Does anyone think Vettel is in danger of losing his drive at Ferrari ahead of next year?

I personally think he is not, but he has made mistake after mistake since Baku 2018. He even made a few in 2017. Leclerc also is now out qualifying and out racing him so it doesn't paint a pretty picture for Seb.

There is no obvious replacement for Vettel if Ferrari wanted to go down that route but just interested to hear from anyone who thinks he could be in danger of being replaced?

Vettel is in no danger of losing his drive unless someone obviously better from outside Ferrari becomes available. This forum won't agree on exactly how many drivers fit that criteria if any but I think it's fair to say ATM that only the following drivers can even be considered part of that argument...

-Hamilton
-Verstappen
-Ricciardo

IF Vettel calls it a day (or is let go) then I don't see why they don't bring Kimi back for one season until one of their academy drivers is ready for 2021.

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#KeepFightingMichael

Given that Leclerc has caused his retirement twice, and still is 13 points ahead in the championship, it does show that Vettel must have been pretty terrible to be behind him. I don't think Leclerc has had a very solid season either. Germany wasn't that long ago and that was a big mistake. I think that Vettel will continue and if he focusses on his performance rather than trying to beat his team mate, he might, well, beat his team mate. He needs another break i think. But next year, I wouldn't say he is done. I think he is just having a bad year or two. If he gets back to being solid, I think he will often be able to get the better of leclerc and it will be a very solid team. I think he still may have a chance to beat him this season, but is seeming less likely now.

Leclerc has actually made more mistakes this season so far. The last two races have raised a shield against the memory of those I suppose (although today's mistakes should be fresh in the memory despite his win, even he remembers those as he discussed them) Seb was not as lucky in his mistakes or with the Stewards, but some of that that is out of a driver's hands.

Nonetheless, Seb cannot just lose his drive, Ferrari would have to make a very large payoff to replace him. In addition, Ferrari would not bring in another young driver, and experienced drivers that are at Vettel's level would mean another humongous payoff to get them and then a huge salary to boot. So realistically, it can't happen unless Vettel just leaves.

No, because it would be expensive to buy him out and get an expensive replacement. Low downforce cars just don't suit him so he might be better next year if Ferrari add more downforce especially to the rear, notice he's always spinning off from the rears giving out. 2021 is his crunch year, if he doesn't start earning his superstar salary in 2020 he will be replaced even if it's only by a junior. Of course there's always Alonso lurking in the background and it's 50/50 at the moment he gets the 2021 seat.

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Red Bull: "Now we can fight !" https://twitter.com/redbullracing/statu ... 1737202688

Leclerc is already to quick and likely has a lot of improvement still left in him. Mistakes from him are not a problem at this stage.

I think the due date has passed on that. I'd rather see Ferrari buying DanRic out from Renault, although it'd be more realistic for Ferrari to settle to Hulk.

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“I'm happy, but there's nothing to jump around about.”

Seb will quietly settle into the rear-gunner Raikkonen role. He already has in the last two races and I expect it to continue into next season. He's still a greater threat to win races than Raikkonen ever was. The sooner he resigns himself to this role, the sooner his consistency will come back.

Bring back Alonso.

I think Vettel will see out his contract but then he will be done at Ferrari. I have two reasons for thinking this:

1. Vettel has the second highest salary on the grid and you don't pay that kind of money to someone to be a #2 driver. Ferrari will be unable to justify keeping Vettel at the same pay rate and he would have to be willing to take a pay cut like Kimi did in order to keep his seat for 2021.

2. Vettel will be unwilling to remain at a team as the second driver. He has too much pride for that and his aspirations are to be champion. I think he couldn't wait to see the back of Daniel and Red Bull after 2014 and he will be just as hasty to depart Ferrari after next year.

I don't see Sebastian regaining the upper-hand on Charles and, if you think back to the early races of the season, the points could be much worse for Seb right now if not for the preferential treatment he got early on. Honestly, I struggle to imagine a scenario in which Vettel's time at the front in F1 is not over after next season. I think he will be out at Ferrari, Red Bull have Max and he won't be going there and Mercedes have Lewis so he won't find purchase there either. Perhaps a Renault drive to replace a departing Ricciardo (if Daniel gets that Ferrari seat) is the best he can hope for.

Indeed, I wouldn't have given Vettel another big 3-year contract in the first place at least not with options, he's done nothing at Ferrari to deserve such a reward. It was obvious to me Leclerc would put some manners on him and said so at the time. Ferrari have screwed up their driver selections as well as their cars since Alonso sillily left on his McLaren fantasy. It was obvious to most that Kimi had lost his youthful consistently high speed a long time ago but they persisted with him, now they are persisting with Vettel who really needs a Newey car to shine.

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Red Bull: "Now we can fight !" https://twitter.com/redbullracing/statu ... 1737202688

What he needs is the best car and a teammate who isn't better than he is.

Maybe but I credit him more than that, he needs a planted rear end but with the extra horsepower these days that may not be possible. I think he can be special when the car really suits him but sadly those days seem to have gone.

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Red Bull: "Now we can fight !" https://twitter.com/redbullracing/statu ... 1737202688

There is still lot of races left and I am sure he can beat Charles. He is obviously there for 2020 but after that I think he should go back to RBR. That car will suit him and there is less pressure and good atmosphere than Ferrari.

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Sir Stirling Moss "Quite frankly, Kimi Raikkonen is the fastest driver in the world"

Would Red Bull actually want him back though. Actually he has more chance at Mercedes, he is German after all and their downforce is pretty solid . Mercedes or a junior team who throw the most money at him.

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Red Bull: "Now we can fight !" https://twitter.com/redbullracing/statu ... 1737202688

This. Absolutely this.

