Who will claim 4th in the WDC?

[UnlikeUday]

Source - Imgur

9 points separates these 6 drivers with 7 races to go. What an exciting battle to finish 'Best of the rest'!

[Exediron]

Tougher question than I expected it to be.

On the one hand, it should be Albon. His teammate is locked into 3rd, and that means he's driving the only car that -- without question -- is capable of claiming fourth in the right hands.

But on the other hand, the Racing Point may actually be the 2nd-best car this year, in which case it should be one of their drivers -- Stroll, specifically, since he's clearly being treated as their #1 driver.

But on the final hand, Ricciardo has a pretty decent car under him, and is a better driver than the above candidates. On that basis, a full season may well favor him on balance.

The two left out for me are Norris and Leclerc. The Ferrari car simply doesn't look good enough for Charles, and I think Norris is still riding a fairly decent spike of early-season points to get where he is.

Obviously, as a McLaren fan I'd like it to be Norris. But I think on balance I'm going to select Danny Ric. The Renault seems to be getting better as the season progresses, and he's got the edge in terms of ability on the only candidates I think are in better cars.

[Jezza13]

Tougher question than I expected it to be.

On the one hand, it should be Albon. His teammate is locked into 3rd, and that means he's driving the only car that -- without question -- is capable of claiming fourth in the right hands.

But on the other hand, the Racing Point may actually be the 2nd-best car this year, in which case it should be one of their drivers -- Stroll, specifically, since he's clearly being treated as their #1 driver.

But on the final hand, Ricciardo has a pretty decent car under him, and is a better driver than the above candidates. On that basis, a full season may well favor him on balance.

The two left out for me are Norris and Leclerc. The Ferrari car simply doesn't look good enough for Charles, and I think Norris is still riding a fairly decent spike of early-season points to get where he is.

Obviously, as a McLaren fan I'd like it to be Norris. But I think on balance I'm going to select Danny Ric. The Renault seems to be getting better as the season progresses, and he's got the edge in terms of ability on the only candidates I think are in better cars.

For mine that's a pretty spot on assessment

[Schermerhorn]

Have the Racing Point drivers maximised their RP20?

I would have thought that 4th (heck even 3rd) would have been a lock in for them once it became apparent that Albon's confidence had been buried.

Also, am I correct in thinking that in 2021, the Racing Point will effectively be an updated 2019 Mercedes W10 with a 2020 Mercedes W11 rear suspension and a brand new 2021 spec Mercedes engine in the back?

Unless Red Bull absolutely flop next year with their 2021 Honda engine, I would be very disappointed if the Racing Point drivers were not in 3rd spot and regular podium challengers.

To be honest I've been disappointed with both Perez and Stroll this year; they have not maximised that RP20 at all.

[TheGiantHogweed]

I think Stroll has probably been the most unlucky of these drivers and probably has missed around 25 points due to DNFs. I don't think he has been fully maximising the car, but I think 4th in the standings is realistic for him and he would quite possibly be there just without his retirement last race. With a likely podium or 4th place the race before and the tail end of the points in Austria, he deserves to have at least 80 points. But yea, he could have done better in several races.

If things continue the way they have been, but Stroll's luck improves a bit, i think it is probably most likely to be him. I don't think this car has ever been 2nd best though. But I do think he's doing much better than Albon this year.

[Paolo_Lasardi]

For Perez, Albon, and Stroll, not finishing 4th will be a failure. For anyone else, finishing 4th will be a huge achievement.

[TheGiantHogweed]

For Perez, Albon, and Stroll, not finishing 4th will be a failure. For anyone else, finishing 4th will be a huge achievement.

they can't all finish 4th... What it looks like you are saying is that it is guaranteed that two of these drivers will be a failure.

[Paolo_Lasardi]

For Perez, Albon, and Stroll, not finishing 4th will be a failure. For anyone else, finishing 4th will be a huge achievement.

they can't all finish 4th... What it looks like you are saying is that it is guaranteed that two of these drivers will be a failure.

Yes.

