planetf1.com

Posted: **Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:52 am**

Skipping ahead past the more complex Vettel / Stroll estimation, I've done my numbers for Button / Perez and Button / Alonso; this allows me to estimate Alonso / Ocon, as I will do in my next post.

First, the numbers on Button and his teammates.

Perez > Button: (2013) 0.015%

Data (click to show)

This one is an extremely close comparison, as I expected. My version favors Perez very slightly, and it's worth noting that Perez was gaining strongly at the end of the season.

Now for Button and Alonso, a difficult comparison to make with the often extreme unreliability of the McLaren-Honda combination:

Alonso > Button: (2015) 0.051%

Data (click to show)

As expected, the first year of the partnership comes up with a close comparison -- for the first time when I've done one of these, the median actually falls between the two drivers, favoring Alonso by the gap on his side. This is very close to equal.

Alonso > Button: (2016) 0.237%

Data (click to show)

The next season, however, was anything but close. There is a major statistical outlier here, in Alonso's dry qualifying lap in Malaysia which was almost 2% off Button's pace. Alonso solidly outperformed Button in qualifying; the extent to which Button's pending retirement had an effect is open to debate.

Putting the two of them together, we get:

Alonso > Button: (2015, 2016) 0.205%

Data (click to show)

The 2016 season gets more weight due to having more countable results, putting Alonso finally at just over two tenths of a percent ahead.

There will always be some question over which season to believe more between Alonso and Button, since the two differ so much. Personally, I feel that after analyzing the data there is no significant change in Button's form after he announced his retirement, so I am inclined to believe the 2016 season was reasonably accurate.

I will be using the combined seasons in my prediction.

Posted: **Thu Dec 24, 2020 9:03 am**

INITIAL PREDICTION FOR ALONSO / OCON

For this comparison, I will initially be using the Alonso / Button / Perez / Ocon link. It's the most direct link, and it's also the one I've done the numbers for. Later, I intend to examine Alonso / Raikkonen / Vettel / Ricciardo / Ocon for a second data point.

Without any further ado, here are the numbers:

Alonso > Button: -0.205% (2015, 2016)
Perez > Button: -0.015% (2013)
Ocon > Perez: -0.032% (2017, 2018)

Put together, we get:

Alonso > Ocon: -0.158% (2015, 2016)

I'll admit, this one surprised me a bit. I didn't find any particular link of the chain especially unbelievable, but the inference that Alonso is slower -- and by a noticeable amount! -- than Ricciardo is something I didn't expect, and have a bit of trouble getting behind.

I'll up the range slightly by using only Alonso's 2016 season to set a high mark for his comparison to Button, but that only changes it by 0.032%.

Using these numbers, we get an estimated gap of 0.158 - 0.190%, equal to a gap of 0.126 to 0.152 around a 1'20" circuit.

I'll be interested to see what the alternative link -- Alonso / Raikkonen / Vettel / Ricciardo / Ocon -- suggests, and I intend to include that into the range if it disagrees.

For now, though, my prediction is that Alonso is clearly faster than Ocon, but not truly dominant in qualifying -- especially if one includes a downward adjustment for him coming into the team where Ocon is more settled.

Posted: **Thu Dec 24, 2020 1:11 pm**

Exediron wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 24, 2020 9:03 am
INITIAL PREDICTION FOR ALONSO / OCON

For this comparison, I will initially be using the Alonso / Button / Perez / Ocon link. It's the most direct link, and it's also the one I've done the numbers for. Later, I intend to examine Alonso / Raikkonen / Vettel / Ricciardo / Ocon for a second data point.

Without any further ado, here are the numbers:

Alonso > Button: -0.205% (2015, 2016)
Perez > Button: -0.015% (2013)
Ocon > Perez: -0.032% (2017, 2018)

Put together, we get:

Alonso > Ocon: -0.158% (2015, 2016)

I'll admit, this one surprised me a bit. I didn't find any particular link of the chain especially unbelievable, but the inference that Alonso is slower -- and by a noticeable amount! -- than Ricciardo is something I didn't expect, and have a bit of trouble getting behind.

I'll up the range slightly by using only Alonso's 2016 season to set a high mark for his comparison to Button, but that only changes it by 0.032%.

Using these numbers, we get an estimated gap of 0.158 - 0.190%, equal to a gap of 0.126 to 0.152 around a 1'20" circuit.

I'll be interested to see what the alternative link -- Alonso / Raikkonen / Vettel / Ricciardo / Ocon -- suggests, and I intend to include that into the range if it disagrees.

For now, though, my prediction is that Alonso is clearly faster than Ocon, but not truly dominant in qualifying -- especially if one includes a downward adjustment for him coming into the team where Ocon is more settled.

Again same as my prediction.

Posted: **Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:05 pm**

The Alonso to Ocon comparison/chain is the sort of thing that leads me to suspect that some teams/seasons you will see much tighter gaps between the drivers because of how they operate. And it may be as simple as a confidence thing and how they manage the drivers, but I'd guess it is much more complex than that. That said, this relationship will be difficult to judge either way as both drivers have had a faltered last couple of seasons, with both having seasons away. Ocon looked to slowly improve relative to Perez, and has done so again this season after sitting out a year. And who knows how sharp Alonso will be in his come back.

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a much closer fight between Ricciardo and Norris, then between Leclerc and Sainz based on the teams they are racing at, despite the numbers suggesting that the gaps should be similar.

Posted: **Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:58 pm**

WHoff78 wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:05 pm
I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a much closer fight between Ricciardo and Norris, then between Leclerc and Sainz based on the teams they are racing at, despite the numbers suggesting that the gaps should be similar.

The numbers suggest that the gap between Leclerc and Sainz should be bigger than Ricciardo and Norris as shown in this thread.

Posted: **Fri Dec 25, 2020 1:15 am**

pokerman wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:58 pm

WHoff78 wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 24, 2020 8:05 pm
I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a much closer fight between Ricciardo and Norris, then between Leclerc and Sainz based on the teams they are racing at, despite the numbers suggesting that the gaps should be similar.
The numbers suggest that the gap between Leclerc and Sainz should be bigger than Ricciardo and Norris as shown in this thread.

True. That said, I agree with the idea that McLaren drivers are much likelier to get equal treatment than Ferrari drivers. Whatever the gap is between Ricciardo and Norris, it's unlikely to be exaggerated by favoritism.

Posted: **Sun Dec 27, 2020 8:32 am**

I've spent some time today calculating out the other recent Ferrari pairings, namely Alonso / Raikkonen and Vettel / Raikkonen. In addition to providing one guess at the pace between the two of them, this allows a second data point at estimating Alonso / Ocon.

First, Alonso / Raikkonen at Ferrari. This was a one-year pairing, and the data is complicated by the fact that 2014 had an abnormally large share of wet qualifying sessions. I've used the wet data points, and while they don't directly affect the median number they do potentially make it a larger number if Alonso would otherwise have out-qualified Raikkonen by an amount smaller than the median in those sessions.

Alonso > Raikkonen: (2014) 0.679%

Data (click to show)

I think this is on the high side compared to other numbers I've seen for Alonso / Raikkonen. The main reason is, of course, that I'm not throwing out the wet sessions; Alonso beat Kimi in all of them.

Without the wet sessions, the median is 0.251% in Alonso's favor. I suspect the truth lies somewhere in between the two numbers.

