How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Badgeronimous »

I don't think Verstappen is any quicker in raw pace than what he was 3-4yrs ago - but he has grown into a far more complete package.

However that's normal for the top guys. They seem to come into the sport and once settled quickly find their speed which doesn't really grow much from there - and whilst the speed slowly fades a couple of tenths with age, the overall attribute package grows.

I don't think Hamilton is as outright fast as he was 10yrs ago (although still has it in him to pull out a special lap) but his overall attributes package is pretty complete, which it wasn't 10yrs ago.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

schumilegend wrote:
Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:41 pm
Yes Rosberg is an amazing qualifier like Trulli but they both aren't a Schumacher/Verstappen in prime
I wouldn't disagree with that.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by KingVoid »

KingVoid wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:14 am
Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.170s
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg by 0.120s
Hulkenberg > Perez by 0.040s
Perez = Button
Hamilton > Button by 0.250s

I end up with Verstappen > Hamilton by 0.090s
There's a poster on another forum who has attempted to discredit this comparison through the usual clichés. This poster also has an account here, but for whatever reason refuses to respond directly to my posts.

1. "Button and Hamilton competed on both Bridgestones and Pirellis"

The qualifying gap between Hamilton and Button, whether you look at their time on Bridgestone or Pirelli, barely changes at all. The difference in qualifying gap between 2010, 2011 and 2012 was only a few hundreds (with 2011 being the smallest and 2012 the biggest).

2. "Verstappen competed against Ricciardo in balanced Red Bull cars."

There's nothing to suggest that Verstappen would lose any performance in unstable cars. Red Bull was very unstable in the first half of 2019. They could not get the chassis working the way they wanted, because the regulation changes hurt the cars with more rake. Verstappen trashed another talented driver in Gasly by an enormous margin

3. "Ricciardo compared against Hulk in an edgy and unstable Renault car."

Yes, and Ricciardo actually struggled to adapt to the Renault at the beginning. Hulkenberg was quicker in Australia and Bahrain. But once Ricciardo got used to the Renault handling, Hulkenberg could not live with him anymore. If anything, this is only a further argument in favour of Verstappen.

4. "Perez competed against Button on egg-shelled Pirelli tyres in the first half of 2013"

Those tyres did not do much to change the pecking order in qualifying. On Saturday, the drivers were still going flat out. Once again, said poster cannot comprehend the fact that we are comparing qualifying pace and not race pace.
Anyway, what I find interesting is how Perez clearly had an upper hand on Button in the second half of 2013, when a new harder compound of tyres were introduced. This is again, only a further argument in favour of Verstappen.

5. "Formula 1 changes too much over time so cross comparisons are flawed"

From my experience, if you exclude rookie seasons and seasons where drivers are clearly past it, cross comparisons tend to be reliable way of comparing drivers speed. I could accurately predict the Bottas-Hamilton gap through Massa and Alonso. Likewise I could accurately predict the Alonso-Kimi gap through Massa.

6. "Qualifying averages are also a flawed way of comparing speed."

Here the poster misses the fact that I use medians when comparing qualifying speed, not averages. Likewise, there is almost never any significant difference between median and average, unless you have extreme outliers (which are usually excluded by people who do use averages, like Poker).

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Invade »

KingVoid wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:28 pm
KingVoid wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 12:14 am
Verstappen > Ricciardo by 0.170s
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg by 0.120s
Hulkenberg > Perez by 0.040s
Perez = Button
Hamilton > Button by 0.250s

I end up with Verstappen > Hamilton by 0.090s
There's a poster on another forum who has attempted to discredit this comparison through the usual clichés. This poster also has an account here, but for whatever reason refuses to respond directly to my posts.

1. "Button and Hamilton competed on both Bridgestones and Pirellis"

The qualifying gap between Hamilton and Button, whether you look at their time on Bridgestone or Pirelli, barely changes at all. The difference in qualifying gap between 2010, 2011 and 2012 was only a few hundreds (with 2011 being the smallest and 2012 the biggest).

2. "Verstappen competed against Ricciardo in balanced Red Bull cars."

There's nothing to suggest that Verstappen would lose any performance in unstable cars. Red Bull was very unstable in the first half of 2019. They could not get the chassis working the way they wanted, because the regulation changes hurt the cars with more rake. Verstappen trashed another talented driver in Gasly by an enormous margin

3. "Ricciardo compared against Hulk in an edgy and unstable Renault car."

