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 Post subject: PREDICT the next 5 WDCs
PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 12:06 pm 
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As per title...


Frankly, I only have belief in two teams during the proposed time period even in the face of radical new regulations. I see two men winnings WDCs in that period. Hamilton and Verstappen. Perhaps Russell can bag one if he gets the Mercedes seat in the future.

I have a lot of faith in Red Bull organisationally and am quite convinced the partnership with Honda will continue to flourish.

Mercedes are simply a Juggernaut who at worst will be fighting for Championships and at best might run away with them.

2020: Hamilton (or no champ)
2021: Verstappen
2022: Hamilton (retires)
2023: Verstappen
2024: Verstappen (or Russell)

This is obviously a very long-term projection and a lot can happen.

WCC...

2020: Mercedes
2021: Mercedes
2022: Mercedes
2023: RBR
2024: RBR


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 12:13 pm 
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I think Leclerc will come close once or twice. As a talent, I'm not sure he's a level below Hamilton and Verstappen. He has the speed and talent to help guide Ferrari into being a quite formiddable package, but Verstappen and RBR+Honda are further down the line of becoming a fierce winning machine and Mercedes are firmly established as king.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 1:13 pm 
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2020- Bottas (a reduced season, he will make a quick start. Hamilton usual slow start. Then Hamilton will have a bit of mechical bad luck with so few races he won't be able to recover. 2016 re-run)

2021- Hamilton

2022- Hamilton

2023- Verstappen

2024- Verstappen


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 1:51 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
2020- Bottas (a reduced season, he will make a quick start. Hamilton usual slow start. Then Hamilton will have a bit of mechical bad luck with so few races he won't be able to recover. 2016 re-run)


Bottas is 11/2 or 6/1 with some bookies to win the title. With the shortened season I think that’s worth a bet, as Bottas will never get as a good a chance you’d think.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 3:53 pm 
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JN23 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
2020- Bottas (a reduced season, he will make a quick start. Hamilton usual slow start. Then Hamilton will have a bit of mechical bad luck with so few races he won't be able to recover. 2016 re-run)


Bottas is 11/2 or 6/1 with some bookies to win the title. With the shortened season I think that’s worth a bet, as Bottas will never get as a good a chance you’d think.

Yes this I wrote nearly 3 months ago in the PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Mercedes thread:
Covalent wrote:
I'm the one who voted for Valtteri. It's in part a wish and in part a very serious prediction, and here's the reasoning. First of all it's evident that he's gotten closer and closer by each season. With all else equal (including reliability) the trend says this probably won't be enough, but that's where I get to the second point. Usually Valtteri has been stronger during the first half of the season, and with the Corona flu possibly escalating into a full-blown pandemic, it's probable we will only see a partial season which could mean Hamilton doesn't have enough races to overcome any deficit in the points table.

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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 4:27 pm 
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The only way I see Bottas winning the WDC this year is if it's a very short season and Hamilton gets the short end of the reliability stick. TBH, I think RBR will be close enough that if Hamilton can't do it, Max will, luck being equal. We've lost some of Mercedes' strongest tracks from the calendar already, no?

A lot has to fall into place for Bottas to win. Have his chances improved? Probably. Can we expect Hamilton to keep up the level of the last two years? Is Bottas still improving? Perhaps no to the former and yes to the latter, but I also think that as time goes on the Mercedes management is increasingly in Hamilton's corner. All "luck" being equal, should their level of performance be similar, I fully expect an orchestrated title hunt in the favour of Hamilton at this stage, with #7 on the line.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 4:41 pm 
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Invade wrote:
The only way I see Bottas winning the WDC this year is if it's a very short season and Hamilton gets the short end of the reliability stick. TBH, I think RBR will be close enough that if Hamilton can't do it, Max will, luck being equal. We've lost some of Mercedes' strongest tracks from the calendar already, no?

A lot has to fall into place for Bottas to win. Have his chances improved? Probably. Can we expect Hamilton to keep up the level of the last two years? Is Bottas still improving? Perhaps no to the former and yes to the latter, but I also think that as time goes on the Mercedes management is increasingly in Hamilton's corner. All "luck" being equal, should their level of performance be similar, I fully expect an orchestrated title hunt in the favour of Hamilton at this stage, with #7 on the line.


