US election - prediction

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Who will win the presidential election?

Poll ended at Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:52 pm

Joe Biden
8
89%
Donald Trump
1
11%
 
Total votes: 9

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Black_Flag_11
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US election - prediction

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

Who do you think will win the upcoming US presidential election?

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Black_Flag_11
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

I'm unsure what to think to be honest. Polls suggest a Biden win, but they said a similar thing in 2016.

Biden seems less disliked to me than Hillary was generally, and Trump's campaign last time was very much centred around the idea of voting for him to change things (MAGA), kind of hard to generate that buzz again when you are the person who has been in charge for the last 4 years. On the other hand Biden could be seen as something of an 'establishment' candidate, like Hillary was.

I'm leaning towards Biden, but I'm much more hesitant than I was in 2016.

Option or Prime
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Option or Prime »

Problem I have voting for this is I'm not sure if I'm voting for who I want to win or who will win.
Either way it is probably Biden in a fair election. The concern I have is the pre and postal voting and whether they will be correctly counted or face some sort of legal challenge.
The fact that 20 million have voted at this stage as opposed to 6 million in 2016 is significant, Seems a lot of suburban housewives have voted as well as a much higher proportion of the young. Turnout is key for a Democrat win. It will be down to how many Republicans vote on the day!

JN23
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by JN23 »

The poll’s suggest Biden should win fairly comfortably but I get the Impression that people feel stung by the polls from 2016 which suggested Hillary should win, so they’re not trusting the polls.

Schumacher forever#1
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Schumacher forever#1 »

With such a high turnout, I think Biden will sweep it.

The fact that people don't trust the polls works in Biden's favour I think. There'll be few people who will leave it to chance, not bothering to vote, because they'll believe their vote will probably count for something.
"Always believe you will become the best, but never believe you have done so"

Option or Prime
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Option or Prime »

Another factor in Biden's favour is the number of voters who are casting their vote early nearly 30 million with 2 weeks to go. In 2016 about 125 million people voted. Democrats tend to vote early a big turnout on the day is expected to favour Republicans.

BMWSauber84
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by BMWSauber84 »

The polls were seemingly far more accurate for the US midterms in 2018 so I suspect pollsters have somewhat ironed out some of the kinks.

That said, the historically very accurate "Primary model" (started in 1996, but retrospectively applied would have only got the 1960 and 2000 elections wrong) set in March gave Trump something like an 87% chance of victory which is what Trump supporters are largely clinging on to. The caveat I would make there is that Covid has happened to America in the interim as well as racial unrest.

I think predictions of a Biden landslide are wishful thinking. One electoral college projection I saw had Biden winning Texas which is ridiculous. If Biden wins Texas I'll start a thread where I'll make a case for Lance Stroll being the best Formula one driver on the current grid. It ain't happening.

I still think a narrow-borderline moderate Biden win is most likely overall.

Harpo
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Harpo »

The US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
As my brother said : "I've got the brain of a four year old. I'll bet he was glad to be rid of it".

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Jezza13 »

Harpo wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 am
The US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
Do you think deciding a winner based solely on a popular vote would be fair? Might make the people in NY, LA & Chicago smile but it'd be a pretty crappy way to run an election for anyone outside of those cities.

Who do I think will win? No idea. Who do I want to win? Unfortunately, as someone who considers themselves centre left on the political spectrum, it pains me to say this but I have to say Trump.

I have no great love for Trump. I think the guys an "A" grade bafoon, I can't stand him personally but I do like some of his policies & also the Democrat's have moved far too far to the left whilst spending the last 4 yrs, with the help of mass & social media, doing everything in their power, including using amoral tactics, blatant lies &, in regards to Russia gate, possibly treason, to undermine & bring down the Trump administration, Now, through Hunter Biden's emails, we're finding out just how dirty & corrupt his father is but all seem to be hearing on that from the media is crickets.
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by JN23 »

Jezza13 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:56 am
Harpo wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 am
The US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
Do you think deciding a winner based solely on a popular vote would be fair? Might make the people in NY, LA & Chicago smile but it'd be a pretty crappy way to run an election for anyone outside of those cities.

