Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

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Red Bul 2021

Albon
9
17%
Gasly
8
15%
Hulkenberg
18
35%
Perez
13
25%
Other (specify)
4
8%
 
Total votes: 52

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DOLOMITE
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Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by DOLOMITE »

So assuming Max is staying

Who would sign and why?

'Other' has to be a driver we know to be available.
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Covalent
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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Covalent »

Here the results were almost unanimously "Other", albeit without specific options for Hulk and Perez.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by JN23 »

I’ve voted Hulkenberg, although him or Perez would be good signings for them.

Albon - I think we’ve seen enough now to conclude he’s not at the level required unfortunately. A shame as I like him, i hope he gets a seat elsewhere.

Gasly - if he went back to Red Bull and was beaten convincingly again it would be even harder to come back from than the first time. If I was him I’d look to see if I could leave the Red Bull family to further his career.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by mikeyg123 »

Perez for the second seat on a 1+1 contract to bench mark what a decent driver should look like alongside Verstappen. Then I'd put Tsunoda and the best rookie I could lay my hands on in the Alpha Tauri seat.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by JN23 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:12 pm
Perez for the second seat on a 1+1 contract to bench mark what a decent driver should look like alongside Verstappen. Then I'd put Tsunoda and the best rookie I could lay my hands on in the Alpha Tauri seat.
Would there be a problem in that Tsunoda and the rookie wouldn’t be benchmarked against anyone with F1 experience? If Tsunoda was benchmarked against Gasly/Kvyat/Albon then we would know how we could reasonably expect him to do against Verstappen.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Schumacher forever#1 »

Voting Hulkenberg over Perez because I think qualifying is more important to consider than overall race pace and craft for Red Bull 2021.

Let Albon and Gasly duke it out in Alpha Tauri, allowing us to determine which is the better driver for the more important 2022 and beyond. If Hulkenberg proves capable of keeping up with Verstappen, then that could be a signal that both Alpha Tauri drivers are just not good enough.
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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by yodasarmpit »

Voting Hulk, to fulfill the Bottas type role for the team. Will be consistently strong without taking points away from Max - the type of role that will consolidate team points.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by mikeyg123 »

JN23 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:18 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:12 pm
Perez for the second seat on a 1+1 contract to bench mark what a decent driver should look like alongside Verstappen. Then I'd put Tsunoda and the best rookie I could lay my hands on in the Alpha Tauri seat.
Would there be a problem in that Tsunoda and the rookie wouldn’t be benchmarked against anyone with F1 experience? If Tsunoda was benchmarked against Gasly/Kvyat/Albon then we would know how we could reasonably expect him to do against Verstappen.
Red Bull tend to do well out of introducing two rookies together. It has largely been there MO. I.E Vergne/Ricciardo and Verstappen/Sainz. After two years just promote the best one and bin off the other.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Rockie »

Albon no point with the others as I don't consider them an improvement, I mean Perez is currently not putting Stroll away nor Ocon, so wont be different to Albon.

Also as much as Hulk is likeable there is a reason he does not have a podium let alone a win to his name, and its not because he's not had the car to do it.

As for Gasly Redbull have the data on him regardless of the Monza win, with that knowledge they still dropped him tells you what you need to know.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Harpo »

One ready to commit a career suicide...

The only hope for RBR very secondary driver, is that Verstappen is already too old to become the "youngest ever WDC" that the publicists were longing for. He will soon go elsewhere or be replaced by the next best advertising wonder they will imagine (the first Asian or African WDC - it's over for drivers from other continents - the first ever woman to win a F1 race, the first ever prepubescent F1 driver, the first androïd to ever compete a whole season... Add something stupid, it may happen).
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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by tootsie323 »

Harpo wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:04 pm
One ready to commit a career suicide...

The only hope for RBR very secondary driver, is that Verstappen is already too old to become the "youngest ever WDC" that the publicists were longing for. He will soon go elsewhere or be replaced by the next best advertising wonder they will imagine (the first Asian or African WDC - it's over for drivers from other continents - the first ever woman to win a F1 race, the first ever prepubescent F1 driver, the first androïd to ever compete a whole season... Add something stupid, it may happen).
Perhaps a male cow. Just need to decide a colour...

