How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

Option or Prime wrote:Out of interest how long would Verstappen have to go without winning a WDC before fans concluded that despite his speed he didn't have the 'x factor' to be a champion.
With Leclerc in position already in a top team wouldn't he be in pole position to take one when Hamilton retires? Alternatively is the RB/Honda package good enough to overtake Mercedes and Ferrari?
I dont think that would make any difference if people saw him putting in great performances. Look at Moss. Look at Alonso, few would argue he doesn't have the 'x factor' and yet if the Renault had been a little slower in 05/06 he may never have won a championship.

Whether or not Max will go down as a great will be determined by his performances, his number of championsships will largely be determined by his machinery.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Option or Prime »

Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:Out of interest how long would Verstappen have to go without winning a WDC before fans concluded that despite his speed he didn't have the 'x factor' to be a champion.
With Leclerc in position already in a top team wouldn't he be in pole position to take one when Hamilton retires? Alternatively is the RB/Honda package good enough to overtake Mercedes and Ferrari?
I dont think that would make any difference if people saw him putting in great performances. Look at Moss. Look at Alonso, few would argue he doesn't have the 'x factor' and yet if the Renault had been a little slower in 05/06 he may never have won a championship.

Whether or not Max will go down as a great will be determined by his performances, his number of championsships will largely be determined by his machinery.
Yes, I see what you mean, its just that of the next generation, MV has risen to top of the pile however, Hamilton Joined Mercedes just at the right time to hit his winning run. Similarly Button was was in the right place at the right time, I just wonder if another serendipitous moment is just round the corner?

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

Option or Prime wrote:Out of interest how long would Verstappen have to go without winning a WDC before fans concluded that despite his speed he didn't have the 'x factor' to be a champion.
With Leclerc in position already in a top team wouldn't he be in pole position to take one when Hamilton retires? Alternatively is the RB/Honda package good enough to overtake Mercedes and Ferrari?
I think Max will have to at least have a legitimate shot at a WDC before anyone concludes that. Within the next three years, either Red Bull will deliver that opportunity or Max will sign with Mercedes. That's the way I see it at least. Until he has a real chance, there is really nothing to be said about "x-factors".

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by FormulaFun »

Would like to know how Hamilton calculates compared to Bottas if you take bottas Vs massa, Massa vs alonso, Alonso Vs Hamilton

And then compare that to reality.

I really don't think this methodology of comparisons works when it's so dilluted down, particularly making leaps between pre and post 2014.

One driver alone who shows how much drivers have been affected by the rule changes and subsequent necessary changes to driving style is vettel. He alone has shown that it makes no sense to compare pre 2014 performance to post 2014 because the cars changed SO much

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

FormulaFun wrote:Would like to know how Hamilton calculates compared to Bottas if you take bottas Vs massa, Massa vs alonso, Alonso Vs Hamilton

And then compare that to reality.

I really don't think this methodology of comparisons works when it's so dilluted down, particularly making leaps between pre and post 2014.

One driver alone who shows how much drivers have been affected by the rule changes and subsequent necessary changes to driving style is vettel. He alone has shown that it makes no sense to compare pre 2014 performance to post 2014 because the cars changed SO much
And yet the best drivers from before 2014 were still the best drivers after 2014. The ones in the middle were still in the middle and the ones who weren't really up to it still weren't really up to it.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Exediron »

FormulaFun wrote:Would like to know how Hamilton calculates compared to Bottas if you take bottas Vs massa, Massa vs alonso, Alonso Vs Hamilton

And then compare that to reality.

I really don't think this methodology of comparisons works when it's so dilluted down, particularly making leaps between pre and post 2014.

One driver alone who shows how much drivers have been affected by the rule changes and subsequent necessary changes to driving style is vettel. He alone has shown that it makes no sense to compare pre 2014 performance to post 2014 because the cars changed SO much
I believe the comparison suggests something close to the reality. IIRC, it's approximately:

Bottas > Massa by ~0.18
Alonso > Massa by ~0.28
Hamilton > Alonso by ~0.07

Suggesting Hamilton > Bottas ~0.17

Although it should be noted that I think pokerman's method is slightly flawed in using unmodified tenths instead of percentages, skewing the statistical significance towards the longer tracks. In general, it does give something close to the actual performance. I think it's accurate to about a tenth - it definitely suggests which driver is quicker if their comparison is outside that margin, but I do not believe it is accurate to a level of detail much past a tenth, certainly not past half a tenth.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by FormulaFun »

mikeyg123 wrote:
FormulaFun wrote:Would like to know how Hamilton calculates compared to Bottas if you take bottas Vs massa, Massa vs alonso, Alonso Vs Hamilton

And then compare that to reality.

I really don't think this methodology of comparisons works when it's so dilluted down, particularly making leaps between pre and post 2014.

One driver alone who shows how much drivers have been affected by the rule changes and subsequent necessary changes to driving style is vettel. He alone has shown that it makes no sense to compare pre 2014 performance to post 2014 because the cars changed SO much
And yet the best drivers from before 2014 were still the best drivers after 2014. The ones in the middle were still in the middle and the ones who weren't really up to it still weren't really up to it.
You're talking nonsensel, look at the details. Vettel is not on the same level he was, Hamilton has stepped up massively and that's helped by his main strength in his adaptability as a driver, different tyres in 2011 made tyre saving very important.

How can you say the best drivers were still the best and mid tier is still mid tier post 2014 when the whole field has basically changed? Alonso and Button retired after a couple years in bad cars, Webber retired before 2014 season so we can't really speak about them, we don't have a bench mark of Riccardo, Verstappen, Leclerc, Bottas, pre 2014, who are some of the current top drivers in top teams and pretty much the whole midfield is different now and was constantly changing pre 2014, more than it is now even.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

FormulaFun wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
FormulaFun wrote:Would like to know how Hamilton calculates compared to Bottas if you take bottas Vs massa, Massa vs alonso, Alonso Vs Hamilton

And then compare that to reality.

I really don't think this methodology of comparisons works when it's so dilluted down, particularly making leaps between pre and post 2014.