Who do I think will win? No idea. Who do I want to win? Unfortunately, as someone who considers themselves centre left on the political spectrum, it pains me to say this but I have to say Trump.

I have no great love for Trump. I think the guys an "A" grade bafoon, I can't stand him personally but I do like some of his policies & also the Democrat's have moved far too far to the left whilst spending the last 4 yrs, with the help of mass & social media, doing everything in their power, including using amoral tactics, blatant lies &, in regards to Russia gate, possibly treason, to undermine & bring down the Trump administration, Now, through Hunter Biden's emails, we're finding out just how dirty & corrupt his father is but all seem to be hearing on that from the media is crickets.
In a straight popular vote at least every voters vote is worth the same. With the electoral college, smaller states are generally overrepresented compared to the size of their population.

For example:
Wyoming - population of just short of 600,000 in 2016 got three electoral votes.
California - population of just over 39,000,000 in 2016 got 55 electoral votes.

So Wyoming is getting an electoral vote for every 200,000 people whilst in California, gets one for every 700,000 people roughly. Texas and Florida are the other two states that are underrepresented in the electoral college.

20 states + DC have a combined population 37.8m and have 96 electoral votes between them, California has a similar population and gets 55.

The electoral college certainly makes it more interesting but I don't really find it fair.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng- ... s-election

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by BMWSauber84 »

Jezza13 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:56 am
Harpo wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 am
The US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
Who do I think will win? No idea. Who do I want to win? Unfortunately, as someone who considers themselves centre left on the political spectrum, it pains me to say this but I have to say Trump.

I have no great love for Trump. I think the guys an "A" grade bafoon, I can't stand him personally but I do like some of his policies & also the Democrat's have moved far too far to the left whilst spending the last 4 yrs, with the help of mass & social media, doing everything in their power, including using amoral tactics, blatant lies &, in regards to Russia gate, possibly treason, to undermine & bring down the Trump administration, Now, through Hunter Biden's emails, we're finding out just how dirty & corrupt his father is but all seem to be hearing on that from the media is crickets.
My reading of it was that Biden's win was the centrists regaining control of the party, especially with Harris as his running mate and Sanders fellow left wing candidate Elizabeth Warren staying in the primary race suspiciously long after it became basically impossible for her to win. The fact that a vocal group of republicans ("Lincoln voters" as they have been dubbed) feel comfortable endorsing Biden suggests he isn't running a particularly left wing campaign.

As for dirty and corrupt, I would suggest that the fact so many of Trump's one time inner circle are either under investigation or have already been stung suggests he hasn't so much drained the swamp as bathed in it. It's always the case with these demagogues that they can campaign amazingly effectively, but of you give them a real crisis they get it tragically and catastrophically wrong. On his watch the White house has had more Covid cases than some entire nations in recent months.

I rate Trump as a superior leader to Boris Johnson though and accept that Joe Biden isn't an ideal candidate, he's a pithy compromise really. This should be an open goal of an election for the Democrats really, but I wouldn't put it past them to mess it up.

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Option or Prime »

Just to put the voting numbers into some sort of perspective, Biden has to win not by a little but by a lot. The reason being that there is a massive amount of voting manipulation happening at the moment specifically with respect to gerrymandering.

Basically this is manipulation of voting borders so that the votes cast give maximum effect to the chosen party. Its explained in the diagram below and of course is not limited to the US.

Image

All parties do it but the party in power has the opportunity to draw the boundaries to their best advantage. Thats why this district in Illinois is shaped as it is. This is a democrat example but I believe that the Republicans have this down to a fine art.

Image

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Harpo »

JN23 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:19 pm
Jezza13 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:56 am
Harpo wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 am
The US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
Do you think deciding a winner based solely on a popular vote would be fair? Might make the people in NY, LA & Chicago smile but it'd be a pretty crappy way to run an election for anyone outside of those cities.

