Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

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KingVoid
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Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by KingVoid »

By the time 2021 ends, Lewis Hamilton will have won 8 world titles and around 110 races. Unless a meteor hits Brackley, this is all but inevitable.

There are numerous changes for 2022, both with the cars and the sporting regulations. A budget cap is set to be introduced for next season. Mercedes spend around $100m more than Red Bull and $200m more than Renault and McLaren. Only an incompetent Ferrari team can match their resources and spending power. One of Mercedes' biggest advantages over the rest of the field will soon be removed.

Another important rule change is that the number of hours in the windtunnel will be limited to your WCC finishing position in the previous season. This is a rule change that basically punishes success. FIA have gone out of their way to make the sport as much of an even playing field as possible.

With these rule changes, I do not ever expect any driver to come anywhere near the records set by Hamilton, no matter how insanely talented they might be. That is because under the new sporting regulations for 2022, it will be impossible for any team to dominate to anywhere near the same extent as Mercedes 2014-2021. A Mercedes team that won 80% of the races and took 80% of the pole positions over an 8 year period.

People are harping on about Verstappen and Leclerc, but they won't come within a million miles of Hamilton's records. They probably won't even reach Vettel's trophy haul.

Calling it now. Let's see if I am right in a decade from now. ;)

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Badgeronimous
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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Badgeronimous »

I hope nobody challenges Hamiltons numbers. I mean, if formula 1 is healthy, nobody should be getting near Hamiltons records. The Mercedes numbers up near 80% are not healthy for the sport. Hamilton is a great, great driver but he hasn't been head, shoulders, and a fair bit of torso ahead of the competition like his stats suggest.

Fact is, with potentially 23-24 races a season. Any quality driver getting into a dominant car could very quickly get to 50+ wins. However if the sports healthy, no driver should be running away with it.

I didn't think I'd see the Ferrari winning machine of the 00s matched. Mercedes have matched that, and then some. Backed up by a brilliant driver who delivers the results.

I

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Invade
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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Invade »

Not sure I agree. There are plenty of more stringent meritocracies in sport which have seen periods of prolonged dominance. In fact, though the changes make sustained crushing dominance less likely, it makes longevity of solid winning results more likely. Of course, we don't actually yet know how profound the changes to the F1 landscape will be, but I can see this general trade-off occurring.

Regardless, we will judge the accomplishments of future greats accordingly to their circumstance — something we'll have to play by ear and not with preconceived notions as the journeys unfold.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by KingVoid »

Badgeronimous wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:16 am
I hope nobody challenges Hamiltons numbers. I mean, if formula 1 is healthy, nobody should be getting near Hamiltons records. The Mercedes numbers up near 80% are not healthy for the sport. Hamilton is a great, great driver but he hasn't been head, shoulders, and a fair bit of torso ahead of the competition like his stats suggest.
This begs the question:

Imagine if no driver in the next 30 years gets anywhere near Hamilton's records. The most any driver from 2022-2052 can achieve is 50 race wins. Will this mean that:

1. Hamilton is universally regarded as the undisputed GOAT
2. Hamilton's achievements are discredited because he drove for a team that that was far more dominant than any other team in history

Which one is it?

Will the fact that Mercedes won 80% of the races and took 80% of the pole positions from 2014-2021 be used as an argument against Hamilton's greatness? Or will his statistical dominance be used in his favour?

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Invade
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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Invade »

KingVoid wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:27 am
Badgeronimous wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:16 am
I hope nobody challenges Hamiltons numbers. I mean, if formula 1 is healthy, nobody should be getting near Hamiltons records. The Mercedes numbers up near 80% are not healthy for the sport. Hamilton is a great, great driver but he hasn't been head, shoulders, and a fair bit of torso ahead of the competition like his stats suggest.
This begs the question:

Imagine if no driver in the next 30 years gets anywhere near Hamilton's records. The most any driver from 2022-2052 can achieve is 50 race wins. Will this mean that:

1. Hamilton is universally regarded as the undisputed GOAT
2. Hamilton's achievements are discredited because he drove for a team that that was far more dominant than any other team in history

Which one is it?

Will the fact that Mercedes won 80% of the races and took 80% of the pole positions from 2014-2021 be used as an argument against Hamilton's greatness? Or will his statistical dominance be used in his favour?
This assumes that the changes have such an effect and also that such a meta-formula would be the paradigm for 30 years. If that does transpire, however, I'm sure we'll be smart enough to contextualise accordingly. The spectrum of perception will be wide, as you outlined with your two options, but ultimately Hamilton won't have "GOAT" locked up and neither will he be unfairly marginalised by the majority of long-time F1 fans. Besides, each generation moves with their own — look at the groundswell for LeBron James under a people who didn't really watch Michael Jordan's career.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Invade »

Hopefully, Hamilton isn't going anywhere until he's at least 40, in which case we'll have a more complete picture of how he stacks up against the potential greats lurking in the shadows on the F1 Grid, led by Verstappen.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by KingVoid »

Invade wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:35 am
Hopefully, Hamilton isn't going anywhere until he's at least 40, in which case we'll have a more complete picture of how he stacks up against the potential greats lurking in the shadows on the F1 Grid, led by Verstappen.
The most frustrating part of this endless domination from Mercedes is that we have been waiting since 2016 for a battle between Hamilton and Verstappen and it still hasn't come.

