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Before Abu Dhabi 2016 Hamilton was generally unlucky. Especially the Mclaren years and 2016.

2017 onwards, everything has kind of fallen for him. He has 1 mechanical DNF in the last 43 races. The last 4 races he has actually inherited 2 wins, amazingly. He inherited one win during his entire Mclaren career and lost about 6 or 7. Rain has come and saved him at times when it looked like Vettel would dominate such as Germany 2018 and Hungary 2018. Lately he has been quite ... blessed

I don’t know if Leclerc will win the drivers title this year, but what I do know is that his driving looked and felt mature, fair, and CLEAN! Unlike anudder yoot, I feel the veteran drivers feel comfortable going wheel to wheel with him and can squeeze one another without worrying they’re going to get smashed.

That automatically earns my respect because it’s easy to blatantly force someone wide to maintain position or “drift” into them to ensure they stay behind and think twice about making another attempt on passing you, and that welcomes great on-track battles for everyone to enjoy.

On the subject of drivers getting better as the season progresses, that’s an unquantifiable FACT because each year the drivers are faced with LEARNING the characteristics of each car they drive, and it takes time. And even if say a driver wrecks his car and the team has to provide a new one built to identical specs, that new car will unquestionably have unique characteristics that cause it to drive slightly different than any other car the team builds to spec. It’s simply the nature of the beast, so drivers do improve over the course of a season. But it’s because they’re constantly pushing themselves to find the limit while at the same thing learning how their cars behave tontheir input, and that all improves over time..

Not a bad shout, a bit early for me but it would be nice to have a new generation champion. Really set down the gauntlet for a Leclerc/Verstappen rivalry which my gut tells me will be an epic one between two of the best drivers we will ever see.

I'll give it a few more races to see on average how he compares with Vettel, on average how Ferrari compare with Mercedes and importantly how Ferrari manage their reliability issues, but I hope to join you in 3-4 races time.

Zoue wrote:

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

Really? We're going back 8 years?

I'm not saying he's never had bad luck. I'm saying that recently he's been pretty fortunate that things have fallen his way when it looked like he was up against it.

What fell his way in 2016?

Leclerc has enough on his plate competing with a quadruple champion, his chances versus a quintuple champion without Vettel being driven out of the team (I am certain Vettel would leave if team orders were consistently used against him) is very slight indeed.

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

Really? We're going back 8 years?

I'm not saying he's never had bad luck. I'm saying that recently he's been pretty fortunate that things have fallen his way when it looked like he was up against it.

What fell his way in 2016?

Why?

sandman1347 wrote:

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

Lewis could very realistically have 7 WDCs already with better "luck". Making someone out to be "lucky" is always a red herring.

Indeed. I remember back in the day everyone used to say Schumacher was lucky as well. Ultimately if you're running towards the front a lot of the time then you're going to inherit a number of wins from others' misfortune.

Hamilton has had plenty of poor luck through his career as well. The weird gearbox glitch in Brazil that cost him in 2007, unreliability in 2016, pretty much everything in 2012. Even the 2010 title he lost by fewer points than he lost with that last lap wheel failure in Spain. Generally it all balances out in the end.

j man wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

Lewis could very realistically have 7 WDCs already with better "luck". Making someone out to be "lucky" is always a red herring.

Indeed. I remember back in the day everyone used to say Schumacher was lucky as well. Ultimately if you're running towards the front a lot of the time then you're going to inherit a number of wins from others' misfortune.

Hamilton has had plenty of poor luck through his career as well. The weird gearbox glitch in Brazil that cost him in 2007, unreliability in 2016, pretty much everything in 2012. Even the 2010 title he lost by fewer points than he lost with that last lap wheel failure in Spain. Generally it all balances out in the end.

And this heavy rain in the second part of the last lap in Interlagos 2008 was such a bad luck You can say that luck took away title from him in 2007 but gave it back year later so it's even

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

and if it weren't for a bit of good luck in Brazil 2008, he'd only have 4 now. It works both ways usually.

Blake wrote:

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

and if it weren't for a bit of good luck in Brazil 2008, he'd only have 4 now. It works both ways usually.

I think that's exactly the point "trento" is making. Hamilton has had good and bad luck over his career. He's certainly in a lucky phase at the moment.

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

Really? We're going back 8 years?

