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At first glance, it looks to me like Ferrari have actually got the tyres right.

... which almost certainly means that this will be the first race where the Medium is a terrible race tyre and you want the soft.

I see two possibilities for this race. It will either: A. Be the race where things finally click for Ferrari and where the championship begins to become more competitive, or: B. Be the race where Mercedes, having introduced a new engine for the first time all year, disappear into the distance and everyone moves on to silly season discussion.

I think the second option might be more likely. Mercedes are the only team that have yet to introduce a new engine and this race is the one where they plan to do it. I'm expecting a significant performance boost from the car and, if Hamilton wins, you will see the internal battle continue to dissipate. My gut feeling is that neither the other teams nor Bottas can really challenge Hamilton for the full 21 races but I may be wrong about that.

sandman1347 wrote:I see two possibilities for this race. It will either: A. Be the race where things finally click for Ferrari and where the championship begins to become more competitive, or: B. Be the race where Mercedes, having introduced a new engine for the first time all year, disappear into the distance and everyone moves on to silly season discussion.

I think the second option might be more likely. Mercedes are the only team that have yet to introduce a new engine and this race is the one where they plan to do it. I'm expecting a significant performance boost from the car and, if Hamilton wins, you will see the internal battle continue to dissipate. My gut feeling is that neither the other teams nor Bottas can really challenge Hamilton for the full 21 races but I may be wrong about that.

That's true, Canada is when traditionally teams bring these updates. I agree with this assessment, although still hoping for a Ferrari challenge at last.

sandman1347 wrote:I see two possibilities for this race. It will either: A. Be the race where things finally click for Ferrari and where the championship begins to become more competitive, or: B. Be the race where Mercedes, having introduced a new engine for the first time all year, disappear into the distance and everyone moves on to silly season discussion.

I think the second option might be more likely. Mercedes are the only team that have yet to introduce a new engine and this race is the one where they plan to do it. I'm expecting a significant performance boost from the car and, if Hamilton wins, you will see the internal battle continue to dissipate. My gut feeling is that neither the other teams nor Bottas can really challenge Hamilton for the full 21 races but I may be wrong about that.

Yeah I was thinking about how the performance this weekend might pan out. Based on what we've seen, this should be one of Ferrari's stronger tracks I think, but that could just mean they're only 0.2s behind rather than a bigger margin.

We'll see!

Bottas's qualifying pace had been mighty this year. 3 - 3 against Hamilton. All but Spain and Australia have been separated by under 1 tenth of a second. And even in the first race, Bottas was only outqualified by a fraction over that. The only time it has been far more was in Spain by Bottas which was very unexpected. That was known to be a track we expected Hamilton to start getting the better of Bottas, but it didn't happen in qualifying. Canada looks good for both of them, but if Bottas is as good as he had been lately, having excellent previous qualifying sessions here may put pressure on Hamilton. I know Hamilton is also known to love this track, but I'm going to predict Bottas is very likely to out qualify him again here. And if he gets the start, probably win as well. But getting a good start from 1st seems tricky this year.

I am hoping that this weekend, Ferrari won't set Leclerc's strategy to be in service of Sebastian. If the supposedly more powerful Ferrari can run at the front this weekend, I want to see Charles up there near the front and not just running interference for Vettel.

As to the Silver Arrows, I am predicting that Lewis has just begun to get his act together for the year and he will now start to pull away from Valtteri in the championship. Valtteri has (with Mercedes) put his best efforts together mostly in the early part of the year whereas late summer and fall is traditionally where Hamilton's strength is shown.

Lastly I will be interested where Red Bull and the Honda finish this weekend. Christian Horner has bee touting the progress of the Honda P/U and this weekend we should be able to see if they can keep up on a high horse power track.

TheGiantHogweed wrote:Bottas's qualifying pace had been mighty this year. 3 - 3 against Hamilton. All but Spain and Australia have been separated by under 1 tenth of a second. And even in the first race, Bottas was only outqualified by a fraction over that. The only time it has been far more was in Spain by Bottas which was very unexpected. That was known to be a track we expected Hamilton to start getting the better of Bottas, but it didn't happen in qualifying. Canada looks good for both of them, but if Bottas is as good as he had been lately, having excellent previous qualifying sessions here may put pressure on Hamilton. I know Hamilton is also known to love this track, but I'm going to predict Bottas is very likely to out qualify him again here. And if he gets the start, probably win as well. But getting a good start from 1st seems tricky this year.

