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PostPosted: Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:54 pm 
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If cases get worse, it isn’t completely implausible that the Italian GP will be cancelled but also Ferrari may be subject to travel restrictions. Not scare mongering just wondering about the possibility.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:18 am 
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Is Ferrari Corona Virus already some new variant of 2019-nCoV?

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:28 am 
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They've cancelled the season opener of MotoGP due to travel restrictions on anyone thats been in Italy or Japan.

Bear in mind this is Qatar with almost bottomless wealth to host the race.



I cant see the Bahrain F1 going ahead and if they have problems in Vietnam its feasible there will be nearly 2 months gap between the first 2 races. Sort of ironic after the complaining of a packed calendar

France currently have a limit on large events so wouldn't surprise me at all if Paul Ricard was ran with empty grandstands if its not sorted before June :uhoh:


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:46 am 
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My best guess right now is that we have Australia, but lose Bahrain and Vietnam. I think a pandemic will be called around that time and containment measures will be duly wound down.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:54 am 
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Think we should be more concerned if any travel restrictions imposed affect Pirelli


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:16 pm 
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I think we'll lose a lot of the early races. Bahrain definitely. Vietnam, I can see them going to extraordinary lengths to try and keep the race on but ultimately not being able to. And then the early part of the European calendar has got to be under threat as well, given it's two months away and that gives it plenty of time to spread, become a full-blown pandemic and really start resulting in a lot of large scale events not happening.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:07 pm 
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Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I think we'll lose a lot of the early races. Bahrain definitely. Vietnam, I can see them going to extraordinary lengths to try and keep the race on but ultimately not being able to. And then the early part of the European calendar has got to be under threat as well, given it's two months away and that gives it plenty of time to spread, become a full-blown pandemic and really start resulting in a lot of large scale events not happening.


Actually that may end up being the opposite. The reason for containment is to try and avoid this becoming and pandemic. Usually a pandemic is called when containment has failed and become futile. Containment may well be wound down and focus will turn elsewhere in terms of finding and developing vaccines and treatments.

Note we had a pandemic 10 years ago which did not result in events being cancelled.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:15 pm 
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Dont worry, Ferrari & the FIA have come to an undisclosed agreement that the Virus isnt affecting them & that in no way will affect the Italian GP.
Anyone saying otherwise is wrong.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:26 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I think we'll lose a lot of the early races. Bahrain definitely. Vietnam, I can see them going to extraordinary lengths to try and keep the race on but ultimately not being able to. And then the early part of the European calendar has got to be under threat as well, given it's two months away and that gives it plenty of time to spread, become a full-blown pandemic and really start resulting in a lot of large scale events not happening.


Actually that may end up being the opposite. The reason for containment is to try and avoid this becoming and pandemic. Usually a pandemic is called when containment has failed and become futile. Containment may well be wound down and focus will turn elsewhere in terms of finding and developing vaccines and treatments.

Note we had a pandemic 10 years ago which did not result in events being cancelled.


I hope you're right about that. I work in the events industry and seeing Mobile World Congress and the Geneva Motor Show both getting cancelled, as well as a number of smaller domestic jobs we were working on not happening due to the end client being an international company, hasn't exactly been brilliant for us! Considering two of our largest shows of the year are abroad (Cisco Live and Gamescom) we're hoping that this either dies down and everything gets back to normal (which seems unlikely) or gets to the point where, as you say, cancelling everything is no longer seen as worthwhile and everyone just accepts it and starts getting on with things.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:43 pm 
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If most of the season gets canceled at least Mercedes won't win the double this year.


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:01 pm 
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cmberry20 wrote:
Dont worry, Ferrari & the FIA have come to an undisclosed agreement that the Virus isnt affecting them & that in no way will affect the Italian GP.
Anyone saying otherwise is wrong.

