2020 Season - Driver Ratings

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Exediron
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Exediron »

Invade wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:03 pm
Exediron wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:07 pm
The only way you can rate Bottas highly is if you believe Hamilton has a Marc Marquez-like dominance over the drivers in F1, and I do not. Before he was in the Mercedes, he was only one of the best -- and I believe that he still is only one of the best.
I wonder if Marquez is a freak or if the series is devoid of elite talents. Is Marquez a step up from Hamilton, Alonso and Verstappen or is MotoGP without an equivalent of two of those three? Schumacher perhaps had Marquez-like dominance, and that makes sense given the context of his era and the dearth of elite top-top tier talent. I also generally make the assumption that F1 is more likely to attract generational talents than MotoGP though have no idea if this is actually the case. I assume many more people go karting than biking. Clearly, in relative terms according to the competition within series, Marquez's dominance is a rare sight.
I think it has to be the second option; the MotoGP field is simply not as strong as the F1 field. I find that far more likely than the other possibility. Likewise, I agree with your Schumacher analogy -- or earlier, with drivers like Senna or Clark. Those were great drivers, but they wouldn't look like they did on today's grid.
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:39 pm
You totally missed what I've been saying, despite Bottas' results, Russell is ranked above him despite not having scored a single point and you're still telling me that it's weighted to drivers having better cars.
No, I get what you're saying. I might not have been clear, myself: I'm not talking about the official rankings here being unusually sympathetic to Bottas. I'm talking about individuals overrating Bottas' performance because he's in a top car, which is something I think is common throughout the field.

People are impressed by results, not performance -- as evidence, Gasly's drive in Monza was hailed as something special, when in reality all he did was get lucky and drive faster than a pair of Alfa Romeos who held Sainz up. If he'd done the same thing in 10th place, nobody would have cared.
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Invade
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Invade »

Exediron wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:01 pm

I think it has to be the second option; the MotoGP field is simply not as strong as the F1 field. I find that far more likely than the other possibility. Likewise, I agree with your Schumacher analogy -- or earlier, with drivers like Senna or Clark. Those were great drivers, but they wouldn't look like they did on today's grid.
When looking at the history of the highest of ATGs, even they tend to not quite stand head and shoulders above providing the era has worthy competition. We can look to Ali or Federer or Tom Brady. Sometimes the best of their time go pretty much unchallenged: Pele, Jordan. It would have been the case for Messi or Ronaldo had they not been contemporaries. Every so often a player comes along in a sport who is so far beyond the rest that it's difficult to explain away through anything other than them being some sort of freak anomoly and once in a century level talent, and perhaps this can be argued for Donald Bradman. It's a particularly strong case, despite the narrowness of his competition compared to modern day cricket, because of the raw objectivity of stats in sports like cricket, or darts, or snooker (or games if you prefer). Nobody before or since has sniffed anything close to Bradman's batting average (-- perhaps you're already aware).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_T ... ng_average

But in almost all cases I can think of, the greatest of the era who does appear to be head and shoulders above is so because their timing coincides with an era which lacks multiple ATG anomalies, and it's actually quite common for such eras to transpire across many sports — perhaps as likely as it is for an era to have multiple such talents.

Edit:

PS, but ultimately if such a talent hangs around long enough, someone else comes along who more or less proves that they're in the same bracket, such as in the case with Jansher Khan following Jehangir Khan in squash, or in Michael Van Gerwen showing that the raw quality of darts from Phil Taylor didn't require decades and decades to match but came before his retirement. They are then disproven as potential "once-in-a-century" talents.
Last edited by Invade on Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by pokerman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:52 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:46 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:38 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:33 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:42 pm


Bottas' position makes him hard to rate. Given his car he almost always achieves the very minimum acceptable result. On the face of it that's less than Russell. However in order to improve that he has to beat Hamilton which is very difficult. Given we can deduce very little regarding Bottas' performance over than it's not as good as Hamilton and if we accept Hamilton is the best driver in F1 then Bottas could reasonably be placed below anyone that is beating their team mate or above everyone but Hamilton.
It's just like I said Bottas has to beat Hamilton for other drivers the standard is somewhat less.
And at the same time a bad day at the office still sees him on the podium and getting a decent score.
He's 9th in the rankings so not really that decent, some drivers score more for top 6 or top 10 finishes,
Well yeah, for most on the grid a top 6 would be much more impressive than Bottas coming 2nd.
Which also shows in the rankings and goes against what was said about drivers in better cars getting better scores.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by mikeyg123 »

pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:21 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:52 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:46 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:38 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:33 pm

It's just like I said Bottas has to beat Hamilton for other drivers the standard is somewhat less.
And at the same time a bad day at the office still sees him on the podium and getting a decent score.
He's 9th in the rankings so not really that decent, some drivers score more for top 6 or top 10 finishes,
Well yeah, for most on the grid a top 6 would be much more impressive than Bottas coming 2nd.
Which also shows in the rankings and goes against what was said about drivers in better cars getting better scores.
Don't create a strawman.

What was said was you get a better score for the same performance in a better car.

Not that you get a better score in a better car regardless of performance.

WHoff78
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by WHoff78 »

The rankings are always going to be open to interpretation and heavily influenced by the teammate.

Bottas probably does get a tough ride. Hamilton is expected to be on pole/win and is therefore often held to a higher standard, and people looking to find faults. Bottas is compared against him and will score less when he is behind Hamilton, and so is also held to that same high standard. But he also racks up the podiums and the results, and has an outside shot at a title so I doubt he is too worried about the rankings he receives.