I hate to say it but I seriously doubt that. For me, Monaco was a massive opportunity for Valteri if he really wants to challenge Lewis for the championship this year. That was a track where Valteri is actually quite strong and where Lewis is a bit inconsistent. It's also a track where setting the pole would have meant a likely win for Valteri regardless of race pace. Those are the important ones for Valteri because they are his best opportunities to win. I think losing out to Lewis there was a bigger deal for his momentum than people realize. I expect Lewis to begin clicking on all cylinders now. He is very strong in Montreal and I think we will see one of those laps that he does from time to time to just blow everyone away. Might be wrong about that but that's my feeling.

JN23 wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:I see two possibilities for this race. It will either: A. Be the race where things finally click for Ferrari and where the championship begins to become more competitive, or: B. Be the race where Mercedes, having introduced a new engine for the first time all year, disappear into the distance and everyone moves on to silly season discussion.

I think the second option might be more likely. Mercedes are the only team that have yet to introduce a new engine and this race is the one where they plan to do it. I'm expecting a significant performance boost from the car and, if Hamilton wins, you will see the internal battle continue to dissipate. My gut feeling is that neither the other teams nor Bottas can really challenge Hamilton for the full 21 races but I may be wrong about that.

Yeah I was thinking about how the performance this weekend might pan out. Based on what we've seen, this should be one of Ferrari's stronger tracks I think, but that could just mean they're only 0.2s behind rather than a bigger margin.

We'll see!

The track seems to be tailor made for Ferrari. Only sector 1 should be troublesome for them. Their straight line speed advantage should make a difference here, but like you said it might not be enough.

But this track is supposed to be power sensitive, yet Max qualified and finished 3rd there last year on merit with his underpowered Redbull.

kleefton wrote:

JN23 wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:I see two possibilities for this race. It will either: A. Be the race where things finally click for Ferrari and where the championship begins to become more competitive, or: B. Be the race where Mercedes, having introduced a new engine for the first time all year, disappear into the distance and everyone moves on to silly season discussion.

I think the second option might be more likely. Mercedes are the only team that have yet to introduce a new engine and this race is the one where they plan to do it. I'm expecting a significant performance boost from the car and, if Hamilton wins, you will see the internal battle continue to dissipate. My gut feeling is that neither the other teams nor Bottas can really challenge Hamilton for the full 21 races but I may be wrong about that.

Yeah I was thinking about how the performance this weekend might pan out. Based on what we've seen, this should be one of Ferrari's stronger tracks I think, but that could just mean they're only 0.2s behind rather than a bigger margin.

We'll see!

The track seems to be tailor made for Ferrari. Only sector 1 should be troublesome for them. Their straight line speed advantage should make a difference here, but like you said it might not be enough.

But this track is supposed to be power sensitive, yet Max qualified and finished 3rd there last year on merit with his underpowered Redbull.

I'm not so sure they will maintain that advantage with Mercedes introducing an upgraded PU. At the very least, the gap will narrow and traction is every bit as important as top speed in Canada anyway. At this point, I'd be a little surprised if Ferrari turn out to have the edge.

sandman1347 wrote:

TheGiantHogweed wrote:Bottas's qualifying pace had been mighty this year. 3 - 3 against Hamilton. All but Spain and Australia have been separated by under 1 tenth of a second. And even in the first race, Bottas was only outqualified by a fraction over that. The only time it has been far more was in Spain by Bottas which was very unexpected. That was known to be a track we expected Hamilton to start getting the better of Bottas, but it didn't happen in qualifying. Canada looks good for both of them, but if Bottas is as good as he had been lately, having excellent previous qualifying sessions here may put pressure on Hamilton. I know Hamilton is also known to love this track, but I'm going to predict Bottas is very likely to out qualify him again here. And if he gets the start, probably win as well. But getting a good start from 1st seems tricky this year.

I hate to say it but I seriously doubt that. For me, Monaco was a massive opportunity for Valteri if he really wants to challenge Lewis for the championship this year. That was a track where Valteri is actually quite strong and where Lewis is a bit inconsistent. It's also a track where setting the pole would have meant a likely win for Valteri regardless of race pace. Those are the important ones for Valteri because they are his best opportunities to win. I think losing out to Lewis there was a bigger deal for his momentum than people realize. I expect Lewis to begin clicking on all cylinders now. He is very strong in Montreal and I think we will see one of those laps that he does from time to time to just blow everyone away. Might be wrong about that but that's my feeling.

