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PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:44 pm 
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I cant see the UK response lasting long if the cases rise faster than in other countries. Pressure on the national health service is already a fairly common political argument, so I doubt Boris and co will want to be seen to be adding to it by not following what other countries are doing. Apparently they're going to announce a ban on mass gatherings next week.

Nothing on school closures yet but in the UK we have 2 weeks of school holidays for Easter coming up in 2 weeks time (might vary a little by region/school), so my theory is they're holding off as long as they can since they've already got a 'free' 2 weeks coming up anyway.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:13 pm 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
I cant see the UK response lasting long if the cases rise faster than in other countries. Pressure on the national health service is already a fairly common political argument, so I doubt Boris and co will want to be seen to be adding to it by not following what other countries are doing. Apparently they're going to announce a ban on mass gatherings next week.

Nothing on school closures yet but in the UK we have 2 weeks of school holidays for Easter coming up in 2 weeks time (might vary a little by region/school), so my theory is they're holding off as long as they can since they've already got a 'free' 2 weeks coming up anyway.


The plan is for cases in the UK to rise faster than in other countries. It's a very bold and brave move politically. I worry they won't have the nerve to follow it through for the reasons you outline. With the current plan the government will get an absolute kicking over the next 3-4 months but we could well be better off in the long term.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:47 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
tim3003 wrote:
j man wrote:
Here in the UK the government seems to have taken a different policy to most; delaying the spread rather than trying to isolate and stop it entirely. The thinking seems to be to isolate the vulnerable, slow down the spread to ensure that the health service is not overburdened so that the vulnerable people who do catch it can get the treatment they need, and otherwise allow it to spread around the general population in a controlled manner to create a "herd immunity". This is a new strain of virus that we have no immunity to currently and now that it exists it is not going to disappear, you can't kill it off by isolating it and even if we do stop this current outbreak it'll just come back again like seasonal flu and cold viruses do. Personally I believe the UK government has got this spot on, but without other countries taking the same approach I'm concerned we could end up with a global split between countries where the population has immunity to the virus and those where they don't because they went for the "lockdown and isolate" policy.

Let's not forget that this herd immunity approach is how we eradicated smallpox (although they did so with a vaccine); for now this new virus seems harmless enough to a healthy person that we can achieve the same outcome without one. At least that's what the UK government has decided, I hope they're right!



The problem with the herd immunity approach is that we start from almost zero as this is a new disease. Smallpox had been around for centuries. It will take several years of repeated epidemics - maybe on smaller scales, for immunity to build up. Doubtless a % of the population are immune already, but that won't stop the rest catching the disease because it's so contagious.

I think that the only effective govt approach is the Chinese one of total lockdown and sealing people in their homes. Banning mass gatherings or sporting events will help, but if you can catch it going to the pub or the shops the spread will go on. We in the democratic countries are not going to be able to stop coronavirus in my opinion. Even attempts to flatten the peak will have very little effect.

The UK approach is strange on several levels.

First it is contrary to the rest of the world which is very much going down the preventative route, including comparable economies such as in Europe and even the US (at a state level at least).

Second, herd immunity usually refers to a virus for which there is vaccine - such as small pox. Also the threshold is usually around 85%, although it can be as low as 75%. The 60% figure quoted is much lower than either of those. Scientific papers regarding herd immunity again study it from the perspective of one where there is vaccine. Once you hit the threshold for a population being vaccinated then it protects the herds from an outbreak among the non vaccinated.

The idea of cultivating a vaccine through the population developing a resistance from zero is unprecedented as a course of action and the implications are unknown. Another very important factor is that it is presently unknown if a long term resistance will be built up over time as the preliminary data coming out of China suggests that 15% of people who got better went on to get reinfected before the lockdown. Consequentially it is one hell of a gamble for the government to take when so little is known about the virus.

Thirdly, the lockdown approach has been proven to work. Wuhan has a population of 11 million, roughly the same as London. Hubei province (where Wuhan is located) has a population of 58 million, roughly the same as the UK, and the areas are similar too (185,000 km2 vs 240,000 km2)

Wuhan now has the epidemic under control there, with less than 0.1 million people infected. Johnson's strategy is to get 40 million people infected - 400 times higher than in China.

The lockdown approach has definitely been proven to work, I hear from sources within China that things are returning to normal over there, but the concern is that it's only a short term fix. If this behaves like other strains of flu virus then it's likely to mutate and come back again each year and we'll just end up in the same situation again. To use an old analogy they're potentially just kicking the can down the road.

I agree on the scale of the gamble that the UK government has taken with peoples' lives but ultimately the policy is not Boris Johnson's, it's come from his chief science and medical advisors. The WHO may have raised some legitimate concerns but at this stage it's one expert's opinion against another's and there are too many unknowns to really know who is correct. I am not an expert in this field by any means but I'm inclined to trust the UK's approach, I see the logic of it and it has come from someone who knows what they're talking about. My main concern is not so much the policy itself, it's that the we've gone our own way on this one; even if the UK's policy proves to be correct we'd have put the rest of the world at greater risk by not following what they have done.

