Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

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Invade
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Invade »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:58 pm
JN23 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:15 pm
If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.

You’ve just changed the point system and that makes Bottas artificially closer. If you add 43 points onto Bottas (what Bottas has lost) then the gap is about 34. Surely that’s what’s representative?
My specific point is talking about the difference between 2nd and 1st? I thought that was clear? It is true that Hamilton wins a lot more, but with the current points system that makes a bigger advantage.

I'm a bit confused as to how Bottas is missing 43 points. 18 in Britain, 18 / 15 in Eifel, so more like 33 - 36? I thought all the other races was down to his own driving rather than points missed due to luck.


Yea I've taken it a bit far, but I still think I have a point that race wins vs 2nd place wise stretch out the points making the performance gap (points wise) look bigger than drivers that are off the podium. That was my reasoning for doing this system as an example.
Your logic makes no sense to me because it assumes that Bottas would still typically finish one place behind Hamilton if they were driving say, a midfield car where generally drivers are fighting for 1-12 points. Overall, the raw points difference would probably be a bit narrower, but Bottas likely would have a far less flattering percentage of points compared to Hamilton and be far less valuable in making a positive contribution to the overall finishing position of the team in the WCC.

Bottas is driving a supremely dominant car, so generally he doesn't finish lower than 3rd. I think the current impression is actually flattering to Bottas due to his car performance buffer.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by pokerman »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 6:53 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:59 pm
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:44 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:32 pm
Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:28 pm
So is (was) this Bottas' last chance for the WDC? Or will Mercedes just create another behemoth and destroy RBR again, giving Bottas another slim chance at a title?

Imagine that the Silverstone and Eifel GP fortunes were reversed. Bottas would now be right in the hunt for a Championship despite having been much worse than Hamilton throughout the season. Bottas has had 1 DNF and a virtual DNF and Hamilton has had 0. All it takes is a bit of luck, but it will likely only be meaningful if Mercedes have an extremely dominant car. Otherwise, what sort of hope can Bottas have in outdueling both Hamilton and Verstappen if RBR are able to compete? Pretty much zero, no?

But if Mercedes crush it yet again in 2021 and some luck goes Bottas' way, it's not out of the realms of possibility for him to achieve his dream. He'd need that luck, his best possible form, and a lull from #44.
The reality is that both drivers have lost the same amount of points, Hamilton not as obvious because of stewards decisions and a qualifying fiasco, we basically need Hamilton to have 100% of the bad luck like what we saw in 2016 and like you say that also needs to be combined with a dominant car.
Hamilton has to be held partly responsible for his actions in Italy and Russia though. He also could have easily backed off in the first race (as well as qualifying come to think of it) to avoid his penalty. Bottas's two zero point finishes were both totally out of his control. Hamilton has certainly lost some points this year, but most of what he has lost have been avoidable had he done things differently himself.

So in terms of bad luck, I don't think it is very close in terms of points lost.
True but it's not something you can rely on for next year, the points as they stand at the moment is a true reflection of the performance of the 2 drivers.

Also they can be called debateable penalties when other drivers are not penalised for similar incidents and at Monza it seems most opinion looks to blame the team.
When Bottas is the one that has had worse luck and a race win and second place has by far the biggest points gap between them, I don't think you can say the points gap is a representative difference at all. If luck had been equal and they were both at a worse team, the points difference would obviously be far narrower.

If for example there wasn't such an advantage for the winner and podium finishers and the points system system went like this:

20 for the winner, going down 2 at a time to 10th place getting 2 points. I know this isn't reality, but it completely changes the results for Hamilton, and not so much Bottas.

If things were scored this way, Bottas only loses 5 points. Hamilton loses 36. This would leave them 46 points apart rather than 77 (typical number!). Then just add up those two times Bottas effectively didn't finish but was on target for 2nd place, another 36 points leaving them just 10 points apart. But to be realistic in terms of them both having equal luck, I think around 20 points difference would be more representative.

My main point here is that the points system does allow Hamilton to make the points gap more large than the realistic gap between him and Bottas would be, and that is why I don't really agree with your point.


Still doesn't mean I think Bottas is close to Hamilton's level though.
I agree that greatly devaluing the points for winning would help out Bottas greatly and that would be his best chance of beating Hamilton however if ever the time came that winning meant so little then I'm not sure I would be watching, finishing races being more important than actually winning races.
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TheGiantHogweed
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:15 pm
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:58 pm
JN23 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:15 pm
If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.

You’ve just changed the point system and that makes Bottas artificially closer. If you add 43 points onto Bottas (what Bottas has lost) then the gap is about 34. Surely that’s what’s representative?
My specific point is talking about the difference between 2nd and 1st? I thought that was clear? It is true that Hamilton wins a lot more, but with the current points system that makes a bigger advantage.

I'm a bit confused as to how Bottas is missing 43 points. 18 in Britain, 18 / 15 in Eifel, so more like 33 - 36? I thought all the other races was down to his own driving rather than points missed due to luck.


Yea I've taken it a bit far, but I still think I have a point that race wins vs 2nd place wise stretch out the points making the performance gap (points wise) look bigger than drivers that are off the podium. That was my reasoning for doing this system as an example.
Your logic makes no sense to me because it assumes that Bottas would still typically finish one place behind Hamilton if they were driving say, a midfield car where generally drivers are fighting for 1-12 points. Overall, the raw points difference would probably be a bit narrower, but Bottas likely would have a far less flattering percentage of points compared to Hamilton and be far less valuable in making a positive contribution to the overall finishing position of the team in the WCC.

