How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

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pokerman
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
KingVoid wrote:I would estimate qualifying speed to be something like this:

Verstappen (quickest)
Hamilton (+0.100s)
Ricciardo = Alonso (+0.170s)
So going off of this, what would Leclerc need to average over Vettel to be estimated as being on Max's pace?
About 0.25s going off what KingVoid has just posted.
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sandman1347
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
KingVoid wrote:I would estimate qualifying speed to be something like this:

Verstappen (quickest)
Hamilton (+0.100s)
Ricciardo = Alonso (+0.170s)
So going off of this, what would Leclerc need to average over Vettel to be estimated as being on Max's pace?
About 0.25s going off what KingVoid has just posted.
Who cares? What he just posted was nothing more than make believe.

mikeyg123
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
KingVoid wrote:I would estimate qualifying speed to be something like this:

Verstappen (quickest)
Hamilton (+0.100s)
Ricciardo = Alonso (+0.170s)
So going off of this, what would Leclerc need to average over Vettel to be estimated as being on Max's pace?
About 0.25s going off what KingVoid has just posted.
Who cares? What he just posted was nothing more than make believe.
I care. I find it interesting.

sandman1347
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Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 7:55 pm

Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
KingVoid wrote:I would estimate qualifying speed to be something like this:

Verstappen (quickest)
Hamilton (+0.100s)
Ricciardo = Alonso (+0.170s)
So going off of this, what would Leclerc need to average over Vettel to be estimated as being on Max's pace?
About 0.25s going off what KingVoid has just posted.
Who cares? What he just posted was nothing more than make believe.
I care. I find it interesting.
To each his own I guess

mikeyg123
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote: So going off of this, what would Leclerc need to average over Vettel to be estimated as being on Max's pace?
About 0.25s going off what KingVoid has just posted.
Who cares? What he just posted was nothing more than make believe.
I care. I find it interesting.
To each his own I guess
Exactly

ReservoirDog
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by ReservoirDog »

sandman1347 wrote:
FormulaFun wrote:
jeffw wrote:And a shame we will never see Lewis -vs- Max head to head in the same car.
Rumor has it Max turned down opportunity to join Merc - would be VERY interesting to find out how accurate that is, but we basically won't know definitively for many years if ever
Contrary to what some overzealous fans online say, Max understands that racing against Hamilton in the same car would not be advantageous for him.
I love when you pass your opinions as facts. Did Max personally tell you this?

KingVoid
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by KingVoid »

sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
KingVoid wrote:I would estimate qualifying speed to be something like this:

Verstappen (quickest)
Hamilton (+0.100s)
Ricciardo = Alonso (+0.170s)
So going off of this, what would Leclerc need to average over Vettel to be estimated as being on Max's pace?
About 0.25s going off what KingVoid has just posted.
Who cares? What he just posted was nothing more than make believe.
Out of curiosity, where do you estimate Verstappen compares to Hamilton in terms of pure speed? Is he quicker or slower, and by how much?

sandman1347
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

KingVoid wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
KingVoid wrote:I would estimate qualifying speed to be something like this:

Verstappen (quickest)
Hamilton (+0.100s)
Ricciardo = Alonso (+0.170s)
So going off of this, what would Leclerc need to average over Vettel to be estimated as being on Max's pace?
About 0.25s going off what KingVoid has just posted.
Who cares? What he just posted was nothing more than make believe.
Out of curiosity, where do you estimate Verstappen compares to Hamilton in terms of pure speed? Is he quicker or slower, and by how much?
There's only one way to find out.

mikeyg123
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

sandman1347 wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote: So going off of this, what would Leclerc need to average over Vettel to be estimated as being on Max's pace?
About 0.25s going off what KingVoid has just posted.
Who cares? What he just posted was nothing more than make believe.
Out of curiosity, where do you estimate Verstappen compares to Hamilton in terms of pure speed? Is he quicker or slower, and by how much?
There's only one way to find out.
But plenty of ways to estimate. Which was what was asked.

sandman1347
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: There's only one way to find out.
But plenty of ways to estimate. Which was what was asked.
To my thinking, there is no reason to expect another driver to be able to beat either of them in the same car. Hamilton has been in F1 for 13 years and he has had numerous teammates over that time. All of his teammates have been drivers who spent the vast majority of their careers beating their teammates and Hamilton has been faster than them all. Combined, his teammates have won 75 races and 4 WDCs so that's about as proven as you can get.