Personally I care little for what Jeremy Hunt thinks, he may have been the UK's Health Minister but he is a career politician with no educational background in medicine and thus I wouldn't consider his opinion any more informed than mine.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:57 pm 
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China (and other countries who are trying the lock-down system) won't know how good it is until they let people from the locked down areas mix with the general population.

I wish them luck.

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PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:56 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:

The plan is for cases in the UK to rise faster than in other countries. It's a very bold and brave move politically. I worry they won't have the nerve to follow it through for the reasons you outline. With the current plan the government will get an absolute kicking over the next 3-4 months but we could well be better off in the long term.


Where do you get that plan from?

Since those suffering symptoms are now not being encouraged to report them, but simply to self-isolate, the notion of keeping an accurate count of them seems absurd. And it's already been suggested that despite the 800-odd official UK count, the real total could be 10000. I'm guessing the govt will start playing down the accuracy of published figures now, so we can't use them to estimate how well their strategy is or isn't working. Their gamble and their main hope is to ensure that the NHS will cope with whatever happens.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:03 pm 
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tim3003 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:

The plan is for cases in the UK to rise faster than in other countries. It's a very bold and brave move politically. I worry they won't have the nerve to follow it through for the reasons you outline. With the current plan the government will get an absolute kicking over the next 3-4 months but we could well be better off in the long term.


Where do you get that plan from?

Since those suffering symptoms are now not being encouraged to report them, but simply to self-isolate, the notion of keeping an accurate count of them seems absurd. And it's already been suggested that despite the 800-odd official UK count, the real total could be 10000. I'm guessing the govt will start playing down the accuracy of published figures now, so we can't use them to estimate how well their strategy is or isn't working. Their gamble and their main hope is to ensure that the NHS will cope with whatever happens.


It's not my strategy it's the British governments. We wouldn't be able to use that data to see if the strategy is or isn't working really. We aren't trying to stop it in the short term. We aren't testing people so there will be no accurate figures apart from perhaps the number of deaths.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:47 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:

The plan is for cases in the UK to rise faster than in other countries. It's a very bold and brave move politically. I worry they won't have the nerve to follow it through for the reasons you outline. With the current plan the government will get an absolute kicking over the next 3-4 months but we could well be better off in the long term.

It's not my strategy it's the British governments. We wouldn't be able to use that data to see if the strategy is or isn't working really. We aren't trying to stop it in the short term. We aren't testing people so there will be no accurate figures apart from perhaps the number of deaths.


I meant, I don't recall anyone announcing that strategy, nor advocating it. The oft-restated plan has been to slow the rise in cases and flatten out the peak, not accelarate it. Surely the constant announcements of greater restrictions on free movement of those at risk and on all large gatherings points to this.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:37 pm 
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tim3003 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:

The plan is for cases in the UK to rise faster than in other countries. It's a very bold and brave move politically. I worry they won't have the nerve to follow it through for the reasons you outline. With the current plan the government will get an absolute kicking over the next 3-4 months but we could well be better off in the long term.

It's not my strategy it's the British governments. We wouldn't be able to use that data to see if the strategy is or isn't working really. We aren't trying to stop it in the short term. We aren't testing people so there will be no accurate figures apart from perhaps the number of deaths.


I meant, I don't recall anyone announcing that strategy, nor advocating it. The oft-restated plan has been to slow the rise in cases and flatten out the peak, not accelarate it. Surely the constant announcements of greater restrictions on free movement of those at risk and on all large gatherings points to this.


In the UK, what restrictions? What announcements? All we've had since Thursday is a press release saying that over 70s will be asked to isolate some time in the next couple of weeks. That's consistent with the plan. Greater restrictions on all of us will be put in place as the health service gets close to capacity. That's the flattening of the peak we have heard about.

Compare that to must of the rest of Europe which is on virtual lockdown already.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:06 pm 
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Incidentally the UK Government has now said that herd immunity isn't their strategy and the press has misreported it.

Which is even more incompetent because many British people are saying how if herd immunity is the plan they are going to try and catch it early to get it out the way before the hospitals are rammed and so they can get back to going to the pub.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:53 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Incidentally the UK Government has now said that herd immunity isn't their strategy and the press has misreported it.

Which is even more incompetent because many British people are saying how if herd immunity is the plan they are going to try and catch it early to get it out the way before the hospitals are rammed and so they can get back to going to the pub.


The government's communication over the past week, and especially the past few days, has been nothing short of shambolic.

Last night they briefed a journalist on the idea to make 70+ year olds self-isolate for months, rather than you know, announce it officially by using a press conference. Something of this magnitude surely warrants daily press confernce to explain the latest updates/evidence.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:28 pm 
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Panic, PANIC !, PANIC !!!

It really is ridiculous how many governments are reacting, and shutting borders.

Just to note ;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51895560

.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:40 pm 
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Greenman wrote:
.

Panic, PANIC !, PANIC !!!

It really is ridiculous how many governments are reacting, and shutting borders.

Just to note ;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51895560

.

