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The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

https://forum.planetf1.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=16163

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:31 am
by Exediron
IDFD wrote: ↑
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:48 pm
 How could that have worked prior to this season when Verstappen had only had non entities as team mates where you'd have no idea how to place them?

Genuine question. As I don't understand. I had (apparently wrongly) assumed that Riciardos rating was so high due to beating Vettel and Verstappens rating was in kind due to beating Riciardo who'd beat Vettel. Because other than Riciardo, Verstappen had only beaten debuting team mates.
You're right that Verstappen doesn't contribute much statistically to Ricciardo's rating. I was speaking (imprecisely) more of how he's rated by fans; I think at this point in time coming close to Verstappen is viewed as a higher achievement than beating Vettel.

Ricciardo's rating in terms of A>B>C comparisons consists of:

Ricciardo > Vettel (2014): 0.233%
[Ricciardo vs Kvyat, which I've never processed]
Ricciardo < Verstappen (2017-2018): 0.181%
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg (2019): 0.171%
Ricciardo > Ocon (2020): 0.231%

Vettel isn't the only driver on that list who can be linked to others, including to other top drivers. Hulk and Ocon both link to Perez, who can be linked to Button and therefore both Hamilton and Alonso.

It should be noted that with Verstappen > Perez currently hovering around ~0.500, that does fit with the data via Ocon -- suggesting RIC > PER by 0.263, which would suggest Verstappen has improved slightly since 2018 when he would have been expected to be 0.474 up on Perez by that same route.

The other outlier is the Hulkenberg comparison, with Ricciardo looking slower against Hulk than he did against Ocon contrary to other comparisons which suggest Ocon is faster than Hulk.
IDFD wrote: ↑
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:48 pm
 How long in to the season before you start thinking the gaps are representative? If Ric continues like this against Norris for the rest of this season and then next would you assume he's fallen off a cliff or would you start to think Norris is the real deal? Is there another case of a driver falling off this badly since you've been doing the comparisons? I know Hamilton didn't seem himself for the first half of 2013. But it was never this bad.
I think we're at the point where the gaps have to be considered broadly accurate for this season, particularly with ones that are fairly stable like Norris/Ricciardo has been. However, drivers often take a significant step forward in their second season with a team, and until we don't see that with Ricciardo I would consider this season a likely outlier.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 8:04 am
by IDFD
Exediron wrote: ↑
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:31 am
You're right that Verstappen doesn't contribute much statistically to Ricciardo's rating. I was speaking (imprecisely) more of how he's rated by fans; I think at this point in time coming close to Verstappen is viewed as a higher achievement than beating Vettel.
Cheers. Sorry for the misinterpretation. I'd certainly agree with the above at the moment. Especially after Leclerc comfortably beating Vettel too in a team that was Vettels and he's walked in to as an outsider.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:36 pm
by pokerman
IDFD wrote: ↑
Sun Aug 01, 2021 9:31 pm
 Whilst I don't believe this is Ric's representative speed. His position in these comparisons was probably also artificially high because of his 2014 against an under performing Vettel though.
I would say clearly artificially high because of 2014 but not by a huge amount, this year as to be seen as an anomaly thus far, ultimately single seasons need some kind of validation to be taken at face value, the validation will be in what happens next season.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:49 pm
by pokerman
Exediron wrote: ↑
Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:31 am
IDFD wrote: ↑
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:48 pm
 How could that have worked prior to this season when Verstappen had only had non entities as team mates where you'd have no idea how to place them?

Genuine question. As I don't understand. I had (apparently wrongly) assumed that Riciardos rating was so high due to beating Vettel and Verstappens rating was in kind due to beating Riciardo who'd beat Vettel. Because other than Riciardo, Verstappen had only beaten debuting team mates.
You're right that Verstappen doesn't contribute much statistically to Ricciardo's rating. I was speaking (imprecisely) more of how he's rated by fans; I think at this point in time coming close to Verstappen is viewed as a higher achievement than beating Vettel.

Ricciardo's rating in terms of A>B>C comparisons consists of:

Ricciardo > Vettel (2014): 0.233%
[Ricciardo vs Kvyat, which I've never processed]
Ricciardo < Verstappen (2017-2018): 0.181%
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg (2019): 0.171%
Ricciardo > Ocon (2020): 0.231%

Vettel isn't the only driver on that list who can be linked to others, including to other top drivers. Hulk and Ocon both link to Perez, who can be linked to Button and therefore both Hamilton and Alonso.

It should be noted that with Verstappen > Perez currently hovering around ~0.500, that does fit with the data via Ocon -- suggesting RIC > PER by 0.263, which would suggest Verstappen has improved slightly since 2018 when he would have been expected to be 0.474 up on Perez by that same route.

The other outlier is the Hulkenberg comparison, with Ricciardo looking slower against Hulk than he did against Ocon contrary to other comparisons which suggest Ocon is faster than Hulk.
IDFD wrote: ↑
Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:48 pm
 How long in to the season before you start thinking the gaps are representative? If Ric continues like this against Norris for the rest of this season and then next would you assume he's fallen off a cliff or would you start to think Norris is the real deal? Is there another case of a driver falling off this badly since you've been doing the comparisons? I know Hamilton didn't seem himself for the first half of 2013. But it was never this bad.
I think we're at the point where the gaps have to be considered broadly accurate for this season, particularly with ones that are fairly stable like Norris/Ricciardo has been. However, drivers often take a significant step forward in their second season with a team, and until we don't see that with Ricciardo I would consider this season a likely outlier.
Ocon being slower than expected can be easily explained by him having a year out of F1 that's why I always think you need to have some context to the numbers as well, the Perez cross check would suggest that Ocon and the Hulk are close to equal.

the 2014 data I would question because it suggests Ricciardo to be the equal of Hamilton but more recent data against the Hulk and Ocon would suggest otherwise.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:05 am
by Exediron
I'll post an update after the last three races some time soon. I've been away from my main computer quite a lot lately, but I expect I'll get a chance some time this week...

