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Schumacher forever#1 wrote:

Exediron wrote:

pokerman wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:

pokerman wrote:Leclerc > Vettel > Kimi > Alonso > Button > Perez > Hulk > Sainz

Then some cross references like

Verstappen > Ricciardo > Hulk > Sainz

and

Hamilton > Button > Perez > Hulk > Ricciardo > Verstappen

and

Button > Hamilton > Alonso > Button > Perez > Hulk > Sainz

This creates 2 different reference points creating a very similar result in respect to Sainz.

You could do Leclerec > Vettel > Ricciardo > Hulkenberg > Sainz

What happened in 2014 makes no sense to everything I've seen since, it doesn't correlate to anything else.

If you're willing to throw 2014 out you have to put a question mark over any one-year comparison. I personally am not a believer in the Hulk / Sainz link; Sainz was never comfortable in the team and knew he was leaving before the end of the season.

I agree. There's too much season-on-season variance for me to make any conclusions on cross driver comparisons. I would rather trust my intuition built on watching the last 100 races, rather than end results.

Exediron wrote:

pokerman wrote:Well you can't sort of magic Sainz as being any better, the only driver he has beat was Kvyat and that was just a little over a tenth, is Kvyat that close to a top driver?

He destroyed Kvyat. He only out-qualified him by a little over a tenth, but qualifying isn't the be-all and end-all.

That said, my personal belief is that Sainz is roughly equal to Hulk. A tenth and a half behind him on raw pace just doesn't pass the eye test to me.

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:

Exediron wrote:

pokerman wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:

pokerman wrote:Leclerc > Vettel > Kimi > Alonso > Button > Perez > Hulk > Sainz

Then some cross references like

Verstappen > Ricciardo > Hulk > Sainz

and

Hamilton > Button > Perez > Hulk > Ricciardo > Verstappen

and

Button > Hamilton > Alonso > Button > Perez > Hulk > Sainz

This creates 2 different reference points creating a very similar result in respect to Sainz.

You could do Leclerec > Vettel > Ricciardo > Hulkenberg > Sainz

What happened in 2014 makes no sense to everything I've seen since, it doesn't correlate to anything else.

If you're willing to throw 2014 out you have to put a question mark over any one-year comparison. I personally am not a believer in the Hulk / Sainz link; Sainz was never comfortable in the team and knew he was leaving before the end of the season.

I agree. There's too much season-on-season variance for me to make any conclusions on cross driver comparisons. I would rather trust my intuition built on watching the last 100 races, rather than end results.

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Exediron wrote:

pokerman wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote: You could do Leclerec > Vettel > Ricciardo > Hulkenberg > Sainz

What happened in 2014 makes no sense to everything I've seen since, it doesn't correlate to anything else.

If you're willing to throw 2014 out you have to put a question mark over any one-year comparison. I personally am not a believer in the Hulk / Sainz link; Sainz was never comfortable in the team and knew he was leaving before the end of the season.

Well you can't sort of magic Sainz as being any better, the only driver he has beat was Kvyat and that was just a little over a tenth, is Kvyat that close to a top driver?

Kvyat is no slouch. Let's not forget he was promoted to Red Bull for a period.

Exediron wrote:

pokerman wrote:Well you can't sort of magic Sainz as being any better, the only driver he has beat was Kvyat and that was just a little over a tenth, is Kvyat that close to a top driver?

He destroyed Kvyat. He only out-qualified him by a little over a tenth, but qualifying isn't the be-all and end-all.

That said, my personal belief is that Sainz is roughly equal to Hulk. A tenth and a half behind him on raw pace just doesn't pass the eye test to me.

Invade wrote:The more I think about the Sainz move to Ferrari the more I like it for both him and Leclerc (and Ferrari). Sainz has already demonstrated long stretches of quite uncanny race consistency and an excellent ability to manage his race and cash in. I think he could teach Leclerc quite a lot on that front. In return, Sainz can get schooled in the art of speed and learn plenty in return. I believe the Ferrari pairing is strong and also very complementary in this regard. We know that Charles has blistering pace and can win races, and I'm sure Sainz has the ability to win races himself and be a model of consistency for Ferrari in the races without quite having the explosive dynamism of Leclerc, who will be Ferrari's leading driver.

Mort Canard wrote:I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.

TheGiantHogweed wrote:

Mort Canard wrote:I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.

I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.

