planetf1.com

Bear with me on this one. It might be totally pointless but it will entertain me.

Even though we haven't seen any of the cars yet, who do you believe will be the World Champion of the 2013 F1 season? What I aim to do is see as the season progresses how perceptions change.

So I'll see what people are expecting before the season, what people are expecting after testing, then at a number of stages in the season, just to see how it all changes our expectations. I was considering doing it after every race but that would get boring quickly. For the first number of checks I'll give you a number of options so you can choose contendenders, then as the season progresses, eventually start just using those still in with a shout.

This is the pre testing thoughts, so you'll have to bear in mind recent form, expected car, team form and anything else you can think of. I imagine quite a few people have a good idea on who they expect to be the Championship contenders already. Let me know what you think. I haven't listed the Force India drivers or second Caterham driver, as we aren't sure who they are yet. (I suspect it will be Di Resta in one of the Force Indias though...). I'll include them as and when they are announced.

Alonso and Vettel obviously.
Button should be, but I don't know if he'll be able to consistently go fast. It's mainly Mclaren I'm rating, not Button.

Those were my 3. I'm hoping for Raikkonen too but I don't see it happening, not because of him but because of the Lotus. Great car at times, but not that great at others.

I put Vettel, Alonso, Button and Kimi.
Vettel and RB go without saying to be honest, I'd be more surprised if they weren't in the title hunt from the get go. I don't think they'll have a slow start like last year.
Alonso, I just can't leave him out, even though I don't expect the Ferrari to be the best. His tenacity and the fact he's been in many title hunts says he'll be in it again.
Button, with McLaren getting their act together for the most part before the end of the season, and not having to change the stepped nose lark, and Button being the defacto team leader (equal status... hmm) I see him taking a pip at the title.
Kimi surprised many with his first season back and the Lotus maintained it's alternating good/bad form through the year, with victory in the 18th round. With a year back under his belt I see him taking another shot at the title, though it'd entirely dependent on the car Lotus produce, but I expect it to be good.

I would've liked to say Hamilton, but I can't see it.

jammin78 wrote:I put Vettel, Alonso, Button and Kimi.
Vettel and RB go without saying to be honest, I'd be more surprised if they weren't in the title hunt from the get go. I don't think they'll have a slow start like last year.
Alonso, I just can't leave him out, even though I don't expect the Ferrari to be the best. His tenacity and the fact he's been in many title hunts says he'll be in it again.
Button, with McLaren getting their act together for the most part before the end of the season, and not having to change the stepped nose lark, and Button being the defacto team leader (equal status... hmm) I see him taking a pip at the title.
Kimi surprised many with his first season back and the Lotus maintained it's alternating good/bad form through the year, with victory in the 18th round. With a year back under his belt I see him taking another shot at the title, though it'd entirely dependent on the car Lotus produce, but I expect it to be good.

I would've liked to say Hamilton, but I can't see it.

ditto brother.

ALthough i am surprised to see glock and pic having votes too

Usman wrote:

jammin78 wrote:I put Vettel, Alonso, Button and Kimi.
Vettel and RB go without saying to be honest, I'd be more surprised if they weren't in the title hunt from the get go. I don't think they'll have a slow start like last year.
Alonso, I just can't leave him out, even though I don't expect the Ferrari to be the best. His tenacity and the fact he's been in many title hunts says he'll be in it again.
Button, with McLaren getting their act together for the most part before the end of the season, and not having to change the stepped nose lark, and Button being the defacto team leader (equal status... hmm) I see him taking a pip at the title.
Kimi surprised many with his first season back and the Lotus maintained it's alternating good/bad form through the year, with victory in the 18th round. With a year back under his belt I see him taking another shot at the title, though it'd entirely dependent on the car Lotus produce, but I expect it to be good.

I would've liked to say Hamilton, but I can't see it.

ditto brother.

ALthough i am surprised to see glock and pic having votes too

I think they could be joke votes. Not sure why, something's just telling me they're not serious...