Panic buying food now, nice to see the every man for himself spirit. :thumbdown:

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:58 pm 
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JN23 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Incidentally the UK Government has now said that herd immunity isn't their strategy and the press has misreported it.

Which is even more incompetent because many British people are saying how if herd immunity is the plan they are going to try and catch it early to get it out the way before the hospitals are rammed and so they can get back to going to the pub.


The government's communication over the past week, and especially the past few days, has been nothing short of shambolic.

Last night they briefed a journalist on the idea to make 70+ year olds self-isolate for months, rather than you know, announce it officially by using a press conference. Something of this magnitude surely warrants daily press confernce to explain the latest updates/evidence.


And on Thursday one of their primary recommendations was for 70+ year olds not to go on a cruise :uhoh:

China, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong are showing that strict quarantine, the use of advanced AI, and contact tracing works. China is now forcing foreign people to quarantine for what could be up to 28 days before being allowed to enter their society. I've faith that they will return to normal within months and potentially become the largest economy in the world as a result.

We can suffer a few months of very low economic activity, or allow some (hundreds of) thousands in the UK to die. Ideally, the UK, and pretty much every other European government, would have been proactive and enforce strict measures as soon as the Italian outbreak happened. They haven't, but there still exists an opportunity to limit the amount of lives lost, even if it now means that economic activity will take a massive hit.

(I realise this has nothing to do with F1, but it's hard to hold in my frustration much longer!)

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:16 pm 
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China had two cases diagnosed yesterday from foreigners travelling into China (one American).

Lockdown only works if you, somehow, prevent reinfection of the general population.

.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:21 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
Greenman wrote:
.

Panic, PANIC !, PANIC !!!

It really is ridiculous how many governments are reacting, and shutting borders.

Just to note ;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51895560

.

Panic buying food now, nice to see the every man for himself spirit. :thumbdown:


If the selfish morons out there who can't act with a modicum of human decency continue to strip supermarket shelves bare, I wonder if governments should start to take control of food supply chains & introduce some type of regulated food distribution program e.g rationing, until we get rid of this thing.

At least that way we can all get a little of what's needed.

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PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:02 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Incidentally the UK Government has now said that herd immunity isn't their strategy and the press has misreported it.

Which is even more incompetent because many British people are saying how if herd immunity is the plan they are going to try and catch it early to get it out the way before the hospitals are rammed and so they can get back to going to the pub.

Then I am confused. I'm pretty sure the term "herd immunity" was a direct quote from the UK's chief science advisor in the article I posted above. Maybe they're backtracking in the face of the criticism they've received.

Either way, the idea of trying to catch it ASAP is even more selfish than those who are hoarding large quantities of supermarket produce. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if it was the same people.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:48 am 
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I won't be self isolating. I've spoken to several people in their 60s over the weekend and they fully intend to carry on as normal and are just as nonchalant about it.

Crazy to close the entire world, what's going to happen if we get another virus next year. Everyone just stay in doors for the rest of time


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:59 am 
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Zazu wrote:
I won't be self isolating. I've spoken to several people in their 60s over the weekend and they fully intend to carry on as normal and are just as nonchalant about it.

Crazy to close the entire world, what's going to happen if we get another virus next year. Everyone just stay in doors for the rest of time

Yeah, there's a good example of why humanity is doomed if we're hit by something a little deadlier.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:18 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Panic buying food now, nice to see the every man for himself spirit. :thumbdown:

Those who don't do it, it is perhaps not out of their great altruistic spirit and the personal sacrifice for the greater good, but simply because they don't see the need to do it now.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:25 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
tim3003 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:

The plan is for cases in the UK to rise faster than in other countries. It's a very bold and brave move politically. I worry they won't have the nerve to follow it through for the reasons you outline. With the current plan the government will get an absolute kicking over the next 3-4 months but we could well be better off in the long term.

It's not my strategy it's the British governments. We wouldn't be able to use that data to see if the strategy is or isn't working really. We aren't trying to stop it in the short term. We aren't testing people so there will be no accurate figures apart from perhaps the number of deaths.


I meant, I don't recall anyone announcing that strategy, nor advocating it. The oft-restated plan has been to slow the rise in cases and flatten out the peak, not accelarate it. Surely the constant announcements of greater restrictions on free movement of those at risk and on all large gatherings points to this.


In the UK, what restrictions? What announcements? All we've had since Thursday is a press release saying that over 70s will be asked to isolate some time in the next couple of weeks. That's consistent with the plan. Greater restrictions on all of us will be put in place as the health service gets close to capacity. That's the flattening of the peak we have heard about.

Compare that to must of the rest of Europe which is on virtual lockdown already.


Well, here in Sweden all the pandemic measures undertaken by the government so far have not gone further than "wash your hands for 20 sec" advice.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:33 am 
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Jezza13 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Greenman wrote:
.

Panic, PANIC !, PANIC !!!

It really is ridiculous how many governments are reacting, and shutting borders.

Just to note ;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51895560

.

Panic buying food now, nice to see the every man for himself spirit. :thumbdown:


If the selfish morons out there who can't act with a modicum of human decency continue to strip supermarket shelves bare, I wonder if governments should start to take control of food supply chains & introduce some type of regulated food distribution program e.g rationing, until we get rid of this thing.