Pullrod wrote:

TheGiantHogweed wrote:

Mort Canard wrote:I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.

I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.

And how many 1st lap incidents has Verstappen been involved in?

I think many of you are in for a shock in 2021. You have been sleeping all these years.

HUL made the bulk of his points when the car was competitive for good positions, but in the latter part of the season, Sainz Jr. surely performed better but there were no points this time.

One race sticks to my mind, and it is Carlos's first race with Renault at COTA in 2017 (after they replaced Palmer). He jumped in the cockpit and was bossing people left and right.

As long as Carlos has the same possibilities of Charles and has his head up(not like when he was not even sure to find a drive the next year in Renault) he will surprise the F1 world.

Ferrari is the winner here. Less money for more points.

mikeyg123 wrote:

Pullrod wrote:

TheGiantHogweed wrote:

Mort Canard wrote:I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.

I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.

And how many 1st lap incidents has Verstappen been involved in?

I think many of you are in for a shock in 2021. You have been sleeping all these years.

HUL made the bulk of his points when the car was competitive for good positions, but in the latter part of the season, Sainz Jr. surely performed better but there were no points this time.

One race sticks to my mind, and it is Carlos's first race with Renault at COTA in 2017 (after they replaced Palmer). He jumped in the cockpit and was bossing people left and right.

As long as Carlos has the same possibilities of Charles and has his head up(not like when he was not even sure to find a drive the next year in Renault) he will surprise the F1 world.

Ferrari is the winner here. Less money for more points.

Hogweed won't miss a chance to list Verstappen's indiscretions don't worry.

Sainz about equalled Hulk in the second half of the season. I'm not sure he was ever better than him.

I think Sainz will do OK in races but his quali pace might put him in trouble. I'm looking forward to seeing.

TheGiantHogweed wrote:

Mort Canard wrote:I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.

I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.

Invade wrote:The more I think about the Sainz move to Ferrari the more I like it for both him and Leclerc (and Ferrari). Sainz has already demonstrated long stretches of quite uncanny race consistency and an excellent ability to manage his race and cash in. I think he could teach Leclerc quite a lot on that front. In return, Sainz can get schooled in the art of speed and learn plenty in return. I believe the Ferrari pairing is strong and also very complementary in this regard. We know that Charles has blistering pace and can win races, and I'm sure Sainz has the ability to win races himself and be a model of consistency for Ferrari in the races without quite having the explosive dynamism of Leclerc, who will be Ferrari's leading driver.

mikeyg123 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:38 am

Either way next year is make or break for both of them in terms of tier 1 driver aspirations.

Exediron wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:08 am

mikeyg123 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:38 am

Either way next year is make or break for both of them in terms of tier 1 driver aspirations.

Out of curiosity, how close to Leclerc do you think Sainz needs to come to be considered a tier one driver?

JN23 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:43 am

I’d be surprised if Sainz shows up as close to Leclerc, but I think he’ll do ok and is probably pretty solidly tier 2. But as Mikey says, it’s a bit of a guess at the moment. I hope he surprises us as I quite like him.

The thing that frustrates me a bit is some talk of Norris as a possible future star but then don’t rate Sainz. Similar situation to those that rate Perez but don’t rate Ocon. Anyway that’s a different topic and I’m just moaning.

mikeyg123 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:32 am

JN23 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:43 am

I’d be surprised if Sainz shows up as close to Leclerc, but I think he’ll do ok and is probably pretty solidly tier 2. But as Mikey says, it’s a bit of a guess at the moment. I hope he surprises us as I quite like him.

The thing that frustrates me a bit is some talk of Norris as a possible future star but then don’t rate Sainz. Similar situation to those that rate Perez but don’t rate Ocon. Anyway that’s a different topic and I’m just moaning.

Because drivers usually improve through their first few seasons. If Norris matches Sainz in season 1 or 2 he will likely end up the better driver of the two.

With Ocon people have short memories and Ricciardo is massively underrated IMO.

JN23 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:51 am

mikeyg123 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:32 am

JN23 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:43 am

I’d be surprised if Sainz shows up as close to Leclerc, but I think he’ll do ok and is probably pretty solidly tier 2. But as Mikey says, it’s a bit of a guess at the moment. I hope he surprises us as I quite like him.

The thing that frustrates me a bit is some talk of Norris as a possible future star but then don’t rate Sainz. Similar situation to those that rate Perez but don’t rate Ocon. Anyway that’s a different topic and I’m just moaning.

