we look at 2016, I actually think it was Rosberg who came out looking better when it comes to handling pressure - not botching his starts and doing exactly what he needed to do to win the championship at the end.
Hamilton's efforts to win 2016 was thwarted as much by poor luck with reliability as it was by pressure mistakes. The bad starts compounded his misery because disproportionate mechanical upsets had put him under the cosh rather than anything Rosberg had done.
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:10 pm
...but I want to see how he fares against someone cut from a tougher cloth than Vettel and won't simply be pushed around.
The irony being that after 2010 and 2012, nobody considered Vettel weak. He clinched both titles under immense pressure while Hamilton faded for one reason or another.

Has Hamilton faced anyone in his league? No. Could Verstappen be that man? Yes.
OVERRATED LEGENDS RACING

User avatar
F1Tyrant
Posts: 2505
Joined: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:27 pm
Location: UK

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by F1Tyrant »

KingVoid wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:17 pm
The bold is incorrect, Rosberg won at Suzuka.
D'oh! Forgot Suzuka was the final nail.
KingVoid wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:17 pm
Anyway, the fundamental difference between 2016-2018 and 2021 is that Hamilton always knew he was better than Rosberg and Vettel. I don’t believe he has the same confidence regarding Verstappen.
I suppose Hamilton did consider himself better but I feel those runs of form was the smell of blood rather than boosted by his sense of superiority.
OVERRATED LEGENDS RACING

User avatar
Johnson
Posts: 1795
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:20 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:14 pm
Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:41 pm
Siao7 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:03 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:01 pm
Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:59 am


Going off track and through the gravel is racing ending error and deserves a 0 point finish? That makes Schumacher epic Hungary 1998 victory look a lot different, he deserves to DNF that race too? A lucky win?
Pesky Schumacher (who has nothing to do with this topic btw) breaking off his front wing and then winning races - what can I say. Or that it didn't happen, but cool story bro.
Yeah, I have to agree here, no idea what Johnson is comparing here. Schumacher overcooked a corner that ultimately cost him 4 seconds or something, I am unsure how this is compared as a racing ending error... What does this even mean "he deserves to DNF that race too?"? What does a small corner outing "deserve" a DNF? I am genuinely confused.
A race ending error. Something I’ve never heard anybody ever use before when it does not end a drivers race. Surely a race ending error, ends your race. We do not need conjecture, guess work or anything like that is not needed in this case.
Going off track and breaking your front wing is in most cases a race-ending error - you know exactly what that means, and you know exactly the game you're trying to play here :)

As others have already pointed out to you, even without ending his race he would likely finish outside the top 10 in Imola, had he not gotten lucky again. The original argument about how many points Hamilton gained due to good fortune stands, without needing to introduce red herrings about what Schumacher did or did not do 20+ years ago.
The person that said 50 points retracted that saying they miscalculated.
Race ending errors end races to me, we will have to disagree on that. You should rewatch Imola, Hamilton would have been around P12 with no red flag. Right around Alonso and chasing cars he was 1.5 seconds a lap quicker than. P6 was the most likely result with fastest lap.

pokerman
Posts: 37551
Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by pokerman »

F1Tyrant wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:36 pm
I'm curious if there is much Hamilton can do in his own power to reclaim 'driver of the season' accolade. Verstappen has clearly been the better driver of the two after 6 rounds.

Would it take Hamilton beating Verstappen in a car that seems marginally inferior? Or does Verstappen have to lose his cool and make more unforced errors than Hamilton.
I believe you just answered your own question, early doors Hamilton was in front because he was perceived to have won a race in an inferior car, so a bit more of that or Max making mistakes.
Lewis Hamilton #44

World Drivers Titles: 7 (1st)
Grand Prix Wins: 99 (1st)
Pole Positions: 100 (1st)
Podiums: 172 (1st)


PF1 Pick 10 Competition
2014: Champion

User avatar
Johnson
Posts: 1795
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:20 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:10 pm
F1Tyrant wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:18 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:43 pm
I simply said I expect more mistakes from Hamilton if the cars are roughly equal and he gets pushed.
I know you've admitted this is conjecture but since 2014, Hamilton has performed very well in crunch situations.

2016: Would have won the last five races without his infamous engine failure
2017: Extremely consistent after Singapore
2018: Excellent second half of the season

If anything, I expect once Verstappen falters that Hamilton will unleash a storm of performance to crush Verstappen as he did to Vettel. Verstappen will prove his greatness to withstand the panther and come out on top.
And I'm not denying that Hamilton has been consistent - he, however, has not been put under a prolonged spell of sustained pressure for how many ever years now. If we look at 2016, I actually think it was Rosberg who came out looking better when it comes to handling pressure - not botching his starts and doing exactly what he needed to do to win the championship at the end.

His performances do tend to get better in the second half of the season, but I want to see how he fares against someone cut from a tougher cloth than Vettel and won't simply be pushed around.
If you ignore him bottling it in USA and being saved by the safety car (under which he pitted) and the spin in Brazil, which I think you might describe as a race ending error. Lucky Nico stayed out the wall. Fortunate to take P2 that day as Red Bull completely blew the strategy. Mexico qualifying too, as he said himself, the pressure got to him.