Vettel
Alonso
Kimi
Perez

Based on that Pole, people think that chilton is more likely than Perez....seems legit

robberred1993 wrote:Based on that Pole, people think that chilton is more likely than Perez....seems legit

Yeah, good to see people are either deluded or don't take it seriously. Not that you must be serious to be on a forum, would just be nice sometimes haha.

Vettel.

There won't be any other title contenders because Red Bull are going to walk this season. I expect to see a more stable order this year. The field will still be very closely matched on laptime, like they were at the beginning of last year, but without the unpredictibility. The only way I see the competitive order changing from race to race again is if the tyres are completely barmy.

Just like 2011, Vettel will make the most of a somewhat superior, but not dominant, car. His performances will make the car appear dominant.

The WDC standings will look something like this...
1. Vettel
(big gap of around three race wins)
2. Webber
3. Button
(gap of around one win)
4. Alonso
5. Perez
(another big gap)
6. Hamilton
7. Massa
... And then another big gap to everyone else. IMO Lotus will be the winning force that falls away, while Williams and Sauber should return to their more familiar roles in the midfield. The circumstaces we saw last season, where many cars were fighting for victory, were pretty much unprecedented (save for early 80s maybe) and it'll be a long, long time before we see a season like 2012 again.

Vettel & Alonso.

Then Button (if he sorts out his tyres woes).

Then Kimi with a question mark.


I'd like Webber, Massa and Hamilton to be there, but I hardly think it will be the case. Perez is only going to be there as a newbie, so I can't tell how well he will adapt to McLaren: I've left him out

Vettel has to be the favourite, you can't discount Alonso even though Ferrari will probably have an inferior car again, then there is McLaren who seem to be on the same level as Red Bull now so that gives Button a sniff of it, Perez is an unknown at present.

pokerman wrote:Vettel has to be the favourite, you can't discount Alonso even though Ferrari will probably have an inferior car again, then there is McLaren who seem to be on the same level as Red Bull now so that gives Button a sniff of it, Perez is an unknown at present.

Not so sure about that. They've got 2 new aero guys and are using the Toyota state of the art wind tunnel in Germany until they sort out their own. This can be a plus, if they could almost get the WDC with a dodgy car... On the other hand RB had a "bad" first 2012, until they sorted out their issues with the diffusers.

Lots of if's: if McLaren gets the reliability, if Ferrari sort out the aero stuff, if RB start as well as they finished last year.... Getting lost now!

I voted for usual suspects: Vattel, Alonso, Button and Raikkonen. Though to be perfectly frank, I don't think that Jenson and Kimi will hold their chances to the very end of campaign. I mean, Button can be exceptional, but he needs to find that sweet spot in his car settings and that is not possible all the time. Kimi on the other hand will be driving Lotus and something inside me tells me, that E21 won't be as good as E20 (compared to other cars of course). Also, if Ferrari doesn't pull a really fast car from day 1, Alonso might have some hard time as well.... this leaves me with prediction that it will be Vettel all over again... , I am looking forward to be wrong .

Hard to imagine it being anybody outside of the 'big 5' teams. So:

Red Bull: You can't not say Vettel, can you? Only the most hardened Vettel hater, or somebody who was convinced the 2013 Red Bull will be horrible (and that Adrian Newey wouldn't be able to develop it over the season) wouldn't at least have him as a contender. Webber? I can see him keeping pace with Seb for half, or even three-quarters of the season, but ultimately fading away when it matters most. I don't know whether that makes him a contender or not. In the sense that he could win the WDC, and has a better shot at it than only three or four over drivers, then I suppose it does. Right now, I would say he's a contender, but less of one than his teammate.

McLaren: If JB is ever going to win another WDC, this year surely represents his best shot at it. He'll probably have one of the best cars on the grid, has a teammate who is yet to win a race (and, by the end of 2012, had managed to get people questioning whether he should've even got the drive) and a situation where three of the best drivers on the grid (Alonso, Kimi and Lewis) could be in slower cars. With all that in mind, I definitely think he's a contender. As for Perez, not this year, for me. Think he can win a race or two, but can't see him being a serious contender for the WDC.

