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PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:38 pm 

Joined: Wed Feb 29, 2012 5:47 pm
Posts: 3472
First of all, here are the results from the Abu Dhabi TMW vote:


Now, the final totals for 2018. I'm going to start with the closest TMW scores, based primarily on individual TMW round wins and using the percentage as a differentiator where two scores are the same.

Hulkenberg 9-10 Sainz (54/46)
This was the closest TMW battle of 2018 and was the only one of the ten not to already have been settled before Abu Dhabi. Hulkenberg had jumped out to a 3-0 lead, then a 5-2 lead, and then a 7-4 lead after Germany. However, Sainz hit back, taking the lead between the two for the first time after Singapore (8-7). Two successive draws meant the score stayed at 9-9 after both Mexico and Brazil, setting up a last-race decider. In the end it wasn't even close as Nico Hulkenberg's aggressive early move on Romain Grosjean saw him leave the Haas driver no space, resulting in Nico not only "hanging here like a cow" but also suffering a decisive TMW defeat. His first 0-point race of the year saw Carlos Sainz take victory in our closest TMW score of the year.

Force India
Perez 9-11 Ocon (49/51)
The Force India TMW score ended up looking better for Perez than it seemed destined to do a few races ago. A mixed start saw Ocon take a 2-1 lead, followed by Perez overturning that to make it 3-2, then Ocon returning the favour to edge back ahead 4-3 before Perez tied it up. The next ten races saw Esteban's form improve as he rattled off seven wins from ten races, as well as our first draw of the season in Germany, meaning he actually led by 11 to 6 with just three races to go. However, it was Perez who finished the year in the ascendency by scoring TMW wins in each of those three races, closing the deficit to 9-11 and ensuring the Force India pair actually ended 2018 with the closest percentage split. In the end, Ocon received 15 votes more than Perez did all year, so less than one per race on average, but will of course sit out 2019 whilst his Mexican teammate continues with the team formerly known as Force India.

Magnussen 12-9 Grosjean (64/36)
For a while, this looked like it was going to be a decimation that would end Romain Grosjean's F1 career. Indeed, after six races it was 6-0 to Kevin Magnussen and many of us (myself included) were struggling to envisage Grosjean continuing with Haas for 2019. However, the Frenchman got his act together at the right time, winning nine of the remaining fifteen TMW votes and in the process, earning himself a reprieve. While the percentage split looks a lot less impressive, it has to be remembered that over the first six races, Grosjean received very few votes (19 in total) during races where we were generally seeing 30-to-40 votes per race. Whereas later in the season there were less votes being made, so that probably artificially amplifies that side of things.

Vettel 13-8 Raikkonen (55/45)
Believe it or not, our fourth 'closest' TMW vote actually includes the guy who finished 2nd in the WDC, and for half a season looked like he might end up as our 2018 Champion. It all started so well for Seb, too: 6-1 after seven races. However, high profile mistakes at a number of races after Canada meant that in spite of some good recovery drives, he suffered TMW defeats in France, Austria, Germany, Italy, Japan, Texas and Brazil. You might argue that it wasn't so much Kimi's improvement that made it vaguely competitive between the two Ferrari drivers, but Seb's own mistakes resulting in him being voted against. Obviously there were good drives on Kimi's behalf in Italy, Texas and Brazil, but even then it was only the latter where there isn't an argument Seb wouldn't have finished ahead had he not been the architect of his own downfall.

Stroll 13-7 Sirotkin (63/37)
One driver moving up the grid comfortably disposes of another driver who finds himself out of F1, but perhaps that isn't the whole story. A lot of the damage can be traced back to the first five races of the year as Lance Stroll started strongly against his rookie teammate, racing (as much as anyone can in a 2018 Williams, anyway!) out to a 5-0 lead. After that it was more even, with Stroll edging the remaining races 8-7 (plus one tie). Ironically, Sirotkin's best sequence of results came immediately after the first five races, taking TMW honours for three consecutive races, the only occasion on which he managed to string multiple TMW wins together. Despite his stronger performances in qualifying, it seemed to be the races where he suffered, and that tended to hold more weight when it came to people's votes. Neither driver was helped by the car, often finding themselves amongst the first drivers to be lapped, and therefore the first drivers to have their races compromised by moving off the racing line. Either way, according to all of you, Lance Stroll's season was almost twice as good as his teammates. So there!