Yes, and Ricciardo actually struggled to adapt to the Renault at the beginning. Hulkenberg was quicker in Australia and Bahrain. But once Ricciardo got used to the Renault handling, Hulkenberg could not live with him anymore. If anything, this is only a further argument in favour of Verstappen.

4. "Perez competed against Button on egg-shelled Pirelli tyres in the first half of 2013"

Those tyres did not do much to change the pecking order in qualifying. On Saturday, the drivers were still going flat out. Once again, said poster cannot comprehend the fact that we are comparing qualifying pace and not race pace.
Anyway, what I find interesting is how Perez clearly had an upper hand on Button in the second half of 2013, when a new harder compound of tyres were introduced. This is again, only a further argument in favour of Verstappen.

5. "Formula 1 changes too much over time so cross comparisons are flawed"

From my experience, if you exclude rookie seasons and seasons where drivers are clearly past it, cross comparisons tend to be reliable way of comparing drivers speed. I could accurately predict the Bottas-Hamilton gap through Massa and Alonso. Likewise I could accurately predict the Alonso-Kimi gap through Massa.

6. "Qualifying averages are also a flawed way of comparing speed."

Here the poster misses the fact that I use medians when comparing qualifying speed, not averages. Likewise, there is almost never any significant difference between median and average, unless you have extreme outliers (which are usually excluded by people who do use averages, like Poker).
LOL.

Whaddup "Voidy"?

So who are they here then, I wonder.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by KingVoid »

Invade wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 4:34 pm
So who are they here then, I wonder.
sennafan24, he has an account on here

memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=20376

There is no logical reason for him to respond to my post on another forum when he can do it directly on here.

Unless of course you are afraid sennafan24 ;) I know you read all my posts

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by JN23 »

Question for KingVoid and Poker: what’s the threshold for an outlier, or does it depend on the comparison?

Eg. If two drivers always separated by less than a tenth and then one of them out five tenths on the other, it could be an outlier. But if we take Verstappen vs Albon, five tenths wouldn’t be an outlier at all.

Also to add: what would the median gap between Hamilton and Bottas be this season? Average gap is 0.188 I think (excludes Styria)

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by KingVoid »

JN23 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:56 pm
Question for KingVoid and Poker: what’s the threshold for an outlier, or does it depend on the comparison?

Eg. If two drivers always separated by less than a tenth and then one of them out five tenths on the other, it could be an outlier. But if we take Verstappen vs Albon, five tenths wouldn’t be an outlier at all.

Also to add: what would the median gap between Hamilton and Bottas be this season? Average gap is 0.188 I think (excludes Styria)
An example of an outlier would be Silverstone 2014. Rosberg outqualified Hamilton by 3.3 seconds. Technically speaking it was on merit because Hamilton himself chose to abort his final lap. However, that 3.3 second gap was obviously not representative.

That said, I don't have to worry about that because I use median gaps.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by JN23 »

KingVoid wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:13 pm
JN23 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:56 pm
Question for KingVoid and Poker: what’s the threshold for an outlier, or does it depend on the comparison?

Eg. If two drivers always separated by less than a tenth and then one of them out five tenths on the other, it could be an outlier. But if we take Verstappen vs Albon, five tenths wouldn’t be an outlier at all.

Also to add: what would the median gap between Hamilton and Bottas be this season? Average gap is 0.188 I think (excludes Styria)
An example of an outlier would be Silverstone 2014. Rosberg outqualified Hamilton by 3.3 seconds. Technically speaking it was on merit because Hamilton himself chose to abort his final lap. However, that 3.3 second gap was obviously not representative.

That said, I don't have to worry about that because I use median gaps.
Ah ok, so we’re talking massive margins basically.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by KingVoid »

I don't have an account on Planet F1. My account was deactivated years ago. Voidy, if you have an issue with any of this, sign up to here and we can debate it over PM.
Alright then

it's probably best to take this to PM anyway

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by JN23 »

Which is the other forum out of interest? Might sign up and buy some popcorn :lol:

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by KingVoid »

I am now waiting for my account to be enabled. Let's see what happens :lol:

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

JN23 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:56 pm
Question for KingVoid and Poker: what’s the threshold for an outlier, or does it depend on the comparison?