Senna's death robbed us from a real battle between him and Schumacher. The hyper uncompetitive state of F1 has robbed us from a battle between Verstappen/Leclerc and Hamilton.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Schermerhorn »

KingVoid wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:27 am
Badgeronimous wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:16 am
I hope nobody challenges Hamiltons numbers. I mean, if formula 1 is healthy, nobody should be getting near Hamiltons records. The Mercedes numbers up near 80% are not healthy for the sport. Hamilton is a great, great driver but he hasn't been head, shoulders, and a fair bit of torso ahead of the competition like his stats suggest.
This begs the question:

Imagine if no driver in the next 30 years gets anywhere near Hamilton's records. The most any driver from 2022-2052 can achieve is 50 race wins. Will this mean that:

1. Hamilton is universally regarded as the undisputed GOAT
2. Hamilton's achievements are discredited because he drove for a team that that was far more dominant than any other team in history

Which one is it?

Will the fact that Mercedes won 80% of the races and took 80% of the pole positions from 2014-2021 be used as an argument against Hamilton's greatness? Or will his statistical dominance be used in his favour?
Both.

On one hand, Hamilton made the most of his elite skills and beat every team mate - with the exception of Rosberg in 2016. So you have to give him credit for that.

On the other hand, in this era he has had virtually no resistance and not much to overcome. His car was always in a position to win every race of the hydrid era. That sort of dominance can't be overlooked and we know that even elite drivers can only make up a certain amount of time. The rest of it is all car and technology.
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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Covalent »

Hopefully not, F1 can't afford such dominance by one team and driver again.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Lotus49 »

If the new rules work then no, no-one will come close and F1 may well get split into 2 eras much like tennis when talked about in the future because the era's differ so greatly.

If they don't work and we still get dominant cars for extended periods then with the ever expanding calendar and what i expect to be longer careers for the best driver then they may well do. Maybe even by a driver already on the grid like a Max or Leclerc who both could still have 300-350 GP's to go in their careers.
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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Badgeronimous »

KingVoid wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:27 am
Badgeronimous wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:16 am
I hope nobody challenges Hamiltons numbers. I mean, if formula 1 is healthy, nobody should be getting near Hamiltons records. The Mercedes numbers up near 80% are not healthy for the sport. Hamilton is a great, great driver but he hasn't been head, shoulders, and a fair bit of torso ahead of the competition like his stats suggest.
This begs the question:

Imagine if no driver in the next 30 years gets anywhere near Hamilton's records. The most any driver from 2022-2052 can achieve is 50 race wins. Will this mean that:

1. Hamilton is universally regarded as the undisputed GOAT
2. Hamilton's achievements are discredited because he drove for a team that that was far more dominant than any other team in history

Which one is it?

Will the fact that Mercedes won 80% of the races and took 80% of the pole positions from 2014-2021 be used as an argument against Hamilton's greatness? Or will his statistical dominance be used in his favour?
No matter how great you are, you can't win races (under normal circumstances) without the equipment. No driver in history has been in a car that is capable of winning 10+ races a season, for 8 seasons in a row, never mind 80% of races over that period (we are assuming 2021 will be an action replay of 2020). Big part of that is down to Hamiltons brilliance, but it is impossible to overlook the team. Ditto for Schumacher.

Looking at 2012 as an example, many will agree Alonso's season that year was as good as any in memory. However he only came away with 3 wins (indeed Hamilton came away with 4). If somebody put in that level of performance in a 2020 Merc, they would be looking at 12-13 wins most likely. However in that situation, somebody could put in 8 years of ATG quality seasons, and maybe only have 30 wins to show for it. To reach 91 wins over a career, say 12 years, is an average of 7.5 wins a season, with longer seasons (probably will end up about 23 races) that is far more doable than over a 16-17 race season.

Hamiltons stats will always see him spoken about as being GOAT, but I think context will always be mentioned.
Last edited by Badgeronimous on Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by DOLOMITE »

I'm only seeing Verstappen as the driver that could do it in terms of all round ability and consistency. So then it comes down to ow many seasons will Max have his hands on a winning car. Impossible to say. With less stability in rules and ownership of F1 I can't see a period of prolonged dominance like Merc have managed - but then I didn't see Merc's current one coming!

With young start ages, long-term contracts and so many races per season I can see other drivers passing Senna, Prost and maybe Vettel , but still feels like Schu/Hamilton is unlikely.

