Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

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Which records will Hamilton break?

Poll ended at Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:54 pm

World Titles
14
10%
Race Wins
22
16%
Fastest Laps
6
4%
Podiums
24
17%
Laps Led
10
7%
KMs Led
9
6%
Hat Tricks
5
4%
Wins/Podiums in Consecutive Years
14
10%
Wins at an Individual Grand Prix/Circuit
16
11%
Consecutive Podiums
5
4%
Consecutive Wins
6
4%
Consecutive Poles
5
4%
Grand Slams
5
4%
 
Total votes: 141

pokerman
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break

Post by pokerman »

KingVoid wrote: The problem with this argument is that people always forget that Rosberg stacked up very well against Hamilton in 2013 when Mercedes was competitive but clearly not the best car.
That was Hamilton's weakest season against Rosberg, I think being new to the team and car being a factor, in particular the Fric system that affected how he wanted to drive the car, he came on stronger in the second half of the season but late on 2 poor races later found to be a cracked chassis which didn't help with the overall impression of his season.
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

Fiki
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break

Post by Fiki »

pokerman wrote:
Fiki wrote:
pokerman wrote:
Fiki wrote:
KingVoid wrote:Rosberg is one of those drivers whose reputation will increase over time.

People often discredit his performances against Hamilton because “it’s easy to challenge for a WDC in a dominant car”, but forget that he was also very competitive in 2013.

Nico wasn’t rated that highly by fans when he was driving, but he will be remembered fondly with hindsight.

It’s the complete opposite to Vettel and Raikkonen, two drivers whose reputation was sky-high in their mid-20s and then deteriorated with time.
I think you're right. And I also think that if Mercedes had hired a second German driver, he might now well be a multiple title holder. It's no reflection on Hamilton, but I wondered why they didn't keep the team more German.
Maybe because they didn't have a crystal ball therefore in 2012 they couldn't foresee the domination of 2014, so priority was to employ the best driver available and not just some bespoke German driver.

Also good luck in winning the titles in 2017 and 2018 with priority on having German drivers.
Possibly, but that was projecting beyond the three years immediately ahead. Remember the initial McLaren run in the 1980s? '84 and '85 were won with the best car and arguably the two best drivers in the world, but even by 1986 their run should have been finished. Still being a top team with the best driver in the world kept McLaren in touch with Williams, who didn't have the best drivers in the world, albeit both world champions then or later.
And yet Williams should have won the drivers' title with their slightly inferior drivers.

Edit: And how would the battle in 1986 have looked, had McLaren been capable of accommodating both its world champions, with their different requirements? It took them far too long to see Rosberg for the fast driver he was.
I'm a bit confused you seem to be saying the same thing as me, McLaren needed Prost for when the car was no longer dominant, similar with Hamilton and Mercedes.

A team can't gamble on having a dominant car that will facilitate having weaker drivers.
Perhaps I didn't go far enough in explaining my additional point. I didn't so much underline McLaren's need to rely on Prost to remain competitive, rather than wonder how much more competitive they could have been, had they been able to accommodate both Prost's and Rosberg's needs in a car. Keke's final race in Adelaide only provides us with a glimpse of what was possible. He certainly wasn't a slouch. And even though he himself later said he thought he was fast until he met Prost, the fact remains McLaren had two champions on their books. The parallel with Mercedes/Hamilton/Rosberg is clear I hope.

All in all, I think KingVoid's comment on Nico's reputation is correct, and that doesn't diminish respect for Hamilton's qualities in the least.

There's one record Schumacher didn't score, and that Hamilton isn't in a position to achieve anymore, but that Nico did: setting fastest lap in his very first Grand Prix.
Use every man after his desert, and who should scape whipping? Use them after your own honour and dignity.

Maria de Villota - Jules Bianchi

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Mort Canard
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by Mort Canard »

Just a recognition of the fact that in Spain, Lewis passed Michael Schumacher for the most total podiums by a formula one driver ever. MS had a total of 155 podiums in his career. Lewis registered his 156th in Spain and of course added one to it in Belgium.

Coming soon will be 92 career victories for Lewis probably before the end of the year.

That is all for now.
Mission WinLater

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Invade
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by Invade »

So what are we looking at by the end of 2021?

Currently, Hamilton has 89 wins, 93 poles and 6 WDCs.

There are 10 more races in the 2020 season - let's assume Ham claims 5 poles and wins 5 races and wins the WDC.

2021 will probably be a ~22-race season and I'll just assume that Hamilton continues to win about 50% of races in this hybrid era and notches up another 10 pole positions. I expect more resistance from Red Bull and Verstappen in 2021 but suspect Hamilton will notch up his 8th WDC.

Before we head into the new era, this would leave Hamilton with ~105 wins, ~108 poles and 8 WDCs.


Optimistic? Realistic? Conservative?

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Invade
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break

Post by Invade »

shoot999 wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:11 pm
mikeyg123 wrote:
Blake wrote:
Donington93 wrote:He may hang it up with seven championships if he exceeds Schumacher's race win total. I would think that race wins would be the tiebreaker most people would use to determine who was the most successful driver (with WDC's being the first thing). That's just my thoughts...I mean if you don't use race wins as a tiebreaker then what is the tiebreaker and why is that statistic better than race wins?
I don't see race wins as a "tiebreaker" when today's drivers have as much as 20% more races per year. Like points, it is at best an asterisk to a record, at worst meaningless.
Surely by that logic you would view Hamilton as the most successful driver anyway. 7 WDC's in in 14 seasons compared to Shumacher's 7 in 15 seasons?

It's pretty close anyway.

Hamilton is on 247 starts and 83 wins. Schumacher's 91st win was on his 247th start.
Schumacher %age wins 29.55%
Hamilton %age wins-33.60%

Its probably a good bet to assume that Hams %age will go down over the next few seasons

Quoting a post from Oct 30 2019 here...

Let's call the next few seasons the next 3 seasons, so 2020-2022. Well, it's looking likely now that Hamilton will win more than 33.60% of races in that timeframe. Perhaps he'll be at 50% for 2020 and 2021 and it will be knocked down quite a bit in 2022 but not to below the winning percentage at the time of the post which was 33.60%.

So in the end it appears that Hamilton's win percentage will go up over the next few seasons.

Now what I'm wondering is if Hamilton can stay at about 33-34% from now until he retires. This is definitely possible if his next contract is his last contract and Mercedes are still competitive from 2022 onwards, especially if he buffers himself with ~55% of wins from the ~40 races to be completed through 2020-21.

Clearly, the pandemic changed the complexion of this prediction, with Mercedes and Hamilton getting an extra year of potential dominance before the new age.

pokerman
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by pokerman »

Invade wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:17 am
So what are we looking at by the end of 2021?

Currently, Hamilton has 89 wins, 93 poles and 6 WDCs.

There are 10 more races in the 2020 season - let's assume Ham claims 5 poles and wins 5 races and wins the WDC.

2021 will probably be a ~22-race season and I'll just assume that Hamilton continues to win about 50% of races in this hybrid era and notches up another 10 pole positions. I expect more resistance from Red Bull and Verstappen in 2021 but suspect Hamilton will notch up his 8th WDC.

Before we head into the new era, this would leave Hamilton with ~105 wins, ~108 poles and 8 WDCs.


Optimistic? Realistic? Conservative?
Realistic.
PF1 Pick 10 Competition

2013: 5th Place
2014: Champion
2015: 3rd Place
2016: 4th Place

2017: 9th Place
2018: 7th place

Wins: Canada 2018, Abu Dhabi 2017
Podiums: (8)

pc27b
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by pc27b »

all of em that matter

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DOLOMITE
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by DOLOMITE »

Wins (91 v 89)
Yes

Wins In A Season 13/18 vs 11/19
No. Because he doesn't have a contractually subservient team-mate!

Wins at Same GP (8 v 8)
Yes just has to win at France or Hungary one more time

Consecutive Seasons With A Win
Yes, but will have to win in 21 + 22 to get this

Fastest laps (77 v 49)
No

Fastest Laps in a Season
No

Podiums /Season
No Schu's 17/17 will surely never be beaten.

Consecutive Podiums (19 v 16)
Possibly, but would need a run of a further consecutive 4 podiums...

Races in points (221 v 220)
Yes, only has to be in points for next 2 races

WDC's 7/6
Maybe!
"I'd rather lose a race going fast enough to win it, than win one going slow enough to lose it".
-Stirling Moss

-K-
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by -K- »

I don’t think Hamilton or anyone will be getting the Grand Slam record while the fastest lap rule remains, Hat Tricks too. He was denied another on Sunday by Ricciardo.

I’m surprised Sky Sports haven’t made more of the countdown to the most wins to be honest, though judging by the commentary lately, they might well get it wrong!

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DOLOMITE
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by DOLOMITE »

Hamilton hasn't ever really been one for the fastest laps even before the bonus point. Vettel used to go for it, but Hamilton seems to feel it has no significance or value. And to be fair I agree. All things being equal, if you can lap faster than all the other drivers, you should be winning the race anyway.

It's worth noting that Lewis may well take the 2 biggies - most wins and most WDC's but he doesn't actually hold that many records. It makes you realise that despite the win rate, he hasn't dominated to the same extent Schu did.
"I'd rather lose a race going fast enough to win it, than win one going slow enough to lose it".
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Mort Canard
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by Mort Canard »

Invade wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:17 am
So what are we looking at by the end of 2021?

Currently, Hamilton has 89 wins, 93 poles and 6 WDCs.

There are 10 more races in the 2020 season - let's assume Ham claims 5 poles and wins 5 races and wins the WDC.

2021 will probably be a ~22-race season and I'll just assume that Hamilton continues to win about 50% of races in this hybrid era and notches up another 10 pole positions. I expect more resistance from Red Bull and Verstappen in 2021 but suspect Hamilton will notch up his 8th WDC.

Before we head into the new era, this would leave Hamilton with ~105 wins, ~108 poles and 8 WDCs.


Optimistic? Realistic? Conservative?
Very plausible!! I don't see the car/driver combination out there right now that will deny Lewis those records.
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WHoff78
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by WHoff78 »

I would argue that having greater parity at Mercedes has limited Hamilton to some extent in chasing records (racking up high percentages of races wins in a season / consecutive wins & podiums), but is also played a factor in increasing the longevity of the period of success. Many would agree that the sport would be better of for increased competition/variability, but in keeping some interest up front I think it tends to temper any attempts from the FIA to equalize things. While Mercedes have played their part as well, I think that is testament to Hamilton as well and has paid dividends in the long run.

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Schermerhorn
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by Schermerhorn »

Not much resistance or competition to overcome though.

It's like a heavyweight fighting a middleweight.

Still impressive to watch though. Even though he has a B-grade team mate in Bottas.
You’re not in a fight until there’s pressure. Resistance. Overcoming something. Otherwise, it’s just an exhibition.

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Alienturnedhuman
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by Alienturnedhuman »

What about Hamilton versus the entire Schumacher family?

Presently:

7 WDC
97 wins
182 podiums
85 fastest laps

Obviously if Mick enters F1 those figures could go up, but he's currently at the Ralf end of the Schumacher talent scale, so not showing signs of ultimate greatness. But Lance Stroll had shown that with enough coaching, time and without the stress of fearing to lose your seat, that talent can be nurtured.

KingVoid
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by KingVoid »

I don’t believe that the records that Hamilton will set will ever be broken. That’s because I don’t believe that the FIA will ever allow another team to dominate like Mercedes again. The budget cap alone will make domination tenfold harder. Mercedes comfortably outspend everyone apart from Ferrari. They have double the budget of Renault/McLaren. That obviously won’t be possible anymore in the future.

That said, greatness is about more than just statistics. Senna is considered the GOAT by many people, and he doesn’t have anywhere near as many trophies as Schumacher or Hamilton. Vettel has won more trophies than Senna and no one even thinks about him in a GOAT discussion.

If another driver (say Max or Charles) can win 4 titles in an era where every team has an equal budget and the field is super close, inevitably some people who will consider that a far superior achievement to winning 7 titles with a Mercedes team that won 80% of the races from 2014-2020.

“Lewis had no competition. Lewis drove a car 1 second faster than everyone. Max/Charles won when everyone had the same car. Max/Charles are way better”

I can already see these arguments in 2030.

mikeyg123
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by mikeyg123 »

I wouldn't rule out Hamilton's records being broken if we go up to a 25 race season. Liberty want even more than that.

KingVoid
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by KingVoid »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Mon Sep 07, 2020 7:56 pm
I wouldn't rule out Hamilton's records being broken if we go up to a 25 race season. Liberty want even more than that.
Hamilton will win 8 world titles minimum. He has already won 2020 and 2021 is all but guaranteed. Who knows what will happen after that.

Do you really think that 8 world titles are possible if every team had equal budgets?

mikeyg123
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Re: Which of Schumacher's remaining records will Lewis break?

Post by mikeyg123 »

8 worlds titles are a bit different because they aren't effected by number of races which is the point I was bringing up.

It's still possible though. In equal cars Schumacher probably wins more than 7 WDC's for example.

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