Because drivers usually improve through their first few seasons. If Norris matches Sainz in season 1 or 2 he will likely end up the better driver of the two.

With Ocon people have short memories and Ricciardo is massively underrated IMO.

I guess it’s possible Norris could become tier 1 if he does improve but I can’t imagine his speed will improve a significant amount from this point. Obviously there’s more to improve on than just speed.

Yeah agreed on Ricciardo being underrated, I’ve been guilty of underrating him myself which I’ve realised this year.

mikeyg123 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:13 pm

JN23 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:51 am

mikeyg123 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:32 am

JN23 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:43 am

I’d be surprised if Sainz shows up as close to Leclerc, but I think he’ll do ok and is probably pretty solidly tier 2. But as Mikey says, it’s a bit of a guess at the moment. I hope he surprises us as I quite like him.

The thing that frustrates me a bit is some talk of Norris as a possible future star but then don’t rate Sainz. Similar situation to those that rate Perez but don’t rate Ocon. Anyway that’s a different topic and I’m just moaning.

Because drivers usually improve through their first few seasons. If Norris matches Sainz in season 1 or 2 he will likely end up the better driver of the two.

With Ocon people have short memories and Ricciardo is massively underrated IMO.

I guess it’s possible Norris could become tier 1 if he does improve but I can’t imagine his speed will improve a significant amount from this point. Obviously there’s more to improve on than just speed.

Yeah agreed on Ricciardo being underrated, I’ve been guilty of underrating him myself which I’ve realised this year.

Yes, I think Norris would have needed to put some air between him and Sainz this season if he was going to be a tier 1 driver. He could still end up at Button/Rosberg/Barrichello kind of level though. I would be surprised to see Sainz end up that good.

DOLOMITE wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:10 am

Just wanted to bump this after this weekends race. Sainz to me has always looked like he had potential. But it seems to me that this year he's really come of age. I don't know if it's just experience kicking in, or the assurance over his future that the Ferrari drive brings, but he's driving with a real confidence and assurance and it's great to watch. Something about his body language in the car almost, almost a sense of entitlement - in a good way. As in not "I want P4 and I'll try for it" but "P4 IS mine"



Charles won't have it easy next year...

JN23 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:43 am

I’d be surprised if Sainz shows up as close to Leclerc, but I think he’ll do ok and is probably pretty solidly tier 2. But as Mikey says, it’s a bit of a guess at the moment. I hope he surprises us as I quite like him.

The thing that frustrates me a bit is some talk of Norris as a possible future star but then don’t rate Sainz. Similar situation to those that rate Perez but don’t rate Ocon. Anyway that’s a different topic and I’m just moaning.

Exediron wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:08 am

mikeyg123 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:38 am

Either way next year is make or break for both of them in terms of tier 1 driver aspirations.

Out of curiosity, how close to Leclerc do you think Sainz needs to come to be considered a tier one driver?

Mort Canard wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:23 pm

This year Charles is dominating Sebastian three to one. (98-33 currently) I expect Carlos to be a lot closer to Charles next year. He will need some time to adjust to the new car and to a whole new team. Ferrari strategic decisions next year will also favor Charles as the number 1 driver. As we all know Ferrari definitely will put it's efforts into their favored driver. It may not be the contractual subordination that Michael Schumacher's contracts required but there will be favoritism shown. If Carlos wants the number 1 spot, he will have to earn it.

That said, I don't know that Carlos can or ever will be the superior driver to Charles. I am hoping that Carlos can keep Charles on his toes trying to make sure that he maintains his place in the team.

Currently Leclerc has 98 points and Carlos has 85 points. That is about what I would expect for the ratio of performance for next year.

pokerman wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:53 pm

Exediron wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:08 am

Out of curiosity, how close to Leclerc do you think Sainz needs to come to be considered a tier one driver?

Surely he has to match him, getting beat would suggest otherwise.

pokerman wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:24 pm

Mort Canard wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:23 pm

This year Charles is dominating Sebastian three to one. (98-33 currently) I expect Carlos to be a lot closer to Charles next year. He will need some time to adjust to the new car and to a whole new team. Ferrari strategic decisions next year will also favor Charles as the number 1 driver. As we all know Ferrari definitely will put it's efforts into their favored driver. It may not be the contractual subordination that Michael Schumacher's contracts required but there will be favoritism shown. If Carlos wants the number 1 spot, he will have to earn it.

