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Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?
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Author:  da4an1qu1 [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

I've been meaning to post this for a while. I've been preempted somewhat with the BBC's latest story linking Hamilton with Ferrari (https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/50617286). It's not a new idea that Hamilton might at some point end up at Ferrari... but here is my thinking with this poll.

As you can see I've put the current Ferrari drivers up as the obvious candidates for next Ferrari WDC. I've put Vettel top based on seniority, but personally, I think Leclerc is more likely out of the two.

But, I also think that neither Vettel or Leclerc can win a WDC, whilst Hamilton is at Mercedes. The only driver in F1 I think can win a WDC with Ferrari whilst Hamilton is at Mercedes is Verstappen. And even then, it'd be a WDC fight for the ages.

So that leaves the question for me of... which of these two, Hamilton or Verstappen will end up at Ferrari first. My gut says Hamilton. You never know though.

Of course though, I am assuming that no other driver is a candidate. The way I see it there are a couple of possible drivers from the 5+ season crowd (Ricciardo and Perez). And Sainz is not out of the question of those not yet past the 5 season mark.

But I see Leclerc fixed at Ferrari, which means they would have to go for only one of Hamilton or Verstappen.

Also, if what I say is right, no Ferrari WDC for 2020.

Author:  Johnson [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Leclerc has to be favourite, if Ferrari get it right in the next 1-3 years he will be in the seat.

Author:  JN23 [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

I've gone for Leclerc purely because Ferrari haven't been that far away in the past three seasons (I know Mercedes were dominant first half of this season) so it isn't a hugely unrealistic proposition that they could build the best car. Leclerc > Vettel over the course of this season and I see no reason for this to change in future seasons.

Author:  Invade [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Leclerc wasn't on the level of Hamilton or Verstappen this year on the whole, but he has already bested Vettel. I expect him to make more big strides in year 3, especially regarding his race pace and management. I expect him to gap Seb now and become the primary force at Ferrari, but will he win a title with them? I'll go ahead and say yes, he'll be next.

Author:  pokerman [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

The only thing I would say is not Vettel, first of all he would need Ferrari to build a dominant car which I can't see for next season, secondly he has a problem with a teammate that is already on his level and I can see improving for next season.

Author:  Rockie [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

pokerman wrote:
The only thing I would say is not Vettel, first of all he would need Ferrari to build a dominant car which I can't see for next season, secondly he has a problem with a teammate that is already on his level and I can see improving for next season.


I suppose the Mercedes is not a dominant car.

Also Vettel is having a nightmare of a season and Leclerc is barely beating him.

Author:  Flash2k11 [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The only thing I would say is not Vettel, first of all he would need Ferrari to build a dominant car which I can't see for next season, secondly he has a problem with a teammate that is already on his level and I can see improving for next season.


I suppose the Mercedes is not a dominant car.

Also Vettel is having a nightmare of a season and Leclerc is barely beating him.


Well, given that recent events have potentially shed a light on the performance of the Ferrari, perhaps we can revise our views about how dominant Mercedes have been this season? If the jump Ferrari made was less than above board, then possibly Mercedes was dominant again.

Author:  Black_Flag_11 [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Logical answer is Leclerc. He's actually there and looks to be there long term, he's clearly got the ability given he's matched up well against Vettel who is a champion himself, and he's young so he has a lot of time on his side.

I dont see them being title contenders next year and I doubt Vettel will be there much longer than next sesson, if at all.

Hamilton and Verstappen are interesting choices but I see Ferrari building around Leclerc once Vettel leaves rather than bringing in another top tier driver. I also think Leclerc potentially has what it takes to compete against either of them in the same equipment so even if Hamilton/Verstappen were alongside him I dont see them as an obvious choice.

Author:  pokerman [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The only thing I would say is not Vettel, first of all he would need Ferrari to build a dominant car which I can't see for next season, secondly he has a problem with a teammate that is already on his level and I can see improving for next season.


I suppose the Mercedes is not a dominant car.

Also Vettel is having a nightmare of a season and Leclerc is barely beating him.

The problem there is he then has to go against Hamilton then no more excuses can be made, or maybe that would just be called another nightmare season like 2016, 2017 and 2018?

Author:  KingVoid [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Leclerc is the logical answer

But F1 is often not logical.