[mikeyg123]

I think Stroll has probably been the most unlucky of these drivers and probably has missed around 25 points due to DNFs. I don't think he has been fully maximising the car, but I think 4th in the standings is realistic for him and he would quite possibly be there just without his retirement last race. With a likely podium or 4th place the race before and the tail end of the points in Austria, he deserves to have at least 80 points. But yea, he could have done better in several races.

If things continue the way they have been, but Stroll's luck improves a bit, i think it is probably most likely to be him. I don't think this car has ever been 2nd best though. But I do think he's doing much better than Albon this year.

Stroll gained at least 10 points from good fortune in Monza and another handful when he should have been penalised in Austria.

He's had bad luck but has also had good luck as well.

Perez lost 11 points in Monza through bad luck and has scored an average of 7 points a race so that's 14 from the two missed races. He hasn't had any instances of real good fortune like Stroll either.

I think Renault seems to be improving and Ricciardo is a good enough driver to make the difference.

[Schumacher forever#1]

For Perez, Albon, and Stroll, not finishing 4th will be a failure. For anyone else, finishing 4th will be a huge achievement.

they can't all finish 4th... What it looks like you are saying is that it is guaranteed that two of these drivers will be a failure.

Yes.

I agree.

Albon may not be in the second fastest car, but he is in a top team - and should be making up any car differential and be putting himself fourth.

Perez should beat Stroll in order to still be considered a high-quality tier 2 driver. He also should beat a struggling Albon to fourth.

Stroll should beat Perez because of his net two race advantage due to Perez' covid-19 period. He also should demonstrate that he should be the one kept on by Aston Martin, rather than Perez.

I think, with Renault's progression, and Ricciardo's ability, Daniel will finish 4th.

[Mort Canard]

Updated points after the Eifel GP:
4 Daniel Ricciardo - 78
5 Sergio Perez - 68
6 Lando Norris - 65
7 Alex Albon - 64
8 Charles Leclerc - 63
9 Lance Stroll - 57


Danny has already climbed up into the 4th spot in the standings and I don't see anyone of the other contenders taking it away from him unless he has some real misfortunes. Danny has bee putting in strong runs for the last five races and looks to be able to keep it up in the future.

[kleefton]

Ferrari is in a bad way but they are showing signs of improving. Leclerc actually split the Redbulls in qualifying for christ's sake. I know it's Albon driving the second Redbull, but still. There could be some more improvements in race pace from Ferrari, and with the huge resources they have at their disposal they may become the class of the midfield pretty soon, even with the dog engine. And if that is the case Leclerc will beat out Ricc to 4th imo. He has really impressed me this year.

[Schermerhorn]

Leclrec is awesome in qualifying but that SF90 does tend to go backwards. Yesterday it was 2 seconds a lap slower than Dan Ric once he got passed by the Renault.

He was also lucky with the retirements of Ocon, Bottas, Albon and Norris as that car was only really good enough for 10th yesterday.

So I do expect Charles to tumble down the order but strangely I do expect Albon to get 4th or 5th. That car is still too quick for many.

[BMWSauber84]

Astonishingly really Charles Leclerc is just 5 points shy of that fourth position now.

4 Daniel Ricciardo 80
5 Charles Leclerc 75
6 Sergio Perez 74
7 Lando Norris 65
8 Alexander Albon 64
9 Pierre Gasly 63
10 Carlos Sainz. 59
11 Lance Stroll. 57

Those are the drivers I consider to still be in contention for it. I don't quite think Gasly has the car to do it, and I don't think Stroll is going to outscore Perez over the remaining races even if the Racing Point is strong on other tracks.

Prior to Portugal, Renault have been decent pretty much everywhere so Ricciardo has to remain favourite. I suspect Leclerc will get it done though. The recent Ferrari improvements are paying dividends and I suspect Imola will suit them.

Albon is 16 points behind and in by far the strongest car of this pack. It's testament to the kind of season he's having that very few fancy him to do it now.

[Mort Canard]

Stroll, Norris & Albon have certainly lost momentum in the last several races. Heck, Stroll might as well not have shown up for the last four weekends.