Edit: On a more serious note - I think that it will be a toss up between Albon and Gasly for 2021. Depending on whether they promote Tsunoda (or someone) from a feeder series, it's possible that Kvyat may be on his way out.
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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Harpo »

tootsie323 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:07 pm
Harpo wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:04 pm
One ready to commit a career suicide...

The only hope for RBR very secondary driver, is that Verstappen is already too old to become the "youngest ever WDC" that the publicists were longing for. He will soon go elsewhere or be replaced by the next best advertising wonder they will imagine (the first Asian or African WDC - it's over for drivers from other continents - the first ever woman to win a F1 race, the first ever prepubescent F1 driver, the first androïd to ever compete a whole season... Add something stupid, it may happen).
Perhaps a male cow. Just need to decide a colour...
It's too big to enter the cockpit. A sirloin would but it's not a complete driver.
As my brother said : "I've got the brain of a four year old. I'll bet he was glad to be rid of it".

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by pokerman »

Gasly because if they sign either Perez or the Hulk then potentially that could be the end of their junior program, if either Perez or Hulk do a good job then when are they going to risk promoting a junior driver?

It took Webber to retire for Ricciardo to get his chance otherwise would Ricciardo have ended up in FE like Vergne?
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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Jenson's Understeer »

I've said all along that I would sign Perez. I rate him slightly above Hulkenberg, and even if you say they're very, very similar, he brings with him both significant financial backing and a whole host of sponsorship opportunities for Red Bull in Latin America. I'd then drop Albon back down to AlphaTauri and turf Kvyat, running Verstappen/Perez and Albon/Gasly. This has three main positives:

1) Perez wouldn't be under the same kind of pressure that Albon/Gasly were alongside Max. He's already established himself in F1 so a couple of bad results wouldn't necessarily begin the sort of endless spiral Gasly went on. I also think he would still be far enough behind Max that there wouldn't be a repeat of the issues he had with Ocon where they kept ending up on the same part of the track at the same time.

2) Putting Albon and Gasly alongside each other for a year is the perfect way to directly compare them. I would run the same upgrades for them throughout the season so neither ever has a car advantage and run the same strategies wherever possible. Get as much of a direct comparison between the two as you can ahead of potentially promoting one back to Red Bull for 2022. Which would be easier to judge because...

3) We know what Perez is. In this year's Red Bull I would expect him to be qualifying just behind Max on the grid, in the gap that is usually there between Max in 3rd and the rest of the field. And then I would expect Max to be quicker across the race, but Perez to be consistent enough to pick up podiums when either Max or the Mercedes finish outside the top 3. If you put Perez alongside Max then you can compare his performance to Verstappen to Albon/Gasly's performance. If Perez is about the same distance off of Max then there is an argument that Albon deserves more credit for his performances this year, and if Perez is a lot closer (we're talking hypothetically here, rather than with any real expectation) then either Perez is a lot better than we realise and/or Albon/Gasly are worse than their performances suggest.

...and I've typed all that knowing it will not happen!

It'll be Max and Albon at Red Bull, Gasly and Tsunoda at AlphaTauri.
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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by pokerman »

Jenson's Understeer wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:27 pm
I've said all along that I would sign Perez. I rate him slightly above Hulkenberg, and even if you say they're very, very similar, he brings with him both significant financial backing and a whole host of sponsorship opportunities for Red Bull in Latin America. I'd then drop Albon back down to AlphaTauri and turf Kvyat, running Verstappen/Perez and Albon/Gasly. This has three main positives:

1) Perez wouldn't be under the same kind of pressure that Albon/Gasly were alongside Max. He's already established himself in F1 so a couple of bad results wouldn't necessarily begin the sort of endless spiral Gasly went on. I also think he would still be far enough behind Max that there wouldn't be a repeat of the issues he had with Ocon where they kept ending up on the same part of the track at the same time.

2) Putting Albon and Gasly alongside each other for a year is the perfect way to directly compare them. I would run the same upgrades for them throughout the season so neither ever has a car advantage and run the same strategies wherever possible. Get as much of a direct comparison between the two as you can ahead of potentially promoting one back to Red Bull for 2022. Which would be easier to judge because...

3) We know what Perez is. In this year's Red Bull I would expect him to be qualifying just behind Max on the grid, in the gap that is usually there between Max in 3rd and the rest of the field. And then I would expect Max to be quicker across the race, but Perez to be consistent enough to pick up podiums when either Max or the Mercedes finish outside the top 3. If you put Perez alongside Max then you can compare his performance to Verstappen to Albon/Gasly's performance. If Perez is about the same distance off of Max then there is an argument that Albon deserves more credit for his performances this year, and if Perez is a lot closer (we're talking hypothetically here, rather than with any real expectation) then either Perez is a lot better than we realise and/or Albon/Gasly are worse than their performances suggest.

