How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Badgeronimous »

I don't think Verstappen is any quicker in raw pace than what he was 3-4yrs ago - but he has grown into a far more complete package.

However that's normal for the top guys. They seem to come into the sport and once settled quickly find their speed which doesn't really grow much from there - and whilst the speed slowly fades a couple of tenths with age, the overall attribute package grows.

I don't think Hamilton is as outright fast as he was 10yrs ago (although still has it in him to pull out a special lap) but his overall attributes package is pretty complete, which it wasn't 10yrs ago.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

schumilegend wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:41 pm
Yes Rosberg is an amazing qualifier like Trulli but they both aren't a Schumacher/Verstappen in prime
I wouldn't disagree with that.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by KingVoid »

KingVoid wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:14 am
Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.170s
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg by 0.120s
Hulkenberg > Perez by 0.040s
Perez = Button
Hamilton > Button by 0.250s

I end up with Verstappen > Hamilton by 0.090s
There's a poster on another forum who has attempted to discredit this comparison through the usual clichés. This poster also has an account here, but for whatever reason refuses to respond directly to my posts.

1. "Button and Hamilton competed on both Bridgestones and Pirellis"

The qualifying gap between Hamilton and Button, whether you look at their time on Bridgestone or Pirelli, barely changes at all. The difference in qualifying gap between 2010, 2011 and 2012 was only a few hundreds (with 2011 being the smallest and 2012 the biggest).

2. "Verstappen competed against Ricciardo in balanced Red Bull cars."

There's nothing to suggest that Verstappen would lose any performance in unstable cars. Red Bull was very unstable in the first half of 2019. They could not get the chassis working the way they wanted, because the regulation changes hurt the cars with more rake. Verstappen trashed another talented driver in Gasly by an enormous margin

3. "Ricciardo compared against Hulk in an edgy and unstable Renault car."

Yes, and Ricciardo actually struggled to adapt to the Renault at the beginning. Hulkenberg was quicker in Australia and Bahrain. But once Ricciardo got used to the Renault handling, Hulkenberg could not live with him anymore. If anything, this is only a further argument in favour of Verstappen.

4. "Perez competed against Button on egg-shelled Pirelli tyres in the first half of 2013"

Those tyres did not do much to change the pecking order in qualifying. On Saturday, the drivers were still going flat out. Once again, said poster cannot comprehend the fact that we are comparing qualifying pace and not race pace.
Anyway, what I find interesting is how Perez clearly had an upper hand on Button in the second half of 2013, when a new harder compound of tyres were introduced. This is again, only a further argument in favour of Verstappen.

5. "Formula 1 changes too much over time so cross comparisons are flawed"

From my experience, if you exclude rookie seasons and seasons where drivers are clearly past it, cross comparisons tend to be reliable way of comparing drivers speed. I could accurately predict the Bottas-Hamilton gap through Massa and Alonso. Likewise I could accurately predict the Alonso-Kimi gap through Massa.

6. "Qualifying averages are also a flawed way of comparing speed."

Here the poster misses the fact that I use medians when comparing qualifying speed, not averages. Likewise, there is almost never any significant difference between median and average, unless you have extreme outliers (which are usually excluded by people who do use averages, like Poker).

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Invade »

KingVoid wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:28 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:14 am
Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.170s
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg by 0.120s
Hulkenberg > Perez by 0.040s
Perez = Button
Hamilton > Button by 0.250s

I end up with Verstappen > Hamilton by 0.090s
There's a poster on another forum who has attempted to discredit this comparison through the usual clichés. This poster also has an account here, but for whatever reason refuses to respond directly to my posts.

1. "Button and Hamilton competed on both Bridgestones and Pirellis"

The qualifying gap between Hamilton and Button, whether you look at their time on Bridgestone or Pirelli, barely changes at all. The difference in qualifying gap between 2010, 2011 and 2012 was only a few hundreds (with 2011 being the smallest and 2012 the biggest).

2. "Verstappen competed against Ricciardo in balanced Red Bull cars."

There's nothing to suggest that Verstappen would lose any performance in unstable cars. Red Bull was very unstable in the first half of 2019. They could not get the chassis working the way they wanted, because the regulation changes hurt the cars with more rake. Verstappen trashed another talented driver in Gasly by an enormous margin

3. "Ricciardo compared against Hulk in an edgy and unstable Renault car."