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2021 6:37 am
by Exediron
A rather belated update, due to life stuff that's been happening...

Because it's been three races instead of two, these will include the mean average between two results at the center of the range. It's not ideal, but I didn't want to just throw Italy out despite the fact that it's already happened.

Leclerc / SAINZ
Projected: 0.386% to 0.542% (Leclerc)
Current Result: 0.173% (Leclerc)
Data (click to show)

VERSTAPPEN / PEREZ
Projected: 0.385% - 0.544% (Verstappen)
Current Result: 0.604% (Verstappen)
Data (click to show)

NORRIS / RICCIARDO
Projected: 0.262% - 0.403% (Ricciardo)
Current Result: 0.305% (Norris)
Data (click to show)

STROLL / VETTEL
Projected: 0.262% - 0.316% (Vettel)
Current Result: 0.083% (Vettel)
Data (click to show)

OCON / ALONSO
Projected: 0.158% - 0.426% (Alonso)
Current Result: 0.004% (Alonso)
Data (click to show)

With Verstappen having now gone over the top of the predicted range against Perez, we now have a whopping 0% of these that actually fall inside the predicted range! Yayy...

Norris and Ricciardo remains the only one to be going in the opposite direction to the prediction, although Ocon gained back some ground on Alonso and they are poised on a razor's edge.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2021 8:10 am
by mikeyg123
More positively it has predicted the right overall result 4 times out of 5.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2021 5:42 pm
by pokerman
Yeah I'm a bit behind myself having come back from holiday today, just comparing our two different systems again, mine in brackets, so:-

Leclerc > Sainz 0.173% (0.156%)
Verstappen > Perez 0.604% (0.548%)
Norris > Ricciardo 0.305% (0.307%)
Vettel > Stroll 0.083% (0.097%)
Alonso > Ocon 0.004s (-0.028s)

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:29 pm
by pokerman
4 races down this time but just 3 data points with Monza qualifying being wet.

Right here goes, looking at Leclerc there's not many data points for him, this year he was either excellent or Vettel was sub par, nevertheless at this moment in time I can only go with what happened so:-

Prediction: Leclerc > Sainz 0.47s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.22s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.2s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.15s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.12s

The gap continues to close although Leclerc always seems to have the edge, like I said previously Leclerc's prediction was based purely on how he beat Vettel who we can see now seems to be in decline.


Onto the Max v Perez matchup plenty of data points here to make a more valid judgement with a bit of variance for Perez settling into his new team, so:-

Prediction: Max > Perez 0.31s - 0.36s
Max > Perez 0.34s
Max > Perez 0.35s
Max > Perez 0.37s
Max > Perez 0.43s

This is now starting to move slightly above the prediction however it should be noted that Max gets the car updates first.


Next the Ricciardo/Norris matchup, we have very recent data for this again to make a solid predication, again a bit of variance for Ricciardo settling into his new team, so:-

Prediction: Ricciardo > Norris 0.21s - 0.26s.
Norris > Ricciardo 0.26s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.33s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.33s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.24s

It seems that Ricciardo may be getting more use to the McLaren, the original prediction based on the belief that Norris was barely a top 10 driver, this can no longer be the case, he's clearly stepped his game up.


Moving onto Vettel and Stroll, if he wants to recover his reputation then really needs to improve on this prediction:-

Prediction: Vettel > Stroll 0.2s
Stroll > Vettel 0.02s
Vettel > Stroll 0.05s
Vettel > Stroll 0.07s
Vettel > Stroll 0.07s

The gap seems to be stablising at this level now, I can't even consider Vettel to be a top 10 driver given his performance level these past 2 years.


Alonso against Ocon, can Alonso be back at his best, he needs to because even at his best I would be predicting this:-

Prediction: Alonso > Ocon 0.15s
Ocon > Alonso 0.31
Ocon > Alonso 0.23s
Ocon > Alonso 0.04s
Ocon > Alonso 0.02s

I'm beginning to think this could be Alonso's level now which shows a slight deterioration in one lap speed but come race day Alonso still looks formidable.


Next is something we can't really know, Gasly against Tsunoda, I see Gasly as being a little better than average while Tsunoda is talented and a fast learner, I think he can contain Gasly to no more than this prediction:-

Prediction: Gasly > Tsunoda 0.1s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.3s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.32s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.31s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.46s

Tsunoda seems to be getting worse, I think he has to be thankful for one last year of Honda influence.


Finally two rookies Schumacher and Mazepin, both slow learners so who has impressed me more as juniors and that would be Schumacher, however I don't see Schumacher as being super fast so I predict:-

Prediction: Schumacher > Mazepin 0.1s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.54s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.45s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.4s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.42s

This is now beginning to look like Mazepin's level but Daddy's money will keep him in F1.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2021 4:13 am
by Exediron
Another update after another few races...

Leclerc / SAINZ
Projected: 0.386% to 0.542% (Leclerc)
Current Result: 0.169% (Leclerc)
Data (click to show)

VERSTAPPEN / PEREZ
Projected: 0.385% - 0.544% (Verstappen)
Current Result: 0.506% (Verstappen)
Data (click to show)

NORRIS / RICCIARDO
Projected: 0.262% - 0.403% (Ricciardo)
Current Result: 0.305% (Norris)
Data (click to show)

STROLL / VETTEL
Projected: 0.262% - 0.316% (Vettel)
Current Result: 0.030% (Stroll)
Data (click to show)

OCON / ALONSO
Projected: 0.158% - 0.426% (Alonso)
Current Result: 0.016% (Alonso)
Data (click to show)

Leclerc's advantage over Sainz remains fairly consistent, and still below the bottom of the projection. Verstappen's advantage has slipped backward, and is now within the top of the projected range. Alonso grew his narrow margin slightly, but it remains well below the projection.