Bottas is driving a supremely dominant car, so generally he doesn't finish lower than 3rd. I think the current impression is actually flattering to Bottas due to his car performance buffer.
Well, I would have thought that is many think the car flatters Bottas as it is dominant, that people would think Hamilton has to much of an easy time in the same dominant car against such an easy team mate.

But I think that Hamilton is as great as people say he is. But I see so many imply he is so good at the same time as Bottas being poor. I don't think Bottas's weaknesses are exactly hidden because he's in such a car. He's shown his weaknesses quite a few times this year. I would say he looked stronger at williams than he does now, but in reality, I think he's better than he was back then and it is Hamilton's level that makes him look this much worse.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by JN23 »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:58 pm
JN23 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:15 pm
If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.

You’ve just changed the point system and that makes Bottas artificially closer. If you add 43 points onto Bottas (what Bottas has lost) then the gap is about 34. Surely that’s what’s representative?
My specific point is talking about the difference between 2nd and 1st? I thought that was clear? It is true that Hamilton wins a lot more, but with the current points system that makes a bigger advantage.

I'm a bit confused as to how Bottas is missing 43 points. 18 in Britain, 18 / 15 in Eifel, so more like 33 - 36? I thought all the other races was down to his own driving rather than points missed due to luck.


Yea I've taken it a bit far, but I still think I have a point that race wins vs 2nd place wise stretch out the points making the performance gap (points wise) look bigger than drivers that are off the podium. That was my reasoning for doing this system as an example.
I got the numbers wrong, I used 25 as if Bottas was still in the lead at Eifel GP which he wasn’t. Second would have been still possible so I’d say he’s lost 36 points through luck so a 41 point lead is what one might say would look representative when taking into account bad luck.

The points system is the points system, I don’t get your point of using a different one (that’s never been in F1) to try and demonstrate something. The gap between them on race day has been pretty big this season. It’s 9-3 to Hamilton which includes Monza for Bottas where he was comprehensively outperformed by Hamilton.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Badgeronimous »

You seen in 2018 what Bottas can do when there are other teams challenging with fast drivers in them.

If your team mates winning 11 races, you shouldn't be finishing 5th if you're WDC worthy.

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Invade
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Invade »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:54 pm
Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:15 pm
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:58 pm
JN23 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:15 pm
If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.

You’ve just changed the point system and that makes Bottas artificially closer. If you add 43 points onto Bottas (what Bottas has lost) then the gap is about 34. Surely that’s what’s representative?
My specific point is talking about the difference between 2nd and 1st? I thought that was clear? It is true that Hamilton wins a lot more, but with the current points system that makes a bigger advantage.

I'm a bit confused as to how Bottas is missing 43 points. 18 in Britain, 18 / 15 in Eifel, so more like 33 - 36? I thought all the other races was down to his own driving rather than points missed due to luck.


Yea I've taken it a bit far, but I still think I have a point that race wins vs 2nd place wise stretch out the points making the performance gap (points wise) look bigger than drivers that are off the podium. That was my reasoning for doing this system as an example.
Your logic makes no sense to me because it assumes that Bottas would still typically finish one place behind Hamilton if they were driving say, a midfield car where generally drivers are fighting for 1-12 points. Overall, the raw points difference would probably be a bit narrower, but Bottas likely would have a far less flattering percentage of points compared to Hamilton and be far less valuable in making a positive contribution to the overall finishing position of the team in the WCC.

Bottas is driving a supremely dominant car, so generally he doesn't finish lower than 3rd. I think the current impression is actually flattering to Bottas due to his car performance buffer.
Well, I would have thought that is many think the car flatters Bottas as it is dominant, that people would think Hamilton has to much of an easy time in the same dominant car against such an easy team mate.

But I think that Hamilton is as great as people say he is. But I see so many imply he is so good at the same time as Bottas being poor. I don't think Bottas's weaknesses are exactly hidden because he's in such a car. He's shown his weaknesses quite a few times this year. I would say he looked stronger at williams than he does now, but in reality, I think he's better than he was back then and it is Hamilton's level that makes him look this much worse.
It's not about his inherent weaknesses but his weaknesses in comparison to Hamilton. The entire point I'm making is about the difference between the two drivers and that Bottas' score against Hamilton can easily be seen as flattering given the buffer of car performance. That if other teams were closer, Hamilton would still be able to often separate and that Bottas wouldn't in the clutches of close and plentiful competition from other teams.

If we're comparing both drivers to all the others, then they are both relatively flattered (by varying degrees) going by the points totals - obviously. But that wasn't the point.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

Badgeronimous wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:12 pm
You seen in 2018 what Bottas can do when there are other teams challenging with fast drivers in them.

If your team mates winning 11 races, you shouldn't be finishing 5th if you're WDC worthy.
I could argue that Ferrari was around equal ability wise in 2017 and 2018 overall an I think Vettel was better than Bottas those years. I think it was more bad luck than anything that made Bottas finish 5th. It only will have taken no safety car and a win in China which he was set for to be 3rd. Bottas was very poor in the 2nd half of 2018, but arguably, I think that year was possibly his strongest start of a season against Hamilton.