At least that way we can all get a little of what's needed.


There are people proudly posting their pics online, stocking up their kitchens. Pics of fridges that can't close because of the extra food, so many tin cans that won't fit in the cupboards, etc. This is silly, we'll end up going to rationing like in war times.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:39 am 
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Siao7 wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Greenman wrote:
.

Panic, PANIC !, PANIC !!!

It really is ridiculous how many governments are reacting, and shutting borders.

Just to note ;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51895560

.

Panic buying food now, nice to see the every man for himself spirit. :thumbdown:


If the selfish morons out there who can't act with a modicum of human decency continue to strip supermarket shelves bare, I wonder if governments should start to take control of food supply chains & introduce some type of regulated food distribution program e.g rationing, until we get rid of this thing.

At least that way we can all get a little of what's needed.


There are people proudly posting their pics online, stocking up their kitchens. Pics of fridges that can't close because of the extra food, so many tin cans that won't fit in the cupboards, etc. This is silly, we'll end up going to rationing like in war times.


Don't worry. Those idiots will simply have full shelves for the next months. The shops will quickly re-stock. The local supply chains are working fine. Infact quieter roads will help them. We may have to give up imported fruit and veg, but otherwise - how much toilet paper can people use in a few weeks?? The food and home goods industries may be the only ones to thrive this year..


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:53 am 
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tim3003 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Greenman wrote:
.

Panic, PANIC !, PANIC !!!

It really is ridiculous how many governments are reacting, and shutting borders.

Just to note ;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51895560

.

Panic buying food now, nice to see the every man for himself spirit. :thumbdown:


If the selfish morons out there who can't act with a modicum of human decency continue to strip supermarket shelves bare, I wonder if governments should start to take control of food supply chains & introduce some type of regulated food distribution program e.g rationing, until we get rid of this thing.

At least that way we can all get a little of what's needed.


There are people proudly posting their pics online, stocking up their kitchens. Pics of fridges that can't close because of the extra food, so many tin cans that won't fit in the cupboards, etc. This is silly, we'll end up going to rationing like in war times.


Don't worry. Those idiots will simply have full shelves for the next months. The shops will quickly re-stock. The local supply chains are working fine. Infact quieter roads will help them. We may have to give up imported fruit and veg, but otherwise - how much toilet paper can people use in a few weeks?? The food and home goods industries may be the only ones to thrive this year..

Delivery scooters too!!!!

But yeah, I was thinking the same, people panic and then... nothing. They just stocked and that's about it


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:54 am 
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The good news is that it is becoming clearer and clearer that diagnosed cases of Covid-19, represent just a fraction of the number of people infected with the virus. This is good news because it means the spread will not keep growing for as long as previously thought, and deaths will be less than the worst case would be if it did not turn out there were so many cases with little or no symptoms as it now appears likely there are.

Further news, I can see countries getting to the point where sporting events can be held with crowds attending during period of the f1 calendar.

What I cannot see is countries welcoming the f1 roadshow without a two week quarantine before it is too late for f1 to restart.

If fact, i suspect covid-19 will change the world and the we people think. Everything does not simply go back to the way it was after this. I think f1 as a travelling roadshow under the current structure is over forever. Update to allow less travelling.....or end f1. Sounds dire, but it need not be dire if there is some constructive evolution.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:32 pm 
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iano wrote:
The good news is that it is becoming clearer and clearer that diagnosed cases of Covid-19, represent just a fraction of the number of people infected with the virus. This is good news because it means the spread will not keep growing for as long as previously thought, and deaths will be less than the worst case would be if it did not turn out there were so many cases with little or no symptoms as it now appears likely there are.

Further news, I can see countries getting to the point where sporting events can be held with crowds attending during period of the f1 calendar.

What I cannot see is countries welcoming the f1 roadshow without a two week quarantine before it is too late for f1 to restart.

If fact, i suspect covid-19 will change the world and the we people think. Everything does not simply go back to the way it was after this. I think f1 as a travelling roadshow under the current structure is over forever. Update to allow less travelling.....or end f1. Sounds dire, but it need not be dire if there is some constructive evolution.

South Korea tested everyone, regardless of symptoms, made it free and fast with drive through testing.

They discovered that there was a huge spike in the 20-29 year old age range in terms of the number of people who were infected - however they were also mostly asymptomatic.

Europe, including Italy who is doing the most testing, has only been testing people once they present with symptoms. As a result, very very few 20-29 year olds are being tested. This does - as you highlight - inflate the death rate (and one of the reasons South Korea's is so low, and probably represents the true fatality rate of the disease if a population was randomly infected), however it also means that many 20-29 year olds who aren't symptomatic are behaving as if they are fine as they is government advice in anywhere that doesn't have a lock down yet. This is only increasing the community spread, and the people who think they are fine (because they haven't been tested and don't have a cough or a temperature)

Having such a large non symptomatic group that is highly contagious is a huge problem, and is one of the reasons that mass testing worked so effectively in South Korea at bring their crisis swiftly under control, as they were able to identify who was infected and isolate them. If people don't know if they are infected or not, they will only self isolate for a short period of time - if they know they have it then they will treat it far more seriously. Well except for the guy in Japan who got a positive test for it and then decided he would go to bars to try and infect as many people as he could.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:50 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
iano wrote:
The good news is that it is becoming clearer and clearer that diagnosed cases of Covid-19, represent just a fraction of the number of people infected with the virus. This is good news because it means the spread will not keep growing for as long as previously thought, and deaths will be less than the worst case would be if it did not turn out there were so many cases with little or no symptoms as it now appears likely there are.

