How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

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pokerman
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Siao7 wrote:
Johnson wrote:Its an excellent guide, of course it can be -/+ 0.150 or so but for a lot fo comparisons that doesn't make too much of a difference.

It is especially true when so many metrics "prove" something and there aren't any counter metrics against it.

Hamilton > Massa can be proven using so many metrics.
There is no metric you can use to suggest Hamilton = Massa or Massa > Hamilton

You can use cross references between Alonso-Massa and Bottas-Massa as well as Fisichella-Alonso and Massa-Alonso. As well as Massa-Schumacher and Massa-Raikkonen to show that Massa never was a top driver. You can even extend metrics to Heidfeld-Raikkonen and Massa-Raikkonen.

In the dry races in 2008, Massa beat Hamilton 8-3 when both finished and one of those Hamilton wins includes Singapore that Massa would have won without Piquets crashgate. Without bad luck the figure would have been something like 10-4 in Massa's favour. Luckily for Hamilton, he is the best wet weather driver of his generation and Massa is one of the worst drivers in a top seat in the wet in living memory. But, people to this day still claim the Mclaren to be the better car or the cars equal.
Hamilton Massa though never raced in the same car. 2007 and 2008 the Ferrari was arguably the better car.
Indeed the same people that believe that are invariable the same people that don't believe in cross driver comparisons yet are able to distinguish what are the best cars based on....?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote: If you remove a drivers rookie season and final season it's almost always true. There a couple of exceptions but I would say it's true at least 80-90 percent of the time.
That's why I included the "necessarily" part in that sentence. It work most times, but then again not always. In fairness I can't think of many such comparisons straight out of my head
Neither can I off hand but there must be some :lol:
To throw more oil into the fire, I also find that A>B one year doesn't mean that the same will be the case for the next year, it can be that B>A. It is not a set, constant value. This is why F1 is so difficult to predict. You also see drivers losing to others in junior formulae and then when both graduate in F1 the roles are reversed, with the second driver being nowhere
Sure there is an ebb and flow. The more seasons drivers are team mates the more accurately a comparison can be made.
Yeah 1 year comparisons are never ideal.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Johnson wrote:Not meaning to sound rude, of course Hamilton and Massa never raced in the same car, that's the sole point of making those kind of metrics to work out who is quicker out of drivers that never shared the same car...

Felipe Massa = Fernando Alonso in 2007. Massa just had worse luck and reliability so it ended 109-94, which was still very close.

It was arguable at the time that the 2007/08 Mclarens were quite equal. Now I think it is very clear which was the better cars and which drivers were the more talented. We even got the luxury of seeing Alonso paired with each of those two drivers.
Yet to this day there are those that are adamant that the McLaren was the best car in 2007 because Alonso said it was, but with that I'm not sure that Alonso was merely looking to criticise McLaren for not winning anything?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Siao7 wrote:
Johnson wrote:Not meaning to sound rude, of course Hamilton and Massa never raced in the same car, that's the sole point of making those kind of metrics to work out who is quicker out of drivers that never shared the same car...

Felipe Massa = Fernando Alonso in 2007. Massa just had worse luck and reliability so it ended 109-94, which was still very close.

It was arguable at the time that the 2007/08 Mclarens were quite equal. Now I think it is very clear which was the better cars and which drivers were the more talented. We even got the luxury of seeing Alonso paired with each of those two drivers.
You are not rude, I should have been more specific. I wrote this with your last paragraph in mind, where you compared the dry races that both of them finished in 2008. It kind of threw me off!
Yes it wasn't clear on what it intended to say.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Junglist wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Junglist wrote: boxer can get caught by a lucky punch or can carry an injury into a fight, plus a fight is a one off event whereas qualifying happens 21 times a year, not exactly the same analogy?
I'm more speaking about the theory that just because someone beat a mutual opponent, doesn't mean it's a given they'll beat the other driver in the comparison.

Granted there are 20 data points over a year to take from but races don't happen in a vacuum they're still effected by other variables which makes it a hard comparison to make. If every single race had the same, for lack of a better word, settings, then the comparisons might mean something but across teams it just doesn't work for me.

Not saying people shouldn't try and do it, I just don't think it's very reliable. There's just way too much data that we don't have access to to make a proper claim that A is faster than B and C
For my part I use it as a tool to try and make sense of the pecking order and I have to say it's stood me in good stead, I guess everyone has their own way of evaluating things, I guess it's a 50/50 split between people who try to use a mathematical/scientific approach and people who like to go with their gut feeling, and for someone like me with a fascination with numbers it's something I'm more comfortable with.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
But plenty of ways to estimate. Which was what was asked.
Indeed like we could estimate things like Alonso beating Kimi and Hamilton beating Bottas.
Alonso beating Kimi is not an estimate, it actually happened just as Hamilton beating Bottas has actually happened. Hamilton vs Verstappen is just make believe because it hasn't happened.

I won't go into explaining to you again why tallying the average time gap in qualifying between two drivers and then cross comparing across multiple seasons and teammates is a completely unreliable means to generate an outcome. If you choose to remain obstinate about that, that's your prerogative. The fact is that there is no actual data to use to compare Hamilton to Verstappen directly in equal machinery. Without that, any estimate you come up with is simply made up. They never raced each other nor have they had any teammates in common. In fact, none of their teammates have had any teammates in common. So the connections that you are trying to make are so flimsy that you would be foolish to assign significance to them.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Siao7 »

sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
But plenty of ways to estimate. Which was what was asked.
Indeed like we could estimate things like Alonso beating Kimi and Hamilton beating Bottas.
Alonso beating Kimi is not an estimate, it actually happened just as Hamilton beating Bottas has actually happened. Hamilton vs Verstappen is just make believe because it hasn't happened.

I won't go into explaining to you again why tallying the average time gap in qualifying between two drivers and then cross comparing across multiple seasons and teammates is a completely unreliable means to generate an outcome. If you choose to remain obstinate about that, that's your prerogative. The fact is that there is no actual data to use to compare Hamilton to Verstappen directly in equal machinery. Without that, any estimate you come up with is simply made up. They never raced each other nor have they had any teammates in common. In fact, none of their teammates have had any teammates in common. So the connections that you are trying to make are so flimsy that you would be foolish to assign significance to them.
I think Poker meant that we could estimate Alonso-Kimi and Hamilton-Bottas beforehand

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

Siao7 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
But plenty of ways to estimate. Which was what was asked.
Indeed like we could estimate things like Alonso beating Kimi and Hamilton beating Bottas.
Alonso beating Kimi is not an estimate, it actually happened just as Hamilton beating Bottas has actually happened. Hamilton vs Verstappen is just make believe because it hasn't happened.

