PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

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Which driver will win the Haas TMW vote in 2020?

Poll ended at Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:10 pm

Kevin Magnussen
12
71%
Romain Grosjean
5
29%
 
Total votes: 17

Jenson's Understeer
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PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by Jenson's Understeer »

Moving swiftly onto our second TMW prediction thread, we come to the only team whose 2019 rivalled the nightmare that Williams had. Having finished 5th in the 2018 WCC it all went a bit pear shaped for Haas in 2019 as they slipped all the way down to 9th in the standings. Despite this, they opted to keep both drivers for a fourth consecutive season. Assuming they complete the year as teammates, it will mean they (along with Hamilton and Bottas) become the partnership that has raced in the fourth most races together in F1's history. As an aside, should either pairing continue into 2021 then they would become the two drivers who have raced the most as teammates in F1's history, surpassing Schumacher and Barrichello's 104 races together.

What it means is that unlike most of the TMW prediction threads, we actually have two whole season's worth of TMW data to look back on. And so far it has fallen in Kevin Magnussen's favour, with the Dane winning the battle both years. Weirdly, despite recording almost an identical share of the vote in 2019 as he did in 2018, he took three extra TMW vote victories, increasing that number from 12 (in 2018) to 15. His success relative to Grosjean in 2018 didn't seem to have much of an impact on us, the PF1 voters, as we collectively predicted that Romain Grosjean would win the 2019 Haas TMW. It was the only misstep we took when predicting the 2019 TMW votes. With Magnussen now having an overall lead of 27-14 against Grosjean, will that be enough to see more of us support him for 2020 (presumably en-route to him scoring 66% of the vote for the season)? Or will history repeat itself and see us continue to anticipate Grosjean getting the better of him?

As for what happened in the Williams prediction vote, 19 out of 20 voters went for George Russell, giving the young Brit a commanding 95% of the vote against the not-quite-as-young Canadian.

Previous Results
2019: Kevin Magnussen beat Romain Grosjean 15 - 5 (65% of the vote)
2018: Kevin Magnussen beat Romain Grosjean 12 - 9 (64% of the vote)
17% of votes pre-season votes correctly predicted Magnussen would triumph

2020 Prediction Results
Williams: George Russell 95% - 5% Nicholas Latifi
Pick 10 | 1st x3, 2nd x3, 3rd x8
2019: 11th | 2018: 5th | 2017: 6th | 2016: 8th | 2015: 2nd | 2014: 15th | 2013: 17th | 2012: 11th

pokerman
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Re: PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by pokerman »

I went with Grosjean last year, now I change it to KMag, I think there is a pattern of KMag getting stronger relative to Grosjean the longer he's been in the team, however I wouldn't be too surprised if I get it wrong again.
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TheGiantHogweed
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Re: PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

pokerman wrote:I went with Grosjean last year, now I change it to KMag, I think there is a pattern of KMag getting stronger relative to Grosjean the longer he's been in the team, however I wouldn't be too surprised if I get it wrong again.
The thing is that I think qualifying is the only clear area Magnussen has got better than Grosjean. In the second half of 2018 and overall in 2019, Grosjean was quite clearly better during the races if you factor in his bad luck. But because of how up and down Hass are, many or possibly most of the times Grosjean has been better than magnussen has been when they are not fighting for points, so the results don't reflect much at all. Or when Grosjean is in the points like Australia and Brazil, he of course has an issue. 7 retirements as well as issues resulting in dropping back and behind magnussen on at least 2 other occasions really isn't a good reflection. When they have both been on track on race day, Grosjean actually looked quite a bit better than magnussen last year including the races that they both finished. With more statistics from racefans (i know you are not a fan of these, but these ones are a bit more reflective), Grosjean actually spent more laps ahead of Magnussen too when they were both on track this year. I find this especially interesting given Magnussen is often the one starting ahead. If they have a year of even luck, I'd definitely go with Grosjean over Magnussen. Just simply finishing in the 2 races i mention would have got him ahead of magnussen in the standings despite still having more issues and retirements.

I know you are saying you wouldn't be surprised if you get it wrong, but I just feel many are judging Magnussen to have done (or is going to do) better than Grosjean based on a pretty unbalanced season. I think these two both finished less than half the races last year.

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Re: PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by mikeyg123 »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
pokerman wrote:I went with Grosjean last year, now I change it to KMag, I think there is a pattern of KMag getting stronger relative to Grosjean the longer he's been in the team, however I wouldn't be too surprised if I get it wrong again.
The thing is that I think qualifying is the only clear area Magnussen has got better than Grosjean. In the second half of 2018 and overall in 2019, Grosjean was quite clearly better during the races if you factor in his bad luck. But because of how up and down Hass are, many or possibly most of the times Grosjean has been better than magnussen has been when they are not fighting for points, so the results don't reflect much at all. Or when Grosjean is in the points like Australia and Brazil, he of course has an issue. 7 retirements as well as issues resulting in dropping back and behind magnussen on at least 2 other occasions really isn't a good reflection. When they have both been on track on race day, Grosjean actually looked quite a bit better than magnussen last year including the races that they both finished. With more statistics from racefans (i know you are not a fan of these, but these ones are a bit more reflective), Grosjean actually spent more laps ahead of Magnussen too when they were both on track this year. I find this especially interesting given Magnussen is often the one starting ahead. If they have a year of even luck, I'd definitely go with Grosjean over Magnussen. Just simply finishing in the 2 races i mention would have got him ahead of magnussen in the standings despite still having more issues and retirements.