Eg. If two drivers always separated by less than a tenth and then one of them out five tenths on the other, it could be an outlier. But if we take Verstappen vs Albon, five tenths wouldn’t be an outlier at all.

Also to add: what would the median gap between Hamilton and Bottas be this season? Average gap is 0.188 I think (excludes Styria)
That would be the same as my average, for me not to consider a comparison there has basically to be some external reason preventing a driver from attempting a clean lap or a driver keeps making massive mistakes which make a mockery of making a comparison.

Again comparing Hamilton and Bottas a gap of half a second is perfectly reasonable, however over a second I would start looking into any unusual circumstance.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by JN23 »

pokerman wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:52 pm
JN23 wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 5:56 pm
Question for KingVoid and Poker: what’s the threshold for an outlier, or does it depend on the comparison?

Eg. If two drivers always separated by less than a tenth and then one of them out five tenths on the other, it could be an outlier. But if we take Verstappen vs Albon, five tenths wouldn’t be an outlier at all.

Also to add: what would the median gap between Hamilton and Bottas be this season? Average gap is 0.188 I think (excludes Styria)
That would be the same as my average, for me not to consider a comparison there has basically to be some external reason preventing a driver from attempting a clean lap or a driver keeps making massive mistakes which make a mockery of making a comparison.

Again comparing Hamilton and Bottas a gap of half a second is perfectly reasonable, however over a second I would start looking into any unusual circumstance.
Thanks :thumbup:

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:52 pm
Again comparing Hamilton and Bottas a gap of half a second is perfectly reasonable, however over a second I would start looking into any unusual circumstance.
This is the advantage of the median gap, since it's self-correcting: unusually large results in either direction are pushed aside, and the final number will always be something within the normal band for the drivers in question.

That said, I don't consider either method accurate to three decimal places, and only maybe to two. I'd say closest tenth-and-a-half is about as far as I trust those comparisons.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Exediron »

Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:11 pm

This is the advantage of the median gap, since it's self-correcting: unusually large results in either direction are pushed aside, and the final number will always be something within the normal band for the drivers in question.

That said, I don't consider either method accurate to three decimal places, and only maybe to two. I'd say closest tenth-and-a-half is about as far as I trust those comparisons.
Quoting myself, but I felt I should add that a percentage measurement is more accurate than tenths, and I think that's where some of the inherent error comes in for these comparisons when straight tenths is used. A gap of 0.300 at Austria (~0.5%) is not at all the same as 0.300 (~0.3%) at Spa.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:20 pm
Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:11 pm

This is the advantage of the median gap, since it's self-correcting: unusually large results in either direction are pushed aside, and the final number will always be something within the normal band for the drivers in question.

That said, I don't consider either method accurate to three decimal places, and only maybe to two. I'd say closest tenth-and-a-half is about as far as I trust those comparisons.
Quoting myself, but I felt I should add that a percentage measurement is more accurate than tenths, and I think that's where some of the inherent error comes in for these comparisons when straight tenths is used. A gap of 0.300 at Austria (~0.5%) is not at all the same as 0.300 (~0.3%) at Spa.
That seems a bit of a throw away line saying that there are errors and then not coming up with anything yourself.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Invade »

pokerman wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:40 pm
Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:20 pm
Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:11 pm

This is the advantage of the median gap, since it's self-correcting: unusually large results in either direction are pushed aside, and the final number will always be something within the normal band for the drivers in question.

That said, I don't consider either method accurate to three decimal places, and only maybe to two. I'd say closest tenth-and-a-half is about as far as I trust those comparisons.
Quoting myself, but I felt I should add that a percentage measurement is more accurate than tenths, and I think that's where some of the inherent error comes in for these comparisons when straight tenths is used. A gap of 0.300 at Austria (~0.5%) is not at all the same as 0.300 (~0.3%) at Spa.
That seems a bit of a throw away line saying that there are errors and then not coming up with anything yourself.
Did he not directly come up with considering percentage as a measurement?