Author:  Paolo_Lasardi [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Well, depends in how long Binotto is leading the team ...

Author:  JN23 [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

KingVoid wrote:
Leclerc is the logical answer

But F1 is often not logical.


Very true, who’d have guessed in 2008 that Ferrari wouldn’t have won another WDC/WCC 11 years later

Author:  Rockie [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

pokerman wrote:
Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The only thing I would say is not Vettel, first of all he would need Ferrari to build a dominant car which I can't see for next season, secondly he has a problem with a teammate that is already on his level and I can see improving for next season.


I suppose the Mercedes is not a dominant car.

Also Vettel is having a nightmare of a season and Leclerc is barely beating him.

The problem there is he then has to go against Hamilton then no more excuses can be made, or maybe that would just be called another nightmare season like 2016, 2017 and 2018?


Lol so in '16 he was in with a chance to win?

In '17 we are just going to discard Malaysia and Japan where reliability took him out of the equation and just focus on Singapore?

And '18 lets not even go on about that.

When Vettel was in a 'rocket ship' like you fondly refer to it Hamilton was nowhere near the title fight.

Author:  Remmirath [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

I'd say the best bet at this point is Leclerc, but there could always be a big shake-up in years to come. I don't see Vettel doing it. He's already had at least one, probably two and maybe even three seasons with the car to challenge and come up short; unless Ferrari builds decidedly the best car while he's still in the seat, I don't think it'll happen.

Author:  pokerman [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 11:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Rockie wrote:
pokerman wrote:
The only thing I would say is not Vettel, first of all he would need Ferrari to build a dominant car which I can't see for next season, secondly he has a problem with a teammate that is already on his level and I can see improving for next season.


I suppose the Mercedes is not a dominant car.

Also Vettel is having a nightmare of a season and Leclerc is barely beating him.

The problem there is he then has to go against Hamilton then no more excuses can be made, or maybe that would just be called another nightmare season like 2016, 2017 and 2018?


Lol so in '16 he was in with a chance to win?

In '17 we are just going to discard Malaysia and Japan where reliability took him out of the equation and just focus on Singapore?

And '18 lets not even go on about that.

When Vettel was in a 'rocket ship' like you fondly refer to it Hamilton was nowhere near the title fight.

Your post is devoid of Vettel's driving errors apart from Singapore, let's totally forget 2018 and only 2019 was a nightmare season for him perhaps because he got beat by his teammate?

Author:  Exediron [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

I'm going to emerge with a bit of a shocker, but I've gone for the last option. I think Ferrari has already taken their last WDC for the foreseeable future. Their window in the hybrid era was 2017-2018; Red Bull is getting stronger, Mercedes isn't getting any weaker, and the salary cap can't possibly help them. I don't honestly know that they'll win another championship while any current driver is active.

I'd be happy enough to be proven wrong, mind you, but I just don't see it happening. There are huge operational issues with Ferrari that haven't been resolved for years upon years.

Author:  Invade [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Wow. That's a bold and bleak call. I don't put it past Ferrari to find seasons in the near future where they have a 2017-2018 situation, but instead of fighting with Vettel, imagine that they have a prime Leclerc?

Author:  Alienturnedhuman [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

This is a very difficult one to call simply because I see it as unlikely Ferrari will be challenging next year. Operationally they are a mess at the moment, their design philosophy has compromised their race day performance, they have internal politics issues between their drivers, huge pressure and expectation and a lot of questions raised about the legality of their engine.

It's likely that 2020 will see them racing with reduced engine performance and a switch in aero design on which they are now on the backfoot. If that's the case then their eggs will quickly go into their 2021 basket, to get a headstart and the question becomes which two drivers will be in the team then.

Unless Vettel cruises to the 2020 title, then next season will be his last there. Even if they can't get Max or Lewis to replace him, then Ricciardo would be a better bet. What better than to have both of the drivers who beat Sebastian as team mates? And if they decide to call time on the two number 1s policy and give Leclerc his own Bottas, then Hulkenberg or Perez would be perfect candidates.