Further news, I can see countries getting to the point where sporting events can be held with crowds attending during period of the f1 calendar.

What I cannot see is countries welcoming the f1 roadshow without a two week quarantine before it is too late for f1 to restart.

If fact, i suspect covid-19 will change the world and the we people think. Everything does not simply go back to the way it was after this. I think f1 as a travelling roadshow under the current structure is over forever. Update to allow less travelling.....or end f1. Sounds dire, but it need not be dire if there is some constructive evolution.

South Korea tested everyone, regardless of symptoms, made it free and fast with drive through testing.

They discovered that there was a huge spike in the 20-29 year old age range in terms of the number of people who were infected - however they were also mostly asymptomatic.

Europe, including Italy who is doing the most testing, has only been testing people once they present with symptoms. As a result, very very few 20-29 year olds are being tested. This does - as you highlight - inflate the death rate (and one of the reasons South Korea's is so low, and probably represents the true fatality rate of the disease if a population was randomly infected), however it also means that many 20-29 year olds who aren't symptomatic are behaving as if they are fine as they is government advice in anywhere that doesn't have a lock down yet. This is only increasing the community spread, and the people who think they are fine (because they haven't been tested and don't have a cough or a temperature)

Having such a large non symptomatic group that is highly contagious is a huge problem, and is one of the reasons that mass testing worked so effectively in South Korea at bring their crisis swiftly under control, as they were able to identify who was infected and isolate them. If people don't know if they are infected or not, they will only self isolate for a short period of time - if they know they have it then they will treat it far more seriously. Well except for the guy in Japan who got a positive test for it and then decided he would go to bars to try and infect as many people as he could.


Yeah, I definitely agree that having such a large asymptotic group is worrying, and would put serious questions for leaving schools open with children infecting each other and then being vectors to their families. As someone in the 20-29 year old group, I am remaining very cautious around family members, limiting any potential shed of the virus. Unfortunately, without government intervention, there will be millions of people who will carry on like normal because this information isn't being shared to them.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:34 pm 
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Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
iano wrote:
The good news is that it is becoming clearer and clearer that diagnosed cases of Covid-19, represent just a fraction of the number of people infected with the virus. This is good news because it means the spread will not keep growing for as long as previously thought, and deaths will be less than the worst case would be if it did not turn out there were so many cases with little or no symptoms as it now appears likely there are.

Further news, I can see countries getting to the point where sporting events can be held with crowds attending during period of the f1 calendar.

What I cannot see is countries welcoming the f1 roadshow without a two week quarantine before it is too late for f1 to restart.

If fact, i suspect covid-19 will change the world and the we people think. Everything does not simply go back to the way it was after this. I think f1 as a travelling roadshow under the current structure is over forever. Update to allow less travelling.....or end f1. Sounds dire, but it need not be dire if there is some constructive evolution.

South Korea tested everyone, regardless of symptoms, made it free and fast with drive through testing.

They discovered that there was a huge spike in the 20-29 year old age range in terms of the number of people who were infected - however they were also mostly asymptomatic.

Europe, including Italy who is doing the most testing, has only been testing people once they present with symptoms. As a result, very very few 20-29 year olds are being tested. This does - as you highlight - inflate the death rate (and one of the reasons South Korea's is so low, and probably represents the true fatality rate of the disease if a population was randomly infected), however it also means that many 20-29 year olds who aren't symptomatic are behaving as if they are fine as they is government advice in anywhere that doesn't have a lock down yet. This is only increasing the community spread, and the people who think they are fine (because they haven't been tested and don't have a cough or a temperature)

Having such a large non symptomatic group that is highly contagious is a huge problem, and is one of the reasons that mass testing worked so effectively in South Korea at bring their crisis swiftly under control, as they were able to identify who was infected and isolate them. If people don't know if they are infected or not, they will only self isolate for a short period of time - if they know they have it then they will treat it far more seriously. Well except for the guy in Japan who got a positive test for it and then decided he would go to bars to try and infect as many people as he could.


Yeah, I definitely agree that having such a large asymptotic group is worrying, and would put serious questions for leaving schools open with children infecting each other and then being vectors to their families. As someone in the 20-29 year old group, I am remaining very cautious around family members, limiting any potential shed of the virus. Unfortunately, without government intervention, there will be millions of people who will carry on like normal because this information isn't being shared to them.