Yes, and Ricciardo actually struggled to adapt to the Renault at the beginning. Hulkenberg was quicker in Australia and Bahrain. But once Ricciardo got used to the Renault handling, Hulkenberg could not live with him anymore. If anything, this is only a further argument in favour of Verstappen.

4. "Perez competed against Button on egg-shelled Pirelli tyres in the first half of 2013"

Those tyres did not do much to change the pecking order in qualifying. On Saturday, the drivers were still going flat out. Once again, said poster cannot comprehend the fact that we are comparing qualifying pace and not race pace.
Anyway, what I find interesting is how Perez clearly had an upper hand on Button in the second half of 2013, when a new harder compound of tyres were introduced. This is again, only a further argument in favour of Verstappen.

5. "Formula 1 changes too much over time so cross comparisons are flawed"

From my experience, if you exclude rookie seasons and seasons where drivers are clearly past it, cross comparisons tend to be reliable way of comparing drivers speed. I could accurately predict the Bottas-Hamilton gap through Massa and Alonso. Likewise I could accurately predict the Alonso-Kimi gap through Massa.

6. "Qualifying averages are also a flawed way of comparing speed."

Here the poster misses the fact that I use medians when comparing qualifying speed, not averages. Likewise, there is almost never any significant difference between median and average, unless you have extreme outliers (which are usually excluded by people who do use averages, like Poker).
LOL.

Whaddup "Voidy"?

So who are they here then, I wonder.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by KingVoid »

Invade wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:34 pm
So who are they here then, I wonder.
sennafan24, he has an account on here

memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=20376

There is no logical reason for him to respond to my post on another forum when he can do it directly on here.

Unless of course you are afraid sennafan24 ;) I know you read all my posts

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by JN23 »

Question for KingVoid and Poker: what’s the threshold for an outlier, or does it depend on the comparison?

Eg. If two drivers always separated by less than a tenth and then one of them out five tenths on the other, it could be an outlier. But if we take Verstappen vs Albon, five tenths wouldn’t be an outlier at all.

Also to add: what would the median gap between Hamilton and Bottas be this season? Average gap is 0.188 I think (excludes Styria)

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by KingVoid »

JN23 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:56 pm
Question for KingVoid and Poker: what’s the threshold for an outlier, or does it depend on the comparison?

Eg. If two drivers always separated by less than a tenth and then one of them out five tenths on the other, it could be an outlier. But if we take Verstappen vs Albon, five tenths wouldn’t be an outlier at all.

Also to add: what would the median gap between Hamilton and Bottas be this season? Average gap is 0.188 I think (excludes Styria)
An example of an outlier would be Silverstone 2014. Rosberg outqualified Hamilton by 3.3 seconds. Technically speaking it was on merit because Hamilton himself chose to abort his final lap. However, that 3.3 second gap was obviously not representative.

That said, I don't have to worry about that because I use median gaps.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by JN23 »

KingVoid wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:13 pm
JN23 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:56 pm
Question for KingVoid and Poker: what’s the threshold for an outlier, or does it depend on the comparison?

Eg. If two drivers always separated by less than a tenth and then one of them out five tenths on the other, it could be an outlier. But if we take Verstappen vs Albon, five tenths wouldn’t be an outlier at all.

Also to add: what would the median gap between Hamilton and Bottas be this season? Average gap is 0.188 I think (excludes Styria)
An example of an outlier would be Silverstone 2014. Rosberg outqualified Hamilton by 3.3 seconds. Technically speaking it was on merit because Hamilton himself chose to abort his final lap. However, that 3.3 second gap was obviously not representative.

That said, I don't have to worry about that because I use median gaps.
Ah ok, so we’re talking massive margins basically.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by KingVoid »

I don't have an account on Planet F1. My account was deactivated years ago. Voidy, if you have an issue with any of this, sign up to here and we can debate it over PM.
Alright then

it's probably best to take this to PM anyway

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by JN23 »

Which is the other forum out of interest? Might sign up and buy some popcorn :lol:

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by KingVoid »

I am now waiting for my account to be enabled. Let's see what happens :lol:

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

JN23 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:56 pm
Question for KingVoid and Poker: what’s the threshold for an outlier, or does it depend on the comparison?

Eg. If two drivers always separated by less than a tenth and then one of them out five tenths on the other, it could be an outlier. But if we take Verstappen vs Albon, five tenths wouldn’t be an outlier at all.

