The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

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Exediron
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:39 pm
You're clearly looking to be selective in how you've done that, the results are clearly:-

1. Schumacher
2. Leclerc
3. Verstappen
4. Hamilton
5/6. Alonso = Ricciardo
In point of fact, taking the numbers I've generated in this thread together with KingVoid's estimate of Schumacher (accepting that one at face value), we get overlapping ranges with different possibilities at #1.

Leclerc and Schumacher both have a significant range of variation in these numbers (0.060 for Schumacher, and a much larger 0.156 for Leclerc), and overlap depending on what part of the range you take. With the minimum gap from Schumacher, he is potentially behind both Leclerc and Verstappen. Even taking his maximum gap, Leclerc is still #1 if you take 2020 as a representative year for Vettel.

Hamilton also has a range for the Button comparison, since he has one season against Button that I consider unrepresentative (2011). If you throw that one out, he tightens up dramatically behind the leading three, and gaps clear of Ricciardo.

In outright pace, Alonso is clearly at the back of these six (albeit not by a huge margin, this is all within about 2 tenths of a second) by the numbers.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by KingVoid »

I refuse to disregard Hamilton’s 2011 in the same way that I disregard Verstappen’s 2016 because those two situations are not even remotely comparable.

Verstappen 2016 was 18 years of age in his second season of F1 and switched teams during the season.

Hamilton was of prime age in 2011 and in his 5th season in the sport, there are zero excuses.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:01 am
pokerman wrote:
Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:39 pm
You're clearly looking to be selective in how you've done that, the results are clearly:-

1. Schumacher
2. Leclerc
3. Verstappen
4. Hamilton
5/6. Alonso = Ricciardo
In point of fact, taking the numbers I've generated in this thread together with KingVoid's estimate of Schumacher (accepting that one at face value), we get overlapping ranges with different possibilities at #1.

Leclerc and Schumacher both have a significant range of variation in these numbers (0.060 for Schumacher, and a much larger 0.156 for Leclerc), and overlap depending on what part of the range you take. With the minimum gap from Schumacher, he is potentially behind both Leclerc and Verstappen. Even taking his maximum gap, Leclerc is still #1 if you take 2020 as a representative year for Vettel.

Hamilton also has a range for the Button comparison, since he has one season against Button that I consider unrepresentative (2011). If you throw that one out, he tightens up dramatically behind the leading three, and gaps clear of Ricciardo.

In outright pace, Alonso is clearly at the back of these six (albeit not by a huge margin, this is all within about 2 tenths of a second) by the numbers.
Yeah I was going to come back to the post I made, in isolation last season would put Leclerc top of the list.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:35 am
I refuse to disregard Hamilton’s 2011 in the same way that I disregard Verstappen’s 2016 because those two situations are not even remotely comparable.

Verstappen 2016 was 18 years of age in his second season of F1 and switched teams during the season.

Hamilton was of prime age in 2011 and in his 5th season in the sport, there are zero excuses.
I don't understand why Hamilton's 2011 season is seen as bad, in qualifying he took car of business as usual against Button, his average didn't drop below 0.2s.

I have to ask why you look to include Leclerc's first season at Ferrari but not Ricciardo's first season at Renault?
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by KingVoid »

pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:04 am
I have to ask why you look to include Leclerc's first season at Ferrari but not Ricciardo's first season at Renault?
My gaps are as follows:

Ricciardo > Hulkenberg by 0.102%
Ricciardo > Ocon by 0.233%
Ocon > Perez by 0.031%
Hulkenberg > Perez by 0.085%

Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.124% (2017 and 2018)
Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.204% (2018 only)
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.254% (2019 and 2020)
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.426% (2020 only)

Hamilton > Button by 0.270%
Hamilton > Bottas by 0.181%

Now this is the juicy bit:

Bottas > Massa by 0.164%
Vettel > Raikkonen by 0.234%
Massa > Raikkonen by 0.060%
Perez > Button by 0.003%
Ricciardo > Vettel by 0.213%

Now you can connect the dots as you wish.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by KingVoid »

Exediron wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:01 am
pokerman wrote:
Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:39 pm
You're clearly looking to be selective in how you've done that, the results are clearly:-

1. Schumacher
2. Leclerc
3. Verstappen
4. Hamilton
5/6. Alonso = Ricciardo
In point of fact, taking the numbers I've generated in this thread together with KingVoid's estimate of Schumacher (accepting that one at face value), we get overlapping ranges with different possibilities at #1.

Leclerc and Schumacher both have a significant range of variation in these numbers (0.060 for Schumacher, and a much larger 0.156 for Leclerc), and overlap depending on what part of the range you take. With the minimum gap from Schumacher, he is potentially behind both Leclerc and Verstappen. Even taking his maximum gap, Leclerc is still #1 if you take 2020 as a representative year for Vettel.

Hamilton also has a range for the Button comparison, since he has one season against Button that I consider unrepresentative (2011). If you throw that one out, he tightens up dramatically behind the leading three, and gaps clear of Ricciardo.