I won't go into explaining to you again why tallying the average time gap in qualifying between two drivers and then cross comparing across multiple seasons and teammates is a completely unreliable means to generate an outcome. If you choose to remain obstinate about that, that's your prerogative. The fact is that there is no actual data to use to compare Hamilton to Verstappen directly in equal machinery. Without that, any estimate you come up with is simply made up. They never raced each other nor have they had any teammates in common. In fact, none of their teammates have had any teammates in common. So the connections that you are trying to make are so flimsy that you would be foolish to assign significance to them.
I think Poker meant that we could estimate Alonso-Kimi and Hamilton-Bottas beforehand
But not Massa-Kimi nor Rosberg-Schumacher. It works sometimes but not other times. It's not a completely random thought process so it's bound to hit close to the mark at least some of the time but it is NOT reliably accurate.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by KingVoid »

pokerman wrote:
KingVoid wrote:Verstappen’s race pace since the beginning of 2017 was a clear step above Ricciardo. Ricciardo beat Vettel as teammates and is certainly not a slower driver than Button or Rosberg on Sunday (IMO).

Personally, I’m not buying the claim that Lewis has better race pace. Max’s race pace and tyre management is monstrous.

Again, this is mostly guesswork and cross comparisons. I judge Verstappen on how easily he handled Ricciardo, and I judge Ricciardo by how he handled Vettel and is controlling Hulkenberg at the moment.
Race pace is something that is much harder to measure, in respect to Hamilton he's always beat his teammates over the course in qualifying but even more so in race pace.

With the most poles in F1 history this would point to Hamilton staking a claim to be the best qualifier in F1 in respect to being a qualifying expert but I actually don't think that's the strongest part of his game, he gets beat more often than he really should.
In 2018, there was not a single race where Ricciardo was quicker than Verstappen on pure pace apart from maybe Baku which was a slipstream fest.

Bottas had Hamilton beat on race pace at least in China and Canada.

We know based on the Massa/Bottas cross comparison that Bottas’ race pace is nothing special (he was 23-23 against Massa in a two car finish). We know based on the Vettel and Hulkenberg cross comparisons that Ricciardo’s race pace definitely is great and maybe even special.

Verstappen is as monstrous over 305 kilometers as he is over one lap.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Siao7 »

sandman1347 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
But plenty of ways to estimate. Which was what was asked.
Indeed like we could estimate things like Alonso beating Kimi and Hamilton beating Bottas.
Alonso beating Kimi is not an estimate, it actually happened just as Hamilton beating Bottas has actually happened. Hamilton vs Verstappen is just make believe because it hasn't happened.

I won't go into explaining to you again why tallying the average time gap in qualifying between two drivers and then cross comparing across multiple seasons and teammates is a completely unreliable means to generate an outcome. If you choose to remain obstinate about that, that's your prerogative. The fact is that there is no actual data to use to compare Hamilton to Verstappen directly in equal machinery. Without that, any estimate you come up with is simply made up. They never raced each other nor have they had any teammates in common. In fact, none of their teammates have had any teammates in common. So the connections that you are trying to make are so flimsy that you would be foolish to assign significance to them.
I think Poker meant that we could estimate Alonso-Kimi and Hamilton-Bottas beforehand
But not Massa-Kimi nor Rosberg-Schumacher. It works sometimes but not other times. It's not a completely random thought process so it's bound to hit close to the mark at least some of the time but it is NOT reliably accurate.
That's true. I would say that this would probably work for the creme de la creme of the drivers. Still, the Schumie-Rosberg I would be sceptical to estimate at the time, as Schumacher came back to the sport with many caveats. Massa and Kimi is interesting, but I never thought Kimi was on par with Schumacher-Hamilton anyway. In all honesty I can't remember what I predicted back then for these pairings

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

KingVoid wrote:
pokerman wrote:
KingVoid wrote:Verstappen’s race pace since the beginning of 2017 was a clear step above Ricciardo. Ricciardo beat Vettel as teammates and is certainly not a slower driver than Button or Rosberg on Sunday (IMO).

Personally, I’m not buying the claim that Lewis has better race pace. Max’s race pace and tyre management is monstrous.

Again, this is mostly guesswork and cross comparisons. I judge Verstappen on how easily he handled Ricciardo, and I judge Ricciardo by how he handled Vettel and is controlling Hulkenberg at the moment.
Race pace is something that is much harder to measure, in respect to Hamilton he's always beat his teammates over the course in qualifying but even more so in race pace.

With the most poles in F1 history this would point to Hamilton staking a claim to be the best qualifier in F1 in respect to being a qualifying expert but I actually don't think that's the strongest part of his game, he gets beat more often than he really should.
In 2018, there was not a single race where Ricciardo was quicker than Verstappen on pure pace apart from maybe Baku which was a slipstream fest.

Bottas had Hamilton beat on race pace at least in China and Canada.

We know based on the Massa/Bottas cross comparison that Bottas’ race pace is nothing special (he was 23-23 against Massa in a two car finish). We know based on the Vettel and Hulkenberg cross comparisons that Ricciardo’s race pace definitely is great and maybe even special.

Verstappen is as monstrous over 305 kilometers as he is over one lap.
No he did not. Bottas did not have better race pace than Hamilton in either of those races. There has not been a single race in which Hamilton didn't have damage to his car where Bottas had better race pace throughout their 2+ seasons as teammates. That's not entirely true actually. I'd say that Russia 2017 could be considered a win for Bottas in that area but really Hamilton was held back in that race by overheating issues.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by DOLOMITE »

Interesting question. I'd like to say "as quick or quicker". One thing stands out: still no Poles for Max - although I'm sure it's only a matter of time. Over a lap there's probably nothing in it, but in different cars, different circuits, over a race, over a season.. it's for Hamilton. For now...
"I'd rather lose a race going fast enough to win it, than win one going slow enough to lose it".
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by KingVoid »

How the hell was Bottas not faster than Hamilton at China 2018?

They were both on the same strategy. Bottas was beating Vettel and leading before the safety car while Hamilton was getting beat by Verstappen in an inferior Red Bull. After the SC, Bottas pulled an 8 second gap on Hamilton on equal tyres. Bottas held Raikkonen and Verstappen behind him. Hamilton got passed by both.

You have to be absolutely deluded to deny that Bottas was faster at China 2018.

Bottas was faster than Hamilton at Russia 2017, China 2018 and Canada 2018.
Ricciardo was faster than Verstappen at Abu Dhabi 2017. That’s it as far as 2017/18 is concerned.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by kleefton »

KingVoid wrote:
pokerman wrote:
KingVoid wrote:Verstappen’s race pace since the beginning of 2017 was a clear step above Ricciardo. Ricciardo beat Vettel as teammates and is certainly not a slower driver than Button or Rosberg on Sunday (IMO).