Ferrari: Fernando will be a contender unless Ferrari deliver a car that is legitimately terrible. That being said, I don't know if he could possibly have the kind of season he had last year in 2013, just because of how good it was. If Ferrari give him that kind of challenge again this year, can he get that much out of it again? Massa? My heart would love to believe the improvement he showed over 2012, and indeed actually outpacing Alonso, suggests he's going to be a contender in 2013, but my head knows he won't be. I just hope he won't be quite so far off, and would love to see him win a race or two.

Lotus/Mercedes: Assuming you have Alonso, Button, Vettel and maybe Webber as contenders, I couldn't imagine having both Kimi and Lewis also in contention. Maybe it sounds stupid, but I just can't foresee six drivers from five teams fighting for the WDC. So I think you either get Kimi having another strong season and being in the mix, or Merc making a huge stride forwards and Lewis being a challenger. The former seems more likely than the latter, just because of how bad Merc were in '12, but then again they did switch their attention to 2013 pretty early. Anyway, I think you get Kimi or Lewis in contention, unless Ferrari, Red Bull or McLaren have a car that means they're suddenly only the 5th fastest team.

TL;DR: Contenders, IMO, are Alonso, Button, Vettel (with Webber in the mix until 4 or 5 races from the end) and one of Kimi or Lewis. With the Championship itself coming down to Alonso, Button and Vettel.

SchumieRules wrote:

pokerman wrote:Vettel has to be the favourite, you can't discount Alonso even though Ferrari will probably have an inferior car again, then there is McLaren who seem to be on the same level as Red Bull now so that gives Button a sniff of it, Perez is an unknown at present.

Not so sure about that. They've got 2 new aero guys and are using the Toyota state of the art wind tunnel in Germany until they sort out their own. This can be a plus, if they could almost get the WDC with a dodgy car... On the other hand RB had a "bad" first 2012, until they sorted out their issues with the diffusers.

Lots of if's: if McLaren gets the reliability, if Ferrari sort out the aero stuff, if RB start as well as they finished last year.... Getting lost now!

Well i'm just going by the fact that Red Bull have had a faster than Ferrari for the last 4 years now

2013 title contenders prediction:
Vettel: because he'll likely have the best car yet again unless Newey has slipped up.
Alonso: because he's the best driver at the moment.
Button: if McLaren make a great car that suits him.

Hamilton: not unless Mercedes produce something considerably better than 2010, 2011 and 2012 have shown.
Perez: probably still too inexperienced to mount a title challenge.
Räikkönen: hardly, Lotus lacks the big teams' resources and Kimi still has weak qualifying moments.
Webber: no, can't maintain consistency over entire season.

RaisinChips wrote:2013 title contenders prediction:
Vettel: because he'll likely have the best car yet again unless Newey has slipped up.
Alonso: because he's the best driver at the moment.
Button: if McLaren make a great car that suits him.

Hamilton: not unless Mercedes produce something considerably better than 2010, 2011 and 2012 have shown.
Perez: probably still too inexperienced to mount a title challenge.
Räikkönen: hardly, Lotus lacks the big teams' resources and Kimi still has weak qualifying moments.
Webber: no, can't maintain consistency over entire season.

Absolutely spot on with all the comments

Only 6 for Hamilton so far (highest Alonso at 31)

I think he'll be amazing this year along with Raikkonen & Alonso. Button will be there as the car will be good. Red Bull are hit or miss imo. Either outright best (Where I'd add Vettel to that list if I could've done 5) or struggling for podiums in which case Vettel will struggle too

Vettel. I don't think anyone else is going to get a look in this year and we'll see some 2011 style dominance once again.

Button, Raikkonen and Alonso fighting it out for best of the rest.

Alonso, if they can get the car correct

Vettel, because Red Bull is hitting on all 8 or should i say 6 cylinders

Laura23 wrote:Vettel. I don't think anyone else is going to get a look in this year and we'll see some 2011 style dominance once again.

Button, Raikkonen and Alonso fighting it out for best of the rest.