Also to add: what would the median gap between Hamilton and Bottas be this season? Average gap is 0.188 I think (excludes Styria)
That would be the same as my average, for me not to consider a comparison there has basically to be some external reason preventing a driver from attempting a clean lap or a driver keeps making massive mistakes which make a mockery of making a comparison.

Again comparing Hamilton and Bottas a gap of half a second is perfectly reasonable, however over a second I would start looking into any unusual circumstance.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by JN23 »

pokerman wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:52 pm
JN23 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:56 pm
Question for KingVoid and Poker: what’s the threshold for an outlier, or does it depend on the comparison?

Eg. If two drivers always separated by less than a tenth and then one of them out five tenths on the other, it could be an outlier. But if we take Verstappen vs Albon, five tenths wouldn’t be an outlier at all.

Also to add: what would the median gap between Hamilton and Bottas be this season? Average gap is 0.188 I think (excludes Styria)
That would be the same as my average, for me not to consider a comparison there has basically to be some external reason preventing a driver from attempting a clean lap or a driver keeps making massive mistakes which make a mockery of making a comparison.

Again comparing Hamilton and Bottas a gap of half a second is perfectly reasonable, however over a second I would start looking into any unusual circumstance.
Thanks :thumbup:

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:52 pm
Again comparing Hamilton and Bottas a gap of half a second is perfectly reasonable, however over a second I would start looking into any unusual circumstance.
This is the advantage of the median gap, since it's self-correcting: unusually large results in either direction are pushed aside, and the final number will always be something within the normal band for the drivers in question.

That said, I don't consider either method accurate to three decimal places, and only maybe to two. I'd say closest tenth-and-a-half is about as far as I trust those comparisons.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Exediron »

Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:11 pm

This is the advantage of the median gap, since it's self-correcting: unusually large results in either direction are pushed aside, and the final number will always be something within the normal band for the drivers in question.

That said, I don't consider either method accurate to three decimal places, and only maybe to two. I'd say closest tenth-and-a-half is about as far as I trust those comparisons.
Quoting myself, but I felt I should add that a percentage measurement is more accurate than tenths, and I think that's where some of the inherent error comes in for these comparisons when straight tenths is used. A gap of 0.300 at Austria (~0.5%) is not at all the same as 0.300 (~0.3%) at Spa.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:20 pm
Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:11 pm

This is the advantage of the median gap, since it's self-correcting: unusually large results in either direction are pushed aside, and the final number will always be something within the normal band for the drivers in question.

That said, I don't consider either method accurate to three decimal places, and only maybe to two. I'd say closest tenth-and-a-half is about as far as I trust those comparisons.
Quoting myself, but I felt I should add that a percentage measurement is more accurate than tenths, and I think that's where some of the inherent error comes in for these comparisons when straight tenths is used. A gap of 0.300 at Austria (~0.5%) is not at all the same as 0.300 (~0.3%) at Spa.
That seems a bit of a throw away line saying that there are errors and then not coming up with anything yourself.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Invade »

pokerman wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:40 pm
Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:20 pm
Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:11 pm

This is the advantage of the median gap, since it's self-correcting: unusually large results in either direction are pushed aside, and the final number will always be something within the normal band for the drivers in question.

That said, I don't consider either method accurate to three decimal places, and only maybe to two. I'd say closest tenth-and-a-half is about as far as I trust those comparisons.
Quoting myself, but I felt I should add that a percentage measurement is more accurate than tenths, and I think that's where some of the inherent error comes in for these comparisons when straight tenths is used. A gap of 0.300 at Austria (~0.5%) is not at all the same as 0.300 (~0.3%) at Spa.
That seems a bit of a throw away line saying that there are errors and then not coming up with anything yourself.
Did he not directly come up with considering percentage as a measurement?

I wonder what the average gap between teammates is at tracks over the last 10 years or so. Perhaps the inherent nature of some tracks undermines the logic in that perhaps the nature of some longer tracks still tends to see teammates not far behind and yet the tricky and challenging nature of some shorter tracks might lend itself to bigger gaps between teammates. I don't know but ye it crossed my mind.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Exediron »

Invade wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:40 am
I wonder what the average gap between teammates is at tracks over the last 10 years or so. Perhaps the inherent nature of some tracks undermines the logic in that perhaps the nature of some longer tracks still tends to see teammates not far behind and yet the tricky and challenging nature of some shorter tracks might lend itself to bigger gaps between teammates. I don't know but ye it crossed my mind.
That would be an interesting (albeit somewhat time intensive) study to conduct. I have a feeling that some tracks would indeed tend to exaggerate gaps compared to others, but that's just a pure gut reaction.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by tootsie323 »