I agree with all this. Bottas not only has to beat Hamilton - he has to beat Verstappen as well. Verstappen and Red Bull, for example, were tremendously quick at the Red Bull Ring last year. If two races are hosted there, that could easily mean two Red Bull wins. And that would be at the start of the season, when Hamilton 'warms up'.

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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 5:43 pm 
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Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Invade wrote:
The only way I see Bottas winning the WDC this year is if it's a very short season and Hamilton gets the short end of the reliability stick. TBH, I think RBR will be close enough that if Hamilton can't do it, Max will, luck being equal. We've lost some of Mercedes' strongest tracks from the calendar already, no?

A lot has to fall into place for Bottas to win. Have his chances improved? Probably. Can we expect Hamilton to keep up the level of the last two years? Is Bottas still improving? Perhaps no to the former and yes to the latter, but I also think that as time goes on the Mercedes management is increasingly in Hamilton's corner. All "luck" being equal, should their level of performance be similar, I fully expect an orchestrated title hunt in the favour of Hamilton at this stage, with #7 on the line.


I agree with all this. Bottas not only has to beat Hamilton - he has to beat Verstappen as well. Verstappen and Red Bull, for example, were tremendously quick at the Red Bull Ring last year. If two races are hosted there, that could easily mean two Red Bull wins. And that would be at the start of the season, when Hamilton 'warms up'.


Verstappen and Red Bull were quick in Austria, as they were at other tracks at altitude in Mexico and Brazil but it was probably Merc’s worst weekend of the year for car performance due their difficulties with cooling which I think they sorted out after that weekend.

With an improved Red Bull though, they might be the team to beat in Austria. I think they’re quite an unknown package heading into the season.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 5:45 pm 
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Covalent wrote:
JN23 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
2020- Bottas (a reduced season, he will make a quick start. Hamilton usual slow start. Then Hamilton will have a bit of mechical bad luck with so few races he won't be able to recover. 2016 re-run)


Bottas is 11/2 or 6/1 with some bookies to win the title. With the shortened season I think that’s worth a bet, as Bottas will never get as a good a chance you’d think.

Yes this I wrote nearly 3 months ago in the PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Mercedes thread:
Covalent wrote:
I'm the one who voted for Valtteri. It's in part a wish and in part a very serious prediction, and here's the reasoning. First of all it's evident that he's gotten closer and closer by each season. With all else equal (including reliability) the trend says this probably won't be enough, but that's where I get to the second point. Usually Valtteri has been stronger during the first half of the season, and with the Corona flu possibly escalating into a full-blown pandemic, it's probable we will only see a partial season which could mean Hamilton doesn't have enough races to overcome any deficit in the points table.


A good call that far back regarding only a partial season.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 7:22 pm 
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I foresee a season of European double headers...

2x Silverstone
2x Austria
2x France (alternate layouts)
2x AD (I can see money making it happen)
2x Monza

That’s 10 races and then we may head into Asia in the winter once Europe is too cold. That will depend a lot on the virus. Hungary and Spa could be possible too.

If that was the season, it could really devalue the title. If someone like Lewis wins it that wouldn’t really matter but if a one time WDC won it like that they might always be a question mark over it.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 8:23 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
I foresee a season of European double headers...

2x Silverstone
2x Austria
2x France (alternate layouts)
2x AD (I can see money making it happen)
2x Monza

That’s 10 races and then we may head into Asia in the winter once Europe is too cold. That will depend a lot on the virus. Hungary and Spa could be possible too.

If that was the season, it could really devalue the title. If someone like Lewis wins it that wouldn’t really matter but if a one time WDC won it like that they might always be a question mark over it.


Please God no, not two races at Paul Ricard :lol:

At the rate we are going, it may be the case a lot of Asian countries won't want the virus being reintroduced into their environment. I think you could be right in an all European championship. Hopefully we can squeeze the likes of Spain and Germany in as well (Though I don't know if they're already ruled out).

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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 8:51 pm 
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Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
I foresee a season of European double headers...

2x Silverstone
2x Austria
2x France (alternate layouts)
2x AD (I can see money making it happen)
2x Monza

That’s 10 races and then we may head into Asia in the winter once Europe is too cold. That will depend a lot on the virus. Hungary and Spa could be possible too.

If that was the season, it could really devalue the title. If someone like Lewis wins it that wouldn’t really matter but if a one time WDC won it like that they might always be a question mark over it.