:thumbup: :lol:

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:05 pm 
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Jenson's Understeer wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I think we'll lose a lot of the early races. Bahrain definitely. Vietnam, I can see them going to extraordinary lengths to try and keep the race on but ultimately not being able to. And then the early part of the European calendar has got to be under threat as well, given it's two months away and that gives it plenty of time to spread, become a full-blown pandemic and really start resulting in a lot of large scale events not happening.


Actually that may end up being the opposite. The reason for containment is to try and avoid this becoming and pandemic. Usually a pandemic is called when containment has failed and become futile. Containment may well be wound down and focus will turn elsewhere in terms of finding and developing vaccines and treatments.

Note we had a pandemic 10 years ago which did not result in events being cancelled.


I hope you're right about that. I work in the events industry and seeing Mobile World Congress and the Geneva Motor Show both getting cancelled, as well as a number of smaller domestic jobs we were working on not happening due to the end client being an international company, hasn't exactly been brilliant for us! Considering two of our largest shows of the year are abroad (Cisco Live and Gamescom) we're hoping that this either dies down and everything gets back to normal (which seems unlikely) or gets to the point where, as you say, cancelling everything is no longer seen as worthwhile and everyone just accepts it and starts getting on with things.


We've already had one conference "delayed" this year that we had staff down to attend, with little chance it will be rescheduled. Another is up in the air. These are relatively small, around a thousand or so total people involved. I can see many medium-large scale events being cancelled sooner rather than later so people don't waste money booking transport and accommodation.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:30 pm 
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Altair wrote:
If most of the season gets canceled at least Mercedes won't win the double this year.

I'm not sure how that works? Are Mercedes somehow barred from winning the first few races of the year?

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:27 am 
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The FIA Sporting Regulations state that the Championship will still count so long as 8 races are held. This means 14 can be cancelled and we will still have a championship winner.

They also state that an event can only be cancelled if fewer than 12 cars are available. As only 4 teams are potentially affected by an Italy ban (Ferrari, Alpha Tauri, Alfa Romeo and Haas), this would mean that one more team would need to drop out for it to be cancelled on these grounds.

It's possible that the teams would consent to the race being a non championship event if Coronavirus prevents some teams from attending - although that would probably be wrapped up with several other legal stipulations (such as engine components used not being from the limited pool, and for this arrangement to be automatically reciprocated if other teams are prevented from attending later on, as it is looking like only a matter of time before an outbreak occurs in the south east of England)

Also, with the recent secretative FIA ruling, and several teams angry about it, it's also likely that those teams are not going to be in the mood to do Ferrari any favours. Not to mention, the Indy 2005 event, the Bridgestone teams played hardball and refused to run the event as a non championship event with a chicane. Of course, Michelin failing to build a tyre that is strong enough for the event is Michelin's fault rather than a global pandemic which is out of everyone's hands - so it's not an eggs for eggs comparison, but Ferrari's hand is not strong for expecting favours from others. It's only the fact that 3 other teams may be affected that could soften the stance of those not feeling charitable.

Another possibility - and I think this is a longshot and probably not legally possible - is that the teams and FIA agree to modify the championship points system to be like it was in the 80s, where you drop X worst results. This means that in the event that if some teams can't attend certain races, they'll just be covered by this.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:22 am 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
The FIA Sporting Regulations state that the Championship will still count so long as 8 races are held. This means 14 can be cancelled and we will still have a championship winner.

They also state that an event can only be cancelled if fewer than 12 cars are available. As only 4 teams are potentially affected by an Italy ban (Ferrari, Alpha Tauri, Alfa Romeo and Haas), this would mean that one more team would need to drop out for it to be cancelled on these grounds.