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by pokerman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:28 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:21 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:52 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:46 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:38 pm


And at the same time a bad day at the office still sees him on the podium and getting a decent score.
He's 9th in the rankings so not really that decent, some drivers score more for top 6 or top 10 finishes,
Well yeah, for most on the grid a top 6 would be much more impressive than Bottas coming 2nd.
Which also shows in the rankings and goes against what was said about drivers in better cars getting better scores.
Don't create a strawman.

What was said was you get a better score for the same performance in a better car.

Not that you get a better score in a better car regardless of performance.
Strawman, alright let's do some actual legwork rather than perhaps lazily making sweeping statements.

The standard performance of Bottas is seen as a second place, for that his average score is 7.64, if he finishes third the average score drops to 7.26.

Now let's look at the average score for a midfield driver finishing in positions 4-10, I'm not even counting midfield drivers finishing on the podium which would inflate the average, I will ignore these races and just use the ones were the podium only consists of either a Mercedes or Red Bull car, the average score is 7.86, so basically Bottas has to win a race to outscore an average points scoring midfield car otherwise he himself gets outscored even when he finishes second.

Last time out Hamilton scored 8.75 which included pole position and fastest lap, this was only 0.89 points more than a midfield driver will get scored for finishing in position 4-10, thems the actual facts.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:42 pm
Strawman, alright let's do some actual legwork rather than perhaps lazily making sweeping statements.

The standard performance of Bottas is seen as a second place, for that his average score is 7.64, if he finishes third the average score drops to 7.26.

Now let's look at the average score for a midfield driver finishing in positions 4-10, I'm not even counting midfield drivers finishing on the podium which would inflate the average, I will ignore these races and just use the ones were the podium only consists of either a Mercedes or Red Bull car, the average score is 7.86, so basically Bottas has to win a race to outscore an average points scoring midfield car otherwise he himself gets outscored even when he finishes second.

Last time out Hamilton scored 8.75 which included pole position and fastest lap, this was only 0.89 points more than a midfield driver will get scored for finishing in position 4-10, thems the actual facts.
... and?

Hamilton winning a race is no more of an achievement than a midfield driver finishing 4th, and honestly I think it's less of one.

As for Bottas, I think a score of 7.6 is awfully high for delivering a standard performance, and 7.2 is extremely high for delivering what should be seen as an unacceptable performance. Yes, Bottas has to win to be impressive. No ****. I'm not impressed by finishing in the minimum position your car should ever deliver.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by mikeyg123 »

pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:42 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:28 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:21 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:52 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:46 pm

He's 9th in the rankings so not really that decent, some drivers score more for top 6 or top 10 finishes,
Well yeah, for most on the grid a top 6 would be much more impressive than Bottas coming 2nd.
Which also shows in the rankings and goes against what was said about drivers in better cars getting better scores.
Don't create a strawman.

What was said was you get a better score for the same performance in a better car.

Not that you get a better score in a better car regardless of performance.
Strawman, alright let's do some actual legwork rather than perhaps lazily making sweeping statements.

The standard performance of Bottas is seen as a second place, for that his average score is 7.64, if he finishes third the average score drops to 7.26.

Now let's look at the average score for a midfield driver finishing in positions 4-10, I'm not even counting midfield drivers finishing on the podium which would inflate the average, I will ignore these races and just use the ones were the podium only consists of either a Mercedes or Red Bull car, the average score is 7.86, so basically Bottas has to win a race to outscore an average points scoring midfield car otherwise he himself gets outscored even when he finishes second.

Last time out Hamilton scored 8.75 which included pole position and fastest lap, this was only 0.89 points more than a midfield driver will get scored for finishing in position 4-10, thems the actual facts.
Surely you see these facts prove what Exediron is saying?

Finishing 4th in a car that is not a Mercedes or a Red Bull is almost always going to be more impressive than Bottas coming 2nd in a car that should comfortably beat all others.

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:27 am
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:42 pm
Strawman, alright let's do some actual legwork rather than perhaps lazily making sweeping statements.

The standard performance of Bottas is seen as a second place, for that his average score is 7.64, if he finishes third the average score drops to 7.26.

Now let's look at the average score for a midfield driver finishing in positions 4-10, I'm not even counting midfield drivers finishing on the podium which would inflate the average, I will ignore these races and just use the ones were the podium only consists of either a Mercedes or Red Bull car, the average score is 7.86, so basically Bottas has to win a race to outscore an average points scoring midfield car otherwise he himself gets outscored even when he finishes second.

Last time out Hamilton scored 8.75 which included pole position and fastest lap, this was only 0.89 points more than a midfield driver will get scored for finishing in position 4-10, thems the actual facts.
... and?

Hamilton winning a race is no more of an achievement than a midfield driver finishing 4th, and honestly I think it's less of one.

As for Bottas, I think a score of 7.6 is awfully high for delivering a standard performance, and 7.2 is extremely high for delivering what should be seen as an unacceptable performance. Yes, Bottas has to win to be impressive. No ****. I'm not impressed by finishing in the minimum position your car should ever deliver.
I'm not sure you even read what I wrote or maybe understand what I wrote?

I never mentioned 4th place in isolation, for the record the average is 8.85, for some reason when Stroll finishes 4th it drags the average down from 9.08, so that makes what you were saying moot in respect to how Hamilton was scored last time out.

In respect to Bottas I will repeat again despite having a win and a further 6 podiums in 9 races he is only ranked 9th yet you are saying he's being overly scored, so I think we can see were this is going in respect to the Mercedes drivers.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by pokerman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:09 am
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:42 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:28 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:21 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:52 pm


Well yeah, for most on the grid a top 6 would be much more impressive than Bottas coming 2nd.
Which also shows in the rankings and goes against what was said about drivers in better cars getting better scores.
Don't create a strawman.

