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2020 predictions
https://forum.planetf1.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=15875
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Author:  JN23 [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:26 pm ]
Post subject:  2020 predictions

Time for a bit of fun so we can stop reading about whether races will go ahead, let's do some predictions for the upcoming season!

(some questions shamelessly stolen from last year's Race Fans 20 questions article)

- Who will be WDC?
- Who will be WCC?
- Who will finish fourth?
- Surprise package?
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most?
- How many non-top three podiums will there be?
- At which race will the WDC be decided?
- Which driver will get the most pole positions?
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season?
- Who will get the most penalty points?
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)?
- Biggest political story of the season?

Author:  mikeyg123 [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

JN23 wrote:
Time for a bit of fun so we can stop reading about whether races will go ahead, let's do some predictions for the upcoming season!

(some questions shamelessly stolen from last year's Race Fans 20 questions article)

- Who will be WDC?
- Who will be WCC?
- Who will finish fourth?
- Surprise package?
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most?
- How many non-top three podiums will there be?
- At which race will the WDC be decided?
- Which driver will get the most pole positions?
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season?
- Who will get the most penalty points?
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)?
- Biggest political story of the season?


Who will be WDC?

Lewis Hamilton

- Who will be WCC?

Mercedes

- Who will finish fourth?

Racing Point

- Surprise package?

Williams will be a bit better than expected. Alpha Tauri may have the 5th fastest car but won't have the drivers to capitalise

- Who will outqualify their teammate the most?

Verstappen

- How many non-top three podiums will there be?

1 for Perez and 1 for Ricciardo

- At which race will the WDC be decided?

Japan

- Which driver will get the most pole positions?

Hamilton

- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season?

All but Spain

- Who will get the most penalty points?

Magnussen

- First driver dropped for a race (if any)?

Grosjean

- Biggest political story of the season?

The ongoing shenanigans as teams try to barter around signing the new Concorde agreement

Author:  pokerman [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

JN23 wrote:
Time for a bit of fun so we can stop reading about whether races will go ahead, let's do some predictions for the upcoming season!

(some questions shamelessly stolen from last year's Race Fans 20 questions article)

- Who will be WDC? Hamilton
- Who will be WCC? Mercedes
- Who will finish fourth? Renault
- Surprise package? Williams
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? Verstappen
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? Three
- At which race will the WDC be decided? Mexico
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Hamilton
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? All of them
- Who will get the most penalty points? Grosjean
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? None
- Biggest political story of the season? Haas pull out of F1

Author:  JN23 [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

pokerman wrote:
- Biggest political story of the season? Haas pull out of F1


I would not at all be surprised if you are right about Haas, especially if they're struggling again.

Author:  JN23 [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

- Who will be WDC? Verstappen, but partly because I'm being stubborn in my prediction that 2019 would be Hamilton's last championship
- Who will be WCC? Mercedes, driver line up is better than Red Bull
- Who will finish fourth? Mclaren, driver line up is better than Racing Point. I'm not sure Renault will quite be there and will look to 2021 pretty quickly
- Surprise package? Williams not being last
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? Verstappen
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? Two - if I had to guess I'd go Sainz and Perez
- At which race will the WDC be decided? Brazil
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Hamilton
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? All of them but Spain will be last to be confirmed after being in doubt for most of the year
- Who will get the most penalty points? Grosjean
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? Vips will replace Kvyat for the last race
- Biggest political story of the season? Ferrari engine/FIA statement-gate

Author:  Jenson's Understeer [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

- Who will be WDC? Hamilton

- Who will be WCC? Mercedes

- Who will finish fourth? I assume this is WCC not WDC, in which case, Racing Point

- Surprise package? I'm going to say Renault, but in a bad way.

- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? Russell

- How many non-top three podiums will there be? 0

- At which race will the WDC be decided? The penultimate race (although this prediction's based on most, if not all of the races taking place)

- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Hamilton

- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? All except Spain, although I guess Coronavirus has to put a question mark on the Chinese grand prix's future.