I wonder what the average gap between teammates is at tracks over the last 10 years or so. Perhaps the inherent nature of some tracks undermines the logic in that perhaps the nature of some longer tracks still tends to see teammates not far behind and yet the tricky and challenging nature of some shorter tracks might lend itself to bigger gaps between teammates. I don't know but ye it crossed my mind.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Exediron »

Invade wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:40 am
I wonder what the average gap between teammates is at tracks over the last 10 years or so. Perhaps the inherent nature of some tracks undermines the logic in that perhaps the nature of some longer tracks still tends to see teammates not far behind and yet the tricky and challenging nature of some shorter tracks might lend itself to bigger gaps between teammates. I don't know but ye it crossed my mind.
That would be an interesting (albeit somewhat time intensive) study to conduct. I have a feeling that some tracks would indeed tend to exaggerate gaps compared to others, but that's just a pure gut reaction.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by tootsie323 »

I'd argue that over the course of a season the average (depending on how you measure that average: mean vs median...) gap would be sufficiently representative across various circuits. The only other variable would be whether one considers if the car is the 'same' for each team-mate (never mind drivers from different teams).
If one wants to be statistically anal about it, one may eliminate any statistical outliers and come up with a confidence interval to summarise the qualifying gap, i.e. most of the time, driver A has a gap of 0.8 - 1.2% to driver B.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Exediron »

tootsie323 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:49 am
If one wants to be statistically anal about it, one may eliminate any statistical outliers and come up with a confidence interval to summarise the qualifying gap, i.e. most of the time, driver A has a gap of 0.8 - 1.2% to driver B.
[Yes, my work entails a reasonable amount of statistical analysis so this does sound quite anal!]
Don't worry -- I do statistical analysis as part of a hobby of mine, so I don't mind at all! :D

I would certainly put more weight behind such a range, but once you started to add them together to form a chain the overlapping margins would destroy any possibility of the data giving a sound conclusion.

... which is what I think happens with those chains anyway, so fair enough. Unless the drivers were partnered for a significant amount of time and showed a significantly consistent gap -- particularly if then corroborated by cross-comparions (Kimi and Massa, for example) -- the data is questionable.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by tootsie323 »

Exediron wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:00 am
tootsie323 wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:49 am
If one wants to be statistically anal about it, one may eliminate any statistical outliers and come up with a confidence interval to summarise the qualifying gap, i.e. most of the time, driver A has a gap of 0.8 - 1.2% to driver B.
[Yes, my work entails a reasonable amount of statistical analysis so this does sound quite anal!]
Don't worry -- I do statistical analysis as part of a hobby of mine, so I don't mind at all! :D

I would certainly put more weight behind such a range, but once you started to add them together to form a chain the overlapping margins would destroy any possibility of the data giving a sound conclusion.

... which is what I think happens with those chains anyway, so fair enough. Unless the drivers were partnered for a significant amount of time and showed a significantly consistent gap -- particularly if then corroborated by cross-comparions (Kimi and Massa, for example) -- the data is questionable.
Ooooooh... those chains make me shudder. Far to many variables! I just don't see how one can make a robust comparison between Verstappen and Hamilton.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

Invade wrote:
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:40 am
pokerman wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 11:40 pm
Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 10:20 pm
Exediron wrote:
Sat Sep 26, 2020 8:11 pm

This is the advantage of the median gap, since it's self-correcting: unusually large results in either direction are pushed aside, and the final number will always be something within the normal band for the drivers in question.

That said, I don't consider either method accurate to three decimal places, and only maybe to two. I'd say closest tenth-and-a-half is about as far as I trust those comparisons.
Quoting myself, but I felt I should add that a percentage measurement is more accurate than tenths, and I think that's where some of the inherent error comes in for these comparisons when straight tenths is used. A gap of 0.300 at Austria (~0.5%) is not at all the same as 0.300 (~0.3%) at Spa.
That seems a bit of a throw away line saying that there are errors and then not coming up with anything yourself.
Did he not directly come up with considering percentage as a measurement?

I wonder what the average gap between teammates is at tracks over the last 10 years or so. Perhaps the inherent nature of some tracks undermines the logic in that perhaps the nature of some longer tracks still tends to see teammates not far behind and yet the tricky and challenging nature of some shorter tracks might lend itself to bigger gaps between teammates. I don't know but ye it crossed my mind.
I just consider it a sweeping statement to make from someone that's not done the legwork themselves.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by babararacucudada »

Unfortunately Verstappen and Hamilton are not driving the same car on equal terms.
That is one of the many things that is wrong with F1.