A weak end and mid season in which he won 1 race in 8.

A.J.
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:37 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by A.J. »

Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:55 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:14 pm
Johnson wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:41 pm
Siao7 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 1:03 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:01 pm


Pesky Schumacher (who has nothing to do with this topic btw) breaking off his front wing and then winning races - what can I say. Or that it didn't happen, but cool story bro.
Yeah, I have to agree here, no idea what Johnson is comparing here. Schumacher overcooked a corner that ultimately cost him 4 seconds or something, I am unsure how this is compared as a racing ending error... What does this even mean "he deserves to DNF that race too?"? What does a small corner outing "deserve" a DNF? I am genuinely confused.
A race ending error. Something I’ve never heard anybody ever use before when it does not end a drivers race. Surely a race ending error, ends your race. We do not need conjecture, guess work or anything like that is not needed in this case.
Going off track and breaking your front wing is in most cases a race-ending error - you know exactly what that means, and you know exactly the game you're trying to play here :)

As others have already pointed out to you, even without ending his race he would likely finish outside the top 10 in Imola, had he not gotten lucky again. The original argument about how many points Hamilton gained due to good fortune stands, without needing to introduce red herrings about what Schumacher did or did not do 20+ years ago.
The person that said 50 points retracted that saying they miscalculated.
Race ending errors end races to me, we will have to disagree on that. You should rewatch Imola, Hamilton would have been around P12 with no red flag. Right around Alonso and chasing cars he was 1.5 seconds a lap quicker than. P6 was the most likely result with fastest lap.
I will leave this here for you, since you seem to have missed this comment:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:47 am
He was 9th and then he will have had a much slower lap than everyone else if not for the red flag, followed by his 38 second pit stop. All things considered, he likely will have come out in 15th or 14th. And I think only he will have only recovered to the bottom end of the top 10.

User avatar
Johnson
Posts: 1795
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2013 1:20 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Johnson »

I did my own numbers, why rely on somebody else?
That withstanding, Hogweed has Hamilton in the lower points. Where exactly Hogweed?

j man
Posts: 3646
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2011 8:48 pm
Location: UK

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by j man »

F1Tyrant wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:36 pm
I'm curious if there is much Hamilton can do in his own power to reclaim 'driver of the season' accolade. Verstappen has clearly been the better driver of the two after 6 rounds.

Would it take Hamilton beating Verstappen in a car that seems marginally inferior? Or does Verstappen have to lose his cool and make more unforced errors than Hamilton.
Many people thought Alonso was the driver of the season in 2010. As long as you ace the second half of the year, you can make as many boneheaded mistakes as you want in the first half.

Rockie
Posts: 2495
Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2013 11:13 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Rockie »

j man wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 5:21 pm
F1Tyrant wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:36 pm
I'm curious if there is much Hamilton can do in his own power to reclaim 'driver of the season' accolade. Verstappen has clearly been the better driver of the two after 6 rounds.

Would it take Hamilton beating Verstappen in a car that seems marginally inferior? Or does Verstappen have to lose his cool and make more unforced errors than Hamilton.
Many people thought Alonso was the driver of the season in 2010. As long as you ace the second half of the year, you can make as many boneheaded mistakes as you want in the first half.
Exactly Vettel got the moniker crash kid in Spa '10 but Alonso had an almighty howler that took him out of that race but Vettel still finished.

pokerman
Posts: 37551
Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by pokerman »

j man wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 5:21 pm
F1Tyrant wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 12:36 pm
I'm curious if there is much Hamilton can do in his own power to reclaim 'driver of the season' accolade. Verstappen has clearly been the better driver of the two after 6 rounds.

Would it take Hamilton beating Verstappen in a car that seems marginally inferior? Or does Verstappen have to lose his cool and make more unforced errors than Hamilton.
Many people thought Alonso was the driver of the season in 2010. As long as you ace the second half of the year, you can make as many boneheaded mistakes as you want in the first half.
I would be guessing that the season wasn't being valuated from day one like we are doing this season, then you're kind of left with an end of season overview.
Lewis Hamilton #44

World Drivers Titles: 7 (1st)
Grand Prix Wins: 99 (1st)
Pole Positions: 100 (1st)
Podiums: 172 (1st)


PF1 Pick 10 Competition
2014: Champion

Yeboah24
Posts: 178
Joined: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:09 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Yeboah24 »

A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:30 am


For Baku - I agree that the brake magic incident would likely not have happened in isolation without the red flag (might not have, doesn't necessarily mean wouldn't have)
What kind of logic are you using that leads you to believe the possibility existed in which under normal driving conditions brake magic issue could have occured.

I think its very obvious it was lewis starting procedure and fluke timing of the correction required for perez coming across

It wouldnt have happened.

A.J.
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:37 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by A.J. »

Yeboah24 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:26 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:30 am


For Baku - I agree that the brake magic incident would likely not have happened in isolation without the red flag (might not have, doesn't necessarily mean wouldn't have)
What kind of logic are you using that leads you to believe the possibility existed in which under normal driving conditions brake magic issue could have occured.