It was the only time in his career that he very likely will have had 2 race wins in a row without misfortune changing things.

He wasn't worthy of the WDC, but certainly didn't deserve 5th place.

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Invade
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Invade »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:09 am
Badgeronimous wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:12 pm
You seen in 2018 what Bottas can do when there are other teams challenging with fast drivers in them.

If your team mates winning 11 races, you shouldn't be finishing 5th if you're WDC worthy.
I could argue that Ferrari was around equal ability wise in 2017 and 2018 overall an I think Vettel was better than Bottas those years. I think it was more bad luck than anything that made Bottas finish 5th. It only will have taken no safety car and a win in China which he was set for to be 3rd. Bottas was very poor in the 2nd half of 2018, but arguably, I think that year was possibly his strongest start of a season against Hamilton.

It was the only time in his career that he very likely will have had 2 race wins in a row without misfortune changing things.

He wasn't worthy of the WDC, but certainly didn't deserve 5th place.
More retirements for Max and Kimi. Kimi more undermined by teammate hierarchy. 5th is perfectly reasonable. You state he didn't deserve 5th place as though that's a fact but it's close between 3rd and 5th and 5th is as reasonable as 3rd on season performance considering the various fortunes and dynamics.

In short, 5th was deserved.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

Invade wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:17 am
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:09 am
Badgeronimous wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:12 pm
You seen in 2018 what Bottas can do when there are other teams challenging with fast drivers in them.

If your team mates winning 11 races, you shouldn't be finishing 5th if you're WDC worthy.
I could argue that Ferrari was around equal ability wise in 2017 and 2018 overall an I think Vettel was better than Bottas those years. I think it was more bad luck than anything that made Bottas finish 5th. It only will have taken no safety car and a win in China which he was set for to be 3rd. Bottas was very poor in the 2nd half of 2018, but arguably, I think that year was possibly his strongest start of a season against Hamilton.

It was the only time in his career that he very likely will have had 2 race wins in a row without misfortune changing things.

He wasn't worthy of the WDC, but certainly didn't deserve 5th place.
More retirements for Max and Kimi. Kimi more undermined by teammate hierarchy. 5th is perfectly reasonable. You state he didn't deserve 5th place as though that's a fact but it's close between 3rd and 5th and 5th is as reasonable as 3rd on season performance considering the various fortunes and dynamics.

In short, 5th was deserved.
While I think verstappen was better that season than Bottas, two of his retirements were self inflicted pretty much.

Agreed I missed out the level of retirements for KImi though. Red Bull was also clearly worse so I guess 5th is more fair.

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Invade
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Invade »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:31 am
Invade wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:17 am
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:09 am
Badgeronimous wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:12 pm
You seen in 2018 what Bottas can do when there are other teams challenging with fast drivers in them.

If your team mates winning 11 races, you shouldn't be finishing 5th if you're WDC worthy.
I could argue that Ferrari was around equal ability wise in 2017 and 2018 overall an I think Vettel was better than Bottas those years. I think it was more bad luck than anything that made Bottas finish 5th. It only will have taken no safety car and a win in China which he was set for to be 3rd. Bottas was very poor in the 2nd half of 2018, but arguably, I think that year was possibly his strongest start of a season against Hamilton.

It was the only time in his career that he very likely will have had 2 race wins in a row without misfortune changing things.

He wasn't worthy of the WDC, but certainly didn't deserve 5th place.
More retirements for Max and Kimi. Kimi more undermined by teammate hierarchy. 5th is perfectly reasonable. You state he didn't deserve 5th place as though that's a fact but it's close between 3rd and 5th and 5th is as reasonable as 3rd on season performance considering the various fortunes and dynamics.

In short, 5th was deserved.
While I think verstappen was better that season than Bottas, two of his retirements were self inflicted pretty much.

Agreed I missed out the level of retirements for KImi though. Red Bull was also clearly worse so I guess 5th is more fair.
3rd would have also been fair but yeh, I'm saying that 3rd-5th is a logical and reasonable result for Bottas in 2018. 5th is a virtual 3rd and 3rd would have been a virtual 5th.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by pokerman »

JN23 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:59 pm
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:58 pm
JN23 wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:15 pm
If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.

You’ve just changed the point system and that makes Bottas artificially closer. If you add 43 points onto Bottas (what Bottas has lost) then the gap is about 34. Surely that’s what’s representative?
My specific point is talking about the difference between 2nd and 1st? I thought that was clear? It is true that Hamilton wins a lot more, but with the current points system that makes a bigger advantage.

I'm a bit confused as to how Bottas is missing 43 points. 18 in Britain, 18 / 15 in Eifel, so more like 33 - 36? I thought all the other races was down to his own driving rather than points missed due to luck.


Yea I've taken it a bit far, but I still think I have a point that race wins vs 2nd place wise stretch out the points making the performance gap (points wise) look bigger than drivers that are off the podium. That was my reasoning for doing this system as an example.
I got the numbers wrong, I used 25 as if Bottas was still in the lead at Eifel GP which he wasn’t. Second would have been still possible so I’d say he’s lost 36 points through luck so a 41 point lead is what one might say would look representative when taking into account bad luck.