Now, moving on to Vettel and Raikkonen. This was a much longer partnership, and it was definitely not consistent from year to year. As you'll see, 2016 is a significant outlier compared to the others:

Vettel > Raikkonen: (2015) 0.389%

Data (click to show)

Vettel > Raikkonen: (2016) 0.022%

Data (click to show)

Vettel > Raikkonen: (2017) 0.299%

Data (click to show)

Vettel > Raikkonen: (2018) 0.251%

Data (click to show)

The other three are broadly consistent, with the final two seasons of 2017 and 2018 being quite similar.

Putting it all together, we get:

Vettel > Raikkonen: (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018) 0.251%

Data (click to show)

By coincidence, the total median is the same as the 2018 median.

The number changes slightly if you throw out 2016, but it's relatively slight clutter in the data and balances out 2015, which is also off average in the other direction.

Posted: **Sun Dec 27, 2020 8:43 am**

And this leads me into my second data point on...

ALONSO / OCON

Using the Alonso / Raikkonen / Vettel / Ricciardo / Ocon link, this is a second estimate to add to the range for the Alonso / Ocon pairing.

Last time, the number suggested a modest but clear advantage for Alonso -- but lower than Ricciardo's advantage from this season. I was surprised by that result. Let's see what this estimate comes up with.

Starting out, we have the range from the Alonso / Raikkonen pairing itself. The high end reflects my actual number; the low end reflects a version halfway between that and my no-wet sessions number.

Alonso > Raikkonen: -0.465% to 0.679%

Comparing that to Vettel's firmer number, we get:

Alonso > Vettel: -0.214% to 0.428%

Combined with the assumptions of:

Ricciardo > Vettel: -0.233%
Ricciardo > Ocon: -0.231%

We see two things. Firstly, we see that Vettel = Ocon, to a very close degree. Second, we get a suggested range for Alonso over Ocon of:

Alonso > Ocon: -0.212% to 0.426%

This new range is clearly higher than the previous Alonso / Button / Perez / Ocon link, and helps establish what I think is the upper end of the range.

I think the low end is more probable here, as I consider the upper end to likely be inflated by Alonso's dominance over Raikkonen in wet qualifying sessions from 2014. if the upper end is accurate, Alonso has similar pace to Verstappen or Leclerc; if the lower end is accurate, Alonso has similar pace to Ricciardo.

Posted: **Sun Dec 27, 2020 12:49 pm**

I have to question whether Alonso > Ocon 0.12s - 0.34s is really a prediction beyond you expect Alonso to beat Ocon.

Posted: **Sun Dec 27, 2020 1:27 pm**

pokerman wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 27, 2020 12:49 pm
I have to question whether Alonso > Ocon 0.12s - 0.34s is really a prediction beyond you expect Alonso to beat Ocon.

To be honest, I value these predictions a lot more when they are transparent about the margin of error. Given the number of steps, we shouldn't expect a particularly precise prediction here.

Posted: **Sun Dec 27, 2020 1:41 pm**

FrogInARaceCar wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 27, 2020 1:27 pm

pokerman wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 27, 2020 12:49 pm
I have to question whether Alonso > Ocon 0.12s - 0.34s is really a prediction beyond you expect Alonso to beat Ocon.
To be honest, I value these predictions a lot more when they are transparent about the margin of error. Given the number of steps, we shouldn't expect a particularly precise prediction here.

Yes I wouldn't really want to disparage the amount of work put in by Exediron just that when people are asking for predictions I'm not sure they were looking for such a wide variance, maybe I'm wrong?

Posted: **Sun Dec 27, 2020 10:44 pm**

pokerman wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 27, 2020 12:49 pm
I have to question whether Alonso > Ocon 0.12s - 0.34s is really a prediction beyond you expect Alonso to beat Ocon.

The Alonso range is quite large, and does indeed represent that I'm not very confident in the result. We have two sources that disagree with each other, and I'm not particularly inclined to believe either of them.

I think at the end, after gathering all the data and crunching all the numbers, I'll probably make my own actual predictions. But the mathematics can only point to the range; anything else (choosing to prioritize one data set over another) is interpretation by me.

Posted: **Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:33 am**

Moving on to laying the groundwork for the Aston Martin comparison, I've now added Stroll / Massa and Stroll / Perez to my data set.

Obviously, Stroll / Massa was a one year partnership in Stroll's rookie season. It was an extremely one-sided comparison (easily the most lopsided I've done yet), and I'm almost certainly not going to use it in my final projection. That said, here it is:

Massa > Stroll: (2017) 0.953%

Data (click to show)

I was curious if Stroll had showed any significant improvement at the end of his year, but no -- his last five qualifying sessions in a row were all over 1% deficits to Massa.

Moving on to the much more recent comparison with Perez, which is actually quite consistent:

Perez > Stroll: (2019) 0.286%

Data (click to show)

Perez > Stroll: (2020) 0.300%

Data (click to show)

Although Stroll was coming into Racing Point in 2019 and was presumably more settled in the car for the 2020 season, his deficit actually grew a little. However, as we'll see, that doesn't end up mattering to the overall median...

Perez > Stroll: (2019, 2020) 0.286%

Data (click to show)

The data shows a very clear and sizable advantage for Perez over the course of the partnership, but nothing like the utter domination displayed by Massa back in 2017. Obviously, Stroll has improved a fair amount since his rookie season.

Or, maybe, he's hugely favored at Racing Point, and Perez would have put up a full percent on him at a more equal team. But I think he's probably improved. Importantly for the sake of this exercise, his last two seasons were quite consistent, implying that he's peaked at a fairly stable level of pace.

Posted: **Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:59 am**

INITIAL PREDICTION FOR VETTEL / STROLL

And now on to the final initial prediction! Having already gathered all the possible data for the paths that can link Stroll to Vettel, I'll be presenting all three here at the same time, although I only expect to use two of them.

First up, Vettel / Raikkonen = Massa / Stroll. I'll admit that I haven't actually calculated Massa and Raikkonen; because I don't think this one is going to be a very good data point, I am simply accepting that Raikkonen = Massa is in fact true.

Vettel > Raikkonen: -0.251%
Massa > Stroll: -0.953%

Which gives us a (very) high end estimate of:

Vettel > Stroll: -1.204%

That would be a horrid, one-sided shellacking, and I don't think any of us expect it to happen. Stroll isn't the driver he was in his rookie season.

Moving on, then, to the much more valid comparison path of Vettel / Ricciardo / Ocon / Perez / Stroll...

Ricciardo > Vettel: -0.233%
Ricciardo > Ocon: -0.231%
Ocon > Perez: -0.032%

Which (in addition to suggesting that Perez, Ocon, and Vettel are all very similar on pace) gives us:

Vettel > Perez: -0.030%
Perez > Stroll: -0.286%
Vettel > Stroll: -0.316%

This is a fairly solid link, and suggests a much more plausible point than the earlier comparison using Stroll's rookie season.

Since we already have the data for it, I'm using going to present the more complicated (and thus less trustworthy) Vettel / Raikkonen / Alonso / Button / Perez / Stroll comparison as another option that relies on different comparisons before Perez.

