Who will end their career with the most wins? 2020 edition

[JN23]

It's being discussed in the original thread about who will end their career with the most wins out of the up and coming drivers.

Charles Leclerc: 2 wins, age 22
George Russell: 0 wins, age 22
Lando Norris: 0 wins, age 20
Max Verstappen 9 wins, age 22

It could of course be someone else on the grid and this thread will look silly in 10-15 years

[Option or Prime]

How fair a comparison is this? The first thread is comparing two multiple world champions I get that, they are in Ferrari and Mercedes cars both are capable of top honours.
Then you have Leclerc and Verstappen in top cars versus Norris and particularly Russel who are doing spectacularly well to get a podium. Leclerc and Verstappen will only extend their head start surely. Its not really like with like is it?

[Invade]

Max is aged 22.

So on the whole these guys are probably going to have even more races at it than the likes of Hamilton, Vettel and Alonso, and season will probably end up being comprised of 25 races.

They have combined so far for 173 wins in 817 entries as of 21/08/2020. They will have many more entries collectively to come with Alonso returning in 2021 for at least two seasons and Hamilton likely to stay in the sport for several more years. Mainly through hamilton they'll probably end up combining for ~200 wins. Perhaps less, most likely more.

We need a fourth driver to add to that, so we'll just go with Rosberg who achieved 23 wins from 206 entries. Now we have 196 wins from 1023 entries with it likely to end up at ~225 wins.

So with that in mind I'll throw out some wild guesses, with the assumption that these four really are the cream of the young crop with a collective level of talent similar to, say, Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton, with the fourth guy being a Rosberg, Button or Ricciardo level driver. This young crop do have the current problem that Mercedes are still very dominant and none of them are in that car. Russell is in the apparent catbird seat but things can change quickly in F1. Anyway...

Leclerc: 51 wins
Russell: 42 wins
Norris: 15 wins
Verstappen: 94 wins

This puts them at 202 wins and from probably more entries. Why have I predicted less? Well, we have no foresight over which new racing studs will be on the horizon during their careers, whereas we have the history in the books for the older group. Also, the older group were fortunate to have landed in ridiculously dominant and advantageous positions for 10+ years running and it's to such a degree where it is probably an exception rather than the norm - to have two very dominant dynasties in Red Bull and Mercedes to follow one after the other with Vettel and then Hamilton in prime position to reap the rewards.

I expect more balance in the times to come, but that Verstappen's talent will be supreme enough to land him consistent victories season after season and allow him at some point to produce dominant seasons, perhaps record-breaking dominant seasons, such is his consistency and speed. Mostly though, he's had a very early start and I expect him to have a very long career, logging 450+ entries.

I think Leclerc is probably every bit as fast as Verstappen, especially in qualifying. Will he ever reach Verstappen's level of consistency though? I suggest he won't.

Norris and Russell are relative unknowns right now, but though Russell has had weak teammates, I still think his current qualifying record is remarkable and augers very well indeed. It seems that there are some seriously monster qualifiers in this current crop and I suspect when it's all said and done we'll talk of at least one of them as being perhaps the greatest qualifier ever or second only to Senna.

I'm optimistic for McLaren and Norris, but at the moment he's in the least propitious position when considering not just current performance but recent history, which far favours Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari over McLaren.

I do think it's a blessed generation and I don't expect them to be usurped or obsolesced by a soon to follow generation. Rather, I expect them to have the measure of the next decade-plus in the sport much like Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel achieved. There will be one or two talents that come through in that time though who will be forceful and talented race winners and form part of their era, however. We just don't have much of a clue who they will be.

[Invade]

How fair a comparison is this? The first thread is comparing two multiple world champions I get that, they are in Ferrari and Mercedes cars both are capable of top honours.
Then you have Leclerc and Verstappen in top cars versus Norris and particularly Russel who are doing spectacularly well to get a podium. Leclerc and Verstappen will only extend their head start surely. Its not really like with like is it?