In outright pace, Alonso is clearly at the back of these six (albeit not by a huge margin, this is all within about 2 tenths of a second) by the numbers.
@Exediron
since I know you are a big fan of Leclerc, I thought you would enjoy this article ;)

'Friendly assassin' Carlos Sainz targets title despite Ferrari support role

“But to do that he will need to compete on level terms with one of the fastest drivers F1 has ever seen in Leclerc, whose qualifying performances last year in the difficult SF1000 sometimes bordered on miraculous. His Q3 laps at Silverstone, Portimao and Mugello, in particular, put the red car several rows higher than it deserved. Watching Leclerc on-boards is invariably a thrilling ride; his margins are almost non-existent and he seems unfazed by the sort of corner entry instability the car displayed for the first two-thirds of last season. His talent and attacking style are perfectly configured to drag miracles out of a less than great car, in much the same way as was the case with that other great Ferrari talisman, Gilles Villeneuve. Even if, like with Gilles, pushing so close to the edge in a difficult car can mean occasional scrapes and errors.“

https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/arti ... pport-role

Mark Hughes calls Leclerc one of the fastest drivers in the history of F1, big praise for a driver who has still only competed in 3 seasons.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Invade »

Just look at the desperation of many F1 fans (perhaps mostly Vettel fans, not sure) to explain and excuse away the absolute mauling Leclerc handed Vettel in qualifying in 2020. The beating was so severe that many people couldn't really accept it was legit.

But maybe Leclerc is just a very special kinda cat...

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Exediron »

KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:35 am
I refuse to disregard Hamilton’s 2011 in the same way that I disregard Verstappen’s 2016 because those two situations are not even remotely comparable.
That's fair, and I don't discount 2011 entirely the same way I discount 2016 entirely for Verstappen. I simply prefer to represent Hamilton's pace relative to Button as a range, since 2011 is fairly anomalous.
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:04 am
I don't understand why Hamilton's 2011 season is seen as bad, in qualifying he took car of business as usual against Button, his average didn't drop below 0.2s.
Removing 2011 from the data set increases Hamilton's average gap to Button by over a tenth of a percent, or an increase of 30%. He was still clearly quicker than Button, but by a notably smaller margin than in either 2010 or 2012.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Exediron »

KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:41 am
Mark Hughes calls Leclerc one of the fastest drivers in the history of F1, big praise for a driver who has still only competed in 3 seasons.
I've thought Charles was special since at least his F2 season, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he turns out to be a contender for GOAT.

I personally believe that what we're seeing with Vettel is the real gap, or something quite close to it. A driver is always expected to improve in his third year, and getting more familiar in the team as well is a factor. If the comparison suggested something really ridiculous I might be inclined to doubt it, but a suggestion that Leclerc is roughly as fast as Max is something I find quite plausible.

... which makes it all the more frustrating that they're both stuck without a chance to challenge for the title. I hope we get a chance to see the two of them fighting for a championship in competitive cars soon!
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Invade »

I think that on his day, Leclerc wins. That when he puts it together his lap is most likely to be the best lap. Naturally, this is just an impression.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by KingVoid »

Exediron wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:30 am
... which makes it all the more frustrating that they're both stuck without a chance to challenge for the title. I hope we get a chance to see the two of them fighting for a championship in competitive cars soon!
The absolute worst possible scenario in my eyes, would be if one of them ends up in a dominant team while the other is stuck in mediocre machinery. In other words, another Hamilton-Alonso situation.

The only thing worse than the 2014-2021 era would be a repeat of another era just as uncompetitive as that one.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

Exediron wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:30 am
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:41 am
Mark Hughes calls Leclerc one of the fastest drivers in the history of F1, big praise for a driver who has still only competed in 3 seasons.
I've thought Charles was special since at least his F2 season, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he turns out to be a contender for GOAT.

I personally believe that what we're seeing with Vettel is the real gap, or something quite close to it. A driver is always expected to improve in his third year, and getting more familiar in the team as well is a factor. If the comparison suggested something really ridiculous I might be inclined to doubt it, but a suggestion that Leclerc is roughly as fast as Max is something I find quite plausible.

... which makes it all the more frustrating that they're both stuck without a chance to challenge for the title. I hope we get a chance to see the two of them fighting for a championship in competitive cars soon!
:thumbup:

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:32 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:04 am
I have to ask why you look to include Leclerc's first season at Ferrari but not Ricciardo's first season at Renault?
My gaps are as follows:

Ricciardo > Hulkenberg by 0.102%
Ricciardo > Ocon by 0.233%
Ocon > Perez by 0.031%
Hulkenberg > Perez by 0.085%

Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.124% (2017 and 2018)
Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.204% (2018 only)
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.254% (2019 and 2020)
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.426% (2020 only)

Hamilton > Button by 0.270%
Hamilton > Bottas by 0.181%

Now this is the juicy bit:

Bottas > Massa by 0.164%
Vettel > Raikkonen by 0.234%
Massa > Raikkonen by 0.060%
Perez > Button by 0.003%
Ricciardo > Vettel by 0.213%

Now you can connect the dots as you wish.
Verstappen's first season at Red Bull was in 2016 which was also his second season in F1 which you don't include and me neither for an obvious reason and that is the clear improvement we see in Verstappen the year after.

However Leclerc's first season at Ferrari his second in F1 you do include despite the obvious improvement in Leclerc the year after, this is an inconsistency and an obvious weighting of the dice in favour of the driver you look to support, Verstappen.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:41 am
Exediron wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:01 am
pokerman wrote:
Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:39 pm
You're clearly looking to be selective in how you've done that, the results are clearly:-

1. Schumacher
2. Leclerc
3. Verstappen
4. Hamilton
5/6. Alonso = Ricciardo
In point of fact, taking the numbers I've generated in this thread together with KingVoid's estimate of Schumacher (accepting that one at face value), we get overlapping ranges with different possibilities at #1.

Leclerc and Schumacher both have a significant range of variation in these numbers (0.060 for Schumacher, and a much larger 0.156 for Leclerc), and overlap depending on what part of the range you take. With the minimum gap from Schumacher, he is potentially behind both Leclerc and Verstappen. Even taking his maximum gap, Leclerc is still #1 if you take 2020 as a representative year for Vettel.