Personally, I’m not buying the claim that Lewis has better race pace. Max’s race pace and tyre management is monstrous.

Again, this is mostly guesswork and cross comparisons. I judge Verstappen on how easily he handled Ricciardo, and I judge Ricciardo by how he handled Vettel and is controlling Hulkenberg at the moment.
Race pace is something that is much harder to measure, in respect to Hamilton he's always beat his teammates over the course in qualifying but even more so in race pace.

With the most poles in F1 history this would point to Hamilton staking a claim to be the best qualifier in F1 in respect to being a qualifying expert but I actually don't think that's the strongest part of his game, he gets beat more often than he really should.
In 2018, there was not a single race where Ricciardo was quicker than Verstappen on pure pace apart from maybe Baku which was a slipstream fest.

Bottas had Hamilton beat on race pace at least in China and Canada.

We know based on the Massa/Bottas cross comparison that Bottas’ race pace is nothing special (he was 23-23 against Massa in a two car finish). We know based on the Vettel and Hulkenberg cross comparisons that Ricciardo’s race pace definitely is great and maybe even special.

Verstappen is as monstrous over 305 kilometers as he is over one lap.
Come on. Ricc spent much of his race on Verstappen's gear box, passed him, pulled away a bit, pitted and got overcut due to the way the tires behaved on that day, but then was attacking Verstappen again until they crashed. He was faster and it wasn't due to just slipstream.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

KingVoid wrote:How the hell was Bottas not faster than Hamilton at China 2018?

They were both on the same strategy. Bottas was beating Vettel and leading before the safety car while Hamilton was getting beat by Verstappen in an inferior Red Bull. After the SC, Bottas pulled an 8 second gap on Hamilton on equal tyres. Bottas held Raikkonen and Verstappen behind him. Hamilton got passed by both.

You have to be absolutely deluded to deny that Bottas was faster at China 2018.

Bottas was faster than Hamilton at Russia 2017, China 2018 and Canada 2018.
Ricciardo was faster than Verstappen at Abu Dhabi 2017. That’s it as far as 2017/18 is concerned.
The way you wrote that post made it look like you were talking about China of this season. I didn't know you were talking about 2018. I think it's fair to give Bottas China in 2018 and I think Canada from that year is close enough that you can choose to give him that one if you want.

What you said about Max and Daniel isn't true though. Daniel was faster than Max in Italy 2017, Abu Dhabi 2017, Baku 2018, Monaco 2018 (prior to the mechanical failure), Australia 2018 and possibly others. I'm just going from memory here but your claim that Max was always quicker than Daniel in the races is bogus. That's not to even mention the fact that lot of the 2017-18 races, you cannot even determine who was quicker because one of them had a mechanical failure far too early in the race to make any meaningful assessment.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Johnson »

KingVoid wrote:How the hell was Bottas not faster than Hamilton at China 2018?

They were both on the same strategy. Bottas was beating Vettel and leading before the safety car while Hamilton was getting beat by Verstappen in an inferior Red Bull. After the SC, Bottas pulled an 8 second gap on Hamilton on equal tyres. Bottas held Raikkonen and Verstappen behind him. Hamilton got passed by both.

You have to be absolutely deluded to deny that Bottas was faster at China 2018.

Bottas was faster than Hamilton at Russia 2017, China 2018 and Canada 2018.
Ricciardo was faster than Verstappen at Abu Dhabi 2017. That’s it as far as 2017/18 is concerned.
Bottas wasn't quicker in China, well not conclusively. Hamilton just got jumped by Verstappen at the start and stuck behind him for the entire first and second stints. Hamilton was in traffic all race.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Siao7 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
But plenty of ways to estimate. Which was what was asked.
Indeed like we could estimate things like Alonso beating Kimi and Hamilton beating Bottas.
Alonso beating Kimi is not an estimate, it actually happened just as Hamilton beating Bottas has actually happened. Hamilton vs Verstappen is just make believe because it hasn't happened.

I won't go into explaining to you again why tallying the average time gap in qualifying between two drivers and then cross comparing across multiple seasons and teammates is a completely unreliable means to generate an outcome. If you choose to remain obstinate about that, that's your prerogative. The fact is that there is no actual data to use to compare Hamilton to Verstappen directly in equal machinery. Without that, any estimate you come up with is simply made up. They never raced each other nor have they had any teammates in common. In fact, none of their teammates have had any teammates in common. So the connections that you are trying to make are so flimsy that you would be foolish to assign significance to them.
I think Poker meant that we could estimate Alonso-Kimi and Hamilton-Bottas beforehand
Yes indeed cheers. :thumbup:
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

sandman1347 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
But plenty of ways to estimate. Which was what was asked.
Indeed like we could estimate things like Alonso beating Kimi and Hamilton beating Bottas.
Alonso beating Kimi is not an estimate, it actually happened just as Hamilton beating Bottas has actually happened. Hamilton vs Verstappen is just make believe because it hasn't happened.

I won't go into explaining to you again why tallying the average time gap in qualifying between two drivers and then cross comparing across multiple seasons and teammates is a completely unreliable means to generate an outcome. If you choose to remain obstinate about that, that's your prerogative. The fact is that there is no actual data to use to compare Hamilton to Verstappen directly in equal machinery. Without that, any estimate you come up with is simply made up. They never raced each other nor have they had any teammates in common. In fact, none of their teammates have had any teammates in common. So the connections that you are trying to make are so flimsy that you would be foolish to assign significance to them.
I think Poker meant that we could estimate Alonso-Kimi and Hamilton-Bottas beforehand
But not Massa-Kimi nor Rosberg-Schumacher. It works sometimes but not other times. It's not a completely random thought process so it's bound to hit close to the mark at least some of the time but it is NOT reliably accurate.
There wasn't the data to make those kind of predictions although it was thought that Kimi would beat Massa and Schumacher would beat Rosberg, but I would say that was based on personal opinion/gut feeling?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:
pokerman wrote:
KingVoid wrote:Verstappen’s race pace since the beginning of 2017 was a clear step above Ricciardo. Ricciardo beat Vettel as teammates and is certainly not a slower driver than Button or Rosberg on Sunday (IMO).

Personally, I’m not buying the claim that Lewis has better race pace. Max’s race pace and tyre management is monstrous.

Again, this is mostly guesswork and cross comparisons. I judge Verstappen on how easily he handled Ricciardo, and I judge Ricciardo by how he handled Vettel and is controlling Hulkenberg at the moment.
Race pace is something that is much harder to measure, in respect to Hamilton he's always beat his teammates over the course in qualifying but even more so in race pace.