Another element at play is if the team with the dominant car employ a clear no 1 driver. Imagine Prost or Senna's stats if McLaren had gone for a clear No 2 to one or the other.
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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Option or Prime »

KingVoid wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:27 am

Imagine if no driver in the next 30 years gets anywhere near Hamilton's records. The most any driver from 2022-2052 can achieve is 50 race wins. Will this mean that:
I'd agree with the title of the post and much of the subsequent argument but the one thing that is an assumption that I actually think is wrong is that in 2052 there will still be an F1 that looks remotely like to current version.

Hybrid is currently an ICU supplemented by electrical power, are we sure that there will be any room at all for an ICU in 2052? I think the horizon will be very different in 10-15 years and for that reason Hamilton's records will never be broken.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

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Invade wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:24 am
Not sure I agree. There are plenty of more stringent meritocracies in sport which have seen periods of prolonged dominance. In fact, though the changes make sustained crushing dominance less likely, it makes longevity of solid winning results more likely. Of course, we don't actually yet know how profound the changes to the F1 landscape will be, but I can see this general trade-off occurring.

Regardless, we will judge the accomplishments of future greats accordingly to their circumstance — something we'll have to play by ear and not with preconceived notions as the journeys unfold.
The first part of your post made me think of something I haven’t considered before... if someone nails the 2022 regulations, with the budget cap will the others find it harder to catch up?

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Schumacher forever#1 »

There are three main drivers for higher win counts these days:
  • Extended time of driver careers
  • Increased amounts of races per year
  • More predictable racing (tighter regulations, and increased competitive advantages for top teams)
If we have, for example, another Schumacher type period, in which arguably there was a clear number 1 driver across the grid, I think it could very easily happen. The last twenty years were no the exception, they will likely become the norm. We have seen Schumacher, Vettel and Hamilton dominate win counts in different eras. If a driver has a racing career of 20 years, then they'll only need to win 6 races per year, (Likely 25% of races) in order to beat Hamilton. It is even easier when we consider that Formula 1 is tending to number 1, number 2 driver teams as well. The only caveat is that, with longer careers, it's likely we will have larger talent pools since more careers will intersect with each other, unlike before, making it harder to achieve dominance over a grid.
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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Schermerhorn »

JN23 wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:20 am
Invade wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:24 am
Not sure I agree. There are plenty of more stringent meritocracies in sport which have seen periods of prolonged dominance. In fact, though the changes make sustained crushing dominance less likely, it makes longevity of solid winning results more likely. Of course, we don't actually yet know how profound the changes to the F1 landscape will be, but I can see this general trade-off occurring.

Regardless, we will judge the accomplishments of future greats accordingly to their circumstance — something we'll have to play by ear and not with preconceived notions as the journeys unfold.
The first part of your post made me think of something I haven’t considered before... if someone nails the 2022 regulations, with the budget cap will the others find it harder to catch up?
Looking (very briefly) at the 2022 regulations, there seems to be a lot of emphasis on aerodynamics (to aid overtaking presumably) and I can envisage this is where Red Bull may find some type of trick especially around the floor and diffuser area and offset any advantage the hybrid engine systems may have.

If this is Red Bull's time to shine, this could be the moment.....
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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Paolo_Lasardi »

I thought the same about Schumacher's records - so I will be more cautious this time.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Option or Prime »

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:12 am
I thought the same about Schumacher's records - so I will be more cautious this time.
If you level the playing field though doesn't that mean a more general spread of results removing dominance. Neither Schumacher nor Hamilton have had a similarly talented peer of the same age. At minimum Leclerc and Verstappen fall into that bracket, even possibly one other. Its the dominance that dictates what happens.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by pokerman »

We've had this discussion before, only in motorsports is domination a bad thing, in other sports it's something to be feted, don't we like our sporting heroes, the greats of the sports, but no we don't want that, a driver winning 10 races in a season is damaging to the sport.

I've seen it also said in MotoGP were Marc Marquez wins 50% of the races and often he's not even on the best bike, totally unlike what we see in F1, yet still how much better it is this year with Marquez out injured, a different winner at almost every race, it's so unpredictible, so much better that riders seem to be very similar in performance.

Going on from that back to F1, with 25 races a season and with no dominant cars anymore why wouldn't it be possible for Verstappen to win 10 races a season, nominally in qualifying he would probably start from pole more often than not, 10 wins looks easily doable.

Verstappen dominating the sport would no doubt then trigger the reverse grid brigade because it's so boring and predictible, I would question that some people merely want to be entertained and don't really view F1 as a sport.
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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

I don't think its that unlikely to be honest.

For starters lets just look at the numbers. Hamilton started at the age of 22, the minimum required age is now 18 so an exceptionally talented driver could have 4 years on Hamilton already, and that assumes the minimum age never drops, which is certainly possible since its only a recent rule. So even without knowing when Hamilton retires it's quite easy for a future star to have over 100 races more than Hamilton in their career with the way the calendar is and is likely to continue these days.

