How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

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FrogInARaceCar
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by FrogInARaceCar »

Good idea with the thread, this will be interesting!

For all the naysaying, I do think there's some nonzero value to the comparisons. More data certainly helps - the Kimi/Alonso/Massa triangle had 2.5 seasons of Kimi/Massa and 3 of Alonso/Massa. I'm more comfortable with qualitative statements like "Kimi and Massa were about equal at Ferrari, and Alonso was a lot better than Massa, so we expect Alonso beat Kimi".

KingVoid
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by KingVoid »

pokerman wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:05 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:35 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:58 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:46 pm
1. Verstappen
2. Leclerc
3. Hamilton
4. Ricciardo
5. Russell

On qualifying pace, in my opinion.
The numbers would suggest more like:-
1. Leclerc
2. Verstappen
Can you list every datapoint from the Max-Dan-Seb-Charles cross comparison?
I'm surprised you don't know yourself, you've been so meticulous yourself thus far in being able to determine that Verstappen is faster than Hamilton over one lap, anyway I have this:-

2017
Max > Ricciardo 0.15s (10-6)
2018
Max > Ricciardo 0.18s (10-3)
Overall average = 0.16s

2014
Ricciardo > Vettel 0.17s

therefore:-
Max > Vettel 0.33s

2020
Leclerc > Vettel 0.38s

therefore:-
Leclerc > Max 0.05s
Verstappen in 2017 and 2018 was still younger than Leclerc was in 2019, so there is absolutely no reason to exclude 2019 with regards to Leclerc vs Vettel.

I do think that Leclerc has improved since 2019, but I also think that Vettel has gone backwards.

I also believe that Verstappen has improved since 2017. Although 2017 was his third year in the sport, it’s easy to forget that he was still a teenager for the majority of it.

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Exediron
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Exediron »

KingVoid wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:49 pm
Although 2017 was his third year in the sport, it’s easy to forget that he was still a teenager for the majority of it.
I'm not sure that matters. Experience is far more important than age. Until you start to lose ability due to aging, age is really good for one thing only -- to get started younger and accrue experience. Max himself is proof that a driver is capable of competitive speed while a teenager, and he's not the only one.

If you look at Max's improvement in terms of speed, there was a sizable step from 2015 to 2016, another sizable step from 2016 to 2017, and then a very small step from 2017 to 2018. It's hard to tell after that, since he's been changing teammate every season, but it's reasonable to assume any further gains in outright pace have been small. He has improved steadily in the intangibles, but that's typical for a driver in that stage of his career.

Improving dramatically over the first 2-3 years of their career and then tapering out to a very slow improvement is quite typical of a driver's progression in F1. There's nothing to suggest Max's trajectory was particularly unusual due to his age. Leclerc has so far showed the same pattern, after all.
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Badgeronimous
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Badgeronimous »

Experience and age are two different things.

Max already has the experience but does he have the maturity that age brings - it is no co-incidence that in most sports the modern day peak years are usually 28-34 - except in sports where athleticism is dominant (for example I'd say a sprinter peaks 24-28).

But so many variables - whoever ends up in the right seat in the post Hamilton era will do their legacy the world of good - we simply do not know exactly who that will be as of yet!!

pokerman
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:49 pm
pokerman wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:05 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:35 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 6:58 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 5:46 pm
1. Verstappen
2. Leclerc
3. Hamilton
4. Ricciardo
5. Russell

On qualifying pace, in my opinion.
The numbers would suggest more like:-
1. Leclerc
2. Verstappen
Can you list every datapoint from the Max-Dan-Seb-Charles cross comparison?
I'm surprised you don't know yourself, you've been so meticulous yourself thus far in being able to determine that Verstappen is faster than Hamilton over one lap, anyway I have this:-

2017
Max > Ricciardo 0.15s (10-6)
2018
Max > Ricciardo 0.18s (10-3)
Overall average = 0.16s

2014
Ricciardo > Vettel 0.17s

therefore:-
Max > Vettel 0.33s

2020
Leclerc > Vettel 0.38s

therefore:-
Leclerc > Max 0.05s
Verstappen in 2017 and 2018 was still younger than Leclerc was in 2019, so there is absolutely no reason to exclude 2019 with regards to Leclerc vs Vettel.

I do think that Leclerc has improved since 2019, but I also think that Vettel has gone backwards.

I also believe that Verstappen has improved since 2017. Although 2017 was his third year in the sport, it’s easy to forget that he was still a teenager for the majority of it.
Leclerc was clearly inexperienced in respect to F1, if you come in at an older age you can't be inexperienced?

I clearly allowed Max's inexperience to be taken into account when you devised your numbers to show that Max was quicker over one lap than Hamilton.

With Max and Leclerc I have no dog in this fight however I suspect you favour Max then perhaps looking to have favourable caveats?

At then end of the day at this early stage it's not even defining, another chapter is to be written next year.
Lewis Hamilton #44

World Drivers Titles: 7 (1st)
Grand Prix Wins: 99 (1st)
Pole Positions: 101 (1st)
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2014: Champion

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