...and I've typed all that knowing it will not happen!

It'll be Max and Albon at Red Bull, Gasly and Tsunoda at AlphaTauri.
I would say that if Tsunoda gets his super license then he's in the AT, so if Red Bull sign Perez then that's Albon gone from F1.
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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Harpo »

[quote="tootsie323
Edit: On a more serious note - I think that it will be a toss up between Albon and Gasly for 2021. Depending on whether they promote Tsunoda (or someone) from a feeder series, it's possible that Kvyat may be on his way out.
[/quote]

You may have noticed that I don't really take RBR drivers policy seriously. What I can wish to any driver, not just the very good ones, is to not be "promoted" to Red Bull secondary seat.
The only one who was not "neglected" is Ricciardo, and, surprise surprise, this stroke of luck happened the year Vettel signs elsewhere for the next season.
The only chance of the secondary driver is that they learn that Verstappen is aiming to the stage-door.
As my brother said : "I've got the brain of a four year old. I'll bet he was glad to be rid of it".

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by FrogInARaceCar »

Voted Albon, despite how much I'd like to see Perez get a drive in a frontrunning car.

I think Red Bull need to pick their driver and put some faith in them. Gasly's problems were bigger than Albon's - the pace was similar, but Gasly tended to get stuck behind midfield cars, unable to pass (this featured heavily in the Drive to Survive episode on Gasly), while Albon has developed his trademark round-the-outside move which is risky but usually works. They know the car is tough to drive, and I think they should work on getting it to work for Albon.
You may have noticed that I don't really take RBR drivers policy seriously. What I can wish to any driver, not just the very good ones, is to not be "promoted" to Red Bull secondary seat.
The only one who was not "neglected" is Ricciardo, and, surprise surprise, this stroke of luck happened the year Vettel signs elsewhere for the next season.
The only chance of the secondary driver is that they learn that Verstappen is aiming to the stage-door.
Yeah, it has seemed to me for a good while now that nobody should actually want to be the 'other' Red Bull driver.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by KingVoid »

Perez for purely selfish purposes

We know based on 2013 that Perez and Button are dead even in qualifying, so Perez vs Verstappen will give us a good indication of how Verstappen stacks up against Hamilton on ultimate pace.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

KingVoid wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:01 am
Perez for purely selfish purposes

We know based on 2013 that Perez and Button are dead even in qualifying, so Perez vs Verstappen will give us a good indication of how Verstappen stacks up against Hamilton on ultimate pace.
Basing on a season 7 years ago and even longer if you go back to Hamilton vs Button. I don't think Hamilton and Perez are exactly like they used to be nearly 10 years ago....

We obviously can't confirm anything, but I think in recent years, when Perez had been against Ocon, then Stroll when he was awful in qualifying, Perez is quite possibly getting worse over 1 lap. He was pretty even with Ocon and then had no challenge with Stroll - and now isn't looking a great deal better than Stroll in qualifying, and seems to have overall been a bit behind Stroll in terms of season performance so far this year. I'm not convinced Perez is as good as he was now. Still certainly good enough to be in F1, but I don't think we can base his pace on previous seasons as evidence for that much.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by mikeyg123 »

We can already get the Verstappen/Hamilton comparison -

Verstappen - Ricciardo - Vettel - Raikkonen - Massa - Bottas - Hamilton

Or

Verstappen - Sainz - Hulkenberg - Palmer - Magnussen - Grosjean - Maldanado - Bottas - Hamilton

Or

Verstappen - Ricciardo - Vettel - Webber - Heidfeld - Frentzen - Trulli - Kovalainen - Hamilton

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Barkilphedro »

Can't see much option other than Albon.

Apart from (as I've indicated on another thread) the apparent fact that the "second" Red Bull driver doesn't seem to do well, no matter who the "no. 1" is, the only people on the original list who are (I think) Red Bull Juniors are Albon and Gasly. Unless you add Kvyat (I'll discount Sainz for obvious reasons). And if you don't pick a Red Bull Junior to fill the seat, then it's an admission that the programme is basically broken imho.