Doesn't matter.

Make your predictions and look into the future. If Lando and George are good enough they'll get their chances. For example, suppose Lando outclasses Ricciardo, he'll be a wanted man down the road. George is primed for a Mercedes drive in the future. So... let's play the game.

[Invade]

WDCs

Leclerc: 3
Russell: 2
Norris: 0
Verstappen: 6
(Hamilton: 9)

[mikeyg123]

How fair a comparison is this? The first thread is comparing two multiple world champions I get that, they are in Ferrari and Mercedes cars both are capable of top honours.
Then you have Leclerc and Verstappen in top cars versus Norris and particularly Russel who are doing spectacularly well to get a podium. Leclerc and Verstappen will only extend their head start surely. Its not really like with like is it?

I suggested those 4 as I believe they will be the generational talents. Just because Russell isn't in a top car now doesn't mean he won't be in one moe often that the others over the next 20 years. Look at the original thread. When that was made Vettel looked like racking up an almost impossibly high win tally and was extending his lead all the time. Hamilton overcame a big deficit to not only be ahead but be ahead by miles.

it's not really relevant what they can do now but what we think they will do over the next two decades.

[Exediron]

Verstappen is the safe bet, and the one I'm going with.

I personally believe that he's no better than Leclerc, and potentially no better than Norris or Russell -- but he's in a top car now, he's already established himself at the peak of desirability, and unlike Leclerc he's not married to a team I have no confidence in.

Russell is in line to get into a Mercedes, but I don't believe Merc will maintain their enormous advantage into the years where he might drive for them. Norris' future is wholly uncertain, and hinges largely on how competitive McLaren is in the post-2021 era.

But I don't think any of them will get close to Hamilton's records.

[mikeyg123]

Verstappen is the safe bet, and the one I'm going with.

I personally believe that he's no better than Leclerc, and potentially no better than Norris or Russell -- but he's in a top car now, he's already established himself at the peak of desirability, and unlike Leclerc he's not married to a team I have no confidence in.

Russell is in line to get into a Mercedes, but I don't believe Merc will maintain their enormous advantage into the years where he might drive for them. Norris' future is wholly uncertain, and hinges largely on how competitive McLaren is in the post-2021 era.

But I don't think any of them will get close to Hamilton's records.

I sincerely hope not. That would mean another extended period of domination which I think we could do without.

[Exediron]

But I don't think any of them will get close to Hamilton's records.

I sincerely hope not. That would mean another extended period of domination which I think we could do without.

Exactly. In a healthy F1, racking up numbers like Hamilton has been doing is impossible regardless of talent.

[Jenson's Understeer]

For anyone interested, I did a version of this thread just under a year ago (viewtopic.php?f=3&hilit=most%20wins&p=8 ... c9fc30ad1a) and the results were:

Verstappen - 59% (17 votes)
Leclerc - 34% (10 votes)
Russell - 7% (2 votes)
Albon/Norris/'Other' - 0% (0 votes collectively)

I will again be voting for Russell. He'll get that Mercedes seat sooner or later (2022, IMO) and will quickly recover lost ground.

[Badgeronimous]

Really depends on who end up in what machinery. If any of them get 3-4 years in a car like the Merc - they could jump from near nothing to 50 wins very quickly.

I don't think I'll see again a team again capable of winning 3 out of 4 races over a period of 7-8 years like Mercedes have done but..... I said similar after Ferrari and Schumacher and 8yrs later a teams started doing that even more emphatically. So who knows.... it isnt healthy for the sport though having a car doing that for years on end - so hope it doesnt happen.

If F1 is healthy as a sporting spectacle, nobody should be getting close to the record numbers.

However surely Verstappen will eventually get the chance for a few seasons in a championship capable car and be able to run off 7-8-9 wins a year for a few seasons.