One driver alone who shows how much drivers have been affected by the rule changes and subsequent necessary changes to driving style is vettel. He alone has shown that it makes no sense to compare pre 2014 performance to post 2014 because the cars changed SO much
And yet the best drivers from before 2014 were still the best drivers after 2014. The ones in the middle were still in the middle and the ones who weren't really up to it still weren't really up to it.
You're talking nonsensel, look at the details. Vettel is not on the same level he was, Hamilton has stepped up massively and that's helped by his main strength in his adaptability as a driver, different tyres in 2011 made tyre saving very important.

How can you say the best drivers were still the best and mid tier is still mid tier post 2014 when the whole field has basically changed? Alonso and Button retired after a couple years in bad cars, Webber retired before 2014 season so we can't really speak about them, we don't have a bench mark of Riccardo, Verstappen, Leclerc, Bottas, pre 2014, who are some of the current top drivers in top teams and pretty much the whole midfield is different now and was constantly changing pre 2014, more than it is now even.
What? We don't see them all now but we did see most of the same drivers who competed in 2013 compete in 2014 so we know how they compare and the field stayed roughly the same.

Hamilton might be better now but was considered one of the better drivers pre 2014 as well.

There may have been subtle changes but not the big change in the pecking order necessary to render all pre-2014 comparisons null and void.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: There isn't data to make predictions about Hamilton and Verstappen either. They have never raced against each other as teammates. They do not have any teammates in common and their teammates do not have any teammates in common. The way that you are attempting to connect them is completely bogus.
In your opinion, the fact you bring forward Kimi/Massa and Schumacher/Rosberg to somehow try and show the comparisons to be bogus for me shows a little lack of understanding, I would say that both predictions were wrong because of a lack of data of how the match ups might turn out?

Edit: Regarding Vertsappen and Hamilton this prediction comes from KingVoid not from me as such, I would prefer a bit more data before looking to set things in stone as such.
A lack of understanding? I find it amusing that you would choose to make a condescending comment about this when you and I have recently discussed your whole method of trying to come up with these answers in detail. You know full well that I know exactly how you do it. You also know that I have explained quite clearly why it is not a valid method and have also provided other examples where it doesn't work. Your response, at the time, was to provide anecdotal evidence of examples where it did work to a relatively close degree. My attempt to explain why that anecdotal evidence doesn't constitute a proof clearly fell on deaf ears.

The type of evidence that you claim supports the Hamilton/Verstappen hypothesis is the exact same kind you could use for Massa/Kimi or Rosberg/Schumacher. Rosberg had, in fact, been teamed up with Alex Wurz in 2007 and was usually quicker. Wurz was a teammate to Giancarlo Fiscichella in the 1998-2000 time-frame and was generally slower (I won't tally up their qualifying gaps - perhaps you already have?). Now Fisichella later went on to team with Massa at Sauber in 2004 and comfortably beat him. Massa went on to team up with Jaques Villeneuve in 2005 and then Schumacher in 2006. Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa both had a full season as Nick Heidfeld's teammate actually (both losing to him in the points). Raikkonen in 2001 and Massa in 2002. Even After that, Raikkonen teamed with Coulthard, who eventually teamed with Mark Webber, who spent a season teamed with Nico Rosberg, etc.

So you could easily connect the dots and try to come up with numbers to determine who would finish where between these drivers but there would be one problem. You'd be wasting your f*#@ing time!
Were did you miss such things as not using rookie data, also any such compilations I stopped making in the mid 2000s because the qualifying systems at the time were a lottery and rendered such things as useless, before that it was pre internet and I didn't give any thought to making cross driver comparisons, it's only recently when I started seeing some correlation that it perked my interest.

The condescending comment is because how can you blame any system for getting the Kimi/Massa and Schumacher/Rosberg predictions wrong when such systems were not being used to make those predictions in the first place?
Both Kimi and Massa were rookies when they faced Heidfeld so any rookie variable would be factored out there. If you make an effort to remove lottery aspects from your comparison then you must also exclude sessions where one driver has an upgrade but the other doesn't. You would also have to ensure that they were in the same window with their race engine. If one driver just got a new unit placed in his car while the other driver was on his 5th race, surely that session cannot count? You would also have to factor out their position on the race track and the timing of their lap (how late in the session and how much rubber was down). Did they get a slipstream? Was the track temperature the same? Did either of them make a mistake (you're measuring speed not the ability to avoid errors)? Etc.

You would also need to look at the variance of a given data set as well as the number of data points and determine whether or not you even have a statistically significant difference established (I'll spoil that one - you don't). If you want to use a scientifically oriented method then you have to observe the rules. I think it's arguable that looking at qualifying margins between teammates over the course of a few seasons can tell you which one is faster. The idea that it can produce an exact figure that is reliable is completely bogus however. You can't pick and choose when to apply scientific thinking. You either accept it or you reject it. Right now you are like the man who listens to meteorologists when they predict that it's going to rain today but ignores them when they discuss climate change.
A good explanation why you are opposed to such things but then again what we see is somewhat of an illusion because there a myriad of reasons why one driver is quicker than another driver which doesn't relate to the actual reality?

How can we even begin to know who are the fastest drivers when we give our opinion to who are the fastest drivers?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

sandman1347 wrote:
Laz_T800 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:This conversation reminds me of 2007/2008 when discussing Hamilton versus Alonso.

Just as it was obvious back then that Hamilton was going to be a top drawer driver back then, it is obvious that Max is going to be a top drawer driver as well.

But just as it was ridiculous to say that Hamilton was the fastest ever driver back then, it is ridiculous to say the same of Max today. Max has to deliver on his potential just as Hamilton has had to.

