Who will end their career with the most wins?

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Most wins

Vettel, 39 wins, age 27
112
50%
Alonso, 32 wins, age 33
5
2%
Hamilton, 27 wins, age 29
109
48%
 
Total votes: 226

pokerman
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by pokerman »

Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:Number of races might help the youngsters but as mentioned the BC won't. If it works as intended and we get a more competitive F1 then those records will stand for all time because it could be so unlikely that a team stays dominant long enough for one driver in the future to benefit to the extent needed to rack up that many stats in short order.

The more we get closer to spec racing the harder it will be to get a sniff on any record set in the pre BC era so it really depends on how successful the BC is in closing the competition up and how far in the future the bosses go in the pursuit of a close field.

If it works like they want then 5 race wins in a year could be an exceptional season and a title win in a field where 5 teams,10 cars and 10 drivers can all compete for the win on any given race weekend so the guy would then need 20 years of repeating that season to get close, it's just very unlikely no matter how good the driver was.

If the BC works to that extent then future F1 fans in say 30+years might consider a pre budget cap F1 in much the same way tennis fans view their Sport in having different defined eras because they are so vastly different. But if it doesn't work and we still get extended periods of domination like Lotus,Ferrari's and Mercedes then yeah the more races and longer careers will help someone get the record eventually.
The counter to the budget cap argument is that the BC will even the field more and then it will be more driver dependent. Hamilton has won 10 a year in the Merc era, but he was winning small numbers a year during the Red Bull era. At his current win rate, Hamilton will win 100 races before his 280th race, but for the sake of nice maths, we'll say 300. That's a 1 in 3 win rate. That's 7 races in a 21 race calendar and with equal cars I would expect the top drivers to be hitting that.

Max is on 6 races already. With a 21 race calendar until he is 38 - that's 368 races left until he retires (including the 11 this year) - he needs to win 23% of his remaining races to equal Schumacher. 27% to get to 100. Both sound achievable. Not easy, not guaranteed, but far from far-fetched. And that assumes the race calendar doesn't expand further to 25 race seasons, which is very likely.

For the budget cap to get us to seasons with >5 wins being unlikely, it also assumes the budget cap will be a complete leveller - this is also unlikely. I still expect that there will be top teams, it's just that they won't be as dominant as now - that the mid field teams will be able to get on the podium without a fluke, and occasionally steal wins. The best teams will attract the best designers and the best drivers. Driver salaries are not included in the budget cap, and ultimately the top designers in F1 want to win.

It's also worth considering that in the last 30 years of F1, the WDC winning 6 or less races was a rare event. Vettel did it couple of times (2012/2010), Button(2009), Hamilton(2008), and Kimi (2007). We then had Schumacher in 2003, Hakkinen in 1999 and that's it. And it's only been in the last 15 years when the calendar has regularly been above 17 races.
My understanding is that the budget cap may bring the teams closer together but you are still going to have your top teams, the budget cap will not bring things closer to were we have basically spec racing.
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Podiums: 172 (1st)


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sandman1347
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by sandman1347 »

pokerman wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:Number of races might help the youngsters but as mentioned the BC won't. If it works as intended and we get a more competitive F1 then those records will stand for all time because it could be so unlikely that a team stays dominant long enough for one driver in the future to benefit to the extent needed to rack up that many stats in short order.

The more we get closer to spec racing the harder it will be to get a sniff on any record set in the pre BC era so it really depends on how successful the BC is in closing the competition up and how far in the future the bosses go in the pursuit of a close field.

If it works like they want then 5 race wins in a year could be an exceptional season and a title win in a field where 5 teams,10 cars and 10 drivers can all compete for the win on any given race weekend so the guy would then need 20 years of repeating that season to get close, it's just very unlikely no matter how good the driver was.

If the BC works to that extent then future F1 fans in say 30+years might consider a pre budget cap F1 in much the same way tennis fans view their Sport in having different defined eras because they are so vastly different. But if it doesn't work and we still get extended periods of domination like Lotus,Ferrari's and Mercedes then yeah the more races and longer careers will help someone get the record eventually.
The counter to the budget cap argument is that the BC will even the field more and then it will be more driver dependent. Hamilton has won 10 a year in the Merc era, but he was winning small numbers a year during the Red Bull era. At his current win rate, Hamilton will win 100 races before his 280th race, but for the sake of nice maths, we'll say 300. That's a 1 in 3 win rate. That's 7 races in a 21 race calendar and with equal cars I would expect the top drivers to be hitting that.

Max is on 6 races already. With a 21 race calendar until he is 38 - that's 368 races left until he retires (including the 11 this year) - he needs to win 23% of his remaining races to equal Schumacher. 27% to get to 100. Both sound achievable. Not easy, not guaranteed, but far from far-fetched. And that assumes the race calendar doesn't expand further to 25 race seasons, which is very likely.