Hamilton also has a range for the Button comparison, since he has one season against Button that I consider unrepresentative (2011). If you throw that one out, he tightens up dramatically behind the leading three, and gaps clear of Ricciardo.

In outright pace, Alonso is clearly at the back of these six (albeit not by a huge margin, this is all within about 2 tenths of a second) by the numbers.
@Exediron
since I know you are a big fan of Leclerc, I thought you would enjoy this article ;)

'Friendly assassin' Carlos Sainz targets title despite Ferrari support role

“But to do that he will need to compete on level terms with one of the fastest drivers F1 has ever seen in Leclerc, whose qualifying performances last year in the difficult SF1000 sometimes bordered on miraculous. His Q3 laps at Silverstone, Portimao and Mugello, in particular, put the red car several rows higher than it deserved. Watching Leclerc on-boards is invariably a thrilling ride; his margins are almost non-existent and he seems unfazed by the sort of corner entry instability the car displayed for the first two-thirds of last season. His talent and attacking style are perfectly configured to drag miracles out of a less than great car, in much the same way as was the case with that other great Ferrari talisman, Gilles Villeneuve. Even if, like with Gilles, pushing so close to the edge in a difficult car can mean occasional scrapes and errors.“

https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/arti ... pport-role

Mark Hughes calls Leclerc one of the fastest drivers in the history of F1, big praise for a driver who has still only competed in 3 seasons.
I guess that Hughes also understands what the numbers suggest.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:30 am
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:41 am
Mark Hughes calls Leclerc one of the fastest drivers in the history of F1, big praise for a driver who has still only competed in 3 seasons.
I've thought Charles was special since at least his F2 season, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he turns out to be a contender for GOAT.

I personally believe that what we're seeing with Vettel is the real gap, or something quite close to it. A driver is always expected to improve in his third year, and getting more familiar in the team as well is a factor. If the comparison suggested something really ridiculous I might be inclined to doubt it, but a suggestion that Leclerc is roughly as fast as Max is something I find quite plausible.

... which makes it all the more frustrating that they're both stuck without a chance to challenge for the title. I hope we get a chance to see the two of them fighting for a championship in competitive cars soon!
Just looking to one up you, I talent spotted Leclerc 2 years previous to that when he was racing in European F3 but I guess I wasn't the only one, that's the year he got signed up by Ferrari.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Paolo_Lasardi »

A question out of curiosity regarding the older numbers: how do you deal with times when qualifying was with race fuel?

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:51 am
Exediron wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:30 am
... which makes it all the more frustrating that they're both stuck without a chance to challenge for the title. I hope we get a chance to see the two of them fighting for a championship in competitive cars soon!
The absolute worst possible scenario in my eyes, would be if one of them ends up in a dominant team while the other is stuck in mediocre machinery. In other words, another Hamilton-Alonso situation.

The only thing worse than the 2014-2021 era would be a repeat of another era just as uncompetitive as that one.
Well Alonso put himself in that position, that's less likely to happen with either Verstappen or Leclerc especially if they established themselves as the 2 best drivers in the sport they will always find a seat in a top team, we might say that they already have. F1 is changing with budget caps and development handicaps for the more successful teams, I would say that the future looks bright for both of them.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by KingVoid »

pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:21 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:32 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:04 am
I have to ask why you look to include Leclerc's first season at Ferrari but not Ricciardo's first season at Renault?
My gaps are as follows:

Ricciardo > Hulkenberg by 0.102%
Ricciardo > Ocon by 0.233%
Ocon > Perez by 0.031%
Hulkenberg > Perez by 0.085%

Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.124% (2017 and 2018)
Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.204% (2018 only)
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.254% (2019 and 2020)
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.426% (2020 only)

Hamilton > Button by 0.270%
Hamilton > Bottas by 0.181%

Now this is the juicy bit:

Bottas > Massa by 0.164%
Vettel > Raikkonen by 0.234%
Massa > Raikkonen by 0.060%
Perez > Button by 0.003%
Ricciardo > Vettel by 0.213%

Now you can connect the dots as you wish.
Verstappen's first season at Red Bull was in 2016 which was also his second season in F1 which you don't include and me neither for an obvious reason and that is the clear improvement we see in Verstappen the year after.

However Leclerc's first season at Ferrari his second in F1 you do include despite the obvious improvement in Leclerc the year after, this is an inconsistency and an obvious weighting of the dice in favour of the driver you look to support, Verstappen.
Age is just as important as experience.

Verstappen basically skipped junior categories altogether, so that’s why I have given him a free pass for his first two seasons.

Verstappen and Leclerc are the exact same age, and Leclerc was still in GP3 in 2016, allowed to make mistakes with very few people watching. Verstappen had millions of eyes on him.

Why is the concept of age beyond you?

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

And TBF drivers jumping into a different team midseason rarely out in a representative performance.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by KingVoid »

pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:35 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:51 am
Exediron wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:30 am
... which makes it all the more frustrating that they're both stuck without a chance to challenge for the title. I hope we get a chance to see the two of them fighting for a championship in competitive cars soon!
The absolute worst possible scenario in my eyes, would be if one of them ends up in a dominant team while the other is stuck in mediocre machinery. In other words, another Hamilton-Alonso situation.

The only thing worse than the 2014-2021 era would be a repeat of another era just as uncompetitive as that one.
Well Alonso put himself in that position, that's less likely to happen with either Verstappen or Leclerc especially if they established themselves as the 2 best drivers in the sport they will always find a seat in a top team, we might say that they already have. F1 is changing with budget caps and development handicaps for the more successful teams, I would say that the future looks bright for both of them.
The idea that the best drivers end up in the best cars (which is what you are trying to push here), is one of the most easily disprovable myths in F1.