And if you are making the case for Max being the fastest ever driver, your argument has to consist of more than just "I've done these qualifying deltas between team mates" - for many many reasons. For a start, qualifying is only one measure of a driver's speed, secondly, this qualifying deltas are notoriously imprecise and have huge error bars, yet are being used here as if they have the precision of an atomic clock. There is also the issue of the impact that strategy has on qualifying times, if the one season of data being used represented an off season for the other driver in question, tyres, weather, temperatures, relative performance of the other cars (for instance, from 2014-2016, Hamilton and Rosberg only had to beat each other as they were guaranteed to lock out the front row in most races, and even if they failed, they would still be in P2)

Also, the shape of the data when it comes to F1 is very very small. Neural networks in computer science needs thousands and thousands of cases of training data before they start making reliable predictions, most drivers are team mates for less than 3 seasons, which is around 60 races, which means circumstances have a huge impact. Yes, if there is a big margin in favour of one driver you can probably start to say that driver is faster than his team mate, but if you try to measure it to the tenth of a second then you are either a fool or you are just trying to prop up your argument by asserting a fact where there isn't one.
I agree completely.
Max has enormous potential and may already be the fastest in F1.
This is of course unproven and we may never actually know for sure.
Trying to pass off data, that is so far removed from a direct comparison between Verstappen and Hamilton, as some kind of proof that Verstappen is quicker, is quite honestly ridiculous.
Exactly. It just doesn't work like that. You can't talk your way into being the best. You have to prove it on the race track. You have to establish it in a concrete way, otherwise anyone can lay claim to being the best. I could say that George Russel is the best driver ever. After all, look at the margin that he's beating Kubica by. Kubica use to be teamed with Heidfeld and Heidfeld was teamed with....
Yeah a disabled Kubica who hasn't raced in F1 for 9 years is exactly the same driver he once was?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Jezza13 wrote:
Exediron wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:He's not even managed a pole position yet despite Ricciardo getting 3 during their years together, 2 last year.

Even Raikonnen managed a pole position during his time at Ferrari & of course Leclerc broke his duck in only his 9th race at the sharp end of the field in Austria.
Actually, Leclerc did it in his 2nd race at the sharp end of the field - in Bahrain.

While I do believe that Max is an absolutely top quality driver, it's hard to deny that there's a clear pattern of him choking on poles at this point. He's been in a car that looked pole capable on a number of occasions, and yet he has never managed to close it out. On three occasions, his teammate did: how do we know that Ricciardo wouldn't have taken another pole in Austria, for example? A lot of the time there seems to be some technical issue that just barely cost him pole, but when it happens so often, you have to wonder...
Yeah, forgot Bahrain.

The thing with Verstappen this year is the we have no-one available to get a good measure of his performance as Ghasly, for whatever reason, has been so abysmal.

How do we know exactly how good the RB is? I have a feeling Verstappens wringing it's neck but I also don't know if a Hamilton, Leclerc, Ricciardo or Vet......., uh, ok, maybe stop at Ricciardo, couldn't have done slightly better?

As for Verstappens issue with poles Exed, there's a hundred gags there, perhaps literally, but I shall respect forum decency not venture into that territory.
How Verstappen compares to Gasly actually has no relevance to the thread.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Option or Prime wrote:Out of interest how long would Verstappen have to go without winning a WDC before fans concluded that despite his speed he didn't have the 'x factor' to be a champion.
With Leclerc in position already in a top team wouldn't he be in pole position to take one when Hamilton retires? Alternatively is the RB/Honda package good enough to overtake Mercedes and Ferrari?
I guess that's were you start differentiating between fastest and best, it seems obvious to me that Senna was faster than Prost but still many will say that Prost was the better driver.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:Out of interest how long would Verstappen have to go without winning a WDC before fans concluded that despite his speed he didn't have the 'x factor' to be a champion.
With Leclerc in position already in a top team wouldn't he be in pole position to take one when Hamilton retires? Alternatively is the RB/Honda package good enough to overtake Mercedes and Ferrari?
I dont think that would make any difference if people saw him putting in great performances. Look at Moss. Look at Alonso, few would argue he doesn't have the 'x factor' and yet if the Renault had been a little slower in 05/06 he may never have won a championship.

Whether or not Max will go down as a great will be determined by his performances, his number of championsships will largely be determined by his machinery.
There is no excuse for Verstappen not being in the best car when he hear that he turned down Mercedes more than once, going forward once Hamilton retires I don't see what really stops him from maneuvering himself into a title contending car?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

pokerman wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:Out of interest how long would Verstappen have to go without winning a WDC before fans concluded that despite his speed he didn't have the 'x factor' to be a champion.
With Leclerc in position already in a top team wouldn't he be in pole position to take one when Hamilton retires? Alternatively is the RB/Honda package good enough to overtake Mercedes and Ferrari?
I dont think that would make any difference if people saw him putting in great performances. Look at Moss. Look at Alonso, few would argue he doesn't have the 'x factor' and yet if the Renault had been a little slower in 05/06 he may never have won a championship.

Whether or not Max will go down as a great will be determined by his performances, his number of championsships will largely be determined by his machinery.
There is no excuse for Verstappen not being in the best car when he hear that he turned down Mercedes more than once, going forward once Hamilton retires I don't see what really stops him from maneuvering himself into a title contending car?
I think its highly unlikely he wont end up in top machinery given the hype around him, but its not impossible with a little bad luck.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
FormulaFun wrote:Would like to know how Hamilton calculates compared to Bottas if you take bottas Vs massa, Massa vs alonso, Alonso Vs Hamilton

And then compare that to reality.

I really don't think this methodology of comparisons works when it's so dilluted down, particularly making leaps between pre and post 2014.

One driver alone who shows how much drivers have been affected by the rule changes and subsequent necessary changes to driving style is vettel. He alone has shown that it makes no sense to compare pre 2014 performance to post 2014 because the cars changed SO much
I believe the comparison suggests something close to the reality. IIRC, it's approximately:

Bottas > Massa by ~0.18
Alonso > Massa by ~0.28
Hamilton > Alonso by ~0.07

Suggesting Hamilton > Bottas ~0.17

Although it should be noted that I think pokerman's method is slightly flawed in using unmodified tenths instead of percentages, skewing the statistical significance towards the longer tracks. In general, it does give something close to the actual performance. I think it's accurate to about a tenth - it definitely suggests which driver is quicker if their comparison is outside that margin, but I do not believe it is accurate to a level of detail much past a tenth, certainly not past half a tenth.
The actual Hamilton/Bottas gap is 0.18s, I wouldn't consider being a tenth out as good correlation.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

FormulaFun wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
FormulaFun wrote:Would like to know how Hamilton calculates compared to Bottas if you take bottas Vs massa, Massa vs alonso, Alonso Vs Hamilton

And then compare that to reality.

