The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

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mikeyg123
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:Leclerc > Vettel > Kimi > Alonso > Button > Perez > Hulk > Sainz

Then some cross references like

Verstappen > Ricciardo > Hulk > Sainz

and

Hamilton > Button > Perez > Hulk > Ricciardo > Verstappen

and

Button > Hamilton > Alonso > Button > Perez > Hulk > Sainz

This creates 2 different reference points creating a very similar result in respect to Sainz.
You could do Leclerec > Vettel > Ricciardo > Hulkenberg > Sainz
What happened in 2014 makes no sense to everything I've seen since, it doesn't correlate to anything else.
If you're willing to throw 2014 out you have to put a question mark over any one-year comparison. I personally am not a believer in the Hulk / Sainz link; Sainz was never comfortable in the team and knew he was leaving before the end of the season.
I agree. There's too much season-on-season variance for me to make any conclusions on cross driver comparisons. I would rather trust my intuition built on watching the last 100 races, rather than end results.
If you take out drivers debut seasons and final seasons cross driver comparisons do produce pretty accurate results far more often than not. It's not infallible but it is by far the best predictor we have.

JN23
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by JN23 »

Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:Well you can't sort of magic Sainz as being any better, the only driver he has beat was Kvyat and that was just a little over a tenth, is Kvyat that close to a top driver?
He destroyed Kvyat. He only out-qualified him by a little over a tenth, but qualifying isn't the be-all and end-all.

That said, my personal belief is that Sainz is roughly equal to Hulk. A tenth and a half behind him on raw pace just doesn't pass the eye test to me.
I agree with Exediron about the Sainz/Hulk comparison and that not being Sainz's greatest season for reasons given.

I know the conversation is about pace and qualifying times but I went and checked the points for Sainz/Kvyat's time together. I didn't realise how much of a thrashing it was, 96-9 in the points in favour of Sainz!

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by pokerman »

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:Leclerc > Vettel > Kimi > Alonso > Button > Perez > Hulk > Sainz

Then some cross references like

Verstappen > Ricciardo > Hulk > Sainz

and

Hamilton > Button > Perez > Hulk > Ricciardo > Verstappen

and

Button > Hamilton > Alonso > Button > Perez > Hulk > Sainz

This creates 2 different reference points creating a very similar result in respect to Sainz.
You could do Leclerec > Vettel > Ricciardo > Hulkenberg > Sainz
What happened in 2014 makes no sense to everything I've seen since, it doesn't correlate to anything else.
If you're willing to throw 2014 out you have to put a question mark over any one-year comparison. I personally am not a believer in the Hulk / Sainz link; Sainz was never comfortable in the team and knew he was leaving before the end of the season.
I agree. There's too much season-on-season variance for me to make any conclusions on cross driver comparisons. I would rather trust my intuition built on watching the last 100 races, rather than end results.
That's probably what most people prefer, I prefer a more scientific method.
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pokerman
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by pokerman »

Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote: You could do Leclerec > Vettel > Ricciardo > Hulkenberg > Sainz
What happened in 2014 makes no sense to everything I've seen since, it doesn't correlate to anything else.
If you're willing to throw 2014 out you have to put a question mark over any one-year comparison. I personally am not a believer in the Hulk / Sainz link; Sainz was never comfortable in the team and knew he was leaving before the end of the season.
Well you can't sort of magic Sainz as being any better, the only driver he has beat was Kvyat and that was just a little over a tenth, is Kvyat that close to a top driver?
Kvyat is no slouch. Let's not forget he was promoted to Red Bull for a period.
Kvyat is clearly no better than Gasly and Albon who both were about half a second shy of Verstappen.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:Well you can't sort of magic Sainz as being any better, the only driver he has beat was Kvyat and that was just a little over a tenth, is Kvyat that close to a top driver?
He destroyed Kvyat. He only out-qualified him by a little over a tenth, but qualifying isn't the be-all and end-all.