What was said was you get a better score for the same performance in a better car.

Not that you get a better score in a better car regardless of performance.
Strawman, alright let's do some actual legwork rather than perhaps lazily making sweeping statements.

The standard performance of Bottas is seen as a second place, for that his average score is 7.64, if he finishes third the average score drops to 7.26.

Now let's look at the average score for a midfield driver finishing in positions 4-10, I'm not even counting midfield drivers finishing on the podium which would inflate the average, I will ignore these races and just use the ones were the podium only consists of either a Mercedes or Red Bull car, the average score is 7.86, so basically Bottas has to win a race to outscore an average points scoring midfield car otherwise he himself gets outscored even when he finishes second.

Last time out Hamilton scored 8.75 which included pole position and fastest lap, this was only 0.89 points more than a midfield driver will get scored for finishing in position 4-10, thems the actual facts.
Surely you see these facts prove what Exediron is saying?

Finishing 4th in a car that is not a Mercedes or a Red Bull is almost always going to be more impressive than Bottas coming 2nd in a car that should comfortably beat all others.
Another one not understanding what I wrote, I get attacked for my English so then use simple Maths and still there seems to be little understanding.
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mikeyg123
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by mikeyg123 »

pokerman wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:12 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:09 am
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:42 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:28 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:21 pm

Which also shows in the rankings and goes against what was said about drivers in better cars getting better scores.
Don't create a strawman.

What was said was you get a better score for the same performance in a better car.

Not that you get a better score in a better car regardless of performance.
Strawman, alright let's do some actual legwork rather than perhaps lazily making sweeping statements.

The standard performance of Bottas is seen as a second place, for that his average score is 7.64, if he finishes third the average score drops to 7.26.

Now let's look at the average score for a midfield driver finishing in positions 4-10, I'm not even counting midfield drivers finishing on the podium which would inflate the average, I will ignore these races and just use the ones were the podium only consists of either a Mercedes or Red Bull car, the average score is 7.86, so basically Bottas has to win a race to outscore an average points scoring midfield car otherwise he himself gets outscored even when he finishes second.

Last time out Hamilton scored 8.75 which included pole position and fastest lap, this was only 0.89 points more than a midfield driver will get scored for finishing in position 4-10, thems the actual facts.
Surely you see these facts prove what Exediron is saying?

Finishing 4th in a car that is not a Mercedes or a Red Bull is almost always going to be more impressive than Bottas coming 2nd in a car that should comfortably beat all others.
Another one not understanding what I wrote, I get attacked for my English so then use simple Maths and still there seems to be little understanding.
If everyone is struggling to understand you then perhaps you should look inward rather than outward.

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tootsie323
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by tootsie323 »

Unless you put the same driver into the different cars on the same circuit under the same conditions - or make all cars the same etc - and we will still have some variables we cannot control! - any rating is going to be subjective, no matter how scientifically you approach it.
Just accept that any form of rating will not suit everybody and simply debate the merits relative to your perspective.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Siao7 »

tootsie323 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:36 pm
Unless you put the same driver into the different cars on the same circuit under the same conditions - or make all cars the same etc - and we will still have some variables we cannot control! - any rating is going to be subjective, no matter how scientifically you approach it.
Just accept that any form of rating will not suit everybody and simply debate the merits relative to your perspective.
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pokerman
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by pokerman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:25 pm
pokerman wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:12 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:09 am
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:42 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:28 pm


Don't create a strawman.

What was said was you get a better score for the same performance in a better car.

Not that you get a better score in a better car regardless of performance.
Strawman, alright let's do some actual legwork rather than perhaps lazily making sweeping statements.

The standard performance of Bottas is seen as a second place, for that his average score is 7.64, if he finishes third the average score drops to 7.26.

Now let's look at the average score for a midfield driver finishing in positions 4-10, I'm not even counting midfield drivers finishing on the podium which would inflate the average, I will ignore these races and just use the ones were the podium only consists of either a Mercedes or Red Bull car, the average score is 7.86, so basically Bottas has to win a race to outscore an average points scoring midfield car otherwise he himself gets outscored even when he finishes second.

Last time out Hamilton scored 8.75 which included pole position and fastest lap, this was only 0.89 points more than a midfield driver will get scored for finishing in position 4-10, thems the actual facts.
Surely you see these facts prove what Exediron is saying?

Finishing 4th in a car that is not a Mercedes or a Red Bull is almost always going to be more impressive than Bottas coming 2nd in a car that should comfortably beat all others.
Another one not understanding what I wrote, I get attacked for my English so then use simple Maths and still there seems to be little understanding.
If everyone is struggling to understand you then perhaps you should look inward rather than outward.
Two people is everyone?

The average was based on positions 4-10, not on position 4, it would help if you actually read my post.

Then actually replying to your post, Bottas gets 7.64 for finishing second whilst a midfield driver gets 8.85 for finishing 4th, but I'm sure you are still going to tell me that Bottas' ranking of 9th place is still overated.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by mikeyg123 »

pokerman wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:07 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:25 pm
pokerman wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:12 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:09 am
pokerman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:42 pm

Strawman, alright let's do some actual legwork rather than perhaps lazily making sweeping statements.

The standard performance of Bottas is seen as a second place, for that his average score is 7.64, if he finishes third the average score drops to 7.26.

Now let's look at the average score for a midfield driver finishing in positions 4-10, I'm not even counting midfield drivers finishing on the podium which would inflate the average, I will ignore these races and just use the ones were the podium only consists of either a Mercedes or Red Bull car, the average score is 7.86, so basically Bottas has to win a race to outscore an average points scoring midfield car otherwise he himself gets outscored even when he finishes second.