I can't see Red Bull doing that.

Gasly and Kvyat have both had their chances in the "big" team and for whatever reason, didn't seem to fit. Albon is a difficult fit there, I have no doubt, but he's probably the only choice they've got unless they do take a risk on one of the AlphaTauri guys. But it would be a risk. And frankly if I were one of those guys, I'd say "No thanks" and look for a seat outside the Red Bull family when my contract ends.
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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by WHoff78 »

I find it quite interesting how many people think that hiring from the outside for Red Bull would be admitting failure in their driver program. Verstappen is clearly a pretty special talent and on pure pace hard to dispute that he is as good as any. I don’t think it is even particularly surprising that they may have to go outside of their driver program to find a team mate to compliment him and maximize the Red Bull performances from time to time. They still have two seats at AT where the next emerging talent can cut their teeth and it buys them a few years to get some experience before they have to take the step up.

But imagine they would stick with Albon at this point. I think it would be foolish to not properly evaluate other options though given they know a whole lot more about the differences between their drivers.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Schumacher forever#1 »

WHoff78 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:13 pm
I find it quite interesting how many people think that hiring from the outside for Red Bull would be admitting failure in their driver program. Verstappen is clearly a pretty special talent and on pure pace hard to dispute that he is as good as any. I don’t think it is even particularly surprising that they may have to go outside of their driver program to find a team mate to compliment him and maximize the Red Bull performances from time to time. They still have two seats at AT where the next emerging talent can cut their teeth and it buys them a few years to get some experience before they have to take the step up.

But imagine they would stick with Albon at this point. I think it would be foolish to not properly evaluate other options though given they know a whole lot more about the differences between their drivers.
I could br wrong, but is Verstappen actually from the junior Red Bull academy? Was he not snatched up by Red Bull at age 16/17?
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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by mikeyg123 »

Yes, I don't agree this idea that hiring from outside is an admission that there young driver programme is broken. Ferrari have a YDP but signed Sainz. Renault have one but signed Ricciardo then Ocon and then Alonso. Mercedes have had a YDP for years and yet have never put one of their young drivers in their cars for a race. Are all their programmes broken?

I think all it proves is that they don't have anyone good enough right now.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by JN23 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:00 pm
Yes, I don't agree this idea that hiring from outside is an admission that there young driver programme is broken. Ferrari have a YDP but signed Sainz. Renault have one but signed Ricciardo then Ocon and then Alonso. Mercedes have had a YDP for years and yet have never put one of their young drivers in their cars for a race. Are all their programmes broken?

I think all it proves is that they don't have anyone good enough right now.
I agree with you, but Renault and Mercedes have had a bit (not much) criticism for not giving any of their drivers a chance.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by mikeyg123 »

JN23 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:27 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:00 pm
Yes, I don't agree this idea that hiring from outside is an admission that there young driver programme is broken. Ferrari have a YDP but signed Sainz. Renault have one but signed Ricciardo then Ocon and then Alonso. Mercedes have had a YDP for years and yet have never put one of their young drivers in their cars for a race. Are all their programmes broken?

I think all it proves is that they don't have anyone good enough right now.
I agree with you, but Renault and Mercedes have had a bit (not much) criticism for not giving any of their drivers a chance.
Well, nobody could accuse Red Bull of that :lol: :lol:

I get it's a bit different with Red Bull as they have always been such prominent proponents of using the junior programme so it is a row back but I think right now nobody could blame them for taking someone else short term while they try and restock.

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by JN23 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:45 pm
JN23 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:27 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:00 pm
Yes, I don't agree this idea that hiring from outside is an admission that there young driver programme is broken. Ferrari have a YDP but signed Sainz. Renault have one but signed Ricciardo then Ocon and then Alonso. Mercedes have had a YDP for years and yet have never put one of their young drivers in their cars for a race. Are all their programmes broken?

