I am calling it now, Charles Leclerc will win the WDC

[Exediron]

Somebody did this last year and got it right, but they waited until a consistent pattern had emerged. I'm going bold and calling it after the second race.

What we saw from Leclerc in Bahrain lived up to the promise I knew (certainly hoped!) he had, and once Ferrari start focusing their attention on him he will prove too much for Hamilton to overcome with the Ferrari being the slightly quicker car.

Bookmark this page, people - it's going to happen.

[Charles LeBrad]

Are you talking about this year, or in general?
If it’s in general, I agree with you.

[Mort Canard]

I am going to say "not this year". Prove me wrong!!!

I don't think he is the equal of Lewis just yet.

Ferrari could easily end up holding Leclerc back with either team orders or technical problems with the car that have plagued them for a number of years.

I would not mind being wrong all that much!!!

[sandman1347]

Somebody did this last year and got it right, but they waited until a consistent pattern had emerged. I'm going bold and calling it after the second race.

What we saw from Leclerc in Bahrain lived up to the promise I knew (certainly hoped!) he had, and once Ferrari start focusing their attention on him he will prove too much for Hamilton to overcome with the Ferrari being the slightly quicker car.

Bookmark this page, people - it's going to happen.

Very bold prediction

[KingVoid]

Right now, Hamilton literally has zero experience racing against Leclerc. Bahrain was the first time they even shared the same piece of tarmac together on the same lap.

When Hamilton raced against Vettel and Rosberg, it felt like he knew their weaknesses inside out and used it very effectively against them.

I wonder if the fact that Charles is still a complete enigma to Lewis works to his advantage somehow.

[sandman1347]

Unless Ferrari consistently have an advantage against Mercedes, it will be difficult for Charles to beat Hamilton to the title. I think wet races will be an important factor as will the occasional young guy mistake from Leclerc.

[Honda Quick]

I hope! Started following Charles on Facebook in early 2016 in hopes he would one day sit in the red car. And now he's here and shining bright so far!

It's got to be strange times at Ferrari for the employees. On one hand, you have a 4x WDC who absolutely adored your company and wants to win for you, but just can't quite get it done. On top of that, it appears that from 2017 to now, it's very possible that Hamilton is in his head and he will not overcome that psychologically. On the other, there's a bright young star in the sister car who's also saying all the right things, has been asked to hold station in the first race and did so for the team, and was let down by the team in the 2nd race, costing him a win. None of this will have gone unnoticed by those in the garage or factory. Very interesting times at Ferrari. Good luck, Binotto. You're going to need to exercise some serious emotional intelligence this year.

[Exediron]

Somebody did this last year and got it right, but they waited until a consistent pattern had emerged. I'm going bold and calling it after the second race.

What we saw from Leclerc in Bahrain lived up to the promise I knew (certainly hoped!) he had, and once Ferrari start focusing their attention on him he will prove too much for Hamilton to overcome with the Ferrari being the slightly quicker car.

Bookmark this page, people - it's going to happen.

Very bold prediction

That's the idea. I feel like if you're going to do a 'calling it now' thread, you shouldn't wait until the picture is clear. This is a pure gut instinct call: I feel like Ferrari has had the car to win for two years, and now they have the driver who can do it.

[iano]

Somebody did this last year and got it right, but they waited until a consistent pattern had emerged. I'm going bold and calling it after the second race.

What we saw from Leclerc in Bahrain lived up to the promise I knew (certainly hoped!) he had, and once Ferrari start focusing their attention on him he will prove too much for Hamilton to overcome with the Ferrari being the slightly quicker car.

Bookmark this page, people - it's going to happen.

Very bold prediction

That's the idea. I feel like if you're going to do a 'calling it now' thread, you shouldn't wait until the picture is clear. This is a pure gut instinct call: I feel like Ferrari has had the car to win for two years, and now they have the driver who can do it.

Yup, agreed. No point in a 'calling it now' thread once it is obvious.

It is looking very feasible he is the most likely driver of the most likely team. It seems that when all is working for Ferrari they have the pace to win, and Vettel seems to be slightly off his game and error prone.

There is a question over Ferrari reliability though. One thing to have the pace, another to turn that pace into wins. In Australia they had something wrong and were behind Red Bull, who in turn is behind Merc for outright pace. And in Bahrain they had failure that cost them the win.