I think its very obvious it was lewis starting procedure and fluke timing of the correction required for perez coming across

It wouldnt have happened.
It's likely it wouldn't have happened, yes - but they use this system also for safety car restarts, and I couldn't possibly be guaranteeing that it wouldn't have happened. Nobody expected a driver to press the speed limiter on the straight, and yet Heikki did it in 2008 during the race. Nobody expected someone to run into the back of a driver stopped at the end of the pitlane - sometimes unexpected things happen, and there is no way to say with certainty that they won't. They are unlikely to happen, that's all one can say.

User avatar
Tufty
Posts: 2490
Joined: Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:33 pm
Location: Colwyn Bay, North Wales

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Tufty »

A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:47 pm
Yeboah24 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:26 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:30 am


For Baku - I agree that the brake magic incident would likely not have happened in isolation without the red flag (might not have, doesn't necessarily mean wouldn't have)
What kind of logic are you using that leads you to believe the possibility existed in which under normal driving conditions brake magic issue could have occured.

I think its very obvious it was lewis starting procedure and fluke timing of the correction required for perez coming across

It wouldnt have happened.
It's likely it wouldn't have happened, yes - but they use this system also for safety car restarts, and I couldn't possibly be guaranteeing that it wouldn't have happened. Nobody expected a driver to press the speed limiter on the straight, and yet Heikki did it in 2008 during the race. Nobody expected someone to run into the back of a driver stopped at the end of the pitlane - sometimes unexpected things happen, and there is no way to say with certainty that they won't. They are unlikely to happen, that's all one can say.
Do they? I hadn't heard that, where did you get it from? From what I've read it's only really suited to the formation lap, due presumably to the stationary time while the field catches up.
Anyone in or near North Wales interested in an RC car racing tournament?

User avatar
Mercedes-Benz
Posts: 1121
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:02 am
Location: India

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Mercedes-Benz »

I voted for 3rd option. I think Max is ready so with a little bit of luck he will be WC this year. Mercedes will win in Constructors because they were very strong in Spain and that means their car should be strong in most races. Perez has only had 1 good qualifying so far. So my guess is Bottas will beat him. Also since Singapore has be cancelled plays into their hands. If there is no Mexico or Brazil then both Hamilton and Mercedes will have even more advantage as RBR generally do well on those tracks. But either way it should be close for both championship.
Last edited by Mercedes-Benz on Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sir Stirling Moss "Quite frankly, Kimi Raikkonen is the fastest driver in the world"

A.J.
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:37 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by A.J. »

Tufty wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:19 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:47 pm
Yeboah24 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:26 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:30 am


For Baku - I agree that the brake magic incident would likely not have happened in isolation without the red flag (might not have, doesn't necessarily mean wouldn't have)
What kind of logic are you using that leads you to believe the possibility existed in which under normal driving conditions brake magic issue could have occured.

I think its very obvious it was lewis starting procedure and fluke timing of the correction required for perez coming across

It wouldnt have happened.
It's likely it wouldn't have happened, yes - but they use this system also for safety car restarts, and I couldn't possibly be guaranteeing that it wouldn't have happened. Nobody expected a driver to press the speed limiter on the straight, and yet Heikki did it in 2008 during the race. Nobody expected someone to run into the back of a driver stopped at the end of the pitlane - sometimes unexpected things happen, and there is no way to say with certainty that they won't. They are unlikely to happen, that's all one can say.
Do they? I hadn't heard that, where did you get it from? From what I've read it's only really suited to the formation lap, due presumably to the stationary time while the field catches up.
I heard it on one of the non-English post race analysis. The F1 site itself also mentions this:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... CE8FX.html

It is not a race setting and is only used on warm-up laps or behind the Safety Car.
Last edited by A.J. on Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:41 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Alienturnedhuman
Posts: 4357
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2003 9:39 pm

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:22 am
Tufty wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:19 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:47 pm
Yeboah24 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:26 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:30 am


For Baku - I agree that the brake magic incident would likely not have happened in isolation without the red flag (might not have, doesn't necessarily mean wouldn't have)
What kind of logic are you using that leads you to believe the possibility existed in which under normal driving conditions brake magic issue could have occured.

I think its very obvious it was lewis starting procedure and fluke timing of the correction required for perez coming across

It wouldnt have happened.
It's likely it wouldn't have happened, yes - but they use this system also for safety car restarts, and I couldn't possibly be guaranteeing that it wouldn't have happened. Nobody expected a driver to press the speed limiter on the straight, and yet Heikki did it in 2008 during the race. Nobody expected someone to run into the back of a driver stopped at the end of the pitlane - sometimes unexpected things happen, and there is no way to say with certainty that they won't. They are unlikely to happen, that's all one can say.
Do they? I hadn't heard that, where did you get it from? From what I've read it's only really suited to the formation lap, due presumably to the stationary time while the field catches up.
I heard it on one of the non-English race post race analysis. The F1 site itself also mentions this:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... CE8FX.html

It is not a race setting and is only used on warm-up laps or behind the Safety Car.
The purpose of the brake magic is for fast warming of the brakes during safety car restarts or at race starts but that's totally irrelevant. This incident only happened due to Hamilton's hand positions during a standing start, combined with the sudden change of direction at the moment he had to move his hand from the clutch to the wheel during the upshift. It was such a fluke combination of events that would not and cannot occur during a safety car restart.