Vettel > Raikkonen: -0.251%
Alonso > Raikkonen: -0.465% to 0.679%

Alonso > Button: -0.205%
Perez > Button: -0.015%

Suggesting:

Button > Vettel: -0.009% to -0.223%
Perez > Vettel: -0.024% to 0.238%

Much like the previous Ricciardo / Ocon comparison, this one suggests that Vettel and Perez are very similar on pace -- although this one assumes that Perez is faster than Vettel, rather than the other way around. Applying the Perez / Stroll adjustment, we get:

Perez > Stroll: -0.286%
Vettel > Stroll: -0.262% to -0.048%

If we take the low end of the Perez / Vettel estimate (which is close to the Ricciardo / Ocon method), we get a fairly tight and plausible range:

Vettel > Stroll: -0.262% to -0.316%

In short, my prediction is that Vettel will have a similar advantage to Perez over Stroll, with slight variation to either side depending on which comparison you favor.

(that's 0.20s to 0.25s on the hypothetical 1'20" track)

Posted: **Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:53 pm**

Exediron wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 27, 2020 10:44 pm

pokerman wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 27, 2020 12:49 pm
I have to question whether Alonso > Ocon 0.12s - 0.34s is really a prediction beyond you expect Alonso to beat Ocon.
The Alonso range is quite large, and does indeed represent that I'm not very confident in the result. We have two sources that disagree with each other, and I'm not particularly inclined to believe either of them.

I think at the end, after gathering all the data and crunching all the numbers, I'll probably make my own actual predictions. But the mathematics can only point to the range; anything else (choosing to prioritize one data set over another) is interpretation by me.

Ok that's fair enough, I do think there's more to it then just throwing all the numbers into a grinder and seeing what comes out, I say this in particular because you used wet qualifying sessions which I suspect might cause one or two problems.

Posted: **Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:33 pm**

The gap I’m least confident about is Alonso vs Ocon, too many factors to consider.

Posted: **Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:02 pm**

pokerman wrote: ↑
Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:53 pm
Ok that's fair enough, I do think there's more to it then just throwing all the numbers into a grinder and seeing what comes out, I say this in particular because you used wet qualifying sessions which I suspect might cause one or two problems.

Wet qualifying sessions don't cause any particular problem if there's only one or two of them. Using the median instead of mean method, they just appear as a win for one driver or the other, and typically at the high end. But unlike when using the mean numbers, they have no direct effect on the resulting average; if you imagine a data set like this:

+0.200
+0.150
+0.100
+0.050
-0.000
-0.050
-0.100
-0.150
-0.200

The mean and median averages are both 0.000, because the data set is perfectly balanced. If we add a data point of -2.250 for a wet session, it looks like this:

+0.200
+0.150
+0.100
+0.050
-0.000
-0.050
-0.100
-0.150
-0.200
-2.250

It shifts the median to a point between -0.000 and -0.050, for a rough result of -0.025 -- a tiny difference. The mean result, however, incorporates the entire -2.250 data point, resulting in a change from -0.000 to -0.225.

With a sufficiently high number of wet sessions, it will eventually push the median quite low, but generally the effect is no different from adding any other result that's beyond the existing median to one driver's side. That's why I prefer the median method, because it heavily softens the effect of extreme data points on the resulting average.

Posted: **Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:32 pm**

Exediron wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:02 pm

pokerman wrote: ↑
Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:53 pm
Ok that's fair enough, I do think there's more to it then just throwing all the numbers into a grinder and seeing what comes out, I say this in particular because you used wet qualifying sessions which I suspect might cause one or two problems.
Wet qualifying sessions don't cause any particular problem if there's only one or two of them. Using the median instead of mean method, they just appear as a win for one driver or the other, and typically at the high end. But unlike when using the mean numbers, they have no direct effect on the resulting average; if you imagine a data set like this:

+0.200
+0.150
+0.100
+0.050
-0.000
-0.050
-0.100
-0.150
-0.200

The mean and median averages are both 0.000, because the data set is perfectly balanced. If we add a data point of -2.250 for a wet session, it looks like this:

+0.200
+0.150
+0.100
+0.050
-0.000
-0.050
-0.100
-0.150
-0.200
-2.250

It shifts the median to a point between -0.000 and -0.050, for a rough result of -0.025 -- a tiny difference. The mean result, however, incorporates the entire -2.250 data point, resulting in a change from -0.000 to -0.225.

With a sufficiently high number of wet sessions, it will eventually push the median quite low, but generally the effect is no different from adding any other result that's beyond the existing median to one driver's side. That's why I prefer the median method, because it heavily softens the effect of extreme data points on the resulting average.

Still the data being shown is theoretical as opposed to real time, it's just me trying to understand what I often see as bigger numbers as opposed to my more simplistic method were I throw out data completely such as wet qualifying times.

With Alonso and Ocon I have little problem with nailing down a prediction whereas you're getting conflicting predictions, but of course I could still be completely wrong.

Edit: I've just had a quick look at your 2019 Leclerc/Vettel numbers because they are much more in favour for Leclerc than mine and I immediately so a difference at Baku. I threw the data out because Leclerc crashed in Q2 where you gave it to Leclerc by 0.603%, Leclerc crashing basically then stops Vettel from a right to reply. Ultimately Vettel set the fastest lap of them both in Q3, of course I wouldn't include this because Leclerc did not compete in Q3, but even Vettel's improved lap in Q2 is not used even though Leclerc set a similar time in Q2 all be it still slower than his Q1 lap.

As I suspected it's the data being used that is creating the difference with my numbers, as I said it's what's being put into the grinder then seemingly relying on a median to smooth it all out.

Posted: **Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:52 am**

pokerman wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:32 pm
Edit: I've just had a quick look at your 2019 Leclerc/Vettel numbers because they are much more in favour for Leclerc than mine and I immediately so a difference at Baku. I threw the data out because Leclerc crashed in Q2 where you gave it to Leclerc by 0.603%, Leclerc crashing basically then stops Vettel from a right to reply. Ultimately Vettel set the fastest lap of them both in Q3, of course I wouldn't include this because Leclerc did not compete in Q3, but even Vettel's improved lap in Q2 is not used even though Leclerc set a similar time in Q2 all be it still slower than his Q1 lap.

And yet you throwing it out nullifies the data point entirely, instead of reflecting that Leclerc was quicker than Vettel that weekend and would very likely have out-qualified him. Why is that the better way, in your opinion?

From a results point of view, I certainly agree that Leclerc's crash in Baku should be held against him. But all the signs pointed to him being faster than Vettel, and that data should be used in comparing their relative speed. If you nullify it, effectively that makes it as though Vettel had matched him that weekend, which was not the case at all in terms of pace.

On the subject of wet weather, simply throwing out the results also alters the data, particularly if one driver was consistently ahead in the wet sessions. if we look at the 2014 season for Alonso and Raikkonen, throwing out every wet session (5/19 data points) dramatically alters the sample. Since Alonso was ahead in all 5, it turns a 16-3 season into an 11-3 season. In turn, that makes it look like the median result was much closer to a Raikkonen qualifying win.

pokerman wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:32 pm
As I suspected it's the data being used that is creating the difference with my numbers, as I said it's what's being put into the grinder then seemingly relying on a median to smooth it all out.

I have no doubt that the data being used is creating the difference. I also happen to think that you're excluding too much data because of the flaws in the mean average you use. Wet qualifying sessions produce an unrepresentative gap, but not necessarily an unrepresentative result.

Ultimately, the 2021 results will prove whether your more precise numbers are more accurate numbers. If the results fall within my range, but do not agree with your number, than your precision is false precision. If you manage to nail it exactly, then I'll admit that you got it right.