Last time out Hamilton scored 8.75 which included pole position and fastest lap, this was only 0.89 points more than a midfield driver will get scored for finishing in position 4-10, thems the actual facts.
Surely you see these facts prove what Exediron is saying?

Finishing 4th in a car that is not a Mercedes or a Red Bull is almost always going to be more impressive than Bottas coming 2nd in a car that should comfortably beat all others.
Another one not understanding what I wrote, I get attacked for my English so then use simple Maths and still there seems to be little understanding.
If everyone is struggling to understand you then perhaps you should look inward rather than outward.
Two people is everyone?

The average was based on positions 4-10, not on position 4, it would help if you actually read my post.

Then actually replying to your post, Bottas gets 7.64 for finishing second whilst a midfield driver gets 8.85 for finishing 4th, but I'm sure you are still going to tell me that Bottas' ranking of 9th place is still overated.
I think a 4th place in a midfield car is worth more than 1.5 out of 10 more than Botta finishing second absolutely.

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:07 pm
Then actually replying to your post, Bottas gets 7.64 for finishing second whilst a midfield driver gets 8.85 for finishing 4th, but I'm sure you are still going to tell me that Bottas' ranking of 9th place is still overated.
I'm not sure I'd say Bottas is overrated at 9th, but to be honest I don't think he's underrated there either.

The best thing you can say about Bottas is that he's been consistently close to Hamilton in qualifying. But consistently close -- he isn't beating Hamilton, just losing to him by about a tenth week in week out. I think there are four drivers I'd be confident would do a better job in qualifying, and a further three or so I think probably would.

In races, I believe well over half the grid would have done a job as good as Bottas. He has made no impression on Hamilton in races, and has allowed himself to be beaten by a far slower car on a number of occasions. His performance in Monza was pitiful, with Hamilton demonstrating that the car can indeed overtake if you're capable of overtaking.

I really think Bottas has been bad this year. Without Max's three DNFs, he wouldn't even be second in the WDC in a dominant car.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by JN23 »

Exediron wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:32 pm
pokerman wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:07 pm
Then actually replying to your post, Bottas gets 7.64 for finishing second whilst a midfield driver gets 8.85 for finishing 4th, but I'm sure you are still going to tell me that Bottas' ranking of 9th place is still overated.
I'm not sure I'd say Bottas is overrated at 9th, but to be honest I don't think he's underrated there either.

The best thing you can say about Bottas is that he's been consistently close to Hamilton in qualifying. But consistently close -- he isn't beating Hamilton, just losing to him by about a tenth week in week out. I think there are four drivers I'd be confident would do a better job in qualifying, and a further three or so I think probably would.

In races, I believe well over half the grid would have done a job as good as Bottas. He has made no impression on Hamilton in races, and has allowed himself to be beaten by a far slower car on a number of occasions. His performance in Monza was pitiful, with Hamilton demonstrating that the car can indeed overtake if you're capable of overtaking.

I really think Bottas has been bad this year. Without Max's three DNFs, he wouldn't even be second in the WDC in a dominant car.
This is a bit off topic but who are the seven you mention?

Verstappen, Leclerc, Vettel, Russell, Ricciardo I’m guessing. Beyond that the two McLaren drivers and Ocon I’m guessing.

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Invade
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Invade »

JN23 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:13 pm

This is a bit off topic but who are the seven you mention?

Verstappen, Leclerc, Vettel, Russell, Ricciardo I’m guessing. Beyond that the two McLaren drivers and Ocon I’m guessing.
Pretty sure Bottas would comfortably best Ocon based on form this year.

Bottas has been close to Hamilton, but has been walloped twice. When it's been closed he's had the edge twice and lost out five times.

So it's a close but losing 2-5 effort and 2 destructions.

Now, there's some reasonable leeway in that performance difference for other drivers to fit into (and I'd say one is perhaps edging Hamilton): Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo, Russell. That's all I've definitely got this year who my scores suggest are better in qualifying than Bottas. But Sainz, Norris and Gasly are in the ballpark I suppose, but a bit behind. Ocon has no business. The Racing Point boys have no business. Albon certainly has no business. Latifi is getting a whoopin', and the Haas boys aren't particularly quick. So I guess that puts Bottas in the range of 6th-9th for qualifying — I'd say 6th. It's worth noting that the two times he got walloped, Hamilton put in two of the very best laps of his entire career. Bottas' Spa lap was actually good. Hamilton rates his Spa lap up there with his 2018 Singapore lap. I also have these two laps (Styrian and Spa) as the two single best laps in qualifying from the entire season, at least from Q3.

In the races, the difference between Hamilton and Bottas widens substantially relative to qualifying. There the likes of Sainz, Norris and even Gasly have thus far outperformed Bottas in my opinion, along with the aforementioned guys in qualifying, which puts Bottas about 9th-12th depending on how one views the season performances of perhaps Perez, Stroll and even Kimi. But I do have Bottas ahead of them for now so more or less I have the following...

Bottas in qualifying: 6th
Bottas in the race: 9th

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Exediron »

Invade wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:53 pm
Bottas in qualifying: 6th
Bottas in the race: 9th
I think that's a fair assessment. In other words, the rankings are actually just about right...
JN23 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:13 pm
This is a bit off topic but who are the seven you mention?

Verstappen, Leclerc, Vettel, Russell, Ricciardo I’m guessing. Beyond that the two McLaren drivers and Ocon I’m guessing.
You were right with the first seven; Verstappen, Leclerc, Russell and Ricciardo are the four I'm confident of, and Vettel and the two Macca drivers are the three I suspect might as well.