I'm not saying he's never had bad luck. I'm saying that recently he's been pretty fortunate that things have fallen his way when it looked like he was up against it.

What fell his way in 2016?

Why?

You don't think that Hamilton had bad luck in 2016, that wasn't 8 years ago?

Mayox wrote:

j man wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

Lewis could very realistically have 7 WDCs already with better "luck". Making someone out to be "lucky" is always a red herring.

Indeed. I remember back in the day everyone used to say Schumacher was lucky as well. Ultimately if you're running towards the front a lot of the time then you're going to inherit a number of wins from others' misfortune.

Hamilton has had plenty of poor luck through his career as well. The weird gearbox glitch in Brazil that cost him in 2007, unreliability in 2016, pretty much everything in 2012. Even the 2010 title he lost by fewer points than he lost with that last lap wheel failure in Spain. Generally it all balances out in the end.

And this heavy rain in the second part of the last lap in Interlagos 2008 was such a bad luck You can say that luck took away title from him in 2007 but gave it back year later so it's even

He would have been "unlucky" had Glock finished ahead of him because Glock gambled to stay out on dry tires. The gamble actually paid off because Glock finished ahead of Kovaleinen despite being behind him before the rain came down.

Mayox wrote:

j man wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

Lewis could very realistically have 7 WDCs already with better "luck". Making someone out to be "lucky" is always a red herring.

Indeed. I remember back in the day everyone used to say Schumacher was lucky as well. Ultimately if you're running towards the front a lot of the time then you're going to inherit a number of wins from others' misfortune.

Hamilton has had plenty of poor luck through his career as well. The weird gearbox glitch in Brazil that cost him in 2007, unreliability in 2016, pretty much everything in 2012. Even the 2010 title he lost by fewer points than he lost with that last lap wheel failure in Spain. Generally it all balances out in the end.

And this heavy rain in the second part of the last lap in Interlagos 2008 was such a bad luck You can say that luck took away title from him in 2007 but gave it back year later so it's even

That was actually the same heavy rain that saw him being passed by both Kubica and Vettel, Vettel passing him for that crucial WDC losing position, the heavy rain didn't suit his low df set up which was a defensive set up to pass cars if he was out of WDC title position, without the heavy rain he may well have kept his position anyway?

pokerman wrote:
That was actually the same heavy rain that saw him being passed by both Kubica and Vettel, Vettel passing him for that crucial WDC losing position, the heavy rain didn't suit his low df set up which was a defensive set up to pass cars if he was out of WDC title position, without the heavy rain he may well have kept his position anyway?

That's not the point, the situation was a pure gamble, no one knew what's gonna happen on next lap - even 15 seconds delay in the rain probably would have changed the outcome of the whole season. It was pure flip coin and situation went on his favor. I call it a bit lucky

mikeyg123 wrote:

Blake wrote:

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

and if it weren't for a bit of good luck in Brazil 2008, he'd only have 4 now. It works both ways usually.

I think that's exactly the point "trento" is making. Hamilton has had good and bad luck over his career. He's certainly in a lucky phase at the moment.

yes, he is.

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote: Really? We're going back 8 years?

I'm not saying he's never had bad luck. I'm saying that recently he's been pretty fortunate that things have fallen his way when it looked like he was up against it.

What fell his way in 2016?

Why?

You don't think that Hamilton had bad luck in 2016, that wasn't 8 years ago?

where did I say I thought Hamilton didn't have bad luck in 2016? And so what if it wan't 8 years ago. That was in response to a poster who gave an 8 year example.

Recently Hamilton's been riding a wave of good fortune. Don't try to turn this into some kind of attack; it's just an observation. But things have fallen his way just when they looked bleak. It's not something you need to read too much into and it's not a reflection on him as a driver. There's no need to engage defense mode

Mayox wrote:

pokerman wrote:
That was actually the same heavy rain that saw him being passed by both Kubica and Vettel, Vettel passing him for that crucial WDC losing position, the heavy rain didn't suit his low df set up which was a defensive set up to pass cars if he was out of WDC title position, without the heavy rain he may well have kept his position anyway?

That's not the point, the situation was a pure gamble, no one knew what's gonna happen on next lap - even 15 seconds delay in the rain probably would have changed the outcome of the whole season. It was pure flip coin and situation went on his favor. I call it a bit lucky

So it had to be specific to 15 seconds and even then we don't know if it would have actually have made a difference at all?

