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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2020 8:36 am 
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Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Leclerc > Vettel > Kimi > Alonso > Button > Perez > Hulk > Sainz

Then some cross references like

Verstappen > Ricciardo > Hulk > Sainz

and

Hamilton > Button > Perez > Hulk > Ricciardo > Verstappen

and

Button > Hamilton > Alonso > Button > Perez > Hulk > Sainz

This creates 2 different reference points creating a very similar result in respect to Sainz.

You could do Leclerec > Vettel > Ricciardo > Hulkenberg > Sainz

What happened in 2014 makes no sense to everything I've seen since, it doesn't correlate to anything else.

If you're willing to throw 2014 out you have to put a question mark over any one-year comparison. I personally am not a believer in the Hulk / Sainz link; Sainz was never comfortable in the team and knew he was leaving before the end of the season.


I agree. There's too much season-on-season variance for me to make any conclusions on cross driver comparisons. I would rather trust my intuition built on watching the last 100 races, rather than end results.


If you take out drivers debut seasons and final seasons cross driver comparisons do produce pretty accurate results far more often than not. It's not infallible but it is by far the best predictor we have.


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2020 9:50 am 
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Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Well you can't sort of magic Sainz as being any better, the only driver he has beat was Kvyat and that was just a little over a tenth, is Kvyat that close to a top driver?

He destroyed Kvyat. He only out-qualified him by a little over a tenth, but qualifying isn't the be-all and end-all.

That said, my personal belief is that Sainz is roughly equal to Hulk. A tenth and a half behind him on raw pace just doesn't pass the eye test to me.


I agree with Exediron about the Sainz/Hulk comparison and that not being Sainz's greatest season for reasons given.

I know the conversation is about pace and qualifying times but I went and checked the points for Sainz/Kvyat's time together. I didn't realise how much of a thrashing it was, 96-9 in the points in favour of Sainz!


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2020 10:26 pm 
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Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Leclerc > Vettel > Kimi > Alonso > Button > Perez > Hulk > Sainz

Then some cross references like

Verstappen > Ricciardo > Hulk > Sainz

and

Hamilton > Button > Perez > Hulk > Ricciardo > Verstappen

and

Button > Hamilton > Alonso > Button > Perez > Hulk > Sainz

This creates 2 different reference points creating a very similar result in respect to Sainz.

You could do Leclerec > Vettel > Ricciardo > Hulkenberg > Sainz

What happened in 2014 makes no sense to everything I've seen since, it doesn't correlate to anything else.

If you're willing to throw 2014 out you have to put a question mark over any one-year comparison. I personally am not a believer in the Hulk / Sainz link; Sainz was never comfortable in the team and knew he was leaving before the end of the season.


I agree. There's too much season-on-season variance for me to make any conclusions on cross driver comparisons. I would rather trust my intuition built on watching the last 100 races, rather than end results.

That's probably what most people prefer, I prefer a more scientific method.

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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2020 10:29 pm 
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Schumacher forever#1 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
You could do Leclerec > Vettel > Ricciardo > Hulkenberg > Sainz

What happened in 2014 makes no sense to everything I've seen since, it doesn't correlate to anything else.

If you're willing to throw 2014 out you have to put a question mark over any one-year comparison. I personally am not a believer in the Hulk / Sainz link; Sainz was never comfortable in the team and knew he was leaving before the end of the season.

Well you can't sort of magic Sainz as being any better, the only driver he has beat was Kvyat and that was just a little over a tenth, is Kvyat that close to a top driver?


Kvyat is no slouch. Let's not forget he was promoted to Red Bull for a period.

Kvyat is clearly no better than Gasly and Albon who both were about half a second shy of Verstappen.

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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2020 10:31 pm 
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Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Well you can't sort of magic Sainz as being any better, the only driver he has beat was Kvyat and that was just a little over a tenth, is Kvyat that close to a top driver?

He destroyed Kvyat. He only out-qualified him by a little over a tenth, but qualifying isn't the be-all and end-all.