With the most poles in F1 history this would point to Hamilton staking a claim to be the best qualifier in F1 in respect to being a qualifying expert but I actually don't think that's the strongest part of his game, he gets beat more often than he really should.
In 2018, there was not a single race where Ricciardo was quicker than Verstappen on pure pace apart from maybe Baku which was a slipstream fest.

Bottas had Hamilton beat on race pace at least in China and Canada.

We know based on the Massa/Bottas cross comparison that Bottas’ race pace is nothing special (he was 23-23 against Massa in a two car finish). We know based on the Vettel and Hulkenberg cross comparisons that Ricciardo’s race pace definitely is great and maybe even special.

Verstappen is as monstrous over 305 kilometers as he is over one lap.
That actually can't really be measured and I'm sure in some races Ricciardo has been no quicker than the Hulk, also were was I making a case for Hamilton having quicker race pace than Verstappen?

Also are you sure Bottas was quicker in the races in China and Canada, I'm sure Hamilton had overheating problems in Canada and his engine kept going into safe mode, also did he not have a problem in China, I can't remember?

Anyway it seems like you are moving away from any scientific backed up facts and onto personal opinion when looking to compare drivers?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Siao7 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote: Indeed like we could estimate things like Alonso beating Kimi and Hamilton beating Bottas.
Alonso beating Kimi is not an estimate, it actually happened just as Hamilton beating Bottas has actually happened. Hamilton vs Verstappen is just make believe because it hasn't happened.

I won't go into explaining to you again why tallying the average time gap in qualifying between two drivers and then cross comparing across multiple seasons and teammates is a completely unreliable means to generate an outcome. If you choose to remain obstinate about that, that's your prerogative. The fact is that there is no actual data to use to compare Hamilton to Verstappen directly in equal machinery. Without that, any estimate you come up with is simply made up. They never raced each other nor have they had any teammates in common. In fact, none of their teammates have had any teammates in common. So the connections that you are trying to make are so flimsy that you would be foolish to assign significance to them.
I think Poker meant that we could estimate Alonso-Kimi and Hamilton-Bottas beforehand
But not Massa-Kimi nor Rosberg-Schumacher. It works sometimes but not other times. It's not a completely random thought process so it's bound to hit close to the mark at least some of the time but it is NOT reliably accurate.
That's true. I would say that this would probably work for the creme de la creme of the drivers. Still, the Schumie-Rosberg I would be sceptical to estimate at the time, as Schumacher came back to the sport with many caveats. Massa and Kimi is interesting, but I never thought Kimi was on par with Schumacher-Hamilton anyway. In all honesty I can't remember what I predicted back then for these pairings
I remember that Kimi was expected to be 3-5 tenths quicker than Massa mainly because Schumacher was 5 tenths quicker than Massa and then Schumacher was expected to destroy Rosberg because that's what he always does to teammates.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: Alonso beating Kimi is not an estimate, it actually happened just as Hamilton beating Bottas has actually happened. Hamilton vs Verstappen is just make believe because it hasn't happened.

I won't go into explaining to you again why tallying the average time gap in qualifying between two drivers and then cross comparing across multiple seasons and teammates is a completely unreliable means to generate an outcome. If you choose to remain obstinate about that, that's your prerogative. The fact is that there is no actual data to use to compare Hamilton to Verstappen directly in equal machinery. Without that, any estimate you come up with is simply made up. They never raced each other nor have they had any teammates in common. In fact, none of their teammates have had any teammates in common. So the connections that you are trying to make are so flimsy that you would be foolish to assign significance to them.
I think Poker meant that we could estimate Alonso-Kimi and Hamilton-Bottas beforehand
But not Massa-Kimi nor Rosberg-Schumacher. It works sometimes but not other times. It's not a completely random thought process so it's bound to hit close to the mark at least some of the time but it is NOT reliably accurate.
There wasn't the data to make those kind of predictions although it was thought that Kimi would beat Massa and Schumacher would beat Rosberg, but I would say that was based on personal opinion/gut feeling?
There isn't data to make predictions about Hamilton and Verstappen either. They have never raced against each other as teammates. They do not have any teammates in common and their teammates do not have any teammates in common. The way that you are attempting to connect them is completely bogus.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Siao7 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: Alonso beating Kimi is not an estimate, it actually happened just as Hamilton beating Bottas has actually happened. Hamilton vs Verstappen is just make believe because it hasn't happened.

I won't go into explaining to you again why tallying the average time gap in qualifying between two drivers and then cross comparing across multiple seasons and teammates is a completely unreliable means to generate an outcome. If you choose to remain obstinate about that, that's your prerogative. The fact is that there is no actual data to use to compare Hamilton to Verstappen directly in equal machinery. Without that, any estimate you come up with is simply made up. They never raced each other nor have they had any teammates in common. In fact, none of their teammates have had any teammates in common. So the connections that you are trying to make are so flimsy that you would be foolish to assign significance to them.
I think Poker meant that we could estimate Alonso-Kimi and Hamilton-Bottas beforehand
But not Massa-Kimi nor Rosberg-Schumacher. It works sometimes but not other times. It's not a completely random thought process so it's bound to hit close to the mark at least some of the time but it is NOT reliably accurate.
There wasn't the data to make those kind of predictions although it was thought that Kimi would beat Massa and Schumacher would beat Rosberg, but I would say that was based on personal opinion/gut feeling?
There isn't data to make predictions about Hamilton and Verstappen either. They have never raced against each other as teammates. They do not have any teammates in common and their teammates do not have any teammates in common. The way that you are attempting to connect them is completely bogus.
In your opinion, the fact you bring forward Kimi/Massa and Schumacher/Rosberg to somehow try and show the comparisons to be bogus for me shows a little lack of understanding, I would say that both predictions were wrong because of a lack of data of how the match ups might turn out?

Edit: Regarding Vertsappen and Hamilton this prediction comes from KingVoid not from me as such, I would prefer a bit more data before looking to set things in stone as such.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by KingVoid »

sandman1347 wrote:
KingVoid wrote:How the hell was Bottas not faster than Hamilton at China 2018?

They were both on the same strategy. Bottas was beating Vettel and leading before the safety car while Hamilton was getting beat by Verstappen in an inferior Red Bull. After the SC, Bottas pulled an 8 second gap on Hamilton on equal tyres. Bottas held Raikkonen and Verstappen behind him. Hamilton got passed by both.

You have to be absolutely deluded to deny that Bottas was faster at China 2018.

Bottas was faster than Hamilton at Russia 2017, China 2018 and Canada 2018.
Ricciardo was faster than Verstappen at Abu Dhabi 2017. That’s it as far as 2017/18 is concerned.
The way you wrote that post made it look like you were talking about China of this season. I didn't know you were talking about 2018. I think it's fair to give Bottas China in 2018 and I think Canada from that year is close enough that you can choose to give him that one if you want.