Posted: **Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:33 pm**

Exediron wrote: ↑
Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:52 am

pokerman wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:32 pm
Edit: I've just had a quick look at your 2019 Leclerc/Vettel numbers because they are much more in favour for Leclerc than mine and I immediately so a difference at Baku. I threw the data out because Leclerc crashed in Q2 where you gave it to Leclerc by 0.603%, Leclerc crashing basically then stops Vettel from a right to reply. Ultimately Vettel set the fastest lap of them both in Q3, of course I wouldn't include this because Leclerc did not compete in Q3, but even Vettel's improved lap in Q2 is not used even though Leclerc set a similar time in Q2 all be it still slower than his Q1 lap.
And yet you throwing it out nullifies the data point entirely, instead of reflecting that Leclerc was quicker than Vettel that weekend and would very likely have out-qualified him. Why is that the better way, in your opinion?

From a results point of view, I certainly agree that Leclerc's crash in Baku should be held against him. But all the signs pointed to him being faster than Vettel, and that data should be used in comparing their relative speed. If you nullify it, effectively that makes it as though Vettel had matched him that weekend, which was not the case at all in terms of pace.

On the subject of wet weather, simply throwing out the results also alters the data, particularly if one driver was consistently ahead in the wet sessions. if we look at the 2014 season for Alonso and Raikkonen, throwing out every wet session (5/19 data points) dramatically alters the sample. Since Alonso was ahead in all 5, it turns a 16-3 season into an 11-3 season. In turn, that makes it look like the median result was much closer to a Raikkonen qualifying win.

pokerman wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 29, 2020 10:32 pm
As I suspected it's the data being used that is creating the difference with my numbers, as I said it's what's being put into the grinder then seemingly relying on a median to smooth it all out.
I have no doubt that the data being used is creating the difference. I also happen to think that you're excluding too much data because of the flaws in the mean average you use. Wet qualifying sessions produce an unrepresentative gap, but not necessarily an unrepresentative result.

Ultimately, the 2021 results will prove whether your more precise numbers are more accurate numbers. If the results fall within my range, but do not agree with your number, than your precision is false precision. If you manage to nail it exactly, then I'll admit that you got it right.

I'm mainly highlighting the differences like using wet qualifying times when we're trying to ascertain the fastest driver on a dry track, nevertheless I'm enjoying the subject matter just 11 long months to find the results.

Posted: **Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:33 pm**

Some interesting comments from Andrea Stella recently regarding the McLaren drivers that I'm posting here because it is clearly another variable that affects the time gaps between drivers at different teams, to one degree or another - 'The level of collaboration between the two of them has been incredibly high. It's one of the reasons they are so evenly matched on track. When there is an open and transparent dialogue between team mates, it elevates their performance because they can crosscheck with each other and quickly identify the weak points of the car or find the best approach to a corner.'

It's the sort of relationship that I imagine benefits both drivers in the long run, but would require an ego that does not need to beat their team mate by a huge margin week after week.

Posted: **Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:46 pm**

WHoff78 wrote: ↑
Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:33 pm
Some interesting comments from Andrea Stella recently regarding the McLaren drivers that I'm posting here because it is clearly another variable that affects the time gaps between drivers at different teams, to one degree or another - 'The level of collaboration between the two of them has been incredibly high. It's one of the reasons they are so evenly matched on track. When there is an open and transparent dialogue between team mates, it elevates their performance because they can crosscheck with each other and quickly identify the weak points of the car or find the best approach to a corner.'

It's the sort of relationship that I imagine benefits both drivers in the long run, but would require an ego that does not need to beat their team mate by a huge margin week after week.

That is indeed an interesting variable, and a difficult one to correct for.

To have a truly accurate model (something that I believe is likely impossible with only the data we as fans have access to) you would need several factors in addition to the gaps, including:

a) Level of team favoritism
b) Incumbent advantage / adjustment period for drivers changing team
c) Actual equipment differences, if any

For example, we know that this season Perez and Stroll (and Max and Albon) weren't always driving even the same specification of machinery. Without knowing exactly when, and how much it was worth, it's impossible to accurately handicap the numbers for them.

Posted: **Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:02 pm**

And just to be clear that is in no way meant as a slight against the models or efforts that going into the comparison for which I appreciate the effort. It's just something to consider, but ultimately agree you could never really quantify it when developing comparisons in this way.

Posted: **Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:08 am**

Exediron wrote: ↑
Sun Dec 20, 2020 7:57 am
Okay, I've finished up a few more using my own methodology: Ricciardo / Hulk, Ricciardo / Ocon, Hulk / Sainz, and also Hulk / Perez. This is enough to start making my own predictions, but for now here are the comparisons themselves:

Ricciardo > Hulkenberg: (2019) 0.171%
Data (click to show)
Hungary Q1 HUL -0.604%
Austria Q2 HUL -0.422%
Russia Q3 HUL -0.397%
Japan Q1 HUL -0.226%
Mexico Q2 HUL -0.140%
Germany Q2 HUL -0.045%
Australia Q2 HUL -0.009%
China Q3 RIC -0.004%
Spain Q1 RIC -0.024% Hulkenberg had issues in qualifying
Brazil Q2 RIC -0.026%
Singapore Q3 RIC -0.171% Ricciardo was disqualified for a technicality in Q1
Monaco Q2 RIC -0.177%
France Q2 RIC -0.193%
Bahrain Q1 RIC -0.194%
United States Q2 RIC -0.220%
Britain Q3 RIC -0.236%
Italy Q3 RIC -0.262%
Abu Dhabi Q3 RIC -0.262%
Belgium Q3 RIC -0.272%
Canada Q3 RIC -0.354%
Baku Q1 RIC -0.909%
This was a rare care where the median actually gave a larger differential than the mean average. The reason for that is that when Hulk did out-qualify Ricciardo, it was often by a sizable margin -- but it didn't happen very often.

My model continues to be higher on Ricciardo than mean average cross-comparisons.

Ricciardo > Ocon: (2020) 0.231%
Data (click to show)
Styria Q3 OCO -0.332% [[WET]]
Abu Dhabi Q2 OCO -0.048%
Bahrain Q3 RIC -0.002%
Germany Q3 RIC -0.022%
Mugello Q2 RIC -0.070% Ocon did not set a time in Q3
Hungary Q2 RIC -0.106%
Portugal Q2 RIC -0.171%
Sakhir Q2 RIC -0.229%
Britain Q3 RIC -0.231%
Italy Q2 RIC -0.253%
Russia Q3 RIC -0.280%
Belgium Q3 RIC -0.327%
Imola Q2 RIC -0.329%
70th AGP Q2 RIC -0.430%
Spain Q2 RIC -0.475%
Turkey Q3 RIC -0.911% [[WET]]
Austria Q2 RIC -0.959%
There's no data set or method you can use that would make this anything but one-sided. Ocon only out-qualified Ricciardo twice all year, and a sizable number of Ricciardo's results ahead were large gaps.