I really don't think this methodology of comparisons works when it's so dilluted down, particularly making leaps between pre and post 2014.

One driver alone who shows how much drivers have been affected by the rule changes and subsequent necessary changes to driving style is vettel. He alone has shown that it makes no sense to compare pre 2014 performance to post 2014 because the cars changed SO much
And yet the best drivers from before 2014 were still the best drivers after 2014. The ones in the middle were still in the middle and the ones who weren't really up to it still weren't really up to it.
You're talking nonsensel, look at the details. Vettel is not on the same level he was, Hamilton has stepped up massively and that's helped by his main strength in his adaptability as a driver, different tyres in 2011 made tyre saving very important.

How can you say the best drivers were still the best and mid tier is still mid tier post 2014 when the whole field has basically changed? Alonso and Button retired after a couple years in bad cars, Webber retired before 2014 season so we can't really speak about them, we don't have a bench mark of Riccardo, Verstappen, Leclerc, Bottas, pre 2014, who are some of the current top drivers in top teams and pretty much the whole midfield is different now and was constantly changing pre 2014, more than it is now even.
I would say that a big difference for Vettel was having Ricciardo as a teammate instead of Webber, likewise presently he's no longer looking as supreme against Leclerc like he did against Kimi.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Black_Flag_11 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Black_Flag_11 wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:Out of interest how long would Verstappen have to go without winning a WDC before fans concluded that despite his speed he didn't have the 'x factor' to be a champion.
With Leclerc in position already in a top team wouldn't he be in pole position to take one when Hamilton retires? Alternatively is the RB/Honda package good enough to overtake Mercedes and Ferrari?
I dont think that would make any difference if people saw him putting in great performances. Look at Moss. Look at Alonso, few would argue he doesn't have the 'x factor' and yet if the Renault had been a little slower in 05/06 he may never have won a championship.

Whether or not Max will go down as a great will be determined by his performances, his number of championsships will largely be determined by his machinery.
There is no excuse for Verstappen not being in the best car when he hear that he turned down Mercedes more than once, going forward once Hamilton retires I don't see what really stops him from maneuvering himself into a title contending car?
I think its highly unlikely he wont end up in top machinery given the hype around him, but its not impossible with a little bad luck.
Unless he gains a reputation as being difficult to work with and needing the team to focus entirely on him, aka Alonso, it's hard not to see him in a WDC capable car.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: A lack of understanding? I find it amusing that you would choose to make a condescending comment about this when you and I have recently discussed your whole method of trying to come up with these answers in detail. You know full well that I know exactly how you do it. You also know that I have explained quite clearly why it is not a valid method and have also provided other examples where it doesn't work. Your response, at the time, was to provide anecdotal evidence of examples where it did work to a relatively close degree. My attempt to explain why that anecdotal evidence doesn't constitute a proof clearly fell on deaf ears.

The type of evidence that you claim supports the Hamilton/Verstappen hypothesis is the exact same kind you could use for Massa/Kimi or Rosberg/Schumacher. Rosberg had, in fact, been teamed up with Alex Wurz in 2007 and was usually quicker. Wurz was a teammate to Giancarlo Fiscichella in the 1998-2000 time-frame and was generally slower (I won't tally up their qualifying gaps - perhaps you already have?). Now Fisichella later went on to team with Massa at Sauber in 2004 and comfortably beat him. Massa went on to team up with Jaques Villeneuve in 2005 and then Schumacher in 2006. Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa both had a full season as Nick Heidfeld's teammate actually (both losing to him in the points). Raikkonen in 2001 and Massa in 2002. Even After that, Raikkonen teamed with Coulthard, who eventually teamed with Mark Webber, who spent a season teamed with Nico Rosberg, etc.

So you could easily connect the dots and try to come up with numbers to determine who would finish where between these drivers but there would be one problem. You'd be wasting your f*#@ing time!
Were did you miss such things as not using rookie data, also any such compilations I stopped making in the mid 2000s because the qualifying systems at the time were a lottery and rendered such things as useless, before that it was pre internet and I didn't give any thought to making cross driver comparisons, it's only recently when I started seeing some correlation that it perked my interest.

The condescending comment is because how can you blame any system for getting the Kimi/Massa and Schumacher/Rosberg predictions wrong when such systems were not being used to make those predictions in the first place?
Both Kimi and Massa were rookies when they faced Heidfeld so any rookie variable would be factored out there. If you make an effort to remove lottery aspects from your comparison then you must also exclude sessions where one driver has an upgrade but the other doesn't. You would also have to ensure that they were in the same window with their race engine. If one driver just got a new unit placed in his car while the other driver was on his 5th race, surely that session cannot count? You would also have to factor out their position on the race track and the timing of their lap (how late in the session and how much rubber was down). Did they get a slipstream? Was the track temperature the same? Did either of them make a mistake (you're measuring speed not the ability to avoid errors)? Etc.

You would also need to look at the variance of a given data set as well as the number of data points and determine whether or not you even have a statistically significant difference established (I'll spoil that one - you don't). If you want to use a scientifically oriented method then you have to observe the rules. I think it's arguable that looking at qualifying margins between teammates over the course of a few seasons can tell you which one is faster. The idea that it can produce an exact figure that is reliable is completely bogus however. You can't pick and choose when to apply scientific thinking. You either accept it or you reject it. Right now you are like the man who listens to meteorologists when they predict that it's going to rain today but ignores them when they discuss climate change.
A good explanation why you are opposed to such things but then again what we see is somewhat of an illusion because there a myriad of reasons why one driver is quicker than another driver which doesn't relate to the actual reality?

