Prema wrote:The US, that at this point got the largest numbers of covid-19 cases, the death rate would be 1.7%. Which is 17 times higher than the official figure 0.1% seasonal flu. But the actual death rate for covid-19 may be far less than 1,7% since, proportionally speaking, there are perhaps far more people with untested/undocumented covid-19 than unconfirmed deaths. However, such is the case with the seasonal flue too. But this comparative ratio of 17 x may be much higher since all these covid-19 deaths that we have the numbers for, are all clinically tested and affirmatively attributed to covid-19 virus while such is not the case with the deaths attributed to the flu.Harpo wrote:Even the death rate is unsure... In France (and I suppose it's the same in some other countries), are counted as dead from the coronavirus only the people who were showing absolutely certain symptoms of contamination and were tested positive before their death. So mainly, if not only, people dying in dedicated services in hospitals. We don't test the dead who were not confirmed as infected by the coronavirus before dying (we don't even test all the living ones that should be tested). Which means that a good number of dead people are not (not yet ?) counted among the coronavirus victims... Old people dying in retirement homes, dying alone at home and so on.tim3003 wrote:Further to this, the death-rate in developed countries is expected to be between 1 and 3%, so the number of cases per country should be between 30 and 100 times the number of deaths. What's reported is often 10 times it..Alienturnedhuman wrote: It's very very very important to remember that the "infected" number is not "how many people are infected in the country" but "how many people have tested positive for the virus"
In most countries it's believed the actual infected number is around 10 to 100 times what the confirmed cases is. Most countries are only testing people who are symptomatic due to a lack of tests. The UK the symptoms have to be sustained, which is why it's death rate is much higher than Germany, who has a very low death rate. Despite having 4 times the number of cases, Germany has a quarter the deaths of the UK. This is because Germany is conducting many many more cases. Germany is probably about 1 week behind the UK, as their numbers for the past few days line with the UK's numbers for a week ago.
I think they should publish the number of hospitalised cases and intensive care unit cases - data which must be available. This would give a good measure of the strain health services are under. I heard that the death rate of those in intensive care is 50%, which begs the (somewhat insensitive) question, is some of the icu resource going on hopeless cases?
According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 7,428 deaths from the flu were confirmed by a lab test for that virus in 2019. If you add in the 3,771 test-confirmed deaths already tallied in 2020, the total number of deaths that can be definitively tied to the flu is 11,199.
The much higher number Trump used comes from the possible range of deaths attributable to flu this season — 23,00 to 59,000 — a number that the CDC estimates in part by including people who die from pneumonia even if they weren’t tested for the flu virus.
https://theintercept.com/2020/03/25/cor ... son-trump/
The death rate is probably not 1.7%.
You get 1.7 by taking deaths (2,513) as a proportion of confirmed cases (143,055). That's inaccurate because even if the next update shows no new cases, some of those existing cases will die.
You need to be comparing deaths to all final outcomes (basically die or recover). According to the John Hopkins stats for the US, that is currently 2,513 deaths, and 4,835 recovered. I'm not even going to write that out as a percentage because the 'recovered' figure must be very, very under reported.
I guess I'm trying to say there is currently no way for the general public to know what the real death rate is.