That said, my personal belief is that Sainz is roughly equal to Hulk. A tenth and a half behind him on raw pace just doesn't pass the eye test to me.
That's about the gap between Hamilton and Bottas, it makes a difference and I'm only discussing qualifying anyway.
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kleefton
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by kleefton »

Invade wrote:The more I think about the Sainz move to Ferrari the more I like it for both him and Leclerc (and Ferrari). Sainz has already demonstrated long stretches of quite uncanny race consistency and an excellent ability to manage his race and cash in. I think he could teach Leclerc quite a lot on that front. In return, Sainz can get schooled in the art of speed and learn plenty in return. I believe the Ferrari pairing is strong and also very complementary in this regard. We know that Charles has blistering pace and can win races, and I'm sure Sainz has the ability to win races himself and be a model of consistency for Ferrari in the races without quite having the explosive dynamism of Leclerc, who will be Ferrari's leading driver.
The way things are at the front though, if Sainz gets outqualified badly by Leclerc then he is most likely going to be starting with quite a few cars between him and his teammate. Leclerc might put it on pole and Sainz is hanging on to beat the second Redbull. His race has already been destroyed right there. We shall see though... he can show me a lot if he is able to finish ahead of Leclerc on Sundays with any consistency. But judging on how Leclerc matched up with Vettel I think Leclerc is going to trash Sainz in qualifying. I will not be surprised if the gap is often around 0.5 sec.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Mort Canard »

I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

Mort Canard wrote:I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.
I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Pullrod »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.
I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.
And how many 1st lap incidents has Verstappen been involved in?

I think many of you are in for a shock in 2021. You have been sleeping all these years. ;)

HUL made the bulk of his points when the car was competitive for good positions, but in the latter part of the season, Sainz Jr. surely performed better but there were no points this time.

One race sticks to my mind, and it is Carlos's first race with Renault at COTA in 2017 (after they replaced Palmer). He jumped in the cockpit and was bossing people left and right.

As long as Carlos has the same possibilities of Charles and has his head up(not like when he was not even sure to find a drive the next year in Renault) he will surprise the F1 world.

Ferrari is the winner here. Less money for more points.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

Pullrod wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.
I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.
And how many 1st lap incidents has Verstappen been involved in?

I think many of you are in for a shock in 2021. You have been sleeping all these years. ;)

HUL made the bulk of his points when the car was competitive for good positions, but in the latter part of the season, Sainz Jr. surely performed better but there were no points this time.

One race sticks to my mind, and it is Carlos's first race with Renault at COTA in 2017 (after they replaced Palmer). He jumped in the cockpit and was bossing people left and right.

As long as Carlos has the same possibilities of Charles and has his head up(not like when he was not even sure to find a drive the next year in Renault) he will surprise the F1 world.

Ferrari is the winner here. Less money for more points.
Hogweed won't miss a chance to list Verstappen's indiscretions don't worry.

Sainz about equalled Hulk in the second half of the season. I'm not sure he was ever better than him.

I think Sainz will do OK in races but his quali pace might put him in trouble. I'm looking forward to seeing.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.
I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.
And how many 1st lap incidents has Verstappen been involved in?

I think many of you are in for a shock in 2021. You have been sleeping all these years. ;)

HUL made the bulk of his points when the car was competitive for good positions, but in the latter part of the season, Sainz Jr. surely performed better but there were no points this time.

One race sticks to my mind, and it is Carlos's first race with Renault at COTA in 2017 (after they replaced Palmer). He jumped in the cockpit and was bossing people left and right.

As long as Carlos has the same possibilities of Charles and has his head up(not like when he was not even sure to find a drive the next year in Renault) he will surprise the F1 world.

Ferrari is the winner here. Less money for more points.
Hogweed won't miss a chance to list Verstappen's indiscretions don't worry.

Sainz about equalled Hulk in the second half of the season. I'm not sure he was ever better than him.

I think Sainz will do OK in races but his quali pace might put him in trouble. I'm looking forward to seeing.
Yea i wasn't referencing him to Verstappen. At the start of 2018, verstappen was probably worse than Sainz has been at any point in his career, but Verstappen's speed always seems to be there, and the majority of the time, he is excellent. Before this year (which is still a little tricky to prove against a rookie and a Mclaren with a new line up and new engine), Sainz hasn't looked at Verstappen's level to me, nor particularly impressive. I think Peres, Bottas and Hulkenberg are all better than Sainz when looking back at the past few years myself. And I agree with mikey that qualifying may be Sainz's weakness. If Leclerc could be better than Vettel this quickly in that area and Sainz was matched by a rookie, i wouldn't surprised if the gap is nearly as big as Verstappen vs gasly or albon.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Alex53 »

I just heard an interview with Carlos Sainz Jr. where he is reminiscing about his test with Red Bull where he managed to get into their young driver development programme.