Who do I think will win? No idea. Who do I want to win? Unfortunately, as someone who considers themselves centre left on the political spectrum, it pains me to say this but I have to say Trump.

I have no great love for Trump. I think the guys an "A" grade bafoon, I can't stand him personally but I do like some of his policies & also the Democrat's have moved far too far to the left whilst spending the last 4 yrs, with the help of mass & social media, doing everything in their power, including using amoral tactics, blatant lies &, in regards to Russia gate, possibly treason, to undermine & bring down the Trump administration, Now, through Hunter Biden's emails, we're finding out just how dirty & corrupt his father is but all seem to be hearing on that from the media is crickets.
In a straight popular vote at least every voters vote is worth the same. With the electoral college, smaller states are generally overrepresented compared to the size of their population.

For example:
Wyoming - population of just short of 600,000 in 2016 got three electoral votes.
California - population of just over 39,000,000 in 2016 got 55 electoral votes.

So Wyoming is getting an electoral vote for every 200,000 people whilst in California, gets one for every 700,000 people roughly. Texas and Florida are the other two states that are underrepresented in the electoral college.

20 states + DC have a combined population 37.8m and have 96 electoral votes between them, California has a similar population and gets 55.

The electoral college certainly makes it more interesting but I don't really find it fair.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng- ... s-election
We can add to this that most states use the "winner takes all" system to allocate the electorate votes, which adds to the unfairness of the system, only 2 states share them according to the result of the poll.
As my brother said : "I've got the brain of a four year old. I'll bet he was glad to be rid of it".

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

Jezza13 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:56 am
Harpo wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 am
The US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
Do you think deciding a winner based solely on a popular vote would be fair? Might make the people in NY, LA & Chicago smile but it'd be a pretty crappy way to run an election for anyone outside of those cities.

Who do I think will win? No idea. Who do I want to win? Unfortunately, as someone who considers themselves centre left on the political spectrum, it pains me to say this but I have to say Trump.

I have no great love for Trump. I think the guys an "A" grade bafoon, I can't stand him personally but I do like some of his policies & also the Democrat's have moved far too far to the left whilst spending the last 4 yrs, with the help of mass & social media, doing everything in their power, including using amoral tactics, blatant lies &, in regards to Russia gate, possibly treason, to undermine & bring down the Trump administration, Now, through Hunter Biden's emails, we're finding out just how dirty & corrupt his father is but all seem to be hearing on that from the media is crickets.
The issue of large cities having a greater political influence in a popular vote is a very real one, but the reality is that either way someone loses out, and I dont see how a system where 1 persons vote in one state is equal to multiple votes of people in another state is any better. I'd argue it's worse as it not only doesnt solve the issue of people in one area having more influence but it's also simply undemocratic.

On the subject of the Democrats being too left wing I have to disagree. If I lived in the US my biggest complaint would be the lack of a real left wing option. The two party system puts the Democrats in a position where they only need to go slightly to the left of the Republicans, and it shows. Biden could walk into the UK conservative party for example and not look even slightly out of place IMO. I think the US political system is generally leaned to the right, and come to think of it, the electoral college giving more voting power to the typically red states may be at the root of it.

It seems to me that the choice ultimaetly boils down to conservatism vs conservatism-light, and for as long as the Democrats can get away with offering that and still rely on the left wing vote, simply by virtue of not being the other party, I think that's the way it will stay. Ironically I think I could make the case that in the long run for leftists a Trump win could be most beneficial.

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Option or Prime »

Strongly agree with that, especially the middle para. The US thinks Biden's socialism is close to communism. Biden's politics are centre ground in the UK.