Will Ferrari fix the reliability before someone else fixes the speed?
Will Vettel get his mojo back and/or something dent Leclerc's confidence?

I see those as the risks to your prediction.

[trento]

I predict he will be 3rd, behind Max.

Ferrari is not quick enough. Look what happened. They were too quick and broke down. U need both speed and reliability

[sandman1347]

Somebody did this last year and got it right, but they waited until a consistent pattern had emerged. I'm going bold and calling it after the second race.

What we saw from Leclerc in Bahrain lived up to the promise I knew (certainly hoped!) he had, and once Ferrari start focusing their attention on him he will prove too much for Hamilton to overcome with the Ferrari being the slightly quicker car.

Bookmark this page, people - it's going to happen.

Very bold prediction

That's the idea. I feel like if you're going to do a 'calling it now' thread, you shouldn't wait until the picture is clear. This is a pure gut instinct call: I feel like Ferrari has had the car to win for two years, and now they have the driver who can do it.

Yup, agreed. No point in a 'calling it now' thread once it is obvious.

It is looking very feasible he is the most likely driver of the most likely team. It seems that when all is working for Ferrari they have the pace to win, and Vettel seems to be slightly off his game and error prone.

There is a question over Ferrari reliability though. One thing to have the pace, another to turn that pace into wins. In Australia they had something wrong and were behind Red Bull, who in turn is behind Merc for outright pace. And in Bahrain they had failure that cost them the win.

Will Ferrari fix the reliability before someone else fixes the speed?
Will Vettel get his mojo back and/or something dent Leclerc's confidence?

I see those as the risks to your prediction.

There are two much bigger issues for Charles and that's Hamilton and Mercedes. Mercedes have been stronger with regards to in-season development than Ferrari and Hamilton thrives in the second half of the season; getting stronger as the season progresses. Ferrari failing to capitalize in Bahrain is not an insignificant matter; especially with Lewis taking the win.

[Exediron]

There are two much bigger issues for Charles and that's Hamilton and Mercedes. Mercedes have been stronger with regards to in-season development than Ferrari and Hamilton thrives in the second half of the season; getting stronger as the season progresses. Ferrari failing to capitalize in Bahrain is not an insignificant matter; especially with Lewis taking the win.

This used to be Vettel's reputation as well. Teams thrive in the second half of the season; drivers don't. Not trying to take anything away from Hamilton, whom I think is currently the clear benchmark of the grid - I just don't buy into the idea of drivers thriving in the second half of the season after it was so thoroughly blown apart by Vettel after he left Red Bull. Hamilton has had seasons where he didn't drive particularly well in the second half, as well.

[sandman1347]

There are two much bigger issues for Charles and that's Hamilton and Mercedes. Mercedes have been stronger with regards to in-season development than Ferrari and Hamilton thrives in the second half of the season; getting stronger as the season progresses. Ferrari failing to capitalize in Bahrain is not an insignificant matter; especially with Lewis taking the win.

This used to be Vettel's reputation as well. Teams thrive in the second half of the season; drivers don't. Not trying to take anything away from Hamilton, whom I think is currently the clear benchmark of the grid - I just don't buy into the idea of drivers thriving in the second half of the season after it was so thoroughly blown apart by Vettel after he left Red Bull. Hamilton has had seasons where he didn't drive particularly well in the second half, as well.

The difference is that Vettel's time of performing well in the second half was when he had a car that was better than anyone else on the grid and a teammate who wasn't a rival. Hamilton hasn't performed poorly in the second half of a season in a very long time. He's outperformed Rosberg in the second half quite consistently and against Vettel he has been dominant in the second half of these last two title battles even when his car was slower. "Second half" might be a bit misleading but generally, Hamilton hits full stride around the mid-point of a season and delivers results relentlessly from there on out. I agree though that Mercedes are an absolute class act when it comes to fighting for championships. They are a well oiled machine the likes of which we haven't seen since Ferrari at the turn of the century. Their development pace is relentless and they are always improving and learning.