A.J.
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:37 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by A.J. »

Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:00 am
A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:22 am
Tufty wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:19 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:47 pm
Yeboah24 wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:26 pm


What kind of logic are you using that leads you to believe the possibility existed in which under normal driving conditions brake magic issue could have occured.

I think its very obvious it was lewis starting procedure and fluke timing of the correction required for perez coming across

It wouldnt have happened.
It's likely it wouldn't have happened, yes - but they use this system also for safety car restarts, and I couldn't possibly be guaranteeing that it wouldn't have happened. Nobody expected a driver to press the speed limiter on the straight, and yet Heikki did it in 2008 during the race. Nobody expected someone to run into the back of a driver stopped at the end of the pitlane - sometimes unexpected things happen, and there is no way to say with certainty that they won't. They are unlikely to happen, that's all one can say.
Do they? I hadn't heard that, where did you get it from? From what I've read it's only really suited to the formation lap, due presumably to the stationary time while the field catches up.
I heard it on one of the non-English race post race analysis. The F1 site itself also mentions this:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... CE8FX.html

It is not a race setting and is only used on warm-up laps or behind the Safety Car.
The purpose of the brake magic is for fast warming of the brakes during safety car restarts or at race starts but that's totally irrelevant. This incident only happened due to Hamilton's hand positions during a standing start, combined with the sudden change of direction at the moment he had to move his hand from the clutch to the wheel during the upshift. It was such a fluke combination of events that would not and cannot occur during a safety car restart.
I am aware of what the purpose of the switch is - the article explaining this is right there in my comment that you quoted.

Why this (or any particular incident) occurred is always due to a particular set of circumstances, unique or otherwise. Said (or similar) incident might occur due to the same or a completely different set of circumstances. As I said in the earliest comment, it is likely the incident wouldn't happen under a different set of circumstances - one can even say they are 99.99% (or some arbitrary % number to define confidence level for the sake of conversation) sure it won't happen, but the number will never be 100%.

To say something about this incident here with absolute certainty ("would not and cannot") is simply not possible - something I would expect an analytical person such as yourself to be well aware of.

User avatar
Alienturnedhuman
Posts: 4357
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2003 9:39 pm

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:34 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:00 am
A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:22 am
Tufty wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:19 pm
A.J. wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:47 pm


It's likely it wouldn't have happened, yes - but they use this system also for safety car restarts, and I couldn't possibly be guaranteeing that it wouldn't have happened. Nobody expected a driver to press the speed limiter on the straight, and yet Heikki did it in 2008 during the race. Nobody expected someone to run into the back of a driver stopped at the end of the pitlane - sometimes unexpected things happen, and there is no way to say with certainty that they won't. They are unlikely to happen, that's all one can say.
Do they? I hadn't heard that, where did you get it from? From what I've read it's only really suited to the formation lap, due presumably to the stationary time while the field catches up.
I heard it on one of the non-English race post race analysis. The F1 site itself also mentions this:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... CE8FX.html

It is not a race setting and is only used on warm-up laps or behind the Safety Car.
The purpose of the brake magic is for fast warming of the brakes during safety car restarts or at race starts but that's totally irrelevant. This incident only happened due to Hamilton's hand positions during a standing start, combined with the sudden change of direction at the moment he had to move his hand from the clutch to the wheel during the upshift. It was such a fluke combination of events that would not and cannot occur during a safety car restart.
I am aware of what the purpose of the switch is - the article explaining this is right there in my comment that you quoted.

Why this (or any particular incident) occurred is always due to a particular set of circumstances, unique or otherwise. Said (or similar) incident might occur due to the same or a completely different set of circumstances. As I said in the earliest comment, it is likely the incident wouldn't happen under a different set of circumstances - one can even say they are 99.99% (or some arbitrary % number to define confidence level for the sake of conversation) sure it won't happen, but the number will never be 100%.

To say something about this incident here with absolute certainty ("would not and cannot") is simply not possible - something I would expect an analytical person such as yourself to be well aware of.
You are really stretching here - by this definition of absolutes we can say that Max could have accidentally hit the neutral button while on the main straight because it's technically possible to happen. Or that Christian Horner spilled his coffee on the radio and the bubbling noises sounded like "Max, retire the car now" - if we are opening up the door to things that do not have a literal zero probability to occur we can pretty much make up any race result we want.

The circumstances for the brake magic button getting hit by accident were entirely down to the unique set of events that happened at the start. If you ran it 100 other times it would not happen, and we know that because Hamilton has done well over 100 race starts in the hybrid era of Mercedes and it never happened.

I don't know if you are being ignorant here or if you are knowingly trying to construct a logical fallacy but it's pointless to continue debating this because you have made it clear that this will continue to be the tune that you sing.

