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 Post subject: PREDICT the next 5 WDCs
PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 12:06 pm 
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As per title...


Frankly, I only have belief in two teams during the proposed time period even in the face of radical new regulations. I see two men winnings WDCs in that period. Hamilton and Verstappen. Perhaps Russell can bag one if he gets the Mercedes seat in the future.

I have a lot of faith in Red Bull organisationally and am quite convinced the partnership with Honda will continue to flourish.

Mercedes are simply a Juggernaut who at worst will be fighting for Championships and at best might run away with them.

2020: Hamilton (or no champ)
2021: Verstappen
2022: Hamilton (retires)
2023: Verstappen
2024: Verstappen (or Russell)

This is obviously a very long-term projection and a lot can happen.

WCC...

2020: Mercedes
2021: Mercedes
2022: Mercedes
2023: RBR
2024: RBR


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 12:13 pm 
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I think Leclerc will come close once or twice. As a talent, I'm not sure he's a level below Hamilton and Verstappen. He has the speed and talent to help guide Ferrari into being a quite formiddable package, but Verstappen and RBR+Honda are further down the line of becoming a fierce winning machine and Mercedes are firmly established as king.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 1:13 pm 
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2020- Bottas (a reduced season, he will make a quick start. Hamilton usual slow start. Then Hamilton will have a bit of mechical bad luck with so few races he won't be able to recover. 2016 re-run)

2021- Hamilton

2022- Hamilton

2023- Verstappen

2024- Verstappen


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 1:51 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
2020- Bottas (a reduced season, he will make a quick start. Hamilton usual slow start. Then Hamilton will have a bit of mechical bad luck with so few races he won't be able to recover. 2016 re-run)


Bottas is 11/2 or 6/1 with some bookies to win the title. With the shortened season I think that’s worth a bet, as Bottas will never get as a good a chance you’d think.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 3:53 pm 
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JN23 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
2020- Bottas (a reduced season, he will make a quick start. Hamilton usual slow start. Then Hamilton will have a bit of mechical bad luck with so few races he won't be able to recover. 2016 re-run)


Bottas is 11/2 or 6/1 with some bookies to win the title. With the shortened season I think that’s worth a bet, as Bottas will never get as a good a chance you’d think.

Yes this I wrote nearly 3 months ago in the PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Mercedes thread:
Covalent wrote:
I'm the one who voted for Valtteri. It's in part a wish and in part a very serious prediction, and here's the reasoning. First of all it's evident that he's gotten closer and closer by each season. With all else equal (including reliability) the trend says this probably won't be enough, but that's where I get to the second point. Usually Valtteri has been stronger during the first half of the season, and with the Corona flu possibly escalating into a full-blown pandemic, it's probable we will only see a partial season which could mean Hamilton doesn't have enough races to overcome any deficit in the points table.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition 2016: CHAMPION (2 wins, 8 podiums)


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 4:27 pm 
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The only way I see Bottas winning the WDC this year is if it's a very short season and Hamilton gets the short end of the reliability stick. TBH, I think RBR will be close enough that if Hamilton can't do it, Max will, luck being equal. We've lost some of Mercedes' strongest tracks from the calendar already, no?

A lot has to fall into place for Bottas to win. Have his chances improved? Probably. Can we expect Hamilton to keep up the level of the last two years? Is Bottas still improving? Perhaps no to the former and yes to the latter, but I also think that as time goes on the Mercedes management is increasingly in Hamilton's corner. All "luck" being equal, should their level of performance be similar, I fully expect an orchestrated title hunt in the favour of Hamilton at this stage, with #7 on the line.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 4:41 pm 
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Invade wrote:
The only way I see Bottas winning the WDC this year is if it's a very short season and Hamilton gets the short end of the reliability stick. TBH, I think RBR will be close enough that if Hamilton can't do it, Max will, luck being equal. We've lost some of Mercedes' strongest tracks from the calendar already, no?

A lot has to fall into place for Bottas to win. Have his chances improved? Probably. Can we expect Hamilton to keep up the level of the last two years? Is Bottas still improving? Perhaps no to the former and yes to the latter, but I also think that as time goes on the Mercedes management is increasingly in Hamilton's corner. All "luck" being equal, should their level of performance be similar, I fully expect an orchestrated title hunt in the favour of Hamilton at this stage, with #7 on the line.


I agree with all this. Bottas not only has to beat Hamilton - he has to beat Verstappen as well. Verstappen and Red Bull, for example, were tremendously quick at the Red Bull Ring last year. If two races are hosted there, that could easily mean two Red Bull wins. And that would be at the start of the season, when Hamilton 'warms up'.