And now for the Hulkenberg comparisons (that don't include Ricciardo):

Hulkenberg > Sainz: (2020) 0.181%
Data (click to show)
Spain Q1 SAI -0.561%
Austria Q3 SAI -0.452%
Monaco Q2 SAI -0.172%
Japan Q1 SAI -0.138%
France Q2 SAI -0.107%
Hungary Q1 SAI -0.097% [[Q2 onwards was wet]]
Italy Q1 SAI -0.084% Hulkenberg did not set a time in Q2
Russia Q1 SAI -0.030% Neither driver set a time in Q2
United States Q2 HUL -0.002%
Australia Q3 HUL -0.053%
Germany Q3 HUL -0.181%
Singapore Q2 HUL -0.269%
Canada Q3 HUL -0.270%
Baku Q3 HUL -0.275%
China Q3 HUL -0.309%
Belgium Q1 HUL -0.329%
Mexcio Q3 HUL -0.337%
Abu Dhabi Q2 HUL -0.362%
Brazil Q1 HUL -0.375%
Bahrain Q3 HUL -0.462%
Britain Q1 HUL -0.496%
I'm on record as saying I think this comparison is slanted too heavily towards Hulk, but digging into the numbers I'm less certain. Yes, Sainz did begin the year poorly with four straight defeats -- but he also ended the season the same way. At any rate, the conclusion is that Hulk firmly shaded Sainz during their season together.

This is particularly interesting, considering...

Hulk and Perez!

Now, this one is a little weird, in much the same way Ricciardo vs. Verstappen is. The first year is very different from the other two. In 2014, Hulk was decidedly quicker than Perez (although this is somewhat affected by an abnormally large number of wet races, nearly all of which had Hulk faster). In 2015 and 2016, however, the result was very even -- essentially equal.

Hulkenberg > Perez: (2014) 0.186%
Data (click to show)
Italy Q2 PER -0.482%
Belgium Q2 PER -0.457% [[WET]]
Bahrain Q2 PER -0.387%
Abu Dhabi Q2 PER -0.141%
Monaco Q2 PER -0.116%
United States Q2 PER -0.044%
Japan Q2 PER -0.010%
Germany Q3 HUL -0.026%
Russia Q2 HUL -0.104%
Austria Q2 HUL -0.186%
Canada Q2 HUL -0.224%
Singapore Q2 HUL -0.248%
Brazil Q1 HUL -0.316%
Spain Q2 HUL -0.360%
Hungary Q2 HUL -0.661%
China Q2 HUL -1.198% [[WET]]
Malaysia Q2 HUL -1.364% [[WET]]
Britain Q3 HUL -2.118% [[WET]]
Australia Q2 HUL -3.387% [[WET]]
Hulkenberg > Perez: (2015) 0.032%
Data (click to show)
Italy Q3 PER -0.809%
Abu Dhabi Q3 PER -0.493%
China Q1 PER -0.315%
Belgium Q2 PER -0.301%
Monaco Q2 PER -0.251%
Japan Q2 PER -0.228%
United States Q2 PER -0.103% [[WET]] Q3 did not happen
Mexico Q3 PER -0.089%
Australia Q2 HUL -0.001%
Russia Q3 HUL -0.032%
Singapore Q2 HUL -0.075%
Spain Q1 HUL -0.087%
Bahrain Q2 HUL -0.096%
Malaysia Q2 HUL -0.431% [[WET]]
Britain Q2 HUL -0.609%
Hungary Q2 HUL -0.751%
Brazil Q2 HUL -0.905%
Canada Q3 HUL -0.948% (?)
Austria Q1 HUL -1.658% (?)
Hulkenberg > Perez: (2016) 0.035%
Data (click to show)
Baku Q2 PER -0.844%
Russia Q2 PER -0.500%
Spain Q2 PER -0.237%
Japan Q3 PER -0.196%
China Q2 PER -0.189% Hulkenberg did not set a time in Q3
Malaysia Q3 PER -0.179%
Australia Q2 PER -0.128%
Belgium Q3 PER -0.126%
Italy Q3 PER -0.026%
Abu Dhabi Q3 HUL -0.017%
Germany Q3 HUL -0.035%
Singapore Q3 HUL -0.098%
Brazil Q3 HUL -0.098%
Britain Q2 HUL -0.114%
Canada Q2 HUL -0.203%
Monaco Q3 HUL -0.234%
Austria Q1 HUL -0.402% Perez broke his suspension after one run
Mexico Q2 HUL -0.645%
United States Q2 HUL -0.746%
Bahrain Q1 HUL -0.994% (?)
Hungary Q2 HUL -1.773% [[WET]]
For the combined number of Hulk and Perez, I've come up with two sets of numbers: one including all of 2014-2016, and another using only 2015 and 2016. The two aren't as different as one might imagine, but of course the 2014-2016 sample is less close:

Hulkenberg > Perez: (2014, 2015, 2016) 0.075%
Hulkenberg > Perez: (2015 & 2016) 0.033%

Either way, a very slight edge for Hulk.

Coming up next, the first of my predictions using the previously gathered numbers!

Sainz vs Perez is an interesting one and brings up a potential slip in this comparison.

Sainz was only teammates with Hulkenberg for one season in a car that did not suit his driving style. In Perez’s first year against Hulkenberg, his gap was almost identical to Sainz. The difference is that Perez closed that gap in his second and third season.

Now the question is: would Sainz have done the same? We’ll never know.

I personally rate Perez and Sainz at a similar level. Although according to these cross comparisons, Perez should have about 0.106% on Sainz in equal machinery.

By the way, do you know what the gap between Hamilton and Button is? I have the gap at 0.274%. Mark Hughes has it at 0.288%. Pokerman has it at 0.250s.

I think that’s a very important gap because that will help us assess Hamilton vs Verstappen

Posted: **Mon Jan 25, 2021 8:39 pm**

KingVoid wrote: ↑
Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:08 am
By the way, do you know what the gap between Hamilton and Button is? I have the gap at 0.274%. Mark Hughes has it at 0.288%. Pokerman has it at 0.250s.

I think that’s a very important gap because that will help us assess Hamilton vs Verstappen

I don't have my own numbers for Hamilton / Button, but I have some spare time this afternoon so I might get on that. My gut feeling is that it will be very similar to the gap you have.

Posted: **Mon Jan 25, 2021 9:40 pm**

Alright, as requested I have processed my own numbers for the Hamilton / Button pairing. There's no particular surprises here, but it does enter them in as a data point in this model.

Hamilton > Button: (2010) 0.322%

Data (click to show)

Hamilton > Button: (2011) 0.062%

Data (click to show)

Hamilton > Button: (2012) 0.404%

Data (click to show)

The McLaren partnership wasn't very consistent from year to year, as has already been widely documented. Hamilton struggled greatly in 2011, setting his worst benchmark against Button (and in many ways, his worst in the sport), while Button had several outings in 2012 where he was dramatically off the pace.

Overall, the combined picture doesn't match up particularly well with any individual season, but is closest to their first year together in 2010.

Hamilton > Button: (2010, 2011, 2012) 0.272%

Data (click to show)

Excluding 2011 to adjust for Hamilton's outlying season produces an upper-bounds result of 0.352% in his favor, for what I would estimate as a total range of 0.272-0.352%.

Posted: **Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:01 pm**

Now for the controversial part...

Using the above numbers to enter Hamilton into the comparison pool, it's possible to produce an estimate of how he would compare to the other top drivers:

HAMILTON vs ALONSO

This one actually happened, so it provides an interesting initial data point to see how accurate this comparison might pan out to be.

Hamilton > Button: -0.272% (2010, 2011, 2012)
Alonso > Button: -0.205% (2015, 2016)

Hamilton > Alonso: -0.067% (estimated)

Not bad; without having done the numbers on the 2007 season myself (and adjusted it for fuel), I believe that's actually quite close to the gap that we saw.