Ricciardo, Gasly and Leclerc all have posted strong results recently

[Mort Canard]

Points update after Imola:
4. Daniel Ricciardo - 95
5. Charles Leclerc - 85
6. Sergio Perez - 82
7. Lando Norris McLaren - 69
8. Carlos Sainz McLaren - 65
9. Alex Albon Red Bull - 64
10. Pierre Gasly - 63

Looks like the fight is for seventh place right now.

[JN23]

RIght now I'd vote Ricciardo for fourth and Albon for seventh.

[TheGiantHogweed]

Stroll, Norris & Albon have certainly lost momentum in the last several races. Heck, Stroll might as well not have shown up for the last four weekends.

Ricciardo, Gasly and Leclerc all have posted strong results recently

I know Stroll has messed up even more since you posted this, but still, is your post not a bit harsh? From what we did see of Stroll in two of the 4 weekends you are on about in the race, he was excellent, but retired in both. Tuscany he was pretty much set for a podium. In Russia, he had a poor start, but then recovered by building up 8 places on lap 1 and got rigth behind Perez and had Leclerc not taken him out, he likely could have got Perez judging from his initial pace and strategy advantage and claimed 4th that race. Or at least 5th. Anyway, I think the points over the past 5 races for Perez VS Stroll should be around what it is for Perez but at least 25 - 30 for Stroll. And that is not including his latest two races which were admittedly poor. Just give Stroll 20 points and he would be now 2 points off 7th place and he probably has had the worst luck of most of these drivers in this battle.

Over the last 5 races, Peres has got 48 and Stroll has got 0. That looks shocking for Stroll, and even his result I am thinking is fair isn't great, but the statistics are much worse than he's actually been. Regarding this fight to 7th we are discussing, I don't think Stroll is totally out of it.

[mikeyg123]

Stroll, Norris & Albon have certainly lost momentum in the last several races. Heck, Stroll might as well not have shown up for the last four weekends.

Ricciardo, Gasly and Leclerc all have posted strong results recently

I know Stroll has messed up even more since you posted this, but still, is your post not a bit harsh? From what we did see of Stroll in two of the 4 weekends you are on about in the race, he was excellent, but retired in both. Tuscany he was pretty much set for a podium. In Russia, he had a poor start, but then recovered by building up 8 places on lap 1 and got rigth behind Perez and had Leclerc not taken him out, he likely could have got Perez judging from his initial pace and strategy advantage and claimed 4th that race. Or at least 5th. Anyway, I think the points over the past 5 races for Perez VS Stroll should be around what it is for Perez but at least 25 - 30 for Stroll. And that is not including his latest two races which were admittedly poor. Just give Stroll 20 points and he would be now 2 points off 7th place and he probably has had the worst luck of most of these drivers in this battle.

Over the last 5 races, Peres has got 48 and Stroll has got 0. That looks shocking for Stroll, and even his result I am thinking is fair isn't great, but the statistics are much worse than he's actually been. Regarding this fight to 7th we are discussing, I don't think Stroll is totally out of it.

If you corrected for luck the gap between Perez and Stroll would be even bigger than it is now so I would take the conversation down that road if you want Lance to look good.

[TheGiantHogweed]

Stroll, Norris & Albon have certainly lost momentum in the last several races. Heck, Stroll might as well not have shown up for the last four weekends.

Ricciardo, Gasly and Leclerc all have posted strong results recently

I know Stroll has messed up even more since you posted this, but still, is your post not a bit harsh? From what we did see of Stroll in two of the 4 weekends you are on about in the race, he was excellent, but retired in both. Tuscany he was pretty much set for a podium. In Russia, he had a poor start, but then recovered by building up 8 places on lap 1 and got rigth behind Perez and had Leclerc not taken him out, he likely could have got Perez judging from his initial pace and strategy advantage and claimed 4th that race. Or at least 5th. Anyway, I think the points over the past 5 races for Perez VS Stroll should be around what it is for Perez but at least 25 - 30 for Stroll. And that is not including his latest two races which were admittedly poor. Just give Stroll 20 points and he would be now 2 points off 7th place and he probably has had the worst luck of most of these drivers in this battle.

Over the last 5 races, Peres has got 48 and Stroll has got 0. That looks shocking for Stroll, and even his result I am thinking is fair isn't great, but the statistics are much worse than he's actually been. Regarding this fight to 7th we are discussing, I don't think Stroll is totally out of it.