That said, I don't know that Carlos can or ever will be the superior driver to Charles. I am hoping that Carlos can keep Charles on his toes trying to make sure that he maintains his place in the team.

Currently Leclerc has 98 points and Carlos has 85 points. That is about what I would expect for the ratio of performance for next year.

Sainz clearly has a better car than Leclerc this year, I wouldn't be using that as any kind of metric apart from Leclerc beating Sainz in an inferior car.

Exediron wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:23 pm

pokerman wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:53 pm

Exediron wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:08 am

Out of curiosity, how close to Leclerc do you think Sainz needs to come to be considered a tier one driver?

Surely he has to match him, getting beat would suggest otherwise.

That's sort of the question beneath the question, which is what defines a tier one driver? There's a few possibilities.

Obviously, a tier one driver needs to have class-leading speed. But since they rarely partner each other, how do we determine if someone makes the cut or falls just short? While it's difficult to prove that someone is a tier one driver, it's certainly easier to demonstrate that they are not -- particularly when they come up against a highly rated rival.

One possibility, the strictest definition, is that a tier one driver cannot be outperformed over a season by a teammate and remain tier one. I say 'outperformed' instead of 'beaten', because there are certainly times when a driver has been beaten by a teammate (Hamilton in 2016, for example) without being outperformed.

By this definition, Verstappen, Hamilton, and Leclerc are the only three tier one drivers at present. Alonso will be a fourth when he rejoins next year, since I would consider him and Lewis to have been matched in 2007.

Another possibility, which includes at least one more driver and lowers the bar slightly, is to say that a tier one driver needs to be within a small margin of the class-leading driver in F1. This is a little harder to quantify, but just by eyeballing let's say they have to be close in both qualifying and race pace.

This definition would add RIcciardo, who I think (accounting for circumstances in 2018) was close enough to Verstappen, and has gone on to continue to look like a top driver after leaving Red Bull. At the moment, I don't think you could include Vettel, although he might have had a case last year. Bottas likewise is not demonstrating tier one ability at the moment, particularly in races.

My own personal conclusion is the second. Surely not all tier one drivers are equal, so being very close to one (particularly one who might be at the high end of tier one) would be enough to get into the club. Especially in his first year at the new team, if Sainz is close but still gets beaten I would think that establishes him as a possible tier one driver.

If, however -- which I think is more likely -- Leclerc decisively beats him similar to how Ricciardo is going against Ocon, he's probably just a solid second tier driver.

mikeyg123 wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:37 pm

I think Hamilton, Verstappen, Leclerc and Ricciardo are all tier 1 drivers. I think of those four drivers had the same car over a season they would all win multiple races and any one of them could come out on top. There are times where Vettel has been tier 1 but not now. Alonso may well still be. We will have to see how he performs.

I agree leeway needs to be given for Sainz's first year in the team. If he gets very close to Leclerc I think we can say that he *could* be a tier 1 driver but he will need to follow it up in 2022 by matching him.

Mort Canard wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:07 pm

pokerman wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:24 pm

Mort Canard wrote: ↑

Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:23 pm

This year Charles is dominating Sebastian three to one. (98-33 currently) I expect Carlos to be a lot closer to Charles next year. He will need some time to adjust to the new car and to a whole new team. Ferrari strategic decisions next year will also favor Charles as the number 1 driver. As we all know Ferrari definitely will put it's efforts into their favored driver. It may not be the contractual subordination that Michael Schumacher's contracts required but there will be favoritism shown. If Carlos wants the number 1 spot, he will have to earn it.

That said, I don't know that Carlos can or ever will be the superior driver to Charles. I am hoping that Carlos can keep Charles on his toes trying to make sure that he maintains his place in the team.

Currently Leclerc has 98 points and Carlos has 85 points. That is about what I would expect for the ratio of performance for next year.

Sainz clearly has a better car than Leclerc this year, I wouldn't be using that as any kind of metric apart from Leclerc beating Sainz in an inferior car.

I am not sure that is a given or that the McLaren is THAT much better than the Ferrari even if it is.

We will have to wait till next year to get a true comparison of how Carlos and Charles stack up.

pokerman wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:40 pm

I disagree I believe that Verstappen has already shown himself to be a step above Ricciardo, Ricciardo beats Verstappen only if he has numerous misfortunes similar to what happened to Hamilton in 2016.