I actually don't feel Vettel will dominate in 2013 like he did in 2011, but it looks like it's down to those four drivers to decide the fate of the WDC, and ultimately I think Vettel will win. The Button/Räikkönen/Alonso-trio could put up quite a fight though, depending on how good the cars of their respective teams turn out to be.

Webber is an outside choice, because he technically has what it takes to challenge, but I simply don't believe he can be up to par with Vettel for the full season, and 2013 could become his last year in F1 (but then again, people said that 9-10 years ago!).

Other than that, not much. Pérez still seems too inexperienced, but we'll have to see what happens. Massa is clear #2 to Alonso. If Lotus come up with a massively good car, Grosjean would somehow have to string together lots of impressive results, and he simply doesn't appear to be consistent enough.
Hamilton in a Mercedes? The car would have to be at least as good, and better really, than it was in 2012 between China and Europe. Can they keep such pace going for longer than five or so races in the beginning of the season? I doubt it.

I'm convinced Jenson will do the business, I just have a gut feeling.

I have a feeling Hamilton will be there. Or there abouts.

Reasons. I think that schumi with his development that he is renound for. May of.built up a era of domination for Hamilton.

Went Vettel, Alonso, Kimi, Lewis.

Vettel for WDC, because I do not believe Ferrari can build a faster car than Newey.

Alonso will do well to close the points gap from last year, same for KR.

LH because I believe he can 'Alonso that Merc' to the front.

Vettel, Alonso, Perez

IXIAN wrote:Went Vettel, Alonso, Kimi, Lewis.

Vettel for WDC, because I do not believe Ferrari can build a faster car than Newey.

Alonso will do well to close the points gap from last year, same for KR.

LH because I believe he can 'Alonso that Merc' to the front.

Really, really hope your right about Lewis but I'm not sure the Merc in 2013 will be as competitive as the Ferrari of 2012.

Vettel should obviously be there. Both him and Red Bull are in an ominous spree.

Alonso's chances are dependent on Ferrari and I say this because there's a good chance Ferrari won't be too competitive in the coming season.

Button ? Its hard to say. If you consider his driving for the whole of last season I thought he was quite dreadful, regardless of his proximity to Hamilton on points. I don't think he can take on Vettel/Alonso for an entire season. But then again its not beyond McLaren to produce a rocket ship. So it can't look too bad for him, and I do expect him to beat Perez.

If Lotus get their act together Kimi could be there. I'd say he has just enough to really trouble Vettel/Alonso. But I'm less certain about Lotus.

Even though I'm not his fan it'll be sad to see Hamilton firmly stuck in midfield. He deserves to be up front but I'm not sure he'll have the equipment to do so. In fact I'm quite sure of the opposite. If his time comes it'll come in 2014.

Vettel, Alonso, Button. I don't think any of the others will have a good enough car (or the case of these 3 teams' second drivers, enough talent / experience) to consistently challenge at the front.

Alonso, Vettel ,Raikkönen
Dark horse : Hamilton

McLaren will drop back midseason, with some upgrades the drivers are unable to get to work

I think Vettel will wrap up the championship with at least one race in hand.

The removal of 'free use of DRS' in practice and qualifying will IMO close up the front of the field and make it harder for Red Bull to secure poles. However, what really affected his overall performance at the beginning of 2012 was the loss of the EBD and the impact on the rear end of the car and once that was sorted out he was right back at the front and also had no problems racing through the field. With that part of the regulations stable for 2013, I can't see him having any issues. So the car and him should be right on it.

The other side to this is that with the stable regulations other teams have a chance to make gains on Red Bull by finding solutions to their problems. However, in 2010 and 2012 when the aforementioned matter was an issue what resulted in the championship going down to the wire rather than Vettel winning it earlier anyway were reliability issues with the Red Bull. The 2010 problems appear to have been solved since 2011 and I believe that Renault feel they have fixed the alternator issues so there's no reason to believe that reliability will be a factor in keeping the championship close. As a team, Red Bull make very few errors.