Max has been around a much shorter period of time but he has already been teamed with one really strong driver in Daniel Ricciardo and, by the time Daniel left the team, Max had firmly gained the upper hand.

There is no reason to assume that either of them would lose to another driver in the same car and there is no real way to estimate how they would compare to each other. I would estimate that, in terms of raw speed, Max is the only driver in F1 right now who might be on Hamilton's level. He also might not be quite as fast. It's also possible that he has the slight edge. All of those things are possible.

What I would say is that they both have another thing in common as well. Hamilton, in spite of his great qualifying record, is actually stronger in terms of race pace than he is as a qualifier. His race pace has been untouchable throughout his entire career. Aside from perhaps his rookie year with Fernando Alonso as a teammate, there has never been a driver who could match his pace in the same car on race day.

Max has also shown a very strong race pace; especially from around 2017. I would stop short of suggesting that it is on par with Lewis because, again, there's no real way to know that but he has shown an ability to, fairly consistently, squeeze the maximum from the car. If I had to guess, I would guess that they are probably fairly equal in qualifying but that Lewis would be faster in the race more often than not. That's just a guess though (as are all of the other posts in here).

KingVoid
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by KingVoid »

Verstappen’s race pace since the beginning of 2017 was a clear step above Ricciardo. Ricciardo beat Vettel as teammates and is certainly not a slower driver than Button or Rosberg on Sunday (IMO).

Personally, I’m not buying the claim that Lewis has better race pace. Max’s race pace and tyre management is monstrous.

Again, this is mostly guesswork and cross comparisons. I judge Verstappen on how easily he handled Ricciardo, and I judge Ricciardo by how he handled Vettel and is controlling Hulkenberg at the moment.

Junglist
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Junglist »

I don't have much to add but cross referencing rarely works in sports let alone a sport with so many variables.

It's like boxing. The triangle theory rarely works. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B who beat Fighter C does not mean fighter A automatically beats C. Styles makes fights.

A different driver might have a different driving style which could adapt to a different car in drastic ways. Saying someone beats someone else just because they may share a common opponent is quite a lazy comparison, in my opinion.

mikeyg123
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Junglist wrote:I don't have much to add but cross referencing rarely works in sports let alone a sport with so many variables.

It's like boxing. The triangle theory rarely works. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B who beat Fighter C does not mean fighter A automatically beats C. Styles makes fights.

A different driver might have a different driving style which could adapt to a different car in drastic ways. Saying someone beats someone else just because they may share a common opponent is quite a lazy comparison, in my opinion.
I think it's proven to work quite often in F1 tbh. It's certainly by far the best predictor we have.

Something like Boxing is a bit different because the fight is a one off. We would need at least a whole season to make an accurate assessment against a team mate.

Siao7
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Siao7 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Junglist wrote:I don't have much to add but cross referencing rarely works in sports let alone a sport with so many variables.

It's like boxing. The triangle theory rarely works. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B who beat Fighter C does not mean fighter A automatically beats C. Styles makes fights.

A different driver might have a different driving style which could adapt to a different car in drastic ways. Saying someone beats someone else just because they may share a common opponent is quite a lazy comparison, in my opinion.
I think it's proven to work quite often in F1 tbh. It's certainly by far the best predictor we have.

Something like Boxing is a bit different because the fight is a one off. We would need at least a whole season to make an accurate assessment against a team mate.
I agree, also in F1 it is between pairs of drivers using as identical equipment as possible. Let's not forget that this is a sport that is heavily depended on the equipment. Pitting two drivers in the same team is the closest thing you can get.

Having said that, I do find that the A>B and B>C doesn't mean A>C to be necessarily true, we have seen drivers pitting against one team mate and then not doing well against another. But that could also be down to anything, car not suiting their style, etc. So it is a very difficult thing to gauge.

The only thing that I can remember that kind of gave us a proper analysis was that article for Rubens and Michael that analysed their style, checked the telemetries and showed who was stronger and where, where were they gaining times, etc. Closest thing I have seen to a driver comparison.

mikeyg123
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Siao7 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Junglist wrote:I don't have much to add but cross referencing rarely works in sports let alone a sport with so many variables.