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by BMWSauber84 »

Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:47 pm
Jezza13 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:56 am
Harpo wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:13 am
The US ballot system is too unfair to predict anything. Trump could lose the popular vote by a bigger margin than 4 years ago and still be elected...
Biden chance is that lot of people who didn't care to decide between two opposite faces of the same establishment in 2016, had four years to realize that one is far less harmful than the other.
Do you think deciding a winner based solely on a popular vote would be fair? Might make the people in NY, LA & Chicago smile but it'd be a pretty crappy way to run an election for anyone outside of those cities.

Who do I think will win? No idea. Who do I want to win? Unfortunately, as someone who considers themselves centre left on the political spectrum, it pains me to say this but I have to say Trump.

I have no great love for Trump. I think the guys an "A" grade bafoon, I can't stand him personally but I do like some of his policies & also the Democrat's have moved far too far to the left whilst spending the last 4 yrs, with the help of mass & social media, doing everything in their power, including using amoral tactics, blatant lies &, in regards to Russia gate, possibly treason, to undermine & bring down the Trump administration, Now, through Hunter Biden's emails, we're finding out just how dirty & corrupt his father is but all seem to be hearing on that from the media is crickets.
The issue of large cities having a greater political influence in a popular vote is a very real one, but the reality is that either way someone loses out, and I dont see how a system where 1 persons vote in one state is equal to multiple votes of people in another state is any better. I'd argue it's worse as it not only doesnt solve the issue of people in one area having more influence but it's also simply undemocratic.

On the subject of the Democrats being too left wing I have to disagree. If I lived in the US my biggest complaint would be the lack of a real left wing option. The two party system puts the Democrats in a position where they only need to go slightly to the left of the Republicans, and it shows. Biden could walk into the UK conservative party for example and not look even slightly out of place IMO. I think the US political system is generally leaned to the right, and come to think of it, the electoral college giving more voting power to the typically red states may be at the root of it.

It seems to me that the choice ultimaetly boils down to conservatism vs conservatism-light, and for as long as the Democrats can get away with offering that and still rely on the left wing vote, simply by virtue of not being the other party, I think that's the way it will stay. Ironically I think I could make the case that in the long run for leftists a Trump win could be most beneficial.
I think major divisions in both parties are almost inevitable at some point soon. It's just that the winning party might be able to delay it for four years. The Democrats have an uneasy relationship with it's left and has even run candidates against "Squad" members as happened to Ilhan Omar in her House of representatives primary. Another defeat for a "compromise" Presidential candidate would make that wing of the Democrats feel that their time has come. Even if Biden wins, those divisions may fracture further.

For the Republicans, moderates and genuine conservatives have had an uneasy relationship with Trump. They fell into line when he got elected in 2016 but a defeat for him this time would no doubt have them trying to get the Republican party back to what it was pre-Trump. That may prove easier said than done as Trump has fundamentally changed that party and Trump or a Trump endorsed candidate would stand a very good chance of winning the primary for the 2024 race. Trump winning again would maybe force some conservatives to leave.

JN23
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by JN23 »

Well the polls were wrong, again, and more wrong than last time I believe.

It’s still too close to call though and could go either way.

Also, Trump wants the Supreme Court to stop the counting of ballots :uhoh:

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Option or Prime »

I find it somewhat depressing that a population of 330 million seem to put money in front of peoples lives be it in the guise of coronavirus or race or health care as a basic but when it gets down to stopping the counting of votes thats just dictatorship.

The fact is though half the voters support those principles. It should never be this close the US has dropped massively in credibility in my personal opinion. Its become a champion of cheating and telling lies.

It will need years to regain any credibility.

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by JN23 »

Option or Prime wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:41 am
I find it somewhat depressing that a population of 330 million seem to put money in front of peoples lives be it in the guise of coronavirus or race or health care as a basic but when it gets down to stopping the counting of votes thats just dictatorship.

The fact is though half the voters support those principles. It should never be this close the US has dropped massively in credibility in my personal opinion. Its become a champion of cheating and telling lies.

It will need years to regain any credibility.
:thumbup:

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Jezza13 »

JN23 wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:13 am
Well the polls were wrong, again, and more wrong than last time I believe.