What you said about Max and Daniel isn't true though. Daniel was faster than Max in Italy 2017, Abu Dhabi 2017, Baku 2018, Monaco 2018 (prior to the mechanical failure), Australia 2018 and possibly others. I'm just going from memory here but your claim that Max was always quicker than Daniel in the races is bogus. That's not to even mention the fact that lot of the 2017-18 races, you cannot even determine who was quicker because one of them had a mechanical failure far too early in the race to make any meaningful assessment.
Italy 2017 - Verstappen outqualifies Ricciardo and is ahead in the race before Massa hits him
Australia 2018 - Verstappen outqualifies Ricciardo, spins and suffers floor damage
Monaco 2018 - literally no race pace comparison whatsoever. That’s like claiming that Bottas was faster at Monaco 2017 on the basis of qualifying.

In 2017 and 2018 as a whole, Verstappen outqualified Ricciardo 28-13 which is identical to Hamilton’s score over Bottas. The median margin for both was also about 0.170s. Verstappen’s pace advantage over Ricciardo was basically identical to Hamilton’s pace advantage over Bottas.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: But not Massa-Kimi nor Rosberg-Schumacher. It works sometimes but not other times. It's not a completely random thought process so it's bound to hit close to the mark at least some of the time but it is NOT reliably accurate.
There wasn't the data to make those kind of predictions although it was thought that Kimi would beat Massa and Schumacher would beat Rosberg, but I would say that was based on personal opinion/gut feeling?
There isn't data to make predictions about Hamilton and Verstappen either. They have never raced against each other as teammates. They do not have any teammates in common and their teammates do not have any teammates in common. The way that you are attempting to connect them is completely bogus.
In your opinion, the fact you bring forward Kimi/Massa and Schumacher/Rosberg to somehow try and show the comparisons to be bogus for me shows a little lack of understanding, I would say that both predictions were wrong because of a lack of data of how the match ups might turn out?

Edit: Regarding Vertsappen and Hamilton this prediction comes from KingVoid not from me as such, I would prefer a bit more data before looking to set things in stone as such.
A lack of understanding? I find it amusing that you would choose to make a condescending comment about this when you and I have recently discussed your whole method of trying to come up with these answers in detail. You know full well that I know exactly how you do it. You also know that I have explained quite clearly why it is not a valid method and have also provided other examples where it doesn't work. Your response, at the time, was to provide anecdotal evidence of examples where it did work to a relatively close degree. My attempt to explain why that anecdotal evidence doesn't constitute a proof clearly fell on deaf ears.

The type of evidence that you claim supports the Hamilton/Verstappen hypothesis is the exact same kind you could use for Massa/Kimi or Rosberg/Schumacher. Rosberg had, in fact, been teamed up with Alex Wurz in 2007 and was usually quicker. Wurz was a teammate to Giancarlo Fiscichella in the 1998-2000 time-frame and was generally slower (I won't tally up their qualifying gaps - perhaps you already have?). Now Fisichella later went on to team with Massa at Sauber in 2004 and comfortably beat him. Massa went on to team up with Jaques Villeneuve in 2005 and then Schumacher in 2006. Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa both had a full season as Nick Heidfeld's teammate actually (both losing to him in the points). Raikkonen in 2001 and Massa in 2002. Even After that, Raikkonen teamed with Coulthard, who eventually teamed with Mark Webber, who spent a season teamed with Nico Rosberg, etc.

So you could easily connect the dots and try to come up with numbers to determine who would finish where between these drivers but there would be one problem. You'd be wasting your f*#@ing time!

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

KingVoid wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
KingVoid wrote:How the hell was Bottas not faster than Hamilton at China 2018?

They were both on the same strategy. Bottas was beating Vettel and leading before the safety car while Hamilton was getting beat by Verstappen in an inferior Red Bull. After the SC, Bottas pulled an 8 second gap on Hamilton on equal tyres. Bottas held Raikkonen and Verstappen behind him. Hamilton got passed by both.

You have to be absolutely deluded to deny that Bottas was faster at China 2018.

Bottas was faster than Hamilton at Russia 2017, China 2018 and Canada 2018.
Ricciardo was faster than Verstappen at Abu Dhabi 2017. That’s it as far as 2017/18 is concerned.
The way you wrote that post made it look like you were talking about China of this season. I didn't know you were talking about 2018. I think it's fair to give Bottas China in 2018 and I think Canada from that year is close enough that you can choose to give him that one if you want.

What you said about Max and Daniel isn't true though. Daniel was faster than Max in Italy 2017, Abu Dhabi 2017, Baku 2018, Monaco 2018 (prior to the mechanical failure), Australia 2018 and possibly others. I'm just going from memory here but your claim that Max was always quicker than Daniel in the races is bogus. That's not to even mention the fact that lot of the 2017-18 races, you cannot even determine who was quicker because one of them had a mechanical failure far too early in the race to make any meaningful assessment.
Italy 2017 - Verstappen outqualifies Ricciardo and is ahead in the race before Massa hits him
Australia 2018 - Verstappen outqualifies Ricciardo, spins and suffers floor damage
Monaco 2018 - literally no race pace comparison whatsoever. That’s like claiming that Bottas was faster at Monaco 2017 on the basis of qualifying.

In 2017 and 2018 as a whole, Verstappen outqualified Ricciardo 28-13 which is identical to Hamilton’s score over Bottas. The median margin for both was also about 0.170s. Verstappen’s pace advantage over Ricciardo was basically identical to Hamilton’s pace advantage over Bottas.
Massa hits him? Really? Max was way too aggressive there and it was more on him than Felipe IMO. This shows your mindset in this whole discussion. You are pushing an agenda and it's very clear to see. We went through this before with Vettel and Hamilton in 2017-2018 if I recall...

Anyway, I thought the damage that he had there was only to his front wing and that he replaced that? I'll take your word for it; can't be bothered to go back and look. Likewise, I didn't recall Max's floor being damaged in Australia last year. Only that he spun during the race and finished behind Daniel despite starting in front of him. If you want to claim that Bottas was faster in Canada in 2018 then it's perfectly fair game to claim that Daniel was faster in Monaco that same year. In both cases, their pace was determined by traffic.

It's humerous that you have spent so much time trying to make your case but the bottom line is that, until such time as Hamilton either teams with Verstappen or Daniel (or Max teams with Bottas) you won't have a reliable way to know how Lewis and Max compare.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by KingVoid »

Bottas and Ricciardo have gone up against the likes of Massa, Hulkenberg and Vettel (three well established benchmarks). Using those benchmarks as references, it is obvious that Ricciardo is a better driver than Bottas. You can continue to deny this because it doesn’t suit your narrative.