One pairing reversed sides entirely: Stroll has retaken the lead in the Aston Martin team head-to-head, which incidentally is the pairing most influenced by the use of FP data where competitive qualifying head-to-heads aren't available.

The Norris/Ricciardo pairing is the only one to experience no change at all.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2021 4:56 pm
by pokerman
For comparison with my system which is in brackets:-

Leclerc 0.169% (0.163%)
Verstappen 0.506% (0.508%)
Norris 0.305% (0.241%)
Stroll 0.03% (-0.123%)
Alonso 0.016% (0.019%)

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sun Nov 07, 2021 5:25 pm
by pokerman
Further update after 3 more races:-

Right here goes, looking at Leclerc there's not many data points for him, last year he was either excellent or Vettel was sub par, nevertheless at this moment in time I can only go with what happened so:-

Prediction: Leclerc > Sainz 0.47s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.22s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.2s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.15s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.12s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.13s

The gap seems to have stabilised now at this level, an over estimation of Leclerc's ability because of a poor Vettel.


Onto the Max v Perez matchup plenty of data points here to make a more valid judgement with a bit of variance for Perez settling into his new team, so:-

Prediction: Max > Perez 0.31s - 0.36s
Max > Perez 0.34s
Max > Perez 0.35s
Max > Perez 0.37s
Max > Perez 0.43s
Max > Perez 0.4s

Just slightly above the prediction but if we take into account the updates I would say reasonably close.


Next the Ricciardo/Norris matchup, we have very recent data for this again to make a solid predication, again a bit of variance for Ricciardo settling into his new team, so:-

Prediction: Ricciardo > Norris 0.21s - 0.26s.
Norris > Ricciardo 0.26s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.33s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.33s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.24s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.19s

Ricciardo beginning to close the gap now as he starts to find his way with the car, next year could be interesting with the two drivers on a more level playing field.


Moving onto Vettel and Stroll, if he wants to recover his reputation then really needs to improve on this prediction:-

Prediction: Vettel > Stroll 0.2s
Stroll > Vettel 0.02s
Vettel > Stroll 0.05s
Vettel > Stroll 0.07s
Vettel > Stroll 0.07s
Vettel > Stroll 0.1s

Vettel slowly stretching the gap, Maybe he can get to Perez's level next year.


Alonso against Ocon, can Alonso be back at his best, he needs to because even at his best I would be predicting this:-

Prediction: Alonso > Ocon 0.15s
Ocon > Alonso 0.31
Ocon > Alonso 0.23s
Ocon > Alonso 0.04s
Ocon > Alonso 0.02s
Alonso > Ocon 0.02s

It's taken a long time for Alonso to turn the tables after a poor start, he probably makes the prediction next year.


Next is something we can't really know, Gasly against Tsunoda, I see Gasly as being a little better than average while Tsunoda is talented and a fast learner, I think he can contain Gasly to no more than this prediction:-

Prediction: Gasly > Tsunoda 0.1s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.3s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.32s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.31s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.46s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.49s

Incredible to think that Tsunoda is still getting worse and not better.


Finally two rookies Schumacher and Mazepin, both slow learners so who has impressed me more as juniors and that would be Schumacher, however I don't see Schumacher as being super fast so I predict:-

Prediction: Schumacher > Mazepin 0.1s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.54s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.45s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.4s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.42s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.41s

Schumacher continues to have Mazepin comfortably in his pocket.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:09 am
by Exediron
2021 FINAL SCORES

The 2021 season is finally over, and that means we have final scores for each driver pairing! How did we do in terms of predicting the match-ups? Well, it wasn't exactly 100% accuracy (thanks a lot, Norris and Sainz), but we got a few of them right at least...

Leclerc / SAINZ
Projected: Leclerc > Sainz 0.386% to 0.542%
2021 Result: Sainz > Leclerc 0.022%
Data (click to show)

Right away, we start off with a miss for the predictive formula. All projections (and most pundits and fans) projected Leclerc to definitively see off the challenge from his new teammate. What happened was nothing of the sort; right from the start Sainz was on it, and through a strong run of form at the end of the season he ended the head-to-head level on results (as I count them) and marginally ahead on average speed.

A big surprise, but one that us nonetheless reinforced by...

NORRIS / RICCIARDO
Projected: Ricciardo > Norris 0.262% - 0.403%
2021 Result: Norris > Ricciardo 0.413%
Data (click to show)

Together with the Ferrari pairing, the McLaren head-to-head takes the cake for the biggest predictive miss of the season. Conveniently, these matchups have two things in common: a pair of former teammates, and a similar margin of error.

Both Norris and Sainz drastically over-performed expectations, but crucially -- having been rated as almost dead equal over the course of their two-year partnership -- they exceeded their projections by a similar margin, lending credence to the result that might otherwise be lacking.

VERSTAPPEN / PEREZ
Projected: Verstappen > Perez 0.385% - 0.544%
2021 Result: Verstappen > Perez 0.506%
Data (click to show)

An eagerly awaited match-up, as much for what it would tell us about Max's ultimate speed as for the prospect of a new (and hopefully more competitive) second driver at Red Bull. Predictably, Verstappen emerged as the clear quicker driver of the pair, dominating Perez to an extent that exceeded many rosy preseason projections for the Mexican.

But not ours! The result of 0.506% in Max's favor was within the upper bounds of my projection, and therefore this one can be claimed as a win. As for what does this result imply about the relative pace of Max and Lewis, stay tuned for a later update on that subject...

STROLL / VETTEL
Projected: Vettel > Stroll 0.262% - 0.316%
2021 Result: Vettel > Stroll 0.083%
Data (click to show)

Another hotly anticipated pairing, if only as a barometer to measure how far the four-time World Champion has fallen since his glory days. The expectation was for a one-sided Vettel victory, and at the least he was widely anticipated to put his new teammate away more comfortably than Perez had been able to before him.