It was better in the old days, when the drivers did not have lots of aids and their performance was more dependent on themselves.
Normally aspirated engines, suspension that could be tuned, tracks that needed suspension, no ground force.

Fi is heading towards being irrelevant.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

babararacucudada wrote:
Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:58 pm
Unfortunately Verstappen and Hamilton are not driving the same car on equal terms.
That is one of the many things that is wrong with F1.

It was better in the old days, when the drivers did not have lots of aids and their performance was more dependent on themselves.
Normally aspirated engines, suspension that could be tuned, tracks that needed suspension, no ground force.

Fi is heading towards being irrelevant.
Has F1 not been like that for at least the past 40 years?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Invade »

Hamilton's best days are nutty but Verstappen is generally a bit quicker in qualifying, I'd wager.

In race pace, it's difficult to say - both are extremely strong. Hamilton probably edges it in races through general decision making, but Max is also now a mature racer.


I think if they were put up against each other, it would come down to who can best handle seeing a competitor eye to eye mentally. I do tend to favour youth over experience in such a situation because the youth tends to be hungrier for success. History has a habit of showing an equally talented youth overcoming the experienced legend... cycle of life and all that.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

It amazes me how people think that default position is that the driver who has failed to get poles he should have is faster in qualifying than the driver who has 50% more poles than Senna.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Option or Prime »

Hard to argue that long term youth wins out however, I do think a major difference between the two is temperament.
Max like Vettel to some extent is subject to the red mist. Unlike Vettell though it comes out verbally. Hamilton get agitated but never rattled like that.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Invade »

Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:02 am
It amazes me how people think that default position is that the driver who has failed to get poles he should have is faster in qualifying than the driver who has 50% more poles than Senna.
I don't really see what's remotely controversial about it. Verstappen has the biggest average qualifying gap to his teammate of all the drivers and won the battle 17-0.

It's actually distinctly unamazing.
Option or Prime wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:07 am
Hard to argue that long term youth wins out however, I do think a major difference between the two is temperament.
Max like Vettel to some extent is subject to the red mist. Unlike Vettell though it comes out verbally. Hamilton get agitated but never rattled like that.
Max has come a long way but we're all eager to see if his temperament holds in a genuine title fight.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Exediron »

Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:09 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:02 am
It amazes me how people think that default position is that the driver who has failed to get poles he should have is faster in qualifying than the driver who has 50% more poles than Senna.
I don't really see what's remotely controversial about it. Verstappen has the biggest average qualifying gap to his teammate of all the drivers and won the battle 17-0.

It's actually distinctly unamazing.
Well, when Alonso did the same to Vandoorne it was just proof that Stoffel was awful and shouldn't be anywhere near an F1 grid. How you're already perceived shapes the reaction to such a one-sided match-up a lot.

Alonso had this popular (and wrong) perception that he was a slow qualifier, so when he blanked Vandoorne it meant Vandoorne was bad. Max is already seen as the quickest on the grid, so if he blanks someone it's proof of his speed.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Invade »

Exediron wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:50 am
Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:09 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:02 am
It amazes me how people think that default position is that the driver who has failed to get poles he should have is faster in qualifying than the driver who has 50% more poles than Senna.
I don't really see what's remotely controversial about it. Verstappen has the biggest average qualifying gap to his teammate of all the drivers and won the battle 17-0.

It's actually distinctly unamazing.
Well, when Alonso did the same to Vandoorne it was just proof that Stoffel was awful and shouldn't be anywhere near an F1 grid. How you're already perceived shapes the reaction to such a one-sided match-up a lot.

Alonso had this popular (and wrong) perception that he was a slow qualifier, so when he blanked Vandoorne it meant Vandoorne was bad. Max is already seen as the quickest on the grid, so if he blanks someone it's proof of his speed.
IIRC Verstappen's gap is a fair bit larger than Alonso's was to Vandoorne, but what you say is true regarding perception. I'm not one of those though, as I've mentioned several times on these boards that Alonso should really be considered in similar league to the best even in qualifying. He consistently demonstrated dominance over his teammates and has the sort of percentages to his name more in the bracket of Schumacher than Hamilton when it comes to whoopin' up on teammates.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by F1Tyrant »

Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:46 am
Hamilton's best days are nutty but Verstappen is generally a bit quicker in qualifying, I'd wager.
I get a sense on this board that Hamilton is criminally underrated in qualifying and a touch overrated in race pace. I've always felt he was more consistent over one lap.