And again you think that me praising Max is some kind of conspiracy agenda against Lewis, when I have held the position that Verstappen is the fastest man in F1 as early as 2017.
IMO, Max Verstappen is already the best driver on the grid. I reckon he would beat both Hamilton and Vettel in the same car.
http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14436
Verstappen is just as fast as Hamilton, just as good in the rain, and tougher than Hamilton at wheel to wheel racing. He's also very adaptable. Also, unlike Hamilton and Ricciardo, Verstappen is not yet in his prime age. He's only getting better and better.
http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.ph ... 12#p728604

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

KingVoid wrote:Bottas and Ricciardo have gone up against the likes of Massa, Hulkenberg and Vettel (three well established benchmarks). Using those benchmarks as references, it is obvious that Ricciardo is a better driver than Bottas. You can continue to deny this because it doesn’t suit your narrative.

And again you think that me praising Max is some kind of conspiracy agenda against Lewis, when I have held the position that Verstappen is the fastest man in F1 as early as 2017.
IMO, Max Verstappen is already the best driver on the grid. I reckon he would beat both Hamilton and Vettel in the same car.
http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14436
Verstappen is just as fast as Hamilton, just as good in the rain, and tougher than Hamilton at wheel to wheel racing. He's also very adaptable. Also, unlike Hamilton and Ricciardo, Verstappen is not yet in his prime age. He's only getting better and better.
http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.ph ... 12#p728604
You can save the theatrics. Never said that. Your agenda is to try to prop up Max above the level he's proven himself to be. You want people to think Max is the top dirver in F1 despite the fact that he's never had a single WDC challenge, let alone won a WDC. He's never even had a WDC-caliber campaign from start to finish. I'm not taking a shot at him, mind you. I'm pointing out that he has not established himself to be at the same level as Hamilton. There's no real argument to be made to the contrary.

As for the thing about Bottas and Ricciardo; when did I say that Bottas was better than Ricciardo? I don't think Bottas is better than Ricciardo personally but that's not at all what has been discussed. The only thing that we've been looking at are qualifying performances. Do I think Bottas is as good of a qualifier as Ricciardo? Probably but I would take Daniel on Sunday.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Jezza13 »

sandman1347 wrote:
KingVoid wrote:Bottas and Ricciardo have gone up against the likes of Massa, Hulkenberg and Vettel (three well established benchmarks). Using those benchmarks as references, it is obvious that Ricciardo is a better driver than Bottas. You can continue to deny this because it doesn’t suit your narrative.

And again you think that me praising Max is some kind of conspiracy agenda against Lewis, when I have held the position that Verstappen is the fastest man in F1 as early as 2017.
IMO, Max Verstappen is already the best driver on the grid. I reckon he would beat both Hamilton and Vettel in the same car.
http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14436
Verstappen is just as fast as Hamilton, just as good in the rain, and tougher than Hamilton at wheel to wheel racing. He's also very adaptable. Also, unlike Hamilton and Ricciardo, Verstappen is not yet in his prime age. He's only getting better and better.
http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.ph ... 12#p728604
You can save the theatrics. Never said that. Your agenda is to try to prop up Max above the level he's proven himself to be. You want people to think Max is the top dirver in F1 despite the fact that he's never had a single WDC challenge, let alone won a WDC. He's never even had a WDC-caliber campaign from start to finish. I'm not taking a shot at him, mind you. I'm pointing out that he has not established himself to be at the same level as Hamilton. There's no real argument to be made to the contrary.
He's not even managed a pole position yet despite Ricciardo getting 3 during their years together, 2 last year.

Even Raikonnen managed a pole position during his time at Ferrari & of course Leclerc broke his duck in only his 9th race at the sharp end of the field in Austria.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

This conversation reminds me of 2007/2008 when discussing Hamilton versus Alonso.

Just as it was obvious back then that Hamilton was going to be a top drawer driver back then, it is obvious that Max is going to be a top drawer driver as well.

But just as it was ridiculous to say that Hamilton was the fastest ever driver back then, it is ridiculous to say the same of Max today. Max has to deliver on his potential just as Hamilton has had to.

And if you are making the case for Max being the fastest ever driver, your argument has to consist of more than just "I've done these qualifying deltas between team mates" - for many many reasons. For a start, qualifying is only one measure of a driver's speed, secondly, this qualifying deltas are notoriously imprecise and have huge error bars, yet are being used here as if they have the precision of an atomic clock. There is also the issue of the impact that strategy has on qualifying times, if the one season of data being used represented an off season for the other driver in question, tyres, weather, temperatures, relative performance of the other cars (for instance, from 2014-2016, Hamilton and Rosberg only had to beat each other as they were guaranteed to lock out the front row in most races, and even if they failed, they would still be in P2)

Also, the shape of the data when it comes to F1 is very very small. Neural networks in computer science needs thousands and thousands of cases of training data before they start making reliable predictions, most drivers are team mates for less than 3 seasons, which is around 60 races, which means circumstances have a huge impact. Yes, if there is a big margin in favour of one driver you can probably start to say that driver is faster than his team mate, but if you try to measure it to the tenth of a second then you are either a fool or you are just trying to prop up your argument by asserting a fact where there isn't one.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by KingVoid »

I don’t know if you are arguing with me, but I never made the claim that Verstappen is the fastest driver ever. I said he’s the fastest driver on the grid right now, there’s a big difference.

Also, it would have been perfectly reasonable to suggest that Hamilton was the fastest driver on the grid in 2008. In fact, it would have been the logical answer.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Exediron »

Jezza13 wrote:He's not even managed a pole position yet despite Ricciardo getting 3 during their years together, 2 last year.

Even Raikonnen managed a pole position during his time at Ferrari & of course Leclerc broke his duck in only his 9th race at the sharp end of the field in Austria.
Actually, Leclerc did it in his 2nd race at the sharp end of the field - in Bahrain.

While I do believe that Max is an absolutely top quality driver, it's hard to deny that there's a clear pattern of him choking on poles at this point. He's been in a car that looked pole capable on a number of occasions, and yet he has never managed to close it out. On three occasions, his teammate did: how do we know that Ricciardo wouldn't have taken another pole in Austria, for example? A lot of the time there seems to be some technical issue that just barely cost him pole, but when it happens so often, you have to wonder...
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Laz_T800 »

Alienturnedhuman wrote:This conversation reminds me of 2007/2008 when discussing Hamilton versus Alonso.

Just as it was obvious back then that Hamilton was going to be a top drawer driver back then, it is obvious that Max is going to be a top drawer driver as well.