For the budget cap to get us to seasons with >5 wins being unlikely, it also assumes the budget cap will be a complete leveller - this is also unlikely. I still expect that there will be top teams, it's just that they won't be as dominant as now - that the mid field teams will be able to get on the podium without a fluke, and occasionally steal wins. The best teams will attract the best designers and the best drivers. Driver salaries are not included in the budget cap, and ultimately the top designers in F1 want to win.

It's also worth considering that in the last 30 years of F1, the WDC winning 6 or less races was a rare event. Vettel did it couple of times (2012/2010), Button(2009), Hamilton(2008), and Kimi (2007). We then had Schumacher in 2003, Hakkinen in 1999 and that's it. And it's only been in the last 15 years when the calendar has regularly been above 17 races.
My understanding is that the budget cap may bring the teams closer together but you are still going to have your top teams, the budget cap will not bring things closer to were we have basically spec racing.
That is the most likely and most reasonable expectation. The way I see it, the budget cap will not bring teams like RP and Haas up to par with Mercedes and Ferrari but it will bring teams like McLaren and Renault up to par with Mercedes and Ferrari. That should mean that there is more competition between teams but, as ATH correctly suggested, it will also give drivers greater influence over their own outcomes.

If the cars are more evenly matched and if there is less capacity for the top team to distance itself from the pack, the drivers will have more of a chance to make the difference. The best example of this would be to look at MotoGP. This is a non-spec series with a lot of factory prototype machines competing against each other. The series has achieved a balance though, and the riders are just as important as the bikes. Marc Marquez is currently dominating the series primarily because of his ability as a rider. There is currently a bigger gap between him and the next best rider than there is between the top 2-3 bikes. If F1 could ever become that kind of environment then it would be possible for a driver to rack up huge numbers just on the strength of their own ability; without needing the car to be the best.

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Lotus49
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Lotus49 »

Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:Number of races might help the youngsters but as mentioned the BC won't. If it works as intended and we get a more competitive F1 then those records will stand for all time because it could be so unlikely that a team stays dominant long enough for one driver in the future to benefit to the extent needed to rack up that many stats in short order.

The more we get closer to spec racing the harder it will be to get a sniff on any record set in the pre BC era so it really depends on how successful the BC is in closing the competition up and how far in the future the bosses go in the pursuit of a close field.

If it works like they want then 5 race wins in a year could be an exceptional season and a title win in a field where 5 teams,10 cars and 10 drivers can all compete for the win on any given race weekend so the guy would then need 20 years of repeating that season to get close, it's just very unlikely no matter how good the driver was.

If the BC works to that extent then future F1 fans in say 30+years might consider a pre budget cap F1 in much the same way tennis fans view their Sport in having different defined eras because they are so vastly different. But if it doesn't work and we still get extended periods of domination like Lotus,Ferrari's and Mercedes then yeah the more races and longer careers will help someone get the record eventually.
The counter to the budget cap argument is that the BC will even the field more and then it will be more driver dependent. Hamilton has won 10 a year in the Merc era, but he was winning small numbers a year during the Red Bull era. At his current win rate, Hamilton will win 100 races before his 280th race, but for the sake of nice maths, we'll say 300. That's a 1 in 3 win rate. That's 7 races in a 21 race calendar and with equal cars I would expect the top drivers to be hitting that.

Max is on 6 races already. With a 21 race calendar until he is 38 - that's 368 races left until he retires (including the 11 this year) - he needs to win 23% of his remaining races to equal Schumacher. 27% to get to 100. Both sound achievable. Not easy, not guaranteed, but far from far-fetched. And that assumes the race calendar doesn't expand further to 25 race seasons, which is very likely.

For the budget cap to get us to seasons with >5 wins being unlikely, it also assumes the budget cap will be a complete leveller - this is also unlikely. I still expect that there will be top teams, it's just that they won't be as dominant as now - that the mid field teams will be able to get on the podium without a fluke, and occasionally steal wins. The best teams will attract the best designers and the best drivers. Driver salaries are not included in the budget cap, and ultimately the top designers in F1 want to win.

It's also worth considering that in the last 30 years of F1, the WDC winning 6 or less races was a rare event. Vettel did it couple of times (2012/2010), Button(2009), Hamilton(2008), and Kimi (2007). We then had Schumacher in 2003, Hakkinen in 1999 and that's it. And it's only been in the last 15 years when the calendar has regularly been above 17 races.
Being more driver dependant won't help one driver rack up stats unless it's a particularly week field and he's easily the best though right? Take the last 5 or so years and assume a field where Lewis,Alonso,Max,Dan,Button,Rosberg and Seb were all in cars that could win each weekend and I struggle to see any of them get to 7 because of natural ups and downs in driver form, track weaknesses, a one off special quali from guys out side that list like a Bottas or Hulk even. A star driver in a weak era though and yeah I could see that but it would need a particularly weak era though imo.