Once Max has a teammates of the qualifying prowess of Alonso, Rosberg or Bottas then I might start to believe. Ricciardo is clearly a talented qualifier.
Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:46 am
I do tend to favour youth over experience in such a situation because the youth tends to be hungrier for success. History has a habit of showing an equally talented youth overcoming the experienced legend... cycle of life and all that.
I'm not sure that's true at all. Lauda beat Prost in 1984, Prost beat Senna in 1989, Hill beat Villeneuve in 1996. It's been a while though!
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Invade »

BTW Exediron, your point is generally big problem with judgment in F1 across the board. People settle in baselines for driver performance and find it hard to move from a rigid stance even in the face of overwhelming evidence or alternative circumstances. Because F1 is so mysterious where any measurement is unreliable because of the complex dynamics of car and driver, it seems many fans cling onto some general impression which promises some sort of truth, and (somewhat ironically) clings onto the baseline judgment with certainty as to evaluate future performance. This is far less of a problem in sports where coming to judgment is far more obvious, where each performance can be looked at more in and of itself.

Now, this doesn't always happen. It's obvious that many have flipflopped on Gasly and some have him as a top-5 driver for the year in 2020, which is a complete turnaround from how he was viewed in 2019. But anyway, I think the general point stands.
Last edited by Invade on Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Invade »

F1Tyrant wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:00 am
Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:46 am
Hamilton's best days are nutty but Verstappen is generally a bit quicker in qualifying, I'd wager.
I get a sense on this board that Hamilton is criminally underrated in qualifying and a touch overrated in race pace. I've always felt he was more consistent over one lap.

Once Max has a teammates of the qualifying prowess of Alonso, Rosberg or Bottas then I might start to believe. Ricciardo is clearly a talented qualifier.
Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:46 am
I do tend to favour youth over experience in such a situation because the youth tends to be hungrier for success. History has a habit of showing an equally talented youth overcoming the experienced legend... cycle of life and all that.
I'm not sure that's true at all. Lauda beat Prost in 1984, Prost beat Senna in 1989, Hill beat Villeneuve in 1996. It's been a while though!
Well I'm guessing most people on this board have Hamilton as a top-3 qualifier for the season? I have him at #2. He outqualified Bottas by an average of ~0.11s according to one measure I've seen. Bottas is a good qualifier and Hamilton did have a clear edge, but I'd hardly be surprised if Verstappen and Leclerc also edged him similarly. Ricciardo and Russell were also very strong in qualifying in 2020.

For the last 2 seasons, I've had Hamilton as being more consistent over the race than one lap (it's close), so I think that transition has been completed, so to speak. I think Hamilton made real gains in terms of consistency of his race pace and that is something he has also spoken about himself. Perhaps he went up a step there since 2018 or so, though I feel he's been even more relentless in races in 2019 and 2020. Meanwhile, his advantage over Bottas in qualifying has dwindled slightly on the whole since 2017, but it's more or less stable, so not much to speak of there. Maybe Bottas got a bit better.

Oh yeah - no doubt experience can win over youth and has done but in the end the legend gets overhauled more often than not. I'm not saying that youth will instantly beat experience but there's a psychological element at play in which in the end the old dog gets tired and the young one just gets hungrier and hungrier to overthrow the king and take the throne.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:09 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:02 am
It amazes me how people think that default position is that the driver who has failed to get poles he should have is faster in qualifying than the driver who has 50% more poles than Senna.
I don't really see what's remotely controversial about it. Verstappen has the biggest average qualifying gap to his teammate of all the drivers and won the battle 17-0.