How can we even begin to know who are the fastest drivers when we give our opinion to who are the fastest drivers?
There is a vast selection of punctuation available to you when using the English language. Why is it that you end 90% of your sentences with this one? I'm not sure what you're even saying with the above part in bold.

Anyway, as I said before; I think it's relatively fair to look at two teammates over an extended period of time and assess which of them is quicker than the other based on their performances in qualifying and the races (assuming they have equal status). I also think that you can take a basic transitive step in saying that, if Verstappen is quicker than Ricciardo and Ricciardo is quicker than Hulkenberg; Verstappen is almost certainly going to be quicker than Hulkenberg too. That much I can go with. When you try to use the exact time margins in order to apply this to drivers who don't have any real connection between themselves or their teammates; you are going a step too far. The data loses its relevance for the reasons I have already stated and it works some of the time while not working at other times. That means it is not reliable. It's really that simple.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by FormulaFun »

It's definitely a theory that reeks of confirmation bias

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

FormulaFun wrote:It's definitely a theory that reeks of confirmation bias
So where doesn't it work?

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by KingVoid »

In order to believe that Hamilton is faster than Verstappen, you basically have to believe that Bottas is faster than Ricciardo and therefore Vettel.

The problem with that theory is that Bottas was barely any quicker than Massa (equal on race pace), whereas Vettel beat Raikkonen convincingly. It just doesn’t add up.

All evidence points to Verstappen being the quickest man in F1.

Again, you are free to deny this evidence if you want, just like Raikkonen fans would deny and make up excuses when someone did an Alonso-Massa cross comparison. That is of course until 2014 confirmed it.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

KingVoid wrote:In order to believe that Hamilton is faster than Verstappen, you basically have to believe that Bottas is faster than Ricciardo and therefore Vettel.

The problem with that theory is that Bottas was barely any quicker than Massa (equal on race pace), whereas Vettel beat Raikkonen convincingly. It just doesn’t add up.

All evidence points to Verstappen being the quickest man in F1.

Again, you are free to deny this evidence if you want, just like Raikkonen fans would deny and make up excuses when someone did an Alonso-Massa cross comparison. That is of course until 2014 confirmed it.
Pretty much nothing you've said here is accurate. There is no reason you would have to believe that Bottas is faster than Ricciardo in order to believe that Hamilton is faster than Verstappen. The Raikkonen point is also a total miss. Raikkonen had already lost to teammates like Massa, Heidfeld and Coulthard by 2014 and was routinely out-qualified by Massa. In what way is that situation between Raikkonen and Alonso analogous to the hypothetical situation between Hamilton and Verstappen? You claim that Vettel was much faster than Raikkonen but the gap between Vettel and Raikkonen was smaller than the gap between Alonso and Raikkonen. And Hamilton is quicker than Alonso. So your own thinking seems to be collapsing in on itself.

I noticed that you are no longer claiming that 2014 was a fluke and that Ricciardo is not really faster than Vettel. I suppose you have completely given up on trying to prop up Vettel and are now full-time propping up Max? For that, you'll need 2014 to be legit!

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by KingVoid »

sandman1347 wrote:Pretty much nothing you've said here is accurate. There is no reason you would have to believe that Bottas is faster than Ricciardo in order to believe that Hamilton is faster than Verstappen.
You kind of have to, given that Verstappen’s speed advantage over Ricciardo in 2017-18 was very similar to Hamilton’s speed advantage over Bottas.
You claim that Vettel was much faster than Raikkonen but the gap between Vettel and Raikkonen was smaller than the gap between Alonso and Raikkonen. And Hamilton is quicker than Alonso. So your own thinking seems to be collapsing in on itself.
My thinking is not the problem here, the problem is your interpretation. I never claimed that Vettel is faster than Alonso and Hamilton so that is not the problem here. My argument goes as follows:

Raikkonen = Massa
Bottas > Massa by a small margin
Vettel > Raikkonen by a big margin
Therefore Vettel > Bottas

If Vettel is better than Bottas, then Ricciardo is better than Bottas, and then the conclusion about Verstappen vs Hamilton follows logically.
I noticed that you are no longer claiming that 2014 was a fluke and that Ricciardo is not really faster than Vettel. I suppose you have completely given up on trying to prop up Vettel and are now full-time propping up Max? For that, you'll need 2014 to be legit!
Something eye-opening that has happened in 2019 is that Ricciardo is beating Hulkenberg by a convincing margin. I used to think that 2014 was a fluke because Verstappen had Ricciardo covered so easily on pace in 2018, so I just assumed that Ricciardo was overrated. However, as it turns out Verstappen is just that fast.

In fact, Ricciardo is beating Hulkenberg by at least the same margin as Hamilton has over Bottas, and is Bottas really much better than Hulkenberg?

Again, it doesn’t matter if you want to use Vettel or Hulkenberg as a cross reference, the conclusion is the same: Verstappen is the fastest driver.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

The difference between Hamilton in 2008 and Hamilton today is that the Hamilton of 2008 would drive as fast as he could all of the time. The Hamilton of today has learned when to use his speed and when not to. The consequence of that is a remarkable level of consistency in his performance. Hamilton only needs to have an edge on Bottas, and the result is 7 wins to 2 this season. Maybe his margin is just 0.2 seconds, maybe it .6 seconds. Maybe it's 10 second. It doesn't matter, it only needs to be what it is and all of the best drivers know this. You only have to look at what happened in the race in Monaco 1988 to see it, Senna was so consumed by wanting to prove he was faster than Prost that he threw away a certain victory. This is why you can't do algebra like this to try and calculate the fastest driver.