The reality was different, but in the correct direction. After some early struggles, Vettel did indeed emerge as the quicker of the Aston Martin pair -- but not by any more convincing margin than Perez himself had managed. In fact, the Mexican managed almost two whole tenths better, suggesting either a step forward by Stroll or a worse decline for Vettel than anticipated.

OCON / ALONSO
Projected: Alonso > Ocon 0.158% - 0.426%
2021 Result: Alonso > Ocon 0.016%
Data (click to show)

One of the big questions coming into the season was about this pairing. Was Alonso wrong to return to F1 after two years out of the sport? How much of his speed did the former champion retain? And how good is Ocon, really?

Early on, that question seemed to be answered definitively. Alonso began the season struggling badly against his new teammate, and for the first five or six races Ocon looked the faster of the pair over a single lap. By the end of the season, that balance had tilted the other way, ending with a slight advantage for Alonso.

But for anyone who once considered Alonso the fastest driver in the sport (myself, for example) this result has to be taken as an indication that while the Spaniard's steely desire to win may not have faded with age, some of his outright pace almost certainly has...

---

Up next, I plan to compile a relative speed ranking of the grid, as indicated by 2021 season data and the most reliable comparison chains I can assemble.

Who will come out on top? I have a guess, but wait and see! :thumbup:

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:17 am
by Yeboah24
Exediron wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:09 am
 2021 FINAL SCORES

The 2021 season is finally over, and that means we have final scores for each driver pairing! How did we do in terms of predicting the match-ups? Well, it wasn't exactly 100% accuracy (thanks a lot, Norris and Sainz), but we got a few of them right at least...

Leclerc / SAINZ
Projected: Leclerc > Sainz 0.386% to 0.542%
2021 Result: Sainz > Leclerc 0.022%
Data (click to show)

Right away, we start off with a miss for the predictive formula. All projections (and most pundits and fans) projected Leclerc to definitively see off the challenge from his new teammate. What happened was nothing of the sort; right from the start Sainz was on it, and through a strong run of form at the end of the season he ended the head-to-head level on results (as I count them) and marginally ahead on average speed.

A big surprise, but one that us nonetheless reinforced by...

NORRIS / RICCIARDO
Projected: Ricciardo > Norris 0.262% - 0.403%
2021 Result: Norris > Ricciardo 0.413%
Data (click to show)

Together with the Ferrari pairing, the McLaren head-to-head takes the cake for the biggest predictive miss of the season. Conveniently, these matchups have two things in common: a pair of former teammates, and a similar margin of error.

Both Norris and Sainz drastically over-performed expectations, but crucially -- having been rated as almost dead equal over the course of their two-year partnership -- they exceeded their projections by a similar margin, lending credence to the result that might otherwise be lacking.

VERSTAPPEN / PEREZ
Projected: Verstappen > Perez 0.385% - 0.544%
2021 Result: Verstappen > Perez 0.506%
Data (click to show)

An eagerly awaited match-up, as much for what it would tell us about Max's ultimate speed as for the prospect of a new (and hopefully more competitive) second driver at Red Bull. Predictably, Verstappen emerged as the clear quicker driver of the pair, dominating Perez to an extent that exceeded many rosy preseason projections for the Mexican.

But not ours! The result of 0.506% in Max's favor was within the upper bounds of my projection, and therefore this one can be claimed as a win. As for what does this result imply about the relative pace of Max and Lewis, stay tuned for a later update on that subject...

STROLL / VETTEL
Projected: Vettel > Stroll 0.262% - 0.316%
2021 Result: Vettel > Stroll 0.083%
Data (click to show)

Another hotly anticipated pairing, if only as a barometer to measure how far the four-time World Champion has fallen since his glory days. The expectation was for a one-sided Vettel victory, and at the least he was widely anticipated to put his new teammate away more comfortably than Perez had been able to before him.

The reality was different, but in the correct direction. After some early struggles, Vettel did indeed emerge as the quicker of the Aston Martin pair -- but not by any more convincing margin than Perez himself had managed. In fact, the Mexican managed almost two whole tenths better, suggesting either a step forward by Stroll or a worse decline for Vettel than anticipated.

OCON / ALONSO
Projected: Alonso > Ocon 0.158% - 0.426%
2021 Result: Alonso > Ocon 0.016%
Data (click to show)

One of the big questions coming into the season was about this pairing. Was Alonso wrong to return to F1 after two years out of the sport? How much of his speed did the former champion retain? And how good is Ocon, really?

Early on, that question seemed to be answered definitively. Alonso began the season struggling badly against his new teammate, and for the first five or six races Ocon looked the faster of the pair over a single lap. By the end of the season, that balance had tilted the other way, ending with a slight advantage for Alonso.

But for anyone who once considered Alonso the fastest driver in the sport (myself, for example) this result has to be taken as an indication that while the Spaniard's steely desire to win may not have faded with age, some of his outright pace almost certainly has...

---

Up next, I plan to compile a relative speed ranking of the grid, as indicated by 2021 season data and the most reliable comparison chains I can assemble.

Who will come out on top? I have a guess, but wait and see! :thumbup:
Im not knocking what you do, i appreciate your efforts, and likely its our best estimate of drivers vs.

We will however always have that problem of

Measuring drivers relative performance based on totally different formulas
Same as above but
Tyres
Age
Experience

I think for instsnce in the 21 formula Lewis would demolish everyone but Max, but historic data would suggest alonso would run him close.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:00 am
by Exediron
Yeboah24 wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:17 am
 I think for instsnce in the 21 formula Lewis would demolish everyone but Max, but historic data would suggest alonso would run him close.
Trust me; based on the 2021 relatives, Alonso isn't going to end up anywhere near the top.

You're right about all the variables that can't be accounted for. Ultimately, all we can do is use the data we have. I certainly believe that driver performance is not a static year to year, and certainly not era to era, but that sort of discussion is what keeps the sport interesting!