It simply isn’t true.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by KingVoid »

Hypothetically speaking, let’s only use 2020 for Leclerc vs Vettel and only use 2018 for Verstappen vs Ricciardo because they were both still young drivers and constantly improving

Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.204%
Ricciardo > Vettel by 0.224%
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.426%

You end up with: Verstappen > Leclerc by 0.002%

That is well within the margin of error and suggests that Verstappen vs Leclerc would be a very equal contest.

Hamilton > Bottas by 0.181%
Bottas > Massa by 0.164%
Massa > Raikkonen by 0.060%
Vettel > Raikkonen by 0.234%

Therefore Hamilton > Vettel by 0.171%

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:36 pm
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:21 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:32 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:04 am
I have to ask why you look to include Leclerc's first season at Ferrari but not Ricciardo's first season at Renault?
My gaps are as follows:

Ricciardo > Hulkenberg by 0.102%
Ricciardo > Ocon by 0.233%
Ocon > Perez by 0.031%
Hulkenberg > Perez by 0.085%

Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.124% (2017 and 2018)
Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.204% (2018 only)
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.254% (2019 and 2020)
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.426% (2020 only)

Hamilton > Button by 0.270%
Hamilton > Bottas by 0.181%

Now this is the juicy bit:

Bottas > Massa by 0.164%
Vettel > Raikkonen by 0.234%
Massa > Raikkonen by 0.060%
Perez > Button by 0.003%
Ricciardo > Vettel by 0.213%

Now you can connect the dots as you wish.
Verstappen's first season at Red Bull was in 2016 which was also his second season in F1 which you don't include and me neither for an obvious reason and that is the clear improvement we see in Verstappen the year after.

However Leclerc's first season at Ferrari his second in F1 you do include despite the obvious improvement in Leclerc the year after, this is an inconsistency and an obvious weighting of the dice in favour of the driver you look to support, Verstappen.
Age is just as important as experience.

Verstappen basically skipped junior categories altogether, so that’s why I have given him a free pass for his first two seasons.

Verstappen and Leclerc are the exact same age, and Leclerc was still in GP3 in 2016, allowed to make mistakes with very few people watching. Verstappen had millions of eyes on him.

Why is the concept of age beyond you?
We didn't see a big step if any with Verstappen from 2017 and 2018 but certainly we did with Leclerc from 2019 to 2020, you can't make comparison if you lack consistency.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:41 pm
And TBF drivers jumping into a different team midseason rarely out in a representative performance.
One reason why that season is dismissed, that's not the argument.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:50 pm
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:35 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:51 am
Exediron wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:30 am
... which makes it all the more frustrating that they're both stuck without a chance to challenge for the title. I hope we get a chance to see the two of them fighting for a championship in competitive cars soon!
The absolute worst possible scenario in my eyes, would be if one of them ends up in a dominant team while the other is stuck in mediocre machinery. In other words, another Hamilton-Alonso situation.

The only thing worse than the 2014-2021 era would be a repeat of another era just as uncompetitive as that one.
Well Alonso put himself in that position, that's less likely to happen with either Verstappen or Leclerc especially if they established themselves as the 2 best drivers in the sport they will always find a seat in a top team, we might say that they already have. F1 is changing with budget caps and development handicaps for the more successful teams, I would say that the future looks bright for both of them.
The idea that the best drivers end up in the best cars (which is what you are trying to push here), is one of the most easily disprovable myths in F1.

It simply isn’t true.
Disprove it then.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:08 pm
Hypothetically speaking, let’s only use 2020 for Leclerc vs Vettel and only use 2018 for Verstappen vs Ricciardo because they were both still young drivers and constantly improving

Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.204%
Ricciardo > Vettel by 0.224%
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.426%

You end up with: Verstappen > Leclerc by 0.002%

That is well within the margin of error and suggests that Verstappen vs Leclerc would be a very equal contest.

Hamilton > Bottas by 0.181%
Bottas > Massa by 0.164%
Massa > Raikkonen by 0.060%
Vettel > Raikkonen by 0.234%

Therefore Hamilton > Vettel by 0.171%
Your methodology seems quite sound for me to not want to nit pick the numbers, ultimately though I don't see why data should be excluded that's quite close to data that has been used, we can't expect every year to be identical.

Now just going by what you have posted you can't then determine that Verstappen is faster than Leclerc which you did before and now it seems you've backed off from that.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by KingVoid »

pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:23 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:36 pm
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:21 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:32 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 2:04 am
I have to ask why you look to include Leclerc's first season at Ferrari but not Ricciardo's first season at Renault?
My gaps are as follows:

Ricciardo > Hulkenberg by 0.102%
Ricciardo > Ocon by 0.233%
Ocon > Perez by 0.031%
Hulkenberg > Perez by 0.085%

Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.124% (2017 and 2018)
Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.204% (2018 only)
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.254% (2019 and 2020)
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.426% (2020 only)

Hamilton > Button by 0.270%
Hamilton > Bottas by 0.181%

Now this is the juicy bit:

Bottas > Massa by 0.164%
Vettel > Raikkonen by 0.234%
Massa > Raikkonen by 0.060%
Perez > Button by 0.003%
Ricciardo > Vettel by 0.213%

Now you can connect the dots as you wish.
Verstappen's first season at Red Bull was in 2016 which was also his second season in F1 which you don't include and me neither for an obvious reason and that is the clear improvement we see in Verstappen the year after.

However Leclerc's first season at Ferrari his second in F1 you do include despite the obvious improvement in Leclerc the year after, this is an inconsistency and an obvious weighting of the dice in favour of the driver you look to support, Verstappen.
Age is just as important as experience.