Please God no, not two races at Paul Ricard :lol:

At the rate we are going, it may be the case a lot of Asian countries won't want the virus being reintroduced into their environment. I think you could be right in an all European championship. Hopefully we can squeeze the likes of Spain and Germany in as well (Though I don't know if they're already ruled out).


Hockenheim are willing to hold races and seem to flexible about it. There's talk it'll replace Silverstone if the UK quarantine is enforced.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 9:18 pm 
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2020: Verstappen (shorter season, some of Mercs best tracks are off the calendar)

2021: Hamilton

2022: Leclerc

2023: Russell

2024: Verstappen


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:07 am 
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I think Max has the ability in bundles, but not sure about the mentality - however I'm loath to leave him out of the list.
Leclerc is a talent, but don't see his ability being a match for Hamilton, Verstappen, and hopefully Russell
.
2020 - Hamilton
2021 - Hamilton
2022 - Russell / Verstappen
2023 - Russell / Verstappen
2024 - Russell / Verstappen


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:37 am 
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2020 Hamilton
2021 Hamilton
2022 Verstappen
2023 Leclerc
2024 Leclerc


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 11:15 am 
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JN23 wrote:
Covalent wrote:
JN23 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
2020- Bottas (a reduced season, he will make a quick start. Hamilton usual slow start. Then Hamilton will have a bit of mechical bad luck with so few races he won't be able to recover. 2016 re-run)


Bottas is 11/2 or 6/1 with some bookies to win the title. With the shortened season I think that’s worth a bet, as Bottas will never get as a good a chance you’d think.

Yes this I wrote nearly 3 months ago in the PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Mercedes thread:
Covalent wrote:
I'm the one who voted for Valtteri. It's in part a wish and in part a very serious prediction, and here's the reasoning. First of all it's evident that he's gotten closer and closer by each season. With all else equal (including reliability) the trend says this probably won't be enough, but that's where I get to the second point. Usually Valtteri has been stronger during the first half of the season, and with the Corona flu possibly escalating into a full-blown pandemic, it's probable we will only see a partial season which could mean Hamilton doesn't have enough races to overcome any deficit in the points table.


A good call that far back regarding only a partial season.

Cheers, seemed like a no-brainer even back then.

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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 2:21 pm 
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This is what I'd like to see.

2020: Hamilton
2021: Hamilton
2022: Verstappen
2023: Leclerc
2024: Russell

Of course I wouldn't be too disappointed if Hamilton won all 5 titles but let's spread the love, I could always write off the latter titles to Hamilton being too old that's if he's still around, with 8 titles, 100+ wins and 100+ poles he may decide to retire?

Then going forward we have the Verstappen/Leclerc/Russell era.

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PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2020 2:19 am 
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pokerman wrote:
This is what I'd like to see.

2020: Hamilton
2021: Hamilton
2022: Verstappen
2023: Leclerc
2024: Russell

Of course I wouldn't be too disappointed if Hamilton won all 5 titles but let's spread the love, I could always write off the latter titles to Hamilton being too old that's if he's still around, with 8 titles, 100+ wins and 100+ poles he may decide to retire?

Then going forward we have the Verstappen/Leclerc/Russell era.


This seems pretty reasonable to me. I am thinking Verstappen may not sneak through for a championship if Ferrari can clean up their act and Charles keeps getting better. I could see Charles and Carlos Jr. taking Team Red to a couple of WCCs and a couple of WDCs for Charles.

Max only beat Charles by 14 points in 2019 and it would have only been a two point margin but for the Vettel/Leclerc wreck in Brazil.

I am not sure that Merc will have the next championship caliber driver in place when Lewis retires.

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PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2020 11:49 am 
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Mort Canard wrote:
pokerman wrote:
This is what I'd like to see.

2020: Hamilton
2021: Hamilton
2022: Verstappen
2023: Leclerc
2024: Russell

Of course I wouldn't be too disappointed if Hamilton won all 5 titles but let's spread the love, I could always write off the latter titles to Hamilton being too old that's if he's still around, with 8 titles, 100+ wins and 100+ poles he may decide to retire?

Then going forward we have the Verstappen/Leclerc/Russell era.


This seems pretty reasonable to me. I am thinking Verstappen may not sneak through for a championship if Ferrari can clean up their act and Charles keeps getting better. I could see Charles and Carlos Jr. taking Team Red to a couple of WCCs and a couple of WDCs for Charles.