He expresses his gratitude to María de Villota, who coached him and prepared him for this test. He describes how he'd drive behind her in an F1 car, learning where to change gear, what line to take into corners...

It was quote moving knowing María's demise. She would have been proud to see him in Ferrari!

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Mercedes-Benz »

Good opportunity for Sainz but I think he is going to be destroyed by Charles. It is Charles team now and I think it will be his decision whenever the time comes to move to another team. Though I think he and the team want to win the title together.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Mort Canard »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.
I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.
Well, they say that you are only as good (or bad) as your last race or in this case season. Carlos has been on a learning curve but a lot of things came together for him in 2019. I am of the opinion that when he finds his footing at Ferrari he will continue to improve. I think a lot of folks around here have underestimated him.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Blake »

Invade wrote:The more I think about the Sainz move to Ferrari the more I like it for both him and Leclerc (and Ferrari). Sainz has already demonstrated long stretches of quite uncanny race consistency and an excellent ability to manage his race and cash in. I think he could teach Leclerc quite a lot on that front. In return, Sainz can get schooled in the art of speed and learn plenty in return. I believe the Ferrari pairing is strong and also very complementary in this regard. We know that Charles has blistering pace and can win races, and I'm sure Sainz has the ability to win races himself and be a model of consistency for Ferrari in the races without quite having the explosive dynamism of Leclerc, who will be Ferrari's leading driver.
You may well be right.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by DOLOMITE »

Just wanted to bump this after this weekends race. Sainz to me has always looked like he had potential. But it seems to me that this year he's really come of age. I don't know if it's just experience kicking in, or the assurance over his future that the Ferrari drive brings, but he's driving with a real confidence and assurance and it's great to watch. Something about his body language in the car almost, almost a sense of entitlement - in a good way. As in not "I want P4 and I'll try for it" but "P4 IS mine"



Charles won't have it easy next year...
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

I thought he looked better last year. And I also think that Norris also has to be considered incredibly good too given how inexperienced he is if we think Sainz is. But I'm not sure about how good he is yet and Mclaren may be better than we realise. Sainz's determination is certainly a good thing, but he hasn't been without errors this season. A double DNF in Tuscany and Russia. No points likely would have been the case even if there hadn't been the chaotic restart at Tuscany. He spun when he misjudged the lack of grip at the start, fell to the back and ruined his tyres and strategy.

Although saying that, Leclerc has ended two of his races this year. Anyhow, pace wise, I don't think Sainz will be close to Leclerc. I think it will only be slightly closer that Hamilton vs Bottas

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

I think Norris is closer to Sainz this year than last. Trouble is we can only rate Norris using Sainz so it's hard to know how good he is if we don't know how good Sainz is. People say he has improved but what is that based on... It's also true we only have one season in Sainz career where we can really benchmark him.

Either way next year is make or break for both of them in terms of tier 1 driver aspirations.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by JN23 »

I’d be surprised if Sainz shows up as close to Leclerc, but I think he’ll do ok and is probably pretty solidly tier 2. But as Mikey says, it’s a bit of a guess at the moment. I hope he surprises us as I quite like him.

The thing that frustrates me a bit is some talk of Norris as a possible future star but then don’t rate Sainz. Similar situation to those that rate Perez but don’t rate Ocon. Anyway that’s a different topic and I’m just moaning.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Exediron »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:38 am
Either way next year is make or break for both of them in terms of tier 1 driver aspirations.
Out of curiosity, how close to Leclerc do you think Sainz needs to come to be considered a tier one driver?
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:08 am
mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:38 am
Either way next year is make or break for both of them in terms of tier 1 driver aspirations.
Out of curiosity, how close to Leclerc do you think Sainz needs to come to be considered a tier one driver?
Match him basically. At least get as close as Ricciardo was to Verstappen in 2018 - I.E very close.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

JN23 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:43 am
I’d be surprised if Sainz shows up as close to Leclerc, but I think he’ll do ok and is probably pretty solidly tier 2. But as Mikey says, it’s a bit of a guess at the moment. I hope he surprises us as I quite like him.

The thing that frustrates me a bit is some talk of Norris as a possible future star but then don’t rate Sainz. Similar situation to those that rate Perez but don’t rate Ocon. Anyway that’s a different topic and I’m just moaning.
Because drivers usually improve through their first few seasons. If Norris matches Sainz in season 1 or 2 he will likely end up the better driver of the two.