I think all it proves is that they don't have anyone good enough right now.
I agree with you, but Renault and Mercedes have had a bit (not much) criticism for not giving any of their drivers a chance.
Well, nobody could accuse Red Bull of that :lol: :lol:

I get it's a bit different with Red Bull as they have always been such prominent proponents of using the junior programme so it is a row back but I think right now nobody could blame them for taking someone else short term while they try and restock.
Haha yes, a fair point :lol:

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Johnson »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:54 am
We can already get the Verstappen/Hamilton comparison -

Verstappen - Ricciardo - Vettel - Raikkonen - Massa - Bottas - Hamilton

Or

Verstappen - Sainz - Hulkenberg - Palmer - Magnussen - Grosjean - Maldanado - Bottas - Hamilton

Or

Verstappen - Ricciardo - Vettel - Webber - Heidfeld - Frentzen - Trulli - Kovalainen - Hamilton
There comes a point when the chain is so long it becomes kind of meaningless, you’re losing anywhere from -/+ 0.0 - 0.100 accuracy with each level (maybe more in some cases)

You can get comparisons between Hamilton and Senna, Prost, Piquet, Mansell, Lauda and Keke Rosberg with fewer steps...

Hamilton - Rosberg - Schumacher - Piquet - Mansell - Prost - Senna/Lauda

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Exediron »

Johnson wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:26 am
We can already get the Verstappen/Hamilton comparison -

Verstappen - Ricciardo - Vettel - Raikkonen - Massa - Bottas - Hamilton
This is the only one that holds any weight IMO. With the exception of Vettel/Ricciardo, every pair of teammates on the chain was partnered for multiple seasons, and we have a solid idea how they compare.

That said, the Vettel/Ricciardo link is a pretty important one for the chain, and it's the least reliable.
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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by FrogInARaceCar »

Exediron wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:55 am
Johnson wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:26 am
We can already get the Verstappen/Hamilton comparison -

Verstappen - Ricciardo - Vettel - Raikkonen - Massa - Bottas - Hamilton
This is the only one that holds any weight IMO. With the exception of Vettel/Ricciardo, every pair of teammates on the chain was partnered for multiple seasons, and we have a solid idea how they compare.

That said, the Vettel/Ricciardo link is a pretty important one for the chain, and it's the least reliable.
Even accepting the premise that a chain this long is useful (which I don't), it still doesn't really tell us much.

In his first 3 seasons in the sport, Verstappen was arguably* better than Ricciardo, who beat Vettel over one season while Seb was having a bit of a stinker. Vettel was clearly better than Kimi, who in 2007-2009 was about as good as Massa, who was worse than Bottas, who is worse than Hamilton.

So that doesn't really tell us anything about the relative quality of Verstappen and Hamilton because neither of them have ever been convincingly beaten by a teammate so we it doesn't give us an upper limit on their skills.

*In their races together during 2016 and 2017, Ricciardo scored more points with roughly the same number of races finished (+29 and +32), while in 2018 Verstappen scored 79 more but finished 4 more races (also note Baku incident).

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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by pokerman »

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:59 pm
WHoff78 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:13 pm
I find it quite interesting how many people think that hiring from the outside for Red Bull would be admitting failure in their driver program. Verstappen is clearly a pretty special talent and on pure pace hard to dispute that he is as good as any. I don’t think it is even particularly surprising that they may have to go outside of their driver program to find a team mate to compliment him and maximize the Red Bull performances from time to time. They still have two seats at AT where the next emerging talent can cut their teeth and it buys them a few years to get some experience before they have to take the step up.

But imagine they would stick with Albon at this point. I think it would be foolish to not properly evaluate other options though given they know a whole lot more about the differences between their drivers.
I could br wrong, but is Verstappen actually from the junior Red Bull academy? Was he not snatched up by Red Bull at age 16/17?
No he isn't, the Verstappens financed their own F3 campaign and then midseason he was signed to the STR team, of course they then emblazoned his F3 car with Red Bull stickers to say he was a junior driver.

Some make the argument that he was a Red Bull junior because he drove for STR, I say that's too late to be saying that he was in the junior program.
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Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Jezza13 »

FrogInARaceCar wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:15 am
while in 2018 Verstappen scored 79 more but finished 4 more races (also note Baku incident).
Also keep in mind that in addition to the retirements in 2018, Ricciardo also had grid penalties in:

Australia - 3 places - failing to slow down for red flag
Germany - 20 places - exceeding element quotas
Italy - 30 places - exceeding element quotas
Russia - 40 places - exceeding element quota (35) & unscheduled gearbox change (5)
Brazil - 5 places - turbo change

Total - 5 races - 98 grid places

Verstappen had
Russia - 43 places - exceeding element quota (35), unscheduled gearbox change (5) & yellow flag infringement (3)
USA - 5 places - unscheduled gearbox change

Total - 2 races - 48 grid places

All up, counting the races that had both grid penalties & retirements as one race, 2 for Ricciardo ( Germany, Italy), 0 for Verstappen, Ricciardo had race compromising issues in 11 of the 21 races that season while Verstappen had 6. Basically 10 trouble free races for Ricciardo, 15 for Verstappen.