So, the regulations. They are supposed to make everything closer and if they work it should make it harder to sustain dominance, but what if they don't work? What if in 10 years time a new wave of fans wants to see what a team could do with a 300m budget and the regulations change? Even assuming that they do work and that they remain this way for the foreseeable future, there are still going to be big changes in the regulations, what happens if a team just nails it? Could we be in a situation where the advantage is locked in by the other teams not being able to spend enough to catch up, while the team that got it right originally just refines the winning concept?

Even then you have to take into account all of the factors that are outside of the teams control. What if we have a tyre war again and one manufacturer gets it right while supplying only 1 team that is capable enough of top level performance? There is bound to be a few big power unit changes at some point in the future, whatever that entail, so you have the same possibility with PU manufacturers.

In say 2012 the thought of Hamilton ending his career on 110 wins would have been considered next to impossible, then Mercedes happened. Now it seems impossible anyone could end a career on 120 wins, lets see what happens next.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

Max Verstappen is the age Hamilton was during his first season, has the experience Hamilton had when he joined Mercedes, already has 5 wins more than Hamilton had at the conclusion of his first season, and will have a longer average season. Hamilton's records are not insurmountable. He also has the reputation of being the heir to Hamilton, the only driver who pretty much everyone agrees is on the same level as Hamilton, and consequentially will never struggle to get a seat in a top team should he want it.

Hamilton has won approximately 1/3 races he has contested - if the 2022 regulations do produce closer racing between the teams it not unlikely that Max would achieve that strike rate. Closer racing does not mean an even distribution of wins, it means that the driver makes more of a difference.

With a dominant team, then the picture is the same and then it's the talent that finds themselves in the best car on the grid. But Hamilton and Schumacher have shown that the best drivers do invariably manage that, and that they are able to galvanise a strong team into being even stronger.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Option or Prime »

Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:34 pm
What if in 10 years time a new wave of fans wants to see what a team could do with a 300m budget and the regulations change?
In 10 years time if you drive a new car to a Grand Prix in the UK it will be an electric one!

Mercedes and Renault and to a different extent McLaren and Ferrari want to sell cars will they not be competing to be the best in the most relevant sport to their products. I really think we need to see that fossil fuelled F1 racing has a finite window. Everyone just assumes the next 30 years will be like the previous 30 years.

If Verstappen or Leclerc want to beat Hamilton's records in a car remotely similar to Hamiltons they needed to be be winning titles right now! If you think its hard to compare Fangio's and Hamilton's achievements now what will it be like in 2030?
Hamilton will win his 8th title then the lid will go on the box and F1 will reboot.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by DFWdude »

Invade wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:35 am
Hopefully, Hamilton isn't going anywhere until he's at least 40, in which case we'll have a more complete picture of how he stacks up against the potential greats lurking in the shadows on the F1 Grid, led by Verstappen.
I think this question has self-limiting factors. Hamilton is 34 now. With as many outside interests and distractions he has, I wouldn't be surprised if he retired at any time. No way will he stay another 6 years.

The racing timespan of an F1 driver is age limited. Schumacher retired the first time in 2006 (age 37) and his later return to the sport indicates he should have called it a day the first time. Alonso returns next season, and will prove he is no better suited at age 40. You read it here.

Beyond admirable longevity for either of these drivers. But it requires a long time in the sport to run-up the staggering number of wins needed to break these records. Time that most drivers never compile. Especially for a talented #2-#4 driver that never gets a chance to rack up win tallies because #1 dominates, instead.

Not to mention that the FIA inevitably steps in to limit the successfulness of a dominant car/team.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Paolo_Lasardi »

pokerman wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:17 pm
We've had this discussion before, only in motorsports is domination a bad thing, in other sports it's something to be feted, don't we like our sporting heroes, the greats of the sports, but no we don't want that, a driver winning 10 races in a season is damaging to the sport.

I've seen it also said in MotoGP were Marc Marquez wins 50% of the races and often he's not even on the best bike, totally unlike what we see in F1, yet still how much better it is this year with Marquez out injured, a different winner at almost every race, it's so unpredictible, so much better that riders seem to be very similar in performance.

Going on from that back to F1, with 25 races a season and with no dominant cars anymore why wouldn't it be possible for Verstappen to win 10 races a season, nominally in qualifying he would probably start from pole more often than not, 10 wins looks easily doable.

Verstappen dominating the sport would no doubt then trigger the reverse grid brigade because it's so boring and predictible, I would question that some people merely want to be entertained and don't really view F1 as a sport.
One relevant difference to most other sports is the relevance of the car/team: in most sports, superior talent dominates on a level-playing field. In F1, Schumacher and Hamilton often only needed to beat their teammate to rack up the wins ...