If you corrected for luck the gap between Perez and Stroll would be even bigger than it is now so I would take the conversation down that road if you want Lance to look good.

Well, Perez suffered bad luck by missing the two british races (though it basically was likely triggered by his own poor actions) and likely lost around 15 or so points in Italy. Not sure how well he would have done in Britain. I think 5th was the best he could have done. If I was generous and gave him two 5th places there, then he's missed 35 points. But arguably, If I was more generous to Stoll, I do think he could have managed 3rd and 4th in Tuscany and Russia and I only considered him to be in the low end of the points in the eifel Grand prix Based on what Perez managed and his pace in previous races, I think he will have grabbed at least 8 points. As it happens, that is 35 too roughly. Now I've looked back more, I do think their amount of points lost is pretty much the same. I don't think Perez's luck has been worse this season and one reason I sympathise with him a little less was because of his actions before the British races which was likely the cause of his own loss.

So I do think the gap now is about representative of the difference between them overall.

[mikeyg123]

Stroll, Norris & Albon have certainly lost momentum in the last several races. Heck, Stroll might as well not have shown up for the last four weekends.

Ricciardo, Gasly and Leclerc all have posted strong results recently

I know Stroll has messed up even more since you posted this, but still, is your post not a bit harsh? From what we did see of Stroll in two of the 4 weekends you are on about in the race, he was excellent, but retired in both. Tuscany he was pretty much set for a podium. In Russia, he had a poor start, but then recovered by building up 8 places on lap 1 and got rigth behind Perez and had Leclerc not taken him out, he likely could have got Perez judging from his initial pace and strategy advantage and claimed 4th that race. Or at least 5th. Anyway, I think the points over the past 5 races for Perez VS Stroll should be around what it is for Perez but at least 25 - 30 for Stroll. And that is not including his latest two races which were admittedly poor. Just give Stroll 20 points and he would be now 2 points off 7th place and he probably has had the worst luck of most of these drivers in this battle.

Over the last 5 races, Peres has got 48 and Stroll has got 0. That looks shocking for Stroll, and even his result I am thinking is fair isn't great, but the statistics are much worse than he's actually been. Regarding this fight to 7th we are discussing, I don't think Stroll is totally out of it.

If you corrected for luck the gap between Perez and Stroll would be even bigger than it is now so I would take the conversation down that road if you want Lance to look good.

Well, Perez suffered bad luck by missing the two british races (though it basically was likely triggered by his own poor actions) and likely lost around 15 or so points in Italy. Not sure how well he would have done in Britain. I think 5th was the best he could have done. If I was generous and gave him two 5th places there, then he's missed 35 points. But arguably, If I was more generous to Stoll, I do think he could have managed 3rd and 4th in Tuscany and Russia and I only considered him to be in the low end of the points in the eifel Grand prix Based on what Perez managed and his pace in previous races, I think he will have grabbed at least 8 points. As it happens, that is 35 too roughly. Now I've looked back more, I do think their amount of points lost is pretty much the same. I don't think Perez's luck has been worse this season and one reason I sympathise with him a little less was because of his actions before the British races which was likely the cause of his own loss.

So I do think the gap now is about representative of the difference between them overall.

Also worth remembering Perez lost a lot of points in Monza through bad luck as well and has lost out due to bad strategy calls in Austria (that could genuinely have been a win), Spa and Imola.

He also had an inferior car to Stroll in Mugello and Sochi.

[DOLOMITE]

I think Ricciardo will keep it.

1. HAM: 369
2. BOT: 263
3. VER: 234
4. RIC: 127
5. LEC: 119
6. PER: 112
7. NOR: 94

[Mort Canard]

I think Ricciardo will keep it.

1. HAM: 369
2. BOT: 263
3. VER: 234
4. RIC: 127
5. LEC: 119
6. PER: 112
7. NOR: 94

This is your projection for the season's final point totals???