But just as it was ridiculous to say that Hamilton was the fastest ever driver back then, it is ridiculous to say the same of Max today. Max has to deliver on his potential just as Hamilton has had to.

And if you are making the case for Max being the fastest ever driver, your argument has to consist of more than just "I've done these qualifying deltas between team mates" - for many many reasons. For a start, qualifying is only one measure of a driver's speed, secondly, this qualifying deltas are notoriously imprecise and have huge error bars, yet are being used here as if they have the precision of an atomic clock. There is also the issue of the impact that strategy has on qualifying times, if the one season of data being used represented an off season for the other driver in question, tyres, weather, temperatures, relative performance of the other cars (for instance, from 2014-2016, Hamilton and Rosberg only had to beat each other as they were guaranteed to lock out the front row in most races, and even if they failed, they would still be in P2)

Also, the shape of the data when it comes to F1 is very very small. Neural networks in computer science needs thousands and thousands of cases of training data before they start making reliable predictions, most drivers are team mates for less than 3 seasons, which is around 60 races, which means circumstances have a huge impact. Yes, if there is a big margin in favour of one driver you can probably start to say that driver is faster than his team mate, but if you try to measure it to the tenth of a second then you are either a fool or you are just trying to prop up your argument by asserting a fact where there isn't one.
I agree completely.
Max has enormous potential and may already be the fastest in F1.
This is of course unproven and we may never actually know for sure.
Trying to pass off data, that is so far removed from a direct comparison between Verstappen and Hamilton, as some kind of proof that Verstappen is quicker, is quite honestly ridiculous.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Exediron wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:He's not even managed a pole position yet despite Ricciardo getting 3 during their years together, 2 last year.

Even Raikonnen managed a pole position during his time at Ferrari & of course Leclerc broke his duck in only his 9th race at the sharp end of the field in Austria.
Actually, Leclerc did it in his 2nd race at the sharp end of the field - in Bahrain.

While I do believe that Max is an absolutely top quality driver, it's hard to deny that there's a clear pattern of him choking on poles at this point. He's been in a car that looked pole capable on a number of occasions, and yet he has never managed to close it out. On three occasions, his teammate did: how do we know that Ricciardo wouldn't have taken another pole in Austria, for example? A lot of the time there seems to be some technical issue that just barely cost him pole, but when it happens so often, you have to wonder...
Twice.

He didn't take part in Quali at Monaco 2018. I'm not sure something happening twice can be described as a pattern.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Asphalt_World »

God I love this thread. Please don't lock it.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: But not Massa-Kimi nor Rosberg-Schumacher. It works sometimes but not other times. It's not a completely random thought process so it's bound to hit close to the mark at least some of the time but it is NOT reliably accurate.
There wasn't the data to make those kind of predictions although it was thought that Kimi would beat Massa and Schumacher would beat Rosberg, but I would say that was based on personal opinion/gut feeling?
There isn't data to make predictions about Hamilton and Verstappen either. They have never raced against each other as teammates. They do not have any teammates in common and their teammates do not have any teammates in common. The way that you are attempting to connect them is completely bogus.
In your opinion, the fact you bring forward Kimi/Massa and Schumacher/Rosberg to somehow try and show the comparisons to be bogus for me shows a little lack of understanding, I would say that both predictions were wrong because of a lack of data of how the match ups might turn out?

Edit: Regarding Vertsappen and Hamilton this prediction comes from KingVoid not from me as such, I would prefer a bit more data before looking to set things in stone as such.
A lack of understanding? I find it amusing that you would choose to make a condescending comment about this when you and I have recently discussed your whole method of trying to come up with these answers in detail. You know full well that I know exactly how you do it. You also know that I have explained quite clearly why it is not a valid method and have also provided other examples where it doesn't work. Your response, at the time, was to provide anecdotal evidence of examples where it did work to a relatively close degree. My attempt to explain why that anecdotal evidence doesn't constitute a proof clearly fell on deaf ears.

The type of evidence that you claim supports the Hamilton/Verstappen hypothesis is the exact same kind you could use for Massa/Kimi or Rosberg/Schumacher. Rosberg had, in fact, been teamed up with Alex Wurz in 2007 and was usually quicker. Wurz was a teammate to Giancarlo Fiscichella in the 1998-2000 time-frame and was generally slower (I won't tally up their qualifying gaps - perhaps you already have?). Now Fisichella later went on to team with Massa at Sauber in 2004 and comfortably beat him. Massa went on to team up with Jaques Villeneuve in 2005 and then Schumacher in 2006. Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa both had a full season as Nick Heidfeld's teammate actually (both losing to him in the points). Raikkonen in 2001 and Massa in 2002. Even After that, Raikkonen teamed with Coulthard, who eventually teamed with Mark Webber, who spent a season teamed with Nico Rosberg, etc.

So you could easily connect the dots and try to come up with numbers to determine who would finish where between these drivers but there would be one problem. You'd be wasting your f*#@ing time!
Were did you miss such things as not using rookie data, also any such compilations I stopped making in the mid 2000s because the qualifying systems at the time were a lottery and rendered such things as useless, before that it was pre internet and I didn't give any thought to making cross driver comparisons, it's only recently when I started seeing some correlation that it perked my interest.

The condescending comment is because how can you blame any system for getting the Kimi/Massa and Schumacher/Rosberg predictions wrong when such systems were not being used to make those predictions in the first place?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote:I don’t know if you are arguing with me, but I never made the claim that Verstappen is the fastest driver ever. I said he’s the fastest driver on the grid right now, there’s a big difference.

Also, it would have been perfectly reasonable to suggest that Hamilton was the fastest driver on the grid in 2008. In fact, it would have been the logical answer.
Indeed he had already been paired with Alonso and Kimi's performances in 2008 were somewhat questionable, let's not forget he basically got sacked by Ferrari, both Alonso and Kimi were seen as the heir apparents post Schumacher.
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: There isn't data to make predictions about Hamilton and Verstappen either. They have never raced against each other as teammates. They do not have any teammates in common and their teammates do not have any teammates in common. The way that you are attempting to connect them is completely bogus.
In your opinion, the fact you bring forward Kimi/Massa and Schumacher/Rosberg to somehow try and show the comparisons to be bogus for me shows a little lack of understanding, I would say that both predictions were wrong because of a lack of data of how the match ups might turn out?

Edit: Regarding Vertsappen and Hamilton this prediction comes from KingVoid not from me as such, I would prefer a bit more data before looking to set things in stone as such.
A lack of understanding? I find it amusing that you would choose to make a condescending comment about this when you and I have recently discussed your whole method of trying to come up with these answers in detail. You know full well that I know exactly how you do it. You also know that I have explained quite clearly why it is not a valid method and have also provided other examples where it doesn't work. Your response, at the time, was to provide anecdotal evidence of examples where it did work to a relatively close degree. My attempt to explain why that anecdotal evidence doesn't constitute a proof clearly fell on deaf ears.