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by KingVoid »

pokerman wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:17 pm
We've had this discussion before, only in motorsports is domination a bad thing, in other sports it's something to be feted, don't we like our sporting heroes, the greats of the sports, but no we don't want that, a driver winning 10 races in a season is damaging to the sport.
That is because unlike say tennis (a sport entirely dependent on only skill), more often than not, domination in motorsport is a biproduct of the car.

Part of the reason why Vettel's dominance was so hated was because there was always an underlying feeling that he wasn't actually the best driver on the grid. That was proven correct in the future.

Even in Hamilton's case, there are a lot of people (including both you and I) who think that Verstappen is faster than him. Of course, because of his machinery, he has no chance to compete with him.

Imagine if sometime in the future, Formula 1 becomes GP1 and every car is identical. If the only differentiating factor is driver skill, and one driver dominates, then I'd be the first to hold my hand up.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by KingVoid »

Option or Prime wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:51 am
Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 11:12 am
I thought the same about Schumacher's records - so I will be more cautious this time.
If you level the playing field though doesn't that mean a more general spread of results removing dominance. Neither Schumacher nor Hamilton have had a similarly talented peer of the same age. At minimum Leclerc and Verstappen fall into that bracket, even possibly one other. Its the dominance that dictates what happens.
Alonso is only 3.5 years older than Hamilton

Alonso and Hamilton both gambled going into the hybrid era and Alonso's gamble (McLaren-Honda) failed miserably while Hamilton's gamble (Mercedes) paid off beautifully.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by pokerman »

DFWdude wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:08 pm
Invade wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:35 am
Hopefully, Hamilton isn't going anywhere until he's at least 40, in which case we'll have a more complete picture of how he stacks up against the potential greats lurking in the shadows on the F1 Grid, led by Verstappen.
I think this question has self-limiting factors. Hamilton is 34 now. With as many outside interests and distractions he has, I wouldn't be surprised if he retired at any time. No way will he stay another 6 years.

The racing timespan of an F1 driver is age limited. Schumacher retired the first time in 2006 (age 37) and his later return to the sport indicates he should have called it a day the first time. Alonso returns next season, and will prove he is no better suited at age 40. You read it here.

Beyond admirable longevity for either of these drivers. But it requires a long time in the sport to run-up the staggering number of wins needed to break these records. Time that most drivers never compile. Especially for a talented #2-#4 driver that never gets a chance to rack up win tallies because #1 dominates, instead.

Not to mention that the FIA inevitably steps in to limit the successfulness of a dominant car/team.
Hamilton is actually 35 fast closing onto 36.
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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by pokerman »

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:04 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:17 pm
We've had this discussion before, only in motorsports is domination a bad thing, in other sports it's something to be feted, don't we like our sporting heroes, the greats of the sports, but no we don't want that, a driver winning 10 races in a season is damaging to the sport.

I've seen it also said in MotoGP were Marc Marquez wins 50% of the races and often he's not even on the best bike, totally unlike what we see in F1, yet still how much better it is this year with Marquez out injured, a different winner at almost every race, it's so unpredictible, so much better that riders seem to be very similar in performance.

Going on from that back to F1, with 25 races a season and with no dominant cars anymore why wouldn't it be possible for Verstappen to win 10 races a season, nominally in qualifying he would probably start from pole more often than not, 10 wins looks easily doable.

Verstappen dominating the sport would no doubt then trigger the reverse grid brigade because it's so boring and predictible, I would question that some people merely want to be entertained and don't really view F1 as a sport.
One relevant difference to most other sports is the relevance of the car/team: in most sports, superior talent dominates on a level-playing field. In F1, Schumacher and Hamilton often only needed to beat their teammate to rack up the wins ...
Well I was talking of a future were the cars are more equal.
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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:55 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:17 pm
We've had this discussion before, only in motorsports is domination a bad thing, in other sports it's something to be feted, don't we like our sporting heroes, the greats of the sports, but no we don't want that, a driver winning 10 races in a season is damaging to the sport.
That is because unlike say tennis (a sport entirely dependent on only skill), more often than not, domination in motorsport is a biproduct of the car.

Part of the reason why Vettel's dominance was so hated was because there was always an underlying feeling that he wasn't actually the best driver on the grid. That was proven correct in the future.

Even in Hamilton's case, there are a lot of people (including both you and I) who think that Verstappen is faster than him. Of course, because of his machinery, he has no chance to compete with him.

Imagine if sometime in the future, Formula 1 becomes GP1 and every car is identical. If the only differentiating factor is driver skill, and one driver dominates, then I'd be the first to hold my hand up.
Same again I don't think you really read my post about a future were the cars are more equal.
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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

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pokerman wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:17 pm
Going on from that back to F1, with 25 races a season and with no dominant cars anymore why wouldn't it be possible for Verstappen to win 10 races a season, nominally in qualifying he would probably start from pole more often than not, 10 wins looks easily doable.