[f1madman]

Lewis Hamilton

[kleefton]

I think it will be Leclerc. Mostly a gut feeling but the way he has found himself on the podium twice this year in that terrible Ferrari car suggest that he is just meant to be on there and will be many many times in the future. Sainz is the perfect teammate for him imo. He is not as fast as Charles but is no pushover and will help Ferrari get back to the top with his excellent feedback skills.
Verstappen just reminds me too much of Alonso, always trashing teammates to an extent where he just looks to be the best driver ever but somehow he never has the best car and cannot beat it either. So I think ultimately that will cost him in terms of records.
Russell I am not convinced is the racer that Max and Charles are. He qualifies extremely well but on race day he is nowhere as impressive.
Norris is a lesser talent imo. Good driver but not top tier.

[Invade]

Lewis Hamilton

Actually, it's a good question.

If we start from right now, will Hamilton still end up with more wins than perhaps even the majority of drivers selected for this poll?

Who knows, maybe he only has 10 more wins to come (a rather pessimistic outlook given his position) or maybe he has another 50 incoming (highly optimistic, but scarily it's possible if Merc get it right yet again for 22). Naturally, I expect quite a bit more than 10 and plenty less than 50.

[mikeyg123]

Lewis Hamilton

Actually, it's a good question.

If we start from right now, will Hamilton still end up with more wins than perhaps even the majority of drivers selected for this poll?

Who knows, maybe he only has 10 more wins to come (a rather pessimistic outlook given his position) or maybe he has another 50 incoming (highly optimistic, but scarily it's possible if Merc get it right yet again for 22). Naturally, I expect quite a bit more than 10 and plenty less than 50.

If he retires at 37-38 like most then he's probably got another 20 or so. Depends how Merc do in 2022.

[Rockie]

I have selected Russell and I have a feeling he's going to pull a Vettel here getting the Mercedes drive and blowing them out of the water.

One thing that has been consistent during this hybrid era the Mercedes PU.

Even with the change of rules, this platform suits Mercedes and they will continue to dominate as long as this engines remain in F1, and to me I feel Bottas has signed his last Mercedes contract and with Toto rumoured to be leaving, Russell is going to be in that car by '22.

[Invade]

I have selected Russell and I have a feeling he's going to pull a Vettel here getting the Mercedes drive and blowing them out of the water.

One thing that has been consistent during this hybrid era the Mercedes PU.

Even with the change of rules, this platform suits Mercedes and they will continue to dominate as long as this engines remain in F1, and to me I feel Bottas has signed his last Mercedes contract and with Toto rumoured to be leaving, Russell is going to be in that car by '22.

I too think Russell will find great opportunity at Mercedes. The question is: how long will Hamilton go on for and how much would he and Russell get in each other's way for race victories if and when they are paired up and Mercedes still have a competitive car? For Hamilton, he'll likely have the records anyway, but for Russell, his teammate might be too good for him to rack up massive win totals during his first phase at Mercedes.

Obviously this all assumes that he does get that drive, that Hamilton hangs around, and that Mercedes produce a very good car. I do expect them to be competitive and even Championship-winning, but to the tune of ~15 wins a season into the new era? I somehow doubt that, and so there might be less to go around.

[pokerman]

How fair a comparison is this? The first thread is comparing two multiple world champions I get that, they are in Ferrari and Mercedes cars both are capable of top honours.
Then you have Leclerc and Verstappen in top cars versus Norris and particularly Russel who are doing spectacularly well to get a podium. Leclerc and Verstappen will only extend their head start surely. Its not really like with like is it?

I suggested those 4 as I believe they will be the generational talents. Just because Russell isn't in a top car now doesn't mean he won't be in one moe often that the others over the next 20 years. Look at the original thread. When that was made Vettel looked like racking up an almost impossibly high win tally and was extending his lead all the time. Hamilton overcame a big deficit to not only be ahead but be ahead by miles.

it's not really relevant what they can do now but what we think they will do over the next two decades.