I'd argue that over the course of a season the average (depending on how you measure that average: mean vs median...) gap would be sufficiently representative across various circuits. The only other variable would be whether one considers if the car is the 'same' for each team-mate (never mind drivers from different teams).
If one wants to be statistically anal about it, one may eliminate any statistical outliers and come up with a confidence interval to summarise the qualifying gap, i.e. most of the time, driver A has a gap of 0.8 - 1.2% to driver B.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Exediron »

tootsie323 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:49 am
If one wants to be statistically anal about it, one may eliminate any statistical outliers and come up with a confidence interval to summarise the qualifying gap, i.e. most of the time, driver A has a gap of 0.8 - 1.2% to driver B.
[Yes, my work entails a reasonable amount of statistical analysis so this does sound quite anal!]
Don't worry -- I do statistical analysis as part of a hobby of mine, so I don't mind at all! :D

I would certainly put more weight behind such a range, but once you started to add them together to form a chain the overlapping margins would destroy any possibility of the data giving a sound conclusion.

... which is what I think happens with those chains anyway, so fair enough. Unless the drivers were partnered for a significant amount of time and showed a significantly consistent gap -- particularly if then corroborated by cross-comparions (Kimi and Massa, for example) -- the data is questionable.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by tootsie323 »

Exediron wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:00 am
tootsie323 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:49 am
If one wants to be statistically anal about it, one may eliminate any statistical outliers and come up with a confidence interval to summarise the qualifying gap, i.e. most of the time, driver A has a gap of 0.8 - 1.2% to driver B.
[Yes, my work entails a reasonable amount of statistical analysis so this does sound quite anal!]
Don't worry -- I do statistical analysis as part of a hobby of mine, so I don't mind at all! :D

I would certainly put more weight behind such a range, but once you started to add them together to form a chain the overlapping margins would destroy any possibility of the data giving a sound conclusion.

... which is what I think happens with those chains anyway, so fair enough. Unless the drivers were partnered for a significant amount of time and showed a significantly consistent gap -- particularly if then corroborated by cross-comparions (Kimi and Massa, for example) -- the data is questionable.
Ooooooh... those chains make me shudder. Far to many variables! I just don't see how one can make a robust comparison between Verstappen and Hamilton.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

Invade wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:40 am
pokerman wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:40 pm
Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:20 pm
Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:11 pm

This is the advantage of the median gap, since it's self-correcting: unusually large results in either direction are pushed aside, and the final number will always be something within the normal band for the drivers in question.

That said, I don't consider either method accurate to three decimal places, and only maybe to two. I'd say closest tenth-and-a-half is about as far as I trust those comparisons.
Quoting myself, but I felt I should add that a percentage measurement is more accurate than tenths, and I think that's where some of the inherent error comes in for these comparisons when straight tenths is used. A gap of 0.300 at Austria (~0.5%) is not at all the same as 0.300 (~0.3%) at Spa.
That seems a bit of a throw away line saying that there are errors and then not coming up with anything yourself.
Did he not directly come up with considering percentage as a measurement?

I wonder what the average gap between teammates is at tracks over the last 10 years or so. Perhaps the inherent nature of some tracks undermines the logic in that perhaps the nature of some longer tracks still tends to see teammates not far behind and yet the tricky and challenging nature of some shorter tracks might lend itself to bigger gaps between teammates. I don't know but ye it crossed my mind.
I just consider it a sweeping statement to make from someone that's not done the legwork themselves.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by babararacucudada »

Unfortunately Verstappen and Hamilton are not driving the same car on equal terms.
That is one of the many things that is wrong with F1.

It was better in the old days, when the drivers did not have lots of aids and their performance was more dependent on themselves.
Normally aspirated engines, suspension that could be tuned, tracks that needed suspension, no ground force.

Fi is heading towards being irrelevant.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

babararacucudada wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:58 pm
Unfortunately Verstappen and Hamilton are not driving the same car on equal terms.
That is one of the many things that is wrong with F1.

It was better in the old days, when the drivers did not have lots of aids and their performance was more dependent on themselves.
Normally aspirated engines, suspension that could be tuned, tracks that needed suspension, no ground force.

Fi is heading towards being irrelevant.
Has F1 not been like that for at least the past 40 years?
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