A.J.
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:37 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by A.J. »

Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:54 am
A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:34 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:00 am
A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:22 am
Tufty wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:19 pm


Do they? I hadn't heard that, where did you get it from? From what I've read it's only really suited to the formation lap, due presumably to the stationary time while the field catches up.
I heard it on one of the non-English race post race analysis. The F1 site itself also mentions this:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... CE8FX.html

It is not a race setting and is only used on warm-up laps or behind the Safety Car.
The purpose of the brake magic is for fast warming of the brakes during safety car restarts or at race starts but that's totally irrelevant. This incident only happened due to Hamilton's hand positions during a standing start, combined with the sudden change of direction at the moment he had to move his hand from the clutch to the wheel during the upshift. It was such a fluke combination of events that would not and cannot occur during a safety car restart.
I am aware of what the purpose of the switch is - the article explaining this is right there in my comment that you quoted.

Why this (or any particular incident) occurred is always due to a particular set of circumstances, unique or otherwise. Said (or similar) incident might occur due to the same or a completely different set of circumstances. As I said in the earliest comment, it is likely the incident wouldn't happen under a different set of circumstances - one can even say they are 99.99% (or some arbitrary % number to define confidence level for the sake of conversation) sure it won't happen, but the number will never be 100%.

To say something about this incident here with absolute certainty ("would not and cannot") is simply not possible - something I would expect an analytical person such as yourself to be well aware of.
You are really stretching here - by this definition of absolutes we can say that Max could have accidentally hit the neutral button while on the main straight because it's technically possible to happen. Or that Christian Horner spilled his coffee on the radio and the bubbling noises sounded like "Max, retire the car now" - if we are opening up the door to things that do not have a literal zero probability to occur we can pretty much make up any race result we want.

The circumstances for the brake magic button getting hit by accident were entirely down to the unique set of events that happened at the start. If you ran it 100 other times it would not happen, and we know that because Hamilton has done well over 100 race starts in the hybrid era of Mercedes and it never happened.

I don't know if you are being ignorant here or if you are knowingly trying to construct a logical fallacy but it's pointless to continue debating this because you have made it clear that this will continue to be the tune that you sing.
Eh? I have not said it would happen again - this is not a 'what-if' conversation, and I don't even know what you're taking exception to here really. Of course this is something that is not a regular occurrence (and nobody is arguing that), but the fact that it happened is simply because it was possible for it to happen (ergo, saying it "cannot and would not happen" is a fallacy) - just as it is possible for it to happen again. Not likely, but possible - one can rule this out as an exceptional occurrence, but not outside the realms of possibility.

I didn't think there is a need for me to explain this basic premise, but here we are - although I am in complete agreement with you that it is pointless to continue debating this.

User avatar
Alienturnedhuman
Posts: 4357
Joined: Thu Feb 13, 2003 9:39 pm

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:37 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:54 am
A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:34 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:00 am
A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:22 am


I heard it on one of the non-English race post race analysis. The F1 site itself also mentions this:
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... CE8FX.html

It is not a race setting and is only used on warm-up laps or behind the Safety Car.
The purpose of the brake magic is for fast warming of the brakes during safety car restarts or at race starts but that's totally irrelevant. This incident only happened due to Hamilton's hand positions during a standing start, combined with the sudden change of direction at the moment he had to move his hand from the clutch to the wheel during the upshift. It was such a fluke combination of events that would not and cannot occur during a safety car restart.
I am aware of what the purpose of the switch is - the article explaining this is right there in my comment that you quoted.

Why this (or any particular incident) occurred is always due to a particular set of circumstances, unique or otherwise. Said (or similar) incident might occur due to the same or a completely different set of circumstances. As I said in the earliest comment, it is likely the incident wouldn't happen under a different set of circumstances - one can even say they are 99.99% (or some arbitrary % number to define confidence level for the sake of conversation) sure it won't happen, but the number will never be 100%.

To say something about this incident here with absolute certainty ("would not and cannot") is simply not possible - something I would expect an analytical person such as yourself to be well aware of.
You are really stretching here - by this definition of absolutes we can say that Max could have accidentally hit the neutral button while on the main straight because it's technically possible to happen. Or that Christian Horner spilled his coffee on the radio and the bubbling noises sounded like "Max, retire the car now" - if we are opening up the door to things that do not have a literal zero probability to occur we can pretty much make up any race result we want.

The circumstances for the brake magic button getting hit by accident were entirely down to the unique set of events that happened at the start. If you ran it 100 other times it would not happen, and we know that because Hamilton has done well over 100 race starts in the hybrid era of Mercedes and it never happened.

I don't know if you are being ignorant here or if you are knowingly trying to construct a logical fallacy but it's pointless to continue debating this because you have made it clear that this will continue to be the tune that you sing.
Eh? I have not said it would happen again - this is not a 'what-if' conversation, and I don't even know what you're taking exception to here really. Of course this is something that is not a regular occurrence (and nobody is arguing that), but the fact that it happened is simply because it was possible for it to happen (ergo, saying it "cannot and would not happen" is a fallacy) - just as it is possible for it to happen again. Not likely, but possible - one can rule this out as an exceptional occurrence, but not outside the realms of possibility.

I didn't think there is a need for me to explain this basic premise, but here we are - although I am in complete agreement with you that it is pointless to continue debating this.
You are 100% doing a 'what-if' conversation. You have been strongly making the assertion that had Max not crashed out of the race that Hamilton hitting the brake magic switch on again behind the safety car was a possibility that was worthy of factoring in. That's the literal definition of ridiculous F1 what-ifs. They take another plausible route and then suggest some freak incident occurs that radically changes the debate - it's why I created the whole dinosaur meme in the first place because after the Abu Dhabi race, a poster put forwards a ridiculous twist on the events that would have made Hamilton WDC that year.