- Who will get the most penalty points? Ocon

- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? Nobody will be dropped

- Biggest political story of the season? Some kind of horrendous combination of the Concorde agreement negotiations and the fallout from the Ferrari 2019 engine saga.

Author:  j man [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

- Who will be WDC? Hamilton
- Who will be WCC? Mercedes
- Who will finish fourth? Racing Point
- Surprise package? Racing Point (specifically Perez) will be closer to the top 3 than the midfield
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? Verstappen
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? 4
- At which race will the WDC be decided? Mexico
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Hamilton
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? China, Monaco, Austria.
- Who will get the most penalty points? Grosjean
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? Albon
- Biggest political story of the season? Does Ferrari's "private settlement" count?

Author:  TheGiantHogweed [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

For those going for Grosjean for most penalty points, last season, he got 2. There were 7 drivers that got more points than him, including Hamilton and several other very good drivers. Vettel and Ricciardo nearly had 4 times what Grosjean had. He hasn't done much in the way of things to warrant penalty points compared to other drivers, so not sure why so many are voting him. I really do feel I may get judged as constantly defending Grosjean. I don't think he's that good myself but he's been judged as far worse than he actually was last year, probably triggering peoples decisions on him. Despite being in F1 for less time than Grosjean and missing out on over a year of F1 with the penalty points system, Verstappen has in fact managed to collect more than Grosjean over this time.

Author:  mikeyg123 [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
For those going for Grosjean for most penalty points, last season, he got 2. There were 7 drivers that got more points than him, including Hamilton and several other very good drivers. Vettel and Ricciardo nearly had 4 times what Grosjean had. He hasn't done much in the way of things to warrant penalty points compared to other drivers, so not sure why so many are voting him. I really do feel I may get judged as constantly defending Grosjean. I don't think he's that good myself but he's been judged as far worse than he actually was last year, probably triggering peoples decisions on him. Despite being in F1 for less time than Grosjean and missing out on over a year of F1 with the penalty points system, Verstappen has in fact managed to collect more than Grosjean over this time.


Erm, So what you are saying is they both have driven under the penalty point system for the same about of time?

So surely Grosjean being in F1 for longer is irrelevant in this comparison. If anything him being more experienced should count against him.

Author:  JN23 [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

When did the penalty point system start? It was just a few years ago wasn’t it?

Author:  TheGiantHogweed [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

mikeyg123 wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
For those going for Grosjean for most penalty points, last season, he got 2. There were 7 drivers that got more points than him, including Hamilton and several other very good drivers. Vettel and Ricciardo nearly had 4 times what Grosjean had. He hasn't done much in the way of things to warrant penalty points compared to other drivers, so not sure why so many are voting him. I really do feel I may get judged as constantly defending Grosjean. I don't think he's that good myself but he's been judged as far worse than he actually was last year, probably triggering peoples decisions on him. Despite being in F1 for less time than Grosjean and missing out on over a year of F1 with the penalty points system, Verstappen has in fact managed to collect more than Grosjean over this time.


Erm, So what you are saying is they both have driven under the penalty point system for the same about of time?


So surely Grosjean being in F1 for longer is irrelevant in this comparison. If anything him being more experienced should count against him.



No? I'm pointing out that Grosjean has been driving in F1 for longer than Verstappen since the system has been in place and despite that, has picked up less points. It was introduced in 2014. Not sure why I said over a year (as it was just one), but not sure how you think i am implying they have driven under this system the same number of years. The fact is, Verstappen has been getting more than Grosjean recently as well as overall in less time. Verstappen has also got 2 more penalty points in the last 2 seasons put together than during his first two, which also shows he's still doing quite a few things he shouldn't. And I feel he won't ever change in several of the areas that end up getting him them despite being a better driver in general.

https://f1statblog.co.uk/f1-penalty-points/

Both Verstappen and Grosjean were pretty high and both got 7 in 2018, but Verstappen got 4 last year compared to two for Grosjean. I think it is likely that drivers such as Vettel, Verstappen, Kvyat, and Magnussen too will likely all get more than Grosjean. They did last year.