I realize Vettel is a bit of a gamble, but I think in the Mercedes I think he would look a lot better than he does right now. Gasly is also a possibility, if he looked like Toro Rosso Gasly instead of Red Bull Gasly. The Merc is a very stable car this year, so I think there's a good chance Gasly would look strong in it.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Invade »

Exediron wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:47 pm
Invade wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:53 pm
Bottas in qualifying: 6th
Bottas in the race: 9th
I think that's a fair assessment. In other words, the rankings are actually just about right...
JN23 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:13 pm
This is a bit off topic but who are the seven you mention?

Verstappen, Leclerc, Vettel, Russell, Ricciardo I’m guessing. Beyond that the two McLaren drivers and Ocon I’m guessing.
You were right with the first seven; Verstappen, Leclerc, Russell and Ricciardo are the four I'm confident of, and Vettel and the two Macca drivers are the three I suspect might as well.

I realize Vettel is a bit of a gamble, but I think in the Mercedes I think he would look a lot better than he does right now. Gasly is also a possibility, if he looked like Toro Rosso Gasly instead of Red Bull Gasly. The Merc is a very stable car this year, so I think there's a good chance Gasly would look strong in it.
I think on form Bottas is doing a better job than Vettel, but don't disagree that in that Mercedes he could be doing a better job than Bottas. No doubt that Vettel is struggling with the car characteristics this year, though Leclerc still deserves a heap of praise for gapping Vettel by an average of ~0.4s so far this season (Ham's gap to Bottas is about 0.13). A settled Vettel is certainly a pretty strong qualifier. I reckon we'll see Vettel really hand it to Stroll in qualifying next year.

Gasly has shown real speed, for sure. He's a bit of an enigma given his transformation since being dropped from Red Bull. He's not in league with Hamilton and Verstappen as some of the media ratings suggest but I am quite impressed with his this season.

PS, I think Gasly has ~0.3s on Kvyat.

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by pokerman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:05 pm
pokerman wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:07 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:25 pm
pokerman wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:12 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:09 am


Surely you see these facts prove what Exediron is saying?

Finishing 4th in a car that is not a Mercedes or a Red Bull is almost always going to be more impressive than Bottas coming 2nd in a car that should comfortably beat all others.
Another one not understanding what I wrote, I get attacked for my English so then use simple Maths and still there seems to be little understanding.
If everyone is struggling to understand you then perhaps you should look inward rather than outward.
Two people is everyone?

The average was based on positions 4-10, not on position 4, it would help if you actually read my post.

Then actually replying to your post, Bottas gets 7.64 for finishing second whilst a midfield driver gets 8.85 for finishing 4th, but I'm sure you are still going to tell me that Bottas' ranking of 9th place is still overated.
I think a 4th place in a midfield car is worth more than 1.5 out of 10 more than Botta finishing second absolutely.
Gasly is only 1.04 behind Hamilton in the seasons average so Bottas needing to be rated 2 to 3 points down on drivers finishing 4th if he's not able to beat Hamilton is basically full on Bottas bashing, which we are beginning to see more and more.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:32 pm
pokerman wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:07 pm
Then actually replying to your post, Bottas gets 7.64 for finishing second whilst a midfield driver gets 8.85 for finishing 4th, but I'm sure you are still going to tell me that Bottas' ranking of 9th place is still overated.
I'm not sure I'd say Bottas is overrated at 9th, but to be honest I don't think he's underrated there either.

The best thing you can say about Bottas is that he's been consistently close to Hamilton in qualifying. But consistently close -- he isn't beating Hamilton, just losing to him by about a tenth week in week out. I think there are four drivers I'd be confident would do a better job in qualifying, and a further three or so I think probably would.

In races, I believe well over half the grid would have done a job as good as Bottas. He has made no impression on Hamilton in races, and has allowed himself to be beaten by a far slower car on a number of occasions. His performance in Monza was pitiful, with Hamilton demonstrating that the car can indeed overtake if you're capable of overtaking.

I really think Bottas has been bad this year. Without Max's three DNFs, he wouldn't even be second in the WDC in a dominant car.
Given how close Bottas is in qualifying you're basically saying that there are presently 7 drivers that are as least as good as Hamilton in qualifying, I would say name those 7.

Race pace is something more difficult to measure but then again were not exactly having Hamilton as a high bar, any driver that Hamilton can beat is not that good, at least half the grid would be better.

Back to the ratings yes that was my question, the driver that sits second in the WDC has an overrated position of 9th, it's kind of crazy that with Gasly all you have to do with him is give him a much weaker teammate and he goes from not being a top 10 driver to be ranked at #4.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by pokerman »

JN23 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:13 pm
Exediron wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:32 pm
pokerman wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:07 pm
Then actually replying to your post, Bottas gets 7.64 for finishing second whilst a midfield driver gets 8.85 for finishing 4th, but I'm sure you are still going to tell me that Bottas' ranking of 9th place is still overated.
I'm not sure I'd say Bottas is overrated at 9th, but to be honest I don't think he's underrated there either.

The best thing you can say about Bottas is that he's been consistently close to Hamilton in qualifying. But consistently close -- he isn't beating Hamilton, just losing to him by about a tenth week in week out. I think there are four drivers I'd be confident would do a better job in qualifying, and a further three or so I think probably would.

In races, I believe well over half the grid would have done a job as good as Bottas. He has made no impression on Hamilton in races, and has allowed himself to be beaten by a far slower car on a number of occasions. His performance in Monza was pitiful, with Hamilton demonstrating that the car can indeed overtake if you're capable of overtaking.

I really think Bottas has been bad this year. Without Max's three DNFs, he wouldn't even be second in the WDC in a dominant car.
This is a bit off topic but who are the seven you mention?