Max only beat Charles by 14 points in 2019 and it would have only been a two point margin but for the Vettel/Leclerc wreck in Brazil.

I am not sure that Merc will have the next championship caliber driver in place when Lewis retires.

No Russell was a bit of a punt by me, in regards to Verstappen and Leclerc, the Red Bull was the 3rd best car last year.

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PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2020 11:52 pm 
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pokerman wrote:
No Russell was a bit of a punt by me, in regards to Verstappen and Leclerc, the Red Bull was the 3rd best car last year.

I think it went back and forth a lot between RBR and Ferrari. After the engine rule clarification the Red Bull was definitely the better car, and it was always better at downforce tracks.

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PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2020 11:58 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
No Russell was a bit of a punt by me, in regards to Verstappen and Leclerc, the Red Bull was the 3rd best car last year.

I think it went back and forth a lot between RBR and Ferrari. After the engine rule clarification the Red Bull was definitely the better car, and it was always better at downforce tracks.


But was the Red Bull the 2nd best car on balance? I don't think it was particularly close. Not that the gap was huge but there's little doubt in my mind that Ferrari had the better car even if it was through tricks. Max put together a heck of a season and only beat out Leclerc by 14 points and the Ferrari drivers left a lot more points on the table.


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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 12:11 am 
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Invade wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
No Russell was a bit of a punt by me, in regards to Verstappen and Leclerc, the Red Bull was the 3rd best car last year.

I think it went back and forth a lot between RBR and Ferrari. After the engine rule clarification the Red Bull was definitely the better car, and it was always better at downforce tracks.


But was the Red Bull the 2nd best car on balance? I don't think it was particularly close. Not that the gap was huge but there's little doubt in my mind that Ferrari had the better car even if it was through tricks. Max put together a heck of a season and only beat out Leclerc by 14 points and the Ferrari drivers left a lot more points on the table.

Yeah it sort of goes through my head that the Ferrari drivers made more mistakes yet Verstappen only just beat them, Leclerc dropped about 12 points after Vettel crashed him out in Brazil.

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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 12:57 am 
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pokerman wrote:
Invade wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
No Russell was a bit of a punt by me, in regards to Verstappen and Leclerc, the Red Bull was the 3rd best car last year.

I think it went back and forth a lot between RBR and Ferrari. After the engine rule clarification the Red Bull was definitely the better car, and it was always better at downforce tracks.


But was the Red Bull the 2nd best car on balance? I don't think it was particularly close. Not that the gap was huge but there's little doubt in my mind that Ferrari had the better car even if it was through tricks. Max put together a heck of a season and only beat out Leclerc by 14 points and the Ferrari drivers left a lot more points on the table.

Yeah it sort of goes through my head that the Ferrari drivers made more mistakes yet Verstappen only just beat them, Leclerc dropped about 12 points after Vettel crashed him out in Brazil.

That's probably true. I certainly think the Ferrari drivers dropped more points than Max by far.

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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 1:11 am 
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I'm surprised Leclerc is not getting more love. To me his first two years in F1 have been more impressive than Verstappen's. Yeah I know all the rhetoric about Verstappen not having driven a car until he got to F1, but I still maintain Leclerc going to Sauber and immediately demolishing Ericsson, then after that starting the year as the number 2 driver at Ferrari, he simply outperformed Vettel and imo basically kicked him out of the team. That rings a bell wtih me.
If Ferrari manages to build the fastest car I have no doubt he will win the title and he might win a lot more than one. It's crazy that some people are overlooking him. The guy is just really good and he will only get better. If I'm Hamilton that's who I am the most worried about, Redbull with their one driver takes all approach are only going to be hurting themselves in the process imo. We shall see though.


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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 4:31 am 
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kleefton wrote:
I'm surprised Leclerc is not getting more love. To me his first two years in F1 have been more impressive than Verstappen's. Yeah I know all the rhetoric about Verstappen not having driven a car until he got to F1, but I still maintain Leclerc going to Sauber and immediately demolishing Ericsson, then after that starting the year as the number 2 driver at Ferrari, he simply outperformed Vettel and imo basically kicked him out of the team. That rings a bell wtih me.
If Ferrari manages to build the fastest car I have no doubt he will win the title and he might win a lot more than one. It's crazy that some people are overlooking him. The guy is just really good and he will only get better. If I'm Hamilton that's who I am the most worried about, Redbull with their one driver takes all approach are only going to be hurting themselves in the process imo. We shall see though.