Verstappen basically skipped junior categories altogether, so that’s why I have given him a free pass for his first two seasons.

Verstappen and Leclerc are the exact same age, and Leclerc was still in GP3 in 2016, allowed to make mistakes with very few people watching. Verstappen had millions of eyes on him.

Why is the concept of age beyond you?
We didn't see a big step if any with Verstappen from 2017 and 2018 but certainly we did with Leclerc from 2019 to 2020, you can't make comparison if you lack consistency.
How is 0.044% to 0.204% not a substantial step.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by KingVoid »

pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:25 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:50 pm
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:35 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:51 am
Exediron wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:30 am
... which makes it all the more frustrating that they're both stuck without a chance to challenge for the title. I hope we get a chance to see the two of them fighting for a championship in competitive cars soon!
The absolute worst possible scenario in my eyes, would be if one of them ends up in a dominant team while the other is stuck in mediocre machinery. In other words, another Hamilton-Alonso situation.

The only thing worse than the 2014-2021 era would be a repeat of another era just as uncompetitive as that one.
Well Alonso put himself in that position, that's less likely to happen with either Verstappen or Leclerc especially if they established themselves as the 2 best drivers in the sport they will always find a seat in a top team, we might say that they already have. F1 is changing with budget caps and development handicaps for the more successful teams, I would say that the future looks bright for both of them.
The idea that the best drivers end up in the best cars (which is what you are trying to push here), is one of the most easily disprovable myths in F1.

It simply isn’t true.
Disprove it then.
Easy

Exhibit A: Alonso
Exhibit B: Webber and Bottas

Disproven

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Exediron »

It's fairly easy to demonstrate that the best drivers do not always get into the best cars.

However, I would agree that the best drivers will find a seat with a 'top team', which was pokerman's original claim. Top teams don't always produce a top car, but I can't think of a clear example of an F1 driver who was shut out of a top team except by his own choice (Ricciardo leaving Red Bull willingly, for example, or Alonso leaving Ferrari).

If you still consider Vettel a top driver in 2021, I suppose he might be a recent example.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:02 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:23 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:36 pm
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:21 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 4:32 am

My gaps are as follows:

Ricciardo > Hulkenberg by 0.102%
Ricciardo > Ocon by 0.233%
Ocon > Perez by 0.031%
Hulkenberg > Perez by 0.085%

Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.124% (2017 and 2018)
Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.204% (2018 only)
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.254% (2019 and 2020)
Leclerc > Vettel by 0.426% (2020 only)

Hamilton > Button by 0.270%
Hamilton > Bottas by 0.181%

Now this is the juicy bit:

Bottas > Massa by 0.164%
Vettel > Raikkonen by 0.234%
Massa > Raikkonen by 0.060%
Perez > Button by 0.003%
Ricciardo > Vettel by 0.213%

Now you can connect the dots as you wish.
Verstappen's first season at Red Bull was in 2016 which was also his second season in F1 which you don't include and me neither for an obvious reason and that is the clear improvement we see in Verstappen the year after.

However Leclerc's first season at Ferrari his second in F1 you do include despite the obvious improvement in Leclerc the year after, this is an inconsistency and an obvious weighting of the dice in favour of the driver you look to support, Verstappen.
Age is just as important as experience.

Verstappen basically skipped junior categories altogether, so that’s why I have given him a free pass for his first two seasons.

Verstappen and Leclerc are the exact same age, and Leclerc was still in GP3 in 2016, allowed to make mistakes with very few people watching. Verstappen had millions of eyes on him.

Why is the concept of age beyond you?
We didn't see a big step if any with Verstappen from 2017 and 2018 but certainly we did with Leclerc from 2019 to 2020, you can't make comparison if you lack consistency.
How is 0.044% to 0.204% not a substantial step.
I never cottoned on that you had the 2017 Max/Ricciairdo number as being so low, my numbers are very similar between 2017 and 2018, given that I now understand why you would want to ignore 2017 and understandable at that.

Your Ricciardo/Vettel number looks a bit suspicious as it got changed by 0.011s, in your latest comparisons only allowing for Ricciardo's and Vettel's final seasons at Red Bull and Ferrari originally you have would have had:-

Leclerc > Verstappen 0.009s

But now you have:-

Verstappen > Leclerc 0.002s
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:03 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:25 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:50 pm
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:35 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 6:51 am

The absolute worst possible scenario in my eyes, would be if one of them ends up in a dominant team while the other is stuck in mediocre machinery. In other words, another Hamilton-Alonso situation.

The only thing worse than the 2014-2021 era would be a repeat of another era just as uncompetitive as that one.
Well Alonso put himself in that position, that's less likely to happen with either Verstappen or Leclerc especially if they established themselves as the 2 best drivers in the sport they will always find a seat in a top team, we might say that they already have. F1 is changing with budget caps and development handicaps for the more successful teams, I would say that the future looks bright for both of them.
The idea that the best drivers end up in the best cars (which is what you are trying to push here), is one of the most easily disprovable myths in F1.

It simply isn’t true.
Disprove it then.
Easy

Exhibit A: Alonso
Exhibit B: Webber and Bottas

Disproven
Alonso found his way into a top car 3 times but then also walked out 3 times, that's on him.

Regarding Webber and Bottas I'm sure both manged to get a top 6 ranking during their tenures in a top team, I think it's a bit naïve to think that top teams will allow certain driver combinations, do you think we will ever see Verstappen and Leclerc together at the same team?