Now for the more speculative ones...

HAMILTON vs RICCIARDO

Hamilton can be connected to Ricciardo through Hamilton > Button < Perez < Ocon < Ricciardo.

Hamilton > Button: -0.272% (2010, 2011, 2012)
Perez > Button: -0.015% (2013)
Ocon > Perez: -0.032% (2017, 2018)
Ricciardo > Ocon: -0.231% (2020)

Leading to a final conclusion of:

Ricciardo > Hamilton: -0.006% (estimated)

That's well within what I would consider the margin of error for this model, and amounts to a prediction that Hamilton vs. Ricciardo would be a dead heat.

Which, in turn, leads us on to...

HAMILTON vs VERSTAPPEN

This one is simple, following on from the previous conclusion. If Hamilton is roughly equal to Ricciardo in speed, we know how this match-up would turn out.

Verstappen > Ricciardo: -0.181% (2017, 2018)
Verstappen > Hamilton: -0.187% (estimated)

Since the Verstappen estimate is throwing out his weakest season of 2016 (due to the factor of his mid-year swap), in the interest of fairness one can also compare it to the Hamilton > Button comparison that excludes 2011. Doing that, we get:

Verstappen > Hamilton: -0.107% (estimated)

Still projecting over a tenth of a second advantage to Verstappen.

HAMILTON vs Leclerc

This one is filled with uncertainty, and uses the circuitous route of Hamilton > Button < Perez < Ocon < Ricciardo > Vettel < Leclerc.

Basically, it boils down to this:

Ricciardo > Hamilton: -0.006% (estimated)
Leclerc > Ricciardo: -0.034-0.190% (estimated)

Leclerc > Hamilton: -0.040-0.196% (estimated)

Meaning that even if we assume 2020 was not representative of Leclerc's true pace advantage over Vettel, the model still believes that Leclerc is quicker than Hamilton even on the strength of just the 2019 season.

In terms of favorable comparison vs. favorable comparison (Leclerc with 2020, Hamilton excluding 2011) we'd get Leclerc > Hamilton 0.116%.

Feel free to discuss...

Posted: **Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:10 pm**

Exediron wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:01 pm
Now for the controversial part...

Using the above numbers to enter Hamilton into the comparison pool, it's possible to produce an estimate of how he would compare to the other top drivers:

HAMILTON vs ALONSO

This one actually happened, so it provides an interesting initial data point to see how accurate this comparison might pan out to be.

Hamilton > Button: -0.272% (2010, 2011, 2012)
Alonso > Button: -0.205% (2015, 2016)

Hamilton > Alonso: -0.067% (estimated)

Not bad; without having done the numbers on the 2007 season myself (and adjusted it for fuel), I believe that's actually quite close to the gap that we saw.

Now for the more speculative ones...

HAMILTON vs RICCIARDO

Hamilton can be connected to Ricciardo through Hamilton > Button < Perez < Ocon < Ricciardo.

Hamilton > Button: -0.272% (2010, 2011, 2012)
Perez > Button: -0.015% (2013)
Ocon > Perez: -0.032% (2017, 2018)
Ricciardo > Ocon: -0.231% (2020)

Leading to a final conclusion of:

Ricciardo > Hamilton: -0.006% (estimated)

That's well within what I would consider the margin of error for this model, and amounts to a prediction that Hamilton vs. Ricciardo would be a dead heat.

Which, in turn, leads us on to...

HAMILTON vs VERSTAPPEN

This one is simple, following on from the previous conclusion. If Hamilton is roughly equal to Ricciardo in speed, we know how this match-up would turn out.

Verstappen > Ricciardo: -0.181% (2017, 2018)
Verstappen > Hamilton: -0.187% (estimated)

Since the Verstappen estimate is throwing out his weakest season of 2016 (due to the factor of his mid-year swap), in the interest of fairness one can also compare it to the Hamilton > Button comparison that excludes 2011. Doing that, we get:

Verstappen > Hamilton: -0.107% (estimated)

Still projecting over a tenth of a second advantage to Verstappen.

HAMILTON vs Leclerc

This one is filled with uncertainty, and uses the circuitous route of Hamilton > Button < Perez < Ocon < Ricciardo > Vettel < Leclerc.

Basically, it boils down to this:

Ricciardo > Hamilton: -0.006% (estimated)
Leclerc > Ricciardo: -0.034-0.190% (estimated)

Leclerc > Hamilton: -0.040-0.196% (estimated)

Meaning that even if we assume 2020 was not representative of Leclerc's true pace advantage over Vettel, the model still believes that Leclerc is quicker than Hamilton even on the strength of just the 2019 season.

In terms of favorable comparison vs. favorable comparison (Leclerc with 2020, Hamilton excluding 2011) we'd get Leclerc > Hamilton 0.116%.

Feel free to discuss...

This is really interesting to read, thanks - not sure how it holds up in reality, but I suppose we're all here to speculate and have some fun

I remember Mark Hughes did a comparison for fuel-adjusted qualifying for Hamilton vs teammates, and it showed he was 0.014 seconds slower than Alonso over the season. Can't find it now except on a website we aren't allowed to link on here.

Posted: **Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:20 pm**

I'd expect the fastest of the next gen to be a touch quicker than those of the previous, so those figures fit in line with my intuition, at least.

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:57 am**

Exediron wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:01 pm
Now for the controversial part...

Using the above numbers to enter Hamilton into the comparison pool, it's possible to produce an estimate of how he would compare to the other top drivers:

HAMILTON vs ALONSO

This one actually happened, so it provides an interesting initial data point to see how accurate this comparison might pan out to be.

Hamilton > Button: -0.272% (2010, 2011, 2012)
Alonso > Button: -0.205% (2015, 2016)

Hamilton > Alonso: -0.067% (estimated)

Not bad; without having done the numbers on the 2007 season myself (and adjusted it for fuel), I believe that's actually quite close to the gap that we saw.

Now for the more speculative ones...

HAMILTON vs RICCIARDO

Hamilton can be connected to Ricciardo through Hamilton > Button < Perez < Ocon < Ricciardo.

Hamilton > Button: -0.272% (2010, 2011, 2012)
Perez > Button: -0.015% (2013)
Ocon > Perez: -0.032% (2017, 2018)
Ricciardo > Ocon: -0.231% (2020)

Leading to a final conclusion of:

Ricciardo > Hamilton: -0.006% (estimated)

That's well within what I would consider the margin of error for this model, and amounts to a prediction that Hamilton vs. Ricciardo would be a dead heat.

Which, in turn, leads us on to...

HAMILTON vs VERSTAPPEN

This one is simple, following on from the previous conclusion. If Hamilton is roughly equal to Ricciardo in speed, we know how this match-up would turn out.

Verstappen > Ricciardo: -0.181% (2017, 2018)
Verstappen > Hamilton: -0.187% (estimated)

Since the Verstappen estimate is throwing out his weakest season of 2016 (due to the factor of his mid-year swap), in the interest of fairness one can also compare it to the Hamilton > Button comparison that excludes 2011. Doing that, we get:

Verstappen > Hamilton: -0.107% (estimated)

Still projecting over a tenth of a second advantage to Verstappen.

HAMILTON vs Leclerc

This one is filled with uncertainty, and uses the circuitous route of Hamilton > Button < Perez < Ocon < Ricciardo > Vettel < Leclerc.