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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 5:43 pm 
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Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Invade wrote:
The only way I see Bottas winning the WDC this year is if it's a very short season and Hamilton gets the short end of the reliability stick. TBH, I think RBR will be close enough that if Hamilton can't do it, Max will, luck being equal. We've lost some of Mercedes' strongest tracks from the calendar already, no?

A lot has to fall into place for Bottas to win. Have his chances improved? Probably. Can we expect Hamilton to keep up the level of the last two years? Is Bottas still improving? Perhaps no to the former and yes to the latter, but I also think that as time goes on the Mercedes management is increasingly in Hamilton's corner. All "luck" being equal, should their level of performance be similar, I fully expect an orchestrated title hunt in the favour of Hamilton at this stage, with #7 on the line.


I agree with all this. Bottas not only has to beat Hamilton - he has to beat Verstappen as well. Verstappen and Red Bull, for example, were tremendously quick at the Red Bull Ring last year. If two races are hosted there, that could easily mean two Red Bull wins. And that would be at the start of the season, when Hamilton 'warms up'.


Verstappen and Red Bull were quick in Austria, as they were at other tracks at altitude in Mexico and Brazil but it was probably Merc’s worst weekend of the year for car performance due their difficulties with cooling which I think they sorted out after that weekend.

With an improved Red Bull though, they might be the team to beat in Austria. I think they’re quite an unknown package heading into the season.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 5:45 pm 
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Covalent wrote:
JN23 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
2020- Bottas (a reduced season, he will make a quick start. Hamilton usual slow start. Then Hamilton will have a bit of mechical bad luck with so few races he won't be able to recover. 2016 re-run)


Bottas is 11/2 or 6/1 with some bookies to win the title. With the shortened season I think that’s worth a bet, as Bottas will never get as a good a chance you’d think.

Yes this I wrote nearly 3 months ago in the PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Mercedes thread:
Covalent wrote:
I'm the one who voted for Valtteri. It's in part a wish and in part a very serious prediction, and here's the reasoning. First of all it's evident that he's gotten closer and closer by each season. With all else equal (including reliability) the trend says this probably won't be enough, but that's where I get to the second point. Usually Valtteri has been stronger during the first half of the season, and with the Corona flu possibly escalating into a full-blown pandemic, it's probable we will only see a partial season which could mean Hamilton doesn't have enough races to overcome any deficit in the points table.


A good call that far back regarding only a partial season.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 7:22 pm 
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I foresee a season of European double headers...

2x Silverstone
2x Austria
2x France (alternate layouts)
2x AD (I can see money making it happen)
2x Monza

That’s 10 races and then we may head into Asia in the winter once Europe is too cold. That will depend a lot on the virus. Hungary and Spa could be possible too.

If that was the season, it could really devalue the title. If someone like Lewis wins it that wouldn’t really matter but if a one time WDC won it like that they might always be a question mark over it.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 8:23 pm 
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Johnson wrote:
I foresee a season of European double headers...

2x Silverstone
2x Austria
2x France (alternate layouts)
2x AD (I can see money making it happen)
2x Monza

That’s 10 races and then we may head into Asia in the winter once Europe is too cold. That will depend a lot on the virus. Hungary and Spa could be possible too.

If that was the season, it could really devalue the title. If someone like Lewis wins it that wouldn’t really matter but if a one time WDC won it like that they might always be a question mark over it.


Please God no, not two races at Paul Ricard :lol:

At the rate we are going, it may be the case a lot of Asian countries won't want the virus being reintroduced into their environment. I think you could be right in an all European championship. Hopefully we can squeeze the likes of Spain and Germany in as well (Though I don't know if they're already ruled out).

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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 8:51 pm 
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Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
I foresee a season of European double headers...

2x Silverstone
2x Austria
2x France (alternate layouts)
2x AD (I can see money making it happen)
2x Monza

That’s 10 races and then we may head into Asia in the winter once Europe is too cold. That will depend a lot on the virus. Hungary and Spa could be possible too.

If that was the season, it could really devalue the title. If someone like Lewis wins it that wouldn’t really matter but if a one time WDC won it like that they might always be a question mark over it.


Please God no, not two races at Paul Ricard :lol:

At the rate we are going, it may be the case a lot of Asian countries won't want the virus being reintroduced into their environment. I think you could be right in an all European championship. Hopefully we can squeeze the likes of Spain and Germany in as well (Though I don't know if they're already ruled out).


Hockenheim are willing to hold races and seem to flexible about it. There's talk it'll replace Silverstone if the UK quarantine is enforced.