So that means in the races they had that were retirement & penalty free that year, Ricciardo averaged 17 pts/race. Verstappen averaged 16.6 pts/race.

I think those points considered, as well as the team moving behind Verstappen & the media attention regarding his decision for 2019, Ricciardo was very, very close to Verstappen in 2018. A lot closer than some give him credit for.
Only took 7 yrs, 5 mths & 21 days.

Cooper, Arrows, Brabham, Ligier, Lotus, Tyrrell, Minardi, McLaren, Sauber, Williams,

Remember the garagista's. The heart & soul of F1. They raced to race.

2017 WCC CPTTC - Jalopy Racing (Herb & Me)

pokerman
Posts: 35327
Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm

Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by pokerman »

Jezza13 wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:04 pm
FrogInARaceCar wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:15 am
while in 2018 Verstappen scored 79 more but finished 4 more races (also note Baku incident).
Also keep in mind that in addition to the retirements in 2018, Ricciardo also had grid penalties in:

Australia - 3 places - failing to slow down for red flag
Germany - 20 places - exceeding element quotas
Italy - 30 places - exceeding element quotas
Russia - 40 places - exceeding element quota (35) & unscheduled gearbox change (5)
Brazil - 5 places - turbo change

Total - 5 races - 98 grid places

Verstappen had
Russia - 43 places - exceeding element quota (35), unscheduled gearbox change (5) & yellow flag infringement (3)
USA - 5 places - unscheduled gearbox change

Total - 2 races - 48 grid places

All up, counting the races that had both grid penalties & retirements as one race, 2 for Ricciardo ( Germany, Italy), 0 for Verstappen, Ricciardo had race compromising issues in 11 of the 21 races that season while Verstappen had 6. Basically 10 trouble free races for Ricciardo, 15 for Verstappen.

So that means in the races they had that were retirement & penalty free that year, Ricciardo averaged 17 pts/race. Verstappen averaged 16.6 pts/race.

I think those points considered, as well as the team moving behind Verstappen & the media attention regarding his decision for 2019, Ricciardo was very, very close to Verstappen in 2018. A lot closer than some give him credit for.
Verstappen was outqualifying Ricciardo more often than not, when Verstappen retired he normally was in front, when Ricciardo retired he normally was behind, to me it was obvious that Verstappen was the better driver.
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

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Badgeronimous
Posts: 881
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:57 am
Location: Scotland & Abu Dhabi

Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Badgeronimous »

Jezza13 wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:04 pm
FrogInARaceCar wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:15 am
while in 2018 Verstappen scored 79 more but finished 4 more races (also note Baku incident).
Also keep in mind that in addition to the retirements in 2018, Ricciardo also had grid penalties in:

Australia - 3 places - failing to slow down for red flag
Germany - 20 places - exceeding element quotas
Italy - 30 places - exceeding element quotas
Russia - 40 places - exceeding element quota (35) & unscheduled gearbox change (5)
Brazil - 5 places - turbo change

Total - 5 races - 98 grid places

Verstappen had
Russia - 43 places - exceeding element quota (35), unscheduled gearbox change (5) & yellow flag infringement (3)
USA - 5 places - unscheduled gearbox change

Total - 2 races - 48 grid places

All up, counting the races that had both grid penalties & retirements as one race, 2 for Ricciardo ( Germany, Italy), 0 for Verstappen, Ricciardo had race compromising issues in 11 of the 21 races that season while Verstappen had 6. Basically 10 trouble free races for Ricciardo, 15 for Verstappen.

So that means in the races they had that were retirement & penalty free that year, Ricciardo averaged 17 pts/race. Verstappen averaged 16.6 pts/race.

I think those points considered, as well as the team moving behind Verstappen & the media attention regarding his decision for 2019, Ricciardo was very, very close to Verstappen in 2018. A lot closer than some give him credit for.
Verstappen was quicker, but Ricciardo was better all round. However Max has improved, and I think probably is a clear half step ahead now.

However it was obvious Ricciardo was going to be Webber'd, so I agree with him leaving Red Bull.