Basically, it boils down to this:

Ricciardo > Hamilton: -0.006% (estimated)
Leclerc > Ricciardo: -0.034-0.190% (estimated)

Leclerc > Hamilton: -0.040-0.196% (estimated)

Meaning that even if we assume 2020 was not representative of Leclerc's true pace advantage over Vettel, the model still believes that Leclerc is quicker than Hamilton even on the strength of just the 2019 season.

In terms of favorable comparison vs. favorable comparison (Leclerc with 2020, Hamilton excluding 2011) we'd get Leclerc > Hamilton 0.116%.

Feel free to discuss...

Always good to see this analysis!!

For me I'd say one of the bigger question marks / variables is the Ocon - Ricciardo link with Ocon sitting out the 2019 season, and to a some degree both drivers being new to the team. I expect if he can keep his seat he should develop to be slighly stronger than Perez, but then again Perez I think has really started to stand out more as a driver who can optimize his weekend to get the most out of the tyres over race distance rather than one lap.

I also think the data makes a lot of sense when considered in the context of how the teams tend to treat their two drivers. I know some will agree, and some will disagree, but this does muddy the waters some, and we see that even in a team like Mercedes they treat the drivers differently in seasons like 2017/18 when they are in a serious title fight, to seasons when they hold a bigger advantage. And I wouldn't expect anything different. I think that's one of the things that makes F1 so interesting though, and adds to the intrigue. Perhaps one of the few things right now!

I think the one thing on which everyone can agree is the hope that F1 holds firm, and keep to the proposed rule changes for 2022. If they are seriously considering pushing that back, I only hope that the current climate has not led them to believe that the status quo will be retained through the changes.

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:24 am**

One of my most unpopular Formula 1 opinions is that Ricciardo is as good as Hamilton at everything apart from driving in the rain.

Qualifying pace, race pace, racecraft, consistency, tyre management... Ric is as good as Ham

Ham has one clear advantage, and that is wet weather driving (even Seb was stronger than Dan in this department in 2014)

In every other department, Ham and Ric are equals.

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:41 am**

WHoff78 wrote: ↑
Tue Jan 26, 2021 12:57 am

Exediron wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:01 pm
Now for the controversial part...

Using the above numbers to enter Hamilton into the comparison pool, it's possible to produce an estimate of how he would compare to the other top drivers:

HAMILTON vs ALONSO

This one actually happened, so it provides an interesting initial data point to see how accurate this comparison might pan out to be.

Hamilton > Button: -0.272% (2010, 2011, 2012)
Alonso > Button: -0.205% (2015, 2016)

Hamilton > Alonso: -0.067% (estimated)

Not bad; without having done the numbers on the 2007 season myself (and adjusted it for fuel), I believe that's actually quite close to the gap that we saw.

Now for the more speculative ones...

HAMILTON vs RICCIARDO

Hamilton can be connected to Ricciardo through Hamilton > Button < Perez < Ocon < Ricciardo.

Hamilton > Button: -0.272% (2010, 2011, 2012)
Perez > Button: -0.015% (2013)
Ocon > Perez: -0.032% (2017, 2018)
Ricciardo > Ocon: -0.231% (2020)

Leading to a final conclusion of:

Ricciardo > Hamilton: -0.006% (estimated)

That's well within what I would consider the margin of error for this model, and amounts to a prediction that Hamilton vs. Ricciardo would be a dead heat.

Which, in turn, leads us on to...

HAMILTON vs VERSTAPPEN

This one is simple, following on from the previous conclusion. If Hamilton is roughly equal to Ricciardo in speed, we know how this match-up would turn out.

Verstappen > Ricciardo: -0.181% (2017, 2018)
Verstappen > Hamilton: -0.187% (estimated)

Since the Verstappen estimate is throwing out his weakest season of 2016 (due to the factor of his mid-year swap), in the interest of fairness one can also compare it to the Hamilton > Button comparison that excludes 2011. Doing that, we get:

Verstappen > Hamilton: -0.107% (estimated)

Still projecting over a tenth of a second advantage to Verstappen.

HAMILTON vs Leclerc

This one is filled with uncertainty, and uses the circuitous route of Hamilton > Button < Perez < Ocon < Ricciardo > Vettel < Leclerc.

Basically, it boils down to this:

Ricciardo > Hamilton: -0.006% (estimated)
Leclerc > Ricciardo: -0.034-0.190% (estimated)

Leclerc > Hamilton: -0.040-0.196% (estimated)

Meaning that even if we assume 2020 was not representative of Leclerc's true pace advantage over Vettel, the model still believes that Leclerc is quicker than Hamilton even on the strength of just the 2019 season.

In terms of favorable comparison vs. favorable comparison (Leclerc with 2020, Hamilton excluding 2011) we'd get Leclerc > Hamilton 0.116%.

Feel free to discuss...
Always good to see this analysis!!

For me I'd say one of the bigger question marks / variables is the Ocon - Ricciardo link with Ocon sitting out the 2019 season, and to a some degree both drivers being new to the team. I expect if he can keep his seat he should develop to be slighly stronger than Perez, but then again Perez I think has really started to stand out more as a driver who can optimize his weekend to get the most out of the tyres over race distance rather than one lap.

I also think the data makes a lot of sense when considered in the context of how the teams tend to treat their two drivers. I know some will agree, and some will disagree, but this does muddy the waters some, and we see that even in a team like Mercedes they treat the drivers differently in seasons like 2017/18 when they are in a serious title fight, to seasons when they hold a bigger advantage. And I wouldn't expect anything different. I think that's one of the things that makes F1 so interesting though, and adds to the intrigue. Perhaps one of the few things right now!

I think the one thing on which everyone can agree is the hope that F1 holds firm, and keep to the proposed rule changes for 2022. If they are seriously considering pushing that back, I only hope that the current climate has not led them to believe that the status quo will be retained through the changes.

Whoaaa there buddy! Is there some news I missed?

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:55 am**

Heard some rumours a while back but I have to confess that I have no idea whether it was a credible source, and the article included the fact that F1 had denied the rumours, but that in itself isn't much of a surprise either at this point.

For all I know it could have been one of the Express articles that have been thrown around a little bit lately, but I don't think it would have really registered if that was the case.

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:20 pm**

Exediron wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 25, 2021 10:01 pm
Now for the controversial part...

Using the above numbers to enter Hamilton into the comparison pool, it's possible to produce an estimate of how he would compare to the other top drivers:

HAMILTON vs ALONSO

This one actually happened, so it provides an interesting initial data point to see how accurate this comparison might pan out to be.

Hamilton > Button: -0.272% (2010, 2011, 2012)
Alonso > Button: -0.205% (2015, 2016)

Hamilton > Alonso: -0.067% (estimated)

Not bad; without having done the numbers on the 2007 season myself (and adjusted it for fuel), I believe that's actually quite close to the gap that we saw.

Now for the more speculative ones...

HAMILTON vs RICCIARDO

Hamilton can be connected to Ricciardo through Hamilton > Button < Perez < Ocon < Ricciardo.

Hamilton > Button: -0.272% (2010, 2011, 2012)
Perez > Button: -0.015% (2013)
Ocon > Perez: -0.032% (2017, 2018)
Ricciardo > Ocon: -0.231% (2020)

Leading to a final conclusion of:

Ricciardo > Hamilton: -0.006% (estimated)

That's well within what I would consider the margin of error for this model, and amounts to a prediction that Hamilton vs. Ricciardo would be a dead heat.