I agree these are the 4 best young drivers going forward, also Verstappen's slight lead thus far is nothing in the grand scheme of things.

I chose Verstappen because I think he is heading for greatness and I think things will open up for him more after Hamilton retires, that being if Red Bull can't deliver for him then I think will be able to pick whoever he wants to drive for.

[pokerman]

But I don't think any of them will get close to Hamilton's records.

I sincerely hope not. That would mean another extended period of domination which I think we could do without.

Exactly. In a healthy F1, racking up numbers like Hamilton has been doing is impossible regardless of talent.

Schumacher managed it and there are more races these days.

[pokerman]

Really depends on who end up in what machinery. If any of them get 3-4 years in a car like the Merc - they could jump from near nothing to 50 wins very quickly.

I don't think I'll see again a team again capable of winning 3 out of 4 races over a period of 7-8 years like Mercedes have done but..... I said similar after Ferrari and Schumacher and 8yrs later a teams started doing that even more emphatically. So who knows.... it isnt healthy for the sport though having a car doing that for years on end - so hope it doesnt happen.

If F1 is healthy as a sporting spectacle, nobody should be getting close to the record numbers.

However surely Verstappen will eventually get the chance for a few seasons in a championship capable car and be able to run off 7-8-9 wins a year for a few seasons.

Marc Marquez is able to do it in MotoGP were most of the bikes are quite equal, I would say in F1 it's possible without necessarily having a dominant car so in that instance I wouldn't call it unhealthy.

[pokerman]

I have selected Russell and I have a feeling he's going to pull a Vettel here getting the Mercedes drive and blowing them out of the water.

One thing that has been consistent during this hybrid era the Mercedes PU.

Even with the change of rules, this platform suits Mercedes and they will continue to dominate as long as this engines remain in F1, and to me I feel Bottas has signed his last Mercedes contract and with Toto rumoured to be leaving, Russell is going to be in that car by '22.

Ferrari had the best engine in 2018 and 2019, Mercedes had the best car sans engine in 2019 and this year, so it's not just about the engine.

[Rockie]

I have selected Russell and I have a feeling he's going to pull a Vettel here getting the Mercedes drive and blowing them out of the water.

One thing that has been consistent during this hybrid era the Mercedes PU.

Even with the change of rules, this platform suits Mercedes and they will continue to dominate as long as this engines remain in F1, and to me I feel Bottas has signed his last Mercedes contract and with Toto rumoured to be leaving, Russell is going to be in that car by '22.

Ferrari had the best engine in 2018 and 2019, Mercedes had the best car sans engine in 2019 and this year, so it's not just about the engine.

Lol people keep repeating this opinion like it's a fact, the driveability of these engines is the key and no one has come close to Mercedes PU.

Case in point look at RP by just focusing on the aero parts they got from Mercedes look at the jump in performance for them.

Also Mercedes can concentrate on working on the aero as they perfected the engines straight out of the box, same way as Redbull did in the V8 era where all Newey focused on was the aero the engine was a constant and only tinkered with the mapping.

But I don't expect you to get the nuance of that.

[pokerman]

I have selected Russell and I have a feeling he's going to pull a Vettel here getting the Mercedes drive and blowing them out of the water.

One thing that has been consistent during this hybrid era the Mercedes PU.

Even with the change of rules, this platform suits Mercedes and they will continue to dominate as long as this engines remain in F1, and to me I feel Bottas has signed his last Mercedes contract and with Toto rumoured to be leaving, Russell is going to be in that car by '22.

Ferrari had the best engine in 2018 and 2019, Mercedes had the best car sans engine in 2019 and this year, so it's not just about the engine.

Lol people keep repeating this opinion like it's a fact, the driveability of these engines is the key and no one has come close to Mercedes PU.

Case in point look at RP by just focusing on the aero parts they got from Mercedes look at the jump in performance for them.