It’s still too close to call though and could go either way.

Also, Trump wants the Supreme Court to stop the counting of ballots :uhoh:
Although he didn't say anything about stopping the counting, he actually said he wants the Supreme Court to stop the voting, whatever that means, that speech would have to go down as one of the dumbest political speeches of all time.

What the hell was he thinking? After months of listening to the Democrat's say he he'll refuse to leave the office if he loses the election, he goes & says that? When he's still in with a big shout of winning ?

All he's done now is give the Democrat's exactly what they wanted & virtually guarantee more civil unrest.

Yeah definitely too close to call although it looks like the late votes might favour Biden but either way i'd say the election will be decided in the courts.
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

Irrespective of who wins this is the worst case scenario in terms of how it could play out. A close result with Trump claiming victory prematurely.

From what I've seen (and this may change on a state by state basis) it seems that in person votes are counted first and early/mail votes last, broadly speaking, and with those votes expected to favour Biden this could get even worse.

Someone close to Trump might want to consider 'accidentally' spilling water on his phone or something if his leads start to drop.

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by tootsie323 »

The only prediction I had is that, with the result likely to be close (despite those exit polls) and both parties suggesting legal action should they lose in a close contest, this would be an unholy mess.
In that respect only, I'm not disappointed so far...
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Schumacher forever#1 »

Crazy how close this is. I was going to be last night thinking I'd wake up to a red America. Biden pulling back in a lot of key states though and I expect him to win only just. PA, MI, GA all still could go blue yet.
"Always believe you will become the best, but never believe you have done so"

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by BMWSauber84 »

I think it's now finally fair to say that Joe Biden is the President-elect. He's roughly as likely to lose the vote as Lewis Hamilton is to lose the 2020 Formula One world championship. Crucially for the Republicans though, they are going to hold the Senate.

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:52 pm
Crazy how close this is. I was going to be last night thinking I'd wake up to a red America. Biden pulling back in a lot of key states though and I expect him to win only just. PA, MI, GA all still could go blue yet.
Yes, but it is very, very this was part of Trump's plan. He knew he had probably lost this election a long time ago. The moment that he started gaslighting about mail in ballots, equating them as fraud in the eyes of his entrenched supporters, was the moment he shifted to wilfully attempt to subvert the election.

The plan was simple:

Step 1
Spin a narrative about in person ballot = 'real' vote, mail in ballots = 'fake' vote, or rather, push the idea that many mail in ballots can be created from no where, from people voting multiple times, to a systematic behind the scene operation by Democrats to create loads of extra fake Biden votes. It doesn't matter what people think is happening, they just have to think that mail in ballots contain many extra fake Biden votes.

Step 2
Identify the battleground states and slow down the processing of mail in votes as much as possible. This was achieved by sabotaging the US postal service infrastructure so ballots would be held up, arrive late etc... and also block the early counting of mail in ballots in those states. It doesn't matter in the non-swing states, as step 4 will go into.


Step 3
Make his own supporters less worried about the dangers of COVID, and make it more difficult for people vote in person in Democratic areas. This has the effect of skewing in person votes to have a Trump bias, and postal votes to have a Biden bias.

Step 4
Now, sit back and watch it unfold. The in person votes get counted, which are more favourable to Trump. The real time nature of the 24 hour news machine means that the key battleground states all report that Trump is pulling ahead - but this is by design, those mail in ballots haven't been counted yet. When all the in person votes are done, with 70% or so of the vote counted, Trump appears to have a 10%-20% lead in the polls.

This gives the impression that with only 30% of the votes left to count there is no way that Trump can lose. I was guilty of falling into this trap with Pennsylvania - when I saw Trump was 700,000 ahead with just over a million votes left to count, it meant Biden had to win 85% of the remaining votes to win. But all the vote left to count were from the major cities, and with the rate it is swinging back to Biden it looks like he does have more than 85% of those remaining votes and if the momentum holds up he will win the state.