I know you are saying you wouldn't be surprised if you get it wrong, but I just feel many are judging Magnussen to have done (or is going to do) better than Grosjean based on a pretty unbalanced season. I think these two both finished less than half the races last year.
I think it's almost impossible to compare them based on 2019. They were driving different cars half the time. I voted for Grosjean. I think he's the better Haas driver.

JN23
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Re: PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by JN23 »

I’ve gone for Magnussen as I think he’s the more consistent of the two and Grosjean is just a bit past it by this point. Wouldn’t be surprised to see this year be his last in F1.

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Exediron
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Re: PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by Exediron »

I still feel like KMag is, at his core, a subpar F1 driver, and that Grosjean has the potential to be much faster than him. So I've voted for RoGro, but I voted fully expecting him to let me down like he did last year. x(
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Mort Canard
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Re: PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by Mort Canard »

When he doesn't have his head buried in his bum, Romain is the faster of the two. Romain's ability to snatch defeat from any given situation has grown to breathtaking proportions in the last few years. Grosjean ended the season in 18th place in the championship with 8 points, his worst full-season in Formula One. I was genuinely surprised when Haas renewed Grosjean's contract. I will be even more surprised if he is not replaced for the 2021 season.
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Paolo_Lasardi
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Re: PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by Paolo_Lasardi »

Magnussen.

It is funny how he is keeping beating Grosjean but his performances are being talked down.

TheGiantHogweed
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Re: PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:Magnussen.

It is funny how he is keeping beating Grosjean but his performances are being talked down.
Well, in the 11 races they both finished, Grosjean beat him more often than not. And despite magnussen qualifying ahead of him more often, when they were both on track, Grosjean spent more laps ahead.

Magnussen got a very large chunk of his points in the first race. Grosjean had a terrible pit stop which caused him to retire. If magnussen also had to retire there, he would have 12 points by the end of the season. If Grosjean simply didn't have his MGU-K failure in Brazil, that will easily have been enough for him to beat Magnussen in the standings, despite still having 3 more retirements even though i am including Australia as one for Magnussen.

But even with me twisting the results a little in Grosjean's favour, Grosjean is still the one with far worse luck. When you look at the races and not qualifying or the results, I really don't know how much more clear it could be that Grosjean was better last year. Not saying he was amazing in any way, but I don't think Hass will be looking at the position he was in the championship and judging him from that.

magnussen also had bad luck in races such as Singapore where I think he missed out on a points scoring oppertunity, so I know it wasn't just grojean that had unlucky races, but certainly much more so.

I think Grosjean is a much better driver than many think he is, especially in terms of development and giving feedback, a very possible reason why the team kept him. Especially since he's been with this team from the beginning.

Given the car was different for both in many of the races, it is a bit difficult to tell though. But still i think the only more obvious area Magnussen has improved over Grosjean is qualifying. The points show nothing really with such a lack of fair races to compare.

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Re: PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by Jenson's Understeer »

I went with Grosjean last year (and most likely would've done the same in 2018 had I done prediction threads!) but I'm going with Magnussen this year. As much as Grosjean has probably had more misfortune over the last two years, right now I would trust Magnussen to deliver a good result if he had the car to do so more than I would trust Grosjean. I also think Grosjean is again going to be the more under pressure driver to keep his seat (not just at Haas but in F1) and I'm not convinced that outside pressure doesn't have a negative impact on his performances. So Kmag it is.
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toda11blue
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Re: PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by toda11blue »

Went for Grosjean for the coming season. He had a chunk of bad luck last season and I think KMag hit his ceiling last year.

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Re: PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by F1 MERCENARY »

Grosjean is killing me! LOL

The guy CLEARLY has the talent and ability, but I think he might have too many things going on outside of F1 that keep him from focusing 100% on racing and that's why we see so much inconsistency with him. Some weekends he's lost and nowhere and some weekends he's ok but fighting and working to improve and come Sunday he pulls off excellent drives, but those are far too few and far too in between. I think he needs to drop the cooking and extracurricular activities during the season and dedicate himself to racing exclusively to get back to his best form consistently. I realize he's married, but this is the top pinnacle series and only a select few make it here and he should be working to get the absolute most out of it while he can because once your time is over, it's over for good.
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pc27b
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Re: PF1 TMW 2020 Predictions: Haas

Post by pc27b »

i just hope haas has figured out what went wrong with the 19 car, and rectifies the problem.

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