User avatar
Jezza13
Posts: 2394
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Location: Far side of Koozebane

Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by Jezza13 »

pokerman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:16 pm
Jezza13 wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:04 pm
FrogInARaceCar wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:15 am
while in 2018 Verstappen scored 79 more but finished 4 more races (also note Baku incident).
Also keep in mind that in addition to the retirements in 2018, Ricciardo also had grid penalties in:

Australia - 3 places - failing to slow down for red flag
Germany - 20 places - exceeding element quotas
Italy - 30 places - exceeding element quotas
Russia - 40 places - exceeding element quota (35) & unscheduled gearbox change (5)
Brazil - 5 places - turbo change

Total - 5 races - 98 grid places

Verstappen had
Russia - 43 places - exceeding element quota (35), unscheduled gearbox change (5) & yellow flag infringement (3)
USA - 5 places - unscheduled gearbox change

Total - 2 races - 48 grid places

All up, counting the races that had both grid penalties & retirements as one race, 2 for Ricciardo ( Germany, Italy), 0 for Verstappen, Ricciardo had race compromising issues in 11 of the 21 races that season while Verstappen had 6. Basically 10 trouble free races for Ricciardo, 15 for Verstappen.

So that means in the races they had that were retirement & penalty free that year, Ricciardo averaged 17 pts/race. Verstappen averaged 16.6 pts/race.

I think those points considered, as well as the team moving behind Verstappen & the media attention regarding his decision for 2019, Ricciardo was very, very close to Verstappen in 2018. A lot closer than some give him credit for.
Verstappen was outqualifying Ricciardo more often than not, when Verstappen retired he normally was in front, when Ricciardo retired he normally was behind, to me it was obvious that Verstappen was the better driver.
Taking the whole season into account & the issues both drivers faced on & off the track, i'd agree if you said Verstappen was the faster driver though I'm not convinced he was the better driver.
Only took 7 yrs, 5 mths & 21 days.

Cooper, Arrows, Brabham, Ligier, Lotus, Tyrrell, Minardi, McLaren, Sauber, Williams,

Remember the garagista's. The heart & soul of F1. They raced to race.

2017 WCC CPTTC - Jalopy Racing (Herb & Me)

pokerman
Posts: 35327
Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm

Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by pokerman »

Jezza13 wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:35 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:16 pm
Jezza13 wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:04 pm
FrogInARaceCar wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:15 am
while in 2018 Verstappen scored 79 more but finished 4 more races (also note Baku incident).
Also keep in mind that in addition to the retirements in 2018, Ricciardo also had grid penalties in:

Australia - 3 places - failing to slow down for red flag
Germany - 20 places - exceeding element quotas
Italy - 30 places - exceeding element quotas
Russia - 40 places - exceeding element quota (35) & unscheduled gearbox change (5)
Brazil - 5 places - turbo change

Total - 5 races - 98 grid places

Verstappen had
Russia - 43 places - exceeding element quota (35), unscheduled gearbox change (5) & yellow flag infringement (3)
USA - 5 places - unscheduled gearbox change

Total - 2 races - 48 grid places

All up, counting the races that had both grid penalties & retirements as one race, 2 for Ricciardo ( Germany, Italy), 0 for Verstappen, Ricciardo had race compromising issues in 11 of the 21 races that season while Verstappen had 6. Basically 10 trouble free races for Ricciardo, 15 for Verstappen.

So that means in the races they had that were retirement & penalty free that year, Ricciardo averaged 17 pts/race. Verstappen averaged 16.6 pts/race.

I think those points considered, as well as the team moving behind Verstappen & the media attention regarding his decision for 2019, Ricciardo was very, very close to Verstappen in 2018. A lot closer than some give him credit for.
Verstappen was outqualifying Ricciardo more often than not, when Verstappen retired he normally was in front, when Ricciardo retired he normally was behind, to me it was obvious that Verstappen was the better driver.
Taking the whole season into account & the issues both drivers faced on & off the track, i'd agree if you said Verstappen was the faster driver though I'm not convinced he was the better driver.
Well given the legwork you've already kindly done, Ricciardo had 10 trouble free races, Verstappen had 15 trouble free races, we can measure the level of success rate and I will define that as finishing on the podium.

Ricciardo had 2 wins as opposed to Verstappen who had 2 wins and a further 9 podiums, so:-

Ricciardo 2/10 = 20% success rate.
Verstappen 11/15 = 73% success rate.

