PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: AlphaTauri
Posted: Thu Jan 30, 2020 12:00 pm
...typing that subject felt pretty odd!
So, the team formerly known as Toro Rosso head into 2020 with the same driver line-up that they finished 2019 with, following their mid-season shuffle that saw Alex Albon given Pierre Gasly's seat at Red Bull and Gasly demoted back down to the junior team. It was a decision that could've seen Gasly go into a tailspin and, at worst, find himself off the grid entirely in 2020. However, the Frenchman responded well to the demotion, taking his maiden podium in Brazil and ultimately earning the PF1 TMW honours over the nine races he partnered Kvyat. The Russian himself scored a podium earlier in the season in the manic German grand prix but was passed over when Red Bull opted to drop Gasly. Their TMW result suggested there wasn't a huge difference in their form and that the Russian could've counted himself a little unlucky. Since then, Albon's form with the senior team has seemed to suggest he has a bright future alongside Max Verstappen, but both Gasly and Kvyat will be driving with the knowledge that Red Bull aren't afraid to promote mid-season if a driver is underperforming. Early form could be very significant and if one is constantly outperforming the other, who knows what might happen?
Additionally, looking at the list of Red Bull junior drivers for 2020, there isn't really a driver who looks like they could be in F1 as soon as 2021. Liam Lawson is the furthest along but his debut season in F3 only generated two podiums, while their best (IMO) prospect, Dennis Hauger, wouldn't be eligible for a Superlicense until March 17th 2021 at the earliest. (Edit: as Pokerman has subsequently pointed out, I've managed to mistakenly think both Vips and Tsunoda had been dropped from the Red Bull junior programme. Both are still a part of it and are racing at a high level than Lawson and Hauger, so are closer to F1, but I would say their results to this point don't suggest they will be ready to graduate to F1 in 2021 so the point still stands!) That takes a little pressure off of Gasly and Kvyat. The real question is whether one of the two can get the upper hand on the other. Can Gasly build on his rebound towards the end of 2019 and really make a claim for a return to the senior team or will Daniil Kvyat continue his own comeback story by seeing off his French teammate in 2020? This feels like it could be one of the closer votes so I'm particularly intrigued to see how it unfolds...
2019 Result
Pierre Gasly over Daniil Kvyat (5-4, 58%)
(There was no pre-season prediction for this one for obvious reasons!)
2020 Prediction Results
Racing Point: Sergio Perez 88% - 13% Lance Stroll
Alfa Romeo: Kimi Raikkonen 86% - 14% Antonio Giovinazzi
Haas: Kevin Magnussen 71% - 29% Romain Grosjean
Williams: George Russell 95% - 5% Nicholas Latifi
Not much faith that 2020 will be a better year for Lance Stroll as 88% of votes go in Checo Perez's favour. Oddly, the results have rounded up so that Stroll received 13% of the total, meaning the two combined for 101%. Maybe a sign that Racing Point are going to exceed expectations this year?!
So, the team formerly known as Toro Rosso head into 2020 with the same driver line-up that they finished 2019 with, following their mid-season shuffle that saw Alex Albon given Pierre Gasly's seat at Red Bull and Gasly demoted back down to the junior team. It was a decision that could've seen Gasly go into a tailspin and, at worst, find himself off the grid entirely in 2020. However, the Frenchman responded well to the demotion, taking his maiden podium in Brazil and ultimately earning the PF1 TMW honours over the nine races he partnered Kvyat. The Russian himself scored a podium earlier in the season in the manic German grand prix but was passed over when Red Bull opted to drop Gasly. Their TMW result suggested there wasn't a huge difference in their form and that the Russian could've counted himself a little unlucky. Since then, Albon's form with the senior team has seemed to suggest he has a bright future alongside Max Verstappen, but both Gasly and Kvyat will be driving with the knowledge that Red Bull aren't afraid to promote mid-season if a driver is underperforming. Early form could be very significant and if one is constantly outperforming the other, who knows what might happen?
Additionally, looking at the list of Red Bull junior drivers for 2020, there isn't really a driver who looks like they could be in F1 as soon as 2021. Liam Lawson is the furthest along but his debut season in F3 only generated two podiums, while their best (IMO) prospect, Dennis Hauger, wouldn't be eligible for a Superlicense until March 17th 2021 at the earliest. (Edit: as Pokerman has subsequently pointed out, I've managed to mistakenly think both Vips and Tsunoda had been dropped from the Red Bull junior programme. Both are still a part of it and are racing at a high level than Lawson and Hauger, so are closer to F1, but I would say their results to this point don't suggest they will be ready to graduate to F1 in 2021 so the point still stands!) That takes a little pressure off of Gasly and Kvyat. The real question is whether one of the two can get the upper hand on the other. Can Gasly build on his rebound towards the end of 2019 and really make a claim for a return to the senior team or will Daniil Kvyat continue his own comeback story by seeing off his French teammate in 2020? This feels like it could be one of the closer votes so I'm particularly intrigued to see how it unfolds...
2019 Result
Pierre Gasly over Daniil Kvyat (5-4, 58%)
(There was no pre-season prediction for this one for obvious reasons!)
2020 Prediction Results
Racing Point: Sergio Perez 88% - 13% Lance Stroll
Alfa Romeo: Kimi Raikkonen 86% - 14% Antonio Giovinazzi
Haas: Kevin Magnussen 71% - 29% Romain Grosjean
Williams: George Russell 95% - 5% Nicholas Latifi
Not much faith that 2020 will be a better year for Lance Stroll as 88% of votes go in Checo Perez's favour. Oddly, the results have rounded up so that Stroll received 13% of the total, meaning the two combined for 101%. Maybe a sign that Racing Point are going to exceed expectations this year?!