With Ocon people have short memories and Ricciardo is massively underrated IMO.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by JN23 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:32 am
JN23 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:43 am
I’d be surprised if Sainz shows up as close to Leclerc, but I think he’ll do ok and is probably pretty solidly tier 2. But as Mikey says, it’s a bit of a guess at the moment. I hope he surprises us as I quite like him.

The thing that frustrates me a bit is some talk of Norris as a possible future star but then don’t rate Sainz. Similar situation to those that rate Perez but don’t rate Ocon. Anyway that’s a different topic and I’m just moaning.
Because drivers usually improve through their first few seasons. If Norris matches Sainz in season 1 or 2 he will likely end up the better driver of the two.

With Ocon people have short memories and Ricciardo is massively underrated IMO.
I guess it’s possible Norris could become tier 1 if he does improve but I can’t imagine his speed will improve a significant amount from this point. Obviously there’s more to improve on than just speed.

Yeah agreed on Ricciardo being underrated, I’ve been guilty of underrating him myself which I’ve realised this year.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

JN23 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:51 am
mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:32 am
JN23 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:43 am
I’d be surprised if Sainz shows up as close to Leclerc, but I think he’ll do ok and is probably pretty solidly tier 2. But as Mikey says, it’s a bit of a guess at the moment. I hope he surprises us as I quite like him.

The thing that frustrates me a bit is some talk of Norris as a possible future star but then don’t rate Sainz. Similar situation to those that rate Perez but don’t rate Ocon. Anyway that’s a different topic and I’m just moaning.
Because drivers usually improve through their first few seasons. If Norris matches Sainz in season 1 or 2 he will likely end up the better driver of the two.

With Ocon people have short memories and Ricciardo is massively underrated IMO.
I guess it’s possible Norris could become tier 1 if he does improve but I can’t imagine his speed will improve a significant amount from this point. Obviously there’s more to improve on than just speed.

Yeah agreed on Ricciardo being underrated, I’ve been guilty of underrating him myself which I’ve realised this year.
Yes, I think Norris would have needed to put some air between him and Sainz this season if he was going to be a tier 1 driver. He could still end up at Button/Rosberg/Barrichello kind of level though. I would be surprised to see Sainz end up that good.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by JN23 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:13 pm
JN23 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:51 am
mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:32 am
JN23 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:43 am
I’d be surprised if Sainz shows up as close to Leclerc, but I think he’ll do ok and is probably pretty solidly tier 2. But as Mikey says, it’s a bit of a guess at the moment. I hope he surprises us as I quite like him.

The thing that frustrates me a bit is some talk of Norris as a possible future star but then don’t rate Sainz. Similar situation to those that rate Perez but don’t rate Ocon. Anyway that’s a different topic and I’m just moaning.
Because drivers usually improve through their first few seasons. If Norris matches Sainz in season 1 or 2 he will likely end up the better driver of the two.

With Ocon people have short memories and Ricciardo is massively underrated IMO.
I guess it’s possible Norris could become tier 1 if he does improve but I can’t imagine his speed will improve a significant amount from this point. Obviously there’s more to improve on than just speed.

Yeah agreed on Ricciardo being underrated, I’ve been guilty of underrating him myself which I’ve realised this year.
Yes, I think Norris would have needed to put some air between him and Sainz this season if he was going to be a tier 1 driver. He could still end up at Button/Rosberg/Barrichello kind of level though. I would be surprised to see Sainz end up that good.
Yep that’s fair :thumbup:

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by pokerman »

DOLOMITE wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:10 am
Just wanted to bump this after this weekends race. Sainz to me has always looked like he had potential. But it seems to me that this year he's really come of age. I don't know if it's just experience kicking in, or the assurance over his future that the Ferrari drive brings, but he's driving with a real confidence and assurance and it's great to watch. Something about his body language in the car almost, almost a sense of entitlement - in a good way. As in not "I want P4 and I'll try for it" but "P4 IS mine"



Charles won't have it easy next year...
He reminds me a lot of Perez, not a strong qualifier but dependable in the races, a strong points scorer.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by pokerman »

JN23 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:43 am
I’d be surprised if Sainz shows up as close to Leclerc, but I think he’ll do ok and is probably pretty solidly tier 2. But as Mikey says, it’s a bit of a guess at the moment. I hope he surprises us as I quite like him.