Also Mercedes can concentrate on working on the aero as they perfected the engines straight out of the box, same way as Redbull did in the V8 era where all Newey focused on was the aero the engine was a constant and only tinkered with the mapping.

But I don't expect you to get the nuance of that.

Whereas your opinion is a fact despite evidence to the contrary, then you say RP have made a big jump in performance by copying the Mercedes car but then again I thought you said it was all about the engine.

[Exediron]

Ferrari had the best engine in 2018 and 2019, Mercedes had the best car sans engine in 2019 and this year, so it's not just about the engine.

Lol people keep repeating this opinion like it's a fact, the driveability of these engines is the key and no one has come close to Mercedes PU.

... the people who are repeating this 'opinion' like a fact include both the Mercedes F1 team and the Ferrari F1 team. Ferrari had the undisputed best engine in 2018 and 2019, right up until the technical directive in Austin. Nobody in their right mind questions it.

Mercedes may (and I repeat may) have had a more driveable engine in those years. But the Ferrari was 50+ horsepower more powerful, and that's just too much to overcome with an intangibles argument.

[tootsie323]

Really depends on who end up in what machinery. If any of them get 3-4 years in a car like the Merc - they could jump from near nothing to 50 wins very quickly.

I don't think I'll see again a team again capable of winning 3 out of 4 races over a period of 7-8 years like Mercedes have done but..... I said similar after Ferrari and Schumacher and 8yrs later a teams started doing that even more emphatically. So who knows.... it isnt healthy for the sport though having a car doing that for years on end - so hope it doesnt happen.

If F1 is healthy as a sporting spectacle, nobody should be getting close to the record numbers.

However surely Verstappen will eventually get the chance for a few seasons in a championship capable car and be able to run off 7-8-9 wins a year for a few seasons.

Marc Marquez is able to do it in MotoGP were most of the bikes are quite equal, I would say in F1 it's possible without necessarily having a dominant car so in that instance I wouldn't call it unhealthy.

I'd argue that riders have a lot more input into the speed of the bike around a circuit than drivers do in cars, with more freedom (and need!) to shift body weight around. MotoGP has done a lot more to seek parity on the bikes than F1 has for the cars, I'll agree. Hopefully the financial distribution and - if it finally comes to pass! - aero regs (plus tyres that can be pushed harder!) will bring the cars a little closer (to be fair the midfield is pretty good at the mo).
In terms of overall wins between the drivers mentioned, I can see Red Bull improving and Verstappen's current 'lead' will be to his benefit. Assuming Russell does get the Merc seat and Ferrari improves its car, we could see the winms being shared quite well going forward. That leaves Macca and, whilst I expect further improvement, I;m unsure as to whether they will break into the top three.

[pokerman]

Really depends on who end up in what machinery. If any of them get 3-4 years in a car like the Merc - they could jump from near nothing to 50 wins very quickly.

I don't think I'll see again a team again capable of winning 3 out of 4 races over a period of 7-8 years like Mercedes have done but..... I said similar after Ferrari and Schumacher and 8yrs later a teams started doing that even more emphatically. So who knows.... it isnt healthy for the sport though having a car doing that for years on end - so hope it doesnt happen.

If F1 is healthy as a sporting spectacle, nobody should be getting close to the record numbers.

However surely Verstappen will eventually get the chance for a few seasons in a championship capable car and be able to run off 7-8-9 wins a year for a few seasons.

Marc Marquez is able to do it in MotoGP were most of the bikes are quite equal, I would say in F1 it's possible without necessarily having a dominant car so in that instance I wouldn't call it unhealthy.