It's possible that the teams would consent to the race being a non championship event if Coronavirus prevents some teams from attending - although that would probably be wrapped up with several other legal stipulations (such as engine components used not being from the limited pool, and for this arrangement to be automatically reciprocated if other teams are prevented from attending later on, as it is looking like only a matter of time before an outbreak occurs in the south east of England)

Also, with the recent secretative FIA ruling, and several teams angry about it, it's also likely that those teams are not going to be in the mood to do Ferrari any favours. Not to mention, the Indy 2005 event, the Bridgestone teams played hardball and refused to run the event as a non championship event with a chicane. Of course, Michelin failing to build a tyre that is strong enough for the event is Michelin's fault rather than a global pandemic which is out of everyone's hands - so it's not an eggs for eggs comparison, but Ferrari's hand is not strong for expecting favours from others. It's only the fact that 3 other teams may be affected that could soften the stance of those not feeling charitable.

Another possibility - and I think this is a longshot and probably not legally possible - is that the teams and FIA agree to modify the championship points system to be like it was in the 80s, where you drop X worst results. This means that in the event that if some teams can't attend certain races, they'll just be covered by this.


As I mentioned in an earlier post, if there's an Italy ban, won't Pirelli also be affected?

I don't know where the F1 tyres are made, but their headquarters are in Milan, and CDC are advising against visiting Lombardy

If Pirelli can't travel, that's all teams affected, not just four


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:30 am 
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How about we have Australia 1, Australia 2, Australia 3 and Australia 4? That would cover the first 4 races and they could probably cut some gaps if they don't have to pack up and move :)

One could trial a reverse grid even if points were not recorded - or some other options


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:31 am 
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Argentum wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
The FIA Sporting Regulations state that the Championship will still count so long as 8 races are held. This means 14 can be cancelled and we will still have a championship winner.

They also state that an event can only be cancelled if fewer than 12 cars are available. As only 4 teams are potentially affected by an Italy ban (Ferrari, Alpha Tauri, Alfa Romeo and Haas), this would mean that one more team would need to drop out for it to be cancelled on these grounds.

It's possible that the teams would consent to the race being a non championship event if Coronavirus prevents some teams from attending - although that would probably be wrapped up with several other legal stipulations (such as engine components used not being from the limited pool, and for this arrangement to be automatically reciprocated if other teams are prevented from attending later on, as it is looking like only a matter of time before an outbreak occurs in the south east of England)

Also, with the recent secretative FIA ruling, and several teams angry about it, it's also likely that those teams are not going to be in the mood to do Ferrari any favours. Not to mention, the Indy 2005 event, the Bridgestone teams played hardball and refused to run the event as a non championship event with a chicane. Of course, Michelin failing to build a tyre that is strong enough for the event is Michelin's fault rather than a global pandemic which is out of everyone's hands - so it's not an eggs for eggs comparison, but Ferrari's hand is not strong for expecting favours from others. It's only the fact that 3 other teams may be affected that could soften the stance of those not feeling charitable.

Another possibility - and I think this is a longshot and probably not legally possible - is that the teams and FIA agree to modify the championship points system to be like it was in the 80s, where you drop X worst results. This means that in the event that if some teams can't attend certain races, they'll just be covered by this.


As I mentioned in an earlier post, if there's an Italy ban, won't Pirelli also be affected?

I don't know where the F1 tyres are made, but their headquarters are in Milan, and CDC are advising against visiting Lombardy

If Pirelli can't travel, that's all teams affected, not just four


Although the R&D is done in Italy, Pirelli's F1 tyres are manufactured in Turkey, according to this article:

https://www.pirelli.com/global/en-ww/ra ... me-to-life

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:44 am 
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Herb wrote:
Argentum wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
The FIA Sporting Regulations state that the Championship will still count so long as 8 races are held. This means 14 can be cancelled and we will still have a championship winner.

They also state that an event can only be cancelled if fewer than 12 cars are available. As only 4 teams are potentially affected by an Italy ban (Ferrari, Alpha Tauri, Alfa Romeo and Haas), this would mean that one more team would need to drop out for it to be cancelled on these grounds.