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:26 am
by Yeboah24
Exediron wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:00 am
Yeboah24 wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:17 am
 I think for instsnce in the 21 formula Lewis would demolish everyone but Max, but historic data would suggest alonso would run him close.
Trust me; based on the 2021 relatives, Alonso isn't going to end up anywhere near the top.

You're right about all the variables that can't be accounted for. Ultimately, all we can do is use the data we have. I certainly believe that driver performance is not a static year to year, and certainly not era to era, but that sort of discussion is what keeps the sport interesting!
Kudos for pulling it together. My brain would melt trying

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:20 pm
by pokerman
Exediron wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:09 am
 2021 FINAL SCORES

The 2021 season is finally over, and that means we have final scores for each driver pairing! How did we do in terms of predicting the match-ups? Well, it wasn't exactly 100% accuracy (thanks a lot, Norris and Sainz), but we got a few of them right at least...

Leclerc / SAINZ
Projected: Leclerc > Sainz 0.386% to 0.542%
2021 Result: Sainz > Leclerc 0.022%
Data (click to show)

Right away, we start off with a miss for the predictive formula. All projections (and most pundits and fans) projected Leclerc to definitively see off the challenge from his new teammate. What happened was nothing of the sort; right from the start Sainz was on it, and through a strong run of form at the end of the season he ended the head-to-head level on results (as I count them) and marginally ahead on average speed.

A big surprise, but one that us nonetheless reinforced by...

NORRIS / RICCIARDO
Projected: Ricciardo > Norris 0.262% - 0.403%
2021 Result: Norris > Ricciardo 0.413%
Data (click to show)

Together with the Ferrari pairing, the McLaren head-to-head takes the cake for the biggest predictive miss of the season. Conveniently, these matchups have two things in common: a pair of former teammates, and a similar margin of error.

Both Norris and Sainz drastically over-performed expectations, but crucially -- having been rated as almost dead equal over the course of their two-year partnership -- they exceeded their projections by a similar margin, lending credence to the result that might otherwise be lacking.

VERSTAPPEN / PEREZ
Projected: Verstappen > Perez 0.385% - 0.544%
2021 Result: Verstappen > Perez 0.506%
Data (click to show)

An eagerly awaited match-up, as much for what it would tell us about Max's ultimate speed as for the prospect of a new (and hopefully more competitive) second driver at Red Bull. Predictably, Verstappen emerged as the clear quicker driver of the pair, dominating Perez to an extent that exceeded many rosy preseason projections for the Mexican.

But not ours! The result of 0.506% in Max's favor was within the upper bounds of my projection, and therefore this one can be claimed as a win. As for what does this result imply about the relative pace of Max and Lewis, stay tuned for a later update on that subject...

STROLL / VETTEL
Projected: Vettel > Stroll 0.262% - 0.316%
2021 Result: Vettel > Stroll 0.083%
Data (click to show)

Another hotly anticipated pairing, if only as a barometer to measure how far the four-time World Champion has fallen since his glory days. The expectation was for a one-sided Vettel victory, and at the least he was widely anticipated to put his new teammate away more comfortably than Perez had been able to before him.

The reality was different, but in the correct direction. After some early struggles, Vettel did indeed emerge as the quicker of the Aston Martin pair -- but not by any more convincing margin than Perez himself had managed. In fact, the Mexican managed almost two whole tenths better, suggesting either a step forward by Stroll or a worse decline for Vettel than anticipated.

OCON / ALONSO
Projected: Alonso > Ocon 0.158% - 0.426%
2021 Result: Alonso > Ocon 0.016%
Data (click to show)

One of the big questions coming into the season was about this pairing. Was Alonso wrong to return to F1 after two years out of the sport? How much of his speed did the former champion retain? And how good is Ocon, really?

Early on, that question seemed to be answered definitively. Alonso began the season struggling badly against his new teammate, and for the first five or six races Ocon looked the faster of the pair over a single lap. By the end of the season, that balance had tilted the other way, ending with a slight advantage for Alonso.

But for anyone who once considered Alonso the fastest driver in the sport (myself, for example) this result has to be taken as an indication that while the Spaniard's steely desire to win may not have faded with age, some of his outright pace almost certainly has...

---

Up next, I plan to compile a relative speed ranking of the grid, as indicated by 2021 season data and the most reliable comparison chains I can assemble.

Who will come out on top? I have a guess, but wait and see! :thumbup:
I was surprised to see Sainz edging it when I had Leclerc clearly the winner, double checking our differences, you give Mexico to Sainz but Leclerc set the fastest lap in Q1, you give Portugal to Sainz but Leclerc set the fastest lap in Q2, Russia was wet but I guess you include wet sessions were I don't, finally in Hungary Sainz crashed in Q2 so didn't set a time so you just take Q1 times were Sainz was quicker thus ignoring Leclerc being quicker in Q2, surely at best for Sainz that should be void, his crashing shouldn't protect him against Leclerc going faster in the same session.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:58 pm
by pokerman
My numbers in brackets:-

Sainz 0.022s (-0.122s)
Norris 0.413s (0.242s)
Verstappen 0.506s (0.504%)
Vettel 0.083s (0.135%)
Alonso 0.016% (0.019%)

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:35 pm
by Exediron
pokerman wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:20 pm
 I was surprised to see Sainz edging it when I had Leclerc clearly the winner, double checking our differences, you give Mexico to Sainz but Leclerc set the fastest lap in Q1, you give Portugal to Sainz but Leclerc set the fastest lap in Q2, Russia was wet but I guess you include wet sessions were I don't, finally in Hungary Sainz crashed in Q2 so didn't set a time so you just take Q1 times were Sainz was quicker thus ignoring Leclerc being quicker in Q2, surely at best for Sainz that should be void, his crashing shouldn't protect him against Leclerc going faster in the same session.
As I've explained before, at present in my formula I take both times from the final session where both drivers participated. I do not take a faster, earlier time from one driver if they fail to match it in a later session.