Monaco was a major lost opportunity for Valtteri. The history of Lewis with Merc is that the deeper into the season Lewis gets, the more focused on winning he becomes. He almost caught Nico in 2016 and IIRC has outpaced all his rivals after the summer break since he started winning championships with Mercedes. I don't see any significant "opportunities" for Valtteri to gain much ground on any consistent basis for the rest of this year.

sandman1347 wrote:

TheGiantHogweed wrote:Bottas's qualifying pace had been mighty this year. 3 - 3 against Hamilton. All but Spain and Australia have been separated by under 1 tenth of a second. And even in the first race, Bottas was only outqualified by a fraction over that. The only time it has been far more was in Spain by Bottas which was very unexpected. That was known to be a track we expected Hamilton to start getting the better of Bottas, but it didn't happen in qualifying. Canada looks good for both of them, but if Bottas is as good as he had been lately, having excellent previous qualifying sessions here may put pressure on Hamilton. I know Hamilton is also known to love this track, but I'm going to predict Bottas is very likely to out qualify him again here. And if he gets the start, probably win as well. But getting a good start from 1st seems tricky this year.

I hate to say it but I seriously doubt that. For me, Monaco was a massive opportunity for Valteri if he really wants to challenge Lewis for the championship this year. That was a track where Valteri is actually quite strong and where Lewis is a bit inconsistent. It's also a track where setting the pole would have meant a likely win for Valteri regardless of race pace. Those are the important ones for Valteri because they are his best opportunities to win. I think losing out to Lewis there was a bigger deal for his momentum than people realize. I expect Lewis to begin clicking on all cylinders now. He is very strong in Montreal and I think we will see one of those laps that he does from time to time to just blow everyone away. Might be wrong about that but that's my feeling.

What could he have done better with during the race? According to Mercedes, It was Hamilton hitting a wheel gun that prevented Bottas getting 2nd. Bottas had a very comfortable gap in qualifying to begin with and Hamilton just managed to find that tiny bit extra. Out of the top 5, Hamilton was the only one to improve on his first run. Hamilton was not strong at all in Canada last year. This is certainly a strong track for both on the whole and just don't see it being any more likely that Hamilton will beat him if Bottas gets pole and a good start. I don't think that it exactly incredibly unlikely.

You would have thought Hamilton would find a way past at Baku, but he didn't. I don't think this track will be any easier.
I'm only thinking this is possible based on Bottas's qualifying performance which easily has matched Hamilton this year and we are now 6 races in. Overtaking the same car is very difficult. So if Bottas does what I am thinking he may be able to (outqualify Hamilton) , i certainly see it as a very possible win.

TheGiantHogweed wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:

TheGiantHogweed wrote:Bottas's qualifying pace had been mighty this year. 3 - 3 against Hamilton. All but Spain and Australia have been separated by under 1 tenth of a second. And even in the first race, Bottas was only outqualified by a fraction over that. The only time it has been far more was in Spain by Bottas which was very unexpected. That was known to be a track we expected Hamilton to start getting the better of Bottas, but it didn't happen in qualifying. Canada looks good for both of them, but if Bottas is as good as he had been lately, having excellent previous qualifying sessions here may put pressure on Hamilton. I know Hamilton is also known to love this track, but I'm going to predict Bottas is very likely to out qualify him again here. And if he gets the start, probably win as well. But getting a good start from 1st seems tricky this year.

I hate to say it but I seriously doubt that. For me, Monaco was a massive opportunity for Valteri if he really wants to challenge Lewis for the championship this year. That was a track where Valteri is actually quite strong and where Lewis is a bit inconsistent. It's also a track where setting the pole would have meant a likely win for Valteri regardless of race pace. Those are the important ones for Valteri because they are his best opportunities to win. I think losing out to Lewis there was a bigger deal for his momentum than people realize. I expect Lewis to begin clicking on all cylinders now. He is very strong in Montreal and I think we will see one of those laps that he does from time to time to just blow everyone away. Might be wrong about that but that's my feeling.

What could he have done better with during the race? According to Mercedes, It was Hamilton hitting a wheel gun that prevented Bottas getting 2nd. Bottas had a very comfortable gap in qualifying to begin with and Hamilton just managed to find that tiny bit extra. Out of the top 5, Hamilton was the only one to improve on his first run. Hamilton was not strong at all in Canada last year. This is certainly a strong track for both on the whole and just don't see it being any more likely that Hamilton will beat him if Bottas gets pole and a good start. I don't think that it exactly incredibly unlikely.

You would have thought Hamilton would find a way past at Baku, but he didn't. I don't think this track will be any easier.
I'm only thinking this is possible based on Bottas's qualifying performance which easily has matched Hamilton this year and we are now 6 races in. Overtaking the same car is very difficult. So if Bottas does what I am thinking he may be able to (outqualify Hamilton) , i certainly see it as a very possible win.

Given Vettel's overheating issues I was surprised Bottas wasn't all over Vettel trying to push him into the back of Verstappen.

TheGiantHogweed wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:

TheGiantHogweed wrote:Bottas's qualifying pace had been mighty this year. 3 - 3 against Hamilton. All but Spain and Australia have been separated by under 1 tenth of a second. And even in the first race, Bottas was only outqualified by a fraction over that. The only time it has been far more was in Spain by Bottas which was very unexpected. That was known to be a track we expected Hamilton to start getting the better of Bottas, but it didn't happen in qualifying. Canada looks good for both of them, but if Bottas is as good as he had been lately, having excellent previous qualifying sessions here may put pressure on Hamilton. I know Hamilton is also known to love this track, but I'm going to predict Bottas is very likely to out qualify him again here. And if he gets the start, probably win as well. But getting a good start from 1st seems tricky this year.

I hate to say it but I seriously doubt that. For me, Monaco was a massive opportunity for Valteri if he really wants to challenge Lewis for the championship this year. That was a track where Valteri is actually quite strong and where Lewis is a bit inconsistent. It's also a track where setting the pole would have meant a likely win for Valteri regardless of race pace. Those are the important ones for Valteri because they are his best opportunities to win. I think losing out to Lewis there was a bigger deal for his momentum than people realize. I expect Lewis to begin clicking on all cylinders now. He is very strong in Montreal and I think we will see one of those laps that he does from time to time to just blow everyone away. Might be wrong about that but that's my feeling.

What could he have done better with during the race? According to Mercedes, It was Hamilton hitting a wheel gun that prevented Bottas getting 2nd. Bottas had a very comfortable gap in qualifying to begin with and Hamilton just managed to find that tiny bit extra. Out of the top 5, Hamilton was the only one to improve on his first run. Hamilton was not strong at all in Canada last year. This is certainly a strong track for both on the whole and just don't see it being any more likely that Hamilton will beat him if Bottas gets pole and a good start. I don't think that it exactly incredibly unlikely.

You would have thought Hamilton would find a way past at Baku, but he didn't. I don't think this track will be any easier.
I'm only thinking this is possible based on Bottas's qualifying performance which easily has matched Hamilton this year and we are now 6 races in. Overtaking the same car is very difficult. So if Bottas does what I am thinking he may be able to (outqualify Hamilton) , i certainly see it as a very possible win.

You do this every year. Have you really not seen a pattern yet? I think Baku is a much harder place to follow another car through the middle sector than Montreal. I don't think that Bottas will win out in qualifying but, if he does, I don't think it will be enough

As much though I am the first to say that Valteri is having his best season in F1 so far; I don't think it's that much of a deviation from the previous two years in terms of his relative level of performance in the first few rounds. Only his bad luck has changed. He has always done quite well early in the year at Mercedes and Hamilton has always taken a few races to get to his maximum. I don't see this year playing out any differently. You point out that Hamilton had a bad race in Montreal last year but neglect to mention that he has won there 6 times! It's one of his strongest tracks and last year was an anomaly. I don't agree with your assessment.

Bottas has beaten Hamilton in just one more quali session this year than this time last year. There is a minor up turn in his year on year performance. Most of the reason he looks so much better is that he is in a dominant car for the first time.

TheGiantHogweed wrote:Bottas's qualifying pace had been mighty this year. 3 - 3 against Hamilton. All but Spain and Australia have been separated by under 1 tenth of a second. And even in the first race, Bottas was only outqualified by a fraction over that. The only time it has been far more was in Spain by Bottas which was very unexpected. That was known to be a track we expected Hamilton to start getting the better of Bottas, but it didn't happen in qualifying. Canada looks good for both of them, but if Bottas is as good as he had been lately, having excellent previous qualifying sessions here may put pressure on Hamilton. I know Hamilton is also known to love this track, but I'm going to predict Bottas is very likely to out qualify him again here. And if he gets the start, probably win as well. But getting a good start from 1st seems tricky this year.