It's possible that the teams would consent to the race being a non championship event if Coronavirus prevents some teams from attending - although that would probably be wrapped up with several other legal stipulations (such as engine components used not being from the limited pool, and for this arrangement to be automatically reciprocated if other teams are prevented from attending later on, as it is looking like only a matter of time before an outbreak occurs in the south east of England)

Also, with the recent secretative FIA ruling, and several teams angry about it, it's also likely that those teams are not going to be in the mood to do Ferrari any favours. Not to mention, the Indy 2005 event, the Bridgestone teams played hardball and refused to run the event as a non championship event with a chicane. Of course, Michelin failing to build a tyre that is strong enough for the event is Michelin's fault rather than a global pandemic which is out of everyone's hands - so it's not an eggs for eggs comparison, but Ferrari's hand is not strong for expecting favours from others. It's only the fact that 3 other teams may be affected that could soften the stance of those not feeling charitable.

Another possibility - and I think this is a longshot and probably not legally possible - is that the teams and FIA agree to modify the championship points system to be like it was in the 80s, where you drop X worst results. This means that in the event that if some teams can't attend certain races, they'll just be covered by this.


As I mentioned in an earlier post, if there's an Italy ban, won't Pirelli also be affected?

I don't know where the F1 tyres are made, but their headquarters are in Milan, and CDC are advising against visiting Lombardy

If Pirelli can't travel, that's all teams affected, not just four


Although the R&D is done in Italy, Pirelli's F1 tyres are manufactured in Turkey, according to this article:

https://www.pirelli.com/global/en-ww/ra ... me-to-life


Thanks


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:09 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
The FIA Sporting Regulations state that the Championship will still count so long as 8 races are held. This means 14 can be cancelled and we will still have a championship winner.

They also state that an event can only be cancelled if fewer than 12 cars are available. As only 4 teams are potentially affected by an Italy ban (Ferrari, Alpha Tauri, Alfa Romeo and Haas), this would mean that one more team would need to drop out for it to be cancelled on these grounds.

It's possible that the teams would consent to the race being a non championship event if Coronavirus prevents some teams from attending - although that would probably be wrapped up with several other legal stipulations (such as engine components used not being from the limited pool, and for this arrangement to be automatically reciprocated if other teams are prevented from attending later on, as it is looking like only a matter of time before an outbreak occurs in the south east of England)

Also, with the recent secretative FIA ruling, and several teams angry about it, it's also likely that those teams are not going to be in the mood to do Ferrari any favours. Not to mention, the Indy 2005 event, the Bridgestone teams played hardball and refused to run the event as a non championship event with a chicane. Of course, Michelin failing to build a tyre that is strong enough for the event is Michelin's fault rather than a global pandemic which is out of everyone's hands - so it's not an eggs for eggs comparison, but Ferrari's hand is not strong for expecting favours from others. It's only the fact that 3 other teams may be affected that could soften the stance of those not feeling charitable.

Another possibility - and I think this is a longshot and probably not legally possible - is that the teams and FIA agree to modify the championship points system to be like it was in the 80s, where you drop X worst results. This means that in the event that if some teams can't attend certain races, they'll just be covered by this.

https://www.planetf1.com/news/formula-1-coronavirus/

Quote:
As countries such as Bahrain and Vietnam introduce travel bans, Formula 1 sporting boss Ross Brawn has made it clear that F1 won’t hold championship races unless all 10 teams are present.
If things get worse in Italy the season is over


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:18 pm 
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MotoGP in USA scheduled for 5th April a major doubt after Austin announced a state of emergency banning events of more than 2500 people unless they could guarantee coronavirus prevention

Lots of major music festivals have been cancelled

F1 staying quiet but season looking like it's going to be a complete mess. The mortality rate for the elederly is over 10% so I think travel restrictions going to get worse before they get better


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:02 pm 
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The Italian Grand Prix is not until September. The way things are going, by that time the virus will have been pretty much everywhere and I suspect the peak will have passed.