Verstappen, Leclerc, Vettel, Russell, Ricciardo I’m guessing. Beyond that the two McLaren drivers and Ocon I’m guessing.
Edit: Changed my mind on Vettel.
Last edited by pokerman on Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:47 pm
Invade wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:53 pm
Bottas in qualifying: 6th
Bottas in the race: 9th
I think that's a fair assessment. In other words, the rankings are actually just about right...
JN23 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:13 pm
This is a bit off topic but who are the seven you mention?

Verstappen, Leclerc, Vettel, Russell, Ricciardo I’m guessing. Beyond that the two McLaren drivers and Ocon I’m guessing.
You were right with the first seven; Verstappen, Leclerc, Russell and Ricciardo are the four I'm confident of, and Vettel and the two Macca drivers are the three I suspect might as well.

I realize Vettel is a bit of a gamble, but I think in the Mercedes I think he would look a lot better than he does right now. Gasly is also a possibility, if he looked like Toro Rosso Gasly instead of Red Bull Gasly. The Merc is a very stable car this year, so I think there's a good chance Gasly would look strong in it.
The only driver that Sainz has out qualified is Kvyat who presently is making Gasly look good and Sainz would give Hamilton a hard time, it goes beyond ridiculous.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:04 pm
Given how close Bottas is in qualifying you're basically saying that there are presently 7 drivers that are as least as good as Hamilton in qualifying, I would say name those 7.
I'm not saying that. I'm saying there are four drivers that are at least as good as Hamilton in qualifying, and three more I think might be just a little bit behind (and I already named the drivers before you ever posted that).

Records aside, I don't think Hamilton is an exceptional qualifier at this stage in his career -- or possibly ever. He matched Alonso in his rookie season (another top driver not known for qualifying), was only slightly ahead of Kovelainen when adjusting for fuel, beat Button (known as a poor qualifier), and then has not looked compellingly faster in outright pace than either Rosberg or Bottas.

There simply is not a body of proof that actually suggests Hamilton is an exceptional qualifier. In many other areas I consider him the best on the grid, but not that one.

I would not claim that I think there are four drivers -- or even any -- who would be likely to beat Hamilton in a championship.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by mikeyg123 »

It's weird to say given his huge number of poles but qualifying is probably Hamilton's biggest weakness.

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Invade »

Hamilton's qualifying pace isn't as metronomic as Verstappen's or Alonso's as far as I can tell. He produces more blips and average performances throughout a season, though in 2020 so far he's been quite metronomic. There are times when Hamilton gets a good whoopin' from his teammate and I remember it happening fairly often against Rosberg. Bottas occasionally hands him a beating too, though rare.

What Hamilton does have is the ability to put in truly special qualifying performances and they happen frequently enough for it to be a real X-factor in his qualifying toolkit. His ability in the wet also allows him to generally separate in wet qualifying sessions, though his H2H here is not as dominant as one might think and it's in recent years where he's had a stranglehold on every wet qualifying session. But a qualifying performance the likes of which he put on at the Styrian GP session after session, culminating in the destruction of the field, is a good example of how Hamilton on his day can outclass the field.

In qualifying right now, I would expect Verstappen to beat Hamilton overall due to his unwavering metronomic pace, but he's had chances in the past for pole positions and fluffed them to the opportunistic Ricciardo. Perhaps Verstappen has an awesome basic baseline but the likes of Hamilton and Leclerc perhaps put in more standout and "unbeatable" performances.

Leclerc put up against Hamilton could and maybe even would best him in qualifying and I wouldn't be so sure that Russell wouldn't do the same.

I don't think Ricciardo would beat Hamilton in qualifying, who tends to have even more performance blips than Hamilton does.

Hamilton has a much less stellar record against his teammates than Alonso did, or Schumacher. Verstappen is in that bracket of more or less shutting out his teammate, if we give him some leeway of taking time to get up to max speed given his exceptionally early entry into the sport. These guys have/had a less volatile baseline of speed.

Leclerc is currently smashing Vettel by a shocking margin, so it will be interesting to keep an eye on that going forward. At some point we may have to admit that his speed is simply freakish and that he can extract maximum pace across a wide range of car performance. Russell is a bit of an unknown but he's called Mr.Saturday for a reason right now.

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by WHoff78 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:58 pm
It's weird to say given his huge number of poles but qualifying is probably Hamilton's biggest weakness.
Can’t say I agree with this – although I do think over the last 5+ years his consistency on Sunday has improved steadily. He just doesn’t make many mistakes these days, although arguably is racing with less pressure as he racks up the wins, and greater confidence.

I’ll admit that when the pressure increases, in the past he has been less consistent in qualifying and more prone to a slip perhaps, but it’s not like Max has much pressure on his laps from within the team so hard to be sure who is most on the limit at various times. But I very much think we see Hamilton pure one lap pace come to the fore when his main competitor is not his team mate, and I hope we get to see that again in Hamilton’s career. I also hope that Bottas doesn’t retire if at some stage he is replaced at Mercedes as would be interested how he stacks up against another top driver after spending 4-5 years plus at Mercedes. I’ve no doubt that he has all the tools he needs to develop in that environment, and it can’t do a driver of his caliber any harm.

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by WHoff78 »

In fairness he did also point out that qualifying was an area he had to work on this season, so that does validate your point somewhat! I think that comment is more short-term and relative to Bottas though, and you could say so far so good for 2020. Wherever you land, for the success he's had, his hunger and desire to improve further and keep on winning probably provides a little clue for why he tops those record lists. Some will always look to the car, but you can't fault is attitude to racing.