If you look at what we might considered to be the top drivers on this years grid, Hamilton twice, Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo, Vettel twice, Alonso 3 times, all managed to find their way into top teams, Ricciardo another driver that walked out, Vettel basically got sacked.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

pokerman wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:22 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:03 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:25 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:50 pm
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:35 pm

Well Alonso put himself in that position, that's less likely to happen with either Verstappen or Leclerc especially if they established themselves as the 2 best drivers in the sport they will always find a seat in a top team, we might say that they already have. F1 is changing with budget caps and development handicaps for the more successful teams, I would say that the future looks bright for both of them.
The idea that the best drivers end up in the best cars (which is what you are trying to push here), is one of the most easily disprovable myths in F1.

It simply isn’t true.
Disprove it then.
Easy

Exhibit A: Alonso
Exhibit B: Webber and Bottas

Disproven
Alonso found his way into a top car 3 times but then also walked out 3 times, that's on him.

Regarding Webber and Bottas I'm sure both manged to get a top 6 ranking during their tenures in a top team, I think it's a bit naïve to think that top teams will allow certain driver combinations, do you think we will ever see Verstappen and Leclerc together at the same team?

If you look at what we might considered to be the top drivers on this years grid, Hamilton twice, Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo, Vettel twice, Alonso 3 times, all managed to find their way into top teams, Ricciardo another driver that walked out, Vettel basically got sacked.
Surely in the context of what you are discussing "top team" is totally irrelevant and the only thing that matters is championship contending team?

Something that Ricciardo, Verstappen and Leclerc have never had the privilege of.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by pokerman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:01 pm
pokerman wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:22 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:03 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:25 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:50 pm

The idea that the best drivers end up in the best cars (which is what you are trying to push here), is one of the most easily disprovable myths in F1.

It simply isn’t true.
Disprove it then.
Easy

Exhibit A: Alonso
Exhibit B: Webber and Bottas

Disproven
Alonso found his way into a top car 3 times but then also walked out 3 times, that's on him.

Regarding Webber and Bottas I'm sure both manged to get a top 6 ranking during their tenures in a top team, I think it's a bit naïve to think that top teams will allow certain driver combinations, do you think we will ever see Verstappen and Leclerc together at the same team?

If you look at what we might considered to be the top drivers on this years grid, Hamilton twice, Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo, Vettel twice, Alonso 3 times, all managed to find their way into top teams, Ricciardo another driver that walked out, Vettel basically got sacked.
Surely in the context of what you are discussing "top team" is totally irrelevant and the only thing that matters is championship contending team?

Something that Ricciardo, Verstappen and Leclerc have never had the privilege of.
Well the actual reference point to my post was Alonso and I seem to recall that he's been in 5 title contending cars and basically turned down 2017 and 2018 title contending cars, we just want to be fact checking my post?

The poster refuted my claim that the best drivers manage to find themselves in the best or top teams, that's not specific to what you are really wanting it to mean.

Originally I was also projecting the futures of Verstappen and Leclerc, apparently being in top teams won't necessarily be enough because domination is never ending?
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

pokerman wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:15 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:01 pm
pokerman wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:22 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:03 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:25 pm

Disprove it then.
Easy

Exhibit A: Alonso
Exhibit B: Webber and Bottas

Disproven
Alonso found his way into a top car 3 times but then also walked out 3 times, that's on him.

Regarding Webber and Bottas I'm sure both manged to get a top 6 ranking during their tenures in a top team, I think it's a bit naïve to think that top teams will allow certain driver combinations, do you think we will ever see Verstappen and Leclerc together at the same team?

If you look at what we might considered to be the top drivers on this years grid, Hamilton twice, Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo, Vettel twice, Alonso 3 times, all managed to find their way into top teams, Ricciardo another driver that walked out, Vettel basically got sacked.
Surely in the context of what you are discussing "top team" is totally irrelevant and the only thing that matters is championship contending team?

Something that Ricciardo, Verstappen and Leclerc have never had the privilege of.
Well the actual reference point to my post was Alonso and I seem to recall that he's been in 5 title contending cars and basically turned down 2017 and 2018 title contending cars, we just want to be fact checking my post?

The poster refuted my claim that the best drivers manage to find themselves in the best or top teams, that's not specific to what you are really wanting it to mean.

Originally I was also projecting the futures of Verstappen and Leclerc, apparently being in top teams won't necessarily be enough because domination is never ending?
What I want it to mean is something relevant rather than irrelevant. Even in non dominant times being in a "top team" often doesn't do a driver any good when it comes to competing for the championship. Nelson Piquet JR drove or a "top team" but didn't drive a car with any hope of competing for the championship. Ricciardo has spent almost his entire career in "top teams" but it's not done him a lot of good.

Besides... What even constitutes a top team?

I think it's pretty clear that the best drivers don't get into the best cars. Whether you like it or not that is evidenced by Merc deciding to stick with Bottas rather than hire Alonso or Ricciardo.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by Schumacher forever#1 »

pokerman wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:15 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:01 pm
pokerman wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:22 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:03 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:25 pm

Disprove it then.
Easy

Exhibit A: Alonso
Exhibit B: Webber and Bottas

Disproven
Alonso found his way into a top car 3 times but then also walked out 3 times, that's on him.

Regarding Webber and Bottas I'm sure both manged to get a top 6 ranking during their tenures in a top team, I think it's a bit naïve to think that top teams will allow certain driver combinations, do you think we will ever see Verstappen and Leclerc together at the same team?

If you look at what we might considered to be the top drivers on this years grid, Hamilton twice, Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo, Vettel twice, Alonso 3 times, all managed to find their way into top teams, Ricciardo another driver that walked out, Vettel basically got sacked.
Surely in the context of what you are discussing "top team" is totally irrelevant and the only thing that matters is championship contending team?