Author:  mikeyg123 [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
For those going for Grosjean for most penalty points, last season, he got 2. There were 7 drivers that got more points than him, including Hamilton and several other very good drivers. Vettel and Ricciardo nearly had 4 times what Grosjean had. He hasn't done much in the way of things to warrant penalty points compared to other drivers, so not sure why so many are voting him. I really do feel I may get judged as constantly defending Grosjean. I don't think he's that good myself but he's been judged as far worse than he actually was last year, probably triggering peoples decisions on him. Despite being in F1 for less time than Grosjean and missing out on over a year of F1 with the penalty points system, Verstappen has in fact managed to collect more than Grosjean over this time.


Erm, So what you are saying is they both have driven under the penalty point system for the same about of time?


So surely Grosjean being in F1 for longer is irrelevant in this comparison. If anything him being more experienced should count against him.



No? I'm pointing out that Grosjean has been driving in F1 for longer than Verstappen since the system has been in place and despite that, has picked up less points. It was introduced in 2014. Not sure why I said over a year (as it was just one), but not sure how you think i am implying they have driven under this system the same number of years. The fact is, Verstappen has been getting more than Grosjean recently as well as overall in less time. Verstappen has also got 2 more penalty points in the last 2 seasons put together than during his first two, which also shows he's still doing quite a few things he shouldn't. And I feel he won't ever change in several of the areas that end up getting him them despite being a better driver in general.

https://f1statblog.co.uk/f1-penalty-points/

Both Verstappen and Grosjean were pretty high and both got 7 in 2018, but Verstappen got 4 last year compared to two for Grosjean. I think it is likely that drivers such as Vettel, Verstappen, Kvyat, and Magnussen too will likely all get more than Grosjean. They did last year.


I'm not sure saying he has accrued less than a notoriously reckless and high profile driver in his first seasons in F1 really supports your argument as much as you think it does.

Author:  TheGiantHogweed [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

mikeyg123 wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
For those going for Grosjean for most penalty points, last season, he got 2. There were 7 drivers that got more points than him, including Hamilton and several other very good drivers. Vettel and Ricciardo nearly had 4 times what Grosjean had. He hasn't done much in the way of things to warrant penalty points compared to other drivers, so not sure why so many are voting him. I really do feel I may get judged as constantly defending Grosjean. I don't think he's that good myself but he's been judged as far worse than he actually was last year, probably triggering peoples decisions on him. Despite being in F1 for less time than Grosjean and missing out on over a year of F1 with the penalty points system, Verstappen has in fact managed to collect more than Grosjean over this time.


Erm, So what you are saying is they both have driven under the penalty point system for the same about of time?


So surely Grosjean being in F1 for longer is irrelevant in this comparison. If anything him being more experienced should count against him.



No? I'm pointing out that Grosjean has been driving in F1 for longer than Verstappen since the system has been in place and despite that, has picked up less points. It was introduced in 2014. Not sure why I said over a year (as it was just one), but not sure how you think i am implying they have driven under this system the same number of years. The fact is, Verstappen has been getting more than Grosjean recently as well as overall in less time. Verstappen has also got 2 more penalty points in the last 2 seasons put together than during his first two, which also shows he's still doing quite a few things he shouldn't. And I feel he won't ever change in several of the areas that end up getting him them despite being a better driver in general.

https://f1statblog.co.uk/f1-penalty-points/

Both Verstappen and Grosjean were pretty high and both got 7 in 2018, but Verstappen got 4 last year compared to two for Grosjean. I think it is likely that drivers such as Vettel, Verstappen, Kvyat, and Magnussen too will likely all get more than Grosjean. They did last year.


I'm not sure saying he has accrued less than a notoriously reckless and high profile driver in his first seasons in F1 really supports your argument as much as you think it does.

Yea maybe Verstappen should be forgiven for his first season given Grosjean didn't have his awful 2012 season included (or his others), but as i later pointed out, in recent years, Verstappen hasn't really been getting a great deal less than his first.

Grosjean in fact never has got the most penalty points in a season since they came out. But he's been tied at the top (twice in fact) but then the most recent time was tied with Verstappen. And with so many other drivers more recently making mistakes with bigger penalties than Grosjean this season, that is the reason I am questioning why it seems many are going for him.