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Invade »

WHoff78 wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:03 am
In fairness he did also point out that qualifying was an area he had to work on this season, so that does validate your point somewhat! I think that comment is more short-term and relative to Bottas though, and you could say so far so good for 2020. Wherever you land, for the success he's had, his hunger and desire to improve further and keep on winning probably provides a little clue for why he tops those record lists. Some will always look to the car, but you can't fault is attitude to racing.
I don't really see why Hamilton can't go on for many more years at Mercedes. He doesn't stand still and appears to have passion for his craft. But he's in a blessed position in terms of competitiveness, and I don't see that really changing for the next many years. He'll probably always be in a shout for race wins.

I can foresee a circumstance in which Hamilton is gone within the next 2-3 years, and that's if Verstappen is so frustrated at Red Bull that he throws all his force behind trying to get into Mercedes. If Hamilton stuck around for the challenge and got beaten, he might call it a day there and then. However, I don't really see Verstappen trying to force this until the 2023 season. I have to imagine he'll stick around for the first year of the new regs to see if RBR can hit it big.

But the continued absence of news regarding the contracts of Toto and Lewis gets more and more curious.

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:47 pm
pokerman wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:04 pm
Given how close Bottas is in qualifying you're basically saying that there are presently 7 drivers that are as least as good as Hamilton in qualifying, I would say name those 7.
I'm not saying that. I'm saying there are four drivers that are at least as good as Hamilton in qualifying, and three more I think might be just a little bit behind (and I already named the drivers before you ever posted that).

Records aside, I don't think Hamilton is an exceptional qualifier at this stage in his career -- or possibly ever. He matched Alonso in his rookie season (another top driver not known for qualifying), was only slightly ahead of Kovelainen when adjusting for fuel, beat Button (known as a poor qualifier), and then has not looked compellingly faster in outright pace than either Rosberg or Bottas.

There simply is not a body of proof that actually suggests Hamilton is an exceptional qualifier. In many other areas I consider him the best on the grid, but not that one.

I would not claim that I think there are four drivers -- or even any -- who would be likely to beat Hamilton in a championship.
I think you need to see the list of fastest drivers that dates back to the 80s when dismissing drivers as not being good qualifiers, it's a cross reference of qualifying performance.

If we go back to the turn of the century two drivers noted for being good qualifiers were Trulli and Fisichella, these being early teammates of Alonso but also teammates of Kovalainen and he out qualified them both. Kovalainen was a qualifying expert as were Rosberg and Bottas, these being drivers that beat their teammates in qualifying.

Alonso himself tended to wash his teammates in qualifying and he himself is high on that qualifying list. If we go into the next decade we basically have the top 3 drivers as being Alonso, Vettel and Hamilton, Hamilton has proven himself to be a better qualifier of the three. He edged out Alonso when he was a rookie but then we have Button who Hamilton out qualified better than what Alonso managed to do, Alonso himself said he might not be the fastest over one lap a few years ago, now who might that be referencing given who has beat Alonso post Hamilton?

Onto Vettel and Alonso out qualified Kimi and Massa more convincingly than Vettel out qualified KImi, so the narrative that Hamilton was never a great qualifier is false because who was better?

In recent years other strong qualifiers have come to the fore like Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo and Russell, Verstappen and Leclerc obviously very strong, Ricciardo very good but he did get beat by Verstappen, Russell still unproven at a higher level.

Beyond these 4 then you really are starting to scrape the barrel to get to 7, let's remind ourselves that Bottas is a little more than a tenth slower than Hamilton in qualifying, we have Sainz who is simply not a great qualifier, the only driver he has beat is Kvyat who presently is making Gasly look like a qualifying superstar.

Sainz got beat by the Hulk who lost to Ricciardo who lost to Verstappen, when Sainz was announced at Ferrari, I and a few others said he would get beat easily by Leclerc in qualifying because Sainz is not a good qualifier yet we're thinking he would give Hamilton a hard time because Hamilton is not really that good in qualifying?

Presently Sainz is life and death with a rookie.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:43 pm
In recent years other strong qualifiers have come to the fore like Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo and Russell, Verstappen and Leclerc obviously very strong, Ricciardo very good but he did get beat by Verstappen, Russell still unproven at a higher level.

Beyond these 4 then you really are starting to scrape the barrel to get to 7, let's remind ourselves that Bottas is a little more than a tenth slower than Hamilton in qualifying, we have Sainz who is simply not a great qualifier, the only driver he has beat is Kvyat who presently is making Gasly look like a qualifying superstar.
You seem to consider Bottas being consistently close but never ahead to be more impressive than I do. A gap of 0.150 that's made up of half ahead and half behind is more impressive than one made up of always being that far behind.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by WHoff78 »

Exediron wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:51 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:43 pm
In recent years other strong qualifiers have come to the fore like Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo and Russell, Verstappen and Leclerc obviously very strong, Ricciardo very good but he did get beat by Verstappen, Russell still unproven at a higher level.

Beyond these 4 then you really are starting to scrape the barrel to get to 7, let's remind ourselves that Bottas is a little more than a tenth slower than Hamilton in qualifying, we have Sainz who is simply not a great qualifier, the only driver he has beat is Kvyat who presently is making Gasly look like a qualifying superstar.
You seem to consider Bottas being consistently close but never ahead to be more impressive than I do. A gap of 0.150 that's made up of half ahead and half behind is more impressive than one made up of always being that far behind.
Would it not suggest that both are more consistently getting the max out of the car? Seems unlikely that they are both dropping/losing similar amounts at the same circuits.

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:51 pm
pokerman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:43 pm
In recent years other strong qualifiers have come to the fore like Verstappen, Leclerc, Ricciardo and Russell, Verstappen and Leclerc obviously very strong, Ricciardo very good but he did get beat by Verstappen, Russell still unproven at a higher level.