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2020 9:18 pm 
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2020: Verstappen (shorter season, some of Mercs best tracks are off the calendar)

2021: Hamilton

2022: Leclerc

2023: Russell

2024: Verstappen


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:07 am 
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I think Max has the ability in bundles, but not sure about the mentality - however I'm loath to leave him out of the list.
Leclerc is a talent, but don't see his ability being a match for Hamilton, Verstappen, and hopefully Russell
.
2020 - Hamilton
2021 - Hamilton
2022 - Russell / Verstappen
2023 - Russell / Verstappen
2024 - Russell / Verstappen


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PostPosted: Thu May 21, 2020 11:37 am 
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2020 Hamilton
2021 Hamilton
2022 Verstappen
2023 Leclerc
2024 Leclerc


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 11:15 am 
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JN23 wrote:
Covalent wrote:
JN23 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
2020- Bottas (a reduced season, he will make a quick start. Hamilton usual slow start. Then Hamilton will have a bit of mechical bad luck with so few races he won't be able to recover. 2016 re-run)


Bottas is 11/2 or 6/1 with some bookies to win the title. With the shortened season I think that’s worth a bet, as Bottas will never get as a good a chance you’d think.

Yes this I wrote nearly 3 months ago in the PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Mercedes thread:
Covalent wrote:
I'm the one who voted for Valtteri. It's in part a wish and in part a very serious prediction, and here's the reasoning. First of all it's evident that he's gotten closer and closer by each season. With all else equal (including reliability) the trend says this probably won't be enough, but that's where I get to the second point. Usually Valtteri has been stronger during the first half of the season, and with the Corona flu possibly escalating into a full-blown pandemic, it's probable we will only see a partial season which could mean Hamilton doesn't have enough races to overcome any deficit in the points table.


A good call that far back regarding only a partial season.

Cheers, seemed like a no-brainer even back then.

_________________
Räikkönen - Vettel - Bottas
Thank you Nico - You´re the champ!

PF1 Pick 10 Competition 2016: CHAMPION (2 wins, 8 podiums)


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PostPosted: Fri May 22, 2020 2:21 pm 
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This is what I'd like to see.

2020: Hamilton
2021: Hamilton
2022: Verstappen
2023: Leclerc
2024: Russell

Of course I wouldn't be too disappointed if Hamilton won all 5 titles but let's spread the love, I could always write off the latter titles to Hamilton being too old that's if he's still around, with 8 titles, 100+ wins and 100+ poles he may decide to retire?

Then going forward we have the Verstappen/Leclerc/Russell era.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2020 2:19 am 
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pokerman wrote:
This is what I'd like to see.

2020: Hamilton
2021: Hamilton
2022: Verstappen
2023: Leclerc
2024: Russell

Of course I wouldn't be too disappointed if Hamilton won all 5 titles but let's spread the love, I could always write off the latter titles to Hamilton being too old that's if he's still around, with 8 titles, 100+ wins and 100+ poles he may decide to retire?

Then going forward we have the Verstappen/Leclerc/Russell era.


This seems pretty reasonable to me. I am thinking Verstappen may not sneak through for a championship if Ferrari can clean up their act and Charles keeps getting better. I could see Charles and Carlos Jr. taking Team Red to a couple of WCCs and a couple of WDCs for Charles.

Max only beat Charles by 14 points in 2019 and it would have only been a two point margin but for the Vettel/Leclerc wreck in Brazil.

I am not sure that Merc will have the next championship caliber driver in place when Lewis retires.

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PostPosted: Sun May 24, 2020 11:49 am 
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Mort Canard wrote:
pokerman wrote:
This is what I'd like to see.

2020: Hamilton
2021: Hamilton
2022: Verstappen
2023: Leclerc
2024: Russell

Of course I wouldn't be too disappointed if Hamilton won all 5 titles but let's spread the love, I could always write off the latter titles to Hamilton being too old that's if he's still around, with 8 titles, 100+ wins and 100+ poles he may decide to retire?

Then going forward we have the Verstappen/Leclerc/Russell era.


This seems pretty reasonable to me. I am thinking Verstappen may not sneak through for a championship if Ferrari can clean up their act and Charles keeps getting better. I could see Charles and Carlos Jr. taking Team Red to a couple of WCCs and a couple of WDCs for Charles.

Max only beat Charles by 14 points in 2019 and it would have only been a two point margin but for the Vettel/Leclerc wreck in Brazil.

I am not sure that Merc will have the next championship caliber driver in place when Lewis retires.

No Russell was a bit of a punt by me, in regards to Verstappen and Leclerc, the Red Bull was the 3rd best car last year.

_________________
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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