Verstappen dominating the sport would no doubt then trigger the reverse grid brigade because it's so boring and predictible, I would question that some people merely want to be entertained and don't really view F1 as a sport.
No it wouldn’t, because in your hypothetical future the cars are more equal.

I suspect that fans will be far more likely to accept dominance if they feel that it is caused by driver quality and not the car.

But winning 10 races in a season where 19 other drivers have a similar car as you would be an unbelievably difficult feat, almost impossible.

The closest thing to an “equal” season we have had in Formula 1 was probably 2012 (which was still far from equal overall). Vettel had the most wins that season, only 5.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by mikeyg123 »

2009 is the closest the whole field has been on pace. Especially in the second half of the season.

I agree with posters saying that dominance in F1 is less tolerable than in other sports as often only 1 driver has the opportunity to challenge that dominance. It's frustrating to see great drivers without a chance of winning year after year. This has been compounded by the increased stability we have in the sport. Teams position in relation to each other seem far more fixed and drivers change teams far less often that they used to. Mercedes in particular basically don't make driver changes. Next year will be Bottas' 5th season at Mercedes. In any other era that would be viewed as a long stint. McLaren has Coulthard/Hakkinen as team mates for 7 years and it was viewed as a huge stretch of stability. Now it's almost par of the course for the big teams. Vertsappen has already spent as long at Red Bull as Prost or Senna spent at McLaren.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Invade »

DFWdude wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:08 pm
Invade wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 2:35 am
Hopefully, Hamilton isn't going anywhere until he's at least 40, in which case we'll have a more complete picture of how he stacks up against the potential greats lurking in the shadows on the F1 Grid, led by Verstappen.
I think this question has self-limiting factors. Hamilton is 34 now. With as many outside interests and distractions he has, I wouldn't be surprised if he retired at any time. No way will he stay another 6 years.

The racing timespan of an F1 driver is age limited. Schumacher retired the first time in 2006 (age 37) and his later return to the sport indicates he should have called it a day the first time. Alonso returns next season, and will prove he is no better suited at age 40. You read it here.

Beyond admirable longevity for either of these drivers. But it requires a long time in the sport to run-up the staggering number of wins needed to break these records. Time that most drivers never compile. Especially for a talented #2-#4 driver that never gets a chance to rack up win tallies because #1 dominates, instead.

Not to mention that the FIA inevitably steps in to limit the successfulness of a dominant car/team.
He's almost 36.

I predict that Alonso will be very strong in his comeback. Too much of a talent buffer and he'll be entering familiar circumstances, and everyone has to 'reset' in 2022 — very different circumstances to mikeys791.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by KingVoid »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:09 pm
I agree with posters saying that dominance in F1 is less tolerable than in other sports as often only 1 driver has the opportunity to challenge that dominance. It's frustrating to see great drivers without a chance of winning year after year. This has been compounded by the increased stability we have in the sport. Teams position in relation to each other seem far more fixed and drivers change teams far less often that they used to. Mercedes in particular basically don't make driver changes. Next year will be Bottas' 5th season at Mercedes. In any other era that would be viewed as a long stint. McLaren has Coulthard/Hakkinen as team mates for 7 years and it was viewed as a huge stretch of stability. Now it's almost par of the course for the big teams. Vertsappen has already spent as long at Red Bull as Prost or Senna spent at McLaren.
Excluding Hamilton, the three most talented drivers are Verstappen, Alonso and Ricciardo.

Not one of them has had a single opportunity at a world title since 2014. All three have been stuck in cars vastly inferior to Mercedes for the last 7 seasons (will be 8 in 2021).

I cannot remember any other era in Formula 1 in history like this, where 3 of the top 4 drivers did not get a chance at competing for the WDC in 8 consecutive years because one team was just so superior to the rest.

Only 4 teams have won races since the beginning of the hybrid era in 2014. One of them was a complete fluke (Gasly). Only 3 teams have actually won a race on merit over a 7 year timespan.

2014-2021 will undoubtedly be remembered as the most one-sided and least competitive era in Formula 1 history.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

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In the unrealistic hypothetical scenario in which, more or less, only driver skill determines the results, you would see many instances of dominance, and concurrent joint dominance in eras with multiple alpha dogs. This is clearly demonstrated in any sport/game in which this is the case: snooker, darts, tennis, chess.

Alright, but F1 dynamics would be something in between the aforementioned games, which are one on one, and an open field game like golf. Dominance in golf is indeed rarer than in squash, badminton, and so on. But there are two obvious examples of overwhelming dominance in Jack and Tiger.

So I suppose the best analogue for F1 are other race formats where many competitors compete at the same time to win one race. But athletics has seen countless instances of sustained super dominance from many athletes across many distances.