I would say that Verstappen was clearly the better driver.
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

FrogInARaceCar
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2020 1:18 pm

Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by FrogInARaceCar »

pokerman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:31 pm
Jezza13 wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:35 pm

Taking the whole season into account & the issues both drivers faced on & off the track, i'd agree if you said Verstappen was the faster driver though I'm not convinced he was the better driver.
Well given the legwork you've already kindly done, Ricciardo had 10 trouble free races, Verstappen had 15 trouble free races, we can measure the level of success rate and I will define that as finishing on the podium.

Ricciardo had 2 wins as opposed to Verstappen who had 2 wins and a further 9 podiums, so:-

Ricciardo 2/10 = 20% success rate.
Verstappen 11/15 = 73% success rate.

I would say that Verstappen was clearly the better driver.
Ricciardo finished 4th 7 times in 2018.

pokerman
Posts: 35327
Joined: Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:30 pm

Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by pokerman »

FrogInARaceCar wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 5:46 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:31 pm
Jezza13 wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:35 pm

Taking the whole season into account & the issues both drivers faced on & off the track, i'd agree if you said Verstappen was the faster driver though I'm not convinced he was the better driver.
Well given the legwork you've already kindly done, Ricciardo had 10 trouble free races, Verstappen had 15 trouble free races, we can measure the level of success rate and I will define that as finishing on the podium.

Ricciardo had 2 wins as opposed to Verstappen who had 2 wins and a further 9 podiums, so:-

Ricciardo 2/10 = 20% success rate.
Verstappen 11/15 = 73% success rate.

I would say that Verstappen was clearly the better driver.
Ricciardo finished 4th 7 times in 2018.
As opposed to Verstappen finishing 2nd/3rd 9 times, so a typical good finish would be Verstappen 2nd/3rd and Ricciardo 4th, Verstappen was better.
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

KingVoid
Posts: 2850
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2015 7:54 am

Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by KingVoid »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:54 am
We can already get the Verstappen/Hamilton comparison -

Verstappen - Ricciardo - Vettel - Raikkonen - Massa - Bottas - Hamilton
This chain suggests that Verstappen is quicker than Hamilton by about 0.200s, but admittedly the data is quite sensitive to Vettel-Ricciardo.
Verstappen - Sainz - Hulkenberg - Palmer - Magnussen - Grosjean - Maldanado - Bottas - Hamilton
Or
Verstappen - Ricciardo - Vettel - Webber - Heidfeld - Frentzen - Trulli - Kovalainen - Hamilton
I dislike these chains because it either includes rookie seasons, or it includes seasons with refueling which messes up the data.

There's also another chain that is in my opinion the most reliable of them all:

Verstappen - Ricciardo - Hulkenberg - Perez - Button - Hamilton

Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.170s
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg by 0.120s
Hulkenberg > Perez by 0.040s
Perez = Button
Hamilton > Button by 0.250s

I end up with Verstappen > Hamilton by 0.090s

mikeyg123
Posts: 17817
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2012 4:13 pm

Re: Red Bull 2021 - who would you sign?

Post by mikeyg123 »

KingVoid wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:02 am
mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:54 am
We can already get the Verstappen/Hamilton comparison -

Verstappen - Ricciardo - Vettel - Raikkonen - Massa - Bottas - Hamilton
This chain suggests that Verstappen is quicker than Hamilton by about 0.200s, but admittedly the data is quite sensitive to Vettel-Ricciardo.
Verstappen - Sainz - Hulkenberg - Palmer - Magnussen - Grosjean - Maldanado - Bottas - Hamilton
Or
Verstappen - Ricciardo - Vettel - Webber - Heidfeld - Frentzen - Trulli - Kovalainen - Hamilton
I dislike these chains because it either includes rookie seasons, or it includes seasons with refueling which messes up the data.

There's also another chain that is in my opinion the most reliable of them all:

Verstappen - Ricciardo - Hulkenberg - Perez - Button - Hamilton

Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.170s
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg by 0.120s
Hulkenberg > Perez by 0.040s
Perez = Button
Hamilton > Button by 0.250s

I end up with Verstappen > Hamilton by 0.090s
I was really only joking with those long chains but I'd have expected Verstappen to have a pace advantage of 1 tenth.

I do tend to think chains with more than two linking drivers get unreliable though.

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