Something that Ricciardo, Verstappen and Leclerc have never had the privilege of.
Well the actual reference point to my post was Alonso and I seem to recall that he's been in 5 title contending cars and basically turned down 2017 and 2018 title contending cars, we just want to be fact checking my post?

The poster refuted my claim that the best drivers manage to find themselves in the best or top teams, that's not specific to what you are really wanting it to mean.

Originally I was also projecting the futures of Verstappen and Leclerc, apparently being in top teams won't necessarily be enough because domination is never ending?

I think you're comparing foresight to hindsight, as if they are two of the same.

In F1, there will always and ever be a time lag of uncertainty. That time lag is the difference in time between when a commits to an F1 team, and the future time at which they expect the team they are signing with will be competitive. It's exceptionally uncertain, particularly into new regulations.

In your attempt to shun Alonso into picking the wrong career moves, you are indirectly illustrating the core issue at hand. It is exceptionally hard to predict the future winners. Particularly in today's Formula where team-driver relationships are very sticky, opportunities to move to different capable teams come around every few years. This inertia makes it even harder for the top driver to be placed into the top team.

We can hardly fault Alonso with his roll of the dice effort. For five years, Ferrari have failed to deliver him a car - and critically into the next generation. Did it make sense to wait around another handful years in a mid-tier car, hoping that things would turn around? Do we also shun Hamilton for leaving the top team Mclaren for rolling the dice with Mercedes? There will always be uncertainty about the future. The best we can hope for is a liquid driver market and cars to shift balance of power more frequently. Add to this more deregulation - as engine freezes and the like simply extend a team's dominance.
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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by WHoff78 »

I think this is the key question really. Poker simply pointed out that the best drivers are likely to be in top teams. Whether those teams have a top, or title contending car, is really what everybody wants to know. That is never going to be a guarantee.

Even with Hamilton, it isn’t clear whether the right decision would be to stay with Merc or look elsewhere to close out his career. If they decide that they do want to reduce their investment in the sport then perhaps they will pass the reigns to someone else. Ferrari have to be one of the bigger questionmarks right now, but I’m sure a lot of us are assuming, and hoping that last year was just a blip.

Which is the team to be in from 2022? That is the call that the drivers need to make now, but I’m sure that many of them (Verstappen/Leclerc, and probably Hamilton) will stick with the horse they have already chosen, rather than take a leap of faith. You have to ask how long Verstappen will keep gambling on Red Bull – are they his best chance from 2022, or will some of the midfield rise to the top in the shuffle. Don't think that there are any really obvious contenders, but Mercedes seem to perform in every department so hard really to bet against them.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by FrogInARaceCar »

pokerman wrote:
Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:36 pm
Invade wrote:
Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:04 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:33 pm
Invade wrote:
Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:20 pm
I'd expect the fastest of the next gen to be a touch quicker than those of the previous, so those figures fit in line with my intuition, at least.
But Schumacher was quicker than both Alonso and Hamilton, which contradicts that idea.

I have Schumacher up 0.190% on Hamilton using Button-Barrichello as a reference, and about 0.130% up using Massa-Bottas reference.

Therefore, the ultimate speed of drivers from the 21st century is:

1. Schumacher
2. Verstappen
3. Leclerc
4/5. Hamilton = Ricciardo
6. Alonso
This isn't clear. You're relying on synchronic measurements, which relates contemporaneous performance, to be diachronically meaningful regarding absolute performance. There are transitive links but they aren't immune from the slowly shifting band of 'global' or macro performance in a sport. Bobby Fischer had an absurd gap to the field in chess but clearly played weaker chess than Carlsen plays today, who is less dominant over his contemporaries - or even Anand, who was never particularly dominant. OK, the time gaps in these examples are large, but just because in some comparisons there is less distance doesn't mean a difference in general performance, at the top level and of the grid in general, isn't occurring. And that change isn't necessarily linear, but the general trend is improvement and increased professionalism.

In short, relative contemporaneous dominance can't reliably be used to state factually that a driver from one time is faster than a driver from another.

But in terms of who was most ahead of their time, much like Fischer was ahead of his Schumacher was ahead of his. But perhaps Karpov was better than Fischer, and perhaps he would have beat him.
Yeah I also broached this subject, drivers in the past often gapped their teammates by over 1 second in qualifying sessions, todays equivalent would be cut back to half a second plus, today's competition is either better or the knowledge is better with access to data, you beat your teammate easily in one race, the next race he gets a 700 page document explaining why it happened.
I think there is something to the idea of teammate comparisons as a way of predicting future performance. I'm interested to see how the predictions from the start of the thread turn out.
But... statements like "Therefore, the ultimate speed of drivers from the 21st century is..." are so wildly overconfident as to be almost meaningless. Eras change, drivers evolve over time and every link in the chain adds more uncertainty. Hell, if we say Michael Schumacher is the "fastest driver of the 21st century" are we talking about 2000-2004 Michael Schumacher who swept all before him, or 2010-2012 Michael Schumacher who was roundly beaten by Nico Rosberg? Or both?

I like this thread as a way of trialling the quantitative A>B>C method. As I said, I think it does have some value, although I suspect the results tend to match intuition and I'm keen to see if one of these analyses can correctly predict a surprise. But I also know that it's easy to unconciously produce results that reflect your personal opinions, and statistical errors are a pain in the pickle to correctly account for.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by KingVoid »

pokerman wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:22 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:03 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:25 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:50 pm
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:35 pm

Well Alonso put himself in that position, that's less likely to happen with either Verstappen or Leclerc especially if they established themselves as the 2 best drivers in the sport they will always find a seat in a top team, we might say that they already have. F1 is changing with budget caps and development handicaps for the more successful teams, I would say that the future looks bright for both of them.
The idea that the best drivers end up in the best cars (which is what you are trying to push here), is one of the most easily disprovable myths in F1.