The points system is the points system, I don’t get your point of using a different one (that’s never been in F1) to try and demonstrate something. The gap between them on race day has been pretty big this season. It’s 9-3 to Hamilton which includes Monza for Bottas where he was comprehensively outperformed by Hamilton.
I think you are forgetting that Hamilton and Verstappen pitted under the VSC which put Bottas a fair bit behind, I don't think we can guarantee him second without the retirement.
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by F1_Ernie »

Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:28 pm
So is (was) this Bottas' last chance for the WDC? Or will Mercedes just create another behemoth and destroy RBR again, giving Bottas another slim chance at a title?

Imagine that the Silverstone and Eifel GP fortunes were reversed. Bottas would now be right in the hunt for a Championship despite having been much worse than Hamilton throughout the season. Bottas has had 1 DNF and a virtual DNF and Hamilton has had 0. All it takes is a bit of luck, but it will likely only be meaningful if Mercedes have an extremely dominant car. Otherwise, what sort of hope can Bottas have in outdueling both Hamilton and Verstappen if RBR are able to compete? Pretty much zero, no?

But if Mercedes crush it yet again in 2021 and some luck goes Bottas' way, it's not out of the realms of possibility for him to achieve his dream. He'd need that luck, his best possible form, and a lull from #44.
Same as Rosberg really, Bottas will need the stars aligned to make him WC like Rosberg 2016. Funny thing is Rosberg wasn't even that great in 2016, less wins and poles than Hamilton and his race craft was poor. Like we seen since you don't get those seasons often and Hamilton's reliability has been superb.
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 pm
Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:28 pm
So is (was) this Bottas' last chance for the WDC? Or will Mercedes just create another behemoth and destroy RBR again, giving Bottas another slim chance at a title?

Imagine that the Silverstone and Eifel GP fortunes were reversed. Bottas would now be right in the hunt for a Championship despite having been much worse than Hamilton throughout the season. Bottas has had 1 DNF and a virtual DNF and Hamilton has had 0. All it takes is a bit of luck, but it will likely only be meaningful if Mercedes have an extremely dominant car. Otherwise, what sort of hope can Bottas have in outdueling both Hamilton and Verstappen if RBR are able to compete? Pretty much zero, no?

But if Mercedes crush it yet again in 2021 and some luck goes Bottas' way, it's not out of the realms of possibility for him to achieve his dream. He'd need that luck, his best possible form, and a lull from #44.
Same as Rosberg really, Bottas will need the stars aligned to make him WC like Rosberg 2016. Funny thing is Rosberg wasn't even that great in 2016, less wins and poles than Hamilton and his race craft was poor. Like we seen since you don't get those seasons often and Hamilton's reliability has been superb.
Hamilton's reliability was poor and he kept messing up his starts.

I think the only way Bottas has any chance is by really getting in Hamilton's head. Unsettling him. Talk fairy cakes about him in the press, pull a Rosberg/Schumacher in quali, crash into him a few times. That sort of thing.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by F1_Ernie »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:23 pm
F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 pm
Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:28 pm
So is (was) this Bottas' last chance for the WDC? Or will Mercedes just create another behemoth and destroy RBR again, giving Bottas another slim chance at a title?

Imagine that the Silverstone and Eifel GP fortunes were reversed. Bottas would now be right in the hunt for a Championship despite having been much worse than Hamilton throughout the season. Bottas has had 1 DNF and a virtual DNF and Hamilton has had 0. All it takes is a bit of luck, but it will likely only be meaningful if Mercedes have an extremely dominant car. Otherwise, what sort of hope can Bottas have in outdueling both Hamilton and Verstappen if RBR are able to compete? Pretty much zero, no?

But if Mercedes crush it yet again in 2021 and some luck goes Bottas' way, it's not out of the realms of possibility for him to achieve his dream. He'd need that luck, his best possible form, and a lull from #44.
Same as Rosberg really, Bottas will need the stars aligned to make him WC like Rosberg 2016. Funny thing is Rosberg wasn't even that great in 2016, less wins and poles than Hamilton and his race craft was poor. Like we seen since you don't get those seasons often and Hamilton's reliability has been superb.
Hamilton's reliability was poor and he kept messing up his starts.

I think the only way Bottas has any chance is by really getting in Hamilton's head. Unsettling him. Talk fairy cakes about him in the press, pull a Rosberg/Schumacher in quali, crash into him a few times. That sort of thing.
I personally think you do that against Hamilton and it makes him a stronger/better driver, it never worked for Rosberg, well it didnt help to make him WC. There was also the changing of engineers which was wierd, has that happened again since Bottas has joined? Cant ever see Bottas beating Hamilton on driving alone.
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:47 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:23 pm
F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 pm
Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:28 pm
So is (was) this Bottas' last chance for the WDC? Or will Mercedes just create another behemoth and destroy RBR again, giving Bottas another slim chance at a title?

Imagine that the Silverstone and Eifel GP fortunes were reversed. Bottas would now be right in the hunt for a Championship despite having been much worse than Hamilton throughout the season. Bottas has had 1 DNF and a virtual DNF and Hamilton has had 0. All it takes is a bit of luck, but it will likely only be meaningful if Mercedes have an extremely dominant car. Otherwise, what sort of hope can Bottas have in outdueling both Hamilton and Verstappen if RBR are able to compete? Pretty much zero, no?