For your prediction to come true; Leclerc will probably need to maintain a level of consistency that is extremely high and he will need to do it at an age when consistency is often not a strong point. Either that or Ferrari will need to establish a more decisive advantage. They will certainly need to get on top of their reliability issues. I just don't know that Charles is up to the task of hanging with Lewis point for point for 21 races. Time will tell.

[Invade]

Somebody did this last year and got it right, but they waited until a consistent pattern had emerged. I'm going bold and calling it after the second race.

What we saw from Leclerc in Bahrain lived up to the promise I knew (certainly hoped!) he had, and once Ferrari start focusing their attention on him he will prove too much for Hamilton to overcome with the Ferrari being the slightly quicker car.

Bookmark this page, people - it's going to happen.

Nice early bold call. I can't bet against Lewis right now, though. He's in his pomp and will have capable machinery. If Leclerc can beat Vettel and go toe to toe with Hamilton to win this Championship with both Ferrari and Mercedes capable of both titles, it would be seriously impressive.

[froze]

Well, it's still early days, but I certainly hope he will!

I have to say, being a long-time Kimi fan, I was of course a little bit disappointed to see my favorite driver lose the Ferrari seat to Leclerc, but after yesterday's race, I can see that this was meant to be and I am so glad Charles is there now to breath fresh air to the old Hamilton-Vettel rivalry. I always rated Charles highly but was never really completely certain if he was ready to step up to the big leagues yet, but now I am. Not only is he a fast driver, but the aura that surrounds him is something very special. It's hard to explain what exactly it is, but all I can say is that I can't remember the last time I saw such a young driver with this kind of mental serenity. I hope he goes on to achieve what his godfather Jules was denied of.

[Covalent]

I agree. It's a feeling I've had since before the season began that he'll be champ already in his first season at Ferrari.
I support Vettel but I think it's going to be Charles vs. Lewis this year.

Leclerc FTW!

[Alienturnedhuman]

It has the hallmarks of a 2005 repeat. Ferrari faster, peakier and fragile like the McLaren, Mercedes slightly slower, more consistent, but reliable like the Renault.

[Zoue]

I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

[Invade]

I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

Yep, Hamilton has been getting the breaks. He's being shone upon.

Ferrari have extracted immense performance, but at what cost... I don't think they're in control right now.

Speaking of rain, it will be very interesting to see how Leclerc fares against the rest at the pointy end of the grid given his excursions in such conditions in his career to date. That's another element which could be a deciding factor in the Championships.

[TheGiantHogweed]

Man, it has been just 1 race that Leclerc has beaten Vettel!! Bottas usually looks stong in races at the start of the season. But he didn't this time. But he won last race comortably and is leading the championship. He he going to win the championship? Really unlikely. Vettel also looked off his usual pace to me which I don't think will continue like this. Nobody started getting excited about Bottas being WDC when he looked better than Hamilton early on in 2017. Which he did in qualifying in Bahrain and then dominated in russia like Leclerc did against vettel this weekend in Bahrain. That was 4 races in, but this is just 2. 19 more to go. Basically still a full season. I don't know why some people seem t be expecting Vettel to continue like this. He may be inconsistent, but every seasn, he still has many extremelly good races and we don't yet know if he will be far better han Leclerc in those. I think he will soon find his form and use his experience to his advantage.

Leclerc still looked very weak in pretty much every wet session last year even as recently as brazil against Ericsson. It is far to early to conclude anything anything and i still think Vettel will likely beat Leclerc overall this season. This track suited Ferrari really well, i just don't think Vettel or Bottas coped well in the windy conditions.

[FrusEldar]

Somebody did this last year and got it right, but they waited until a consistent pattern had emerged. I'm going bold and calling it after the second race.

What we saw from Leclerc in Bahrain lived up to the promise I knew (certainly hoped!) he had, and once Ferrari start focusing their attention on him he will prove too much for Hamilton to overcome with the Ferrari being the slightly quicker car.

Bookmark this page, people - it's going to happen.

That would be me I guess

Here is a copy of the post:

Post subject: I am calling it now Hamilton will win WDC 2018PostPosted: 01 Jul 2018 06:36
Online


Maybe I should wait for today's race.

But what the heck, I am not being paid to write predictions. It's all a bit of fun.

So here it goes.