As others have said above, I expect this to disrupt the first half of the season but there'll be enough races overall for us to have a championship. I agree with Ross Brawn though, we should not be holding races unless all the teams can attend.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:13 pm 
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j man wrote:
The Italian Grand Prix is not until September. The way things are going, by that time the virus will have been pretty much everywhere and I suspect the peak will have passed.

As others have said above, I expect this to disrupt the first half of the season but there'll be enough races overall for us to have a championship. I agree with Ross Brawn though, we should not be holding races unless all the teams can attend.


Question on Ross Brawn saying they won't hold 'championship races'. Does that mean there will be races that don't count towards the championship if teams can't get there or the races just won't happen? If so, I would assume those races don't count for engine/gearbox component usage.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:52 am 
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More significantly, the region of Lombardy, which includes Modena where Ferrari is based is going into a 1 month lock down where people will not be allowed in or out of the province until April 3rd.

Most F1 people have already left for Australia, however this will impact Ferrari as they can't return to the region until April 3rd.

There are some exceptions that cover people entering and leaving for critical work, but the definition for this is very rigorous and it's not known if F1 would count.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:28 am 
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It’s been announced that Bahrain will be a participant only event. We’re still two weeks away from that race so I guess a chance that it could still be postponed but this seems a sensible move at the moment.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:13 am 
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I wonder how much money would be lost by doing that? I've no idea but I get the feeling that its financially better to run the race at an empty circuit rather than postpone it to a later date.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:56 am 
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Option or Prime wrote:
I wonder how much money would be lost by doing that? I've no idea but I get the feeling that its financially better to run the race at an empty circuit rather than postpone it to a later date.

Yes. And how many would show up if it was open to the public.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:11 pm 
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jimmyj wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
I wonder how much money would be lost by doing that? I've no idea but I get the feeling that its financially better to run the race at an empty circuit rather than postpone it to a later date.

Yes. And how many would show up if it was open to the public.


Without any quarantine restriction a lot. If you are under 60 the mortality rate is comparable with the flu.


If you have a 100,000 people and they spend average $1000 (travel, hotels, restaurants, tickets, local entertainment, rental cars etc) that's $100,000, 000+ hit to the local economy


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:14 pm 
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Zazu wrote:
jimmyj wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:
I wonder how much money would be lost by doing that? I've no idea but I get the feeling that its financially better to run the race at an empty circuit rather than postpone it to a later date.

Yes. And how many would show up if it was open to the public.


Without any quarantine restriction a lot. If you are under 60 the mortality rate is comparable with the flu.


If you have a 100,000 people and they spend average $1000 (travel, hotels, restaurants, tickets, local entertainment, rental cars etc) that's $100,000, 000+ hit to the local economy


The Bahrain race is sportswashing though, they probably aren’t as bothered by the money hit as most would be. Like UAE and Qatar in football (City and PSG) it’s a high cost PR campaign for the country.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:06 pm 
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Postpone F1 2020 to July in the interest of public health and safety. Anyway football leagues start mid year so I don't see what's the issue.


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:48 pm 
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Option or Prime wrote:
I wonder how much money would be lost by doing that? I've no idea but I get the feeling that its financially better to run the race at an empty circuit rather than postpone it to a later date.


I’d say the event is insured, so they’ll recoup it that way


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:26 am 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
More significantly, the region of Lombardy, which includes Modena where Ferrari is based is going into a 1 month lock down where people will not be allowed in or out of the province until April 3rd.

Most F1 people have already left for Australia, however this will impact Ferrari as they can't return to the region until April 3rd.

There are some exceptions that cover people entering and leaving for critical work, but the definition for this is very rigorous and it's not known if F1 would count.


This is just not Ferrari's year, is it??

I read about this, it seems that they will have a lockdown in their HQ's. I wonder if they will be able to ship spare parts etc. if needed


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:03 pm 
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The worst day for Covid-19 victims so far was Feb 10th when 108 people died across the world.