Author:  Exediron [ Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

I think I got these hilariously wrong last year, but let's see if I can do a little better...

- Who will be WDC? Hamilton
- Who will be WCC? Mercedes
- Who will finish fourth? McLaren, although they won't start the year fourth best
- Surprise package? Williams won't be the clear worst car
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? Russell over Latifi
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? Two
- At which race will the WDC be decided? Brazil
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Hamilton
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? Austria & Monaco
- Who will get the most penalty points? Magnussen, although Vettel will deserve the most
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? None
- Biggest political story of the season? Teams using the new Concorde agreement as political leverage against Ferrari

Author:  Randine [ Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Who will be WDC? - Ham
- Who will be WCC? - Merc
- Who will finish fourth? - Ferrari
- Surprise package? - Renault
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? - Probably Max or Russell
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? - Ferrari will not be top 3, so maybe 3-5 of the others (3 in 2019)
- At which race will the WDC be decided? - Australia (lol)
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? - Ham
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season?
- Who will get the most penalty points? - Vettel
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)?
- Biggest political story of the season? - Coronavirus

Author:  Exediron [ Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Randine wrote:
- Biggest political story of the season? - Coronavirus

I considered this one, but wasn't sure it was really a political issue. Still a valid call, since I think it will probably have the largest impact on the season when all is said and done. :thumbup:

Author:  Jezza13 [ Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Who will be WDC? Hamilton
- Who will be WCC? Merc
- Who will finish fourth? McLaren
- Surprise package? Williams
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? Verstappen
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? 0
- At which race will the WDC be decided? USA
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Hamilton
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? Austria, China, Monaco, Spain
- Who will get the most penalty points? Perez
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? None
- Biggest political story of the season? Just give me a sec to grab my tin foil hat here. Right. The revelation that the extent of Ferrari's creative engine tuning was enough for the FIA to have reasonable grounds to have them excluded from the championship but the FIA / LM put to Ferrari a deal they couldn't refuse including demanding a guarantee they allow the FIA / LM to pursue their agenda, including the redistribution of prize money, without Ferrari dragging their veto out of their pocket

Author:  Mort Canard [ Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

JN23 wrote:
Time for a bit of fun so we can stop reading about whether races will go ahead, let's do some predictions for the upcoming season!

(some questions shamelessly stolen from last year's Race Fans 20 questions article)

- Who will be WDC? - Hamilton
- Who will be WCC? - Mercedes
- Who will finish fourth? - Racing Point
- Surprise package? - Williams
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? - Verstappen
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? - Sainz and Perez
- At which race will the WDC be decided? - Mexico
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? - Hamilton
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? - Austria, China, and Monaco
- Who will get the most penalty points? - Magnussen
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? - None
- Biggest political story of the season? - Ferrari engine/FIA statement scandal

Author:  Remmirath [ Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

- Who will be WDC? Lewis Hamilton
- Who will be WCC? Mercedes
- Who will finish fourth? McLaren
- Surprise package? Haas
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? George Russell
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? 2
- At which race will the WDC be decided? Brazil
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Lewis Hamilton
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? Austria, China, and Monaco
- Who will get the most penalty points? Kevin Magnussen
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? None
- Biggest political story of the season? How the FIA have dealt with Ferrari's engine

Author:  Siao7 [ Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Who will be WDC? - Ham
- Who will be WCC? - Merc
- Who will finish fourth? - RP
- Surprise package? - Renault
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? - Verstapen
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? - 3
- At which race will the WDC be decided? - Mathematically in Brazil, otherwise it is a done deal already!
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? - Ham
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? All of them
- Who will get the most penalty points? - Grosjean
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? none
- Biggest political story of the season? - FIA/Ferrari & 2021 teams boycott

Author:  Black_Flag_11 [ Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

- Who will be WDC? Hamilton
- Who will be WCC? Ferrari
- Who will finish fourth? Renault
- Surprise package? Williams
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? Perez
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? 3
- At which race will the WDC be decided? Mexico
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Hamilton
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? All but China
- Who will get the most penalty points? Grosjean
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? None
- Biggest political story of the season? The Italian GP goes ahead, however due to the increased quarantine measures nobody can get into the country, and Toro Rosso are unable to source a working engine. Therefore the only entrant is Ferrari, using last years car and engineers for drivers. They secure a 1-2 finish and go on to win the championship by 42 points.