Hamilton will win again this year's WDC for three simple reasons:

1. He is just better than Vettel. Vettel is not good enough to beat Hamilton, unless he has clear car advantage. In my mind is clear that Vettel when under pressure he struggles. He showed it last year. This year he is doing it again and up to now Vettel has failed to fully capitalise when he had a car advantage.

2. Mercedes overall will have a better package. In France they were stronger, today probably as well, barring some catastrophe. Ferrari will now have to play catch-up again and we know how that usually works out.

3. Ferrari have a weak line-up. Kimi cannot really help Vettel, whereas Bottas is always there about, even if Hamilton overall is better than him.

I will be happy to be proven wrong, because I am not a big fan of Hamilton. But Mercedes have given him the car and he will do what is required. Ferrari is close but so far away and Vettel simply cannot compensate for whatever deficiencies his car might have with his driving skill. He is good, but not good enough to push Hamilton enough into error.

Feel free to bump this thread through the year to see how my prediction goes.



What could possibly go wrong?

Now regarding Leclerc, I also think he is the real deal. But Ferrari struggles with updates whereas Mercedes overall has better consistency throughout the year and Lewis has the experience advantage.

He will do a better job than Vettel in pushing Hamilton, but right now I feel I don't have enough input to agree with such a bold prediction. But overall I would be very surprised if Leclerc doesn't end up champion in the next 2-3 years (yeah I know I am hedging my bed, but two races is simply to early to call it.)

That's my two cents anyway.

[Harpo]

Somebody did this last year and got it right, but they waited until a consistent pattern had emerged. I'm going bold and calling it after the second race.

What we saw from Leclerc in Bahrain lived up to the promise I knew (certainly hoped!) he had, and once Ferrari start focusing their attention on him he will prove too much for Hamilton to overcome with the Ferrari being the slightly quicker car.

Bookmark this page, people - it's going to happen.

You're really a cautious gambler... I "called it" in the Predictions for 2019 Thread.

[Badgeronimous]

I think he has every chance of winning the WDC.

If the Ferrari is quicker, and Hamilton isn't having a season like last and makes a few errors.... however Leclerc has never been under the pressure of a WDC - Lewis Hamilton has.

The Mercedes team is IMO a far more competant team and less likely to make errors on strategy and development. That also plays to Lewis Hamilton.

I hope so though. It is nice to see a new face at the front.

[KingVoid]

Somebody did this last year and got it right, but they waited until a consistent pattern had emerged. I'm going bold and calling it after the second race.

What we saw from Leclerc in Bahrain lived up to the promise I knew (certainly hoped!) he had, and once Ferrari start focusing their attention on him he will prove too much for Hamilton to overcome with the Ferrari being the slightly quicker car.

Bookmark this page, people - it's going to happen.

Very bold prediction

That's the idea. I feel like if you're going to do a 'calling it now' thread, you shouldn't wait until the picture is clear. This is a pure gut instinct call: I feel like Ferrari has had the car to win for two years, and now they have the driver who can do it.

Yup, agreed. No point in a 'calling it now' thread once it is obvious.

It is looking very feasible he is the most likely driver of the most likely team. It seems that when all is working for Ferrari they have the pace to win, and Vettel seems to be slightly off his game and error prone.

There is a question over Ferrari reliability though. One thing to have the pace, another to turn that pace into wins. In Australia they had something wrong and were behind Red Bull, who in turn is behind Merc for outright pace. And in Bahrain they had failure that cost them the win.

Will Ferrari fix the reliability before someone else fixes the speed?
Will Vettel get his mojo back and/or something dent Leclerc's confidence?

I see those as the risks to your prediction.

There are two much bigger issues for Charles and that's Hamilton and Mercedes. Mercedes have been stronger with regards to in-season development than Ferrari and Hamilton thrives in the second half of the season; getting stronger as the season progresses. Ferrari failing to capitalize in Bahrain is not an insignificant matter; especially with Lewis taking the win.

I have to disagree here. I think this is only a very new phenomenon.

2010 - Lewis weaker in second half of the season
2011 - Lewis weaker in second half of the season
2012 - no difference
2013 - Lewis weaker in second half of the season
2014 - no difference, the reliability just switched around
2015 - Lewis weaker in the second half of the season

Lewis getting stronger in the second half of the season is a very recent phenomenon.

[Mayox]

2 weeks ago Bottas was WDC, now it's Leclerc, who will be WDC after China?

I'm crossing fingers for Leclerc too, he's fast driver but I'm a fan more because of the way he was able to handle the situation yesterday, great guy

[Siao7]

2 weeks ago Bottas was WDC, now it's Leclerc, who will be WDC after China?

I'm crossing fingers for Leclerc too, he's fast driver but I'm a fan more because of the way he was able to handle the situation yesterday, great guy

Well, whoever wins the Chinese GP obviously!

[Johnson]

I have to disagree here. I think this is only a very new phenomenon.

2010 - Lewis weaker in second half of the season
2011 - Lewis weaker in second half of the season
2012 - no difference
2013 - Lewis weaker in second half of the season
2014 - no difference, the reliability just switched around
2015 - Lewis weaker in the second half of the season

Lewis getting stronger in the second half of the season is a very recent phenomenon.

Hamilton was not weaker in the second half in 2010, he was stronger. 2012 also stronger, Button was on his pace first 3 races of 2012.

I don’t buy into the Hamilton stronger in second half though. More like he can be poor first 3-4 races then he is usually fine.

[Johnson]

Leclerc has already messed up one Q3, his words and been off the road in Australia and a minor off road in Bahrain. He isn’t ready to take on an error free Hamilton with those kinds of errors it seems.

[Option or Prime]

Leclerc is undoubtably super quick, but winning the WDC as an F1 rookie is a big ask as evidenced by Lewis Hamilton in his first year.
Add to that the cars Ferrari are quick when they turn the wick up but will we see in time that their reliability drops off.

I mentioned pre season that an article showed Mercedes had better fuel economy and could carry less fuel as a result. Could it be that Ferrari's speed means burning excessive fuel? Ferrari have yet to finish a race with their PU's running at max.

[StevoYZF]

[quote="Option or Prime"]Leclerc is undoubtably super quick, but winning the WDC as an F1 rookie is a big ask..."

He's not a rookie.

[Option or Prime]

Leclerc is undoubtably super quick, but winning the WDC as an F1 rookie is a big ask..."

He's not a rookie.

Yep, you are right sorry.....

[mas]

2 weeks ago Bottas was WDC, now it's Leclerc, who will be WDC after China?

I'm crossing fingers for Leclerc too, he's fast driver but I'm a fan more because of the way he was able to handle the situation yesterday, great guy

On driving talent alone it's a three way fight between Hamilton, Leclerc and Verstappen IMO. However is the Ferrari too fragile and the Red Bull too slow this year ? As much as I would like a change Hamilton may relentlessly acquire another title due to the other manufacturers not stepping up to the plate. I am more confident of Leclerc beating Vettel than Leclerc winning the WDC this year. Leclerc, like Clark, is all about most efficient racing lines and he will get better as he gets to grip with what the Ferrari can and can't do, notice his few offs in Bahrain. There is a lot more to come from Leclerc this season but will the Ferrari hold up for him during the season ? Two races on the trot now it's been fragile ....

[pokerman]

Unless Ferrari consistently have an advantage against Mercedes, it will be difficult for Charles to beat Hamilton to the title. I think wet races will be an important factor as will the occasional young guy mistake from Leclerc.

Yeah there's so many elements to it and it does rain now and again, we've seen Vettel stumble in the rain these past few seasons and Leclerc's record in such conditions wouldn't be as good as Vettels.

[pokerman]

I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

It's not quite the same as Hamilton had a broken floor in Australia plus Bottas has form for beating Hamilton now and again in early season races only then to get well beaten as the season progresses.

With Vettel and Leclerc it's a totally different dynamic, I don't think that Bottas could do to Hamilton what Leclerc just did to Vettel, there's levels to this and I think that Leclerc has already shown he can live at Vettel's level, can Vettel live at Leclerc's level?

Regarding Hamilton being lucky well I think it's a case of luck evens itself out and Hamilton has had a lot of catching up to do especially from his McLaren days and let's not forget Malaysia 2016. I agree that Hamilton was lucky at times last year when it rained and enabled him to beat the Ferrari which otherwise on the day was faster but then again that's also part of Hamilton's armoury.