This is something of a style difference, and a tweak I will consider making for next season. But it's the way I've been doing it all year, so the final numbers should reflect the same methodology.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:09 pm
by pokerman
Exediron wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:35 pm
pokerman wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:20 pm
 I was surprised to see Sainz edging it when I had Leclerc clearly the winner, double checking our differences, you give Mexico to Sainz but Leclerc set the fastest lap in Q1, you give Portugal to Sainz but Leclerc set the fastest lap in Q2, Russia was wet but I guess you include wet sessions were I don't, finally in Hungary Sainz crashed in Q2 so didn't set a time so you just take Q1 times were Sainz was quicker thus ignoring Leclerc being quicker in Q2, surely at best for Sainz that should be void, his crashing shouldn't protect him against Leclerc going faster in the same session.
As I've explained before, at present in my formula I take both times from the final session where both drivers participated. I do not take a faster, earlier time from one driver if they fail to match it in a later session.

This is something of a style difference, and a tweak I will consider making for next season. But it's the way I've been doing it all year, so the final numbers should reflect the same methodology.
Fair enough I obviously forgot, horses for courses I guess, I prefer a hands on method rather than a pure mathematical system to come up with a result, so no wet qualifying that has no bearing on dry performance.

Further to that I would question a driver coming out on top after crashing with his teammate then setting a faster time, also a result not being void when it's known that the slower driver was competing with a damaged chassis seemingly going into qualifying.

Just by voiding that one session Leclerc then comes out on top.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:32 pm
by Exediron
pokerman wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:09 pm
Exediron wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:35 pm
pokerman wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:20 pm
 I was surprised to see Sainz edging it when I had Leclerc clearly the winner, double checking our differences, you give Mexico to Sainz but Leclerc set the fastest lap in Q1, you give Portugal to Sainz but Leclerc set the fastest lap in Q2, Russia was wet but I guess you include wet sessions were I don't, finally in Hungary Sainz crashed in Q2 so didn't set a time so you just take Q1 times were Sainz was quicker thus ignoring Leclerc being quicker in Q2, surely at best for Sainz that should be void, his crashing shouldn't protect him against Leclerc going faster in the same session.
As I've explained before, at present in my formula I take both times from the final session where both drivers participated. I do not take a faster, earlier time from one driver if they fail to match it in a later session.

This is something of a style difference, and a tweak I will consider making for next season. But it's the way I've been doing it all year, so the final numbers should reflect the same methodology.
Fair enough I obviously forgot, horses for courses I guess, I prefer a hands on method rather than a pure mathematical system to come up with a result, so no wet qualifying that has no bearing on dry performance.

Further to that I would question a driver coming out on top after crashing with his teammate then setting a faster time, also a result not being void when it's known that the slower driver was competing with a damaged chassis seemingly going into qualifying.

Just by voiding that one session Leclerc then comes out on top.
You're right about Qatar, and I actually forgot that when I was inputing numbers. That one ought to be void, since I do accept that Leclerc had a significantly damaged car in qualifying.

I'll make that tweak later...

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sun Dec 19, 2021 3:07 pm
by pokerman
Exediron wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:32 pm
pokerman wrote: ↑
Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:09 pm
Exediron wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:35 pm
pokerman wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:20 pm
 I was surprised to see Sainz edging it when I had Leclerc clearly the winner, double checking our differences, you give Mexico to Sainz but Leclerc set the fastest lap in Q1, you give Portugal to Sainz but Leclerc set the fastest lap in Q2, Russia was wet but I guess you include wet sessions were I don't, finally in Hungary Sainz crashed in Q2 so didn't set a time so you just take Q1 times were Sainz was quicker thus ignoring Leclerc being quicker in Q2, surely at best for Sainz that should be void, his crashing shouldn't protect him against Leclerc going faster in the same session.
As I've explained before, at present in my formula I take both times from the final session where both drivers participated. I do not take a faster, earlier time from one driver if they fail to match it in a later session.

This is something of a style difference, and a tweak I will consider making for next season. But it's the way I've been doing it all year, so the final numbers should reflect the same methodology.
Fair enough I obviously forgot, horses for courses I guess, I prefer a hands on method rather than a pure mathematical system to come up with a result, so no wet qualifying that has no bearing on dry performance.

Further to that I would question a driver coming out on top after crashing with his teammate then setting a faster time, also a result not being void when it's known that the slower driver was competing with a damaged chassis seemingly going into qualifying.

Just by voiding that one session Leclerc then comes out on top.
You're right about Qatar, and I actually forgot that when I was inputing numbers. That one ought to be void, since I do accept that Leclerc had a significantly damaged car in qualifying.

I'll make that tweak later...
Fair play then, I do take the view that you can't be hands off and basically leave it to a mathematical system that will sort things out in a kind of luck will even itself out manner.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:05 am
by pokerman
The final standings:-

Right here goes, looking at Leclerc there's not many data points for him, last year he was either excellent or Vettel was sub par, nevertheless at this moment in time I can only go with what happened so:-

Prediction: Leclerc > Sainz 0.47s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.22s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.2s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.15s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.12s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.13s
Leclerc > Sainz 0.1s

Sainz closed the gap over the season, the prediction is way out, I overrated Leclerc by 2 tenths based on his 2020 season against Vettel, and underestimated Sainz by 2 tenths based on his single season at Renault against the Hulk.


Onto the Max v Perez matchup plenty of data points here to make a more valid judgement with a bit of variance for Perez settling into his new team, so:-

Prediction: Max > Perez 0.31s - 0.36s
Max > Perez 0.34s
Max > Perez 0.35s
Max > Perez 0.37s
Max > Perez 0.43s
Max > Perez 0.4s
Max > Perez 0.4s

I'm quite happy with this prediction especially if we take into account how Max centric the car is and Perez sometimes being behind with the updates.