On the same day, 123 drowned in their bath...

Let's keep some perspective on the situation


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:43 pm 
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Battle Far wrote:
The worst day for Covid-19 victims so far was Feb 10th when 108 people died across the world.

On the same day, 123 drowned in their bath...

Let's keep some perspective on the situation


Agree. To me a lot of people have lost all perspective of the virus, & I believe a lot of it thanks to the sensationalist reporting of the media.

Australia has a reported 90 cases of the virus. 90 out of a population of 24,000,000 with 3 deaths attributed to the virus. 1 person in their 70's, 1 in their 80'e & 1 in their 90's. There's more people who live in my shire than people infected worldwide. Since the virus first hit the news on the final day of last year, approx. 10 weeks ago, as of today a sum total of 108,000 people globally have been infected. 108,000 people out of a global population of 7.7 billion.

Yet despite the relatively small number of people infected, for some dumb reason, last Monday 2nd March, people in my country, en masse, suddenly decided to rush the supermarkets nation wide & start hoarding not food, water or medication but God damn toilet paper. The virus doesn't even give you the run's but amazingly the need to buy bulk toilet paper became so urgent that 2 women actually came to blows over a pack & the cops had to Tazer 1 guy because he resisted arrest for becoming too violent whilst in pursuit of the now rare commodity

Difficult to see how the containment measures put in place in Italy won't have at least some adverse affect on Ferrari over the next few races but they are Ferrari, the heart & soul of Italy, so they might be able to work something out with the government regarding passage.

I just hope all the F1 teams have their supply of toilet paper under tight security while they're here.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:26 pm 
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Its absolutely baffling Italy has pretty much closed down the entire country but Ferrari will be fine as work and other exemptions are permitted

Its all driven by the media, CNN have taken it upon themselves to upgrade it to a pandemic. This is the price you pay when they have to fill news channels 24/7


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:29 pm 
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Battle Far wrote:
The worst day for Covid-19 victims so far was Feb 10th when 108 people died across the world.

On the same day, 123 drowned in their bath...

Let's keep some perspective on the situation


Even if accurate, those sort of comparisons aren't helpful. Many, many more people than were suffering from Covid-19 took a bath on that day (I would hope...).

It's also not necessarily the death rate (which is way, way higher than of taking a bath) that is the main problem. Many of those at risk need hospital care if they contract the disease, putting our already stretched NHS at risk.

No, we shouldn't be panicking, but its is definitely a global concern that requires action to slow down the spread of infection.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:10 pm 
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Herb wrote:
It's also not necessarily the death rate (which is way, way higher than of taking a bath) that is the main problem. Many of those at risk need hospital care if they contract the disease, putting our already stretched NHS at risk.

No, we shouldn't be panicking, but its is definitely a global concern that requires action to slow down the spread of infection.

Indeed. There's a happy medium between the media panic (which is very overblown) and assertions that it's not really dangerous (it is, just not to healthy people under 60).

Even if the death rate is nowhere near the 2-3% it currently tracks as (and that percent has been very stable since the outbreak began, so personally I'm inclined to believe it's at least close), potentially hundreds of thousands of people becoming sick will cause all sorts of problems on its own. In the USA, they may face bankruptcy if they're hospitalized. Overcrowded hospitals will affect everyone who needs to visit them for any reason. If you work in the travel or event business, your work will be impacted. If you're a minimum wage worker in the US, you can't take time off and you'll probably lose your job if you get sick.

There's a lot more to a major outbreak than the death toll.