If we are going to get into probabilities, then in the last 15 races, Max has suffered two debris related tyre failures, Hamilton has had one brake magic incident. This means the probability that Max is careless driving through debris on the track is a more credible hypothesis than Hamilton hitting his brake magic switch again under any circumstances (disclaimer: I don't actually think that either of these are credible or fair assessment) Verstappen has also had two lap one incidences in those races making the probability of a Verstappen related non scoring incident four times as likely as a Hamilton one, based on their 15 most recent race events.

The point of the what if meme is not saying that people can't discuss what-if events, it's criticism ludicrous what if rationales, whereby people go down multiple fluke probability branches that were never credible, to create outcomes they want rather than outcomes that merit discussion.

And suggesting that Hamilton would somehow suffer the same fluke brake switch off, under entirely different events, is doing just that.

A.J.
Posts: 1148
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 11:37 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by A.J. »

Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:11 am
A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:37 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:54 am
A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:34 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:00 am

The purpose of the brake magic is for fast warming of the brakes during safety car restarts or at race starts but that's totally irrelevant. This incident only happened due to Hamilton's hand positions during a standing start, combined with the sudden change of direction at the moment he had to move his hand from the clutch to the wheel during the upshift. It was such a fluke combination of events that would not and cannot occur during a safety car restart.
I am aware of what the purpose of the switch is - the article explaining this is right there in my comment that you quoted.

Why this (or any particular incident) occurred is always due to a particular set of circumstances, unique or otherwise. Said (or similar) incident might occur due to the same or a completely different set of circumstances. As I said in the earliest comment, it is likely the incident wouldn't happen under a different set of circumstances - one can even say they are 99.99% (or some arbitrary % number to define confidence level for the sake of conversation) sure it won't happen, but the number will never be 100%.

To say something about this incident here with absolute certainty ("would not and cannot") is simply not possible - something I would expect an analytical person such as yourself to be well aware of.
You are really stretching here - by this definition of absolutes we can say that Max could have accidentally hit the neutral button while on the main straight because it's technically possible to happen. Or that Christian Horner spilled his coffee on the radio and the bubbling noises sounded like "Max, retire the car now" - if we are opening up the door to things that do not have a literal zero probability to occur we can pretty much make up any race result we want.

The circumstances for the brake magic button getting hit by accident were entirely down to the unique set of events that happened at the start. If you ran it 100 other times it would not happen, and we know that because Hamilton has done well over 100 race starts in the hybrid era of Mercedes and it never happened.

I don't know if you are being ignorant here or if you are knowingly trying to construct a logical fallacy but it's pointless to continue debating this because you have made it clear that this will continue to be the tune that you sing.
Eh? I have not said it would happen again - this is not a 'what-if' conversation, and I don't even know what you're taking exception to here really. Of course this is something that is not a regular occurrence (and nobody is arguing that), but the fact that it happened is simply because it was possible for it to happen (ergo, saying it "cannot and would not happen" is a fallacy) - just as it is possible for it to happen again. Not likely, but possible - one can rule this out as an exceptional occurrence, but not outside the realms of possibility.

I didn't think there is a need for me to explain this basic premise, but here we are - although I am in complete agreement with you that it is pointless to continue debating this.
You are 100% doing a 'what-if' conversation. You have been strongly making the assertion that had Max not crashed out of the race that Hamilton hitting the brake magic switch on again behind the safety car was a possibility that was worthy of factoring in.
I'm not, and I see no point in addressing the rest of your comment since you fail to understand that.

Now let's go back to the stated position of this being an otiose thing to discuss.

WHoff78
Posts: 917
Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2013 11:01 pm

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by WHoff78 »

Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:11 am
A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:37 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:54 am
A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:34 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:00 am

The purpose of the brake magic is for fast warming of the brakes during safety car restarts or at race starts but that's totally irrelevant. This incident only happened due to Hamilton's hand positions during a standing start, combined with the sudden change of direction at the moment he had to move his hand from the clutch to the wheel during the upshift. It was such a fluke combination of events that would not and cannot occur during a safety car restart.
I am aware of what the purpose of the switch is - the article explaining this is right there in my comment that you quoted.

Why this (or any particular incident) occurred is always due to a particular set of circumstances, unique or otherwise. Said (or similar) incident might occur due to the same or a completely different set of circumstances. As I said in the earliest comment, it is likely the incident wouldn't happen under a different set of circumstances - one can even say they are 99.99% (or some arbitrary % number to define confidence level for the sake of conversation) sure it won't happen, but the number will never be 100%.

To say something about this incident here with absolute certainty ("would not and cannot") is simply not possible - something I would expect an analytical person such as yourself to be well aware of.
You are really stretching here - by this definition of absolutes we can say that Max could have accidentally hit the neutral button while on the main straight because it's technically possible to happen. Or that Christian Horner spilled his coffee on the radio and the bubbling noises sounded like "Max, retire the car now" - if we are opening up the door to things that do not have a literal zero probability to occur we can pretty much make up any race result we want.