Beyond these 4 then you really are starting to scrape the barrel to get to 7, let's remind ourselves that Bottas is a little more than a tenth slower than Hamilton in qualifying, we have Sainz who is simply not a great qualifier, the only driver he has beat is Kvyat who presently is making Gasly look like a qualifying superstar.
You seem to consider Bottas being consistently close but never ahead to be more impressive than I do. A gap of 0.150 that's made up of half ahead and half behind is more impressive than one made up of always being that far behind.
Averages never quite work like that, if you're 0.15s behind then you're not going to end up with a 50:50 qualifying record, somehow Sainz who struggles to beat teammates in qualifying would go 50:50 with Hamilton?

In respect to Bottas this season 5 of the 9 qualifying sessions have been within one tenth one way or the other.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:29 pm
Averages never quite work like that, if you're 0.15s behind then you're not going to end up with a 50:50 qualifying record, somehow Sainz who struggles to beat teammates in qualifying would go 50:50 with Hamilton?

In respect to Bottas this season 5 of the 9 qualifying sessions have been within one tenth one way or the other.
Get over your obsession with Sainz. Refute the first four if you want to go at it; I put the latter three in the category that I think they might do a better job than Bottas, not that I was confident they would.
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:57 am
pokerman wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 11:29 pm
Averages never quite work like that, if you're 0.15s behind then you're not going to end up with a 50:50 qualifying record, somehow Sainz who struggles to beat teammates in qualifying would go 50:50 with Hamilton?

In respect to Bottas this season 5 of the 9 qualifying sessions have been within one tenth one way or the other.
Get over your obsession with Sainz. Refute the first four if you want to go at it; I put the latter three in the category that I think they might do a better job than Bottas, not that I was confident they would.
I'm clealry refuting the 7 moreso than the 4 and wasn't Sainz part of the 7?
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by WHoff78 »

Regarding the 4 mentioned above, I think we still need to see more from LeClerc, let alone Russell. Not that he could have done more to date, I just feel he's difficult to judge. I actually think that there may be little between him and Vettel with both operating at their peak and with full support from the team. LeClerc takes more risks at this stage and drives more on the edge, and he would have to scale that back if he was a serious championship contender as a couple of non-finishes would quickly see him out of contention. Ferrari have clearly gone backwards, as we have seen Vettel lose confidence and you have to wonder if some of that is team dynamics on top of the obvious engine issues.

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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Invade »

https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2020/09 ... on-report/

We have a gem of analysis here which supposes that Vettel and Hamilton (and Sainz) were more or less of equal class during the 2019 season. Having watched the season and looking at the performances of Vettel and Hamilton, I find this to be a very strange outcome, with Hamilton comfortably outclassing Vettel, and with Ferrari and their drivers generally making huge errors and showing erratic performance. Vettel also beat out Leclerc, though I can at least envisage how the model might arrive to that output.

It appears that the model builds up a memory of performance and locks in a general band of ability and then proves itself to be woefully maladaptive and largely inadequate in the face of changing performance, in which a driver can live on past performance, rest on their laurels so to speak, even in the midst of what to the majority of observers is abundantly blatant decline, or at least a prolonged loss of form.


So, tell me, were Vettel and Hamilton performing at an equal level in 2019?

mikeyg123
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by mikeyg123 »

Invade wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:53 am
https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2020/09 ... on-report/

We have a gem of analysis here which supposes that Vettel and Hamilton (and Sainz) were more or less of equal class during the 2019 season. Having watched the season and looking at the performances of Vettel and Hamilton, I find this to be a very strange outcome, with Hamilton comfortably outclassing Vettel, and with Ferrari and their drivers generally making huge errors and showing erratic performance. Vettel also beat out Leclerc, though I can at least envisage how the model might arrive to that output.

It appears that the model builds up a memory of performance and locks in a general band of ability and then proves itself to be woefully maladaptive and largely inadequate in the face of changing performance, in which a driver can live on past performance, rest on their laurels so to speak, even in the midst of what to the majority of observers is abundantly blatant decline, or at least a prolonged loss of form.


So, tell me, were Vettel and Hamilton performing at an equal level in 2019?
No lol. The last time anyone could caim Vettel and Hamilton were performing at even a similar level was 2016.

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Invade
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Re: 2020 Season - Driver Ratings

Post by Invade »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:28 am
Invade wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:53 am
https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2020/09 ... on-report/

We have a gem of analysis here which supposes that Vettel and Hamilton (and Sainz) were more or less of equal class during the 2019 season. Having watched the season and looking at the performances of Vettel and Hamilton, I find this to be a very strange outcome, with Hamilton comfortably outclassing Vettel, and with Ferrari and their drivers generally making huge errors and showing erratic performance. Vettel also beat out Leclerc, though I can at least envisage how the model might arrive to that output.

It appears that the model builds up a memory of performance and locks in a general band of ability and then proves itself to be woefully maladaptive and largely inadequate in the face of changing performance, in which a driver can live on past performance, rest on their laurels so to speak, even in the midst of what to the majority of observers is abundantly blatant decline, or at least a prolonged loss of form.


So, tell me, were Vettel and Hamilton performing at an equal level in 2019?
No lol. The last time anyone could caim Vettel and Hamilton were performing at even a similar level was 2016.
The same model has Vettel further ahead of Hamilton in 2017 than Hamilton is ahead of Vettel for 2019. Vettel is judged to be clearly the #1 driver of 2017.

(IIRC, initially it was close between Vettel and Hamilton for 2017, but based on the performance of the following year the scores were adjusted, giving Vettel something like a 0.4 point edge.)

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