The thing that frustrates me a bit is some talk of Norris as a possible future star but then don’t rate Sainz. Similar situation to those that rate Perez but don’t rate Ocon. Anyway that’s a different topic and I’m just moaning.
Indeed if Norris is a possible elite driver you would think he would be beating Sainz by now, for me if I had to put money on who would finish in front in a race my money would go on Sainz.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:08 am
mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:38 am
Either way next year is make or break for both of them in terms of tier 1 driver aspirations.
Out of curiosity, how close to Leclerc do you think Sainz needs to come to be considered a tier one driver?
Surely he has to match him, getting beat would suggest otherwise.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Mort Canard »

This year Charles is dominating Sebastian three to one. (98-33 currently) I expect Carlos to be a lot closer to Charles next year. He will need some time to adjust to the new car and to a whole new team. Ferrari strategic decisions next year will also favor Charles as the number 1 driver. As we all know Ferrari definitely will put it's efforts into their favored driver. It may not be the contractual subordination that Michael Schumacher's contracts required but there will be favoritism shown. If Carlos wants the number 1 spot, he will have to earn it.

That said, I don't know that Carlos can or ever will be the superior driver to Charles. I am hoping that Carlos can keep Charles on his toes trying to make sure that he maintains his place in the team.

Currently Leclerc has 98 points and Carlos has 85 points. That is about what I would expect for the ratio of performance for next year.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by pokerman »

Mort Canard wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:23 pm
This year Charles is dominating Sebastian three to one. (98-33 currently) I expect Carlos to be a lot closer to Charles next year. He will need some time to adjust to the new car and to a whole new team. Ferrari strategic decisions next year will also favor Charles as the number 1 driver. As we all know Ferrari definitely will put it's efforts into their favored driver. It may not be the contractual subordination that Michael Schumacher's contracts required but there will be favoritism shown. If Carlos wants the number 1 spot, he will have to earn it.

That said, I don't know that Carlos can or ever will be the superior driver to Charles. I am hoping that Carlos can keep Charles on his toes trying to make sure that he maintains his place in the team.

Currently Leclerc has 98 points and Carlos has 85 points. That is about what I would expect for the ratio of performance for next year.
Sainz clearly has a better car than Leclerc this year, I wouldn't be using that as any kind of metric apart from Leclerc beating Sainz in an inferior car.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:53 pm
Exediron wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:08 am
Out of curiosity, how close to Leclerc do you think Sainz needs to come to be considered a tier one driver?
Surely he has to match him, getting beat would suggest otherwise.
That's sort of the question beneath the question, which is what defines a tier one driver? There's a few possibilities.

Obviously, a tier one driver needs to have class-leading speed. But since they rarely partner each other, how do we determine if someone makes the cut or falls just short? While it's difficult to prove that someone is a tier one driver, it's certainly easier to demonstrate that they are not -- particularly when they come up against a highly rated rival.

One possibility, the strictest definition, is that a tier one driver cannot be outperformed over a season by a teammate and remain tier one. I say 'outperformed' instead of 'beaten', because there are certainly times when a driver has been beaten by a teammate (Hamilton in 2016, for example) without being outperformed.

By this definition, Verstappen, Hamilton, and Leclerc are the only three tier one drivers at present. Alonso will be a fourth when he rejoins next year, since I would consider him and Lewis to have been matched in 2007.

Another possibility, which includes at least one more driver and lowers the bar slightly, is to say that a tier one driver needs to be within a small margin of the class-leading driver in F1. This is a little harder to quantify, but just by eyeballing let's say they have to be close in both qualifying and race pace.

This definition would add RIcciardo, who I think (accounting for circumstances in 2018) was close enough to Verstappen, and has gone on to continue to look like a top driver after leaving Red Bull. At the moment, I don't think you could include Vettel, although he might have had a case last year. Bottas likewise is not demonstrating tier one ability at the moment, particularly in races.

My own personal conclusion is the second. Surely not all tier one drivers are equal, so being very close to one (particularly one who might be at the high end of tier one) would be enough to get into the club. Especially in his first year at the new team, if Sainz is close but still gets beaten I would think that establishes him as a possible tier one driver.

If, however -- which I think is more likely -- Leclerc decisively beats him similar to how Ricciardo is going against Ocon, he's probably just a solid second tier driver.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

I think Hamilton, Verstappen, Leclerc and Ricciardo are all tier 1 drivers. I think of those four drivers had the same car over a season they would all win multiple races and any one of them could come out on top. There are times where Vettel has been tier 1 but not now. Alonso may well still be. We will have to see how he performs.