Author:  Siao7 [ Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Black_Flag_11 wrote:
- Biggest political story of the season? The Italian GP goes ahead, however due to the increased quarantine measures nobody can get into the country, and Toro Rosso are unable to source a working engine. Therefore the only entrant is Ferrari, using last years car and engineers for drivers. They secure a 1-2 finish and go on to win the championship by 42 points.


Great prediction!!!

Author:  Noni [ Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Jezza13 wrote:
Who will be WDC? Hamilton
- Who will be WCC? Merc
- Who will finish fourth? McLaren
- Surprise package? Williams
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? Verstappen
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? 0
- At which race will the WDC be decided? USA
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Hamilton
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? Austria, China, Monaco, Spain
- Who will get the most penalty points? Perez
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? None
- Biggest political story of the season? Just give me a sec to grab my tin foil hat here. Right. The revelation that the extent of Ferrari's creative engine tuning was enough for the FIA to have reasonable grounds to have them excluded from the championship but the FIA / LM put to Ferrari a deal they couldn't refuse including demanding a guarantee they allow the FIA / LM to pursue their agenda, including the redistribution of prize money, without Ferrari dragging their veto out of their pocket


+1

- How many non-top three podiums will there be? 3

Author:  iano [ Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Looking at the races and impact of Covid 19.
Once there is local transmission of Covid-19, so far in most countries cases grow at a multiple of around 2.5x more cases each week. I will assume applying this growth rate to current local cases will calculate the maximum possible cases at a future date for a given country.

Australia - Confirmed, but expect record low crowds
Bahrain - Race without spectators. Only 1 week after Australia so not too much should change.
Vietnam - Only around 3 weeks away. Estimated cases by race day...around 200. Again- do not expect crowds
China - postponed
Holland - 82 cases now. Estimated cases by race day...between 1,000 and 10,000 ..in other words it could be worse than Italy is now. Questionable
Spain 1200 cases now. On this base, by race day over 1 million cases is possible. I assume drastic measures will keep actually figures far lower, but drastic measures will be needed and will impact having a race.
Monaco - surrounded by France, which is in a similar situation to Spain. My prediction: again, no race
.....
The pattern continues. The further into the future, the more difficult the predictions. But I think at this point expecting more than half of all races to take place seems very unlikely.

This will be the biggest political story of the season. I am unsure there will even be a world champion declared.

Author:  mikeyg123 [ Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

iano wrote:
Looking at the races and impact of Covid 19.
Once there is local transmission of Covid-19, so far in most countries cases grow at a multiple of around 2.5x more cases each week. I will assume applying this growth rate to current local cases will calculate the maximum possible cases at a future date for a given country.

Australia - Confirmed, but expect record low crowds
Bahrain - Race without spectators. Only 1 week after Australia so not too much should change.
Vietnam - Only around 3 weeks away. Estimated cases by race day...around 200. Again- do not expect crowds
China - postponed
Holland - 82 cases now. Estimated cases by race day...between 1,000 and 10,000 ..in other words it could be worse than Italy is now. Questionable
Spain 1200 cases now. On this base, by race day over 1 million cases is possible. I assume drastic measures will keep actually figures far lower, but drastic measures will be needed and will impact having a race.
Monaco - surrounded by France, which is in a similar situation to Spain. My prediction: again, no race
.....
The pattern continues. The further into the future, the more difficult the predictions. But I think at this point expecting more than half of all races to take place seems very unlikely.

This will be the biggest political story of the season. I am unsure there will even be a world champion declared.


Lets see what happens. If we end up with all or at least most of Europe in the same boat then things may well open up regardless of the number of actual cases.

Author:  pokerman [ Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

mikeyg123 wrote:
iano wrote:
Looking at the races and impact of Covid 19.
Once there is local transmission of Covid-19, so far in most countries cases grow at a multiple of around 2.5x more cases each week. I will assume applying this growth rate to current local cases will calculate the maximum possible cases at a future date for a given country.