The Pirelli tyres could have an impact, but Vettel adapted to them the best of anyone in 2011 and whilst I'm not assuming he and Red Bull will be the best at adapting for 2013 I believe they won't struggle. Vettel is IMO also going to take yet another step forward as a driver and his likely challengers are IMO at their peaks already or slightly past them.

I'd anticipate both Alonso and Button being part of the mix that is challenging at the front. Ferrari IMO should be more competitive in qualifying this year and they had good enough race pace last year. Meanwhile McLaren had IMO the fastest car for the largest proportion of last season and what cost them the most points was the team performance with reliability issues, strategic decisions and mistakes during the race with pitstops, which they should have ironed out for 2013. The questionmark is Button's need to find the sweet spot for his car for the weekend, which he struggled to do last year, but with the change in Pirellis IMO that that won't be as much of a problem.

Webber might look as though he could be there, but IMO based on past seasons it will be a false representation. I just don't see him beating Vettel overall however close it might appear at various points.

I don't expect Mercedes to have a car that gives Hamilton a genuine chance to be a challenger.

Lotus are IMO the team that could surprise and if they do then I'd actually expect Raikkonen to be Vettel's closest challenger. He's got the pace, he's consistent, he's a clean, sensible and hard racer who doesn't get into scrapes or do things that result in penalties. I think his qualifying will improve now that he's had a year back in the sport. Raikkonen is also IMO the only driver with Vettel's mental strength when it comes to a championship challenge - his disinterest also means he doesn't succumb to pressure. So how Raikkonen fits in is IMO the biggest unknown.

Vettel. Although Newey is due to have one of his very bad years where nothing goes right (a la Mclaren). It's less about how good Seb is, and more about whether Newey can deliver something both fast and reliable (he tends to be one or the other).

Alonso. He will be there out of sheer force of will, and Massa will be close, but still playing the support role.

Kimi, with a couple of 'ifs' - if he gets back to at least close to how he used to qualify (which was sublime, and better even than Hamilton can do), and if he has a car that has steering he likes right from FP1 in Melbourne.

Can't really see any other stepping up - If Alonso can pull rabbits out of hats when there are no hats, Webber and Button seem to just lose the hat altogether at the most important times. They'll both have a win or two though.

I think Perez is going to be a disappointment for McLaren, like Kova was. Hamilton - I think he'll do well, but not well enough to be a genuine challenger. Both he and Rosberg will be on the podium a bit though.

Awww, every bar Rosberg has a vote! Even Chilton, Glock and Pic have a vote, but not poor Rosberg

jammin78 wrote:Awww, every bar Rosberg has a vote! Even Chilton, Glock and Pic have a vote, but not poor Rosberg

So he must be least likely to be a contender, the forum has spoken!

I think it'll be the Vettel, Alonso, Button, Webber show. Massa if he can get himself together and Ferrari deliver.

I think this is McLaren and Button's time to prove themselves. They should have momentum going off the end of last season and Jenson is the #1 in theory, I know they have equal opportunity but the chances of Sergio hitting the ground running and competing and taking points from Jenson are slim.

It will be same two guys slugging it out. Unless McLaren makes a stunning car. Then maybe we will see one of their two drivers up there. Rest even if they start strongly will fade away like they did last year.

If Vettel dominates again like 2011, borefest yet again It's always the car comments will come.

Ev0lutionz wrote:If Vettel dominates again like 2011, borefest yet again It's always the car comments will come.

Bernie already said he wants Alonso this year, another title for RBR & Vettel is not good for the "sport"

Haribo wrote:

Ev0lutionz wrote:If Vettel dominates again like 2011, borefest yet again It's always the car comments will come.

Bernie already said he wants Alonso this year, another title for RBR & Vettel is not good for the "sport"

I kind of agree, but if Vettel and RBR can win, then that's what they're here to do. I hope for interest's sake that someone other than Vettel wins the title, but has to fight the man to get there. I want to see how Vettel handles NOT winning the title (aside from 09 when he wasn't used to winning so much). I'd like to see how he handles it these days.

Vettel
Alonso
Button
Kimi