But if Mercedes crush it yet again in 2021 and some luck goes Bottas' way, it's not out of the realms of possibility for him to achieve his dream. He'd need that luck, his best possible form, and a lull from #44.
Same as Rosberg really, Bottas will need the stars aligned to make him WC like Rosberg 2016. Funny thing is Rosberg wasn't even that great in 2016, less wins and poles than Hamilton and his race craft was poor. Like we seen since you don't get those seasons often and Hamilton's reliability has been superb.
Hamilton's reliability was poor and he kept messing up his starts.

I think the only way Bottas has any chance is by really getting in Hamilton's head. Unsettling him. Talk fairy cakes about him in the press, pull a Rosberg/Schumacher in quali, crash into him a few times. That sort of thing.
I personally think you do that against Hamilton and it makes him a stronger/better driver, it never worked for Rosberg, well it didnt help to make him WC. There was also the changing of engineers which was wierd, has that happened again since Bottas has joined? Cant ever see Bottas beating Hamilton on driving alone.
I disagree. Hamilton drives much better when he feels comfortable. He's a better driver 2017-onwards than he was 2014-16. Rosberg really got in his head.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by F1_Ernie »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:32 am
F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:47 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:23 pm
F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 pm
Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:28 pm
So is (was) this Bottas' last chance for the WDC? Or will Mercedes just create another behemoth and destroy RBR again, giving Bottas another slim chance at a title?

Imagine that the Silverstone and Eifel GP fortunes were reversed. Bottas would now be right in the hunt for a Championship despite having been much worse than Hamilton throughout the season. Bottas has had 1 DNF and a virtual DNF and Hamilton has had 0. All it takes is a bit of luck, but it will likely only be meaningful if Mercedes have an extremely dominant car. Otherwise, what sort of hope can Bottas have in outdueling both Hamilton and Verstappen if RBR are able to compete? Pretty much zero, no?

But if Mercedes crush it yet again in 2021 and some luck goes Bottas' way, it's not out of the realms of possibility for him to achieve his dream. He'd need that luck, his best possible form, and a lull from #44.
Same as Rosberg really, Bottas will need the stars aligned to make him WC like Rosberg 2016. Funny thing is Rosberg wasn't even that great in 2016, less wins and poles than Hamilton and his race craft was poor. Like we seen since you don't get those seasons often and Hamilton's reliability has been superb.
Hamilton's reliability was poor and he kept messing up his starts.

I think the only way Bottas has any chance is by really getting in Hamilton's head. Unsettling him. Talk fairy cakes about him in the press, pull a Rosberg/Schumacher in quali, crash into him a few times. That sort of thing.
I personally think you do that against Hamilton and it makes him a stronger/better driver, it never worked for Rosberg, well it didnt help to make him WC. There was also the changing of engineers which was wierd, has that happened again since Bottas has joined? Cant ever see Bottas beating Hamilton on driving alone.
I disagree. Hamilton drives much better when he feels comfortable. He's a better driver 2017-onwards than he was 2014-16. Rosberg really got in his head.
2014 and 2015 was pretty much one way, Hamilton drove well. In 2016 after the crash in Spain Hamilton went on to win 6 of the next 7 races. In Austria Rosberg lost points, Rosberg didn't win the title by crashing into Hamilton and that won't work for Bottas. Bottas needs the same as what happened in 2016.
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by pokerman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:23 pm
F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 pm
Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:28 pm
So is (was) this Bottas' last chance for the WDC? Or will Mercedes just create another behemoth and destroy RBR again, giving Bottas another slim chance at a title?

Imagine that the Silverstone and Eifel GP fortunes were reversed. Bottas would now be right in the hunt for a Championship despite having been much worse than Hamilton throughout the season. Bottas has had 1 DNF and a virtual DNF and Hamilton has had 0. All it takes is a bit of luck, but it will likely only be meaningful if Mercedes have an extremely dominant car. Otherwise, what sort of hope can Bottas have in outdueling both Hamilton and Verstappen if RBR are able to compete? Pretty much zero, no?

But if Mercedes crush it yet again in 2021 and some luck goes Bottas' way, it's not out of the realms of possibility for him to achieve his dream. He'd need that luck, his best possible form, and a lull from #44.
Same as Rosberg really, Bottas will need the stars aligned to make him WC like Rosberg 2016. Funny thing is Rosberg wasn't even that great in 2016, less wins and poles than Hamilton and his race craft was poor. Like we seen since you don't get those seasons often and Hamilton's reliability has been superb.
Hamilton's reliability was poor and he kept messing up his starts.

I think the only way Bottas has any chance is by really getting in Hamilton's head. Unsettling him. Talk fairy cakes about him in the press, pull a Rosberg/Schumacher in quali, crash into him a few times. That sort of thing.
The starts were semi-automated and Mercedes had a poor system, since it's been fully in the drivers control the poor starts disappeared.

As for crashing into Hamilton unfortunately Bottas has something called integrity something Hamilton has as well, unlike Rosberg or Schumacher, I think it's something you either have or you don't.
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by pokerman »

F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:47 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:23 pm
F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 pm
Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:28 pm
So is (was) this Bottas' last chance for the WDC? Or will Mercedes just create another behemoth and destroy RBR again, giving Bottas another slim chance at a title?