I get the point about the effectiveness of the BC though, it would all depend on its actual effectiveness in creating what Brawn and LM want in more close competition and there'll still be the best designers going to the best teams but the teams still shy from putting two top drivers together so if the driver becomes a bigger influence on the overall competitiveness then that should mean more teams end up being competitive too because they're not all in one or two teams.

I've obviously no idea how effective the BC will be though, it was just a hypothetical best case scenario of having at least 5 competitive teams with a star driver in each basically and what impact that could have in any driver setting future records. Without the double figure wins seasons or a particularly weak field I can't see it unless we still have dominant cars that can still absorb the dips in form, mistakes and weak tracks and conditions for even the best driver across a season.

Also just on those seasons where we had less than 6 wins, they were all seasons we had multiple competitive teams so I think that backs up the point that if the BC has the effect they want it too it will be very hard for a driver to win 7 or more in a season.
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by pokerman »

sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Lotus49 wrote:Number of races might help the youngsters but as mentioned the BC won't. If it works as intended and we get a more competitive F1 then those records will stand for all time because it could be so unlikely that a team stays dominant long enough for one driver in the future to benefit to the extent needed to rack up that many stats in short order.

The more we get closer to spec racing the harder it will be to get a sniff on any record set in the pre BC era so it really depends on how successful the BC is in closing the competition up and how far in the future the bosses go in the pursuit of a close field.

If it works like they want then 5 race wins in a year could be an exceptional season and a title win in a field where 5 teams,10 cars and 10 drivers can all compete for the win on any given race weekend so the guy would then need 20 years of repeating that season to get close, it's just very unlikely no matter how good the driver was.

If the BC works to that extent then future F1 fans in say 30+years might consider a pre budget cap F1 in much the same way tennis fans view their Sport in having different defined eras because they are so vastly different. But if it doesn't work and we still get extended periods of domination like Lotus,Ferrari's and Mercedes then yeah the more races and longer careers will help someone get the record eventually.
The counter to the budget cap argument is that the BC will even the field more and then it will be more driver dependent. Hamilton has won 10 a year in the Merc era, but he was winning small numbers a year during the Red Bull era. At his current win rate, Hamilton will win 100 races before his 280th race, but for the sake of nice maths, we'll say 300. That's a 1 in 3 win rate. That's 7 races in a 21 race calendar and with equal cars I would expect the top drivers to be hitting that.

Max is on 6 races already. With a 21 race calendar until he is 38 - that's 368 races left until he retires (including the 11 this year) - he needs to win 23% of his remaining races to equal Schumacher. 27% to get to 100. Both sound achievable. Not easy, not guaranteed, but far from far-fetched. And that assumes the race calendar doesn't expand further to 25 race seasons, which is very likely.

For the budget cap to get us to seasons with >5 wins being unlikely, it also assumes the budget cap will be a complete leveller - this is also unlikely. I still expect that there will be top teams, it's just that they won't be as dominant as now - that the mid field teams will be able to get on the podium without a fluke, and occasionally steal wins. The best teams will attract the best designers and the best drivers. Driver salaries are not included in the budget cap, and ultimately the top designers in F1 want to win.

It's also worth considering that in the last 30 years of F1, the WDC winning 6 or less races was a rare event. Vettel did it couple of times (2012/2010), Button(2009), Hamilton(2008), and Kimi (2007). We then had Schumacher in 2003, Hakkinen in 1999 and that's it. And it's only been in the last 15 years when the calendar has regularly been above 17 races.
My understanding is that the budget cap may bring the teams closer together but you are still going to have your top teams, the budget cap will not bring things closer to were we have basically spec racing.
That is the most likely and most reasonable expectation. The way I see it, the budget cap will not bring teams like RP and Haas up to par with Mercedes and Ferrari but it will bring teams like McLaren and Renault up to par with Mercedes and Ferrari. That should mean that there is more competition between teams but, as ATH correctly suggested, it will also give drivers greater influence over their own outcomes.