This strikes as such a bizarre post. To me "very likely" translates to something like an obvious favourite, or that it would be shocking if it didn't happen. And what would endow you with such confidence other than backing your favourite driver?

Definitely curious about that one. Going by general career history one would be inclined to say that Hamilton is likely (notice the omission of the word very) to qualify ahead of Bottas.

Invade wrote:

TheGiantHogweed wrote:Bottas's qualifying pace had been mighty this year. 3 - 3 against Hamilton. All but Spain and Australia have been separated by under 1 tenth of a second. And even in the first race, Bottas was only outqualified by a fraction over that. The only time it has been far more was in Spain by Bottas which was very unexpected. That was known to be a track we expected Hamilton to start getting the better of Bottas, but it didn't happen in qualifying. Canada looks good for both of them, but if Bottas is as good as he had been lately, having excellent previous qualifying sessions here may put pressure on Hamilton. I know Hamilton is also known to love this track, but I'm going to predict Bottas is very likely to out qualify him again here. And if he gets the start, probably win as well. But getting a good start from 1st seems tricky this year.

This strikes as such a bizarre post. To me "very likely" translates to something like an obvious favourite, or that it would be shocking if it didn't happen. And what would endow you with such confidence other than backing your favourite driver?

Definitely curious about that one. Going by general career history one would be inclined to say that Hamilton is likely (notice the omission of the word very) to qualify ahead of Bottas.

Maybe I should have just said "I think he will manage to out qualify Hamilton again" or "very possible"

Both Bottas and Hamilton have impressive history here and I didn't really go into detail about either. I am aware Hamilton has had many wins here, But Bottas has also had a podium every race since 2015 and his qualifying in 2013 can't really be forgotten. I think everyone should have realised now that I clearly am a fan of Bottas, but it is not because of that that change my view on him.
And despite others thinking Bottas is only slightly closer to Hamilton in qualifying compared to the last 2 years at the start of the season, so far I think it is a fair bit closer. Bottas didn't make a huge mistake in one of them this year, nor have Hamilton do the same in the other (monaco 2017). And given Bottas surprised us at Spain when many expected Hamilton to start getting the better of him, I don't think it would be that bold to say he has a strong chance again at a track he always looks good at. (i'm not ignoring that Hamilton is very good here too though - i personally just think Bottas looks equal so far this year)

I feel like (maybe this is wishful thinking) this may be the race where we get a lot of wheel to wheel action and things might get fiesty between bottas and Hamilton.

Bottas quali form is superb and he is really decent round Montreal.

Bottas on pole, closely followed by Hamilton, Merc to have pulled away a decent chunk further from Ferrari

The race will see a tight battle with wheel to wheel racing between Hamilton and Bottas, victor is gonna be too close to call or a DNF for one driver following pushing too hard or collision

BOOK IT

FormulaFun wrote:I feel like (maybe this is wishful thinking) this may be the race where we get a lot of wheel to wheel action and things might get fiesty between bottas and Hamilton.

Bottas quali form is superb and he is really decent round Montreal.

Bottas on pole, closely followed by Hamilton, Merc to have pulled away a decent chunk further from Ferrari

The race will see a tight battle with wheel to wheel racing between Hamilton and Bottas, victor is gonna be too close to call or a DNF for one driver following pushing too hard or collision

BOOK IT

Name your price. I'll bet you any amount of money that things do not play out like this.

sandman1347 wrote:

FormulaFun wrote:I feel like (maybe this is wishful thinking) this may be the race where we get a lot of wheel to wheel action and things might get fiesty between bottas and Hamilton.

Bottas quali form is superb and he is really decent round Montreal.

Bottas on pole, closely followed by Hamilton, Merc to have pulled away a decent chunk further from Ferrari

The race will see a tight battle with wheel to wheel racing between Hamilton and Bottas, victor is gonna be too close to call or a DNF for one driver following pushing too hard or collision

BOOK IT

Name your price. I'll bet you any amount of money that things do not play out like this.

Last year if anyone remembers, it was quite a boring race, which is so rare at this track.