The overwhelming evidence suggests that if F1 ever achieved such a quixotical state, in which team operations are equally proficient, cars are pretty much equal, and results were determined by driver skill and how they match according to various track characteristics and conditions, then periods of dominance would be observed and they might be much longer than anything seen before in the past because there would be nothing which would create a prolonged lull in career success to the best driver on the grid, such as driving an uncompetitive car.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by mikeyg123 »

Invade wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:43 pm
In the unrealistic hypothetical scenario in which, more or less, only driver skill determines the results, you would see many instances of dominance, and concurrent joint dominance in eras with multiple alpha dogs. This is clearly demonstrated in any sport/game in which this is the case: snooker, darts, tennis, chess.

Alright, but F1 dynamics would be something in between the aforementioned games, which are one on one, and an open field game like golf. Dominance in golf is indeed rarer than in squash, badminton, and so on. But there are two obvious examples of overwhelming dominance in Jack and Tiger.

So I suppose the best analogue for F1 are other race formats where many competitors compete at the same time to win one race. But athletics has seen countless instances of sustained super dominance from many athletes across many distances.

The overwhelming evidence is that if F1 ever achieved such a quixotical state, in which team operations are equally proficient, cars are pretty much equal, and results were determined by driver skill and how they match according to various track characteristics and conditions, then periods of dominance would be observed and they might be much longer than anything seen before in the past because there would be nothing which would create a prolonged lull in career success to the best driver on the grid, such as driving a uncompetitive car.
I think even if it was a spec series there are enough variables to prevent really long periods of total dominance. F1 is unlike most sports where, if the cars were equal, one small mistake by team or driver would take away any chance of a good result.

I think Alonso was the best driver in F1 from 2005-2018 but I doubt very much he'd have won every season if all the cars were equal.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Invade »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:51 pm
Invade wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:43 pm
In the unrealistic hypothetical scenario in which, more or less, only driver skill determines the results, you would see many instances of dominance, and concurrent joint dominance in eras with multiple alpha dogs. This is clearly demonstrated in any sport/game in which this is the case: snooker, darts, tennis, chess.

Alright, but F1 dynamics would be something in between the aforementioned games, which are one on one, and an open field game like golf. Dominance in golf is indeed rarer than in squash, badminton, and so on. But there are two obvious examples of overwhelming dominance in Jack and Tiger.

So I suppose the best analogue for F1 are other race formats where many competitors compete at the same time to win one race. But athletics has seen countless instances of sustained super dominance from many athletes across many distances.

The overwhelming evidence is that if F1 ever achieved such a quixotical state, in which team operations are equally proficient, cars are pretty much equal, and results were determined by driver skill and how they match according to various track characteristics and conditions, then periods of dominance would be observed and they might be much longer than anything seen before in the past because there would be nothing which would create a prolonged lull in career success to the best driver on the grid, such as driving a uncompetitive car.
I think even if it was a spec series there are enough variables to prevent really long periods of total dominance. F1 is unlike most sports where, if the cars were equal, one small mistake by team or driver would take away any chance of a good result.

I think Alonso was the best driver in F1 from 2005-2018 but I doubt very much he'd have won every season if all the cars were equal.
Which is why I called it quixotical, or more apt is to call it illusory. It's basically impossible to achieve the outlined dynamic. What is outlined is basically beyond a spec series because it supposes extreme control over myriad variables. But regardless, through a vast range of sporting disciplines in anything remotely resembling an actually sustainable meritocracy, dominance is par for the course. So I'd be very careful in predicting that the new regulations would preclude the possibility.

Alonso wouldn't have won every season from 2005-2018 because he wasn't clearly the best driver during the period. The era had at least two longstanding elites and some might argue three (I'd say two). In tennis, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have all displayed dominance while being contemporaries. It was impossible for any of them to finish #1 for even the majority of 2005-2018 because three elites were taking all the air out of the room. If Nadal and Djokovic had never come along then Federer would have kept bludgeoning the tour as he did from 2004-2007.

In an era where there is just one such talent, extreme dominance is very possible. And that does happen — it happened with Schumacher but sometimes he had to drive uncompetitive cars. Also it's possible that a talent arives truly beyond Alonso or Hamilton anyway and could live with such competition and still win the big prize the majority of the time (----- Max Verstappen Question Mark).