If the cars are more evenly matched and if there is less capacity for the top team to distance itself from the pack, the drivers will have more of a chance to make the difference. The best example of this would be to look at MotoGP. This is a non-spec series with a lot of factory prototype machines competing against each other. The series has achieved a balance though, and the riders are just as important as the bikes. Marc Marquez is currently dominating the series primarily because of his ability as a rider. There is currently a bigger gap between him and the next best rider than there is between the top 2-3 bikes. If F1 could ever become that kind of environment then it would be possible for a driver to rack up huge numbers just on the strength of their own ability; without needing the car to be the best.
Yeah I see no reason why drivers won't still be able to rack up a considerable number of wins per season in the future unless they start introducing such things as reverse grids?
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DOLOMITE
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by DOLOMITE »

After Hungary '19

1. Hamilton = 97
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 74
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Verstappen (M) = 30
9. Stewart = 27
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
12. Fangio = 24
13. Raikkonen = 24
14. Piquet = 23
14. Rosberg (N) = 23
16. Hill (D) = 22
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Moss = 16
19. Button = 15
20. Brabham = 14
20. Fittipaldi = 14
20. Hill (G) = 14
23. Ascari = 13
23. Coulthard = 13
25. Ricciardo = 13
26. Andretti = 12
26. Jones = 12
26. Reutemann = 12
29. Barrichello = 11
29. Massa = 11
29. Villeneuve (J) = 11
32. Bottas = 10


Max started so young but has a wins from starts ratio higher than Raikkonen, Villeneuve or Button. If makes good career choices who know where he may end up.
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DOLOMITE
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by DOLOMITE »

Charles joins the game!

After Monza:

1. Hamilton = 96
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 73
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Verstappen (M) = 29
9. Stewart = 27
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
12. Fangio = 24
13. Raikkonen = 24
14. Piquet = 23
14. Rosberg (N) = 23
16. Hill (D) = 22
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Leclerc = 19
19. Moss = 16
20. Button = 15
"I'd rather lose a race going fast enough to win it, than win one going slow enough to lose it".
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Mort Canard
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Mort Canard »

DOLOMITE wrote:Charles joins the game!

After Monza:

1. Hamilton = 96
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 73
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Verstappen (M) = 29
9. Stewart = 27
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
12. Fangio = 24
13. Raikkonen = 24
14. Piquet = 23
14. Rosberg (N) = 23
16. Hill (D) = 22
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Leclerc = 19
19. Moss = 16
20. Button = 15

Sebastian Vettel is currently on 52 wins with no victories in over a year. Where do you get the twisted math projections to put him at 73 race wins before he retires???? At this rate it looks to me like he will be very lucky to retire with 60 wins.

I can't help but believe that any more wins for Sebastian are going to be extremely hard won.

Max still has only racked up 7 wins. If he is going to be the driver of a generation he better start putting up numbers. Charles Leclerc could easily outpace Max before the Verstappen train can gather momentum.
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Alienturnedhuman
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

Mort Canard wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:Charles joins the game!

After Monza:

1. Hamilton = 96
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 73
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Verstappen (M) = 29
9. Stewart = 27
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
12. Fangio = 24
13. Raikkonen = 24
14. Piquet = 23
14. Rosberg (N) = 23
16. Hill (D) = 22
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Leclerc = 19
19. Moss = 16
20. Button = 15

Sebastian Vettel is currently on 52 wins with no victories in over a year. Where do you get the twisted math projections to put him at 73 race wins before he retires???? At this rate it looks to me like he will be very lucky to retire with 60 wins.

I can't help but believe that any more wins for Sebastian are going to be extremely hard won.

Max still has only racked up 7 wins. If he is going to be the driver of a generation he better start putting up numbers. Charles Leclerc could easily outpace Max before the Verstappen train can gather momentum.
This is not a prediction model, it's a win rate model extrapolated until an estimated retirement time for each driver.

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DOLOMITE
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by DOLOMITE »

After Mexico '19

1. Hamilton = 98
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 74
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Mansell = 31
8. Verstappen (M) = 28
9. Stewart = 27
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
12. Fangio = 24
13. Raikkonen = 24
14. Piquet = 23
14. Rosberg (N) = 23
16. Hill (D) = 22
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Leclerc = 17
19. Moss = 16
20. Button = 15
21. Brabham = 14
21. Hill (G) = 14
21. Fittipaldi = 14
24. Ascari = 13
24. Coulthard = 13
26. Ricciardo = 13
27. Bottas = 12
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-Stirling Moss

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DOLOMITE
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by DOLOMITE »

At the end of the '19 season:

1. Hamilton = 98
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 73
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Alonso = 32
7. Verstappen (M) = 31
8. Mansell = 31
9. Stewart = 27
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
12. Fangio = 24
13. Raikkonen = 24
14. Piquet = 23
14. Rosberg (N) = 23
16. Hill (D) = 22
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Leclerc = 16
19. Moss = 16
20. Button = 15
21. Brabham = 14
21. Hill (G) = 14
21. Fittipaldi = 14
24. Bottas = 14
25. Ascari = 13
25. Coulthard = 13
27. Ricciardo = 12
"I'd rather lose a race going fast enough to win it, than win one going slow enough to lose it".
-Stirling Moss

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Invade
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Invade »

Things have really slowed down for Vettel. Even with the opportunity he's struggled to be prolific.