The circumstances for the brake magic button getting hit by accident were entirely down to the unique set of events that happened at the start. If you ran it 100 other times it would not happen, and we know that because Hamilton has done well over 100 race starts in the hybrid era of Mercedes and it never happened.

I don't know if you are being ignorant here or if you are knowingly trying to construct a logical fallacy but it's pointless to continue debating this because you have made it clear that this will continue to be the tune that you sing.
Eh? I have not said it would happen again - this is not a 'what-if' conversation, and I don't even know what you're taking exception to here really. Of course this is something that is not a regular occurrence (and nobody is arguing that), but the fact that it happened is simply because it was possible for it to happen (ergo, saying it "cannot and would not happen" is a fallacy) - just as it is possible for it to happen again. Not likely, but possible - one can rule this out as an exceptional occurrence, but not outside the realms of possibility.

I didn't think there is a need for me to explain this basic premise, but here we are - although I am in complete agreement with you that it is pointless to continue debating this.
You are 100% doing a 'what-if' conversation. You have been strongly making the assertion that had Max not crashed out of the race that Hamilton hitting the brake magic switch on again behind the safety car was a possibility that was worthy of factoring in. That's the literal definition of ridiculous F1 what-ifs. They take another plausible route and then suggest some freak incident occurs that radically changes the debate - it's why I created the whole dinosaur meme in the first place because after the Abu Dhabi race, a poster put forwards a ridiculous twist on the events that would have made Hamilton WDC that year.

If we are going to get into probabilities, then in the last 15 races, Max has suffered two debris related tyre failures, Hamilton has had one brake magic incident. This means the probability that Max is careless driving through debris on the track is a more credible hypothesis than Hamilton hitting his brake magic switch again under any circumstances (disclaimer: I don't actually think that either of these are credible or fair assessment) Verstappen has also had two lap one incidences in those races making the probability of a Verstappen related non scoring incident four times as likely as a Hamilton one, based on their 15 most recent race events.

The point of the what if meme is not saying that people can't discuss what-if events, it's criticism ludicrous what if rationales, whereby people go down multiple fluke probability branches that were never credible, to create outcomes they want rather than outcomes that merit discussion.

And suggesting that Hamilton would somehow suffer the same fluke brake switch off, under entirely different events, is doing just that.
:thumbup: ...nothing more to be said.

Yeboah24
Posts: 178
Joined: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:09 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Yeboah24 »

A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:32 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:11 am
A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:37 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:54 am
A.J. wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:34 am


I am aware of what the purpose of the switch is - the article explaining this is right there in my comment that you quoted.

Why this (or any particular incident) occurred is always due to a particular set of circumstances, unique or otherwise. Said (or similar) incident might occur due to the same or a completely different set of circumstances. As I said in the earliest comment, it is likely the incident wouldn't happen under a different set of circumstances - one can even say they are 99.99% (or some arbitrary % number to define confidence level for the sake of conversation) sure it won't happen, but the number will never be 100%.

To say something about this incident here with absolute certainty ("would not and cannot") is simply not possible - something I would expect an analytical person such as yourself to be well aware of.
You are really stretching here - by this definition of absolutes we can say that Max could have accidentally hit the neutral button while on the main straight because it's technically possible to happen. Or that Christian Horner spilled his coffee on the radio and the bubbling noises sounded like "Max, retire the car now" - if we are opening up the door to things that do not have a literal zero probability to occur we can pretty much make up any race result we want.

The circumstances for the brake magic button getting hit by accident were entirely down to the unique set of events that happened at the start. If you ran it 100 other times it would not happen, and we know that because Hamilton has done well over 100 race starts in the hybrid era of Mercedes and it never happened.

I don't know if you are being ignorant here or if you are knowingly trying to construct a logical fallacy but it's pointless to continue debating this because you have made it clear that this will continue to be the tune that you sing.
Eh? I have not said it would happen again - this is not a 'what-if' conversation, and I don't even know what you're taking exception to here really. Of course this is something that is not a regular occurrence (and nobody is arguing that), but the fact that it happened is simply because it was possible for it to happen (ergo, saying it "cannot and would not happen" is a fallacy) - just as it is possible for it to happen again. Not likely, but possible - one can rule this out as an exceptional occurrence, but not outside the realms of possibility.

I didn't think there is a need for me to explain this basic premise, but here we are - although I am in complete agreement with you that it is pointless to continue debating this.
You are 100% doing a 'what-if' conversation. You have been strongly making the assertion that had Max not crashed out of the race that Hamilton hitting the brake magic switch on again behind the safety car was a possibility that was worthy of factoring in.
I'm not, and I see no point in addressing the rest of your comment since you fail to understand that.

Now let's go back to the stated position of this being an otiose thing to discuss.
AJ your earlier comments in this thread support the notion that its a reasonable position to take to say that without max's blowout he would have gained 26 points on hamilton after Baku (net). I.e. if one was accounting for bad luck throughout a season this would count as max's bad luck costing him a net 26 point in the race.

You supported this notion by saying you cant guarantee brake magic wouldnt have happened with or without the restart caused by max blowout.