I'm with you on believing in Leclerc's potential. To me, he is every bit as fast as Verstappen, and learning at an extreme rate. But he hasn't proven himself yet, and I believe that's why people are holding back on him. His last season was marked by impressive highs and painful lows, and he has yet to string together the sort of clean season that one typically needs for a championship. Max has moved fully through his early years of throwing away points and is now quite consistent; Charles still has yet to do so.

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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 7:20 am 
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Invade wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
No Russell was a bit of a punt by me, in regards to Verstappen and Leclerc, the Red Bull was the 3rd best car last year.

I think it went back and forth a lot between RBR and Ferrari. After the engine rule clarification the Red Bull was definitely the better car, and it was always better at downforce tracks.


But was the Red Bull the 2nd best car on balance? I don't think it was particularly close. Not that the gap was huge but there's little doubt in my mind that Ferrari had the better car even if it was through tricks. Max put together a heck of a season and only beat out Leclerc by 14 points and the Ferrari drivers left a lot more points on the table.

Ferrari better: Bahrain, China, Baku, Spain, Canada, France, Belgium, Monza, Singapore, Japan, Russia (11)

Red Bull better: Australia, Monaco, Austria, Silverstone, Germany, Hungary, Mexico, USA, Brazil, Abu Dhabi (10)

Both Ferrari drivers also lost one win as a direct result of unreliability (Charles in Bahrain, Seb in Russia) while Max did not.

I used to believe that Ferrari was definitely better than Red Bull in 2019, but having analyzed the season carefully it was much closer than I initially though.


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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 7:35 am 
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KingVoid wrote:
Invade wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
No Russell was a bit of a punt by me, in regards to Verstappen and Leclerc, the Red Bull was the 3rd best car last year.

I think it went back and forth a lot between RBR and Ferrari. After the engine rule clarification the Red Bull was definitely the better car, and it was always better at downforce tracks.


But was the Red Bull the 2nd best car on balance? I don't think it was particularly close. Not that the gap was huge but there's little doubt in my mind that Ferrari had the better car even if it was through tricks. Max put together a heck of a season and only beat out Leclerc by 14 points and the Ferrari drivers left a lot more points on the table.

Ferrari better: Bahrain, China, Baku, Spain, Canada, France, Belgium, Monza, Singapore, Japan, Russia (11)

Red Bull better: Australia, Monaco, Austria, Silverstone, Germany, Hungary, Mexico, USA, Brazil, Abu Dhabi (10)

Both Ferrari drivers also lost one win as a direct result of unreliability (Charles in Bahrain, Seb in Russia) while Max did not.

I used to believe that Ferrari was definitely better than Red Bull in 2019, but having analyzed the season carefully it was much closer than I initially though.


It’s interesting when you do it race-by-race, how close it comes. Red Bull faster in Germany though?


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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 7:45 am 
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KingVoid wrote:
Invade wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
No Russell was a bit of a punt by me, in regards to Verstappen and Leclerc, the Red Bull was the 3rd best car last year.

I think it went back and forth a lot between RBR and Ferrari. After the engine rule clarification the Red Bull was definitely the better car, and it was always better at downforce tracks.


But was the Red Bull the 2nd best car on balance? I don't think it was particularly close. Not that the gap was huge but there's little doubt in my mind that Ferrari had the better car even if it was through tricks. Max put together a heck of a season and only beat out Leclerc by 14 points and the Ferrari drivers left a lot more points on the table.

Ferrari better: Bahrain, China, Baku, Spain, Canada, France, Belgium, Monza, Singapore, Japan, Russia (11)

Red Bull better: Australia, Monaco, Austria, Silverstone, Germany, Hungary, Mexico, USA, Brazil, Abu Dhabi (10)

Both Ferrari drivers also lost one win as a direct result of unreliability (Charles in Bahrain, Seb in Russia) while Max did not.

I used to believe that Ferrari was definitely better than Red Bull in 2019, but having analyzed the season carefully it was much closer than I initially though.



Some of the ones you give to Red Bull are very suspect... Just at a glance Austria (I would definately give to Ferrari) and Silverstone and Germany.


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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 8:03 am 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Some of the ones you give to Red Bull are very suspect... Just at a glance Austria (I would definately give to Ferrari) and Silverstone and Germany.

I wouldn't agree with the order you gave them in; I think Germany should be the definitely, with Austria as a 'maybe' and Silverstone as a 'probably not'.