Max could very well be faster than Hamilton. That's not the issue, the issue is treating this "A is faster than B, B is faster than C, C is slightly slower than D, D beat E when they raced on rollerblades in 1998" chain like it's an exact science. Even the most carefully conducted science experiments conducted in controlled conditions with the most precise laboratory equipment has error bars - and this methodology is far from precise or controlled.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

KingVoid wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:Pretty much nothing you've said here is accurate. There is no reason you would have to believe that Bottas is faster than Ricciardo in order to believe that Hamilton is faster than Verstappen.
You kind of have to, given that Verstappen’s speed advantage over Ricciardo in 2017-18 was very similar to Hamilton’s speed advantage over Bottas.
You claim that Vettel was much faster than Raikkonen but the gap between Vettel and Raikkonen was smaller than the gap between Alonso and Raikkonen. And Hamilton is quicker than Alonso. So your own thinking seems to be collapsing in on itself.
My thinking is not the problem here, the problem is your interpretation. I never claimed that Vettel is faster than Alonso and Hamilton so that is not the problem here. My argument goes as follows:

Raikkonen = Massa
Bottas > Massa by a small margin
Vettel > Raikkonen by a big margin
Therefore Vettel > Bottas

If Vettel is better than Bottas, then Ricciardo is better than Bottas, and then the conclusion about Verstappen vs Hamilton follows logically.
I noticed that you are no longer claiming that 2014 was a fluke and that Ricciardo is not really faster than Vettel. I suppose you have completely given up on trying to prop up Vettel and are now full-time propping up Max? For that, you'll need 2014 to be legit!
Something eye-opening that has happened in 2019 is that Ricciardo is beating Hulkenberg by a convincing margin. I used to think that 2014 was a fluke because Verstappen had Ricciardo covered so easily on pace in 2018, so I just assumed that Ricciardo was overrated. However, as it turns out Verstappen is just that fast.

In fact, Ricciardo is beating Hulkenberg by at least the same margin as Hamilton has over Bottas, and is Bottas really much better than Hulkenberg?

Again, it doesn’t matter if you want to use Vettel or Hulkenberg as a cross reference, the conclusion is the same: Verstappen is the fastest driver.
You are making a massive amount of assumptions with your thinking and you are picking and choosing what to pay attention to based on your agenda. We are only looking at qualifying times and, if you do that, you would not say Massa=Raikkonen. You would say Massa>Raikkonen based on the three years that they were teammates and Massa dominated Kimi in qualifying. You would then say that Bottas>Massa based on the three years that they were teammates. Vettel was also faster than Raikkonen but (using your way of thinking) the gap between Vettel and Kimi was significantly smaller than the gap between Alonso and Kimi. With Hamilton having the edge over Alonso, you would have to (again, using your way of thinking) assume an even larger gap between Hamilton and Vettel than the gap between Alonso and Vettel. As you have now decided that (for your purposes) it is no longer prudent to challenge Ricciardo's performance against Vettel in 2014, you would also think that Ricciardo is quicker than Vettel and that Max is even quicker than him. So where in there do you figure Max has to be faster than Hamilton? Both men are faster than men who are faster than Vettel (again, by your way of thinking). As for Bottas, he is faster than someone who was faster than Kimi. As much though you put a lot of energy into bending over backwards to try to tear him down, Valteri is undoubtedly one of the best out there over a single lap.

You're trying to suggest that 2+2=5 and I'm not going for it. I can remember how vociferously you argued that 2014 was not an accurate representation of Daniel's pace against Vettel and you have withdrawn that argument simply because it doesn't suit your current agenda. Back then, your agenda was to claim that Vettel was the best driver on the grid. Sebastian has made that a lost cause with his performance in recent years but you have now moved full speed ahead with Max, ditched the argument against Daniel (in fact you now want to prop both him and Hulkenberg up as much as possible) and are trying to claim that you know that Max is the fastest driver out there.

Sorry buddy but it doesn't work like that. You say that Hulkenberg is just as fast as Bottas but what do you base that on? Seems like you just pulled that out of thin air and tried to pass it off. Your argument is flimsy. The strange part is that you could easily just say that you think Max is the fastest driver out there and no one would have a problem with that. It's when you attempt to claim that your opinion is factual that you lose reasonable people. We don't have any way of accurately knowing how a matchup between Lewis and Max would play out and that's the simple truth.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by KingVoid »

FYI, Massa outqualified Raikkonen 25-20 and the median between them when fuel adjusted was negligible (0.020s I believe). Anyway, no matter what way you look at it, Vettel was significantly more dominant against Raikkonen than Bottas was against Massa, which means that Vettel is better than Bottas (but everyone with common sense already knows that).

Hulkenberg is actually slightly faster than Button in qualifying using Perez as a cross reference. I believe that Perez outqualified Button 10-9 while Hulkenberg outqualified Perez 35-24. I think that it’s not unfair to rate Hulkenberg in the same ballpark as Bottas on one lap pace.

Ricciardo has at least 0.180s on both Vettel and Hulkenberg, which is extremely impressive in any case. Ricciardo was 0.170s down on Verstappen at Red Bull. This is the same margin Hamilton has over a lesser driver like Bottas. Slowly but surely you can begin to add the pieces in the puzzle together.

Again, I don’t expect you to accept this because it doesn’t suit your view.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Paolo_Lasardi »

Didn't Button outqualify Perez 10:9 ?

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Option or Prime »

KingVoid wrote: Vettel was significantly more dominant against Raikkonen than Bottas was against Massa, which means that Vettel is better than Bottas (but everyone with common sense already knows that).
This is where these comparisons are somewhat spurious in my view. Would you really say that Vettel is quicker than Bottas now! Assuming he doesn't spin out of course. They are only true at that particular time not indefinitely, drivers can be creatures of confidence, they also don't account for any bias within the team either.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Siao7 »

Option or Prime wrote:
KingVoid wrote: Vettel was significantly more dominant against Raikkonen than Bottas was against Massa, which means that Vettel is better than Bottas (but everyone with common sense already knows that).
This is where these comparisons are somewhat spurious in my view. Would you really say that Vettel is quicker than Bottas now! Assuming he doesn't spin out of course. They are only true at that particular time not indefinitely, drivers can be creatures of confidence, they also don't account for any bias within the team either.
For all his mistakes, Vettel is not slow though. He may as well be quicker than Bottas. But more error prone (obviously!), one doesn't exclude the other

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Option or Prime »

Yes, you're right , I chose badly as an example in an attempt to support my argument, speed and racing ability are not the same thing, the point I wanted to make was that there is too much emphasis on comparing drivers speed through team mate performance. I simply would prefer a more balanced comparison I guess.
The who is fastest thing just feels a bit like arguments we had at school, there is so much more to consider.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Johnson »

KingVoid wrote:In order to believe that Hamilton is faster than Verstappen, you basically have to believe that Bottas is faster than Ricciardo and therefore Vettel.