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#KeepFightingMichael

I think his chances at Mercedes are slim to none. A - He won't want to play #2 to Hamilton and B - Mercedes would be FAR more interested in Verstappen than Vettel. IF Merc cannot secure Max, they will likely give George a try. I don't see Vettel at Mercedes under any circumstance to be honest.

Alonso is done in F1 guys. It's time to move on.

I think this could be similar to McLaren 2007.

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Should I grow a beard?

As much as I'd love to see it, I'm sane enough to know it'll never happen. One can dream...

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#KeepFightingMichael

I dont see Ferrari replacing him but I think he should try to leave and get a drive elsewhere at this point. It's been too long since we have seen him drive at the top level now, his head isn't in the game properly anymore for whatever reason.

A change of scenery is worth a shot for him because on current form he can't compete at the top.

Only if Vettel and Ferrari fall out with each other, so that they mutually agree to a contract termination. First signs are on the wall, but still it is more probable that he stays for 2020.

Alonso is not done just laying dormant like a vampire waiting for a competitive car to fall into his lap . Alonso is the only modern driver who I would favour winning WDCs in his 40s like Fangio.

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Red Bull: "Now we can fight !" https://twitter.com/redbullracing/statu ... 1737202688

Ferrari won't get rid of Vettel but the issue is more will Seb be happy to be number 2, it didn't work at Red Bull so he moved on. The issue is where would he go?
He wouldn't be happy in any team outside the top 3. To my mind he settles for No 2 or retires.

The only team I can see him fitting at with the current driver market is McLaren. I cant see a move back to Red Bull, I think the second seat alongside Verstappen is guaranteed to be a Red Bull junior driver.

What is Vettel's motivation though ? If it's money he will carry on where ever he gets the most money. You are all assuming he's in it for the wins and glory. I actually think he's a no thrills guy who just loves to race, win or not.

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Red Bull: "Now we can fight !" https://twitter.com/redbullracing/statu ... 1737202688

Not quite on topic but to me it's fairly clear that now Leclerc has been the better of the two Ferrari drivers this season.

Can't believe what has happened to that guy. He is an absolute shell of his former self and is only embarrassing himself out there week in and week out. Terrible to see.
Does he want to keep getting embarrassed for another year? Sadly I think his competitive spirit will see him do one more year at Ferrari and it will likely be as a supporting role to Leclerc. Mclaren or Renault might be likely destinations for 2021 and on.

How about a Norris-Vettel swap at the end of 2020?

I think his time in Ferrari is coming to an end. But who would Ferrari replace him with? DanRic has a get out clause if a bigger team comes knocking. I think he’s the one that makes most sense if Ferrari decides to pull the trigger.

So where does Seb go?
Renault? He is the last Renault powered World Champion
Red Bull? I get the feeling Seb responds to hugs, and I feel Red Bull would have shown him the love more than Ferrari. He could go back to the environment that saw him thrive. Plus their driver well is drying up.
Alfa? Keeps him in the Ferrari family, and takes him back to the team that gave him his debut.
Out the door? Perhaps...

Personally, I think Ferrari will keep him around until at least the new regs.

Ridiculous, I know you don't like rejoining the track unsafely penalties but it's not unlucky that he spins, takes a driver out rejoining and then gets a penalty for it - that's all I'm his hands.

Also you would expect a driver in his 2nd season and 1st with Ferrari to make some mistakes and crash out a bit but you expect consistency at least from an experienced driver. At the moment, vettel is not reliable, and not fast, and leclerc has now 2 wins, unlucky in some regards not to have 3 or 4 and is ahead in points too

Yep.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

They don't have one.

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PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place
2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

The only way I can see Vettel not spending 2020 at Team Red is if he decides to cash in his chips and goes home. Seb has started developing the "thousand yard stare" and IMHO that means that he is not very happy in his current situation. If he can be happy grabbing a win when he can and supporting Charles more than Charles spends supporting him then he will stay through the end of his contract.

I will predict more meltdowns before the end of the year for Seb as I don't think he is capable of clearing the "Red Mist" from his head whilst wearing the helmet.

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Mission WinLater

Only Seb himself can leave as Ferrari will not pay him out. With another tens of millions to be earned for another year, I'm sure he'll stay on, despite the losses

Is it possible that Seb hasn't been that great since 2013? I mean he lost to Dan fair and square in 2014 and only had Kimi as a barometer since then. Yes he won some races over 2015 to 2018 but made some poor errors in 2017 and 2018 that cost him chances at the title in each of those years.

Maybe he never was that great as before that he only needed to beat an old Webber?

I don't think Ferrari would seek to rid themselves of Vettel, but I do feel Vettel is just about done with F1. His current season is reminiscent of Häkkinen's swan song.

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Räikkönen - Vettel - Bottas
Thank you Nico - You´re the champ!

PF1 Pick 10 Competition 2016: CHAMPION (2 wins, 8 podiums)

And Damon Hill's swansong. He just collapsed in 1999, even though he was fairly decent in 1998.

I would rate Hill, Hakkinen and Vettel fairly closely actually, and their careers kind of came undone in the same messy, and sudden ways.

In 2015 he was outstanding, DOTY for me. In the first half of 2017 he was great too, second half he was decent but not as good as he had been in the first half.

So since 2013 I'd say he has had 1 outstanding season, 1 good season and 4 awful seasons. He has always had an issue with form consistency, even in his Red Bull days, but it only seems to have got worse over time.

He just doesn't look like his head is in the game anymore to me and he has no safety margin now, at least in 2016/2018 he could still beat Kimi even when he was on poor form. I dont see him turning this around for another 15/17 type season now personally but I'd like to be wrong.