I agree leeway needs to be given for Sainz's first year in the team. If he gets very close to Leclerc I think we can say that he *could* be a tier 1 driver but he will need to follow it up in 2022 by matching him.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Invade »

When I think of tiers, I just go by whatever appears to be a somewhat decisive gap in ability. So, for example, I could agree that HAM, LEC, RIC and VER are tier 1, but I'd find it unsatisfactory, because I think that, right now, HAM and VER show notable, meaningful superiority over even LEC and RIC, as impressive as they are. To me, that indicates two tiers.

(alphabetical order)
Tier 1: Hamilton, Verstappen
Tier 2: Leclerc, Ricciardo

In other words, I don't think of tiers as some sort of static zone or band of general ability, but a circumstantially relative ranking based on recent performance (say 2 years or so for a general impression of form).

In that case, I see Hamilton and Verstappen having put in 2 consecutive stellar seasons, Leclerc showing stunning talent but not yet as consistent and well-rounded and in the phase of coming into his prime rather than being smack bang in it, and Ricciardo being strong but not really in contention for driver of the year for either of the last 2 seasons (I think this has been clearly contested by Hamilton and Verstappen, at least in my eyes and seemingly in the eyes of the general media and probably a majority of fans).

Now, most people probably don't jive with this way of using tiers, and might think that it seems insulting to put Leclerc and Ricciardo into "tier 2". But I don't see the numbers as a "grade". If one does, then perhaps all 4 would be in "tier 1" (as a grade) but have Hamilton and Verstappen at the top of that class.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Invade »

Further, I have an interesting question for you guys.

If that aforementioned group continue their path and Alonso returns and barely misses a beat, we'd have 5 drivers in the most elite F1 echelon, as "tier 1" drivers considered as an ability grade.

When was the last time the grid had 5 active tier-1 drivers performing as such?

Let's see how strict we'll be with giving drivers that honour of making the grade, so to speak...

PS, Carlos Sainz is cool and by mentioning him I'm very much on topic.

Vamos.

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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Mort Canard »

pokerman wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:24 pm
Mort Canard wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:23 pm
This year Charles is dominating Sebastian three to one. (98-33 currently) I expect Carlos to be a lot closer to Charles next year. He will need some time to adjust to the new car and to a whole new team. Ferrari strategic decisions next year will also favor Charles as the number 1 driver. As we all know Ferrari definitely will put it's efforts into their favored driver. It may not be the contractual subordination that Michael Schumacher's contracts required but there will be favoritism shown. If Carlos wants the number 1 spot, he will have to earn it.

That said, I don't know that Carlos can or ever will be the superior driver to Charles. I am hoping that Carlos can keep Charles on his toes trying to make sure that he maintains his place in the team.

Currently Leclerc has 98 points and Carlos has 85 points. That is about what I would expect for the ratio of performance for next year.
Sainz clearly has a better car than Leclerc this year, I wouldn't be using that as any kind of metric apart from Leclerc beating Sainz in an inferior car.
I am not sure that is a given or that the McLaren is THAT much better than the Ferrari even if it is.

We will have to wait till next year to get a true comparison of how Carlos and Charles stack up.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:23 pm
pokerman wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:53 pm
Exediron wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:08 am
Out of curiosity, how close to Leclerc do you think Sainz needs to come to be considered a tier one driver?
Surely he has to match him, getting beat would suggest otherwise.
That's sort of the question beneath the question, which is what defines a tier one driver? There's a few possibilities.

Obviously, a tier one driver needs to have class-leading speed. But since they rarely partner each other, how do we determine if someone makes the cut or falls just short? While it's difficult to prove that someone is a tier one driver, it's certainly easier to demonstrate that they are not -- particularly when they come up against a highly rated rival.

One possibility, the strictest definition, is that a tier one driver cannot be outperformed over a season by a teammate and remain tier one. I say 'outperformed' instead of 'beaten', because there are certainly times when a driver has been beaten by a teammate (Hamilton in 2016, for example) without being outperformed.

By this definition, Verstappen, Hamilton, and Leclerc are the only three tier one drivers at present. Alonso will be a fourth when he rejoins next year, since I would consider him and Lewis to have been matched in 2007.