Australia - Confirmed, but expect record low crowds
Bahrain - Race without spectators. Only 1 week after Australia so not too much should change.
Vietnam - Only around 3 weeks away. Estimated cases by race day...around 200. Again- do not expect crowds
China - postponed
Holland - 82 cases now. Estimated cases by race day...between 1,000 and 10,000 ..in other words it could be worse than Italy is now. Questionable
Spain 1200 cases now. On this base, by race day over 1 million cases is possible. I assume drastic measures will keep actually figures far lower, but drastic measures will be needed and will impact having a race.
Monaco - surrounded by France, which is in a similar situation to Spain. My prediction: again, no race
.....
The pattern continues. The further into the future, the more difficult the predictions. But I think at this point expecting more than half of all races to take place seems very unlikely.

This will be the biggest political story of the season. I am unsure there will even be a world champion declared.


Lets see what happens. If we end up with all or at least most of Europe in the same boat then things may well open up regardless of the number of actual cases.

Indeed, on another thought I wonder if anyone has given thought to the drivers themselves getting infected, missing races?

Author:  P-F1 Mod [ Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

JN23 wrote:
Time for a bit of fun so we can stop reading about whether races will go ahead, let's do some predictions for the upcoming season!

(some questions shamelessly stolen from last year's Race Fans 20 questions article)

- Who will be WDC? Hamilton
- Who will be WCC? Mercedes
- Who will finish fourth? McLaren
- Surprise package? AlphaTauri
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? Russell
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? 3
- At which race will the WDC be decided? Japan
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Hamilton
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? All of them
- Who will get the most penalty points? Grosjean
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? None
- Biggest political story of the season? The Pink W10

Author:  Covalent [ Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

- Who will be WDC? No one.
- Who will be WCC? No one.
- Who will finish fourth? No one.
- Surprise package? Racing point.
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? Verstappen.
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? 1
- At which race will the WDC be decided? It won't.
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Bottas
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? All.
- Who will get the most penalty points? Kvyat.
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? None.
- Biggest political story of the season? No champions will be crowned thanks to the Coronavirus preventing too many races to be held with full lineups.

Author:  Adro783 [ Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

- Who will be WDC? -Hamilton
- Who will be WCC? -Mercedes
- Who will finish fourth? -Racing Point
- Surprise package? -Racing Point
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? -Russell
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? -2 (Perez and Ricciardo)
- At which race will the WDC be decided? -Brazil
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? -Hamilton
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? -Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco
- Who will get the most penalty points? -Kyvat
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? -None
- Biggest political story of the season? -Record number of F1 races cancelled in a season due to Coronavirus

Author:  Siao7 [ Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Covalent wrote:
- Who will be WDC? No one.
- Who will be WCC? No one.
- Who will finish fourth? No one.
- Surprise package? Racing point.
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? Verstappen.
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? 1
- At which race will the WDC be decided? It won't.
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Bottas
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? All.
- Who will get the most penalty points? Kvyat.
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? None.
- Biggest political story of the season? No champions will be crowned thanks to the Coronavirus preventing too many races to be held with full lineups.


Super optimistic Cova, I love it!

Author:  Covalent [ Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Siao7 wrote:
Covalent wrote:
- Who will be WDC? No one.
- Who will be WCC? No one.
- Who will finish fourth? No one.
- Surprise package? Racing point.
- Who will outqualify their teammate the most? Verstappen.
- How many non-top three podiums will there be? 1
- At which race will the WDC be decided? It won't.
- Which driver will get the most pole positions? Bottas
- Austria, Brazil, China, Monaco, Spain don't have contracts for 2021. Which of these will be on the calendar for 2022 by the end of the season? All.
- Who will get the most penalty points? Kvyat.
- First driver dropped for a race (if any)? None.
- Biggest political story of the season? No champions will be crowned thanks to the Coronavirus preventing too many races to be held with full lineups.


Super optimistic Cova, I love it!