Even Georgia and North Carolina could swing to Biden, but I think Georgia will fall just short, but that is one of the state that had in person voting in Democratic areas most badly sabotaged, so there is a slim chance it could swing to Biden, but we are talking Florida 2000 knife edges here.


These steps are all done so if Biden does swing back from these states that Trump looked to be running away with, many will buy his "Democrats creating fake votes" narrative. On top of this, he will attempt to get many postal ballots struck down by the supreme court, even though some states have said so long as a postal vote was posted BY election date it will be counted it is arrives up to 3 days after the election. Expect a lot of funny business in the courts. Trump's strategy in life is that once he has lost, he tries to sue.


What all this highlights is how fragile democracy is in the United States. The constitution needs to be amended to enshrine in law your right to vote (which is not actually protected in the constitution, I was amazed to learn) and with that, the access to voting. The 8 hour long voting lines are not by accident, they are by design, a design that the government in power should not be able to control.


Siao7
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Siao7 »

Hey Alien, you are in Japan, right?

Is the following for real? Amazing!

https://twitter.com/kazamatsuri/status/ ... 6498631680

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Alienturnedhuman
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

Siao7 wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:26 pm
Hey Alien, you are in Japan, right?

Is the following for real? Amazing!

https://twitter.com/kazamatsuri/status/ ... 6498631680
I don't watch TV in Japan - but it is legit - it's one of their major news channels too. TV in Japan is weird, but not the sort of weird people associate with Japanese TV in the West. (off topic, but this video shows a British perspective of Japanese TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtnVU4BU39E )

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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Siao7 »

Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:46 pm
Siao7 wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:26 pm
Hey Alien, you are in Japan, right?

Is the following for real? Amazing!

https://twitter.com/kazamatsuri/status/ ... 6498631680
I don't watch TV in Japan - but it is legit - it's one of their major news channels too. TV in Japan is weird, but not the sort of weird people associate with Japanese TV in the West. (off topic, but this video shows a British perspective of Japanese TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtnVU4BU39E )
Is that you in the video??

:D

It must be awesome living there, I'd sure want to visit the place.

Sorry for the off topic everyone

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Alienturnedhuman
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

Siao7 wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:53 pm
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:46 pm
Siao7 wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:26 pm
Hey Alien, you are in Japan, right?

Is the following for real? Amazing!

https://twitter.com/kazamatsuri/status/ ... 6498631680
I don't watch TV in Japan - but it is legit - it's one of their major news channels too. TV in Japan is weird, but not the sort of weird people associate with Japanese TV in the West. (off topic, but this video shows a British perspective of Japanese TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtnVU4BU39E )
Is that you in the video??

:D

It must be awesome living there, I'd sure want to visit the place.

Sorry for the off topic everyone
Ah no, it’s one of the most popular YouTube channels run by a westerner living in japan. To bring it back on topic, one of the things my wife told me is that most Japanese people don’t realise how unhinged Trump is because when they translate his tweets into Japanese they don’t translate his style, only the content. They translate them so they sound like the same tone as a professional politician, and as Japanese don’t have capital letters they lose that aspect too. The same with his speeches, the rambling nature and style of a drunken seven year old is lost because they just translate the content.

Siao7
Posts: 9053
Joined: Tue May 05, 2009 11:31 am

Re: US election - prediction

Post by Siao7 »

Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:30 pm
Siao7 wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:53 pm
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:46 pm
Siao7 wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:26 pm
Hey Alien, you are in Japan, right?

Is the following for real? Amazing!

https://twitter.com/kazamatsuri/status/ ... 6498631680
I don't watch TV in Japan - but it is legit - it's one of their major news channels too. TV in Japan is weird, but not the sort of weird people associate with Japanese TV in the West. (off topic, but this video shows a British perspective of Japanese TV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtnVU4BU39E )
Is that you in the video??