In Germany my feeling is that Ferrari had a clear car advantage and threw it away through a mixture of qualifying unreliability and race day errors. In Austria I think they probably had an advantage and lost it through strategy. In Silverstone I'm unconvinced; Leclerc's Ferrari was marginally quicker in qualifying (this being during the time of Ferrari's qualifying boost) but my impression is that the Red Bull looked quicker in the race.

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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 8:18 am 
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In Germany, Ferrari was the fastest car in qualifying, but both cars suffered from unreliability so Red Bull was the better car on Saturday. On Sunday, Red Bull was definitely quicker than Ferrari in the wet. Verstappen was about 1 second quicker than Leclerc when both were on equal tyres. Leclerc only became the fastest man on track when Ferrari was the only team to switch to new inters. Red Bull was quicker throughout most of the race (rain). Only at the end of the race when it turned dry did Ferrari become the fastest car on track, and even then it's debatable whether Vettel was even any quicker than Verstappen.

In Austria, Red Bull had the quickest car on race day and Verstappen's slow start made his victory a lot more complicated than it should have been.

In Silverstone, Red Bull looked slightly quicker than Ferrari on race pace to me. Verstappen was all over Leclerc when Charles was ahead. Hell, even Gasly overtook Vettel on track that race.


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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 8:26 am 
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In my race weekend rankings - which try to take into account the full weekend, obviously - Ferrari take a commanding lead due to almost always being better placed to achieve superior track position.

Ferrari are ahead of RBR 14 times here, and RBR are ahead of Ferrari 6 times. I had one tie.

For Germany, Austria and Silverstone, I have Ferrari ahead, ahead and tied respectively.

Clearly, I put a lot of the RBR performance over Ferrari during the season down to Max himself. And he did have a substantially better season than either Ferrari driver, no?


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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 8:36 am 
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Actually I miscounted there it's 13-7 to Ferrari with a tie...

But the bigger thing for me in determining who was stronger, especially given how valuable 1st place is, is how often a team had perhaps the best package out of all teams for the race weekend.

Here, Red Bull only clearly came into their own toward the end of the season. Perhaps they had the good old "car to have" at Mexico and Brazil and perhaps Austria, to give some latitude...

Ferrari, however, arguably had the best package at many more tracks than RBR. Arguments can be made for Bahrain, Canada, Austria, Germany, Belgium, Italy, Singapore, Russia and Japan. Ultimately, when it came to outright best car for the Grand Prix excluding ties, I had Merc with 10, Ferrari with 5 and RBR with 2.


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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 10:42 am 
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KingVoid wrote:
In Germany, Ferrari was the fastest car in qualifying, but both cars suffered from unreliability so Red Bull was the better car on Saturday. On Sunday, Red Bull was definitely quicker than Ferrari in the wet. Verstappen was about 1 second quicker than Leclerc when both were on equal tyres. Leclerc only became the fastest man on track when Ferrari was the only team to switch to new inters. Red Bull was quicker throughout most of the race (rain). Only at the end of the race when it turned dry did Ferrari become the fastest car on track, and even then it's debatable whether Vettel was even any quicker than Verstappen.

In Austria, Red Bull had the quickest car on race day and Verstappen's slow start made his victory a lot more complicated than it should have been.

In Silverstone, Red Bull looked slightly quicker than Ferrari on race pace to me. Verstappen was all over Leclerc when Charles was ahead. Hell, even Gasly overtook Vettel on track that race.


I think Austria and Germany was a lot down to Verstappen making the difference. Remember The second Red Bull was lapped in Austria. and Verstappen's wet weather driving gave him the edge in Germany.


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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 12:09 pm 
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kleefton wrote:
I'm surprised Leclerc is not getting more love. To me his first two years in F1 have been more impressive than Verstappen's. Yeah I know all the rhetoric about Verstappen not having driven a car until he got to F1, but I still maintain Leclerc going to Sauber and immediately demolishing Ericsson, then after that starting the year as the number 2 driver at Ferrari, he simply outperformed Vettel and imo basically kicked him out of the team. That rings a bell wtih me.
If Ferrari manages to build the fastest car I have no doubt he will win the title and he might win a lot more than one. It's crazy that some people are overlooking him. The guy is just really good and he will only get better. If I'm Hamilton that's who I am the most worried about, Redbull with their one driver takes all approach are only going to be hurting themselves in the process imo. We shall see though.