This is the race where Mercedes introduces their new engine spec, so I expect them to be clearly ahead of Ferrari, so a Mercedes 1-2 is likely. Even so, I don't think we will get a fight between their 2 drivers here, especially as the track puts some serious strain on the components, and I don't think they want to risk a failure or a collision. Maybe, maybe if they will have a serious lead over the other teams in the second half of the season, and if Hamilton and Bottas will be close enough in the points, they will start to let them fight it out, but I expect Hamilton to have a substantial lead over Bottas by then. Also for this race, I expect Hamilton to beat Bottas as he started to gain some momentum in the last couple of races.
Ferrari I expect to be second, clearly behind Mercedes, but also clearly ahead of RBR because of their engine, while RBR will be third.
The midfield battle might be interesting. I expect Haas to be strong (probably best of the rest) because of the Ferrari engine, and also Alfa Romeo might be stronger here.
I think Renault has the weakest engine at the moment, so I expect the Renault engined teams (Renault and McLaren) to struggle a bit here.
I don't know if only Mercedes gets the new engine spec, or is it also their customers. If Racing Point and Williams also get the new Mercedes engine spec, then I would expect Racing Point to also be a bit stronger here than in the last couple of races, while Williams might get a bit closer to the rest of the field, also because of the track layout (still last though).
STR I don't really know where to place...
As I see, there is no rain predicted for this weekend, but Sunday is expected to be a bit warmer than Friday and Saturday, so some teams might get caught out on setup or cooling.

paul85 wrote:This is the race where Mercedes introduces their new engine spec, so I expect them to be clearly ahead of Ferrari, so a Mercedes 1-2 is likely. Even so, I don't think we will get a fight between their 2 drivers here, especially as the track puts some serious strain on the components, and I don't think they want to risk a failure or a collision. Maybe, maybe if they will have a serious lead over the other teams in the second half of the season, and if Hamilton and Bottas will be close enough in the points, they will start to let them fight it out, but I expect Hamilton to have a substantial lead over Bottas by then. Also for this race, I expect Hamilton to beat Bottas as he started to gain some momentum in the last couple of races.
Ferrari I expect to be second, clearly behind Mercedes, but also clearly ahead of RBR because of their engine, while RBR will be third.
The midfield battle might be interesting. I expect Haas to be strong (probably best of the rest) because of the Ferrari engine, and also Alfa Romeo might be stronger here.
I think Renault has the weakest engine at the moment, so I expect the Renault engined teams (Renault and McLaren) to struggle a bit here.
I don't know if only Mercedes gets the new engine spec, or is it also their customers. If Racing Point and Williams also get the new Mercedes engine spec, then I would expect Racing Point to also be a bit stronger here than in the last couple of races, while Williams might get a bit closer to the rest of the field, also because of the track layout (still last though).
STR I don't really know where to place...
As I see, there is no rain predicted for this weekend, but Sunday is expected to be a bit warmer than Friday and Saturday, so some teams might get caught out on setup or cooling.

I don't understand why thought is given to Hamilton and Bottas crashing into one another in the heat of battle, Bottas is not Rosberg, this is a different dynamic.

It was only known Mercedes would be getting the upgraded engine but now it's confirmed Racing Point & Williams too will be getting the upgraded engine. Good news for both customer teams.
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merc ... p/4448468/

UnlikeUday wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:

FormulaFun wrote:I feel like (maybe this is wishful thinking) this may be the race where we get a lot of wheel to wheel action and things might get fiesty between bottas and Hamilton.

Bottas quali form is superb and he is really decent round Montreal.

Bottas on pole, closely followed by Hamilton, Merc to have pulled away a decent chunk further from Ferrari

The race will see a tight battle with wheel to wheel racing between Hamilton and Bottas, victor is gonna be too close to call or a DNF for one driver following pushing too hard or collision

BOOK IT

Name your price. I'll bet you any amount of money that things do not play out like this.

Last year if anyone remembers, it was quite a boring race, which is so rare at this track.

That is true but that's not the reason I don't see this battle transpiring. The fact is that there has never been a tight wheel to wheel battle between Bottas and Hamilton because as soon as Hamilton gets in front of Bottas; the battle is over.

Hamilton has form at this track. He either wins it or he crashes out. For that reason the only way Bottas is in with a chance is if Hamilton retires.

angrypirate wrote:Hamilton has form at this track. He either wins it or he crashes out. For that reason the only way Bottas is in with a chance is if Hamilton retires.

3rd in 2013 and 5th last year

Zero chances of rain. Just checked it.

sandman1347 wrote:

kleefton wrote:

JN23 wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:I see two possibilities for this race. It will either: A. Be the race where things finally click for Ferrari and where the championship begins to become more competitive, or: B. Be the race where Mercedes, having introduced a new engine for the first time all year, disappear into the distance and everyone moves on to silly season discussion.