That said, my personal belief is that Sainz is roughly equal to Hulk. A tenth and a half behind him on raw pace just doesn't pass the eye test to me.

That's about the gap between Hamilton and Bottas, it makes a difference and I'm only discussing qualifying anyway.

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2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2020 11:15 pm 
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Invade wrote:
The more I think about the Sainz move to Ferrari the more I like it for both him and Leclerc (and Ferrari). Sainz has already demonstrated long stretches of quite uncanny race consistency and an excellent ability to manage his race and cash in. I think he could teach Leclerc quite a lot on that front. In return, Sainz can get schooled in the art of speed and learn plenty in return. I believe the Ferrari pairing is strong and also very complementary in this regard. We know that Charles has blistering pace and can win races, and I'm sure Sainz has the ability to win races himself and be a model of consistency for Ferrari in the races without quite having the explosive dynamism of Leclerc, who will be Ferrari's leading driver.


The way things are at the front though, if Sainz gets outqualified badly by Leclerc then he is most likely going to be starting with quite a few cars between him and his teammate. Leclerc might put it on pole and Sainz is hanging on to beat the second Redbull. His race has already been destroyed right there. We shall see though... he can show me a lot if he is able to finish ahead of Leclerc on Sundays with any consistency. But judging on how Leclerc matched up with Vettel I think Leclerc is going to trash Sainz in qualifying. I will not be surprised if the gap is often around 0.5 sec.


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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2020 12:08 am 
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I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.

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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2020 9:41 am 
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Mort Canard wrote:
I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.


I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.


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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2020 11:36 am 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:
I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.


I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.


And how many 1st lap incidents has Verstappen been involved in?

I think many of you are in for a shock in 2021. You have been sleeping all these years. ;)

HUL made the bulk of his points when the car was competitive for good positions, but in the latter part of the season, Sainz Jr. surely performed better but there were no points this time.

One race sticks to my mind, and it is Carlos's first race with Renault at COTA in 2017 (after they replaced Palmer). He jumped in the cockpit and was bossing people left and right.

As long as Carlos has the same possibilities of Charles and has his head up(not like when he was not even sure to find a drive the next year in Renault) he will surprise the F1 world.

Ferrari is the winner here. Less money for more points.


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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2020 11:52 am 
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Pullrod wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:
I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.


I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.


And how many 1st lap incidents has Verstappen been involved in?

I think many of you are in for a shock in 2021. You have been sleeping all these years. ;)

HUL made the bulk of his points when the car was competitive for good positions, but in the latter part of the season, Sainz Jr. surely performed better but there were no points this time.

One race sticks to my mind, and it is Carlos's first race with Renault at COTA in 2017 (after they replaced Palmer). He jumped in the cockpit and was bossing people left and right.

As long as Carlos has the same possibilities of Charles and has his head up(not like when he was not even sure to find a drive the next year in Renault) he will surprise the F1 world.

Ferrari is the winner here. Less money for more points.


Hogweed won't miss a chance to list Verstappen's indiscretions don't worry.

Sainz about equalled Hulk in the second half of the season. I'm not sure he was ever better than him.

I think Sainz will do OK in races but his quali pace might put him in trouble. I'm looking forward to seeing.


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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2020 1:30 pm 
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mikeyg123 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:
TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:
I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.


I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.


And how many 1st lap incidents has Verstappen been involved in?

I think many of you are in for a shock in 2021. You have been sleeping all these years. ;)

HUL made the bulk of his points when the car was competitive for good positions, but in the latter part of the season, Sainz Jr. surely performed better but there were no points this time.

One race sticks to my mind, and it is Carlos's first race with Renault at COTA in 2017 (after they replaced Palmer). He jumped in the cockpit and was bossing people left and right.

As long as Carlos has the same possibilities of Charles and has his head up(not like when he was not even sure to find a drive the next year in Renault) he will surprise the F1 world.

Ferrari is the winner here. Less money for more points.


Hogweed won't miss a chance to list Verstappen's indiscretions don't worry.

