Which team will be the fourth ‘Hybrid Era’ winner?

[Jenson's Understeer]

Since the start of Hybrid Era in 2014, only three teams have won a race: Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull. To put it another way, seven of the teams on the grid haven’t won a race in the current engine era, and you have to go back to the start of 2013 for the last occasion a race was won by a team outside of the big three.

So the question is a simple one: of the other seven teams, which (if any) will be the next to win a race in the Hybrid Era?

[Invade]

Renault. They're pushing and they have the racing burglar now.

[Jezza13]

All things being equal it should be Renault & i'm hoping it'll be Melbourne 2019.

The only other possible contender who could spring a surprise is maybe McLaren.

[j man]

None of them, until the next major regulation change.

[Badgeronimous]

The gap between the top and the middle has been insurmountable this past few years.

Renault have the best chance, but without a freakish race, I feel it is unlikely.

[UnlikeUday]

I'll pinpoint to:
Ricciardo in Renault OR
Raikkonen in Alfa Romeo.

The gap between the top 3 & the remaining field is depressing to sat the least. Any of these teams scoring a podium even is a rarity, so a win even looks more impossible. But I see Renault & Alfa Romeo closing the gap faster than the remaining midfield teams.

[BeOnEdge]

If any, Renault will be the only team with a chance.

I'm hopeful that Ricciardo will get a few podiums this year. Would be great to see Hulk finally getting on the podium too.

[sandman1347]

Gotta imagine that Dan will poach one eventually.

[Fiki]

I can just imagine Max running into a few people again, and a Toro Rosso or Renault reaping the rewards. But I voted Renault, because they are the only other works team.

[TheGiantHogweed]

The gap between the top and the middle has been insurmountable this past few years.

Renault have the best chance, but without a freakish race, I feel it is unlikely.

Well, there have been one or two crazy races. I may be in the minority, but I think Massa would have won Baku in 2017 if not for his broken rear damper. He looked incredibly strong that race. Every restart, he challenged the cars ahead and nearly got past Vettel. He looked far better than Stroll in the race and stroll himself looked as quick as ricciardo near the end.

It obviously will have involved luck, but i think he likely would have won without that problem. I think there will be races like this once or twice every few years. But not sure how likely it will be that one of these other teams gets the win.

[Exediron]

It'll be Perez, picking up all the pieces in a crazy race where the top cars either DNF or have issues.

Or, more likely, nobody.

[Banana Man]

Renault but not for a few years. They’re the only team with the resources to challenge the top 3.

[pokerman]

Most likely would be Renault, a works team with two strong drivers.

[Badgeronimous]

The gap between the top and the middle has been insurmountable this past few years.

Renault have the best chance, but without a freakish race, I feel it is unlikely.

Well, there have been one or two crazy races. I may be in the minority, but I think Massa would have won Baku in 2017 if not for his broken rear damper. He looked incredibly strong that race. Every restart, he challenged the cars ahead and nearly got past Vettel. He looked far better than Stroll in the race and stroll himself looked as quick as ricciardo near the end.

It obviously will have involved luck, but i think he likely would have won without that problem. I think there will be races like this once or twice every few years. But not sure how likely it will be that one of these other teams gets the win.

Of the last 162 Podium Place available (54 races), a total of 2 podium places have been occupied by drivers not in a Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull.

I'd suggest that the trend of 1.2% of podiums being from outside the big 3, suggest that crazy races are becoming more and more rare.

[Zoue]

In a triumph of hope over experience, I'm going for McLaren

[Harpo]

Stroll will win in Bakou...
Ricciardo somewhere else.

[Mercedes-Benz]

None of them will win. There will be some podium chances.

[Zoue]

Sauber have been looking pretty decent today. I think podiums are definitely in their future but they'll probably need good fortune to get a win

[j man]

Sauber have been looking pretty decent today. I think podiums are definitely in their future but they'll probably need good fortune to get a win

You mean Alfa Romeo?

Yes, the name change is going to take some getting used to.

[Zoue]

Sauber have been looking pretty decent today. I think podiums are definitely in their future but they'll probably need good fortune to get a win

You mean Alfa Romeo?

Yes, the name change is going to take some getting used to.

yep

[Steve_muzzy]

I reckon (well misguidedly hope) mclaren will do it. Winning is in their dna and they have some great technical people.

[Mort Canard]

Will probably be Renault. My vote of Haas was more aspirational than anything based in realistic expectation.

[ptr250]

So far from the current testing results it looks like the new Renault PU may deliver as promised. Wouldn't it be karma if both McLaren and Renault leapfrog RB. As far as race win, I'd love to see DR win one for Renault!

[pokerman]

Sauber have been looking pretty decent today. I think podiums are definitely in their future but they'll probably need good fortune to get a win

You mean Alfa Romeo?

Yes, the name change is going to take some getting used to.

The name change is actually why they have a better chance at being successful it looks like it's basically manufacturer backing?

[dizlexik]

It looks like it's going to be Renault. They have everything to make it happen. Maybe not this year, but next year it should be quite possible. Of course history knows many examples of teams that failed to deliver.

[Lt. Drebin]

None of them, until the next major regulation change.

No hope.

The best is up to 2-3 podium finishes and that's it.