Which, in turn, leads us on to...

HAMILTON vs VERSTAPPEN

This one is simple, following on from the previous conclusion. If Hamilton is roughly equal to Ricciardo in speed, we know how this match-up would turn out.

Verstappen > Ricciardo: -0.181% (2017, 2018)
Verstappen > Hamilton: -0.187% (estimated)

Since the Verstappen estimate is throwing out his weakest season of 2016 (due to the factor of his mid-year swap), in the interest of fairness one can also compare it to the Hamilton > Button comparison that excludes 2011. Doing that, we get:

Verstappen > Hamilton: -0.107% (estimated)

Still projecting over a tenth of a second advantage to Verstappen.

HAMILTON vs Leclerc

This one is filled with uncertainty, and uses the circuitous route of Hamilton > Button < Perez < Ocon < Ricciardo > Vettel < Leclerc.

Basically, it boils down to this:

Ricciardo > Hamilton: -0.006% (estimated)
Leclerc > Ricciardo: -0.034-0.190% (estimated)

Leclerc > Hamilton: -0.040-0.196% (estimated)

Meaning that even if we assume 2020 was not representative of Leclerc's true pace advantage over Vettel, the model still believes that Leclerc is quicker than Hamilton even on the strength of just the 2019 season.

In terms of favorable comparison vs. favorable comparison (Leclerc with 2020, Hamilton excluding 2011) we'd get Leclerc > Hamilton 0.116%.

Feel free to discuss...

I've essential no real problems with those numbers, if you include the Hulk into the parameter in respect to Hamilton and Ricciardo that it slightly edges it more in favour in Hamilton, there is a dynamic here were Ricciardo had to get up to speed in his new team in respect to the Hulk and likewise Ocon in respect to Ricciardo plus Ocon had a year out of F1.

Regarding the Hamilton/Alonso comparison that is very close to what I had it in 2007, good work.

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:24 pm**

Invade wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:20 pm
I'd expect the fastest of the next gen to be a touch quicker than those of the previous, so those figures fit in line with my intuition, at least.

Yeah I would agree with that, each generation gets slowly better, that being said I can see it being a while before we see the numbers of Max and Leclerc being bettered.

Posted: **Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:27 pm**

WHoff78 wrote: ↑
Tue Jan 26, 2021 4:55 am
Heard some rumours a while back but I have to confess that I have no idea whether it was a credible source, and the article included the fact that F1 had denied the rumours, but that in itself isn't much of a surprise either at this point.

For all I know it could have been one of the Express articles that have been thrown around a little bit lately, but I don't think it would have really registered if that was the case.

Yeah I think which ever article you read was wrong on that.

Posted: **Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:33 pm**

Invade wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:20 pm
I'd expect the fastest of the next gen to be a touch quicker than those of the previous, so those figures fit in line with my intuition, at least.

But Schumacher was quicker than both Alonso and Hamilton, which contradicts that idea.

I have Schumacher up 0.190% on Hamilton using Button-Barrichello as a reference, and about 0.130% up using Massa-Bottas reference.

Therefore, the ultimate speed of drivers from the 21st century is:

1. Schumacher
2. Verstappen
3. Leclerc
4/5. Hamilton = Ricciardo
6. Alonso

Posted: **Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:04 pm**

KingVoid wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:33 pm

Invade wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:20 pm
I'd expect the fastest of the next gen to be a touch quicker than those of the previous, so those figures fit in line with my intuition, at least.
But Schumacher was quicker than both Alonso and Hamilton, which contradicts that idea.

I have Schumacher up 0.190% on Hamilton using Button-Barrichello as a reference, and about 0.130% up using Massa-Bottas reference.

Therefore, the ultimate speed of drivers from the 21st century is:

1. Schumacher
2. Verstappen
3. Leclerc
4/5. Hamilton = Ricciardo
6. Alonso

This isn't clear. You're relying on synchronic measurements, which relates contemporaneous performance, to be diachronically meaningful regarding absolute performance. There are transitive links but they aren't immune from the slowly shifting band of 'global' or macro performance in a sport. Bobby Fischer had an absurd gap to the field in chess but clearly played weaker chess than Carlsen plays today, who is less dominant over his contemporaries - or even Anand, who was never particularly dominant. OK, the time gaps in these examples are large, but just because in some comparisons there is less distance doesn't mean a difference in general performance, at the top level and of the grid in general, isn't occurring. And that change isn't necessarily linear, but the general trend is improvement and increased professionalism.

In short, relative contemporaneous dominance can't reliably be used to state factually that a driver from one time is faster than a driver from another.

But in terms of who was most ahead of their time, much like Fischer was ahead of his Schumacher was ahead of his. But perhaps Karpov was better than Fischer, and perhaps he would have beat him.

Posted: **Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:36 pm**

Invade wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:04 pm

KingVoid wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:33 pm

Invade wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:20 pm
I'd expect the fastest of the next gen to be a touch quicker than those of the previous, so those figures fit in line with my intuition, at least.
But Schumacher was quicker than both Alonso and Hamilton, which contradicts that idea.

I have Schumacher up 0.190% on Hamilton using Button-Barrichello as a reference, and about 0.130% up using Massa-Bottas reference.

Therefore, the ultimate speed of drivers from the 21st century is:

1. Schumacher
2. Verstappen
3. Leclerc
4/5. Hamilton = Ricciardo
6. Alonso
This isn't clear. You're relying on synchronic measurements, which relates contemporaneous performance, to be diachronically meaningful regarding absolute performance. There are transitive links but they aren't immune from the slowly shifting band of 'global' or macro performance in a sport. Bobby Fischer had an absurd gap to the field in chess but clearly played weaker chess than Carlsen plays today, who is less dominant over his contemporaries - or even Anand, who was never particularly dominant. OK, the time gaps in these examples are large, but just because in some comparisons there is less distance doesn't mean a difference in general performance, at the top level and of the grid in general, isn't occurring. And that change isn't necessarily linear, but the general trend is improvement and increased professionalism.

In short, relative contemporaneous dominance can't reliably be used to state factually that a driver from one time is faster than a driver from another.

But in terms of who was most ahead of their time, much like Fischer was ahead of his Schumacher was ahead of his. But perhaps Karpov was better than Fischer, and perhaps he would have beat him.

Yeah I also broached this subject, drivers in the past often gapped their teammates by over 1 second in qualifying sessions, todays equivalent would be cut back to half a second plus, today's competition is either better or the knowledge is better with access to data, you beat your teammate easily in one race, the next race he gets a 700 page document explaining why it happened.

Posted: **Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:39 pm**

KingVoid wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:33 pm

Invade wrote: ↑
Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:20 pm
I'd expect the fastest of the next gen to be a touch quicker than those of the previous, so those figures fit in line with my intuition, at least.
But Schumacher was quicker than both Alonso and Hamilton, which contradicts that idea.

I have Schumacher up 0.190% on Hamilton using Button-Barrichello as a reference, and about 0.130% up using Massa-Bottas reference.

Therefore, the ultimate speed of drivers from the 21st century is:

1. Schumacher
2. Verstappen
3. Leclerc
4/5. Hamilton = Ricciardo
6. Alonso

You're clearly looking to be selective in how you've done that, the results are clearly:-

1. Schumacher
2. Leclerc
3. Verstappen
4. Hamilton
5/6. Alonso = Ricciardo

planetf1.com

The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread