How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPLIT)

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sandman1347
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Re: Who should replace Bottas at Merc

Post by sandman1347 »

pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote: Well for sure it's not the absolute truth, it's a prediction as much as anything, also I did say any kind of prediction regarding Verstappen and Hamilton is also a bit premature at this time.
Out of curiosity; how did you accumulate your numbers for Max and Dan? Did you use their entire time as teammates?
No just the last 2 seasons, in 2016 Verstappen joined the team mid season and was initially getting beat by Ricciardo, that year I just treat as a rookie year given the circumstances.

For the record I have Verstappen beating Ricciardo by 0.16s, KingVoids reasoning that Verstappen could well be 2 tenths clear of the field is what you might call the result of massively rounding up. :)

Also I need to repeat again that anything that relates to Hamilton is greatly immature at this present time.
It's beyond immature. If you pay close attention to 2018; Daniel frequently faced reliability issues both on Saturdays and Sundays. In 2017, it was kind of the other way around. Anyway, I was curious about that.
The issues were mainly on the Sundays I wouldn't include anything that was affecting performance on the Saturday.

I'm a bit puzzled why you would be wanting to refute the notion of Verstappen being quicker than Ricciardo?
Verstappen is quicker than Ricciardo. When did I attempt to refute that?

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Re: Who should replace Bottas at Merc

Post by pokerman »

sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: Out of curiosity; how did you accumulate your numbers for Max and Dan? Did you use their entire time as teammates?
No just the last 2 seasons, in 2016 Verstappen joined the team mid season and was initially getting beat by Ricciardo, that year I just treat as a rookie year given the circumstances.

For the record I have Verstappen beating Ricciardo by 0.16s, KingVoids reasoning that Verstappen could well be 2 tenths clear of the field is what you might call the result of massively rounding up. :)

Also I need to repeat again that anything that relates to Hamilton is greatly immature at this present time.
It's beyond immature. If you pay close attention to 2018; Daniel frequently faced reliability issues both on Saturdays and Sundays. In 2017, it was kind of the other way around. Anyway, I was curious about that.
The issues were mainly on the Sundays I wouldn't include anything that was affecting performance on the Saturday.

I'm a bit puzzled why you would be wanting to refute the notion of Verstappen being quicker than Ricciardo?
Verstappen is quicker than Ricciardo. When did I attempt to refute that?
So the problem is a gap that can't be measured?
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Re: Who should replace Bottas at Merc

Post by sandman1347 »

pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote: The issues were mainly on the Sundays I wouldn't include anything that was affecting performance on the Saturday.

I'm a bit puzzled why you would be wanting to refute the notion of Verstappen being quicker than Ricciardo?
Verstappen is quicker than Ricciardo. When did I attempt to refute that?
So the problem is a gap that can't be measured?
Yeah, as I mentioned before, the time gaps that you are collecting are not statistically significant or reliable for a great many reasons. The general A > B comparisons are fairly reliable though.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Mod Aqua »

Have split out the discussion about Verstappen's speed relative to Hamilton as it has become distinct from the original thread.

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Re: Who should replace Bottas at Merc

Post by pokerman »

sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote: The issues were mainly on the Sundays I wouldn't include anything that was affecting performance on the Saturday.

I'm a bit puzzled why you would be wanting to refute the notion of Verstappen being quicker than Ricciardo?
Verstappen is quicker than Ricciardo. When did I attempt to refute that?
So the problem is a gap that can't be measured?
Yeah, as I mentioned before, the time gaps that you are collecting are not statistically significant or reliable for a great many reasons. The general A > B comparisons are fairly reliable though.
Fair enough but in respect to that it's curious how people can decide who are the fastest drivers when they have never been teammates?
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Re: Who should replace Bottas at Merc

Post by Exediron »

pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:Yeah, as I mentioned before, the time gaps that you are collecting are not statistically significant or reliable for a great many reasons. The general A > B comparisons are fairly reliable though.
Fair enough but in respect to that it's curious how people can decide who are the fastest drivers when they have never been teammates?
I think that's why a lot of people refuse to rank the drivers beyond putting them into fairly broad tiers. You really don't know beyond that if they haven't been teammates.
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Re: Who should replace Bottas at Merc

Post by pokerman »

Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:Yeah, as I mentioned before, the time gaps that you are collecting are not statistically significant or reliable for a great many reasons. The general A > B comparisons are fairly reliable though.
Fair enough but in respect to that it's curious how people can decide who are the fastest drivers when they have never been teammates?
I think that's why a lot of people refuse to rank the drivers beyond putting them into fairly broad tiers. You really don't know beyond that if they haven't been teammates.
Well a lot do and a lot don't.
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Re: Who should replace Bottas at Merc

Post by sandman1347 »

pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:Yeah, as I mentioned before, the time gaps that you are collecting are not statistically significant or reliable for a great many reasons. The general A > B comparisons are fairly reliable though.
Fair enough but in respect to that it's curious how people can decide who are the fastest drivers when they have never been teammates?
I think that's why a lot of people refuse to rank the drivers beyond putting them into fairly broad tiers. You really don't know beyond that if they haven't been teammates.
Well a lot do and a lot don't.
People can still form opinions but there is a difference between that and claiming absolute knowledge. I have my own strong opinions about the pecking order in F1 and I always have. I don't claim that they are facts though unless they have been "proven" through a teammate comparison.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by iano »

KingVoid wrote:How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton?

The Ricciardo/Hulkenberg and Ricciardo/Vettel cross comparisons basically suggest that Verstappen is around 2 tenths quicker than even Hamilton/Alonso tier

I know sounds absurd, but that is what the numbers say.
The reality is that even when drivers have the same cars on the same tracks on the same days, it can be difficult to say which driver was quicker and what differences came down to chance and other factors.

I think most of us feel Hamilton is faster than Bottas..... but he is not always faster than Bottas!

Also, different cars suit different driving styles, and drivers do evolve, so they are not born with a single innate 'speed' that is fixed for their entire career.

So trying to compare two drivers in different cars becomes very subjective, and comparing on the basis of how they compared at other times to other drivers when in different cars..... well... it is not really a science they will yield a meaningful 'seconds per lap quicker'. It that was possible, we would have difference for Hamilton and Bottas, and is would be an accurate predictor of the gap and the end of races without other overriding factors .

That said, on this years performances, I feel it is very possible Verstappen has achieved even more relative to his equipment than Hamilton has.

Put them in the same cars and, depending on the response of the team around them, it seems very likely Verstappen could out perform Hamilton.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Invade »

No idea who is quicker. Verstappen was impressive against Ricciardo but lacks Ricc's opportunism. All I really think is that over the last year or so Verstappen has matured to the point where he's the only driver in the field I think can give Hamilton a good fight. He's still more error prone than Hamilton but he's clean and quick enough to probably be able to challenge Hamilton in equal machinery, with both having their chances to win over a season.

My hunch is that if they were paired, Hamilton would win in season 1 and Verstappen in season 2. Verstappen has only just hit his prime - impressive given he's only 21 to already be in that window. He's ready.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Mercedes-Benz »

It is ironic that Max has not got pole position yet and by very small margin was pipped by Ricciardo that day. Monaco last year he could have had a chance if he had not crashed in FP3. He has missed out on Vettel's record for youngest driver to get pole. TBH with Mercedes, Ferrari having superior party mode and engine advantage it is almost impossible to get pole anyways.

All things considered I think Max is the fastest, best driver in F1 ATM. Hopefully he has got more mature now and will give respect to other drivers. You do not have to be like Kimi, Button who I think are little nicer, not aggressive enough. But Max, K Mag, Ricciardo style is too video gamish :lol:
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by KingVoid »

Verstappen needs to go to Mercedes in 2020. It needs to happen for the sake of F1.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Badgeronimous »

I think Verstappen is probably about as quick as Hamilton. Perhaps even quicker, but at these levels it is fractions. Its all ancedotal anyway

I still think Hamilton would win over a season as I don't think Max is anywhere near as complete as Hamilton nor is he isn't battle proven. Although he does finally seem to be growing up a bit - I still think he could explode under pressure.

Hamilton has definitely matured and added a completeness and consistency to his overall game over these last 4-5 years. He is a top notch driver, driving at his very best, totally comfortable within himself, and in the prime seat on the grid.

It is formidable.

But at 34, Hamilton isn't going to improve. As somebody said earlier, when the two finally battle it out, it might have a changing of the guard feel about it - just past peak Lewis vs pre peak Max.
Last edited by Badgeronimous on Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Pullrod »

I am still mystified by the confidence people have when they say Verstappen is as quick as Hamilton and will beat him.

Hamilton is a proven Top driver and has won at least 1 race and scored at least 1 Pole position in any season he has entered since his debut(12 years ago).

Hamilton in the RB of the past years would have had at least 2 pole positions(zero doubt about it).

People need to remember that the "harder" is a car to drive the bigger is usually the gap between the drivers as the team tend to go for the faster driver making his "small" gap even bigger than it really is.

The easier a car is to drive(think Mercedes of these years) the smaller are the gaps. There is no way Hamilton or Alonso or whoever you think could consistently be 3 tenths quicker in Q3 than a Top 10 driver without mechanical or set up problems.

So keep this in mind when you do cross comparisons.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Pullrod wrote:I am still mystified by the confidence people have when they say Verstappen is as quick as Hamilton and will beat him.

Hamilton is a proven Top driver and has won at least 1 race and scored at least 1 Pole position in any season he has entered since his debut(12 years ago).

Hamilton in the RB of the past years would have had at least 2 pole positions(zero doubt about it).

People need to remember that the "harder" is a car to drive the bigger is usually the gap between the drivers as the team tend to go for the faster driver making his "small" gap even bigger than it really is.

The easier a car is to drive(think Mercedes of these years) the smaller are the gaps. There is no way Hamilton or Alonso or whoever you think could consistently be 3 tenths quicker in Q3 than a Top 10 driver without mechanical or set up problems.

So keep this in mind when you do cross comparisons.
I think we've seen that happen.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Pullrod »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:I am still mystified by the confidence people have when they say Verstappen is as quick as Hamilton and will beat him.

Hamilton is a proven Top driver and has won at least 1 race and scored at least 1 Pole position in any season he has entered since his debut(12 years ago).

Hamilton in the RB of the past years would have had at least 2 pole positions(zero doubt about it).

People need to remember that the "harder" is a car to drive the bigger is usually the gap between the drivers as the team tend to go for the faster driver making his "small" gap even bigger than it really is.

The easier a car is to drive(think Mercedes of these years) the smaller are the gaps. There is no way Hamilton or Alonso or whoever you think could consistently be 3 tenths quicker in Q3 than a Top 10 driver without mechanical or set up problems.

So keep this in mind when you do cross comparisons.
I think we've seen that happen.
Then he is not a TOP 10 driver and has no place in a Top team.
I said consistently and with a "perfect" car like the dominant Mercedes (It is a given that the #1 #2 priority Ferrari seems to like doesn't count ;) ).

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Pullrod wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:I am still mystified by the confidence people have when they say Verstappen is as quick as Hamilton and will beat him.

Hamilton is a proven Top driver and has won at least 1 race and scored at least 1 Pole position in any season he has entered since his debut(12 years ago).

Hamilton in the RB of the past years would have had at least 2 pole positions(zero doubt about it).

People need to remember that the "harder" is a car to drive the bigger is usually the gap between the drivers as the team tend to go for the faster driver making his "small" gap even bigger than it really is.

The easier a car is to drive(think Mercedes of these years) the smaller are the gaps. There is no way Hamilton or Alonso or whoever you think could consistently be 3 tenths quicker in Q3 than a Top 10 driver without mechanical or set up problems.

So keep this in mind when you do cross comparisons.
I think we've seen that happen.
Then he is not a TOP 10 driver and has no place in a Top team.
I said consistently and with a "perfect" car like the dominant Mercedes (It is a given that the #1 #2 priority Ferrari seems to like doesn't count ;) ).
How about Alonso on Fissichella? Fuel adjusted I believe he had a gap like that?

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Pullrod »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:I am still mystified by the confidence people have when they say Verstappen is as quick as Hamilton and will beat him.

Hamilton is a proven Top driver and has won at least 1 race and scored at least 1 Pole position in any season he has entered since his debut(12 years ago).

Hamilton in the RB of the past years would have had at least 2 pole positions(zero doubt about it).

People need to remember that the "harder" is a car to drive the bigger is usually the gap between the drivers as the team tend to go for the faster driver making his "small" gap even bigger than it really is.

The easier a car is to drive(think Mercedes of these years) the smaller are the gaps. There is no way Hamilton or Alonso or whoever you think could consistently be 3 tenths quicker in Q3 than a Top 10 driver without mechanical or set up problems.

So keep this in mind when you do cross comparisons.
I think we've seen that happen.
Then he is not a TOP 10 driver and has no place in a Top team.
I said consistently and with a "perfect" car like the dominant Mercedes (It is a given that the #1 #2 priority Ferrari seems to like doesn't count ;) ).
How about Alonso on Fissichella? Fuel adjusted I believe he had a gap like that?
We are talking about the same Fisichella who was beaten by Kovalainen the guy who lost his F1 career in a Top team because he could not beat Hamilton?

To stay on topic, if you want to see how ridiculous cross comparisons are, just think about Raikkonen who could not beat Alonso even if the Spanish would drive with one hand tied behind his back.

The Finnish driver scored a pole position in Monza in 2018 so VET must lack several tenths against ALO and ALO would have been even 4-5 tenths faster on that day. Which is simply wrong.
Last edited by Pullrod on Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by stevey »

I've read through this thread and am honestly scratching my head about the data being used to come up with this imaginary 2 tenths and how the conclusions are being reached.

It would probably be easier to look at the difference in the cars ability to do a lap and then attribute a time against that. As in the teams saying how many tenths they are behind merc and then simply deducting that from the pole time set by LH. But in this instance you would need to look at track type, distance, number of straights. You'd probably still come up with a more realistic view than the one used for this thread.

The real only way we get the answers were looking for is if Max goes to Merc, I wouldnt trust it the other way round purely because RBR, Ferrari even Renault like to operate favourites and Merc is the only team that operates an equal policy for both drivers.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Pullrod wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:I am still mystified by the confidence people have when they say Verstappen is as quick as Hamilton and will beat him.

Hamilton is a proven Top driver and has won at least 1 race and scored at least 1 Pole position in any season he has entered since his debut(12 years ago).

Hamilton in the RB of the past years would have had at least 2 pole positions(zero doubt about it).

People need to remember that the "harder" is a car to drive the bigger is usually the gap between the drivers as the team tend to go for the faster driver making his "small" gap even bigger than it really is.

The easier a car is to drive(think Mercedes of these years) the smaller are the gaps. There is no way Hamilton or Alonso or whoever you think could consistently be 3 tenths quicker in Q3 than a Top 10 driver without mechanical or set up problems.

So keep this in mind when you do cross comparisons.
I think we've seen that happen.
Then he is not a TOP 10 driver and has no place in a Top team.
I said consistently and with a "perfect" car like the dominant Mercedes (It is a given that the #1 #2 priority Ferrari seems to like doesn't count ;) ).
How about Alonso on Fissichella? Fuel adjusted I believe he had a gap like that?
We are talking about the same Fisichella who was beaten by Kovalainen the guy who lost his F1 career in a Top team because he could not beat Hamilton?

To stay on topic, if you want to see how ridiculous cross comparisons are, just think about Raikkonen who could not beat Alonso even if the Spanish would drive with one hand tied behind his back.

The Finnish driver scored a pole position in Monza in 2018 so VET must lack several tenths against ALO and ALO would have been even 4-5 tenths faster on that day. Which is simply wrong.
The same Fissichella who was defiantly considered a top 10 driver. Yes, him.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Pullrod »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote: I think we've seen that happen.
Then he is not a TOP 10 driver and has no place in a Top team.
I said consistently and with a "perfect" car like the dominant Mercedes (It is a given that the #1 #2 priority Ferrari seems to like doesn't count ;) ).
How about Alonso on Fissichella? Fuel adjusted I believe he had a gap like that?
We are talking about the same Fisichella who was beaten by Kovalainen the guy who lost his F1 career in a Top team because he could not beat Hamilton?

To stay on topic, if you want to see how ridiculous cross comparisons are, just think about Raikkonen who could not beat Alonso even if the Spanish would drive with one hand tied behind his back.

The Finnish driver scored a pole position in Monza in 2018 so VET must lack several tenths against ALO and ALO would have been even 4-5 tenths faster on that day. Which is simply wrong.
The same Fissichella who was defiantly considered a top 10 driver. Yes, him.
Look, despite Fisichella lack of talent compared to Alonso or other champions, he was also driving for a team(Renault) who was not giving both their drivers the same opportunities and I don't think you would say otherwise.

In my mind Renault(with Briatore) and Ferrari are not the kind of team I think a driver who is a nobody could have a fair chance.

Gaps are not only results of talent(lack of) and it will be good for F1 fans to be aware of it.

Mercedes is the epitome of a Top F1 team and the consideration I did was done having them in mind.
If a guy is slow, they will do their best so that he could match the "faster" driver.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Pullrod wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:
Then he is not a TOP 10 driver and has no place in a Top team.
I said consistently and with a "perfect" car like the dominant Mercedes (It is a given that the #1 #2 priority Ferrari seems to like doesn't count ;) ).
How about Alonso on Fissichella? Fuel adjusted I believe he had a gap like that?
We are talking about the same Fisichella who was beaten by Kovalainen the guy who lost his F1 career in a Top team because he could not beat Hamilton?

To stay on topic, if you want to see how ridiculous cross comparisons are, just think about Raikkonen who could not beat Alonso even if the Spanish would drive with one hand tied behind his back.

The Finnish driver scored a pole position in Monza in 2018 so VET must lack several tenths against ALO and ALO would have been even 4-5 tenths faster on that day. Which is simply wrong.
The same Fissichella who was defiantly considered a top 10 driver. Yes, him.
Look, despite Fisichella lack of talent compared to Alonso or other champions, he was also driving for a team(Renault) who was not giving both their drivers the same opportunities and I don't think you would say otherwise.

In my mind Renault(with Briatore) and Ferrari are not the kind of team I think a driver who is a nobody could have a fair chance.

Gaps are not only results of talent(lack of) and it will be good for F1 fans to be aware of it.

Mercedes is the epitome of a Top F1 team and the consideration I did was done having them in mind.
If a guy is slow, they will do their best so that he could match the "faster" driver.
You're being a bit specific.

Nobody has ever set 10 consecutive lap records whilst driving backwards and playing the banjo either.

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Re: Who should replace Bottas at Merc

Post by pokerman »

sandman1347 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Exediron wrote:
pokerman wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:Yeah, as I mentioned before, the time gaps that you are collecting are not statistically significant or reliable for a great many reasons. The general A > B comparisons are fairly reliable though.
Fair enough but in respect to that it's curious how people can decide who are the fastest drivers when they have never been teammates?
I think that's why a lot of people refuse to rank the drivers beyond putting them into fairly broad tiers. You really don't know beyond that if they haven't been teammates.
Well a lot do and a lot don't.
People can still form opinions but there is a difference between that and claiming absolute knowledge. I have my own strong opinions about the pecking order in F1 and I always have. I don't claim that they are facts though unless they have been "proven" through a teammate comparison.
When it comes to subjective opinion we have seen people actually totally ignore direct teammate comparisons. :)
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

iano wrote:
KingVoid wrote:How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton?

The Ricciardo/Hulkenberg and Ricciardo/Vettel cross comparisons basically suggest that Verstappen is around 2 tenths quicker than even Hamilton/Alonso tier

I know sounds absurd, but that is what the numbers say.
The reality is that even when drivers have the same cars on the same tracks on the same days, it can be difficult to say which driver was quicker and what differences came down to chance and other factors.

I think most of us feel Hamilton is faster than Bottas..... but he is not always faster than Bottas!

Also, different cars suit different driving styles, and drivers do evolve, so they are not born with a single innate 'speed' that is fixed for their entire career.

So trying to compare two drivers in different cars becomes very subjective, and comparing on the basis of how they compared at other times to other drivers when in different cars..... well... it is not really a science they will yield a meaningful 'seconds per lap quicker'. It that was possible, we would have difference for Hamilton and Bottas, and is would be an accurate predictor of the gap and the end of races without other overriding factors .

That said, on this years performances, I feel it is very possible Verstappen has achieved even more relative to his equipment than Hamilton has.

Put them in the same cars and, depending on the response of the team around them, it seems very likely Verstappen could out perform Hamilton.
It's averaged performance, a driver being 0.2s quicker doesn't mean that's repeated everytime, sometimes the normally slower driver can be quicker, sometimes Rubens was quicker than Schumacher does that mean the other times that circumstances were merely unfortunate for him?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by pokerman »

Pullrod wrote:I am still mystified by the confidence people have when they say Verstappen is as quick as Hamilton and will beat him.

Hamilton is a proven Top driver and has won at least 1 race and scored at least 1 Pole position in any season he has entered since his debut(12 years ago).

Hamilton in the RB of the past years would have had at least 2 pole positions(zero doubt about it).

People need to remember that the "harder" is a car to drive the bigger is usually the gap between the drivers as the team tend to go for the faster driver making his "small" gap even bigger than it really is.

The easier a car is to drive(think Mercedes of these years) the smaller are the gaps. There is no way Hamilton or Alonso or whoever you think could consistently be 3 tenths quicker in Q3 than a Top 10 driver without mechanical or set up problems.

So keep this in mind when you do cross comparisons.
I'm sure Kimi was rated about 4th best driver in F1 when Alonso was nearly 3 tenths quicker than him in 2014?
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

Pullrod wrote:I am still mystified by the confidence people have when they say Verstappen is as quick as Hamilton and will beat him.

Hamilton is a proven Top driver and has won at least 1 race and scored at least 1 Pole position in any season he has entered since his debut(12 years ago).

Hamilton in the RB of the past years would have had at least 2 pole positions(zero doubt about it).

People need to remember that the "harder" is a car to drive the bigger is usually the gap between the drivers as the team tend to go for the faster driver making his "small" gap even bigger than it really is.

The easier a car is to drive(think Mercedes of these years) the smaller are the gaps. There is no way Hamilton or Alonso or whoever you think could consistently be 3 tenths quicker in Q3 than a Top 10 driver without mechanical or set up problems.

So keep this in mind when you do cross comparisons.
You shouldn't be mystified. We've seen this before, haven't we? Remember when everyone was so convinced that Kimi was the fastest man in F1 and talked about how he would beat Schumacher if Ferrari signed him? F1 fans are always looking for the shiny new object and this new push to lift Max to the same levels as Hamilton is actually quite predictable. Look how quickly people jumped on the Leclerc bandwagon after Bahrain. He was basically being compared to Senna after that.

mikeyg123
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

sandman1347 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:I am still mystified by the confidence people have when they say Verstappen is as quick as Hamilton and will beat him.

Hamilton is a proven Top driver and has won at least 1 race and scored at least 1 Pole position in any season he has entered since his debut(12 years ago).

Hamilton in the RB of the past years would have had at least 2 pole positions(zero doubt about it).

People need to remember that the "harder" is a car to drive the bigger is usually the gap between the drivers as the team tend to go for the faster driver making his "small" gap even bigger than it really is.

The easier a car is to drive(think Mercedes of these years) the smaller are the gaps. There is no way Hamilton or Alonso or whoever you think could consistently be 3 tenths quicker in Q3 than a Top 10 driver without mechanical or set up problems.

So keep this in mind when you do cross comparisons.
You shouldn't be mystified. We've seen this before, haven't we? Remember when everyone was so convinced that Kimi was the fastest man in F1 and talked about how he would beat Schumacher if Ferrari signed him? F1 fans are always looking for the shiny new object and this new push to lift Max to the same levels as Hamilton is actually quite predictable. Look how quickly people jumped on the Leclerc bandwagon after Bahrain. He was basically being compared to Senna after that.
Law of physics. At the moment we have a bit of a talent vacuum.

sandman1347
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:I am still mystified by the confidence people have when they say Verstappen is as quick as Hamilton and will beat him.

Hamilton is a proven Top driver and has won at least 1 race and scored at least 1 Pole position in any season he has entered since his debut(12 years ago).

Hamilton in the RB of the past years would have had at least 2 pole positions(zero doubt about it).

People need to remember that the "harder" is a car to drive the bigger is usually the gap between the drivers as the team tend to go for the faster driver making his "small" gap even bigger than it really is.

The easier a car is to drive(think Mercedes of these years) the smaller are the gaps. There is no way Hamilton or Alonso or whoever you think could consistently be 3 tenths quicker in Q3 than a Top 10 driver without mechanical or set up problems.

So keep this in mind when you do cross comparisons.
You shouldn't be mystified. We've seen this before, haven't we? Remember when everyone was so convinced that Kimi was the fastest man in F1 and talked about how he would beat Schumacher if Ferrari signed him? F1 fans are always looking for the shiny new object and this new push to lift Max to the same levels as Hamilton is actually quite predictable. Look how quickly people jumped on the Leclerc bandwagon after Bahrain. He was basically being compared to Senna after that.
Law of physics. At the moment we have a bit of a talent vacuum.
Do we? I see no less than four top-tier drivers on the grid at the moment (Hamilton, Verstappen, Vettel, Ricciardo) and several others who have the potential to perhaps be there some day (Leclerc, Norris, Russel). Not to mention quite a few rock solid 2nd tier drivers (Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Kvyat).

There is no talent vacuum. It's the same thing that happened with Kimi and Schumi (for the record, I think Max is clearly a better driver than Kimi ever was). One guy dominates for so long and people want to see someone dethrone him. They then get ahead of themselves.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:I am still mystified by the confidence people have when they say Verstappen is as quick as Hamilton and will beat him.

Hamilton is a proven Top driver and has won at least 1 race and scored at least 1 Pole position in any season he has entered since his debut(12 years ago).

Hamilton in the RB of the past years would have had at least 2 pole positions(zero doubt about it).

People need to remember that the "harder" is a car to drive the bigger is usually the gap between the drivers as the team tend to go for the faster driver making his "small" gap even bigger than it really is.

The easier a car is to drive(think Mercedes of these years) the smaller are the gaps. There is no way Hamilton or Alonso or whoever you think could consistently be 3 tenths quicker in Q3 than a Top 10 driver without mechanical or set up problems.

So keep this in mind when you do cross comparisons.
You shouldn't be mystified. We've seen this before, haven't we? Remember when everyone was so convinced that Kimi was the fastest man in F1 and talked about how he would beat Schumacher if Ferrari signed him? F1 fans are always looking for the shiny new object and this new push to lift Max to the same levels as Hamilton is actually quite predictable. Look how quickly people jumped on the Leclerc bandwagon after Bahrain. He was basically being compared to Senna after that.
Law of physics. At the moment we have a bit of a talent vacuum.
Do we? I see no less than four top-tier drivers on the grid at the moment (Hamilton, Verstappen, Vettel, Ricciardo) and several others who have the potential to perhaps be there some day (Leclerc, Norris, Russel). Not to mention quite a few rock solid 2nd tier drivers (Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Kvyat).

There is no talent vacuum. It's the same thing that happened with Kimi and Schumi (for the record, I think Max is clearly a better driver than Kimi ever was). One guy dominates for so long and people want to see someone dethrone him. They then get ahead of themselves.
At the front end we have less established starts than we did a few years ago - No Alonso, No Button, Kimi proved to be average, Kimi in the midfield, Vettel off form, Ricciardo out paced by Verstappen.

Hamilton is pretty much out there on his own at the moment.

Plenty of drivers have potential to join him.

sandman1347
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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by sandman1347 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
Pullrod wrote:I am still mystified by the confidence people have when they say Verstappen is as quick as Hamilton and will beat him.

Hamilton is a proven Top driver and has won at least 1 race and scored at least 1 Pole position in any season he has entered since his debut(12 years ago).

Hamilton in the RB of the past years would have had at least 2 pole positions(zero doubt about it).

People need to remember that the "harder" is a car to drive the bigger is usually the gap between the drivers as the team tend to go for the faster driver making his "small" gap even bigger than it really is.

The easier a car is to drive(think Mercedes of these years) the smaller are the gaps. There is no way Hamilton or Alonso or whoever you think could consistently be 3 tenths quicker in Q3 than a Top 10 driver without mechanical or set up problems.

So keep this in mind when you do cross comparisons.
You shouldn't be mystified. We've seen this before, haven't we? Remember when everyone was so convinced that Kimi was the fastest man in F1 and talked about how he would beat Schumacher if Ferrari signed him? F1 fans are always looking for the shiny new object and this new push to lift Max to the same levels as Hamilton is actually quite predictable. Look how quickly people jumped on the Leclerc bandwagon after Bahrain. He was basically being compared to Senna after that.
Law of physics. At the moment we have a bit of a talent vacuum.
Do we? I see no less than four top-tier drivers on the grid at the moment (Hamilton, Verstappen, Vettel, Ricciardo) and several others who have the potential to perhaps be there some day (Leclerc, Norris, Russel). Not to mention quite a few rock solid 2nd tier drivers (Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Kvyat).

There is no talent vacuum. It's the same thing that happened with Kimi and Schumi (for the record, I think Max is clearly a better driver than Kimi ever was). One guy dominates for so long and people want to see someone dethrone him. They then get ahead of themselves.
At the front end we have less established starts than we did a few years ago - No Alonso, No Button, Kimi proved to be average, Kimi in the midfield, Vettel off form, Ricciardo out paced by Verstappen.

Hamilton is pretty much out there on his own at the moment.

Plenty of drivers have potential to join him.
The likes of Button and Alonso are replaced by Max and Charles. You said that there was a talent vacuum. I don't see it. There is perhaps a bit of an experience vacuum as Hamilton, Vettel and Raikkonen are really the only guys with a lot of title fights under their belts but, in terms of talent, I think the grid is very strong. There are a lot of youngsters who are very special on the grid at the moment and I think in 10 years time people will look back and say that this was a year with 4-5 multiple WDCs on the grid.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: You shouldn't be mystified. We've seen this before, haven't we? Remember when everyone was so convinced that Kimi was the fastest man in F1 and talked about how he would beat Schumacher if Ferrari signed him? F1 fans are always looking for the shiny new object and this new push to lift Max to the same levels as Hamilton is actually quite predictable. Look how quickly people jumped on the Leclerc bandwagon after Bahrain. He was basically being compared to Senna after that.
Law of physics. At the moment we have a bit of a talent vacuum.
Do we? I see no less than four top-tier drivers on the grid at the moment (Hamilton, Verstappen, Vettel, Ricciardo) and several others who have the potential to perhaps be there some day (Leclerc, Norris, Russel). Not to mention quite a few rock solid 2nd tier drivers (Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Kvyat).

There is no talent vacuum. It's the same thing that happened with Kimi and Schumi (for the record, I think Max is clearly a better driver than Kimi ever was). One guy dominates for so long and people want to see someone dethrone him. They then get ahead of themselves.
At the front end we have less established starts than we did a few years ago - No Alonso, No Button, Kimi proved to be average, Kimi in the midfield, Vettel off form, Ricciardo out paced by Verstappen.

Hamilton is pretty much out there on his own at the moment.

Plenty of drivers have potential to join him.
The likes of Button and Alonso are replaced by Max and Charles. You said that there was a talent vacuum. I don't see it. There is perhaps a bit of an experience vacuum as Hamilton, Vettel and Raikkonen are really the only guys with a lot of title fights under their belts but, in terms of talent, I think the grid is very strong. There are a lot of youngsters who are very special on the grid at the moment and I think in 10 years time people will look back and say that this was a year with 4-5 multiple WDCs on the grid.
Call it an established star vacuum. That's probably more accurate. I watched a race from 2006 and six the other day. The midfield was littered with race winners and guys who had taken a run at a WDC. We don't have those big names through the field right now. As you say, it's a transition period.

We certainly have a lot of potential for a good grid going forwards. I disagree that this years is particularly strong.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by tootsie323 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:Law of physics. At the moment we have a bit of a talent vacuum.
Do we? I see no less than four top-tier drivers on the grid at the moment (Hamilton, Verstappen, Vettel, Ricciardo) and several others who have the potential to perhaps be there some day (Leclerc, Norris, Russel). Not to mention quite a few rock solid 2nd tier drivers (Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Kvyat).

There is no talent vacuum. It's the same thing that happened with Kimi and Schumi (for the record, I think Max is clearly a better driver than Kimi ever was). One guy dominates for so long and people want to see someone dethrone him. They then get ahead of themselves.
At the front end we have less established starts than we did a few years ago - No Alonso, No Button, Kimi proved to be average, Kimi in the midfield, Vettel off form, Ricciardo out paced by Verstappen.

Hamilton is pretty much out there on his own at the moment.

Plenty of drivers have potential to join him.
The likes of Button and Alonso are replaced by Max and Charles. You said that there was a talent vacuum. I don't see it. There is perhaps a bit of an experience vacuum as Hamilton, Vettel and Raikkonen are really the only guys with a lot of title fights under their belts but, in terms of talent, I think the grid is very strong. There are a lot of youngsters who are very special on the grid at the moment and I think in 10 years time people will look back and say that this was a year with 4-5 multiple WDCs on the grid.
Call it an established star vacuum. That's probably more accurate. I watched a race from 2006 and six the other day. The midfield was littered with race winners and guys who had taken a run at a WDC. We don't have those big names through the field right now. As you say, it's a transition period.

We certainly have a lot of potential for a good grid going forwards. I disagree that this years is particularly strong.
I think that today's issue is more that the race winners are only going to come from one, maybe two, at a stretch three cars. That's not the fault, or any lack of talent, of the drivers in general.
Where I'm going, I don't need roads

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

tootsie323 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: Do we? I see no less than four top-tier drivers on the grid at the moment (Hamilton, Verstappen, Vettel, Ricciardo) and several others who have the potential to perhaps be there some day (Leclerc, Norris, Russel). Not to mention quite a few rock solid 2nd tier drivers (Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Kvyat).

There is no talent vacuum. It's the same thing that happened with Kimi and Schumi (for the record, I think Max is clearly a better driver than Kimi ever was). One guy dominates for so long and people want to see someone dethrone him. They then get ahead of themselves.
At the front end we have less established starts than we did a few years ago - No Alonso, No Button, Kimi proved to be average, Kimi in the midfield, Vettel off form, Ricciardo out paced by Verstappen.

Hamilton is pretty much out there on his own at the moment.

Plenty of drivers have potential to join him.
The likes of Button and Alonso are replaced by Max and Charles. You said that there was a talent vacuum. I don't see it. There is perhaps a bit of an experience vacuum as Hamilton, Vettel and Raikkonen are really the only guys with a lot of title fights under their belts but, in terms of talent, I think the grid is very strong. There are a lot of youngsters who are very special on the grid at the moment and I think in 10 years time people will look back and say that this was a year with 4-5 multiple WDCs on the grid.
Call it an established star vacuum. That's probably more accurate. I watched a race from 2006 and six the other day. The midfield was littered with race winners and guys who had taken a run at a WDC. We don't have those big names through the field right now. As you say, it's a transition period.

We certainly have a lot of potential for a good grid going forwards. I disagree that this years is particularly strong.
I think that today's issue is more that the race winners are only going to come from one, maybe two, at a stretch three cars. That's not the fault, or any lack of talent, of the drivers in general.
And the top teams don't seem to change drivers as often.

Yes, talent was on reflection not the right word to use.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by ReservoirDog »

There is no way to know but I get the feeling they'd be very evenly matched. This is coming from my view that LH doesn't leave much on the table, so being 0.1-0.2 faster than him would be really difficult.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
Law of physics. At the moment we have a bit of a talent vacuum.
Do we? I see no less than four top-tier drivers on the grid at the moment (Hamilton, Verstappen, Vettel, Ricciardo) and several others who have the potential to perhaps be there some day (Leclerc, Norris, Russel). Not to mention quite a few rock solid 2nd tier drivers (Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Kvyat).

There is no talent vacuum. It's the same thing that happened with Kimi and Schumi (for the record, I think Max is clearly a better driver than Kimi ever was). One guy dominates for so long and people want to see someone dethrone him. They then get ahead of themselves.
At the front end we have less established starts than we did a few years ago - No Alonso, No Button, Kimi proved to be average, Kimi in the midfield, Vettel off form, Ricciardo out paced by Verstappen.

Hamilton is pretty much out there on his own at the moment.

Plenty of drivers have potential to join him.
The likes of Button and Alonso are replaced by Max and Charles. You said that there was a talent vacuum. I don't see it. There is perhaps a bit of an experience vacuum as Hamilton, Vettel and Raikkonen are really the only guys with a lot of title fights under their belts but, in terms of talent, I think the grid is very strong. There are a lot of youngsters who are very special on the grid at the moment and I think in 10 years time people will look back and say that this was a year with 4-5 multiple WDCs on the grid.
Call it an established star vacuum. That's probably more accurate.I watched a race from 2006 and six the other day. The midfield was littered with race winners and guys who had taken a run at a WDC. We don't have those big names through the field right now. As you say, it's a transition period.

We certainly have a lot of potential for a good grid going forwards. I disagree that this years is particularly strong.
In 2006, drivers who had won a WDC included Villeneuve. The others were Michael Schumacher and Alonso (who was 24 at the time)

In addition to the above, the drivers who had been WDC contenders included Coulthard and Montoya, the other was Kimi.

In addition to the above, and depending at what point in the season, the drivers who won races included Massa, Barrichello, Fisichella, Trulli and Ralf Schumacher, the other was Button.

Now, the 'others' are drivers that I would categorise as unquestionably deserving of their position in that category (although, at the time in 2006, Button's talent was still up for debate)

So I'm saying, Michael, Alonso, Kimi and Button are gimmes for absolute stars. Montoya probably warrants being in there too, and he's a driver I really liked at the time as he was very exciting - but he was somewhat shown up by Kimi at McLaren, although a lot of that was probably affected by Ron's favouritism.

That leaves us with Villeneuve, Coulthard, Massa, Barrichello, Fisichella, Trulli and Ralf. All solid drivers. But where do we rate these against - say Sainz (I picked because he was 10th out of 20 in the rate the drivers poll on this forum, so the median current driver)

Obviously, its a question of opinion, but I would definitely say none of them are substantially better than him, if any are.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by BMWSauber84 »

I wouldn't say there is a talent vacuum by any means. I will say though that the current grid could have looked even stronger had fate smiled on us a little more.

-Had Kubica not had his accident, he would most likely have been one of the top drivers of the last 10 years or so.

-Rosberg retired a few seasons earlier than he might have done.

-Jules Bianchi looked destined for big things before the tragic accident at Suzuka 2014 took his life the following year.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by mikeyg123 »

Alienturnedhuman wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
sandman1347 wrote: Do we? I see no less than four top-tier drivers on the grid at the moment (Hamilton, Verstappen, Vettel, Ricciardo) and several others who have the potential to perhaps be there some day (Leclerc, Norris, Russel). Not to mention quite a few rock solid 2nd tier drivers (Bottas, Perez, Hulk, Kvyat).

There is no talent vacuum. It's the same thing that happened with Kimi and Schumi (for the record, I think Max is clearly a better driver than Kimi ever was). One guy dominates for so long and people want to see someone dethrone him. They then get ahead of themselves.
At the front end we have less established starts than we did a few years ago - No Alonso, No Button, Kimi proved to be average, Kimi in the midfield, Vettel off form, Ricciardo out paced by Verstappen.

Hamilton is pretty much out there on his own at the moment.

Plenty of drivers have potential to join him.
The likes of Button and Alonso are replaced by Max and Charles. You said that there was a talent vacuum. I don't see it. There is perhaps a bit of an experience vacuum as Hamilton, Vettel and Raikkonen are really the only guys with a lot of title fights under their belts but, in terms of talent, I think the grid is very strong. There are a lot of youngsters who are very special on the grid at the moment and I think in 10 years time people will look back and say that this was a year with 4-5 multiple WDCs on the grid.
Call it an established star vacuum. That's probably more accurate.I watched a race from 2006 and six the other day. The midfield was littered with race winners and guys who had taken a run at a WDC. We don't have those big names through the field right now. As you say, it's a transition period.

We certainly have a lot of potential for a good grid going forwards. I disagree that this years is particularly strong.
In 2006, drivers who had won a WDC included Villeneuve. The others were Michael Schumacher and Alonso (who was 24 at the time)

In addition to the above, the drivers who had been WDC contenders included Coulthard and Montoya, the other was Kimi.

In addition to the above, and depending at what point in the season, the drivers who won races included Massa, Barrichello, Fisichella, Trulli and Ralf Schumacher, the other was Button.

Now, the 'others' are drivers that I would categorise as unquestionably deserving of their position in that category (although, at the time in 2006, Button's talent was still up for debate)

So I'm saying, Michael, Alonso, Kimi and Button are gimmes for absolute stars. Montoya probably warrants being in there too, and he's a driver I really liked at the time as he was very exciting - but he was somewhat shown up by Kimi at McLaren, although a lot of that was probably affected by Ron's favouritism.

That leaves us with Villeneuve, Coulthard, Massa, Barrichello, Fisichella, Trulli and Ralf. All solid drivers. But where do we rate these against - say Sainz (I picked because he was 10th out of 20 in the rate the drivers poll on this forum, so the median current driver)

Obviously, its a question of opinion, but I would definitely say none of them are substantially better than him, if any are.
I would pick out a few that I think were definitely better than Sainz. I would say all had a history of some degree of success in F1 behind them. Something that not many on the current grid have. That is really what I meant.

I think if you to list 100 greatest they would all be put ahead of Sainz right now. Obviously by the end of his career that may not be the case.

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Re: How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton? (THREAD SPL

Post by FormulaFun »

Also have to be cautious of drawing a straight line from 2010 - 2019 considering the cars are now completely different

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Johnson
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Re: Who should replace Bottas at Merc

Post by Johnson »

pokerman wrote:
Laz_T800 wrote:
pokerman wrote:
KingVoid wrote:How fast is Verstappen relative to Hamilton?

The Ricciardo/Hulkenberg and Ricciardo/Vettel cross comparisons basically suggest that Verstappen is around 2 tenths quicker than even Hamilton/Alonso tier

I know sounds absurd, but that is what the numbers say.
Yeah I'm aware of that, it's still too early to make those defining conclusion though, Ricciardo out qualifying the Hulk by 9 tenths in Baku is maybe a bit of an outlier that overly weights things towards Ricciardo at this moment in time considering we only have 7 sample cases?

One thing I would say is that it would be hard to make a case for Hamilton being quicker than Verstappen but then again I believe Verstappen will end up as one of the greats of the sport anyway, which we kind of see with him being 5 tenths quicker than Gasly.

It has to be said though that with things that I've read a decision was taken not to go up against Hamilton at Mercedes.
I don't usually see the posts of the user you quoted.
Where does the logic come from that suggests Verstappen is 2 tenths faster than Hamilton?
Genuinely interested as I can't quite fathom how that can be computed by any kind of relevant data that exists?
It's multiple cross references between drivers but at this point far from conclusive with Ricciardo having done only 7 qualifying sessions with the Hulk one of which Ricciardo was 0.9s quicker which he may never repeat again, however in simplistic form:-

Hamilton > Button 0.2s
Button = Perez = Hulkenberg
Ricciardo > Hulkenberg 0.21s
Verstappen > Ricciardo 0.17s
For me that’s way too much cross referencing and layers. I accept simple ones like, Hamilton faster than Bottas. Bottas faster than Massa. Hamilton almost definitely faster than Massa. Hamilton faster than Massa can also be proven via about 10 different methods using various drivers and disproven by I think 0. It’s also pretty obvious. The above can be disproven in quite a few ways.

If you extend the above, it would put Sainz and Norris at Hamiltons level?

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Re: Who should replace Bottas at Merc

Post by KingVoid »

Johnson wrote:If you extend the above, it would put Sainz and Norris at Hamiltons level?
Verstappen was 17 when he went up against Sainz. I get that both were rookies, but Max only had one year of experience in cars, while Sainz took the traditional route to F1.

I don’t think Verstappen fully got up to speed until his third season, which is completely normal given just how young and inexperienced he was when he made his debut.

IMO Max has been the fastest driver on the grid since 2017.

I’ve held this opinion for some time now:
http://forum.planet-f1.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14436

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