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I'm going to do a series of threads over the winter (because let's be honest, until testing begins we'll have very little else to discuss!) for us to predict how we think each of the ten PF1 TMW votes will go in 2019. However, given Williams have today announced Robert Kubica will be promoted to a full race seat for 2019, I thought I'd get the ball rolling early with the first of these threads: George Russell vs Robert Kubica

It's a potentially fascinating pairing. In one seat you've got George Russell, the reigning GP3 Champion, who is well placed to claim the F2 title this weekend and become only the second driver in a row to graduate to F1 after winning those two series. In the other seat you've got Robert Kubica, a driver whose history we all know about, who will be making a full-time F1 comeback that seemed impossible only a couple of years ago. In doing so he'll become only the third driver in F1 history to have an interval of over 150 races between two grand prix starts, having missed the last 158 races - only Luca Badoer (167) and Jan Lammer (164) have had larger gaps. Both drivers will have everything to prove but for entirely different reasons. For Mercedes-backed George Russell, he'll want to show that he belongs in F1 for reasons other than being able to create a dynamite PowerPoint presentation, while Robert Kubica wants the world to see what he himself believes: that he can be as good as he was before his accident.

Perhaps the biggest question will be less about the drivers and more about Williams themselves. The car's performance (or lack of) often meant that Lance Stroll and Sergey Sirotkin found themselves eliminated in Q1 and amongst the first cars to be lapped, compromising their races from that point onwards and making it difficult to get a true comparison of the two. Running so low meant they also had very little chance to catch the eye on-screen, combining for just three points finishes. The fact that Sirotkin's most noticeable moment might've been his rigid defending against Sergio Perez in Singapore, a squabble over 13th place, almost sums up how pitiful Williams' 2018 was. If they can't improve as a team then Kubica and Russell's opportunity to show what they can do could be just as limited. If the Grove team can at least make a step forward and provide a car capable of even semi-regular points finishes then it'll provide both a bigger window in which to make an impact.

With all that in mind, who do we think will win the Williams TMW battle in 2019: returning Robert or graduating George?

I voted George Russell here but I desperately want to be wrong here.

I was a big Kubica fan before his accident and I really hope he comes good.

I went with Kubica. I suspect romanticism played a part

I also went with Kubica because I'm polish so any other reasons I might have don't matter. We've been waiting 8 years and we are back baby

I'll be cheering for Kubica all the way, but I'm expecting Russell to have the upper hand over the season. He's been the standout driver in F2 this year and I think he's got some good potential, while I just can't see Kubica having the same speed he had before his accident when he can't grip the wheel properly. That's not to say Kubica won't be good enough, just that I don't expect him to be at the level that earned him that Ferrari contract.

I voted for Russel. He looks freaky fast in F2, and his open-wheeled racing experience is bang up to date. I can't imagine Kubica hasn't lost anything by not driving F1 cars for 8 years, but I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

That said, I think there's a decent chance Russel is quicker than he ever was. Sorry, Kubica fans.

I think they will be close enough that they will both receive plaudits if the car can score regular points and both get forgotten about if it can't.

I don't think Kubica is fast enough anymore to be in F1 and I'm assuming Russel is going to be on the pace.

This one at this stage is a huge guessing. We have a guy proven in lower series (which is not always a guarantee vide Palmer or Vandoorne) and guy who was used to be super fast but was out of car for 8 years and has his limitations...we will be smarter after first few races, however...
I have a feeling that Russell is in horrible position anyway and in totally lose-lose situation. If he beat Kubica he won't get any credit, people will say "it was only one hand guy who was out of the sport for almost a decade..." but if he lose he's gonna get flamed hard... "F2 champion, future of our sport and he lost to one hand guy who was out of the sport for almost a decade??!?"
Really it's a no win situation, only hope is that Williams car will be better and he will be able to fight and prove himself with other people than only his teammate

Mayox wrote:We have a guy proven in lower series (which is not always a guarantee vide Palmer or Vandoorne)

Palmer took 4 seasons to win the GP2 championship, so a totally different situation. Vandoorne took 2, so still not a rookie champion, but beyond that I don't believe he's anywhere near as bad as people are making him out to be. Palmer was on average 6 tenths off of Hulk: Vandoorne is 2 tenths off of Alonso. By that metric, he's about as quick as Raikkonen or Massa.

Exediron wrote:

Mayox wrote:We have a guy proven in lower series (which is not always a guarantee vide Palmer or Vandoorne)

Palmer took 4 seasons to win the GP2 championship, so a totally different situation. Vandoorne took 2, so still not a rookie champion, but beyond that I don't believe he's anywhere near as bad as people are making him out to be. Palmer was on average 6 tenths off of Hulk: Vandoorne is 2 tenths off of Alonso. By that metric, he's about as quick as Raikkonen or Massa.

That would be to assume Alonso is as quick (and motivated) now as he was from 2010-2014. Also the average quali gap between Alonso and Vandoorne is a sizable 3 and a half tenths.

To get back on topic, George should win this confortably from a rational perspective. Kubica's input will be useful, but I doubt he has the elite soeed any more..

Impossible to predict, I reckon. Kubica has a fire inside him, that's for sure, but Russell looks handy too. it could go either way.

Exediron wrote:

Mayox wrote:We have a guy proven in lower series (which is not always a guarantee vide Palmer or Vandoorne)

Palmer took 4 seasons to win the GP2 championship, so a totally different situation. Vandoorne took 2, so still not a rookie champion, but beyond that I don't believe he's anywhere near as bad as people are making him out to be. Palmer was on average 6 tenths off of Hulk: Vandoorne is 2 tenths off of Alonso. By that metric, he's about as quick as Raikkonen or Massa.

Vandoorne has been nearer to 4 tenths slower than Alonso this being the prime example why he lost his seat, 2 tenths slower and maybe he keeps his seat bearing in mind that Alonso was actually nearer to 3 tenths quicker than Massa and Kimi.

I was thinking about doing something similar but as a driver all thread but I guess doing it this way gives more focus on each driver pairing?

In this case I voted for Russell, I think Russell has a lot of potential seeing how he's driven these past two seasons in GP3 and F2 matching what Leclerc did before him, strangely in F2 he beat Leclerc's main rivals in GP3 who were also his teammates.

With Kubica I never saw him as being truly elite but given the right circumstances he could have been a WDC, a kind of Rosberg/Button level driver, he was capable of outstanding performances but overall you can't get away from the fact that over the 3 years there wasn't that much between himself and Heidfeld, the seasons were a bit up and down for him.

Kubica mk1 I would have him beating Russell in his rookie season but I can't help but feel that Kubica mk2 might have lost a tenth or two?

pokerman wrote:

Exediron wrote:

Mayox wrote:We have a guy proven in lower series (which is not always a guarantee vide Palmer or Vandoorne)

Palmer took 4 seasons to win the GP2 championship, so a totally different situation. Vandoorne took 2, so still not a rookie champion, but beyond that I don't believe he's anywhere near as bad as people are making him out to be. Palmer was on average 6 tenths off of Hulk: Vandoorne is 2 tenths off of Alonso. By that metric, he's about as quick as Raikkonen or Massa.

Vandoorne has been nearer to 4 tenths slower than Alonso this being the prime example why he lost his seat, 2 tenths slower and maybe he keeps his seat bearing in mind that Alonso was actually nearer to 3 tenths quicker than Massa and Kimi.

I guess I must have been thinking of last year, maybe? If he's gone backwards from 2 to 4, then it's kind of hard to argue with the seat loss.

Exediron wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Exediron wrote:

Mayox wrote:We have a guy proven in lower series (which is not always a guarantee vide Palmer or Vandoorne)

Palmer took 4 seasons to win the GP2 championship, so a totally different situation. Vandoorne took 2, so still not a rookie champion, but beyond that I don't believe he's anywhere near as bad as people are making him out to be. Palmer was on average 6 tenths off of Hulk: Vandoorne is 2 tenths off of Alonso. By that metric, he's about as quick as Raikkonen or Massa.

Vandoorne has been nearer to 4 tenths slower than Alonso this being the prime example why he lost his seat, 2 tenths slower and maybe he keeps his seat bearing in mind that Alonso was actually nearer to 3 tenths quicker than Massa and Kimi.

I guess I must have been thinking of last year, maybe? If he's gone backwards from 2 to 4, then it's kind of hard to argue with the seat loss.

Well even last year it was 3 tenths which did bear comparison with Kimi and Massa, I'm not sure were this 2 tenths ever came from?

I voted Russell and he'll win by a landslide. Since Kubica has been gone for so long he's effectively a rookie again. Russell has been stellar, as impressive as Leclerc was last season, with an arguably stronger field. If Kubica was anywhere near as fast as some of his fans want him to be he would have been picked up by Renault two years ago or Williams last year.

Sure, it's a great story, but it won't be close or anything.

Exediron wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Exediron wrote:

Mayox wrote:We have a guy proven in lower series (which is not always a guarantee vide Palmer or Vandoorne)

Palmer took 4 seasons to win the GP2 championship, so a totally different situation. Vandoorne took 2, so still not a rookie champion, but beyond that I don't believe he's anywhere near as bad as people are making him out to be. Palmer was on average 6 tenths off of Hulk: Vandoorne is 2 tenths off of Alonso. By that metric, he's about as quick as Raikkonen or Massa.

Vandoorne has been nearer to 4 tenths slower than Alonso this being the prime example why he lost his seat, 2 tenths slower and maybe he keeps his seat bearing in mind that Alonso was actually nearer to 3 tenths quicker than Massa and Kimi.

I guess I must have been thinking of last year, maybe? If he's gone backwards from 2 to 4, then it's kind of hard to argue with the seat loss.

I used this as my reference point. The teammate comparison uses the fastest laps of both both drivers produced in the last quali session that both were in during a session which seems pretty fair. Leclerc beating Ericsson by 6 tenths and Gasly beating Hartley by 8 tenths show it could be worse I guess.

https://www.racefans.net/2018-f1-season ... ying-data/

pokerman wrote:I was thinking about doing something similar but as a driver all thread but I guess doing it this way gives more focus on each driver pairing?

In this case I voted for Russell, I think Russell has a lot of potential seeing how he's driven these past two seasons in GP3 and F2 matching what Leclerc did before him, strangely in F2 he beat Leclerc's main rivals in GP3 who were also his teammates.

With Kubica I never saw him as being truly elite but given the right circumstances he could have been a WDC, a kind of Rosberg/Button level driver, he was capable of outstanding performances but overall you can't get away from the fact that over the 3 years there wasn't that much between himself and Heidfeld, the seasons were a bit up and down for him.

Kubica mk1 I would have him beating Russell in his rookie season but I can't help but feel that Kubica mk2 might have lost a tenth or two?

I tend to agree with most of this, actually. The only thing I would add is that I would expect the two to be pretty closely matched for the first few races of the year while Russell gets fully up to speed (much like Ericsson and Leclerc at the start of this season, where Ericsson actually started the season ahead) but George will ultimately end up outperforming Robert across the whole season.

As for the BIB, it did cross my mind to do a single thread with ten choices (similar to the TMW threads for each race). However, I feel like this way allows more discussion about each of the individual pairings as well as providing a new topic every week or so across the winter when, let's be honest, there isn't going to be a huge amount else to talk about!

BMWSauber84 wrote:

Exediron wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Exediron wrote:

Mayox wrote:We have a guy proven in lower series (which is not always a guarantee vide Palmer or Vandoorne)

Palmer took 4 seasons to win the GP2 championship, so a totally different situation. Vandoorne took 2, so still not a rookie champion, but beyond that I don't believe he's anywhere near as bad as people are making him out to be. Palmer was on average 6 tenths off of Hulk: Vandoorne is 2 tenths off of Alonso. By that metric, he's about as quick as Raikkonen or Massa.

Vandoorne has been nearer to 4 tenths slower than Alonso this being the prime example why he lost his seat, 2 tenths slower and maybe he keeps his seat bearing in mind that Alonso was actually nearer to 3 tenths quicker than Massa and Kimi.

I guess I must have been thinking of last year, maybe? If he's gone backwards from 2 to 4, then it's kind of hard to argue with the seat loss.

I used this as my reference point. The teammate comparison uses the fastest laps of both both drivers produced in the last quali session that both were in during a session which seems pretty fair. Leclerc beating Ericsson by 6 tenths and Gasly beating Hartley by 8 tenths show it could be worse I guess.

https://www.racefans.net/2018-f1-season ... ying-data/

Sorry but I think the Racefans system is rubbish, of the 14 races I used the biggest individual gap Gasly had was 0.578s and I didn't use Australia were Gasly was nearly 8 tenths slower, they have to be using sessions were Hartley was seconds slower down to either wet sessions or sessions were Hartley had problems?

Jenson's Understeer wrote:

pokerman wrote:I was thinking about doing something similar but as a driver all thread but I guess doing it this way gives more focus on each driver pairing?

In this case I voted for Russell, I think Russell has a lot of potential seeing how he's driven these past two seasons in GP3 and F2 matching what Leclerc did before him, strangely in F2 he beat Leclerc's main rivals in GP3 who were also his teammates.

With Kubica I never saw him as being truly elite but given the right circumstances he could have been a WDC, a kind of Rosberg/Button level driver, he was capable of outstanding performances but overall you can't get away from the fact that over the 3 years there wasn't that much between himself and Heidfeld, the seasons were a bit up and down for him.

Kubica mk1 I would have him beating Russell in his rookie season but I can't help but feel that Kubica mk2 might have lost a tenth or two?

I tend to agree with most of this, actually. The only thing I would add is that I would expect the two to be pretty closely matched for the first few races of the year while Russell gets fully up to speed (much like Ericsson and Leclerc at the start of this season, where Ericsson actually started the season ahead) but George will ultimately end up outperforming Robert across the whole season.

As for the BIB, it did cross my mind to do a single thread with ten choices (similar to the TMW threads for each race). However, I feel like this way allows more discussion about each of the individual pairings as well as providing a new topic every week or so across the winter when, let's be honest, there isn't going to be a huge amount else to talk about!

Yeah I think this way is better because each pairing has a better chance of getting equal treatment with more thought given.

Llotyhy wrote:I voted Russell and he'll win by a landslide. Since Kubica has been gone for so long he's effectively a rookie again. Russell has been stellar, as impressive as Leclerc was last season, with an arguably stronger field. If Kubica was anywhere near as fast as some of his fans want him to be he would have been picked up by Renault two years ago or Williams last year.

Sure, it's a great story, but it won't be close or anything.

Saving this post to smear it in your face in 3 months

cwir wrote:

Llotyhy wrote:I voted Russell and he'll win by a landslide. Since Kubica has been gone for so long he's effectively a rookie again. Russell has been stellar, as impressive as Leclerc was last season, with an arguably stronger field. If Kubica was anywhere near as fast as some of his fans want him to be he would have been picked up by Renault two years ago or Williams last year.

Sure, it's a great story, but it won't be close or anything.

Saving this post to smear it in your face in 3 months

Well it is possible scenario and looking at all circumstances you have to consider it.
Kubica however is not a guy who would want to go back to F1 for any price only to drive a car and embarrass himself, he's a proud guy. If he agreed to come back, he must be sure he can do it at the very high level. It's an F1, no one would let him drive a car otherwise anyway. If he will be anywhere near his old level, Russell's fans might be surprised

Mayox wrote:

cwir wrote:

Llotyhy wrote:I voted Russell and he'll win by a landslide. Since Kubica has been gone for so long he's effectively a rookie again. Russell has been stellar, as impressive as Leclerc was last season, with an arguably stronger field. If Kubica was anywhere near as fast as some of his fans want him to be he would have been picked up by Renault two years ago or Williams last year.

Sure, it's a great story, but it won't be close or anything.

Saving this post to smear it in your face in 3 months

Well it is possible scenario and looking at all circumstances you have to consider it.
Kubica however is not a guy who would want to go back to F1 for any price only to drive a car and embarrass himself, he's a proud guy. If he agreed to come back, he must be sure he can do it at the very high level. It's an F1, no one would let him drive a car otherwise anyway. If he will be anywhere near his old level, Russell's fans might be surprised

Has Russell actually got any fans on here?

pokerman wrote:

Mayox wrote:

cwir wrote:

Llotyhy wrote:I voted Russell and he'll win by a landslide. Since Kubica has been gone for so long he's effectively a rookie again. Russell has been stellar, as impressive as Leclerc was last season, with an arguably stronger field. If Kubica was anywhere near as fast as some of his fans want him to be he would have been picked up by Renault two years ago or Williams last year.

Sure, it's a great story, but it won't be close or anything.

Saving this post to smear it in your face in 3 months

Well it is possible scenario and looking at all circumstances you have to consider it.
Kubica however is not a guy who would want to go back to F1 for any price only to drive a car and embarrass himself, he's a proud guy. If he agreed to come back, he must be sure he can do it at the very high level. It's an F1, no one would let him drive a car otherwise anyway. If he will be anywhere near his old level, Russell's fans might be surprised

Has Russell actually got any fans on here?

Not yet... but he's fast and from what I've seen so far, likeable. I'd like to see him do well anyway.

j man wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Mayox wrote:

cwir wrote:

Llotyhy wrote:I voted Russell and he'll win by a landslide. Since Kubica has been gone for so long he's effectively a rookie again. Russell has been stellar, as impressive as Leclerc was last season, with an arguably stronger field. If Kubica was anywhere near as fast as some of his fans want him to be he would have been picked up by Renault two years ago or Williams last year.

Sure, it's a great story, but it won't be close or anything.

Saving this post to smear it in your face in 3 months

Well it is possible scenario and looking at all circumstances you have to consider it.
Kubica however is not a guy who would want to go back to F1 for any price only to drive a car and embarrass himself, he's a proud guy. If he agreed to come back, he must be sure he can do it at the very high level. It's an F1, no one would let him drive a car otherwise anyway. If he will be anywhere near his old level, Russell's fans might be surprised

Has Russell actually got any fans on here?

Not yet... but he's fast and from what I've seen so far, likeable. I'd like to see him do well anyway.

Indeed my point being it seems to be mooted that Russell fans are voting for him en masse.

I'm not a Russel fan, and I voted for him. I'm a Norris fan, and I'm bitter that he took Norris' championship in F2!

Theres 'something' about Russel that i'm just not too keen on, not that I can quantify that in any way really. I still think he is going to win the team mate battle though, he's looked genuinely properly quick so far and I think Kubica has simply been gone too long to be the same driver he was before, even without any lasting effects his injuries may have caused him. Kimi for me was never the same after his break from F1 and I think this will be true again for Kubica.

If the car is as bad as this year mind, it'll all be moot, and that's probably something to consider when next year is over to see if it has any bearing on how this pans out.

Exediron wrote:I'm not a Russel fan, and I voted for him. I'm a Norris fan, and I'm bitter that he took Norris' championship in F2!

Not only Russell though, Norris was simply not good enough to win, he only had 1 race win.

Flash2k11 wrote:Theres 'something' about Russel that i'm just not too keen on, not that I can quantify that in any way really. I still think he is going to win the team mate battle though, he's looked genuinely properly quick so far and I think Kubica has simply been gone too long to be the same driver he was before, even without any lasting effects his injuries may have caused him. Kimi for me was never the same after his break from F1 and I think this will be true again for Kubica.

If the car is as bad as this year mind, it'll all be moot, and that's probably something to consider when next year is over to see if it has any bearing on how this pans out.

I guess Russell comes across as being a bit bland but of course that has no bearing on how fast he can drive a car.

pokerman wrote:

Flash2k11 wrote:Theres 'something' about Russel that i'm just not too keen on, not that I can quantify that in any way really. I still think he is going to win the team mate battle though, he's looked genuinely properly quick so far and I think Kubica has simply been gone too long to be the same driver he was before, even without any lasting effects his injuries may have caused him. Kimi for me was never the same after his break from F1 and I think this will be true again for Kubica.

If the car is as bad as this year mind, it'll all be moot, and that's probably something to consider when next year is over to see if it has any bearing on how this pans out.

I guess Russell comes across as being a bit bland but of course that has no bearing on how fast he can drive a car.

I sort of feel like he's the kind of guy who doesn't really say a great deal, but just turns up and drives bloody quick.

Mayox wrote:

cwir wrote:

Llotyhy wrote:I voted Russell and he'll win by a landslide. Since Kubica has been gone for so long he's effectively a rookie again. Russell has been stellar, as impressive as Leclerc was last season, with an arguably stronger field. If Kubica was anywhere near as fast as some of his fans want him to be he would have been picked up by Renault two years ago or Williams last year.

Sure, it's a great story, but it won't be close or anything.

Saving this post to smear it in your face in 3 months

Kubica however is not a guy who would want to go back to F1 for any price only to drive a car and embarrass himself, he's a proud guy. If he agreed to come back, he must be sure he can do it at the very high level. It's an F1, no one would let him drive a car otherwise anyway. If he will be anywhere near his old level, Russell's fans might be surprised

Exactly this!

Both Williams and Kubica know what they are doing. Robert would never fight for an F1 seat if he didn't feel like he can do it 100%. His goal wasn't just to return to F1. And Williams had him under their roof for a year. Clearly they must be sure he's capable. They wouldn't just hand him a seat to make a great story. Buy-in money is irrelevant, others had money too.

I like Russell, he seems like a nice bloke and he's carreer so far has been outstanding. But F1 is a different game, especially if the car does not perform. Robert's experience might end up to be the more important factor between those two, rather than pure speed and talent.

We'll see, but those "landslide" comments make me laugh..

Gotta vote for George here. Kubica is a total unknown at this point and literally driving with a handicap. George is the most promising youngster coming in next year so I vote for him.