The problem with that theory is that Bottas was barely any quicker than Massa (equal on race pace), whereas Vettel beat Raikkonen convincingly. It just doesn’t add up.

All evidence points to Verstappen being the quickest man in F1.

Again, you are free to deny this evidence if you want, just like Raikkonen fans would deny and make up excuses when someone did an Alonso-Massa cross comparison. That is of course until 2014 confirmed it.
All evidence doesn’t. Rightly or wrongly, your ignore the Sainz years.

Also the Kimi comparison is a world apart. Alonso had just spent 4 years thrashing the same driver Kimi had spent 3 years being equal too. Verstappen needs to thrash (more so than Hamilton) Rosberg or Bottas for 3 seasons to make that the same as you are implying.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Siao7 »

Option or Prime wrote:Yes, you're right , I chose badly as an example in an attempt to support my argument, speed and racing ability are not the same thing, the point I wanted to make was that there is too much emphasis on comparing drivers speed through team mate performance. I simply would prefer a more balanced comparison I guess.
The who is fastest thing just feels a bit like arguments we had at school, there is so much more to consider.
Fair enough, I just thought I'd mention it as the guy get a lot of stick (most of it deserving), but he is not slow. His race pace is generally better than LeClerc's so far if I'm not mistaken

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Johnson wrote:
KingVoid wrote:In order to believe that Hamilton is faster than Verstappen, you basically have to believe that Bottas is faster than Ricciardo and therefore Vettel.

The problem with that theory is that Bottas was barely any quicker than Massa (equal on race pace), whereas Vettel beat Raikkonen convincingly. It just doesn’t add up.

All evidence points to Verstappen being the quickest man in F1.

Again, you are free to deny this evidence if you want, just like Raikkonen fans would deny and make up excuses when someone did an Alonso-Massa cross comparison. That is of course until 2014 confirmed it.
All evidence doesn’t. Rightly or wrongly, your ignore the Sainz years.

Also the Kimi comparison is a world apart. Alonso had just spent 4 years thrashing the same driver Kimi had spent 3 years being equal too. Verstappen needs to thrash (more so than Hamilton) Rosberg or Bottas for 3 seasons to make that the same as you are implying.
I think it's been said many times on this thread that you need to ignore rookie seasons. They are very often not representative.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by FormulaFun »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
KingVoid wrote:In order to believe that Hamilton is faster than Verstappen, you basically have to believe that Bottas is faster than Ricciardo and therefore Vettel.

The problem with that theory is that Bottas was barely any quicker than Massa (equal on race pace), whereas Vettel beat Raikkonen convincingly. It just doesn’t add up.

All evidence points to Verstappen being the quickest man in F1.

Again, you are free to deny this evidence if you want, just like Raikkonen fans would deny and make up excuses when someone did an Alonso-Massa cross comparison. That is of course until 2014 confirmed it.
All evidence doesn’t. Rightly or wrongly, your ignore the Sainz years.

Also the Kimi comparison is a world apart. Alonso had just spent 4 years thrashing the same driver Kimi had spent 3 years being equal too. Verstappen needs to thrash (more so than Hamilton) Rosberg or Bottas for 3 seasons to make that the same as you are implying.
I think it's been said many times on this thread that you need to ignore rookie seasons. They are very often not representative.
But you do fuel adjustments for Massa vs Kimi, that's a lot more spurious than a rookie v rookie season

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

FormulaFun wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
KingVoid wrote:In order to believe that Hamilton is faster than Verstappen, you basically have to believe that Bottas is faster than Ricciardo and therefore Vettel.

The problem with that theory is that Bottas was barely any quicker than Massa (equal on race pace), whereas Vettel beat Raikkonen convincingly. It just doesn’t add up.

All evidence points to Verstappen being the quickest man in F1.

Again, you are free to deny this evidence if you want, just like Raikkonen fans would deny and make up excuses when someone did an Alonso-Massa cross comparison. That is of course until 2014 confirmed it.
All evidence doesn’t. Rightly or wrongly, your ignore the Sainz years.

Also the Kimi comparison is a world apart. Alonso had just spent 4 years thrashing the same driver Kimi had spent 3 years being equal too. Verstappen needs to thrash (more so than Hamilton) Rosberg or Bottas for 3 seasons to make that the same as you are implying.
I think it's been said many times on this thread that you need to ignore rookie seasons. They are very often not representative.
But you do fuel adjustments for Massa vs Kimi, that's a lot more spurious than a rookie v rookie season
Sorry. I don't understand?

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Johnson »

Indeed it has been said many times that rookie seasons can be ignored, but I do see Hamilton vs Alonsos year being used quite a lot.

Also, 2016 was not Max's rookie year and he was less than 0.1 ahead of Sainz in those 4 qualifying sessions.

I am not saying that this means anything but its a bit rich claiming "all evidence" when there is evidence that you have discounted that goes against your statements.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by FormulaFun »

mikeyg123 wrote:
FormulaFun wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Johnson wrote:
KingVoid wrote:In order to believe that Hamilton is faster than Verstappen, you basically have to believe that Bottas is faster than Ricciardo and therefore Vettel.

The problem with that theory is that Bottas was barely any quicker than Massa (equal on race pace), whereas Vettel beat Raikkonen convincingly. It just doesn’t add up.

All evidence points to Verstappen being the quickest man in F1.