I'd argue that riders have a lot more input into the speed of the bike around a circuit than drivers do in cars, with more freedom (and need!) to shift body weight around. MotoGP has done a lot more to seek parity on the bikes than F1 has for the cars, I'll agree. Hopefully the financial distribution and - if it finally comes to pass! - aero regs (plus tyres that can be pushed harder!) will bring the cars a little closer (to be fair the midfield is pretty good at the mo).
In terms of overall wins between the drivers mentioned, I can see Red Bull improving and Verstappen's current 'lead' will be to his benefit. Assuming Russell does get the Merc seat and Ferrari improves its car, we could see the winms being shared quite well going forward. That leaves Macca and, whilst I expect further improvement, I;m unsure as to whether they will break into the top three.

The point I was making if the cars do converge but one driver is still able to be dominant, would that in itself still be seen as unhealthy?

[Exediron]

The point I was making if the cars do converge but one driver is still able to be dominant, would that in itself still be seen as unhealthy?

Probably yes, in all honesty. Notice how much more interest there is in who might actually win the MotoGP title with Marquez out of the picture.

[mikeyg123]

Really depends on who end up in what machinery. If any of them get 3-4 years in a car like the Merc - they could jump from near nothing to 50 wins very quickly.

I don't think I'll see again a team again capable of winning 3 out of 4 races over a period of 7-8 years like Mercedes have done but..... I said similar after Ferrari and Schumacher and 8yrs later a teams started doing that even more emphatically. So who knows.... it isnt healthy for the sport though having a car doing that for years on end - so hope it doesnt happen.

If F1 is healthy as a sporting spectacle, nobody should be getting close to the record numbers.

However surely Verstappen will eventually get the chance for a few seasons in a championship capable car and be able to run off 7-8-9 wins a year for a few seasons.

Marc Marquez is able to do it in MotoGP were most of the bikes are quite equal, I would say in F1 it's possible without necessarily having a dominant car so in that instance I wouldn't call it unhealthy.

I'd argue that riders have a lot more input into the speed of the bike around a circuit than drivers do in cars, with more freedom (and need!) to shift body weight around. MotoGP has done a lot more to seek parity on the bikes than F1 has for the cars, I'll agree. Hopefully the financial distribution and - if it finally comes to pass! - aero regs (plus tyres that can be pushed harder!) will bring the cars a little closer (to be fair the midfield is pretty good at the mo).
In terms of overall wins between the drivers mentioned, I can see Red Bull improving and Verstappen's current 'lead' will be to his benefit. Assuming Russell does get the Merc seat and Ferrari improves its car, we could see the winms being shared quite well going forward. That leaves Macca and, whilst I expect further improvement, I;m unsure as to whether they will break into the top three.

The point I was making if the cars do converge but one driver is still able to be dominant, would that in itself still be seen as unhealthy?

Yes of course.

[tootsie323]

The point I was making if the cars do converge but one driver is still able to be dominant, would that in itself still be seen as unhealthy?

Good point. I'd agree with that premise, and it shouldn't be seen as so unhealthy in my view.

[pokerman]

Really depends on who end up in what machinery. If any of them get 3-4 years in a car like the Merc - they could jump from near nothing to 50 wins very quickly.

I don't think I'll see again a team again capable of winning 3 out of 4 races over a period of 7-8 years like Mercedes have done but..... I said similar after Ferrari and Schumacher and 8yrs later a teams started doing that even more emphatically. So who knows.... it isnt healthy for the sport though having a car doing that for years on end - so hope it doesnt happen.

If F1 is healthy as a sporting spectacle, nobody should be getting close to the record numbers.

However surely Verstappen will eventually get the chance for a few seasons in a championship capable car and be able to run off 7-8-9 wins a year for a few seasons.

Marc Marquez is able to do it in MotoGP were most of the bikes are quite equal, I would say in F1 it's possible without necessarily having a dominant car so in that instance I wouldn't call it unhealthy.