Barring some pretty bad fortune, I can't imagine that Max will end up with less than 50 wins. It's gonna be fascinating to see what happens in the driver market for 2021 and who strikes it lucky with opportunity.

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Invade
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Invade »

KingVoid wrote:Vettel and Hamilton are going to pad their stats until 2020. After that, the likes of Verstappen and Norris will take over.

Interesting prediction regarding Norris.

So we have one more year of stat padding in store for Vettel and Hamilton. Since your post, dated April 7th 2018, Vettel has won 5 races and Hamilton 22 races. Vettel has added 7 pole positions and Hamilton 15 pole positions.

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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Teddy007 »

sandman1347 wrote: That is the most likely and most reasonable expectation. The way I see it, the budget cap will not bring teams like RP and Haas up to par with Mercedes and Ferrari but it will bring teams like McLaren and Renault up to par with Mercedes and Ferrari. That should mean that there is more competition between teams but, as ATH correctly suggested, it will also give drivers greater influence over their own outcomes.
I think the budget cap won't do half of what you say. With all the changes they've made over the years to the rules.. what has it exactly done? Made teams a bit closer within the old qualifying %.. that's it.

We no longer see train after train but I'd say that's more to do with DRS.

The nature of the sport itself hasn't changed. One team can dominate or it becomes track specific. A team can lose a championship with poor mistakes etc. Not much has really changed in 30 years.

The complainers till moan about the 'boring' races but like any sporting event.. you can have boring times..

The more they change.. the more it stays the same. Mclaren hasn't closed the gap thanks to the regs or budget caps, they've done it through hard work. Their reliability has improved. They no longer have an engine which is brand spanking new with Alonso retired before the get go and Button struggling down in last place and being overlapped far too quickly because the car/engine was shockingly bad.

RBR closed the gap or shall I say, their engines haven't been blowing up every other race. Ferrari self imploded and Merc walked away with both titles. None of which would have changed with a budget cap. This whole "closing the gap" won't make a difference. They will spend the money on the best drivers/engineers. Would a budget cap help Williams move up the field? No. Will it save the reliability of Renault? Or stop the Haas drivers having problems? No.

In 10 years time I'll be saying it again. Nothing will really change with F1 unless they make radical unneeded changes like making all the cars the same. And that's when the sport could very well lose viewers because it's no longer the pinnacle in technical/ motorsport.

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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

If we take the last three seasons as a rolling average - Hamilton has won 1 in 2 races and Vettel has won 1 in 5.5 races.

This means that at the end of next season, assuming this model continues - which given the regulation stability and focus on 2021, it's the most likely outcome - Hamilton will win 11 more and Vettel will win 4 more, taking them to 95 wins and 57 wins each.

The question is then what happens after 2020, assuming both stay in the sport. Given that Hamilton will probably do at least one more 3 year stint after 2020, that gives him another 66 races in the sport after 2020. If Vettel continues for two more seasons after Hamilton, that gives him another 110 races. Of those 110 races, Vettel needs to win 38 of them just to catch up, and one more to go ahead. That leaves 72 races, of which he has to match whatever Hamilton wins. If Hamilton keeps up his 50% strike rate, that means that Vettel need to win 33 more races to match - so 72 races in total, Hamilton having 33 of the, leaving 5 races in for other people. If Hamilton wins 25% of the races, that's 16 more, so Vettel would need 55 races, leaving 39 for everyone else.

Put simply, in all probability, the answer to the question in this thread is almost certainly Hamilton now, even if Vettel got his hands on a car with the advantage of the RB9, W05 or FW14B, he doesn't have enough races in his career left to catch up.

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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by mikeyg123 »

Teddy007 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: That is the most likely and most reasonable expectation. The way I see it, the budget cap will not bring teams like RP and Haas up to par with Mercedes and Ferrari but it will bring teams like McLaren and Renault up to par with Mercedes and Ferrari. That should mean that there is more competition between teams but, as ATH correctly suggested, it will also give drivers greater influence over their own outcomes.
I think the budget cap won't do half of what you say. With all the changes they've made over the years to the rules.. what has it exactly done? Made teams a bit closer within the old qualifying %.. that's it.

We no longer see train after train but I'd say that's more to do with DRS.

The nature of the sport itself hasn't changed. One team can dominate or it becomes track specific. A team can lose a championship with poor mistakes etc. Not much has really changed in 30 years.

The complainers till moan about the 'boring' races but like any sporting event.. you can have boring times..

The more they change.. the more it stays the same. Mclaren hasn't closed the gap thanks to the regs or budget caps, they've done it through hard work. Their reliability has improved. They no longer have an engine which is brand spanking new with Alonso retired before the get go and Button struggling down in last place and being overlapped far too quickly because the car/engine was shockingly bad.