Again, you are free to deny this evidence if you want, just like Raikkonen fans would deny and make up excuses when someone did an Alonso-Massa cross comparison. That is of course until 2014 confirmed it.
All evidence doesn’t. Rightly or wrongly, your ignore the Sainz years.

Also the Kimi comparison is a world apart. Alonso had just spent 4 years thrashing the same driver Kimi had spent 3 years being equal too. Verstappen needs to thrash (more so than Hamilton) Rosberg or Bottas for 3 seasons to make that the same as you are implying.
I think it's been said many times on this thread that you need to ignore rookie seasons. They are very often not representative.
But you do fuel adjustments for Massa vs Kimi, that's a lot more spurious than a rookie v rookie season
Sorry. I don't understand?
I don't understand what you don't understand

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: A lack of understanding? I find it amusing that you would choose to make a condescending comment about this when you and I have recently discussed your whole method of trying to come up with these answers in detail. You know full well that I know exactly how you do it. You also know that I have explained quite clearly why it is not a valid method and have also provided other examples where it doesn't work. Your response, at the time, was to provide anecdotal evidence of examples where it did work to a relatively close degree. My attempt to explain why that anecdotal evidence doesn't constitute a proof clearly fell on deaf ears.

The type of evidence that you claim supports the Hamilton/Verstappen hypothesis is the exact same kind you could use for Massa/Kimi or Rosberg/Schumacher. Rosberg had, in fact, been teamed up with Alex Wurz in 2007 and was usually quicker. Wurz was a teammate to Giancarlo Fiscichella in the 1998-2000 time-frame and was generally slower (I won't tally up their qualifying gaps - perhaps you already have?). Now Fisichella later went on to team with Massa at Sauber in 2004 and comfortably beat him. Massa went on to team up with Jaques Villeneuve in 2005 and then Schumacher in 2006. Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa both had a full season as Nick Heidfeld's teammate actually (both losing to him in the points). Raikkonen in 2001 and Massa in 2002. Even After that, Raikkonen teamed with Coulthard, who eventually teamed with Mark Webber, who spent a season teamed with Nico Rosberg, etc.

So you could easily connect the dots and try to come up with numbers to determine who would finish where between these drivers but there would be one problem. You'd be wasting your f*#@ing time!
Were did you miss such things as not using rookie data, also any such compilations I stopped making in the mid 2000s because the qualifying systems at the time were a lottery and rendered such things as useless, before that it was pre internet and I didn't give any thought to making cross driver comparisons, it's only recently when I started seeing some correlation that it perked my interest.

The condescending comment is because how can you blame any system for getting the Kimi/Massa and Schumacher/Rosberg predictions wrong when such systems were not being used to make those predictions in the first place?
Both Kimi and Massa were rookies when they faced Heidfeld so any rookie variable would be factored out there. If you make an effort to remove lottery aspects from your comparison then you must also exclude sessions where one driver has an upgrade but the other doesn't. You would also have to ensure that they were in the same window with their race engine. If one driver just got a new unit placed in his car while the other driver was on his 5th race, surely that session cannot count? You would also have to factor out their position on the race track and the timing of their lap (how late in the session and how much rubber was down). Did they get a slipstream? Was the track temperature the same? Did either of them make a mistake (you're measuring speed not the ability to avoid errors)? Etc.

You would also need to look at the variance of a given data set as well as the number of data points and determine whether or not you even have a statistically significant difference established (I'll spoil that one - you don't). If you want to use a scientifically oriented method then you have to observe the rules. I think it's arguable that looking at qualifying margins between teammates over the course of a few seasons can tell you which one is faster. The idea that it can produce an exact figure that is reliable is completely bogus however. You can't pick and choose when to apply scientific thinking. You either accept it or you reject it. Right now you are like the man who listens to meteorologists when they predict that it's going to rain today but ignores them when they discuss climate change.
A good explanation why you are opposed to such things but then again what we see is somewhat of an illusion because there a myriad of reasons why one driver is quicker than another driver which doesn't relate to the actual reality?

How can we even begin to know who are the fastest drivers when we give our opinion to who are the fastest drivers?
There is a vast selection of punctuation available to you when using the English language. Why is it that you end 90% of your sentences with this one? I'm not sure what you're even saying with the above part in bold.

Anyway, as I said before; I think it's relatively fair to look at two teammates over an extended period of time and assess which of them is quicker than the other based on their performances in qualifying and the races (assuming they have equal status). I also think that you can take a basic transitive step in saying that, if Verstappen is quicker than Ricciardo and Ricciardo is quicker than Hulkenberg; Verstappen is almost certainly going to be quicker than Hulkenberg too. That much I can go with. When you try to use the exact time margins in order to apply this to drivers who don't have any real connection between themselves or their teammates; you are going a step too far. The data loses its relevance for the reasons I have already stated and it works some of the time while not working at other times. That means it is not reliable. It's really that simple.
Each to his own I think, some can be so sure about their opinions about who are the fastest/best drivers, I for one like to have something a little bit more solid than that.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

FormulaFun wrote:It's definitely a theory that reeks of confirmation bias
Apart from the fact of me being a massive Hamilton fan?

People who are serious about such things use such constructs to try and remove bias, you think this is more biased than people's personal opinions?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:In order to believe that Hamilton is faster than Verstappen, you basically have to believe that Bottas is faster than Ricciardo and therefore Vettel.

The problem with that theory is that Bottas was barely any quicker than Massa (equal on race pace), whereas Vettel beat Raikkonen convincingly. It just doesn’t add up.

All evidence points to Verstappen being the quickest man in F1.

Again, you are free to deny this evidence if you want, just like Raikkonen fans would deny and make up excuses when someone did an Alonso-Massa cross comparison. That is of course until 2014 confirmed it.
Increasingly you are moving away from qualifying data to introduce your own personal opinion and bias into this, now you are bringing Bottas' race pace into the discussion.

This has no relation to your belief of Verstappen being the quickest man in F1.
Lewis Hamilton #44

World Drivers Titles: 7 (1st)
Grand Prix Wins: 94 (1st)
Pole Positions: 97 (1st)
Podiums: 163 (1st)


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