I think the second option might be more likely. Mercedes are the only team that have yet to introduce a new engine and this race is the one where they plan to do it. I'm expecting a significant performance boost from the car and, if Hamilton wins, you will see the internal battle continue to dissipate. My gut feeling is that neither the other teams nor Bottas can really challenge Hamilton for the full 21 races but I may be wrong about that.

Yeah I was thinking about how the performance this weekend might pan out. Based on what we've seen, this should be one of Ferrari's stronger tracks I think, but that could just mean they're only 0.2s behind rather than a bigger margin.

We'll see!

The track seems to be tailor made for Ferrari. Only sector 1 should be troublesome for them. Their straight line speed advantage should make a difference here, but like you said it might not be enough.

But this track is supposed to be power sensitive, yet Max qualified and finished 3rd there last year on merit with his underpowered Redbull.

I'm not so sure they will maintain that advantage with Mercedes introducing an upgraded PU. At the very least, the gap will narrow and traction is every bit as important as top speed in Canada anyway. At this point, I'd be a little surprised if Ferrari turn out to have the edge.

Engine upgrades are overrated nowadays, there is not much left to find when you have a Ferrari or a Merc power unit. I dont' think it will change the fact that Ferrari is faster in a straight line. I think Ferrari's aero is the major reason why they are so fast in the straights anyway. I think it will be close and Ferrari might come up on top. It all depends on what kind of deficit Ferrari will have in the first sector, if they are not too far behind there, I think they have a chance at beating Merc here, as I think they will dominate the other 2 sectors. We shall see.

Racing Point upgrades for Canada:


Source - https://scontent.fbom16-1.fna.fbcdn.net ... e=5D57A8C4


Source - https://scontent.fbom16-1.fna.fbcdn.net ... e=5D960DC0

https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433 ... -strengths

"Simulation based upon Baku suggests that the Ferrari should be making up around 0.7s on the Mercs down the Montreal straights - and there are doubts about whether the cars spend enough time in the corners for the Mercedes to be able to make all of that back up.

Montreal vies with Monza as the least downforce-sensitive track on the calendar - i.e an increase in downforce buys you less lap time than at any other track, around 30 per cent less than it buys at Barcelona, for example.

That said, most of the corners are fairly slow speed, and this is where the Merc's grip advantage over the Ferrari is at its greatest. It's probably going to be very tight over the lap."

F1_Ernie wrote:https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433 ... -strengths

"Simulation based upon Baku suggests that the Ferrari should be making up around 0.7s on the Mercs down the Montreal straights - and there are doubts about whether the cars spend enough time in the corners for the Mercedes to be able to make all of that back up.

Montreal vies with Monza as the least downforce-sensitive track on the calendar - i.e an increase in downforce buys you less lap time than at any other track, around 30 per cent less than it buys at Barcelona, for example.

That said, most of the corners are fairly slow speed, and this is where the Merc's grip advantage over the Ferrari is at its greatest. It's probably going to be very tight over the lap."

This Ferrari is 7/10th faster than Merc on the straight due to simulation is ridiculous not even in Bahrain were they that fast which is the fastest they have been. Very soon it will get to a second it started at 5/10ths.

This speed didn't materialise in China with the twin straights, the continuous reference to Leclerc being faster in Q2, whilst in the race was no faster than Gasly is laughable.

Rockie wrote:

F1_Ernie wrote:https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433 ... -strengths

"Simulation based upon Baku suggests that the Ferrari should be making up around 0.7s on the Mercs down the Montreal straights - and there are doubts about whether the cars spend enough time in the corners for the Mercedes to be able to make all of that back up.

Montreal vies with Monza as the least downforce-sensitive track on the calendar - i.e an increase in downforce buys you less lap time than at any other track, around 30 per cent less than it buys at Barcelona, for example.

That said, most of the corners are fairly slow speed, and this is where the Merc's grip advantage over the Ferrari is at its greatest. It's probably going to be very tight over the lap."

This Ferrari is 7/10th faster than Merc on the straight due to simulation is ridiculous not even in Bahrain were they that fast which is the fastest they have been. Very soon it will get to a second it started at 5/10ths.

This speed didn't materialise in China with the twin straights, the continuous reference to Leclerc being faster in Q2, whilst in the race was no faster than Gasly is laughable.

You don't understand it varies from track to track and you don't believe the Ferrari is faster on the straights?