Imagine that the Silverstone and Eifel GP fortunes were reversed. Bottas would now be right in the hunt for a Championship despite having been much worse than Hamilton throughout the season. Bottas has had 1 DNF and a virtual DNF and Hamilton has had 0. All it takes is a bit of luck, but it will likely only be meaningful if Mercedes have an extremely dominant car. Otherwise, what sort of hope can Bottas have in outdueling both Hamilton and Verstappen if RBR are able to compete? Pretty much zero, no?

But if Mercedes crush it yet again in 2021 and some luck goes Bottas' way, it's not out of the realms of possibility for him to achieve his dream. He'd need that luck, his best possible form, and a lull from #44.
Same as Rosberg really, Bottas will need the stars aligned to make him WC like Rosberg 2016. Funny thing is Rosberg wasn't even that great in 2016, less wins and poles than Hamilton and his race craft was poor. Like we seen since you don't get those seasons often and Hamilton's reliability has been superb.
Hamilton's reliability was poor and he kept messing up his starts.

I think the only way Bottas has any chance is by really getting in Hamilton's head. Unsettling him. Talk fairy cakes about him in the press, pull a Rosberg/Schumacher in quali, crash into him a few times. That sort of thing.
I personally think you do that against Hamilton and it makes him a stronger/better driver, it never worked for Rosberg, well it didnt help to make him WC. There was also the changing of engineers which was wierd, has that happened again since Bottas has joined? Cant ever see Bottas beating Hamilton on driving alone.
Yeah what actually helped Rosberg as much as anything was early season poor starts and reliability issues whilst Rosberg himself had 100% reliability, it's actually debateable how much Rosberg actually did himself.
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Invade »

Bottas has descended to Albon's level in recent races. Imagine the WDC fight this season if we had Bottas and his imaginary twin bro in the Mercedes. It's actually conceivable that Max would have won the WDC, especially with a bit more reliability going his way.

I wouldn't trust Bottas, who most see as at least a solid midfield level driver, to best Max over the course of a season even with a huge car advantage - not at this stage.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Mort Canard »

pokerman wrote:
Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:46 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:23 pm
F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 pm
Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:28 pm
So is (was) this Bottas' last chance for the WDC? Or will Mercedes just create another behemoth and destroy RBR again, giving Bottas another slim chance at a title?

Imagine that the Silverstone and Eifel GP fortunes were reversed. Bottas would now be right in the hunt for a Championship despite having been much worse than Hamilton throughout the season. Bottas has had 1 DNF and a virtual DNF and Hamilton has had 0. All it takes is a bit of luck, but it will likely only be meaningful if Mercedes have an extremely dominant car. Otherwise, what sort of hope can Bottas have in outdueling both Hamilton and Verstappen if RBR are able to compete? Pretty much zero, no?

But if Mercedes crush it yet again in 2021 and some luck goes Bottas' way, it's not out of the realms of possibility for him to achieve his dream. He'd need that luck, his best possible form, and a lull from #44.
Same as Rosberg really, Bottas will need the stars aligned to make him WC like Rosberg 2016. Funny thing is Rosberg wasn't even that great in 2016, less wins and poles than Hamilton and his race craft was poor. Like we seen since you don't get those seasons often and Hamilton's reliability has been superb.
Hamilton's reliability was poor and he kept messing up his starts.

I think the only way Bottas has any chance is by really getting in Hamilton's head. Unsettling him. Talk fairy cakes about him in the press, pull a Rosberg/Schumacher in quali, crash into him a few times. That sort of thing.
The starts were semi-automated and Mercedes had a poor system, since it's been fully in the drivers control the poor starts disappeared.

As for crashing into Hamilton unfortunately Bottas has something called integrity something Hamilton has as well, unlike Rosberg or Schumacher, I think it's something you either have or you don't.
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Schumacher forever#1 »

F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 pm
Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:28 pm
So is (was) this Bottas' last chance for the WDC? Or will Mercedes just create another behemoth and destroy RBR again, giving Bottas another slim chance at a title?

Imagine that the Silverstone and Eifel GP fortunes were reversed. Bottas would now be right in the hunt for a Championship despite having been much worse than Hamilton throughout the season. Bottas has had 1 DNF and a virtual DNF and Hamilton has had 0. All it takes is a bit of luck, but it will likely only be meaningful if Mercedes have an extremely dominant car. Otherwise, what sort of hope can Bottas have in outdueling both Hamilton and Verstappen if RBR are able to compete? Pretty much zero, no?

But if Mercedes crush it yet again in 2021 and some luck goes Bottas' way, it's not out of the realms of possibility for him to achieve his dream. He'd need that luck, his best possible form, and a lull from #44.
Same as Rosberg really, Bottas will need the stars aligned to make him WC like Rosberg 2016. Funny thing is Rosberg wasn't even that great in 2016, less wins and poles than Hamilton and his race craft was poor. Like we seen since you don't get those seasons often and Hamilton's reliability has been superb.
I think you're being really unfair on Rosberg. Yes, Rosberg had less misfortune than Hamilton, but still beat Hamilton in a significant amount of races. Bottas rarely, if ever, shows both better qualifying pace and race pace compared to Hamilton.