It's actually distinctly unamazing.
Option or Prime wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:07 am
Hard to argue that long term youth wins out however, I do think a major difference between the two is temperament.
Max like Vettel to some extent is subject to the red mist. Unlike Vettell though it comes out verbally. Hamilton get agitated but never rattled like that.
Max has come a long way but we're all eager to see if his temperament holds in a genuine title fight.
I would argue that as being Russell.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Invade »

pokerman wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:49 pm
Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:09 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:02 am
It amazes me how people think that default position is that the driver who has failed to get poles he should have is faster in qualifying than the driver who has 50% more poles than Senna.
I don't really see what's remotely controversial about it. Verstappen has the biggest average qualifying gap to his teammate of all the drivers and won the battle 17-0.

It's actually distinctly unamazing.
Option or Prime wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:07 am
Hard to argue that long term youth wins out however, I do think a major difference between the two is temperament.
Max like Vettel to some extent is subject to the red mist. Unlike Vettell though it comes out verbally. Hamilton get agitated but never rattled like that.
Max has come a long way but we're all eager to see if his temperament holds in a genuine title fight.
I would argue that as being Russell.
I'm only relying on one measure but I just checked it and Russell came out 0.54s ahead and Verstappen 0.51s ahead, so yes.

Do you track this? What do your own stats say for that and also I'm curious to know what you have for Hamilton vs Bottas..?

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

I think a lot of things point to Verstappen being slightly quicker than Hamilton over one lap but should we also not be asking how fast is Leclerc relative to Verstappen?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Invade »

pokerman wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:56 pm
I think a lot of things point to Verstappen being slightly quicker than Hamilton over one lap but should we also not be asking how fast is Leclerc relative to Verstappen?

Possibly faster, but more average sessions.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by Schumacher forever#1 »

F1Tyrant wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:00 am
Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:46 am
Hamilton's best days are nutty but Verstappen is generally a bit quicker in qualifying, I'd wager.
I get a sense on this board that Hamilton is criminally underrated in qualifying and a touch overrated in race pace. I've always felt he was more consistent over one lap.

Once Max has a teammates of the qualifying prowess of Alonso, Rosberg or Bottas then I might start to believe. Ricciardo is clearly a talented qualifier.
Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:46 am
I do tend to favour youth over experience in such a situation because the youth tends to be hungrier for success. History has a habit of showing an equally talented youth overcoming the experienced legend... cycle of life and all that.
I'm not sure that's true at all. Lauda beat Prost in 1984, Prost beat Senna in 1989, Hill beat Villeneuve in 1996. It's been a while though!
Is Ricciardo only a clearly talented qualifier? Ricciardo beat Hulkenberg in qualifying, and Hulkenberg was in my opinion, one of the top qualifiers in F1. Alonso said himself that Hamilton, Ricciardo and Hulkenberg were the top three drivers in F1 in 2015, and we know Alonso has a history in predicting correctly the strengths of various F1 drivers. Therefore, for Verstappen to out-qualify Ricciardo by nearly two percent in their two full years (https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... ualifying/) is an enormous feat IMO. I'd wager that Ricciardo would out-qualify Bottas, and therefore as a direct result, Verstappen to probably both out-qualify Hamilton and Bottas.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:55 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:49 pm
Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:09 am
Alienturnedhuman wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:02 am
It amazes me how people think that default position is that the driver who has failed to get poles he should have is faster in qualifying than the driver who has 50% more poles than Senna.
I don't really see what's remotely controversial about it. Verstappen has the biggest average qualifying gap to his teammate of all the drivers and won the battle 17-0.

It's actually distinctly unamazing.
Option or Prime wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:07 am
Hard to argue that long term youth wins out however, I do think a major difference between the two is temperament.
Max like Vettel to some extent is subject to the red mist. Unlike Vettell though it comes out verbally. Hamilton get agitated but never rattled like that.
Max has come a long way but we're all eager to see if his temperament holds in a genuine title fight.
I would argue that as being Russell.
I'm only relying on one measure but I just checked it and Russell came out 0.54s ahead and Verstappen 0.51s ahead, so yes.

Do you track this? What do your own stats say for that and also I'm curious to know what you have for Hamilton vs Bottas..?
Sent you a pm with my stats.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

Post by pokerman »

Invade wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:59 pm
pokerman wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 2:56 pm
I think a lot of things point to Verstappen being slightly quicker than Hamilton over one lap but should we also not be asking how fast is Leclerc relative to Verstappen?

Possibly faster, but more average sessions.
Yes that doesn't mean it would be a wash out.
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