Might be worth clarifying then, in your view did lewis get lucky to the tune of 1) not falling 11 points further back in the points stack (max 1st lewis 3rd in baku) or 2) not falling 26 points further back in the points stack (max 1st, lewis last)

Delphic
Posts: 35
Joined: Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:41 pm

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Delphic »

New member here. I have introduced myself in the New members introduction thread.

I think Red Bull will take both the titles. Max and Checo as a team will perform better than Lewis + Bottas, that is, lets say if Lewis wins a race or two, I believe it is more likely from this point on for Checo to score more points than Bottas.

The drivers championship will be close but I think Max will squeak out in the end. Max is driving better than Lewis this year, obviously he has a much better car compared to the RBs of previous years. Checo getting the hang of the car will keep Lewis honest. So, in a way Red Bull can strategize with their two drivers against one. Unless Bottas steps up. Thats why Mercedes have to start paying attention to Bottas more than they have now. Or if they feel Bottas is a lost cause, then get Russell or someone who can take the fight to Checo and the Red Bull.

Lewis lost that great opportunity to score points in Baku and get a double digit lead. I dont think Max will be unlucky again, and for Lewis to get comfortable he needs a race like Monaco, except the roles are reversed, where Lewis wins and Max is outside the top 5.

mikeyg123
Posts: 19350
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:13 pm

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by mikeyg123 »

Delphic wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:59 pm
New member here. I have introduced myself in the New members introduction thread.

I think Red Bull will take both the titles. Max and Checo as a team will perform better than Lewis + Bottas, that is, lets say if Lewis wins a race or two, I believe it is more likely from this point on for Checo to score more points than Bottas.

The drivers championship will be close but I think Max will squeak out in the end. Max is driving better than Lewis this year, obviously he has a much better car compared to the RBs of previous years. Checo getting the hang of the car will keep Lewis honest. So, in a way Red Bull can strategize with their two drivers against one. Unless Bottas steps up. Thats why Mercedes have to start paying attention to Bottas more than they have now. Or if they feel Bottas is a lost cause, then get Russell or someone who can take the fight to Checo and the Red Bull.

Lewis lost that great opportunity to score points in Baku and get a double digit lead. I dont think Max will be unlucky again, and for Lewis to get comfortable he needs a race like Monaco, except the roles are reversed, where Lewis wins and Max is outside the top 5.
Hi :thumbup:

I agree with you that Bottas potentially going rogue could make things harder for Mercedes.

JN23
Posts: 3581
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:14 am

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by JN23 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:33 pm
Delphic wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:59 pm
New member here. I have introduced myself in the New members introduction thread.

I think Red Bull will take both the titles. Max and Checo as a team will perform better than Lewis + Bottas, that is, lets say if Lewis wins a race or two, I believe it is more likely from this point on for Checo to score more points than Bottas.

The drivers championship will be close but I think Max will squeak out in the end. Max is driving better than Lewis this year, obviously he has a much better car compared to the RBs of previous years. Checo getting the hang of the car will keep Lewis honest. So, in a way Red Bull can strategize with their two drivers against one. Unless Bottas steps up. Thats why Mercedes have to start paying attention to Bottas more than they have now. Or if they feel Bottas is a lost cause, then get Russell or someone who can take the fight to Checo and the Red Bull.

Lewis lost that great opportunity to score points in Baku and get a double digit lead. I dont think Max will be unlucky again, and for Lewis to get comfortable he needs a race like Monaco, except the roles are reversed, where Lewis wins and Max is outside the top 5.
Hi :thumbup:

I agree with you that Bottas potentially going rogue could make things harder for Mercedes.
Would be a bit ironic if their wingman not being wingmanny enough costs them one or both championships.

User avatar
Tufty
Posts: 2490
Joined: Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:33 pm
Location: Colwyn Bay, North Wales

Re: Who will win the Championships?

Post by Tufty »

JN23 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:37 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:33 pm
Delphic wrote:
Thu Jun 10, 2021 8:59 pm
New member here. I have introduced myself in the New members introduction thread.

I think Red Bull will take both the titles. Max and Checo as a team will perform better than Lewis + Bottas, that is, lets say if Lewis wins a race or two, I believe it is more likely from this point on for Checo to score more points than Bottas.

The drivers championship will be close but I think Max will squeak out in the end. Max is driving better than Lewis this year, obviously he has a much better car compared to the RBs of previous years. Checo getting the hang of the car will keep Lewis honest. So, in a way Red Bull can strategize with their two drivers against one. Unless Bottas steps up. Thats why Mercedes have to start paying attention to Bottas more than they have now. Or if they feel Bottas is a lost cause, then get Russell or someone who can take the fight to Checo and the Red Bull.

Lewis lost that great opportunity to score points in Baku and get a double digit lead. I dont think Max will be unlucky again, and for Lewis to get comfortable he needs a race like Monaco, except the roles are reversed, where Lewis wins and Max is outside the top 5.
Hi :thumbup:

I agree with you that Bottas potentially going rogue could make things harder for Mercedes.
Would be a bit ironic if their wingman not being wingmanny enough costs them one or both championships.
Not unprecedented though, arguably that's the role Lewis was expected to play in 2007
Anyone in or near North Wales interested in an RC car racing tournament?

Post Reply