US election - prediction
Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:52 pm
Who do you think will win the upcoming US presidential election?
Do you think deciding a winner based solely on a popular vote would be fair? Might make the people in NY, LA & Chicago smile but it'd be a pretty crappy way to run an election for anyone outside of those cities.Harpo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 amThe US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
In a straight popular vote at least every voters vote is worth the same. With the electoral college, smaller states are generally overrepresented compared to the size of their population.Jezza13 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:56 amDo you think deciding a winner based solely on a popular vote would be fair? Might make the people in NY, LA & Chicago smile but it'd be a pretty crappy way to run an election for anyone outside of those cities.Harpo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 amThe US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
Who do I think will win? No idea. Who do I want to win? Unfortunately, as someone who considers themselves centre left on the political spectrum, it pains me to say this but I have to say Trump.
I have no great love for Trump. I think the guys an "A" grade bafoon, I can't stand him personally but I do like some of his policies & also the Democrat's have moved far too far to the left whilst spending the last 4 yrs, with the help of mass & social media, doing everything in their power, including using amoral tactics, blatant lies &, in regards to Russia gate, possibly treason, to undermine & bring down the Trump administration, Now, through Hunter Biden's emails, we're finding out just how dirty & corrupt his father is but all seem to be hearing on that from the media is crickets.
My reading of it was that Biden's win was the centrists regaining control of the party, especially with Harris as his running mate and Sanders fellow left wing candidate Elizabeth Warren staying in the primary race suspiciously long after it became basically impossible for her to win. The fact that a vocal group of republicans ("Lincoln voters" as they have been dubbed) feel comfortable endorsing Biden suggests he isn't running a particularly left wing campaign.Jezza13 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:56 amWho do I think will win? No idea. Who do I want to win? Unfortunately, as someone who considers themselves centre left on the political spectrum, it pains me to say this but I have to say Trump.Harpo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 amThe US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
I have no great love for Trump. I think the guys an "A" grade bafoon, I can't stand him personally but I do like some of his policies & also the Democrat's have moved far too far to the left whilst spending the last 4 yrs, with the help of mass & social media, doing everything in their power, including using amoral tactics, blatant lies &, in regards to Russia gate, possibly treason, to undermine & bring down the Trump administration, Now, through Hunter Biden's emails, we're finding out just how dirty & corrupt his father is but all seem to be hearing on that from the media is crickets.
We can add to this that most states use the "winner takes all" system to allocate the electorate votes, which adds to the unfairness of the system, only 2 states share them according to the result of the poll.JN23 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:19 pmIn a straight popular vote at least every voters vote is worth the same. With the electoral college, smaller states are generally overrepresented compared to the size of their population.Jezza13 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:56 amDo you think deciding a winner based solely on a popular vote would be fair? Might make the people in NY, LA & Chicago smile but it'd be a pretty crappy way to run an election for anyone outside of those cities.Harpo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 amThe US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
Who do I think will win? No idea. Who do I want to win? Unfortunately, as someone who considers themselves centre left on the political spectrum, it pains me to say this but I have to say Trump.
I have no great love for Trump. I think the guys an "A" grade bafoon, I can't stand him personally but I do like some of his policies & also the Democrat's have moved far too far to the left whilst spending the last 4 yrs, with the help of mass & social media, doing everything in their power, including using amoral tactics, blatant lies &, in regards to Russia gate, possibly treason, to undermine & bring down the Trump administration, Now, through Hunter Biden's emails, we're finding out just how dirty & corrupt his father is but all seem to be hearing on that from the media is crickets.
For example:
Wyoming - population of just short of 600,000 in 2016 got three electoral votes.
California - population of just over 39,000,000 in 2016 got 55 electoral votes.
So Wyoming is getting an electoral vote for every 200,000 people whilst in California, gets one for every 700,000 people roughly. Texas and Florida are the other two states that are underrepresented in the electoral college.
20 states + DC have a combined population 37.8m and have 96 electoral votes between them, California has a similar population and gets 55.