I'd argue that riders have a lot more input into the speed of the bike around a circuit than drivers do in cars, with more freedom (and need!) to shift body weight around. MotoGP has done a lot more to seek parity on the bikes than F1 has for the cars, I'll agree. Hopefully the financial distribution and - if it finally comes to pass! - aero regs (plus tyres that can be pushed harder!) will bring the cars a little closer (to be fair the midfield is pretty good at the mo).
In terms of overall wins between the drivers mentioned, I can see Red Bull improving and Verstappen's current 'lead' will be to his benefit. Assuming Russell does get the Merc seat and Ferrari improves its car, we could see the winms being shared quite well going forward. That leaves Macca and, whilst I expect further improvement, I;m unsure as to whether they will break into the top three.

The point I was making if the cars do converge but one driver is still able to be dominant, would that in itself still be seen as unhealthy?

Yes of course.

Then were looking at some kind of artificial means to ensure close racing, that's not something that would interest me.

[pokerman]

The point I was making if the cars do converge but one driver is still able to be dominant, would that in itself still be seen as unhealthy?

Good point. I'd agree with that premise, and it shouldn't be seen as so unhealthy in my view.

The opposite answer to Mikey.

I would consider that given equal cars the Schumacher years would have been even more dominant so in theory could happen again regardless if we get rid of the posibilities of dominant cars, however unlike other sports, in motor racing, not just F1, such things are so bad and to be avoided so we will come up with systems to try and prevent that like the FE qualifying system, hopefully F1 can remain free of such anti-competition.

[mikeyg123]

Marc Marquez is able to do it in MotoGP were most of the bikes are quite equal, I would say in F1 it's possible without necessarily having a dominant car so in that instance I wouldn't call it unhealthy.

I'd argue that riders have a lot more input into the speed of the bike around a circuit than drivers do in cars, with more freedom (and need!) to shift body weight around. MotoGP has done a lot more to seek parity on the bikes than F1 has for the cars, I'll agree. Hopefully the financial distribution and - if it finally comes to pass! - aero regs (plus tyres that can be pushed harder!) will bring the cars a little closer (to be fair the midfield is pretty good at the mo).
In terms of overall wins between the drivers mentioned, I can see Red Bull improving and Verstappen's current 'lead' will be to his benefit. Assuming Russell does get the Merc seat and Ferrari improves its car, we could see the winms being shared quite well going forward. That leaves Macca and, whilst I expect further improvement, I;m unsure as to whether they will break into the top three.

The point I was making if the cars do converge but one driver is still able to be dominant, would that in itself still be seen as unhealthy?

Yes of course.

Then were looking at some kind of artificial means to ensure close racing, that's not something that would interest me.

I'm not saying in those circumstances you should do something about it to make things more competitive. One person being way ahead of the field is unhealthy in any sport. I can't think of a counter example to that.

[pokerman]

I'd argue that riders have a lot more input into the speed of the bike around a circuit than drivers do in cars, with more freedom (and need!) to shift body weight around. MotoGP has done a lot more to seek parity on the bikes than F1 has for the cars, I'll agree. Hopefully the financial distribution and - if it finally comes to pass! - aero regs (plus tyres that can be pushed harder!) will bring the cars a little closer (to be fair the midfield is pretty good at the mo).
In terms of overall wins between the drivers mentioned, I can see Red Bull improving and Verstappen's current 'lead' will be to his benefit. Assuming Russell does get the Merc seat and Ferrari improves its car, we could see the winms being shared quite well going forward. That leaves Macca and, whilst I expect further improvement, I;m unsure as to whether they will break into the top three.

The point I was making if the cars do converge but one driver is still able to be dominant, would that in itself still be seen as unhealthy?

Yes of course.

Then were looking at some kind of artificial means to ensure close racing, that's not something that would interest me.

I'm not saying in those circumstances you should do something about it to make things more competitive. One person being way ahead of the field is unhealthy in any sport. I can't think of a counter example to that.

Usain Bolt was unhealthy to his sport?

[tootsie323]

I'm not saying in those circumstances you should do something about it to make things more competitive. One person being way ahead of the field is unhealthy in any sport. I can't think of a counter example to that.

Usain Bolt was unhealthy to his sport?