RBR closed the gap or shall I say, their engines haven't been blowing up every other race. Ferrari self imploded and Merc walked away with both titles. None of which would have changed with a budget cap. This whole "closing the gap" won't make a difference. They will spend the money on the best drivers/engineers. Would a budget cap help Williams move up the field? No. Will it save the reliability of Renault? Or stop the Haas drivers having problems? No.

In 10 years time I'll be saying it again. Nothing will really change with F1 unless they make radical unneeded changes like making all the cars the same. And that's when the sport could very well lose viewers because it's no longer the pinnacle in technical/ motorsport.
The current state of play regarding competitiveness is massively different from 10 years ago.

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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Herb »

Dolomite - for active drivers, would you mind including their current win count in brackets?

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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Invade »

Well on Oct 13 2018 I predicted that Hamilton will win ~100 races and Vettel ~75.

That Vettel prediction looks woeful now. Hamilton does look on course for 100 race wins, but who knows — if Mercedes are beasts in the now pushed back new era from 2022 onwards, maybe he'll make a mockery of that prediction and make up the difference that Vettel will likely fail to make up as to reach the combined ~175 wins.

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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Invade »

lamo wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:51 pm
This pole is now nearly 2 years old, when I started it we had

Vettel, 39 wins, age 27
Alonso, 32 wins, age 33
Hamilton, 27 wins, age 29

Now nearly 2 years on...

Vettel 42 wins, age 28 (29 in two weeks)
Alonso 32 wins, age (35 next month)
Hamilton 45 wins, age 31 (32 next january)

Did everyone expect the Mercedes steam roller to continue this long? I think both Hamilton and Vettel will probably go ahead of Prosts 51 wins and become 2nd and 3rd in the all time list. Also with 20 races per season, someone in the future can have a good go a Michaels record. 3 years in a dominant car and a weaker team mate could produce 50 wins! If Mercedes is as strong in 2017 then I see Hamilton probably retiring ahead of Vettel.
I couldn't help but LOL at this post from 2016! FOUR years later...

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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Schermerhorn »

Every new era tends to favour a new team. Who knows, maybe Ferrari will eventually get it right from 2022 onwards and Charlie LeClrec may go on to steamroll Hamilton's records.

Then again, this is Ferrari we're talking about. The self destruct button is never too far away....
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by tootsie323 »

Schermerhorn wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 11:18 am
Every new era tends to favour a new team. Who knows, maybe Ferrari will eventually get it right from 2022 onwards and Charlie LeClrec may go on to steamroll Hamilton's records.

Then again, this is Ferrari we're talking about. The self destruct button is never too far away....
I almost stopped reading at '... maybe Ferrari will eventually get it right..!'
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by pokerman »

I think Dolomite has given up on the thread, the question has been answered. :)
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Exediron »

I've rarely been more right about anything than I was when I voted for Hamilton way back in 2015! :D
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by mikeyg123 »

Maybe it's time for a new thread...

Verstappen
Leclerc
Norris
Russell

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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Exediron »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:01 am
Maybe it's time for a new thread...

Verstappen
Leclerc
Norris
Russell
Right now Norris is the one left out, with no clear path to a front-running car.
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Herb »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:01 am
Maybe it's time for a new thread...

Verstappen
Leclerc
Norris
Russell
Using Dolomite's model, Norris and Russel would end with 0 wins. So might need a year or two before including them!

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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by mikeyg123 »

Exediron wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:09 am
mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:01 am
Maybe it's time for a new thread...

Verstappen
Leclerc
Norris
Russell
Right now Norris is the one left out, with no clear path to a front-running car.
Only assuming Mercedes/Red Bull/Ferrari are the front running cars from 2022. Given that McLaren and Ferrari are competitive with each other now I'd say Norris path to a race winning car is no less clear than Leclerc's.

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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 6:56 pm
I've rarely been more right about anything than I was when I voted for Hamilton way back in 2015! :D
I voted Hamilton but I've a feeling it was further into his Merc career.
Last edited by pokerman on Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by pokerman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:01 am
Maybe it's time for a new thread...

Verstappen
Leclerc
Norris
Russell
Do you know how to do the poll?
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by DOLOMITE »

pokerman wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:23 pm
I think Dolomite has given up on the thread, the question has been answered. :)
just been mega busy, I'll update this tonight. Kimi playing havoc with my system - what retirement age to use?
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Exediron »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:36 am
Exediron wrote:
Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:09 am
Right now Norris is the one left out, with no clear path to a front-running car.
Only assuming Mercedes/Red Bull/Ferrari are the front running cars from 2022. Given that McLaren and Ferrari are competitive with each other now I'd say Norris path to a race winning car is no less clear than Leclerc's.
That's a fair point, and I did consider it after posting. I very much hope that McLaren is right up there with the others in the post-2022 F1 world, but my cynicism/experience tells me the status quo won't change as much as people think.