:D

It must be awesome living there, I'd sure want to visit the place.

Sorry for the off topic everyone
Ah no, it’s one of the most popular YouTube channels run by a westerner living in japan. To bring it back on topic, one of the things my wife told me is that most Japanese people don’t realise how unhinged Trump is because when they translate his tweets into Japanese they don’t translate his style, only the content. They translate them so they sound like the same tone as a professional politician, and as Japanese don’t have capital letters they lose that aspect too. The same with his speeches, the rambling nature and style of a drunken seven year old is lost because they just translate the content.
The definition of "lost in translation" I guess!

I did not know that they don't have capitals in Japanese, I always thought that they would indicate it somehow, like putting a dot next to the character or something. Rambling is the main thing of the whole Trump experience, they do not know what they are missing here!

Herb
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Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:42 pm

Re: US election - prediction

Post by Herb »

Sounds like translating a Trump speech into Japanese will be the easiest job ever, there is so little actual content - most of it is just waffle.

Siao7
Posts: 9053
Joined: Tue May 05, 2009 11:31 am

Re: US election - prediction

Post by Siao7 »

Herb wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:27 am
Sounds like translating a Trump speech into Japanese will be the easiest job ever, there is so little actual content - most of it is just waffle.
I deny that, it's fake, obviously tampered with. On top of that, these are lies and we have been cheated!

Option or Prime
Posts: 2050
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Location: UK

Re: US election - prediction

Post by Option or Prime »

I suppose everyone realises that whilst Japan seems to be the burning issue for some reason America is voting out the greedy selfish bully that threatens us all whether through being the largest repository of coronavirus or by contributing to global warming.

Georgia is now likely to go Democrat, probably as a result of racial unrest in its cities.

Just thought I'd mention it seeing as it the thread topic!

User avatar
Black_Flag_11
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Re: US election - prediction

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

Looks like Biden will win Pennsylvania too now, quite important in terms of making things easier going forward, always a chance of a recount in a close state going the other way, but very unlikely to happen in 3 or 4 states.

I imagine it will also mean that Trump will graciously accept defeat...

BMWSauber84
Posts: 843
Joined: Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:19 pm

Re: US election - prediction

Post by BMWSauber84 »

That's all folks. There's a new President elect.

BMWSauber84
Posts: 843
Joined: Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:19 pm

Re: US election - prediction

Post by BMWSauber84 »

Oh and Fox News is reporting that Trump will concede today.

Option or Prime
Posts: 2050
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:50 am
Location: UK

Re: US election - prediction

Post by Option or Prime »

BMWSauber84 wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:40 pm
Oh and Fox News is reporting that Trump will concede today.
Mmmm, its actually the opposite! Trump has no plans to concede.

BMWSauber84
Posts: 843
Joined: Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:19 pm

Re: US election - prediction

Post by BMWSauber84 »

Option or Prime wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:46 pm
BMWSauber84 wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:40 pm
Oh and Fox News is reporting that Trump will concede today.
Mmmm, its actually the opposite! Trump has no plans to concede.
Yes, social media gave me a bum steer. I can't see Trump hanging on beyond January though. America has very strict laws on squatters.

Option or Prime
Posts: 2050
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2014 9:50 am
Location: UK

Re: US election - prediction

Post by Option or Prime »

Its actually quite interesting about hm staying on. Trump conceding is a huge deal if he doesn't there are multiple possibilities. This is worth a watch but basically the constitution is not geared up to deal with stubborn belligerent Donald Trumps!


JN23
Posts: 3024
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:14 am

Re: US election - prediction

Post by JN23 »

Option or Prime wrote:
Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:00 pm
Its actually quite interesting about hm staying on. Trump conceding is a huge deal if he doesn't there are multiple possibilities. This is worth a watch but basically the constitution is not geared up to deal with stubborn belligerent Donald Trumps!

This takes me back to my politics A-level. 'Is the US constitution effective in today's world or is it outdated?' (or something to that effect), 30 marks.

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