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Invade »

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:55 am
There are three main drivers for higher win counts these days:
  • Extended time of driver careers
  • Increased amounts of races per year
  • More predictable racing (tighter regulations, and increased competitive advantages for top teams)
If we have, for example, another Schumacher type period, in which arguably there was a clear number 1 driver across the grid, I think it could very easily happen. The last twenty years were no the exception, they will likely become the norm. We have seen Schumacher, Vettel and Hamilton dominate win counts in different eras. If a driver has a racing career of 20 years, then they'll only need to win 6 races per year, (Likely 25% of races) in order to beat Hamilton. It is even easier when we consider that Formula 1 is tending to number 1, number 2 driver teams as well. The only caveat is that, with longer careers, it's likely we will have larger talent pools since more careers will intersect with each other, unlike before, making it harder to achieve dominance over a grid.
I've thought about this and can only hope that there will be more than 20 cars running the future to accomodate all the great talents which will span multiple generations across maybe a range of 25+ years of age difference. Sports science is prolonging the primes of sports stars across the majority of sports. Beyond that, a plateauing improvement of the general standard as performance reaches toward some imagined cieling extends the range of careers in which following generations no longer automatically or swiftly usurp the older ones.This is a general trend across sports as far as I can monitor.

A lot of this depends on the stability of the sport. If technology or formulas change then it can have profound effects on the competition and the pecking order. In a game like chess, once superiority has been attained it can last for a very very long time, given that the conditions conquered to thrive will remain more or less unaltered for the entirety of one's career. In a game which sees a huge spread of competing generations, chaps like Karpov, Kasparov and Carlsen were able to achieve long stretches of dominance. And who knows when Carlsen's reign will end...

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Invade »

So if we look at Alonso, Hamilton, Schumacher (and Vettel) from 2005-2018, there is too much competition here for any driver to put together a stretch of Tiger-esque dominance.

In 2005-2006 we might suppose Alonso was superior to Schumacher but it isn't clear.

In 2007 Alonso was equalled, but on the verge of being clearly outdone, by Hamilton.

From 2010-2013, Vettel can be argued to have been the best for a couple of those years, and this isn't unusual even if he is seen as inferior to Alonso and Hamilton overall. This is something which happens plenty often in sports. Jim Courier was no Agassi or Sampras, yet achieved 4 Slams and a year as year-end #1 while competing against them, and Sampras is a tennis ATG. Courier was on balance the best player from 1991-1993. He was also clearly a better clay court player than both Agassi or Sampras. Sometimes conditions and opportunity align and Vettel had his time in the sun. He may have been legitimately the best during the period.

Hamilton was possibly best in 2010, Alonso in 2012, though Hamilton was also hugely impressive, and Vettel in 2011 and 2013, though Alonso was hugely impressive.

Some argue that Vettel was the best thing going in 2015 too, which gives him 1-3 years as the best during the proposed period, which isn't super ATG stuff but it is very commendable, making him the equivalent of someone like Stefan Edberg in tennis. Hugely respected but not remotely in the running for being a "GOAT candidate".

2014-2018 saw Alonso in uncompetitive machinary and Hamilton in dominant machinary.

Generally it's hard to make judgments for this era, but the previous evidence already abundantly suggested that the contenders were too close to establish any sustained dominance against the other.

To achieve dominance in a tightly controlled meritocracy, you need to have great talent and convenient timing. The sportsperson needs a great window of opportunity and to have the talent advantage to the extent where they can achieve dominance, which means either being extraordinarily talented, enjoying a weak (or less strong) era, or both.

If, for argument's sake, Vettel deserved 2 years as #1 from 2005-2018, maybe Schumacher deserved 1, Ricciardo 1, Hamilton more than 3, Alonso more than 4... not sure about 2008-2009 - memory fades. Maybe you could give a year to Kimi (2007) --- dunno. You guys can arrive to better judgments but hopefully the point has been made.

With such competitive contemporaries it's very difficult to establish dominance.

If, say, Leclerc or Russell or Norris don't end up being something close to Verstappen as Hamilton was to Alonso, then with some drops of luck Verstappen could end up in a position to dominate and the question might be: will he have 10+ years before an Alonso type comes along ala Schumacher or will the next 'transcendent talent' rise in the middle of his pomp.

But in any case, as fun as all this discussion is, the reality is that Verstappen will have to deal with Hamilton for a very substantial part of his prime. It would be damning if we don't get to see this battle in a more direct confrontation during their time together as competitors.

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by Option or Prime »

Nice chronological summary, its hard not to agree with the conclusion. I might add that the other key element to domination by Leclerc or Verstappen is a dominant car. Which neither currently have!

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Re: Calling it now: Hamilton's records will never be broken

Post by KingVoid »

Invade wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:34 pm
But in any case, as fun as all this discussion is, the reality is that Verstappen will have to deal with Hamilton for a very substantial part of his prime. It would be damning if we don't get to see this battle in a more direct confrontation during their time together as competitors.
I have been waiting for a prolonged Verstappen vs Hamilton battle since 2016 now and it still hasn't come. Waiting for a Verstappen vs Hamilton battle is like waiting for Alonso's 3rd WDC. Everyone thinks that it's inevitable, and then it never actually happens.

At this point I am expecting Mercedes to dominate until Hamilton retires. Formula 1 has been letting me down for years now, so at this point my expectations are basically zero. I will be amazed if anything interesting happens in the next few years.

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