Max is the obvious choice, but if Russell gets into the Mercedes and they're still dominant it could be him. The lesson from Schumi and Hamilton (and Rosberg and Bottas) is that there is only one essential ingredient to climbing way up the win charts: a long run in a very good car.
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by DOLOMITE »

after Spain 2020:

1. Hamilton = 98
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 70
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Verstappen (M) = 33
7. Alonso = 32
8. Mansell = 31
9. Stewart = 27
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
12. Fangio = 24
13. Piquet = 23
13. Rosberg (N) = 23
15. Hill (D) = 22
16. Raikkonen = 21
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Moss = 16
19. Button = 15
20. Bottas = 15
21. Brabham = 14
21. Hill (G) = 14
21. Fittipaldi = 14
24. Leclerc = 14
25. Ascari = 13
25. Coulthard = 13
27. Andretti = 12
27. Reutemann = 12
27. Jones = 12
30. Ricciardo = 12

I've adjusted Raikkonen to assume this is his last season.

Vettel is really the anomoly here - we can safely assume that even if he stays in F1, wins are unlikley. As we don't know different I've had to assume the same as the others - retirement at age 37 with 20 race/season. Even if Vettel left now his 3rd place would remain as no other driver is predicted to pass 53 wins - a reminder of just what he has managed to achieve.
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Schermerhorn »

tootsie323 wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 11:29 am
Schermerhorn wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 11:18 am
Every new era tends to favour a new team. Who knows, maybe Ferrari will eventually get it right from 2022 onwards and Charlie LeClrec may go on to steamroll Hamilton's records.

Then again, this is Ferrari we're talking about. The self destruct button is never too far away....
I almost stopped reading at '... maybe Ferrari will eventually get it right..!'
LOL, I couldn't help but have a little dig in the following paragraph :lol:
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Schermerhorn »

DOLOMITE wrote:
Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:45 am
after Spain 2020:

1. Hamilton = 98
2. Schumacher = 91
3. Vettel = 70
4. Prost = 51
5. Senna = 41
6. Verstappen (M) = 33
7. Alonso = 32
8. Mansell = 31
9. Stewart = 27
10. Clark = 25
10. Lauda = 25
12. Fangio = 24
13. Piquet = 23
13. Rosberg (N) = 23
15. Hill (D) = 22
16. Raikkonen = 21
17. Hakkinen = 20
18. Moss = 16
19. Button = 15
20. Bottas = 15
21. Brabham = 14
21. Hill (G) = 14
21. Fittipaldi = 14
24. Leclerc = 14
25. Ascari = 13
25. Coulthard = 13
27. Andretti = 12
27. Reutemann = 12
27. Jones = 12
30. Ricciardo = 12

I've adjusted Raikkonen to assume this is his last season.

Vettel is really the anomoly here - we can safely assume that even if he stays in F1, wins are unlikley. As we don't know different I've had to assume the same as the others - retirement at age 37 with 20 race/season. Even if Vettel left now his 3rd place would remain as no other driver is predicted to pass 53 wins - a reminder of just what he has managed to achieve.
People can call Vettel overrated all they want but his achievements are still pretty mega. For what it's worth, I think he is a legendary driver and deserves his accomplishments. His operating window may have been narrow but he is still a Top Tier F1 driver.
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Exediron »

Schermerhorn wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:05 pm
People can call Vettel overrated all they want but his achievements are still pretty mega. For what it's worth, I think he is a legendary driver and deserves his accomplishments. His operating window may have been narrow but he is still a Top Tier F1 driver.
I don't think he's overrated anymore, but he was at a time. Back at the end of 2013, Vettel was viewed as clearly superior to Hamilton, finally having the body of work to be considered superior to Alonso, and in the conversation to be considered best of all time by the end of his career.

Knowing what we now know, that was not a realistic rating. But I think his current consensus rating -- similar to Piquet, a driver who accomplished a lot but was just a step behind the titans of his era -- is accurate.

I am not personally a believer in his operating window. I believe either Alonso or Hamilton would have beaten him in the 2010-2013 Red Bulls.
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:12 pm
Schermerhorn wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:05 pm
People can call Vettel overrated all they want but his achievements are still pretty mega. For what it's worth, I think he is a legendary driver and deserves his accomplishments. His operating window may have been narrow but he is still a Top Tier F1 driver.
I don't think he's overrated anymore, but he was at a time. Back at the end of 2013, Vettel was viewed as clearly superior to Hamilton, finally having the body of work to be considered superior to Alonso, and in the conversation to be considered best of all time by the end of his career.

Knowing what we now know, that was not a realistic rating. But I think his current consensus rating -- similar to Piquet, a driver who accomplished a lot but was just a step behind the titans of his era -- is accurate.