[Mort Canard]

After Turkey things have gotten interesting:
4 Sergio Perez - 100
5 Charles Leclerc - 97
6 Daniel Ricciardo - 96
7 Carlos Sainz - 75
8 Lando Norris - 74
9 Alex Albon - 70
10 Pierre Gasly - 63

Daniel has fallen from fourth to sixth in one weekend.
Checko has gained two positions and Charles has gained one.
Still a tight three way battle for fourth and another for seventh between the McLaren boys.

A maximum of 78 points is still up for grabs although the way Lewis has been driving I don't see anyone but Lewis being able to max out the awarded points available.

[Deep_blue]

I would bet checo, he has 2 races less than the rest, so he has comfortably scored more points per race than his competitors, so if this tendency continues in the last races he should be able to retain his recently gained 4th place

[Invade]

It had better be Perez in what has been the 3rd best car this season. Well it had better be Albon in that case. But we can just dismiss the notion - his position is abundantly poor given his opportunity and he is by far the worst performer of the listed contenders.

[UnlikeUday]

The points ould've been more for Checo & lesser for Ricciardo had RP not screwed the pit strategy at Imola.

In hindsight, Checo literally drove 2 brilliant races back to back where he could've been on the podium.

[Schermerhorn]

Perez

Sainz could have been up there too.

[Mort Canard]

After the Bahrain GP the standings are as follows:
4 Daniel Ricciardo Renault 102
5 Sergio Perez Racing Point 100
6 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 98
7 Lando Norris McLaren 86
8 Carlos Sainz McLaren 85
9 Alex Albon Red Bull 85
10 Pierre Gasly AlphaTauri 71

Due to Checo's retirement Daniel has caught him for fourth.
Charles has sole posession of 6th.
Still a good three way battle for 7th between Norris, Sainz and Albon. Albon has the car to win that fight, but will he?

[Invade]

Perez is still favourite to win this battle, even if Albon maximises his potential in the Red Bull.

[Schumacher forever#1]

Perez is still favourite to win this battle, even if Albon maximises his potential in the Red Bull.

With all the weight Albon put on I don't think he'll have the pace to challenge for 4th.

[Mort Canard]

Perez is still favourite to win this battle, even if Albon maximises his potential in the Red Bull.

With all the weight Albon put on I don't think he'll have the pace to challenge for 4th.

[Invade]

Perez is still favourite to win this battle, even if Albon maximises his potential in the Red Bull.

With all the weight Albon put on I don't think he'll have the pace to challenge for 4th.

All things considered, he's wringing the neck out of that car, despite his neck ballast.

[Mort Canard]

Well, the WDC points going into the last round for the fourth position are as follows:

4 Sergio Perez Racing Point 125
5 Daniel Ricciardo Renault 112
6 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 98
7 Carlos Sainz McLaren 97
8 Alex Albon Red Bull 93
9 Lando Norris McLaren 87
10 Lance Stroll Racing Point 74
11 Pierre Gasly AlphaTauri 71

With the exception of the battle for seventh and tenth, things have pretty much settled into place. Not much chance any more for anyone to move up or down more than one or two spots.

Looks like Sergio will be hard to beat for the fourth position even though he will be starting from the back of the grid. Daniel would either need to finish 4th with the fastest lap or 3rd to have a chance.

Kudos to Checo if he holds onto 4th. With seven races to go he was in ninth place in the WDC. He kept pushing and In spite of flaming out at last weeks race in Bahrain he has otherwise consistently gained points.

Personally I would like to see Carlos overtake Charles just to set things up for next year.

[Mort Canard]

Final Standings for the year.
4 Sergio Perez Racing Point 125
5 Daniel Ricciardo Renault 119
6 Carlos Sainz McLaren 105
7 Alex Albon Red Bull 105
8 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 98
9 Lando Norris McLaren 97
10 Pierre Gasly AlphaTauri 75
11 Lance Stroll Racing Point 75

There were two tie breakers this year. Carlos Sainz beat Alex Albon by virtue of his second at Monza vrs Alex's 3rd at Bahrain. Pierre took tenth place with his win at Monza over Lance Stroll's best finish of third at Monza and Sakhir.

Some pretty decent mid-field racing this year.

[Schermerhorn]

Charles beat Norris? Wow.....