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote: Really? We're going back 8 years?

I'm not saying he's never had bad luck. I'm saying that recently he's been pretty fortunate that things have fallen his way when it looked like he was up against it.

What fell his way in 2016?

Why?

You don't think that Hamilton had bad luck in 2016, that wasn't 8 years ago?

where did I say I thought Hamilton didn't have bad luck in 2016? And so what if it wan't 8 years ago. That was in response to a poster who gave an 8 year example.

Recently Hamilton's been riding a wave of good fortune. Don't try to turn this into some kind of attack; it's just an observation. But things have fallen his way just when they looked bleak. It's not something you need to read too much into and it's not a reflection on him as a driver. There's no need to engage defense mode

Yes it was in response to the poster but still conveniently ignores 2016 which for some reason I was wrong to mention because perhaps it seems to destroy the luck narrative that we want to be running with?

j man wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

Lewis could very realistically have 7 WDCs already with better "luck". Making someone out to be "lucky" is always a red herring.

Indeed. I remember back in the day everyone used to say Schumacher was lucky as well. Ultimately if you're running towards the front a lot of the time then you're going to inherit a number of wins from others' misfortune.

Hamilton has had plenty of poor luck through his career as well. The weird gearbox glitch in Brazil that cost him in 2007, unreliability in 2016, pretty much everything in 2012. Even the 2010 title he lost by fewer points than he lost with that last lap wheel failure in Spain. Generally it all balances out in the end.

Yes with perfect luck Hamilton could also have picked up 2007/2010/2012/2016 to put him ahead of Schumacher. Over his whole career his luck has generally worked out to be on the bad side. I'm pleased though he has at least matched Fangio as befits his talent and work ethic.

mas wrote:

j man wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

Lewis could very realistically have 7 WDCs already with better "luck". Making someone out to be "lucky" is always a red herring.

Indeed. I remember back in the day everyone used to say Schumacher was lucky as well. Ultimately if you're running towards the front a lot of the time then you're going to inherit a number of wins from others' misfortune.

Hamilton has had plenty of poor luck through his career as well. The weird gearbox glitch in Brazil that cost him in 2007, unreliability in 2016, pretty much everything in 2012. Even the 2010 title he lost by fewer points than he lost with that last lap wheel failure in Spain. Generally it all balances out in the end.

Yes with perfect luck Hamilton could also have picked up 2007/2010/2012/2016 to put him ahead of Schumacher. Over his whole career his luck has generally worked out to be on the bad side. I'm pleased though he has at least matched Fangio as befits his talent and work ethic.

During the Button years the amount of bad luck he had was insane in 2012 alone he lost 3 wins, perhaps he's only deserving of one kind of luck?

mas wrote:Yes with perfect luck Hamilton could also have picked up 2007/2010/2012/2016 to put him ahead of Schumacher. Over his whole career his luck has generally worked out to be on the bad side. I'm pleased though he has at least matched Fangio as befits his talent and work ethic.

If you apply that perfect luck to other drivers, their records would go up as well. Is there any multiple-WDC who didn't miss out on a title due to luck?

Exediron wrote:

mas wrote:Yes with perfect luck Hamilton could also have picked up 2007/2010/2012/2016 to put him ahead of Schumacher. Over his whole career his luck has generally worked out to be on the bad side. I'm pleased though he has at least matched Fangio as befits his talent and work ethic.

If you apply that perfect luck to other drivers, their records would go up as well. Is there any multiple-WDC who didn't miss out on a title due to luck?

Vettel?

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:What fell his way in 2016?

Why?

You don't think that Hamilton had bad luck in 2016, that wasn't 8 years ago?

where did I say I thought Hamilton didn't have bad luck in 2016? And so what if it wan't 8 years ago. That was in response to a poster who gave an 8 year example.

Recently Hamilton's been riding a wave of good fortune. Don't try to turn this into some kind of attack; it's just an observation. But things have fallen his way just when they looked bleak. It's not something you need to read too much into and it's not a reflection on him as a driver. There's no need to engage defense mode

Yes it was in response to the poster but still conveniently ignores 2016 which for some reason I was wrong to mention because perhaps it seems to destroy the luck narrative that we want to be running with?