The type of evidence that you claim supports the Hamilton/Verstappen hypothesis is the exact same kind you could use for Massa/Kimi or Rosberg/Schumacher. Rosberg had, in fact, been teamed up with Alex Wurz in 2007 and was usually quicker. Wurz was a teammate to Giancarlo Fiscichella in the 1998-2000 time-frame and was generally slower (I won't tally up their qualifying gaps - perhaps you already have?). Now Fisichella later went on to team with Massa at Sauber in 2004 and comfortably beat him. Massa went on to team up with Jaques Villeneuve in 2005 and then Schumacher in 2006. Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa both had a full season as Nick Heidfeld's teammate actually (both losing to him in the points). Raikkonen in 2001 and Massa in 2002. Even After that, Raikkonen teamed with Coulthard, who eventually teamed with Mark Webber, who spent a season teamed with Nico Rosberg, etc.

So you could easily connect the dots and try to come up with numbers to determine who would finish where between these drivers but there would be one problem. You'd be wasting your f*#@ing time!
Were did you miss such things as not using rookie data, also any such compilations I stopped making in the mid 2000s because the qualifying systems at the time were a lottery and rendered such things as useless, before that it was pre internet and I didn't give any thought to making cross driver comparisons, it's only recently when I started seeing some correlation that it perked my interest.

The condescending comment is because how can you blame any system for getting the Kimi/Massa and Schumacher/Rosberg predictions wrong when such systems were not being used to make those predictions in the first place?
Both Kimi and Massa were rookies when they faced Heidfeld so any rookie variable would be factored out there. If you make an effort to remove lottery aspects from your comparison then you must also exclude sessions where one driver has an upgrade but the other doesn't. You would also have to ensure that they were in the same window with their race engine. If one driver just got a new unit placed in his car while the other driver was on his 5th race, surely that session cannot count? You would also have to factor out their position on the race track and the timing of their lap (how late in the session and how much rubber was down). Did they get a slipstream? Was the track temperature the same? Did either of them make a mistake (you're measuring speed not the ability to avoid errors)? Etc.

You would also need to look at the variance of a given data set as well as the number of data points and determine whether or not you even have a statistically significant difference established (I'll spoil that one - you don't). If you want to use a scientifically oriented method then you have to observe the rules. I think it's arguable that looking at qualifying margins between teammates over the course of a few seasons can tell you which one is faster. The idea that it can produce an exact figure that is reliable is completely bogus however. You can't pick and choose when to apply scientific thinking. You either accept it or you reject it. Right now you are like the man who listens to meteorologists when they predict that it's going to rain today but ignores them when they discuss climate change.

sandman1347
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

Laz_T800 wrote:
Alienturnedhuman wrote:This conversation reminds me of 2007/2008 when discussing Hamilton versus Alonso.

Just as it was obvious back then that Hamilton was going to be a top drawer driver back then, it is obvious that Max is going to be a top drawer driver as well.

But just as it was ridiculous to say that Hamilton was the fastest ever driver back then, it is ridiculous to say the same of Max today. Max has to deliver on his potential just as Hamilton has had to.

And if you are making the case for Max being the fastest ever driver, your argument has to consist of more than just "I've done these qualifying deltas between team mates" - for many many reasons. For a start, qualifying is only one measure of a driver's speed, secondly, this qualifying deltas are notoriously imprecise and have huge error bars, yet are being used here as if they have the precision of an atomic clock. There is also the issue of the impact that strategy has on qualifying times, if the one season of data being used represented an off season for the other driver in question, tyres, weather, temperatures, relative performance of the other cars (for instance, from 2014-2016, Hamilton and Rosberg only had to beat each other as they were guaranteed to lock out the front row in most races, and even if they failed, they would still be in P2)

Also, the shape of the data when it comes to F1 is very very small. Neural networks in computer science needs thousands and thousands of cases of training data before they start making reliable predictions, most drivers are team mates for less than 3 seasons, which is around 60 races, which means circumstances have a huge impact. Yes, if there is a big margin in favour of one driver you can probably start to say that driver is faster than his team mate, but if you try to measure it to the tenth of a second then you are either a fool or you are just trying to prop up your argument by asserting a fact where there isn't one.
I agree completely.
Max has enormous potential and may already be the fastest in F1.
This is of course unproven and we may never actually know for sure.
Trying to pass off data, that is so far removed from a direct comparison between Verstappen and Hamilton, as some kind of proof that Verstappen is quicker, is quite honestly ridiculous.
Exactly. It just doesn't work like that. You can't talk your way into being the best. You have to prove it on the race track. You have to establish it in a concrete way, otherwise anyone can lay claim to being the best. I could say that George Russel is the best driver ever. After all, look at the margin that he's beating Kubica by. Kubica use to be teamed with Heidfeld and Heidfeld was teamed with....

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Jezza13
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Jezza13 »

Exediron wrote:
Jezza13 wrote:He's not even managed a pole position yet despite Ricciardo getting 3 during their years together, 2 last year.

Even Raikonnen managed a pole position during his time at Ferrari & of course Leclerc broke his duck in only his 9th race at the sharp end of the field in Austria.
Actually, Leclerc did it in his 2nd race at the sharp end of the field - in Bahrain.

While I do believe that Max is an absolutely top quality driver, it's hard to deny that there's a clear pattern of him choking on poles at this point. He's been in a car that looked pole capable on a number of occasions, and yet he has never managed to close it out. On three occasions, his teammate did: how do we know that Ricciardo wouldn't have taken another pole in Austria, for example? A lot of the time there seems to be some technical issue that just barely cost him pole, but when it happens so often, you have to wonder...
Yeah, forgot Bahrain.

The thing with Verstappen this year is the we have no-one available to get a good measure of his performance as Ghasly, for whatever reason, has been so abysmal.

How do we know exactly how good the RB is? I have a feeling Verstappens wringing it's neck but I also don't know if a Hamilton, Leclerc, Ricciardo or Vet......., uh, ok, maybe stop at Ricciardo, couldn't have done slightly better?

As for Verstappens issue with poles Exed, there's a hundred gags there, perhaps literally, but I shall respect forum decency not venture into that territory.
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Option or Prime
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Option or Prime »

Out of interest how long would Verstappen have to go without winning a WDC before fans concluded that despite his speed he didn't have the 'x factor' to be a champion.
With Leclerc in position already in a top team wouldn't he be in pole position to take one when Hamilton retires? Alternatively is the RB/Honda package good enough to overtake Mercedes and Ferrari?

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