It's like boxing. The triangle theory rarely works. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B who beat Fighter C does not mean fighter A automatically beats C. Styles makes fights.

A different driver might have a different driving style which could adapt to a different car in drastic ways. Saying someone beats someone else just because they may share a common opponent is quite a lazy comparison, in my opinion.
I think it's proven to work quite often in F1 tbh. It's certainly by far the best predictor we have.

Something like Boxing is a bit different because the fight is a one off. We would need at least a whole season to make an accurate assessment against a team mate.
I agree, also in F1 it is between pairs of drivers using as identical equipment as possible. Let's not forget that this is a sport that is heavily depended on the equipment. Pitting two drivers in the same team is the closest thing you can get.

Having said that, I do find that the A>B and B>C doesn't mean A>C to be necessarily true, we have seen drivers pitting against one team mate and then not doing well against another. But that could also be down to anything, car not suiting their style, etc. So it is a very difficult thing to gauge.

The only thing that I can remember that kind of gave us a proper analysis was that article for Rubens and Michael that analysed their style, checked the telemetries and showed who was stronger and where, where were they gaining times, etc. Closest thing I have seen to a driver comparison.
If you remove a drivers rookie season and final season it's almost always true. There a couple of exceptions but I would say it's true at least 80-90 percent of the time.

Option or Prime
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Option or Prime »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Junglist wrote:I don't have much to add but cross referencing rarely works in sports let alone a sport with so many variables.

It's like boxing. The triangle theory rarely works. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B who beat Fighter C does not mean fighter A automatically beats C. Styles makes fights.

A different driver might have a different driving style which could adapt to a different car in drastic ways. Saying someone beats someone else just because they may share a common opponent is quite a lazy comparison, in my opinion.
I think it's proven to work quite often in F1 tbh. It's certainly by far the best predictor we have.

Something like Boxing is a bit different because the fight is a one off. We would need at least a whole season to make an accurate assessment against a team mate.
Not sure how it is proven to work really. Even in the same team there are other variables and in any event fastest does not mean the most successful.
I'm pretty sceptical about the whole process, it depends how you donkeys success. Is it being fast or is it winning races?

Junglist
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Junglist »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Junglist wrote:I don't have much to add but cross referencing rarely works in sports let alone a sport with so many variables.

It's like boxing. The triangle theory rarely works. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B who beat Fighter C does not mean fighter A automatically beats C. Styles makes fights.

A different driver might have a different driving style which could adapt to a different car in drastic ways. Saying someone beats someone else just because they may share a common opponent is quite a lazy comparison, in my opinion.
I think it's proven to work quite often in F1 tbh. It's certainly by far the best predictor we have.

Something like Boxing is a bit different because the fight is a one off. We would need at least a whole season to make an accurate assessment against a team mate.
Oh I get that it's a bit different but I just don't agree with the triangle theory. F1 has lots of variables within teams as it is let alone across teams and different cars. Just using mutual opponents to decide who is faster doesn't really convince me. For me to say definitively who is quicker would require them to share a few years in the same team together - everything else is just speculation and bias. Hell, I'm more of a Hamilton fan than I am Verstappen so naturally I'd think he is quicker because I've seen more proof of his talent rather than just the promise of talent. Doesn't mean it's right though, until they share the same car for a few years it's going to be fans of one driver saying their guy is faster than the other.

mikeyg123
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Junglist wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Junglist wrote:I don't have much to add but cross referencing rarely works in sports let alone a sport with so many variables.

It's like boxing. The triangle theory rarely works. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B who beat Fighter C does not mean fighter A automatically beats C. Styles makes fights.

A different driver might have a different driving style which could adapt to a different car in drastic ways. Saying someone beats someone else just because they may share a common opponent is quite a lazy comparison, in my opinion.
I think it's proven to work quite often in F1 tbh. It's certainly by far the best predictor we have.