It simply isn’t true.
Disprove it then.
Easy

Exhibit A: Alonso
Exhibit B: Webber and Bottas

Disproven
Alonso found his way into a top car 3 times but then also walked out 3 times, that's on him.

Regarding Webber and Bottas I'm sure both manged to get a top 6 ranking during their tenures in a top team, I think it's a bit naïve to think that top teams will allow certain driver combinations, do you think we will ever see Verstappen and Leclerc together at the same team?

If you look at what we might considered to be the top drivers on this years grid, Hamilton twice, Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo, Vettel twice, Alonso 3 times, all managed to find their way into top teams, Ricciardo another driver that walked out, Vettel basically got sacked.
Top team and top car are not synonyms

Is Red Bull a top team? Sure. Was any Red Bull car from 2014-2020 anywhere near as good as their Mercedes counterpart? No.

The phrase “top team” is a bit meaningless anyway. Perez thought he joined a top team in 2013 only to end up with a car slower than his Sauber from the season before.

At the end of the day, Bottas has spent at least 5 years of his career in WDC capable machinery while Ricciardo has never had a WDC capable car. Ricciardo is a better driver, but Bottas drives better cars. That just shows how “best drivers end up in the best cars” is a total myth.

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Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by WHoff78 »

KingVoid wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:02 pm
pokerman wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:22 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:03 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:25 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 5:50 pm

The idea that the best drivers end up in the best cars (which is what you are trying to push here), is one of the most easily disprovable myths in F1.

It simply isn’t true.
Disprove it then.
Easy

Exhibit A: Alonso
Exhibit B: Webber and Bottas

Disproven
Alonso found his way into a top car 3 times but then also walked out 3 times, that's on him.

Regarding Webber and Bottas I'm sure both manged to get a top 6 ranking during their tenures in a top team, I think it's a bit naïve to think that top teams will allow certain driver combinations, do you think we will ever see Verstappen and Leclerc together at the same team?

If you look at what we might considered to be the top drivers on this years grid, Hamilton twice, Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo, Vettel twice, Alonso 3 times, all managed to find their way into top teams, Ricciardo another driver that walked out, Vettel basically got sacked.
Top team and top car are not synonyms

Is Red Bull a top team? Sure. Was any Red Bull car from 2014-2020 anywhere near as good as their Mercedes counterpart? No.

The phrase “top team” is a bit meaningless anyway. Perez thought he joined a top team in 2013 only to end up with a car slower than his Sauber from the season before.

At the end of the day, Bottas has spent at least 5 years of his career in WDC capable machinery while Ricciardo has never had a WDC capable car. Ricciardo is a better driver, but Bottas drives better cars. That just shows how “best drivers end up in the best cars” is a total myth.
That clearly depends how you rate the drivers. I would suggest that those who rate Hamilton as the best of his generation would be quick to point out that the best team signed him up. He also kept the McLaren seat for 2008, despite the year before going up against the one driver who would have been super confident, fresh of his two world driver titles, and who many think was the best on the grid at the time.

WHoff78
Posts: 880
Joined: Wed Dec 11, 2013 11:01 pm

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by WHoff78 »

Plus, the saying is that the best drivers generally get into the best cars/teams. No-one is saying that ONLY the best drivers end up in the best cars. It is very unusual for a team to go for two alphas and very difficult to manage, so that is a different argument all together. I think the best we could hope for there is a Hamilton-Russell pairing in 2022. McLaren are one of the few team who seems to have a history of putting great drivers alongside each other. And I think they've lined up another treat for us with Ricciardo and Norris.

KingVoid
Posts: 3144
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2015 7:54 am

Re: The Great Big 2021 A > B > C Thread

Post by KingVoid »

WHoff78 wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:04 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 8:02 pm
pokerman wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:22 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:03 am
pokerman wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 9:25 pm

Disprove it then.
Easy

Exhibit A: Alonso
Exhibit B: Webber and Bottas

Disproven
Alonso found his way into a top car 3 times but then also walked out 3 times, that's on him.

Regarding Webber and Bottas I'm sure both manged to get a top 6 ranking during their tenures in a top team, I think it's a bit naïve to think that top teams will allow certain driver combinations, do you think we will ever see Verstappen and Leclerc together at the same team?

If you look at what we might considered to be the top drivers on this years grid, Hamilton twice, Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo, Vettel twice, Alonso 3 times, all managed to find their way into top teams, Ricciardo another driver that walked out, Vettel basically got sacked.
Top team and top car are not synonyms

Is Red Bull a top team? Sure. Was any Red Bull car from 2014-2020 anywhere near as good as their Mercedes counterpart? No.

The phrase “top team” is a bit meaningless anyway. Perez thought he joined a top team in 2013 only to end up with a car slower than his Sauber from the season before.

At the end of the day, Bottas has spent at least 5 years of his career in WDC capable machinery while Ricciardo has never had a WDC capable car. Ricciardo is a better driver, but Bottas drives better cars. That just shows how “best drivers end up in the best cars” is a total myth.
That clearly depends how you rate the drivers. I would suggest that those who rate Hamilton as the best of his generation would be quick to point out that the best team signed him up. He also kept the McLaren seat for 2008, despite the year before going up against the one driver who would have been super confident, fresh of his two world driver titles, and who many think was the best on the grid at the time.
Hamilton approached Red Bull in 2012 and was rejected. Red Bull was the best seat in the sport at the time, and the best driver of his generation was rejected from that seat, while Sebastian Vettel (a driver wildly agreed to be inferior) kept the best seat on the grid.

How is that possible in a sport where the best drivers always end up in the best cars?

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