Red Bull
Ricciardo 7-14 Verstappen (43/57)
A tale of two seasons? After all, after the F1 circus left Monaco, Daniel Ricciardo had already built a 5-1 lead over Max Verstappen, who had been involved in incident after incident. Ricciardo was being touted as a future Ferrari or Mercedes driver while some were going to the extreme of suggesting Red Bull consider dropping Verstappen. Fast-forward to the end of the season and you'll see that Ricciardo added just two more TMW wins, while Verstappen rediscovered his mojo and took the other 14 TMW wins. Like at Haas, some of the percentage was skewed by there being more votes being made earlier in the season (coinciding with Verstappen's particularly dodgy run of form), while unlike at Haas there were numerous reliability issues for Daniel, which certainly contributed somewhat to such a poor run of results after Monaco. In a fair fight, I don't think anyone would claim Ricciardo is as far behind Verstappen as the 14-7 score suggest, but it's safe to say Max's first six races have long been forgotten.

Ericsson 6-15 Leclerc (30/70)
The Sauber TMW was something of a strange one, and easily the one that relied on consistency the most. To put it another way, it was Marcus Ericsson who won the first three TMW votes, with Charles Leclerc then winning the next seven, Ericsson bagging another three to reduce the deficit to 7-6, before Leclerc ended the season by rattling off eight straight wins to make it a comfortable 15-6. Like Sirotkin, there is an argument that Leclerc's slow start was purely down to inexperience and that once he started getting to grips with the car and the tyres, it wasn't particularly close between the pair. The only question that remains is how bad is Marcus Ericsson? Because if he's really, really bad, then Leclerc's performance probably isn't as impressive as it might look...

Toro Rosso
Gasly 15-6 Hartley (71/29)
We're into our three most lopsided TMW scores of 2018, although there wasn't much at all between the Toro Rosso pair and the Sauber pair (both ending 15-6 with a very similar percentage). Not unlike Charles Leclerc, Pierre Gasly will be graduating to a race winning F1 team on the back of a strong performance relative to his teammate. It's actually easy to forget that after three races, it was Brendon Hartley who led the TMW battle 2-1, but that was pretty much as it good as it got for the Kiwi. Sequence of four, two and then six TMW wins in a row over the next fourteen races meant Gasly quickly grew a insurmountable 13-4 advantage, and although the pair split the last four races with two TMW wins apiece, it did little to prevent Pierre's perceived dominance being converted into a dominant 15-6 score for the season. It's also worth noting that Brendon Hartley was the only driver to fail to win consecutive TMW votes all year. A measure of Gasly's performance, or something that highlights how weak a teammate Hartley actually was?

Hamilton 17-4 Bottas (71/29)
No prizes for guessing which our two most lopsided TMW results are this year. In second, by virtue of scoring a smaller percentage of the votes, is the Mercedes pair. Again, as has been the case with a few of these, there was actually a point in the season where you'd have struggled to imagine it could end up the way it did. After Canada the score was 4-3 to Hamilton, and while most would've expected him to go onto take the TMW spoils for 2018, for Bottas to only win one more vote over the rest of the season was difficult to foresee at that point. Yet that's exactly what happened, with his drive in Russia the only thing stopping Lewis from stringing together 14 straight TMW vote wins. Of course, some of that can be attributed to Bottas' misfortune, to bad strategy calls, and to Valtteri taking on 'wingman' duties, yet a lot of the time it was simply that he couldn't get close to Lewis. A measure of how bad things ended up getting for Bottas? Well, he won four TMW votes all year, but there were actually five occasions where he didn't receive a single vote.

Alonso 17-4 Vandoorne (87/13)
Let's be honest: this is going to surprise nobody. There is no better word to describe Fernando Alonso's performance relative to his teammate than dominant. It ended 17-4 for the year but it's hard to escape the feeling that even some of that was down to Fernando's impending departure from F1 resulted in his performances dipping. At his best, Alonso claimed nine TMW vote wins in a row - having set the initial standard by opening the season with seven in a row. After he extended the lead to 11-1 in Hungary, it meant it was the first TMW vote settled for the season. Vandoorne's 77 votes for the year was comfortably the lowest. Whatever way you look at it, it's hard to imagine we will see too many more unbalanced TMW results going forwards.

Some statistics:

Most Individual Votes
1. Alonso - 494
2. Hamilton - 446
3. Leclerc - 387
4. Gasly - 360
5. Vettel - 355

Least Individual Votes
5. Bottas - 185
4. Sirotkin - 180
3. Ericsson - 163
2. Hartley - 150
1. Vandoorne - 77

Most TMW Wins In a Row
Alonso - 9 (Austria to Japan)
Hamilton - 8 (France to Singapore)
Leclerc - 8 (Italy to Abu Dhabi)
Alonso - 7 (Australia to Canada)
Leclerc - 7 (Baku to Britain)
Gasly - 6 (Hungary to Japan)
Magnussen - 6 (Australia to Monaco)
Vettel - 6 (Bahrain to Canada)

Races Receiving 0 Votes
Bottas - 5
Ericsson - 4
Grosjean - 3
Hartley - 3
Ricciardo - 3
Vandoorne - 3
Hulkenberg - 1
Perez - 1
Raikkonen - 1
Sainz - 1
Verstappen - 1
Vettel - 1

Most Votes At An Individual Race
Alonso - 53 (Baku)
Leclerc - 51 (Baku)
Stroll - 50 (Baku)
Perez - 49 (Baku)
Ricciardo - 48 (Baku)
(I guess this is what happens when one race receives 100 more votes than the next highest! Which leads into...)

Races With The Most Total Votes
Baku - 523
Bahrain - 417
Australia - 408
Germany - 347
Spain - 324

And for anyone who wants to take a look at it, here's a link to the Google Doc itself: ... sp=sharing

Thanks again to everyone who has participated in these threads across the year. As a reminder, I'm doing TMW prediction threads for each of the ten pairings over the winter break. We've already done Williams (George Russell received 75% of the vote versus Robert Kubica) but the Toro Rosso one is live here.

Pick 10 | 1st x3, 2nd x3, 3rd x8
2019: 11th | 2018: 5th | 2017: 6th | 2016: 8th | 2015: 2nd | 2014: 15th | 2013: 17th | 2012: 11th

PostPosted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:43 pm 

Joined: Wed Feb 29, 2012 5:47 pm
Posts: 3472
I did this earlier in the season and meant to include it in the final write-up but forgot. Anyway, for each team I've calculated the percentage of the team's points scored by the highest scoring driver, and then compared that with the percentage of the corresponding TMW vote. As was the case earlier in the year, the percentages are actually quite similar for most of the teams (it's a little less so at Toro Rosso/Williams, but then they had the fewest points finishes so more opportunity for a lopsided total in favour of one driver).

Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton scored 62% of the team's points; Hamilton received 71% of the TMW vote
Ferrari: Seb Vettel scored 56% of the team's points; Vettel received 55% of the TMW vote
Red Bull: Max Verstappen scored 59% of the team's points; Verstappen received 57% of the TMW vote
Renault: Nico Hulkenberg scored 57% of the team's points; Hulkenberg received 54% of the TMW vote
Haas: Kevin Magnussen scored 60% of the team's points; Magnussen received 64% of the TMW vote
McLaren: Fernando Alonso scored 81% of the team's points; Alonso received 87% of the TMW vote
Force India: Sergio Perez scored 56% of the team's points; Perez received 49% of the TMW vote
Sauber: Charles Leclerc scored 81% of the team's points; Leclerc received 70% of the TMW vote
Toro Rosso: Pierre Gasly scored 88% of the team's points; Gasly received 71% of the TMW vote
Williams: Lance Stroll scored 86% of the team's points; Stroll received 63% of the TMW vote

Pick 10 | 1st x3, 2nd x3, 3rd x8
2019: 11th | 2018: 5th | 2017: 6th | 2016: 8th | 2015: 2nd | 2014: 15th | 2013: 17th | 2012: 11th

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