It doesn't ignore 2016. I wasn't making a list of every year he's been lucky and every year he hasn't. Why must you turn every comment involving Hamilton into a battle? At the moment his luck is pretty strong. You seemed to agree with that earlier but now all of a sudden you're getting bent out of shape?

JN23 wrote:

Exediron wrote:

mas wrote:Yes with perfect luck Hamilton could also have picked up 2007/2010/2012/2016 to put him ahead of Schumacher. Over his whole career his luck has generally worked out to be on the bad side. I'm pleased though he has at least matched Fangio as befits his talent and work ethic.

If you apply that perfect luck to other drivers, their records would go up as well. Is there any multiple-WDC who didn't miss out on a title due to luck?

Vettel?

Vettel might be a fair bet - 2009 was winnable, but I'm not convinced that luck had anything to do with him not winning. Driver error was most of it. The 2017 season is another possibility, where reliability removed any chance of him winning. That one depends on how you view Singapore: if it's bad luck, luck could probably have won him the 2017 title. If it's driver error, less likely.

Exediron wrote:Somebody did this last year and got it right, but they waited until a consistent pattern had emerged. I'm going bold and calling it after the second race.

What we saw from Leclerc in Bahrain lived up to the promise I knew (certainly hoped!) he had, and once Ferrari start focusing their attention on him he will prove too much for Hamilton to overcome with the Ferrari being the slightly quicker car.

Bookmark this page, people - it's going to happen.

It's already a bit reminiscent of Hamilton's first season in 2007. Leclerc would be an astonishing driver if he could withstand the pressure of Vettel, Hamilton and a full-year title campaign in his first year with a top team. I think those who write Vettel off too soon may regret it..

Yeah I need to see more. But I still think it's going to be too hard for him to do it this year. I struggle to believe that Vettel is just going to fold and let Leclerc beat him every weekend. It just doesn't sound plausible. And we know that Ham will be strong. Originally I thought Verstappen would be in the mix as well, which would make it even harder, but it may still happen. So yeah...too much of a mountain to climb.

Mayox wrote:

pokerman wrote:
That was actually the same heavy rain that saw him being passed by both Kubica and Vettel, Vettel passing him for that crucial WDC losing position, the heavy rain didn't suit his low df set up which was a defensive set up to pass cars if he was out of WDC title position, without the heavy rain he may well have kept his position anyway?

That's not the point, the situation was a pure gamble, no one knew what's gonna happen on next lap - even 15 seconds delay in the rain probably would have changed the outcome of the whole season. It was pure flip coin and situation went on his favor. I call it a bit lucky

Hamilton was a net loser due to the rain, he was coming home 4th before the rain started. He ended up 5th but still enough to win the title.

Johnson wrote:

Mayox wrote:

pokerman wrote:
That was actually the same heavy rain that saw him being passed by both Kubica and Vettel, Vettel passing him for that crucial WDC losing position, the heavy rain didn't suit his low df set up which was a defensive set up to pass cars if he was out of WDC title position, without the heavy rain he may well have kept his position anyway?

That's not the point, the situation was a pure gamble, no one knew what's gonna happen on next lap - even 15 seconds delay in the rain probably would have changed the outcome of the whole season. It was pure flip coin and situation went on his favor. I call it a bit lucky

Hamilton was a net loser due to the rain, he was coming home 4th before the rain started. He ended up 5th but still enough to win the title.

And could very well end 6th and lose the title because as I said - last lap was a coin flip impossible to predict. He could lose the title (deserved one) for reasons that were totally not up to him - and it was extremely close to happen (first sector of last lap was fine for Glock, Brundle was sure Hamilton is gonna lose). So if we are talking about this last race - unlucky one was Massa, Hamiltion was lucky - that's it. As mentioned before the title was well deserved and it's not my point to prove otherwise.

tim3003 wrote:

Exediron wrote:Somebody did this last year and got it right, but they waited until a consistent pattern had emerged. I'm going bold and calling it after the second race.

What we saw from Leclerc in Bahrain lived up to the promise I knew (certainly hoped!) he had, and once Ferrari start focusing their attention on him he will prove too much for Hamilton to overcome with the Ferrari being the slightly quicker car.

Bookmark this page, people - it's going to happen.