[UnlikeUday]

With due respect to Leclerc, Ferrari were touted to be strong at Bahrain. China will give a very clear indication as China is the 1st typical race track. Does anyone know if Leclerc is good in the rain or not?

Yesterday, Leclerc didn't make any mistakes, was humble after losing the victory & was still positive. All these point to making him a great & future F1 champion. It's upto Ferrari not to screw it up like 2018.

[trento]

I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

[pokerman]

With due respect to Leclerc, Ferrari were touted to be strong at Bahrain. China will give a very clear indication as China is the 1st typical race track. Does anyone know if Leclerc is good in the rain or not?

Yesterday, Leclerc didn't make any mistakes, was humble after losing the victory & was still positive. All these point to making him a great & future F1 champion. It's upto Ferrari not to screw it up like 2018.

Leclerc is a bit patchy in the rain and not very good in mixed conditions, something I picked up on in his GP3 days and seemed to reemerge last season.

[sandman1347]

That's the idea. I feel like if you're going to do a 'calling it now' thread, you shouldn't wait until the picture is clear. This is a pure gut instinct call: I feel like Ferrari has had the car to win for two years, and now they have the driver who can do it.

Yup, agreed. No point in a 'calling it now' thread once it is obvious.

It is looking very feasible he is the most likely driver of the most likely team. It seems that when all is working for Ferrari they have the pace to win, and Vettel seems to be slightly off his game and error prone.

There is a question over Ferrari reliability though. One thing to have the pace, another to turn that pace into wins. In Australia they had something wrong and were behind Red Bull, who in turn is behind Merc for outright pace. And in Bahrain they had failure that cost them the win.

Will Ferrari fix the reliability before someone else fixes the speed?
Will Vettel get his mojo back and/or something dent Leclerc's confidence?

I see those as the risks to your prediction.

There are two much bigger issues for Charles and that's Hamilton and Mercedes. Mercedes have been stronger with regards to in-season development than Ferrari and Hamilton thrives in the second half of the season; getting stronger as the season progresses. Ferrari failing to capitalize in Bahrain is not an insignificant matter; especially with Lewis taking the win.

I have to disagree here. I think this is only a very new phenomenon.

2010 - Lewis weaker in second half of the season
2011 - Lewis weaker in second half of the season
2012 - no difference
2013 - Lewis weaker in second half of the season
2014 - no difference, the reliability just switched around
2015 - Lewis weaker in the second half of the season

Lewis getting stronger in the second half of the season is a very recent phenomenon.

His current form is what matters. Much of what you've written is inaccurate (such as 2014; where he won 6 of the last 7 races and was undoubtedly stronger in the second half of the season) or irrelevant (such as 2015; where he sewed up the championship with three races to go and was out to lunch for the remainder of the year). The bottom line though is that, for the last three consecutive seasons, Lewis has been stronger in the latter stages of the season than he was at the start of the year. Leclerc will be going up against the Lewis Hamilton of today; not the Lewis Hamilton of 8 years ago in seasons where he was not even in the championship fight down the stretch.

[Zoue]

I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

Really? We're going back 8 years?

I'm not saying he's never had bad luck. I'm saying that recently he's been pretty fortunate that things have fallen his way when it looked like he was up against it.

[sandman1347]

I'm not writing Vettel off after one poor race. Leclerc has been impressive and it certainly looks like he's got what it takes, so I definitely see him as a possibility. But just as I didn't write Hamilton off after Bottas beat him in Australia, I'm not writing Vettel off because Leclerc beat him here. Vettel needs to get back in the game soon, though. Even without the spin Leclerc was beating him quite handily.

But Hamilton's luck is extraordinary. Just about every time he looks to have a car deficit, either it rains or something happens to the opposition, giving him a chance to make up the gap. Of course he puts himself in those positions to capitalize, but still Lady Luck appears very fond of him. Ferrari looks to have made a fragile car on the evidence so far this year and that might be the deciding factor in this year's Championship

As Hamilton said, he's also had the worst of luck. Let's not forget how he lost to Kimi by one point in 2007. It would've been 6 wdcs then.

Lewis could very realistically have 7 WDCs already with better "luck". Making someone out to be "lucky" is always a red herring.