Cheers, I'm just a glass half full type of guy :lol:

Author:  iano [ Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
iano wrote:
Looking at the races and impact of Covid 19.
Once there is local transmission of Covid-19, so far in most countries cases grow at a multiple of around 2.5x more cases each week. I will assume applying this growth rate to current local cases will calculate the maximum possible cases at a future date for a given country.

Australia - Confirmed, but expect record low crowds
Bahrain - Race without spectators. Only 1 week after Australia so not too much should change.
Vietnam - Only around 3 weeks away. Estimated cases by race day...around 200. Again- do not expect crowds
China - postponed
Holland - 82 cases now. Estimated cases by race day...between 1,000 and 10,000 ..in other words it could be worse than Italy is now. Questionable
Spain 1200 cases now. On this base, by race day over 1 million cases is possible. I assume drastic measures will keep actually figures far lower, but drastic measures will be needed and will impact having a race.
Monaco - surrounded by France, which is in a similar situation to Spain. My prediction: again, no race
.....
The pattern continues. The further into the future, the more difficult the predictions. But I think at this point expecting more than half of all races to take place seems very unlikely.

This will be the biggest political story of the season. I am unsure there will even be a world champion declared.


Lets see what happens. If we end up with all or at least most of Europe in the same boat then things may well open up regardless of the number of actual cases.

Indeed, on another thought I wonder if anyone has given thought to the drivers themselves getting infected, missing races?


No problem there......how hard can it be to turn a race suit into a hazmat suit?
Image

Author:  Exediron [ Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

pokerman wrote:
Indeed, on another thought I wonder if anyone has given thought to the drivers themselves getting infected, missing races?

Considering the heavy demographic skew of the virus so far (seems to be comparatively very mild for those under about 40), the drivers aren't at serious risk. However, if one of them did get infected they would presumably fall afoul of quarantine regulations in several countries, so it's by no means out of the question.

Author:  Exediron [ Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Adro783 wrote:
- Biggest political story of the season? -Record number of F1 races cancelled in a season due to Coronavirus

Is this one already correct? Does anyone know what the record number of cancellations actually is?

Author:  JN23 [ Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Exediron wrote:
Adro783 wrote:
- Biggest political story of the season? -Record number of F1 races cancelled in a season due to Coronavirus

Is this one already correct? Does anyone know what the record number of cancellations actually is?


We're in for one hell of a story if there is anything bigger than coronavirus.

No idea about the record number of cancellations but considering the number of races has gradually risen over time, it's hard to believe there's been more than seven cancellations.

Author:  mikeyg123 [ Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

We had 4 Grand Prix cancelled in 1955. I'd guess that was the leader until this year.

Author:  Herb [ Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

We have only had 2 cancelled so far, Australia and Monaco. All the others are currently 'postponed'.

Obviously, some of the postponed ones will be cancelled by the end of the season.

Author:  Exediron [ Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Herb wrote:
We have only had 2 cancelled so far, Australia and Monaco. All the others are currently 'postponed'.

Obviously, some of the postponed ones will be cancelled by the end of the season.

Fair point. :thumbup:

... which leads to the slightly bleak 'guess how many races will take place in 2020' thread idea? :uhoh:

Author:  wolfticket [ Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Exediron wrote:
Herb wrote:
We have only had 2 cancelled so far, Australia and Monaco. All the others are currently 'postponed'.

Obviously, some of the postponed ones will be cancelled by the end of the season.

Fair point. :thumbup:

... which leads to the slightly bleak 'guess how many races will take place in 2020' thread idea? :uhoh:

I think Zandvoort will probably go. The noises about rescheduling don't sound terribly positive and maybe there is something slightly different about delaying the debut of a track for a year as opposed to cancelling an existing annual event.

Author:  Adro783 [ Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2020 predictions

Exediron wrote:
Adro783 wrote:
- Biggest political story of the season? -Record number of F1 races cancelled in a season due to Coronavirus

Is this one already correct? Does anyone know what the record number of cancellations actually is?

I hope I end up being wrong Exediron, and there is still plenty of time for that to be the case. The F1 powers that be will try their hardest to prevent cancellations but I feel its going to be tough going. It'll be interesting to see how they juggle the race calendar later in the season if they do get going.

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