Something like Boxing is a bit different because the fight is a one off. We would need at least a whole season to make an accurate assessment against a team mate.
Oh I get that it's a bit different but I just don't agree with the triangle theory. F1 has lots of variables within teams as it is let alone across teams and different cars. Just using mutual opponents to decide who is faster doesn't really convince me. For me to say definitively who is quicker would require them to share a few years in the same team together - everything else is just speculation and bias. Hell, I'm more of a Hamilton fan than I am Verstappen so naturally I'd think he is quicker because I've seen more proof of his talent rather than just the promise of talent. Doesn't mean it's right though, until they share the same car for a few years it's going to be fans of one driver saying their guy is faster than the other.
I just think it's been shown to work in F1 with enough regularity to carry weight.

mikeyg123
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Option or Prime wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Junglist wrote:I don't have much to add but cross referencing rarely works in sports let alone a sport with so many variables.

It's like boxing. The triangle theory rarely works. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B who beat Fighter C does not mean fighter A automatically beats C. Styles makes fights.

A different driver might have a different driving style which could adapt to a different car in drastic ways. Saying someone beats someone else just because they may share a common opponent is quite a lazy comparison, in my opinion.
I think it's proven to work quite often in F1 tbh. It's certainly by far the best predictor we have.

Something like Boxing is a bit different because the fight is a one off. We would need at least a whole season to make an accurate assessment against a team mate.
Not sure how it is proven to work really. Even in the same team there are other variables and in any event fastest does not mean the most successful.
I'm pretty sceptical about the whole process, it depends how you donkeys success. Is it being fast or is it winning races?
Quite simple if A beats B and B beats or matches C then we could predict A would beat C. And we have seen far more examples of A beating C in that circumstance than C beating A.

Provided none of the drivers in the formula were in their rookie or retirement years.

Siao7
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Siao7 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Junglist wrote:I don't have much to add but cross referencing rarely works in sports let alone a sport with so many variables.

It's like boxing. The triangle theory rarely works. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B who beat Fighter C does not mean fighter A automatically beats C. Styles makes fights.

A different driver might have a different driving style which could adapt to a different car in drastic ways. Saying someone beats someone else just because they may share a common opponent is quite a lazy comparison, in my opinion.
I think it's proven to work quite often in F1 tbh. It's certainly by far the best predictor we have.

Something like Boxing is a bit different because the fight is a one off. We would need at least a whole season to make an accurate assessment against a team mate.
I agree, also in F1 it is between pairs of drivers using as identical equipment as possible. Let's not forget that this is a sport that is heavily depended on the equipment. Pitting two drivers in the same team is the closest thing you can get.

Having said that, I do find that the A>B and B>C doesn't mean A>C to be necessarily true, we have seen drivers pitting against one team mate and then not doing well against another. But that could also be down to anything, car not suiting their style, etc. So it is a very difficult thing to gauge.

The only thing that I can remember that kind of gave us a proper analysis was that article for Rubens and Michael that analysed their style, checked the telemetries and showed who was stronger and where, where were they gaining times, etc. Closest thing I have seen to a driver comparison.
If you remove a drivers rookie season and final season it's almost always true. There a couple of exceptions but I would say it's true at least 80-90 percent of the time.
That's why I included the "necessarily" part in that sentence. It work most times, but then again not always. In fairness I can't think of many such comparisons straight out of my head

Junglist
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Junglist »

Siao7 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Junglist wrote:I don't have much to add but cross referencing rarely works in sports let alone a sport with so many variables.

It's like boxing. The triangle theory rarely works. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B who beat Fighter C does not mean fighter A automatically beats C. Styles makes fights.

A different driver might have a different driving style which could adapt to a different car in drastic ways. Saying someone beats someone else just because they may share a common opponent is quite a lazy comparison, in my opinion.
I think it's proven to work quite often in F1 tbh. It's certainly by far the best predictor we have.

Something like Boxing is a bit different because the fight is a one off. We would need at least a whole season to make an accurate assessment against a team mate.
I agree, also in F1 it is between pairs of drivers using as identical equipment as possible. Let's not forget that this is a sport that is heavily depended on the equipment. Pitting two drivers in the same team is the closest thing you can get.

Having said that, I do find that the A>B and B>C doesn't mean A>C to be necessarily true, we have seen drivers pitting against one team mate and then not doing well against another. But that could also be down to anything, car not suiting their style, etc. So it is a very difficult thing to gauge.

The only thing that I can remember that kind of gave us a proper analysis was that article for Rubens and Michael that analysed their style, checked the telemetries and showed who was stronger and where, where were they gaining times, etc. Closest thing I have seen to a driver comparison.
you've articulately said what I was unable to say

mikeyg123
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Siao7 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Junglist wrote:I don't have much to add but cross referencing rarely works in sports let alone a sport with so many variables.

It's like boxing. The triangle theory rarely works. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B who beat Fighter C does not mean fighter A automatically beats C. Styles makes fights.

A different driver might have a different driving style which could adapt to a different car in drastic ways. Saying someone beats someone else just because they may share a common opponent is quite a lazy comparison, in my opinion.
I think it's proven to work quite often in F1 tbh. It's certainly by far the best predictor we have.

Something like Boxing is a bit different because the fight is a one off. We would need at least a whole season to make an accurate assessment against a team mate.
I agree, also in F1 it is between pairs of drivers using as identical equipment as possible. Let's not forget that this is a sport that is heavily depended on the equipment. Pitting two drivers in the same team is the closest thing you can get.

Having said that, I do find that the A>B and B>C doesn't mean A>C to be necessarily true, we have seen drivers pitting against one team mate and then not doing well against another. But that could also be down to anything, car not suiting their style, etc. So it is a very difficult thing to gauge.

The only thing that I can remember that kind of gave us a proper analysis was that article for Rubens and Michael that analysed their style, checked the telemetries and showed who was stronger and where, where were they gaining times, etc. Closest thing I have seen to a driver comparison.
If you remove a drivers rookie season and final season it's almost always true. There a couple of exceptions but I would say it's true at least 80-90 percent of the time.
That's why I included the "necessarily" part in that sentence. It work most times, but then again not always. In fairness I can't think of many such comparisons straight out of my head
Neither can I off hand but there must be some :lol:

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Invade
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Invade »

I can't really take this seriously because of the lack of direct comparisons in order to then guesstimate between Lewis and Max.

mikeyg123
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Invade wrote:I can't really take this seriously because of the lack of direct comparisons in order to then guesstimate between Lewis and Max.
Hamilton - Bottas - Massa - Kimi - Vettel - Ricciardo - Verstappen

Hamilton is better than Bottas who was a shade better than Massa who matched Kimi. Kimi got well beaten by Vettel who was beaten by Ricciardo who just lost out to Verstappen.

This would indicate Verstappen is slightly quicker than Hamilton.









I'm not entirely serious.

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Johnson
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Johnson »

Its an excellent guide, of course it can be -/+ 0.150 or so but for a lot fo comparisons that doesn't make too much of a difference.

It is especially true when so many metrics "prove" something and there aren't any counter metrics against it.

Hamilton > Massa can be proven using so many metrics.
There is no metric you can use to suggest Hamilton = Massa or Massa > Hamilton

You can use cross references between Alonso-Massa and Bottas-Massa as well as Fisichella-Alonso and Massa-Alonso. As well as Massa-Schumacher and Massa-Raikkonen to show that Massa never was a top driver. You can even extend metrics to Heidfeld-Raikkonen and Massa-Raikkonen.

In the dry races in 2008, Massa beat Hamilton 8-3 when both finished and one of those Hamilton wins includes Singapore that Massa would have won without Piquets crashgate. Without bad luck the figure would have been something like 10-4 in Massa's favour. Luckily for Hamilton, he is the best wet weather driver of his generation and Massa is one of the worst drivers in a top seat in the wet in living memory. But, people to this day still claim the Mclaren to be the better car or the cars equal.

Siao7
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Siao7 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I think it's proven to work quite often in F1 tbh. It's certainly by far the best predictor we have.

Something like Boxing is a bit different because the fight is a one off. We would need at least a whole season to make an accurate assessment against a team mate.
I agree, also in F1 it is between pairs of drivers using as identical equipment as possible. Let's not forget that this is a sport that is heavily depended on the equipment. Pitting two drivers in the same team is the closest thing you can get.

Having said that, I do find that the A>B and B>C doesn't mean A>C to be necessarily true, we have seen drivers pitting against one team mate and then not doing well against another. But that could also be down to anything, car not suiting their style, etc. So it is a very difficult thing to gauge.

The only thing that I can remember that kind of gave us a proper analysis was that article for Rubens and Michael that analysed their style, checked the telemetries and showed who was stronger and where, where were they gaining times, etc. Closest thing I have seen to a driver comparison.
If you remove a drivers rookie season and final season it's almost always true. There a couple of exceptions but I would say it's true at least 80-90 percent of the time.
That's why I included the "necessarily" part in that sentence. It work most times, but then again not always. In fairness I can't think of many such comparisons straight out of my head
Neither can I off hand but there must be some :lol:
To throw more oil into the fire, I also find that A>B one year doesn't mean that the same will be the case for the next year, it can be that B>A. It is not a set, constant value. This is why F1 is so difficult to predict. You also see drivers losing to others in junior formulae and then when both graduate in F1 the roles are reversed, with the second driver being nowhere

Siao7
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Siao7 »

Johnson wrote:Its an excellent guide, of course it can be -/+ 0.150 or so but for a lot fo comparisons that doesn't make too much of a difference.

It is especially true when so many metrics "prove" something and there aren't any counter metrics against it.

Hamilton > Massa can be proven using so many metrics.
There is no metric you can use to suggest Hamilton = Massa or Massa > Hamilton

You can use cross references between Alonso-Massa and Bottas-Massa as well as Fisichella-Alonso and Massa-Alonso. As well as Massa-Schumacher and Massa-Raikkonen to show that Massa never was a top driver. You can even extend metrics to Heidfeld-Raikkonen and Massa-Raikkonen.

In the dry races in 2008, Massa beat Hamilton 8-3 when both finished and one of those Hamilton wins includes Singapore that Massa would have won without Piquets crashgate. Without bad luck the figure would have been something like 10-4 in Massa's favour. Luckily for Hamilton, he is the best wet weather driver of his generation and Massa is one of the worst drivers in a top seat in the wet in living memory. But, people to this day still claim the Mclaren to be the better car or the cars equal.
Hamilton Massa though never raced in the same car. 2007 and 2008 the Ferrari was arguably the better car.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Siao7 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
I agree, also in F1 it is between pairs of drivers using as identical equipment as possible. Let's not forget that this is a sport that is heavily depended on the equipment. Pitting two drivers in the same team is the closest thing you can get.

Having said that, I do find that the A>B and B>C doesn't mean A>C to be necessarily true, we have seen drivers pitting against one team mate and then not doing well against another. But that could also be down to anything, car not suiting their style, etc. So it is a very difficult thing to gauge.

The only thing that I can remember that kind of gave us a proper analysis was that article for Rubens and Michael that analysed their style, checked the telemetries and showed who was stronger and where, where were they gaining times, etc. Closest thing I have seen to a driver comparison.
If you remove a drivers rookie season and final season it's almost always true. There a couple of exceptions but I would say it's true at least 80-90 percent of the time.
That's why I included the "necessarily" part in that sentence. It work most times, but then again not always. In fairness I can't think of many such comparisons straight out of my head
Neither can I off hand but there must be some :lol:
To throw more oil into the fire, I also find that A>B one year doesn't mean that the same will be the case for the next year, it can be that B>A. It is not a set, constant value. This is why F1 is so difficult to predict. You also see drivers losing to others in junior formulae and then when both graduate in F1 the roles are reversed, with the second driver being nowhere
Sure there is an ebb and flow. The more seasons drivers are team mates the more accurately a comparison can be made.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Johnson »

Not meaning to sound rude, of course Hamilton and Massa never raced in the same car, that's the sole point of making those kind of metrics to work out who is quicker out of drivers that never shared the same car...

Felipe Massa = Fernando Alonso in 2007. Massa just had worse luck and reliability so it ended 109-94, which was still very close.

It was arguable at the time that the 2007/08 Mclarens were quite equal. Now I think it is very clear which was the better cars and which drivers were the more talented. We even got the luxury of seeing Alonso paired with each of those two drivers.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Johnson wrote:Not meaning to sound rude, of course Hamilton and Massa never raced in the same car, that's the sole point of making those kind of metrics to work out who is quicker out of drivers that never shared the same car...

Felipe Massa = Fernando Alonso in 2007. Massa just had worse luck and reliability so it ended 109-94, which was still very close.

It was arguable at the time that the 2007/08 Mclarens were quite equal. Now I think it is very clear which was the better cars and which drivers were the more talented. We even got the luxury of seeing Alonso paired with each of those two drivers.
I think any possibility of the 2007/08 Ferrari and Mclaren's being equal ended when Alonso smashed Kimi to bits.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Siao7 »

Johnson wrote:Not meaning to sound rude, of course Hamilton and Massa never raced in the same car, that's the sole point of making those kind of metrics to work out who is quicker out of drivers that never shared the same car...

Felipe Massa = Fernando Alonso in 2007. Massa just had worse luck and reliability so it ended 109-94, which was still very close.

It was arguable at the time that the 2007/08 Mclarens were quite equal. Now I think it is very clear which was the better cars and which drivers were the more talented. We even got the luxury of seeing Alonso paired with each of those two drivers.
You are not rude, I should have been more specific. I wrote this with your last paragraph in mind, where you compared the dry races that both of them finished in 2008. It kind of threw me off!

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Johnson »

Siao7 wrote:
Johnson wrote:Not meaning to sound rude, of course Hamilton and Massa never raced in the same car, that's the sole point of making those kind of metrics to work out who is quicker out of drivers that never shared the same car...

Felipe Massa = Fernando Alonso in 2007. Massa just had worse luck and reliability so it ended 109-94, which was still very close.

It was arguable at the time that the 2007/08 Mclarens were quite equal. Now I think it is very clear which was the better cars and which drivers were the more talented. We even got the luxury of seeing Alonso paired with each of those two drivers.
You are not rude, I should have been more specific. I wrote this with your last paragraph in mind, where you compared the dry races that both of them finished in 2008. It kind of threw me off!
:thumbup: I did the dry races, because once you include the wet races it becomes a little more even. Hamilton finished 2-1 ahead in the wet races. He scored 22 points to Massa 9. They won him the title. Hamilton was also close to scoring 30 by winning Monza too but the weather changed and he had to stop again. Massa beat Hamilton 9-5 ahead when both finished in all races in 2008.

There was a notion that the Mclaren was great in the wet, but we have seen enough since to see that Hamilton is the best wet weather driver on his generation and Massa is hopeless in the wet - we did know that at the time though. Raikkonen who isn't great in the wet also stayed with Hamilton the entire first stint at Silverstone before Ferrari messed up his strategy only changing the rear tyres at his stop. Ferrari was at least equal in the wet, if not still superior.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Siao7 »

Johnson wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
Johnson wrote:Not meaning to sound rude, of course Hamilton and Massa never raced in the same car, that's the sole point of making those kind of metrics to work out who is quicker out of drivers that never shared the same car...

Felipe Massa = Fernando Alonso in 2007. Massa just had worse luck and reliability so it ended 109-94, which was still very close.

It was arguable at the time that the 2007/08 Mclarens were quite equal. Now I think it is very clear which was the better cars and which drivers were the more talented. We even got the luxury of seeing Alonso paired with each of those two drivers.
You are not rude, I should have been more specific. I wrote this with your last paragraph in mind, where you compared the dry races that both of them finished in 2008. It kind of threw me off!
:thumbup: I did the dry races, because once you include the wet races it becomes a little more even. Hamilton finished 2-1 ahead in the wet races. He scored 22 points to Massa 9. They won him the title. Hamilton was also close to scoring 30 by winning Monza too but the weather changed and he had to stop again. Massa beat Hamilton 9-5 ahead when both finished in all races in 2008.

There was a notion that the Mclaren was great in the wet, but we have seen enough since to see that Hamilton is the best wet weather driver on his generation and Massa is hopeless in the wet - we did know that at the time though. Raikkonen who isn't great in the wet also stayed with Hamilton the entire first stint at Silverstone before Ferrari messed up his strategy only changing the rear tyres at his stop. Ferrari was at least equal in the wet, if not still superior.
Yeah, Kimi made that big mistake that cost him the Spa race in 2008 as well, regardless of the whole Hamilton incident.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
KingVoid wrote:I would estimate qualifying speed to be something like this:

Verstappen (quickest)
Hamilton (+0.100s)
Ricciardo = Alonso (+0.170s)
So going off of this, what would Leclerc need to average over Vettel to be estimated as being on Max's pace?
About 0.25s going off what KingVoid has just posted.
Who cares? What he just posted was nothing more than make believe.
No it's based on career qualifying numbers.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Invade »

I rewatched much of the 2008 season recently. Australia 2008 has to be one of the biggest clownshows ever with the amount of incidents, finishers and terrible driving.
Last edited by Invade on Fri Jul 19, 2019 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
KingVoid wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote: About 0.25s going off what KingVoid has just posted.
Who cares? What he just posted was nothing more than make believe.
Out of curiosity, where do you estimate Verstappen compares to Hamilton in terms of pure speed? Is he quicker or slower, and by how much?
There's only one way to find out.
But plenty of ways to estimate. Which was what was asked.
Indeed like we could estimate things like Alonso beating Kimi and Hamilton beating Bottas.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:Verstappen’s race pace since the beginning of 2017 was a clear step above Ricciardo. Ricciardo beat Vettel as teammates and is certainly not a slower driver than Button or Rosberg on Sunday (IMO).

Personally, I’m not buying the claim that Lewis has better race pace. Max’s race pace and tyre management is monstrous.

Again, this is mostly guesswork and cross comparisons. I judge Verstappen on how easily he handled Ricciardo, and I judge Ricciardo by how he handled Vettel and is controlling Hulkenberg at the moment.
Race pace is something that is much harder to measure, in respect to Hamilton he's always beat his teammates over the course in qualifying but even more so in race pace.

With the most poles in F1 history this would point to Hamilton staking a claim to be the best qualifier in F1 in respect to being a qualifying expert but I actually don't think that's the strongest part of his game, he gets beat more often than he really should.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Junglist wrote:I don't have much to add but cross referencing rarely works in sports let alone a sport with so many variables.

It's like boxing. The triangle theory rarely works. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B who beat Fighter C does not mean fighter A automatically beats C. Styles makes fights.

A different driver might have a different driving style which could adapt to a different car in drastic ways. Saying someone beats someone else just because they may share a common opponent is quite a lazy comparison, in my opinion.
A boxer can get caught by a lucky punch or can carry an injury into a fight, plus a fight is a one off event whereas qualifying happens 21 times a year, not exactly the same analogy?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Johnson wrote:Its an excellent guide, of course it can be -/+ 0.150 or so but for a lot fo comparisons that doesn't make too much of a difference.

It is especially true when so many metrics "prove" something and there aren't any counter metrics against it.

Hamilton > Massa can be proven using so many metrics.
There is no metric you can use to suggest Hamilton = Massa or Massa > Hamilton

You can use cross references between Alonso-Massa and Bottas-Massa as well as Fisichella-Alonso and Massa-Alonso. As well as Massa-Schumacher and Massa-Raikkonen to show that Massa never was a top driver. You can even extend metrics to Heidfeld-Raikkonen and Massa-Raikkonen.

In the dry races in 2008, Massa beat Hamilton 8-3 when both finished and one of those Hamilton wins includes Singapore that Massa would have won without Piquets crashgate. Without bad luck the figure would have been something like 10-4 in Massa's favour. Luckily for Hamilton, he is the best wet weather driver of his generation and Massa is one of the worst drivers in a top seat in the wet in living memory. But, people to this day still claim the Mclaren to be the better car or the cars equal.
I think that is it's out by as much as 0.15s then it's not reliable at all, that's a lot, I would like to think it's much closer than that.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Junglist »

pokerman wrote:
Junglist wrote: boxer can get caught by a lucky punch or can carry an injury into a fight, plus a fight is a one off event whereas qualifying happens 21 times a year, not exactly the same analogy?
I'm more speaking about the theory that just because someone beat a mutual opponent, doesn't mean it's a given they'll beat the other driver in the comparison.

Granted there are 20 data points over a year to take from but races don't happen in a vacuum they're still effected by other variables which makes it a hard comparison to make. If every single race had the same, for lack of a better word, settings, then the comparisons might mean something but across teams it just doesn't work for me.

Not saying people shouldn't try and do it, I just don't think it's very reliable. There's just way too much data that we don't have access to to make a proper claim that A is faster than B and C

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