We're digressing a bit here but I'm going to respond anyway! Personally I don't think that a dominant person is an unhealthy thing in sports. It's generally natural talent (or genetics) coupled with dedication. Age catches up with everyone so that dominance is not forever. When it comes to who designs something better than anyone, there isn't a natural limit to such dominance. Depending on the rules, restrictions, budget etc, one should expect others to catch up. If this isn't the case, it's probably only logical to take a look at the rules, regulations etc...

[pokerman]

I'm not saying in those circumstances you should do something about it to make things more competitive. One person being way ahead of the field is unhealthy in any sport. I can't think of a counter example to that.

Usain Bolt was unhealthy to his sport?

We're digressing a bit here but I'm going to respond anyway! Personally I don't think that a dominant person is an unhealthy thing in sports. It's generally natural talent (or genetics) coupled with dedication. Age catches up with everyone so that dominance is not forever. When it comes to who designs something better than anyone, there isn't a natural limit to such dominance. Depending on the rules, restrictions, budget etc, one should expect others to catch up. If this isn't the case, it's probably only logical to take a look at the rules, regulations etc...

We were talking of a utopia were the drivers had equal equipment but one drive emerged as being dominant, such a thing was said to be bad for F1.

[Badgeronimous]

I don't think a dominant driver is necessarily unhealthy, but...... F1 isn't always a fair fight and a dominant driver in dominant car doesn't do much for the show - that's where it differs from other sports. It would be like Tiger Woods dominating golf with significantly superior clubs and balls to his opponents.

In order to run Schumacher/Hamilton type numbers you need top talent and years of having equipment capable of winning most races. That's the bit I don't think is good for the sport. A team going 7 seasons winning 3 out of 4 races is impressive but, it has too often been a 1 horse race, even a bad performance would still see them running near the top.

Any top driver gets into that situation - they'll pull impressive numbers - and that goes for the next generation.

Other end of the scale you have somebody like Ricciardo, whom was close to Verstappen in terms of performance but left Red Bull as he was starting to go down the road of being Webber'd or Massa'd as Red Bull (with some merit) backed Max. However - he could realistically go his entire career without getting a shot of a championship contending car (and hard to see any pathway that could open for that ATM) - and that's a driver who is certainly good enough to win a title.

[Invade]

WDCs

Leclerc: 3
Russell: 2
Norris: 0
Verstappen: 6
(Hamilton: 9)

Gonna change my mind on this as it takes up too much of the future without knowing what lies beyond the horizon. The first prediction accounts for — assuming Hamilton wins in 2020 — 13 additional years of champions. If we remove Hamilton from the prediction then it's 11 years. Somehow I doubt Leclerc, Russell and Verstappen, or even any combination of active drivers outside of Hamilton, will account for 11 years of winning. One or two others will shake things up with their quality, and there will likely continue to be room for one-off good-but-not-great Champions given the right circumstance.

2021-2035

Leclerc: 2
Russell: 1
Norris: 0
Verstappen: 5
(Hamilton: 9)
Others: 5

How is that for a stupidly long and pointless forecast.

[Paolo_Lasardi]

I think too many predictions here rely on a linear continuation of both team competitiveness and driver careers. But who knows, maybe in 5 years Verstappen drives Mercedes, Leclerc Red Bull and Norris dominates in a Ferrari with Russell being back to a midfield team after being comprehensively beaten by Verstappen. Or completely different ...

In other words: I have no idea.

Talent-wise, my ranking would be:
Leclerc & Verstappen
Norris
.
Russell
Schumacher
Stroll

Edit: anybody else in this age range to be included?

[Alienturnedhuman]

What do we feel about this poll now after seeing George in a competitive car?

[Exediron]

What do we feel about this poll now after seeing George in a competitive car?

I think he performed about how all the people who voted for him expected. This is honestly about who you think will end up in the best car for the longest, not a vote on driver ability.