Another possibility, which includes at least one more driver and lowers the bar slightly, is to say that a tier one driver needs to be within a small margin of the class-leading driver in F1. This is a little harder to quantify, but just by eyeballing let's say they have to be close in both qualifying and race pace.

This definition would add RIcciardo, who I think (accounting for circumstances in 2018) was close enough to Verstappen, and has gone on to continue to look like a top driver after leaving Red Bull. At the moment, I don't think you could include Vettel, although he might have had a case last year. Bottas likewise is not demonstrating tier one ability at the moment, particularly in races.

My own personal conclusion is the second. Surely not all tier one drivers are equal, so being very close to one (particularly one who might be at the high end of tier one) would be enough to get into the club. Especially in his first year at the new team, if Sainz is close but still gets beaten I would think that establishes him as a possible tier one driver.

If, however -- which I think is more likely -- Leclerc decisively beats him similar to how Ricciardo is going against Ocon, he's probably just a solid second tier driver.
I would go with your first definition that puts Hamilton, Verstappen and Leclerc as tier 1 drivers plus Alonso when he returns next year.

Some of us like to have a tier amongst tiers called tier 1.5, these are drivers that are not quite elite but stand out from the midfield and can be champions under the right circumstances, such drivers would include Button and Rosberg and presently I would put Ricciardo in that tier, it tends to be a very small tier.

The reason for this is not to call very good drivers, top 10 drivers as tier 3 drivers, tier 2 seems more appropriate and I would place drivers such as Bottas, Perez and the Hulk in that tier just to name a few.

In respect to Sainz given his history thus far I doubt he gets above tier 2, there is a reason why he was signed by Ferrari and it wasn't to challenge Leclerc like Vettel did in 2019, Sainz is a Bottas like alternative.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by pokerman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 11:37 pm
I think Hamilton, Verstappen, Leclerc and Ricciardo are all tier 1 drivers. I think of those four drivers had the same car over a season they would all win multiple races and any one of them could come out on top. There are times where Vettel has been tier 1 but not now. Alonso may well still be. We will have to see how he performs.

I agree leeway needs to be given for Sainz's first year in the team. If he gets very close to Leclerc I think we can say that he *could* be a tier 1 driver but he will need to follow it up in 2022 by matching him.
I disagree I believe that Verstappen has already shown himself to be a step above Ricciardo, Ricciardo beats Verstappen only if he has numerous misfortunes similar to what happened to Hamilton in 2016.
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by pokerman »

Mort Canard wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:07 pm
pokerman wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:24 pm
Mort Canard wrote:
Mon Nov 30, 2020 1:23 pm
This year Charles is dominating Sebastian three to one. (98-33 currently) I expect Carlos to be a lot closer to Charles next year. He will need some time to adjust to the new car and to a whole new team. Ferrari strategic decisions next year will also favor Charles as the number 1 driver. As we all know Ferrari definitely will put it's efforts into their favored driver. It may not be the contractual subordination that Michael Schumacher's contracts required but there will be favoritism shown. If Carlos wants the number 1 spot, he will have to earn it.

That said, I don't know that Carlos can or ever will be the superior driver to Charles. I am hoping that Carlos can keep Charles on his toes trying to make sure that he maintains his place in the team.

Currently Leclerc has 98 points and Carlos has 85 points. That is about what I would expect for the ratio of performance for next year.
Sainz clearly has a better car than Leclerc this year, I wouldn't be using that as any kind of metric apart from Leclerc beating Sainz in an inferior car.
I am not sure that is a given or that the McLaren is THAT much better than the Ferrari even if it is.

We will have to wait till next year to get a true comparison of how Carlos and Charles stack up.
I don't understand why it's not considered that past performance is a clue to future performance, it seems like a disclaimer whenever you make an investment. :)
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Re: The Official Carlos Sainz Jr. Thread

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:40 pm
I disagree I believe that Verstappen has already shown himself to be a step above Ricciardo, Ricciardo beats Verstappen only if he has numerous misfortunes similar to what happened to Hamilton in 2016.
I'm not sure how indicative the last year in particular was at Red Bull for Ricciardo. I agree with your overall conclusion that Verstappen is the quicker driver, but I wouldn't go so far as to place him in the confidence margin where he beats Ricciardo 100% of the time without bad luck.

Comparisons aren't completely fair when the team is obviously behind one driver more than the other, which I think was the case at Red Bull by 2018.
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