I would give Leclerc a 50/50 chance of beating Max or Lewis to the title, given that the other two would be integrating into the Ferrari structure. I give 2021 or later as the earliest opportunity for Ferrari to seriously contend for the title (maybe a 10% chance in 2020 at best) - but I don't see Leclerc leaving Ferrari. Therefore, in all probable scenarios, Leclerc is a driver with a chance of winning, whereas Vettel / Max / Lewis / Ricciardo are only competing in one of those. That means that Leclerc is most likely to be the next Ferrari WDC, but in each individual window (except against Vettel) he's not more than 50% likely to win.

Author:  Harpo [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

No other WDC before F1, as we know it, collapses...

Author:  Fiki [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Have Hamilton and Verstappen expressed a wish to drive for Ferrari? I can see Hamilton following Senna in wishing to end his career at Ferrari, but I'm unaware of Verstappen wanting to go there. Anyway, I doubt they would be happy to switch to the scuderia while it continues to be a shambles.

My best guess, supposing Ferrari can get their car in order in short order, is Leclerc. His main worry at the moment I think is the policy of attributing blame to both drivers, when one hits the other.

Author:  DOLOMITE [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Tricky. I think this is more down to Ferrari as a team. But if the car is good enough next year I can only see Leclerc getting better. He's already got the speed, so as the experience starts to pay off he's got the intelligence to use it so I think a title would go his way before Vettels.

As for Hamilton going there, I don't know. I just can't see it at this stage when things are so great at Mercedes. It could be the perfect bookend to his career, but it's a gamble I don't know it's worth taking.

Verstappen seems more likely to WANT to go there, but Ferrari are happy with Leclerc and if he's capable of winning the WDC why rock the boat by bringing Verstappen in? Just not their style to have two alpha males is it.

Author:  Siao7 [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

DOLOMITE wrote:
Tricky. I think this is more down to Ferrari as a team. But if the car is good enough next year I can only see Leclerc getting better. He's already got the speed, so as the experience starts to pay off he's got the intelligence to use it so I think a title would go his way before Vettels.

As for Hamilton going there, I don't know. I just can't see it at this stage when things are so great at Mercedes. It could be the perfect bookend to his career, but it's a gamble I don't know it's worth taking.

Verstappen seems more likely to WANT to go there, but Ferrari are happy with Leclerc and if he's capable of winning the WDC why rock the boat by bringing Verstappen in? Just not their style to have two alpha males is it.

Agreed, but I'm thinking that Max will have Charles for breakfast, so not really two alpha males. I am not trying to disrespect Charles nor am I trying to hype Max, but Max is naturally a peg above in my eyes, maybe above all apart from Lewis, while Charles is fast but his racecraft is just not there for me. I don't find him consistent enough, not just yet.

They would also risk a lot of run ins, neither of these two are afraid to get their elbows out, so there's that! If we thought that Charles and Seb were bad, I think this match up will probably be explosive...

Author:  Paolo_Lasardi [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Let's remember that Binotto crowded out Arrivabene before the season because of the latter's insufficient leadership. After having watched the season, I did not get the impression that Binotto is an upgrade on Arrivabene. Quite the opposite, actually ...

Author:  Option or Prime [ Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Agree with that Paolo.
Ferrari don't seem to have found their feet after Marchionne's death, Binnoto would seem to be out of his depth in managing the team, his strength is as an engineer and the team under his leadership have improved the power unit albeit through potentially dubious developments yet to be confirmed illegitimate.
He seems to lack the drive and direction of Wolff and Horner and I just can't see him banging drivers heads together. Even to the extent of not being able to decide who to pit first in Abu Dhabi Grand Prix the result being the double stacking twice!
Ferrari's tactical confusion has repeatedly led to Ferrari dropping points, they will never win until they sort this out.

Author:  ReservoirDog [ Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

I can tell you who WON'T be the next WDC. That's Vettel.

Author:  Robot [ Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

ReservoirDog wrote:
I can tell you who WON'T be the next WDC. That's Vettel.



This x 1000. Ferrari is not going to win next year and Vettel is going to be out of Ferrari after next year. Said that, the next cycle is going to be for RB not Ferrari in my opinion.

Author:  ReservoirDog [ Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who wins Ferrari's next WDC?

Robot wrote:
ReservoirDog wrote:
I can tell you who WON'T be the next WDC. That's Vettel.



This x 1000. Ferrari is not going to win next year and Vettel is going to be out of Ferrari after next year. Said that, the next cycle is going to be for RB not Ferrari in my opinion.


Even if Ferrari win next year, it would be Le Clerck.

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