I am not personally a believer in his operating window. I believe either Alonso or Hamilton would have beaten him in the 2010-2013 Red Bulls.
Well they both tried to get into the 2010-2013 Red Bulls. :)

I think there is some credence to his small operating window, it just gets shown up more when teamed up with drivers he can't beat.
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:59 pm
I think there is some credence to his small operating window, it just gets shown up more when teamed up with drivers he can't beat.
Fair point. To be more precise, I do believe he has adaptability problems just like Kimi. What I don't believe (for either of them) is that they are the equal of someone like Hamilton even within that window.
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Schermerhorn »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:02 pm
pokerman wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:59 pm
I think there is some credence to his small operating window, it just gets shown up more when teamed up with drivers he can't beat.
Fair point. To be more precise, I do believe he has adaptability problems just like Kimi. What I don't believe (for either of them) is that they are the equal of someone like Hamilton even within that window.
Hamilton has had a lucky ride all of his F1 career and never really had to struggle or known true adversity. We dont know if he would have bootstrapped himself to the top like Alonso did.

Great driver and a front runner. But never had to overcome any resistance.

Just my opinion.
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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Invade »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:02 pm
pokerman wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:59 pm
I think there is some credence to his small operating window, it just gets shown up more when teamed up with drivers he can't beat.
Fair point. To be more precise, I do believe he has adaptability problems just like Kimi. What I don't believe (for either of them) is that they are the equal of someone like Hamilton even within that window.
Probably true. Of course, they could have beaten Hamilton over a season — not like it hasn't been done before — but in the long run I'd expect Hamilton to get the best of them regardless of how suited the conditions supposedly are to their driving styles. In Vettel's case it just seems that Hamilton is less error-prone and a notch quicker and in Kimi's case the work ethic likely lets him down regardless of any nonpareil pace he may have supposedly had during one phase of his career.

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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by mikeyg123 »

Schermerhorn wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:55 am
Exediron wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:02 pm
pokerman wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:59 pm
I think there is some credence to his small operating window, it just gets shown up more when teamed up with drivers he can't beat.
Fair point. To be more precise, I do believe he has adaptability problems just like Kimi. What I don't believe (for either of them) is that they are the equal of someone like Hamilton even within that window.
Hamilton has had a lucky ride all of his F1 career and never really had to struggle or known true adversity. We dont know if he would have bootstrapped himself to the top like Alonso did.

Great driver and a front runner. But never had to overcome any resistance.

Just my opinion.
I disagree. 2008 he won the championship without the best car and in 2010 he competed for the championship with a car that was probably 3rd best on average.

Has Vettel driven anything below 3rd best car (until now) since his STR days?

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Re: Who will end their career with the most wins?

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:24 am
Schermerhorn wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:55 am
Exediron wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:02 pm
pokerman wrote:
Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:59 pm
I think there is some credence to his small operating window, it just gets shown up more when teamed up with drivers he can't beat.
Fair point. To be more precise, I do believe he has adaptability problems just like Kimi. What I don't believe (for either of them) is that they are the equal of someone like Hamilton even within that window.
Hamilton has had a lucky ride all of his F1 career and never really had to struggle or known true adversity. We dont know if he would have bootstrapped himself to the top like Alonso did.

Great driver and a front runner. But never had to overcome any resistance.

Just my opinion.
I disagree. 2008 he won the championship without the best car and in 2010 he competed for the championship with a car that was probably 3rd best on average.

Has Vettel driven anything below 3rd best car (until now) since his STR days?
McLaren would have been 4th in the WCC in 2008 and 6th in 2009 if they had had two Heikkis driving the car.

But that's not even the real issue with what has been presented. The issue is the idea that Hamilton hasn't face adversity in his career, when what the is actually meant by the statement is that he hasn't driven a backmarker car in his career. Being pitted against Alonso in a rookie season is probably one of the biggest challenges - and as such adversity - in F1. It severely damaged the careers of Piquet, Vandoorne, and Grosjean. It dismantled the 3 years of progress an experienced Massa had made between 2006 and 2010, and didn't make Kimi look too fast. The only drivers who weren't humiliated by him since his last title were Button and rookie Hamilton, and Hamilton was the only one to match him.

But of course, that isn't driving a backmarker car, like the MP4-24 was in the first half of the season.

The reason this line is wheeled out, is because those making it know that it's a criteria Hamilton is very unlikely to ever meet. After winning a 7th title, Hamilton is not going to stay on the grid in anything other than a competitive car, and any team with a competitive seat will try to secure him if he's available. Unless he stays on at Mercedes and their 2022 car is a dog, he's going to be at the front. And even if that does happen, we can be fair confident that by the end of 2022 that car will be competing for podiums or wins. It won't be at the back for long.

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