I think you said it yourself, he's really good and he's only going to get better, so you think he's going to be better than the likes of Verstappen, or like most of us I guess he's not quite at that level yet but he's going to get better?

Also let's not over exaggerate the beating of Vettel, it was quite close but impressive given his lack of experience.

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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 12:16 pm 
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KingVoid wrote:
Invade wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
No Russell was a bit of a punt by me, in regards to Verstappen and Leclerc, the Red Bull was the 3rd best car last year.

I think it went back and forth a lot between RBR and Ferrari. After the engine rule clarification the Red Bull was definitely the better car, and it was always better at downforce tracks.


But was the Red Bull the 2nd best car on balance? I don't think it was particularly close. Not that the gap was huge but there's little doubt in my mind that Ferrari had the better car even if it was through tricks. Max put together a heck of a season and only beat out Leclerc by 14 points and the Ferrari drivers left a lot more points on the table.

Ferrari better: Bahrain, China, Baku, Spain, Canada, France, Belgium, Monza, Singapore, Japan, Russia (11)

Red Bull better: Australia, Monaco, Austria, Silverstone, Germany, Hungary, Mexico, USA, Brazil, Abu Dhabi (10)

Both Ferrari drivers also lost one win as a direct result of unreliability (Charles in Bahrain, Seb in Russia) while Max did not.

I used to believe that Ferrari was definitely better than Red Bull in 2019, but having analyzed the season carefully it was much closer than I initially though.

Yeah I would go along with which cars were faster at which tracks but what weights it for me was that the Ferrari more often had a race winning capable car and the Red Bull was more often the 3rd best car.

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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 6:22 pm 
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Germany is an interesting one, it really depends how much you difference you think that Verstappen makes in the rain.

In the wet, Max looked quicker than Bottas (who appeared to be holding him up), significantly quicker than Leclerc on equal tyres (about 1 second per lap), and much quicker than either Vettel or Gasly (by about 2 seconds per lap). Once Max got in the lead of the race, he pulled a gap more rapidly than Hamilton did.

I think that Verstappen is better than either Ferrari drivers in the wet, but I also believe that the Red Bull was probably a better car than the Ferrari in those conditions, so both factors made a difference.


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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 7:31 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
I think Austria and Germany was a lot down to Verstappen making the difference. Remember The second Red Bull was lapped in Austria. and Verstappen's wet weather driving gave him the edge in Germany.

That's what I suspected all along, and it smacks of circular reasoning to me. You're coming at this from very much the assumption that Max is faster, so you're classifying Ferrari as the faster car because Max is faster and then using the fact that he beat a faster car as a demonstration that he's the faster driver.

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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 8:53 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
I think Austria and Germany was a lot down to Verstappen making the difference. Remember The second Red Bull was lapped in Austria. and Verstappen's wet weather driving gave him the edge in Germany.

That's what I suspected all along, and it smacks of circular reasoning to me. You're coming at this from very much the assumption that Max is faster, so you're classifying Ferrari as the faster car because Max is faster and then using the fact that he beat a faster car as a demonstration that he's the faster driver.


It is circular reasoning completely but how can we get away from that? In order to compare the cars race by race like this we are forced to make an assumption about the drivers in those cars. Do we assume they were always equal or do we try to take a best guess based on what we know about each driver and look at the driver in the other car as well?

So yeah it's circular reasoning but I don't really know how we get away from it?

I always find that when doing comparisons of cars like this people always want to compare as if the drivers in each car are equals but drivers can make a big difference. At Red Bull we have a graphic example of that. Two Gasly's in the car and we aren't asking if the Red Bull was as good as the Ferrari but if it was as good as the McLaren! I think you'd agree we would have been given a false impression but I doubt many people would say "Maybe Sainz and Norris were better and making the difference".


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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 8:57 pm 
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There's a particular problem in this instance because the general gap between Max and his teammate was 'UGE.


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PostPosted: Mon May 25, 2020 9:02 pm 
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Invade wrote:
There's a particular problem in this instance because the general gap between Max and his teammate was 'UGE.


TBH given the Verstappen/Ricciardo/Kvyat comparison on pure speed it's actually where you would think. Gasly's problem is he went backwards at the start of a race and never was able to get himself out of the midfield.

But, yes, it means Gasly really can't be used to try and benchmark the Red Bull.


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