Comparing Rosberg with Bottas is like comparing Hulk and Stroll (Through Perez). Other than qualifying pace, Bottas shows nothing to illustrate him being on the same level as Rosberg.
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Invade »

The biggest difference is Rosberg was able to carve out periods of (close but clear) dominance over Hamilton. He produced sustained periods of superiority, whereas all Bottas can manage is occasional blips.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by F1Tyrant »

Invade wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:47 pm
I wouldn't trust Bottas, who most see as at least a solid midfield level driver, to best Max over the course of a season even with a huge car advantage - not at this stage.
Bottas has been outrageously unlucky this season, it's a real trauma conga for him. If we take your Bottas clone, Max would struggle to win the title as both surely wouldn't attract the same level of bad luck.
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Invade »

F1Tyrant wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 7:09 pm
Invade wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:47 pm
I wouldn't trust Bottas, who most see as at least a solid midfield level driver, to best Max over the course of a season even with a huge car advantage - not at this stage.
Bottas has been outrageously unlucky this season, it's a real trauma conga for him. If we take your Bottas clone, Max would struggle to win the title as both surely wouldn't attract the same level of bad luck.
Alright but Max has had is it 4 DNFs? I'm not sure he's had any better luck than Bottas.

But yes it would be super tough for Max, but an actually realistic scenario.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Johnson »

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 7:07 pm
F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 pm
Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:28 pm
So is (was) this Bottas' last chance for the WDC? Or will Mercedes just create another behemoth and destroy RBR again, giving Bottas another slim chance at a title?

Imagine that the Silverstone and Eifel GP fortunes were reversed. Bottas would now be right in the hunt for a Championship despite having been much worse than Hamilton throughout the season. Bottas has had 1 DNF and a virtual DNF and Hamilton has had 0. All it takes is a bit of luck, but it will likely only be meaningful if Mercedes have an extremely dominant car. Otherwise, what sort of hope can Bottas have in outdueling both Hamilton and Verstappen if RBR are able to compete? Pretty much zero, no?

But if Mercedes crush it yet again in 2021 and some luck goes Bottas' way, it's not out of the realms of possibility for him to achieve his dream. He'd need that luck, his best possible form, and a lull from #44.
Same as Rosberg really, Bottas will need the stars aligned to make him WC like Rosberg 2016. Funny thing is Rosberg wasn't even that great in 2016, less wins and poles than Hamilton and his race craft was poor. Like we seen since you don't get those seasons often and Hamilton's reliability has been superb.
I think you're being really unfair on Rosberg. Yes, Rosberg had less misfortune than Hamilton, but still beat Hamilton in a significant amount of races. Bottas rarely, if ever, shows both better qualifying pace and race pace compared to Hamilton.

Comparing Rosberg with Bottas is like comparing Hulk and Stroll (Through Perez). Other than qualifying pace, Bottas shows nothing to illustrate him being on the same level as Rosberg.
Rosberg won 9 races, in 7 of those wins he was leading whilst Hamilton was outside the top 6 on lap 1. Another he lead and Hamilton was P3. The other he was 2nd, Hamilton 5th.

Bottas would have taken the title to the final race in 2016, minimum, there were 6-7 free wins that year for the other Merc driver.
Last edited by Johnson on Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Johnson »

If Hamilton had Bottas’ luck this season. Could he have won the title? 11-2 on wins in Hamiltons favour that would be more 6-7 I believe if the luck switched,

Is there a list of Bottas’ bad luck?

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by F1_Ernie »

Johnson wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:31 am
Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 7:07 pm
F1_Ernie wrote:
Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:17 pm
Invade wrote:
Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:28 pm
So is (was) this Bottas' last chance for the WDC? Or will Mercedes just create another behemoth and destroy RBR again, giving Bottas another slim chance at a title?

Imagine that the Silverstone and Eifel GP fortunes were reversed. Bottas would now be right in the hunt for a Championship despite having been much worse than Hamilton throughout the season. Bottas has had 1 DNF and a virtual DNF and Hamilton has had 0. All it takes is a bit of luck, but it will likely only be meaningful if Mercedes have an extremely dominant car. Otherwise, what sort of hope can Bottas have in outdueling both Hamilton and Verstappen if RBR are able to compete? Pretty much zero, no?

But if Mercedes crush it yet again in 2021 and some luck goes Bottas' way, it's not out of the realms of possibility for him to achieve his dream. He'd need that luck, his best possible form, and a lull from #44.
Same as Rosberg really, Bottas will need the stars aligned to make him WC like Rosberg 2016. Funny thing is Rosberg wasn't even that great in 2016, less wins and poles than Hamilton and his race craft was poor. Like we seen since you don't get those seasons often and Hamilton's reliability has been superb.
I think you're being really unfair on Rosberg. Yes, Rosberg had less misfortune than Hamilton, but still beat Hamilton in a significant amount of races. Bottas rarely, if ever, shows both better qualifying pace and race pace compared to Hamilton.

Comparing Rosberg with Bottas is like comparing Hulk and Stroll (Through Perez). Other than qualifying pace, Bottas shows nothing to illustrate him being on the same level as Rosberg.
Rosberg won 9 races, in 7 of those wins he was leading whilst Hamilton was outside the top 6 on lap 1. Another he lead and Hamilton was P3. The other he was 2nd, Hamilton 5th.