All that's being said is that the track should help Ferrari moreso than most other tracks but I don't believe anyone is saying categorically that Ferrari will be the quickest or that Mercedes will not be the quickest?

Before being faster or stronger or this or that, Ferrari winning supposes they display a perfect week-end, from today to sunday afternoon, qualification and race strategies included... What we've seen during the last 18 months doesn't leave too much space for optimism.

Harpo wrote:Before being faster or stronger or this or that, Ferrari winning suppose they display a perfect week-end, from today to sunday afternoon, qualification and race strategies included... What we've seen during the last 18 months doesn't leave to much space for optimism.

True. On Sundays, Mercedes are in a league of their own.

sandman1347 wrote:

UnlikeUday wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:

FormulaFun wrote:I feel like (maybe this is wishful thinking) this may be the race where we get a lot of wheel to wheel action and things might get fiesty between bottas and Hamilton.

Bottas quali form is superb and he is really decent round Montreal.

Bottas on pole, closely followed by Hamilton, Merc to have pulled away a decent chunk further from Ferrari

The race will see a tight battle with wheel to wheel racing between Hamilton and Bottas, victor is gonna be too close to call or a DNF for one driver following pushing too hard or collision

BOOK IT

Name your price. I'll bet you any amount of money that things do not play out like this.

Last year if anyone remembers, it was quite a boring race, which is so rare at this track.

That is true but that's not the reason I don't see this battle transpiring. The fact is that there has never been a tight wheel to wheel battle between Bottas and Hamilton because as soon as Hamilton gets in front of Bottas; the battle is over.

Usually the battle is over regardless of who is in front.

pokerman wrote:

Rockie wrote:

F1_Ernie wrote:https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433 ... -strengths

"Simulation based upon Baku suggests that the Ferrari should be making up around 0.7s on the Mercs down the Montreal straights - and there are doubts about whether the cars spend enough time in the corners for the Mercedes to be able to make all of that back up.

Montreal vies with Monza as the least downforce-sensitive track on the calendar - i.e an increase in downforce buys you less lap time than at any other track, around 30 per cent less than it buys at Barcelona, for example.

That said, most of the corners are fairly slow speed, and this is where the Merc's grip advantage over the Ferrari is at its greatest. It's probably going to be very tight over the lap."

This Ferrari is 7/10th faster than Merc on the straight due to simulation is ridiculous not even in Bahrain were they that fast which is the fastest they have been. Very soon it will get to a second it started at 5/10ths.

This speed didn't materialise in China with the twin straights, the continuous reference to Leclerc being faster in Q2, whilst in the race was no faster than Gasly is laughable.

You don't understand it varies from track to track and you don't believe the Ferrari is faster on the straights?

All that's being said is that the track should help Ferrari moreso than most other tracks but I don't believe anyone is saying categorically that Ferrari will be the quickest or that Mercedes will not be the quickest?

There is nothing to understand here, this is what the article is saying.

Point me to a race weekend where Ferrari was 5/10th faster than Mercedes in Q3 or the race, because using practice is same as using it on testing performance.

Are to believe Mercedes now has 1.7s advantage over Ferrari through the corners?

Covalent wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:

UnlikeUday wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:

FormulaFun wrote:I feel like (maybe this is wishful thinking) this may be the race where we get a lot of wheel to wheel action and things might get fiesty between bottas and Hamilton.

Bottas quali form is superb and he is really decent round Montreal.

Bottas on pole, closely followed by Hamilton, Merc to have pulled away a decent chunk further from Ferrari

The race will see a tight battle with wheel to wheel racing between Hamilton and Bottas, victor is gonna be too close to call or a DNF for one driver following pushing too hard or collision

BOOK IT

Name your price. I'll bet you any amount of money that things do not play out like this.

Last year if anyone remembers, it was quite a boring race, which is so rare at this track.

That is true but that's not the reason I don't see this battle transpiring. The fact is that there has never been a tight wheel to wheel battle between Bottas and Hamilton because as soon as Hamilton gets in front of Bottas; the battle is over.

Usually the battle is over regardless of who is in front.

No there have been several times where Hamilton has passed Bottas on track. I cannot think of one time (other than at a start) where Bottas has overtaken Hamilton on track.

Lt. Drebin wrote:Zero chances of rain. Just checked it.

Shocker, there hasn't been a wet start since they changed the rules about reforming the grid after the safety car.

FP1 done:


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