Living in Japan, I have been shocked at the lack of a shutdown here yet the slow, non exponential growth. The only thing they have done is shut the schools. Maybe that's what it took - it's achieved too things, kept all the kids from mingling, but also kept their parents tied up too (who tend to be younger than in the West as Japanese women who don't get married by the age of 25 are called 'Christmas cakes', as a pejorative meaning they are past their best)

However, Japan is testing very few people as well so it's likely that the cases are higher - but as the death rate has not been exponential either it does suggest even if there is an under reporting of the infected count (which is the case pretty much everywhere but possibly Korea) the actual figure is proportional to it.

Of course, it's entirely possible the Japanese government is fudging their figures in the hope they can still have an Olympics.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:02 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
iano wrote:
The good news is that it is becoming clearer and clearer that diagnosed cases of Covid-19, represent just a fraction of the number of people infected with the virus. This is good news because it means the spread will not keep growing for as long as previously thought, and deaths will be less than the worst case would be if it did not turn out there were so many cases with little or no symptoms as it now appears likely there are.

Further news, I can see countries getting to the point where sporting events can be held with crowds attending during period of the f1 calendar.

What I cannot see is countries welcoming the f1 roadshow without a two week quarantine before it is too late for f1 to restart.

If fact, i suspect covid-19 will change the world and the we people think. Everything does not simply go back to the way it was after this. I think f1 as a travelling roadshow under the current structure is over forever. Update to allow less travelling.....or end f1. Sounds dire, but it need not be dire if there is some constructive evolution.

South Korea tested everyone, regardless of symptoms, made it free and fast with drive through testing.

They discovered that there was a huge spike in the 20-29 year old age range in terms of the number of people who were infected - however they were also mostly asymptomatic.

Europe, including Italy who is doing the most testing, has only been testing people once they present with symptoms. As a result, very very few 20-29 year olds are being tested. This does - as you highlight - inflate the death rate (and one of the reasons South Korea's is so low, and probably represents the true fatality rate of the disease if a population was randomly infected), however it also means that many 20-29 year olds who aren't symptomatic are behaving as if they are fine as they is government advice in anywhere that doesn't have a lock down yet. This is only increasing the community spread, and the people who think they are fine (because they haven't been tested and don't have a cough or a temperature)

Having such a large non symptomatic group that is highly contagious is a huge problem, and is one of the reasons that mass testing worked so effectively in South Korea at bring their crisis swiftly under control, as they were able to identify who was infected and isolate them. If people don't know if they are infected or not, they will only self isolate for a short period of time - if they know they have it then they will treat it far more seriously. Well except for the guy in Japan who got a positive test for it and then decided he would go to bars to try and infect as many people as he could.


Thanks for that, I did not have info on South Korea's tests for 20-29 year olds. That many 20-29year olds would be asymptomatic fits with predictions i made in blog posts i share with friends, but i had no confirmation. Great work spotting that. You do not by any chance recall the source of that data?

South Korea in made it free and fast with drive through testing. However this still does not mean they detected ever infection. Comments by the chief medical officers in Britain and Australia give pause for thought. In Britain it was suggested cases could be 10,000 at a time when diagnosed cases was around 600, suggesting he had some source of data suggesting there could be an even more significant amount of asymptomatic cases than even what was detected in Korea. The Australian CMO stated that there was no data available so far on children who are asymptomatic, in order to determine if children are largely asymptomatic or simply do not catch the virus. He believed it was most likely the former.

Did South Korea also test children which means there should be data, or have they found it not necessary to test children? In either case, while South Korea may be a model for to do testing, short as you say randomly testing the population, there is no way to detect all cases. Every system of testing some some sample and using the number from that sample will most likely miss some cases. The question is "How many?".

I still suspect even the cases diagnosed in South Korea could be lower than actual cases by a significant margin, but all that can be done at this time is speculate. The diagnosed cases is what we know is the minimum, but there is insufficient data to know the maximum. There simply are not enough test kits world wide for anyone to be doing population sampling at this time.

Note: Norway has detected 1,300 cases (and states that there also undetected infections) and so far has only 3 fatalities.
Still relatively small stats and early days, but 4x lower than South Korea


Last edited by iano on Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:11 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Incidentally the UK Government has now said that herd immunity isn't their strategy and the press has misreported it.

Which is even more incompetent because many British people are saying how if herd immunity is the plan they are going to try and catch it early to get it out the way before the hospitals are rammed and so they can get back to going to the pub.


Yes misreported despite those very words coming directly from the PM just a few days ago - it's shambolic. I really can't believe how low the bar is at the moment in UK politics.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:47 am 
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iano wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
iano wrote:
The good news is that it is becoming clearer and clearer that diagnosed cases of Covid-19, represent just a fraction of the number of people infected with the virus. This is good news because it means the spread will not keep growing for as long as previously thought, and deaths will be less than the worst case would be if it did not turn out there were so many cases with little or no symptoms as it now appears likely there are.

Further news, I can see countries getting to the point where sporting events can be held with crowds attending during period of the f1 calendar.

What I cannot see is countries welcoming the f1 roadshow without a two week quarantine before it is too late for f1 to restart.

If fact, i suspect covid-19 will change the world and the we people think. Everything does not simply go back to the way it was after this. I think f1 as a travelling roadshow under the current structure is over forever. Update to allow less travelling.....or end f1. Sounds dire, but it need not be dire if there is some constructive evolution.

South Korea tested everyone, regardless of symptoms, made it free and fast with drive through testing.

They discovered that there was a huge spike in the 20-29 year old age range in terms of the number of people who were infected - however they were also mostly asymptomatic.

Europe, including Italy who is doing the most testing, has only been testing people once they present with symptoms. As a result, very very few 20-29 year olds are being tested. This does - as you highlight - inflate the death rate (and one of the reasons South Korea's is so low, and probably represents the true fatality rate of the disease if a population was randomly infected), however it also means that many 20-29 year olds who aren't symptomatic are behaving as if they are fine as they is government advice in anywhere that doesn't have a lock down yet. This is only increasing the community spread, and the people who think they are fine (because they haven't been tested and don't have a cough or a temperature)

Having such a large non symptomatic group that is highly contagious is a huge problem, and is one of the reasons that mass testing worked so effectively in South Korea at bring their crisis swiftly under control, as they were able to identify who was infected and isolate them. If people don't know if they are infected or not, they will only self isolate for a short period of time - if they know they have it then they will treat it far more seriously. Well except for the guy in Japan who got a positive test for it and then decided he would go to bars to try and infect as many people as he could.


Thanks for that, I did not have info on South Korea's tests for 20-29 year olds. That many 20-29year olds would be asymptomatic fits with predictions i made in blog posts i share with friends, but i had no confirmation. Great work spotting that. You do not by any chance recall the source of that data?

South Korea in made it free and fast with drive through testing. However this still does not mean they detected ever infection. Comments by the chief medical officers in Britain and Australia give pause for thought. In Britain it was suggested cases could be 10,000 at a time when diagnosed cases was around 600, suggesting he had some source of data suggesting there could be an even more significant amount of asymptomatic cases than even what was detected in Korea. The Australian CMO stated that there was no data available so far on children who are asymptomatic, in order to determine if children are largely asymptomatic or simply do not catch the virus. He believed it was most likely the former.

Did South Korea also test children which means there should be data, or have they found it not necessary to test children? In either case, while South Korea may be a model for to do testing, short as you say randomly testing the population, there is no way to detect all cases. Every system of testing some some sample and using the number from that sample will most likely miss some cases. The question is "How many?".

I still suspect even the cases diagnosed in South Korea could be lower than actual cases by a significant margin, but all that can be done at this time is speculate. The diagnosed cases is what we know is the minimum, but there is insufficient data to know the maximum. There simply are not enough test kits world wide for anyone to be doing population sampling at this time.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... es-by-age/

20-29 year olds make up 28% of all confirmed cases, far higher than any other age group, next being 50-59 with 19%. Figures as per 16/03/20, they do update regularly on that link.

Only question I have is how many people in each age group have been tested, as that could obviously distort the data.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:55 am 
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Biffa wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Incidentally the UK Government has now said that herd immunity isn't their strategy and the press has misreported it.

Which is even more incompetent because many British people are saying how if herd immunity is the plan they are going to try and catch it early to get it out the way before the hospitals are rammed and so they can get back to going to the pub.


Yes misreported despite those very words coming directly from the PM just a few days ago - it's shambolic. I really can't believe how low the bar is at the moment in UK politics.

Perhaps the low bar is for those at the pub. Btw....no better state of politics in Australia...and as for the US


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:27 am 
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Black_Flag_11 wrote:
iano wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
iano wrote:
The good news is that it is becoming clearer and clearer that diagnosed cases of Covid-19, represent just a fraction of the number of people infected with the virus. This is good news because it means the spread will not keep growing for as long as previously thought, and deaths will be less than the worst case would be if it did not turn out there were so many cases with little or no symptoms as it now appears likely there are.

Further news, I can see countries getting to the point where sporting events can be held with crowds attending during period of the f1 calendar.

What I cannot see is countries welcoming the f1 roadshow without a two week quarantine before it is too late for f1 to restart.

If fact, i suspect covid-19 will change the world and the we people think. Everything does not simply go back to the way it was after this. I think f1 as a travelling roadshow under the current structure is over forever. Update to allow less travelling.....or end f1. Sounds dire, but it need not be dire if there is some constructive evolution.

South Korea tested everyone, regardless of symptoms, made it free and fast with drive through testing.

They discovered that there was a huge spike in the 20-29 year old age range in terms of the number of people who were infected - however they were also mostly asymptomatic.

Europe, including Italy who is doing the most testing, has only been testing people once they present with symptoms. As a result, very very few 20-29 year olds are being tested. This does - as you highlight - inflate the death rate (and one of the reasons South Korea's is so low, and probably represents the true fatality rate of the disease if a population was randomly infected), however it also means that many 20-29 year olds who aren't symptomatic are behaving as if they are fine as they is government advice in anywhere that doesn't have a lock down yet. This is only increasing the community spread, and the people who think they are fine (because they haven't been tested and don't have a cough or a temperature)

Having such a large non symptomatic group that is highly contagious is a huge problem, and is one of the reasons that mass testing worked so effectively in South Korea at bring their crisis swiftly under control, as they were able to identify who was infected and isolate them. If people don't know if they are infected or not, they will only self isolate for a short period of time - if they know they have it then they will treat it far more seriously. Well except for the guy in Japan who got a positive test for it and then decided he would go to bars to try and infect as many people as he could.