Bottas would have taken the title to the final race in 2016, minimum, there were 6-7 free wins that year for the other Merc driver.
Hamilton generally always had better race pace, tyre wear and fuel management over Rosberg and Bottas. There’s an obsession with Bottas being able to race Hamilton but it’s not exactly something Rosberg could do either, how many times did Rosberg overtake Hamilton to beat him in 14-16? Rosberg was rarely ever able to race Hamilton when the car behind so im not sure why they expect Bottas to be able to do the same.
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Exediron »

F1_Ernie wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:15 am

Hamilton generally always had better race pace, tyre wear and fuel management over Rosberg and Bottas. There’s an obsession with Bottas being able to race Hamilton but it’s not exactly something Rosberg could do either, how many times did Rosberg overtake Hamilton to beat him in 14-16? Rosberg was rarely ever able to race Hamilton when the car behind so im not sure why they expect Bottas to be able to do the same.
Sure, not very many. But how many times did Rosberg utterly lose touch with Hamilton and end up 20-30 seconds behind him?
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by F1_Ernie »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 4:37 am
F1_Ernie wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:15 am

Hamilton generally always had better race pace, tyre wear and fuel management over Rosberg and Bottas. There’s an obsession with Bottas being able to race Hamilton but it’s not exactly something Rosberg could do either, how many times did Rosberg overtake Hamilton to beat him in 14-16? Rosberg was rarely ever able to race Hamilton when the car behind so im not sure why they expect Bottas to be able to do the same.
Sure, not very many. But how many times did Rosberg utterly lose touch with Hamilton and end up 20-30 seconds behind him?
Doesn't really matter how far it is if your behind then your behind. I'm not defending Bottas but I just dont understand why people expect Bottas to do something Rosberg couldn't do and IMO Bottas is up against a better all rounded driver and with other cars in the mix some seasons. Maybe some people remember Bahrain 14 too much but Rosberg had the faster tyres and SC to help out and still couldn't complete a pass.
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Johnson »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 4:37 am
F1_Ernie wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:15 am

Hamilton generally always had better race pace, tyre wear and fuel management over Rosberg and Bottas. There’s an obsession with Bottas being able to race Hamilton but it’s not exactly something Rosberg could do either, how many times did Rosberg overtake Hamilton to beat him in 14-16? Rosberg was rarely ever able to race Hamilton when the car behind so im not sure why they expect Bottas to be able to do the same.
Sure, not very many. But how many times did Rosberg utterly lose touch with Hamilton and end up 20-30 seconds behind him?
That doesn’t happen often to Bottas either. It happened in Portugal this year because Hamilton had to drive quick to keep heat in the tyres. Hamilton is happy to cruise out front with an 8-10 second lead.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QkzcX-B3nPk

This was Bottas's final stop to avoid going back onto a punctured tyre, but he managed to get another puncture somehow in this stint anyway. Seems he is a bad luck magnet. It isn't much of a surprise he struggled in the last stint if he had both a slow puncture and a mix of slightly used and 1 very used tyres!

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Mort Canard »

Valtteri's last four finishes have been: Second, Second, Fourteenth, and Eighth. The question is which Valtteri will show up this weekend? Will he take Lewis's regular place on the top step of the podium or muck about in mid-field?

He has the car to take the victory but will he???
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

Mort Canard wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:13 am
Valtteri's last four finishes have been: Second, Second, Fourteenth, and Eighth. The question is which Valtteri will show up this weekend? Will he take Lewis's regular place on the top step of the podium or muck about in mid-field?

He has the car to take the victory but will he???
To be more fair on him, the pattern should have been more like 2st, 1st, (fair enough he caused his own trouble in Turkey), so 14th and 3rd at worst in Bahrain. It isn't like he hasn't shown up at all recently.

But the damage in two of the races that were not his fault did compromise his performance and result somewhat and I'm not including Turkey.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by F1Tyrant »

I think Valterri can kiss goodbye to a Mercedes seat in 2022.
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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

F1Tyrant wrote:
Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:04 pm
I think Valterri can kiss goodbye to a Mercedes seat in 2022.
If Russell keeps improving and Hamilton decides to leave, i don't think we can be certain about that. But Russell does look like he will keep improving.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by schumilegend »

Bottas what a clown .. According to him he lost to Hamilton by “fine margins”... talk about downright delusional

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:08 pm
F1Tyrant wrote:
Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:04 pm
I think Valterri can kiss goodbye to a Mercedes seat in 2022.
If Russell keeps improving and Hamilton decides to leave, i don't think we can be certain about that. But Russell does look like he will keep improving.
Yes. A Hamilton retirement is Bottas' only chance of a Merc drive in 2022.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by BMWSauber84 »

schumilegend wrote:
Sun Dec 06, 2020 7:46 pm
Bottas what a clown .. According to him he lost to Hamilton by “fine margins”... talk about downright delusional
You seem to be drawing some ridiculously grand conclusions from a small sample size of date. Russell was impressive but in a world where the last safety car didn't happen, he was by no means on course to smash Bottas by a huge margin, and in fact may have been caught up by him. For all we know, Hamilton would have controlled this race very comfortably.

Jack Aitken came in cold at Williams and was a scruffy last corner away from outqualifying Latifi. Does that render Russell's qualifying achievements all season moot? Of course not.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

Just noticed that Bottas will likely end up closer in points to Perez than Hamilton this season despite both of them missing races.

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Re: Official Valtteri Bottas Thread

Post by Exediron »

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