Next the Ricciardo/Norris matchup, we have very recent data for this again to make a solid predication, again a bit of variance for Ricciardo settling into his new team, so:-

Prediction: Ricciardo > Norris 0.21s - 0.26s.
Norris > Ricciardo 0.26s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.33s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.33s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.24s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.19s
Norris > Ricciardo 0.19s

Along with Sainz I underestimated Norris by 2 tenths going into the season so the prediction should have been close between the two drivers, Ricciardo obviously struggled with the car but did improve, interesting in the second half of the season the gap was just 0.06s so that points to next season being close between the two, still I would be giving the edge to Norris.


Moving onto Vettel and Stroll, if he wants to recover his reputation then really needs to improve on this prediction:-

Prediction: Vettel > Stroll 0.2s
Stroll > Vettel 0.02s
Vettel > Stroll 0.05s
Vettel > Stroll 0.07s
Vettel > Stroll 0.07s
Vettel > Stroll 0.1s
Vettel > Stroll 0.11s

With this prediction I didn't factor in Vettel struggling in the early part of the season, it seems that after 6 races Vettel gets up to speed consistently beating Stroll and beating him at an average of 0.19s very close to the prediction but even at that Vettel is only performing at Perez level.


Alonso against Ocon, can Alonso be back at his best, he needs to because even at his best I would be predicting this:-

Prediction: Alonso > Ocon 0.15s
Ocon > Alonso 0.31
Ocon > Alonso 0.23s
Ocon > Alonso 0.04s
Ocon > Alonso 0.02s
Alonso > Ocon 0.02s
Alonso > Ocon 0.02s

In a similar vein to Vettel we can see that it took Alonso 5 races to get up to speed something I didn't factor in the prediction, if we take the average after that we get Alonso ahead by 0.13s again very close to the prediction which also shows little deterioration in a 40 year old Alonso.


Next is something we can't really know, Gasly against Tsunoda, I see Gasly as being a little better than average while Tsunoda is talented and a fast learner, I think he can contain Gasly to no more than this prediction:-

Prediction: Gasly > Tsunoda 0.1s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.3s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.32s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.31s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.46s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.49s
Gasly > Tsunoda 0.42s

This was just a guess with zero data, I was really surprised to see Tsunoda struggle to get up to speed after how quickly he adapted to F2, however there was perhaps signs that he's finally cracking the puzzle with the last 3 races producing an average of 0.11s, maybe my prediction was a year early.


Finally two rookies Schumacher and Mazepin, both slow learners so who has impressed me more as juniors and that would be Schumacher, however I don't see Schumacher as being super fast so I predict:-

Prediction: Schumacher > Mazepin 0.1s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.54s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.45s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.4s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.42s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.41s
Schumacher > Mazepin 0.47s

Mazepin never improved throughout the season but he is known as a big second year improver, I do expect him to close the gap.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:40 am
by Exediron
pokerman wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:05 am
 Mazepin never improved throughout the season but he is known as a big second year improver, I do expect him to close the gap.
So is Mick, though. I expect both to take a step forward, but the question is whether it will be a step of similar proportions.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:07 pm
by pokerman
Exediron wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:40 am
pokerman wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:05 am
 Mazepin never improved throughout the season but he is known as a big second year improver, I do expect him to close the gap.
So is Mick, though. I expect both to take a step forward, but the question is whether it will be a step of similar proportions.
Which is why I thought it would be quite close this year, to my way of thinking unlike in F4, F3 and F2, in F1 Mick hit the ground running.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:27 pm
by mikeyg123
pokerman wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:07 pm
Exediron wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:40 am
pokerman wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:05 am
 Mazepin never improved throughout the season but he is known as a big second year improver, I do expect him to close the gap.
So is Mick, though. I expect both to take a step forward, but the question is whether it will be a step of similar proportions.
Which is why I thought it would be quite close this year, to my way of thinking unlike in F4, F3 and F2, in F1 Mick hit the ground running.
Mick has always been far better in his debut seasons than Mazepin.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:01 pm
by pokerman
mikeyg123 wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:27 pm
pokerman wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:07 pm
Exediron wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 2:40 am
pokerman wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:05 am
 Mazepin never improved throughout the season but he is known as a big second year improver, I do expect him to close the gap.
So is Mick, though. I expect both to take a step forward, but the question is whether it will be a step of similar proportions.
Which is why I thought it would be quite close this year, to my way of thinking unlike in F4, F3 and F2, in F1 Mick hit the ground running.
Mick has always been far better in his debut seasons than Mazepin.
He drove in F4 which is a lower level than Renault2.0 which Mazepin competed in, in F3 he drove for the very best team unlike Mazepin, then when Mazepin actually drove for the best team in GP3 he finished second as a rookie.

So the always been better in his debut season only really refers to F2 and then both improved similarly in their second seasons, Schumacher still being the better driver.

No in respect to F1 I'm taking the view that Schumacher got up to speed much quicker than the junior series and Mazepin being the same needing loads of time to adjust Mazepin, and he will improve more in his second season than Schumacher, however Schumacher will still have the beating of him, we will see.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:45 pm
by Exediron
mikeyg123 wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:27 pm
 Mick has always been far better in his debut seasons than Mazepin.
As far as I can tell, he's always been better in his second season as well. I think he's probably just a better driver, although I wouldn't have expected him to be better by anything like the gap we saw this season in F1.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:48 pm
by Paolo_Lasardi
I am not surprised by the gap. Schumacher is a good and competent F1 driver whereas Mazepin should be nowhere near to a F1 car.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:05 pm
by Exediron
Paolo_Lasardi wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:48 pm
 I am not surprised by the gap. Schumacher is a good and competent F1 driver whereas Mazepin should be nowhere near to a F1 car.
Right, that's how it looked at Haas this year. But nothing in Mazepin's career suggested he was that far off Mick. If anything, they both looked like fairly mediocre drivers in their first season in F2, whereas in his first season in F1 Mazepin just looked utterly out of his depth.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2021 4:17 pm
by pokerman
Mark Hughes has his version, he throws out even more data than I do.