Thanks for that, I did not have info on South Korea's tests for 20-29 year olds. That many 20-29year olds would be asymptomatic fits with predictions i made in blog posts i share with friends, but i had no confirmation. Great work spotting that. You do not by any chance recall the source of that data?

South Korea in made it free and fast with drive through testing. However this still does not mean they detected ever infection. Comments by the chief medical officers in Britain and Australia give pause for thought. In Britain it was suggested cases could be 10,000 at a time when diagnosed cases was around 600, suggesting he had some source of data suggesting there could be an even more significant amount of asymptomatic cases than even what was detected in Korea. The Australian CMO stated that there was no data available so far on children who are asymptomatic, in order to determine if children are largely asymptomatic or simply do not catch the virus. He believed it was most likely the former.

Did South Korea also test children which means there should be data, or have they found it not necessary to test children? In either case, while South Korea may be a model for to do testing, short as you say randomly testing the population, there is no way to detect all cases. Every system of testing some some sample and using the number from that sample will most likely miss some cases. The question is "How many?".

I still suspect even the cases diagnosed in South Korea could be lower than actual cases by a significant margin, but all that can be done at this time is speculate. The diagnosed cases is what we know is the minimum, but there is insufficient data to know the maximum. There simply are not enough test kits world wide for anyone to be doing population sampling at this time.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... es-by-age/

20-29 year olds make up 28% of all confirmed cases, far higher than any other age group, next being 50-59 with 19%. Figures as per 16/03/20, they do update regularly on that link.

Only question I have is how many people in each age group have been tested, as that could obviously distort the data.


Yes, certainly dilutes the value of the stat to just report cases without reporting who is being tested. Thank you for the stat though, it is still interesting even if does reveal all.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:36 am 
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I have posted this before, but I'll provide the link again, it is a fine way to see the spread and get an overview about numbers:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6


Fun fact: North Korea is the safest place on Earth, 0 cases!!!


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:57 am 
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iano wrote:
Biffa wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Incidentally the UK Government has now said that herd immunity isn't their strategy and the press has misreported it.

Which is even more incompetent because many British people are saying how if herd immunity is the plan they are going to try and catch it early to get it out the way before the hospitals are rammed and so they can get back to going to the pub.


Yes misreported despite those very words coming directly from the PM just a few days ago - it's shambolic. I really can't believe how low the bar is at the moment in UK politics.

Perhaps the low bar is for those at the pub. Btw....no better state of politics in Australia...and as for the US


He he yes I saw that one (fake news channel according to Trump ;-) why do we vote for these muppets?


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:35 am 
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i sit here at 6:30 am a bit south of chicago, IL. wondering if today is the day they lock down the entire united states. way to many people are not paying any attention to this, and throwing a fit that they shut down restaurants and bars last night.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:05 pm 
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Siao7 wrote:
I have posted this before, but I'll provide the link again, it is a fine way to see the spread and get an overview about numbers:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6


Fun fact: North Korea is the safest place on Earth, 0 cases!!!


0 reported cases

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:15 pm 
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DOLOMITE wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
I have posted this before, but I'll provide the link again, it is a fine way to see the spread and get an overview about numbers:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6


Fun fact: North Korea is the safest place on Earth, 0 cases!!!


0 reported cases


I know, I was joking obviously. Someone was saying that the cases there were reported as:

- 1 case
- Now 0 cases
- 1 case
- Now 0 cases
Repeat!

Ok, I'll stop it here, this is the silver lining, this whole thing has brought out a lot of humour around.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:27 pm 
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Looking like Euro 2020 will be cancelled, so that's June and July - not looking good :?


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:43 pm 
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Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:14 am
Posts: 1654
Siao7 wrote:
DOLOMITE wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
I have posted this before, but I'll provide the link again, it is a fine way to see the spread and get an overview about numbers:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6


Fun fact: North Korea is the safest place on Earth, 0 cases!!!


0 reported cases


I know, I was joking obviously. Someone was saying that the cases there were reported as:

- 1 case
- Now 0 cases
- 1 case
- Now 0 cases
Repeat!

Ok, I'll stop it here, this is the silver lining, this whole thing has brought out a lot of humour around.


Agree on the humour thing!

Regarding North Korea: there was an article last week which reported the Pentagon were fairly certain that coronavirus has reached there: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4874 ... irus-cases


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:45 pm 
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Biffa wrote:
Looking like Euro 2020 will be cancelled, so that's June and July - not looking good :?


It doesn’t look good but I also think this is to buy domestic leagues time to finish their seasons. It’s just common sense at this point to make it Euro 2021. It could of course be the case we still aren’t playing football/racing cars come June/July but I think at this point in time it’s just as much to help domestic associations finish their seasons.


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