It's already a bit reminiscent of Hamilton's first season in 2007. Leclerc would be an astonishing driver if he could withstand the pressure of Vettel, Hamilton and a full-year title campaign in his first year with a top team. I think those who write Vettel off too soon may regret it..

Yeah it's too soon to be writing anyone off, I see another similarity as well when Leclerc didn't wait for permission to pass Vettel in Bahrain, you make an early statement that you're there to win as well.

mikeyg123 wrote:

Blake wrote:

trento wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

and if it weren't for a bit of good luck in Brazil 2008, he'd only have 4 now. It works both ways usually.

I think that's exactly the point "trento" is making. Hamilton has had good and bad luck over his career. He's certainly in a lucky phase at the moment.

I have heard it said that bad luck is the things that happen to you that you can't control. Good luck is the result of events that you were able to capitalize on by being in the right place at the right time with the right opportunities. Lewis and other great drivers have often put themselves in those places when they weren't able to win outright and have reaped the benefits.

A lot of people think that Lewis was gifted the win in Germany last year, but he was putting pressure on Seb in the rain and was there, running strongly and able to take maximum advantage when Seb crashed his Ferrari in the wet.

...or in other words: "Good luck is when opportunity meets preparation, while bad luck is when lack of preparation meets reality." Eliyahu Goldratt

kleefton wrote:Yeah I need to see more. But I still think it's going to be too hard for him to do it this year. I struggle to believe that Vettel is just going to fold and let Leclerc beat him every weekend. It just doesn't sound plausible. And we know that Ham will be strong. Originally I thought Verstappen would be in the mix as well, which would make it even harder, but it may still happen. So yeah...too much of a mountain to climb.

Ricciardo did it in Red Bull as Vettel's teammate. And he did it in the 1st race.

Either Vettel is underrated or Leclerc is overrated, I suspect it’s a bit of both.

Vettel is beating the guy who is supposed to end his career 4-1 in qualifying so far.

Yeah Leclerc is definitely fast but he is not polished enough to be wdc, let alone beat Vettel.

This thread hasn't aged very well, has it?

KingVoid wrote:Either Vettel is underrated or Leclerc is overrated, I suspect it’s a bit of both.

Vettel is beating the guy who is supposed to end his career 4-1 in qualifying so far.

To be fair, they have looked very similar in race trim. But yeah, Vettel has not been dethroned in the manner that many predicted as of yet. The problem is that nothing can be gleaned from their head-to-head due to the incessant meddling of the pit wall in all of their races.

FrusEldar wrote:This thread hasn't aged very well, has it?

Source: http://d3mzynga6nypxa.cloudfront.net/wp ... 4_1280.jpg

Apparently Team Red can't slap their a$$ using both hands!!

kleefton wrote:Yeah Leclerc is definitely fast but he is not polished enough to be wdc, let alone beat Vettel.

Yeah he's not ready yet, Ferrari made the right decision in prioritising Vettel in the early races.

pokerman wrote:

kleefton wrote:Yeah Leclerc is definitely fast but he is not polished enough to be wdc, let alone beat Vettel.

Yeah he's not ready yet, Ferrari made the right decision in prioritising Vettel in the early races.

Did they?

We've had two weekends now where it looked like Leclerc had the pace to take it to the Mercedes. Neither of those worked out, once due to reliability and once due to driver error. But on the other side, we have no weekends whatsoever where Vettel looked like he had the pace to take it to the Mercedes. Yes, he's beaten Leclerc more often than not -- mostly through luck and pitwall meddling -- but he has never looked like a championship contender.

Bottom line: Ferrari knows Vettel can't beat Hamilton without a superior car. They don't know about Leclerc yet. It doesn't make sense to favor the driver you know isn't good enough. What are they going to get? A happier driver, who still isn't good enough?

This attempt to rewrite history and give Baku to Leclerc is absurd. He crashed out in qualifying, and his race pace was no better than Gasly on the same strategy. Why do we assume that Leclerc could have taken it to the Mercedes? Because he looked good in practice? Mercedes are known for relentless sandbagging.

There has been exactly one race where Leclerc was better than Vettel, that was Bahrain. Everywhere else Vettel has showed better race pace. Today he was clearly faster than Leclerc in the final stint on 6 lap older tyres.