https://the-race.com/formula-1/mark-hug ... ualifying/

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2021 4:23 pm
by pokerman
Exediron's version, my numbers in brackets, then Mark Hughes:-

Sainz 0.022s (-0.122s) -0.106%
Norris 0.413s (0.242s) 0.274%
Verstappen 0.506s (0.504%) 0.479%
Vettel 0.083s (0.135%) 0.115%
Alonso 0.016% (0.019%) -0.023%

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2021 4:40 pm
by mikeyg123
Paolo_Lasardi wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:48 pm
 I am not surprised by the gap. Schumacher is a good and competent F1 driver whereas Mazepin should be nowhere near to a F1 car.
I think the extent of the gap is surprising. You'd expect Mazepin to be somewhat similar to Latifi. Perhaps the lack of speed from Mazepin and the quantity of crashes from Schumacher just shows how unbalanced the Haas car was.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Fri Dec 31, 2021 4:47 pm
by pokerman
mikeyg123 wrote: ↑
Fri Dec 31, 2021 4:40 pm
Paolo_Lasardi wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:48 pm
 I am not surprised by the gap. Schumacher is a good and competent F1 driver whereas Mazepin should be nowhere near to a F1 car.
I think the extent of the gap is surprising. You'd expect Mazepin to be somewhat similar to Latifi. Perhaps the lack of speed from Mazepin and the quantity of crashes from Schumacher just shows how unbalanced the Haas car was.
Maybe he was when Latifi debuted and Schumacher is that good?

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:07 am
by F1Tyrant
Exediron wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:09 am
 Up next, I plan to compile a relative speed ranking of the grid, as indicated by 2021 season data and the most reliable comparison chains I can assemble.
How is your progress on this going? I'm very excited to see the result!

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:44 am
by Exediron
F1Tyrant wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:07 am
Exediron wrote: ↑
Thu Dec 16, 2021 8:09 am
 Up next, I plan to compile a relative speed ranking of the grid, as indicated by 2021 season data and the most reliable comparison chains I can assemble.
How is your progress on this going? I'm very excited to see the result!
It's going! :lol:

The trick is that the numbers don't align without some help. I've created a few different lists using different reference variables (one teammate pairing that I simply decide is correct for the sake of the calculation, such as Ricciardo vs Norris or Sainz vs Leclerc), and I'm at the stage of trying to decide which one to use or potentially how to combine them elegantly to produce some ranges.

The other trick is that I want the ranking to reflect relative speed now, not at some previous point -- which is a problem, when some of the cross comparison data is quite old (Ricciardo / Vettel from 2014 and Perez / Button from 2013 being two examples that are important).

The biggest problem I'm having right now is how to control for the formula overrating Norris, which is something of a judgment call. All of my results have Norris, Sainz, Leclerc, and Verstappen as the top four in some order, but in several iterations the gaps between the four are not plausible (Verstappen over two tenths behind Norris, for example).

I think I may have to prune the data a little bit, perhaps giving greater weight to the second half of the season for pairings where one driver was new to the team. For both Ricciardo and Alonso, eliminating the early part of the season will bring them more into line with where I expect them to be.

TL:DR -- I'm working on it, but it needs polish before I release the results into the wild.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:00 pm
by IDFD
Aren't you then just manipulating the data to give the answer you want as oppose to the actual initial point of why you started this?

For example if the data showed Verstappen to be faster you wouldn't then want to be finding ways to amend it?

To exclude the first half of the season is just ignoring Norris excellent form to suit a narrative you're then creating?

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:03 pm
by JN23
IDFD wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:00 pm
 Aren't you then just manipulating the data to give the answer you want as oppose to the actual initial point of why you started this?

For example if the data showed Verstappen to be faster you wouldn't then want to be finding ways to amend it?

To exclude the first half of the season is just ignoring Norris excellent form to suit a narrative you're then creating?
On your last point - was Norris’ form in the first half of the season excellent or did it just look excellent because Ricciardo was all at sea? It’s possible that Norris performed consistently across the season and the difference in his first and second half of the season is actually how Ricciardo performed relatively.

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:09 pm
by pokerman
IDFD wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:00 pm
 Aren't you then just manipulating the data to give the answer you want as oppose to the actual initial point of why you started this?

For example if the data showed Verstappen to be faster you wouldn't then want to be finding ways to amend it?

To exclude the first half of the season is just ignoring Norris excellent form to suit a narrative you're then creating?
Who it this post aimed at?

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Posted: Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:09 pm
by IDFD
JN23 wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:03 pm
IDFD wrote: ↑
Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:00 pm
 Aren't you then just manipulating the data to give the answer you want as oppose to the actual initial point of why you started this?

For example if the data showed Verstappen to be faster you wouldn't then want to be finding ways to amend it?

To exclude the first half of the season is just ignoring Norris excellent form to suit a narrative you're then creating?
On your last point - was Norris’ form in the first half of the season excellent or did it just look excellent because Ricciardo was all at sea? It’s possible that Norris performed consistently across the season and the difference in his first and second half of the season is actually how Ricciardo performed relatively.
Well it looked excellent because McLaren had a much better car first half of the season.

However even second half of the season Norris was still clearly the better driver. He was hampered by bad luck and a few errors (Spa and Russia could be put down as both) but the speed was still there.

Do we think Riciardo always performed at the exact same levels Vs Max and didn't have any dips or peaks in form and shouldn't we look at those to disregard them then?

If you start picking and choosing which data points you're using to suit a narrative then you're just trying to bend your own arguments and not use the figures you have available.

I can understand disregarding wet races and massive disparities but to disregard an entire half a season because it doesn't suit what you want it to say doesn't appear to make sense to me.
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