The electoral college certainly makes it more interesting but I don't really find it fair.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng- ... s-election
The issue of large cities having a greater political influence in a popular vote is a very real one, but the reality is that either way someone loses out, and I dont see how a system where 1 persons vote in one state is equal to multiple votes of people in another state is any better. I'd argue it's worse as it not only doesnt solve the issue of people in one area having more influence but it's also simply undemocratic.Jezza13 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:56 amDo you think deciding a winner based solely on a popular vote would be fair? Might make the people in NY, LA & Chicago smile but it'd be a pretty crappy way to run an election for anyone outside of those cities.Harpo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 amThe US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
Who do I think will win? No idea. Who do I want to win? Unfortunately, as someone who considers themselves centre left on the political spectrum, it pains me to say this but I have to say Trump.
I have no great love for Trump. I think the guys an "A" grade bafoon, I can't stand him personally but I do like some of his policies & also the Democrat's have moved far too far to the left whilst spending the last 4 yrs, with the help of mass & social media, doing everything in their power, including using amoral tactics, blatant lies &, in regards to Russia gate, possibly treason, to undermine & bring down the Trump administration, Now, through Hunter Biden's emails, we're finding out just how dirty & corrupt his father is but all seem to be hearing on that from the media is crickets.
I think major divisions in both parties are almost inevitable at some point soon. It's just that the winning party might be able to delay it for four years. The Democrats have an uneasy relationship with it's left and has even run candidates against "Squad" members as happened to Ilhan Omar in her House of representatives primary. Another defeat for a "compromise" Presidential candidate would make that wing of the Democrats feel that their time has come. Even if Biden wins, those divisions may fracture further.Black_Flag_11 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:47 pmThe issue of large cities having a greater political influence in a popular vote is a very real one, but the reality is that either way someone loses out, and I dont see how a system where 1 persons vote in one state is equal to multiple votes of people in another state is any better. I'd argue it's worse as it not only doesnt solve the issue of people in one area having more influence but it's also simply undemocratic.Jezza13 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:56 amDo you think deciding a winner based solely on a popular vote would be fair? Might make the people in NY, LA & Chicago smile but it'd be a pretty crappy way to run an election for anyone outside of those cities.Harpo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 amThe US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
Who do I think will win? No idea. Who do I want to win? Unfortunately, as someone who considers themselves centre left on the political spectrum, it pains me to say this but I have to say Trump.
I have no great love for Trump. I think the guys an "A" grade bafoon, I can't stand him personally but I do like some of his policies & also the Democrat's have moved far too far to the left whilst spending the last 4 yrs, with the help of mass & social media, doing everything in their power, including using amoral tactics, blatant lies &, in regards to Russia gate, possibly treason, to undermine & bring down the Trump administration, Now, through Hunter Biden's emails, we're finding out just how dirty & corrupt his father is but all seem to be hearing on that from the media is crickets.
On the subject of the Democrats being too left wing I have to disagree. If I lived in the US my biggest complaint would be the lack of a real left wing option. The two party system puts the Democrats in a position where they only need to go slightly to the left of the Republicans, and it shows. Biden could walk into the UK conservative party for example and not look even slightly out of place IMO. I think the US political system is generally leaned to the right, and come to think of it, the electoral college giving more voting power to the typically red states may be at the root of it.
It seems to me that the choice ultimaetly boils down to conservatism vs conservatism-light, and for as long as the Democrats can get away with offering that and still rely on the left wing vote, simply by virtue of not being the other party, I think that's the way it will stay. Ironically I think I could make the case that in the long run for leftists a Trump win could be most beneficial.
Option or Prime wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:41 amI find it somewhat depressing that a population of 330 million seem to put money in front of peoples lives be it in the guise of coronavirus or race or health care as a basic but when it gets down to stopping the counting of votes thats just dictatorship.
The fact is though half the voters support those principles. It should never be this close the US has dropped massively in credibility in my personal opinion. Its become a champion of cheating and telling lies.
It will need years to regain any credibility.
Although he didn't say anything about stopping the counting, he actually said he wants the Supreme Court to stop the voting, whatever that means, that speech would have to go down as one of the dumbest political speeches of all time.
Yes, but it is very, very this was part of Trump's plan. He knew he had probably lost this election a long time ago. The moment that he started gaslighting about mail in ballots, equating them as fraud in the eyes of his entrenched supporters, was the moment he shifted to wilfully attempt to subvert the election.Schumacher forever#1 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:52 pmCrazy how close this is. I was going to be last night thinking I'd wake up to a red America. Biden pulling back in a lot of key states though and I expect him to win only just. PA, MI, GA all still could go blue yet.
I don't watch TV in Japan - but it is legit - it's one of their major news channels too. TV in Japan is weird, but not the sort of weird people associate with Japanese TV in the West. (off topic, but this video shows a British perspective of Japanese TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtnVU4BU39E )Siao7 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:26 pmHey Alien, you are in Japan, right?
Is the following for real? Amazing!
https://twitter.com/kazamatsuri/status/ ... 6498631680
Is that you in the video??Alienturnedhuman wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:46 pmI don't watch TV in Japan - but it is legit - it's one of their major news channels too. TV in Japan is weird, but not the sort of weird people associate with Japanese TV in the West. (off topic, but this video shows a British perspective of Japanese TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtnVU4BU39E )Siao7 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:26 pmHey Alien, you are in Japan, right?
Is the following for real? Amazing!
https://twitter.com/kazamatsuri/status/ ... 6498631680
Ah no, it’s one of the most popular YouTube channels run by a westerner living in japan. To bring it back on topic, one of the things my wife told me is that most Japanese people don’t realise how unhinged Trump is because when they translate his tweets into Japanese they don’t translate his style, only the content. They translate them so they sound like the same tone as a professional politician, and as Japanese don’t have capital letters they lose that aspect too. The same with his speeches, the rambling nature and style of a drunken seven year old is lost because they just translate the content.Siao7 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:53 pmIs that you in the video??Alienturnedhuman wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:46 pmI don't watch TV in Japan - but it is legit - it's one of their major news channels too. TV in Japan is weird, but not the sort of weird people associate with Japanese TV in the West. (off topic, but this video shows a British perspective of Japanese TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtnVU4BU39E )Siao7 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:26 pmHey Alien, you are in Japan, right?
Is the following for real? Amazing!
https://twitter.com/kazamatsuri/status/ ... 6498631680
It must be awesome living there, I'd sure want to visit the place.
Sorry for the off topic everyone
The definition of "lost in translation" I guess!Alienturnedhuman wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:30 pmAh no, it’s one of the most popular YouTube channels run by a westerner living in japan. To bring it back on topic, one of the things my wife told me is that most Japanese people don’t realise how unhinged Trump is because when they translate his tweets into Japanese they don’t translate his style, only the content. They translate them so they sound like the same tone as a professional politician, and as Japanese don’t have capital letters they lose that aspect too. The same with his speeches, the rambling nature and style of a drunken seven year old is lost because they just translate the content.Siao7 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:53 pmIs that you in the video??Alienturnedhuman wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:46 pmI don't watch TV in Japan - but it is legit - it's one of their major news channels too. TV in Japan is weird, but not the sort of weird people associate with Japanese TV in the West. (off topic, but this video shows a British perspective of Japanese TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtnVU4BU39E )Siao7 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:26 pmHey Alien, you are in Japan, right?
Is the following for real? Amazing!
https://twitter.com/kazamatsuri/status/ ... 6498631680
It must be awesome living there, I'd sure want to visit the place.
Sorry for the off topic everyone
Mmmm, its actually the opposite! Trump has no plans to concede.BMWSauber84 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:40 pmOh and Fox News is reporting that Trump will concede today.
Yes, social media gave me a bum steer. I can't see Trump hanging on beyond January though. America has very strict laws on squatters.Option or Prime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:46 pmMmmm, its actually the opposite! Trump has no plans to concede.BMWSauber84 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:40 pmOh and Fox News is reporting that Trump will concede today.
This takes me back to my politics A-level. 'Is the US constitution effective in today's world or is it outdated?' (or something to that effect), 30 marks.Option or Prime wrote: ↑Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:00 pmIts actually quite interesting about hm staying on. Trump conceding is a huge deal if he doesn't there are multiple possibilities. This is worth a watch but basically the constitution is not geared up to deal with stubborn belligerent Donald Trumps!