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PICK 10 COMPETITION (4 wins, 15 podiums): 3rd in 2016
TOP THREE CHAMPIONSHIP (No Limit Excedrin Racing): Champions in 2015 & 2018 | 2nd in 2017 & 2019
AUTOSPORT GP PREDICTOR: 2017 USA & P-F1 Champion


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:59 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I think we'll lose a lot of the early races. Bahrain definitely. Vietnam, I can see them going to extraordinary lengths to try and keep the race on but ultimately not being able to. And then the early part of the European calendar has got to be under threat as well, given it's two months away and that gives it plenty of time to spread, become a full-blown pandemic and really start resulting in a lot of large scale events not happening.


Actually that may end up being the opposite. The reason for containment is to try and avoid this becoming and pandemic. Usually a pandemic is called when containment has failed and become futile. Containment may well be wound down and focus will turn elsewhere in terms of finding and developing vaccines and treatments.

Note we had a pandemic 10 years ago which did not result in events being cancelled.

Not all pandemics are created equal. China is already 'postponed' (with no alternate date)
Bahrain, and even Vietnam could go ahead, although profitability has to dire.

After that..... it is hard to see the season not ending unless something change the trends


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:24 am 
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iano wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Jenson's Understeer wrote:
I think we'll lose a lot of the early races. Bahrain definitely. Vietnam, I can see them going to extraordinary lengths to try and keep the race on but ultimately not being able to. And then the early part of the European calendar has got to be under threat as well, given it's two months away and that gives it plenty of time to spread, become a full-blown pandemic and really start resulting in a lot of large scale events not happening.


Actually that may end up being the opposite. The reason for containment is to try and avoid this becoming and pandemic. Usually a pandemic is called when containment has failed and become futile. Containment may well be wound down and focus will turn elsewhere in terms of finding and developing vaccines and treatments.

Note we had a pandemic 10 years ago which did not result in events being cancelled.

Not all pandemics are created equal. China is already 'postponed' (with no alternate date)
Bahrain, and even Vietnam could go ahead, although profitability has to dire.

After that..... it is hard to see the season not ending unless something change the trends


It depends on the various strategies of the countries visited. In the UK we are already moving from the containment into the delay period.

If Silverstone was this weekend it would be going ahead.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:25 am 
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Deaths by drowning are a relative constant and do not grow exponentially.

The exponential growth of Covid-19 has only slowed in countries that have limited people movement in areas with severe outbreaks. And areas with more than a handful of cases usually end up becoming severe. The death rate also lags behind the infection rate.

This has all the makings of the millennium bug. People actually believe it was a fuss over nothing because the stock market didn't crash and planes stayed in the air when the year 2000 started. The reason that didn't happen was because of the hard work of the computer industry to make sure there wasn't a disaster.

Coronavirus will be the same. Either tens or hundreds of millions of people will die because precautions aren't taken, or precautions are taken and a much smaller number of people will die. In which case those same loud mouths will take to their keyboards and write "see, told you corona virus was a lot of panic about nothing"


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:15 pm 
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Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Deaths by drowning are a relative constant and do not grow exponentially.

The exponential growth of Covid-19 has only slowed in countries that have limited people movement in areas with severe outbreaks. And areas with more than a handful of cases usually end up becoming severe. The death rate also lags behind the infection rate.

This has all the makings of the millennium bug. People actually believe it was a fuss over nothing because the stock market didn't crash and planes stayed in the air when the year 2000 started. The reason that didn't happen was because of the hard work of the computer industry to make sure there wasn't a disaster.

Coronavirus will be the same. Either tens or hundreds of millions of people will die because precautions aren't taken, or precautions are taken and a much smaller number of people will die. In which case those same loud mouths will take to their keyboards and write "see, told you corona virus was a lot of panic about nothing"

Spot on Alien. Death by drowning is not normally contagious, so the comparison is not valid for me...

I do not understand people saying that we have more deaths from other things. So what? Should there be no measure what-so-ever? Fighting over toilet paper is unfortunately the way it goes with the crowd psychology and it paints a bad picture over this whole thing. But if we did nothing about it, the spread would surely have been far far worse than the numbers we have now.


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