Sainz about equalled Hulk in the second half of the season. I'm not sure he was ever better than him.

I think Sainz will do OK in races but his quali pace might put him in trouble. I'm looking forward to seeing.

Yea i wasn't referencing him to Verstappen. At the start of 2018, verstappen was probably worse than Sainz has been at any point in his career, but Verstappen's speed always seems to be there, and the majority of the time, he is excellent. Before this year (which is still a little tricky to prove against a rookie and a Mclaren with a new line up and new engine), Sainz hasn't looked at Verstappen's level to me, nor particularly impressive. I think Peres, Bottas and Hulkenberg are all better than Sainz when looking back at the past few years myself. And I agree with mikey that qualifying may be Sainz's weakness. If Leclerc could be better than Vettel this quickly in that area and Sainz was matched by a rookie, i wouldn't surprised if the gap is nearly as big as Verstappen vs gasly or albon.


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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2020 2:37 pm 
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I just heard an interview with Carlos Sainz Jr. where he is reminiscing about his test with Red Bull where he managed to get into their young driver development programme.

He expresses his gratitude to María de Villota, who coached him and prepared him for this test. He describes how he'd drive behind her in an F1 car, learning where to change gear, what line to take into corners...

It was quote moving knowing María's demise. She would have been proud to see him in Ferrari!


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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2020 4:51 pm 
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Good opportunity for Sainz but I think he is going to be destroyed by Charles. It is Charles team now and I think it will be his decision whenever the time comes to move to another team. Though I think he and the team want to win the title together.

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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2020 6:28 pm 
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TheGiantHogweed wrote:
Mort Canard wrote:
I think the hiring of Sainz will do more to upset the dynamic at the front of the grid than anything since the retirement of Nico Rosberg or the promotion of Max Verstappen to RBR. Initially he will probably be slower than Charles is or Seb was in qualifying. I am guessing that his racecraft could be better ON AVERAGE than Vettel's has been for the last few years. I don't think there will be the sense of entitlement that Seb had settled into. Each weekend for Carlos will be a challenge to prove that he really does deserve to be there. I don't see Carlos defeating himself the way Vettel has too many times over the last few years.


I think last year has been only year where Sainz has appeared to have good racecraft. But then I think at least a good half of this season, McLaren have been somewhat ahead of the rest, and a similar distance behind the top 3 teams which I think has made Sainz's results look a bit better than they are. If we base his racecraft on previous seasons, then 2018 i don't think he was great and even not having a full season with toro rosso in 2017, he had rather a lot of poor judgements while racing other drivers. Stroll in Bahrain and Grosjean in Canada. Both of which he retired and took out another driver as well as getting penalty points and a grid drop for the next race. So I think I would disagree that his racecraft has been better than Vettel, even over the past few years averaged out. Until 2019, I think his spacial awareness hasn't been particularly great.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rl8WawFJTgI

I would possibly even say this is comparable to what Grosjean did to hamilton in spa 2012. Not just one bit of misjudgement, but twice.

Not against him for 2019 at all, but going back just a year or two, Sainz wasn't the same driver on average.


Well, they say that you are only as good (or bad) as your last race or in this case season. Carlos has been on a learning curve but a lot of things came together for him in 2019. I am of the opinion that when he finds his footing at Ferrari he will continue to improve. I think a lot of folks around here have underestimated him.

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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2020 5:51 am 
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Invade wrote:
The more I think about the Sainz move to Ferrari the more I like it for both him and Leclerc (and Ferrari). Sainz has already demonstrated long stretches of quite uncanny race consistency and an excellent ability to manage his race and cash in. I think he could teach Leclerc quite a lot on that front. In return, Sainz can get schooled in the art of speed and learn plenty in return. I believe the Ferrari pairing is strong and also very complementary in this regard. We know that Charles has blistering pace and can win races, and I'm sure Sainz has the ability to win races himself and be a model of consistency for Ferrari in the races without quite having the explosive dynamism of Leclerc, who will be Ferrari's leading driver.


You may well be right.

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