2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

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UnlikeUday
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2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by UnlikeUday »

What a race we're entitled to witness tomorrow!!!!!!!
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mikeyg123
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

I hope Vettel and Hamilton get away cleanly because we could actually see a race long fight between them in pretty even looking cars.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Flash2k11 »

Think the weather is going to have some say in tomorrow's proceedings.

Be interesting to see who is leading on lap 1 after the Kemmel straight.
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shay550
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by shay550 »

Hamilton judged it perfectly last year at the start and on the safety car restart. The Ferrari has more speed this year so should be interesting.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by lord byron »

Congrats to Force India.Hope they do well in tomorrow's race

You have to wonder but was it just luck or did Merc give them there party mode as a gift to offset the fact they are still running a old engine whereas merc and all other teams have a brand new upgraded one?
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by sandman1347 »

shay550 wrote:Hamilton judged it perfectly last year at the start and on the safety car restart. The Ferrari has more speed this year so should be interesting.
I think the start or perhaps a restart might be Vettel's best shot here. I think the Ferrari is a bit quicker here and definitely has the higher top end speed. If he can get a good tow down Kemel, he will be able to make a pass. The fact that the race will be dry bodes extremely well for Ferrari. Don't count out Kimi either. He will be just as quick as Vettel here.

I think Hamilton will need to hope for maybe a good start from Ocon or a bad one from Vettel so that he can build a gap to Sebastian. I think Ferrari will be quicker in a dry race based on practice and qualifying.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Lojik »

I'll be suprised if Vettel is not leading by the end of the kemmel straight.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by UnlikeUday »

lord byron wrote:Congrats to Force India.Hope they do well in tomorrow's race

You have to wonder but was it just luck or did Merc give them there party mode as a gift to offset the fact they are still running a old engine whereas merc and all other teams have a brand new upgraded one?
Force India are also running the latest Merc engine. Force India cars are more rain friendly when compared to Haas & Red Bull have gone for low drag which is why they suffered to some extent.

Ocon is very good in the wet. Maybe a new & secure future at Force India just sparked confidence in both of them.
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by j man »

lord byron wrote:Congrats to Force India.Hope they do well in tomorrow's race

You have to wonder but was it just luck or did Merc give them there party mode as a gift to offset the fact they are still running a old engine whereas merc and all other teams have a brand new upgraded one?
They were given an open goal with Bottas, Raikkonen, Ricciardo and Verstappen all sat in the pits when the track conditions were at their best. It's a great result for Force India but let's not kid ourselves that they're actually the 3rd and 4th fastest cars. Based on their pace over the weekend they looked to be best of the rest anyway, historically this track does suit their car.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

So looks like DOTD is going to be between Bottas and Ocon tomorrow.

Didnt get to watch qualifying but looks like it should be a good race, will be interesting to see the Hamilton/Vettel fight off the start, after that given how close the cars are in race pace I imagine the one who leads after lap 1 will win.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by KingVoid »

Hamilton and Vettel will crash at Les Combes on lap 1.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

KingVoid wrote:Hamilton and Vettel will crash at Les Combes on lap 1.
That actually wouldn't surprise me. The race could well be decided by who exits Les Combes in the lead so both drivers will be taking risks there.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by UnlikeUday »

The provisional grid (there are chances Sainz may start from the pitlane):

1 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1:58.179
2 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 0.726s
3 Esteban Ocon Force India 3.672s
4 Sergio Perez Force India 3.715s
5 Romain Grosjean Haas 3.943s
6 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 4.492s
7 Max Verstappen Red Bull 4.59s
8 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 4.76s
9 Kevin Magnussen Haas 6.754s
10 Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso 1:43.844
11 Brendon Hartley Toro Rosso 1:43.865
12 Charles Leclerc Sauber 1:44.062
13 Marcus Ericsson Sauber 1:44.301
14 Carlos Sainz Renault 1:44.489
15 Fernando Alonso McLaren 1:44.917
16 Sergey Sirotkin Williams 1:44.998
17 Lance Stroll Williams 1:45.134
18 Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren 1:45.307
19 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes *
20 Nico Hulkenberg Renault *

* multiple grid penalties for changing engine elements
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by UnlikeUday »

Race sets left with drivers:

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Source - https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlduU_SWsAEdoIR.jpg:large
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by UnlikeUday »

Best Pit strategies as per Pirelli:

Quickest option is a one-stopper:
- One stint on supersoft for 16 laps plus one stint on soft to the flag.
- If starting on soft, change after 28 laps then supersoft to the flag.

If it’s warmer, or there’s some blistering on the supersoft, there are two possible alternative strategies:
- One stint on supersoft for 12 laps plus one stint on medium to the flag Or
- One stint on soft for 25 laps plus one stint on medium to the flag.

A two-stopper:
Two stints on supersoft for 13 plus 13 laps, then soft to the flag.
P.S - This strategy would be more than 15 seconds slower.
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Option or Prime »

mikeyg123 wrote:
KingVoid wrote:Hamilton and Vettel will crash at Les Combes on lap 1.
That actually wouldn't surprise me. The race could well be decided by who exits Les Combes in the lead so both drivers will be taking risks there.
I think Hamilton will do everything he can to avoid a crash, he is in it for the long game now, the last two races have seen unexpected results so I think h has learned to sit and see what happens. It really depends on whether Vettel has one of his turns but after 2 recent 'defeats' why would Vetell want to sit in the stands and watch Kimi take the spoils? Can't see a crash myself.

In this race, the Ferrari has to be favourite, it a failure if they don't win.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by UnlikeUday »

Speed trap figures of Qualy:

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Source - http://www.f1i.com/wp-content/uploads/2 ... ap-Spa.jpg
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Option or Prime »

So Ferrari and RPFI about 4mph faster than Mercedes flat out, interesting!

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

Option or Prime wrote:So Ferrari and RPFI about 4mph faster than Mercedes flat out, interesting!
Should be interesting if Vettel is behind Hamilton after the initial start, the Mercedes is best in the corners but Ferrari best on the straights, could give us an interesting battle for the first lap or so.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Option or Prime »

Agree BF11, just wonder if we seen all of the Mercedes upgrade yet, RPFI are seriously quick on this circuit though!

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Clarky »

Option or Prime wrote:So Ferrari and RPFI about 4mph faster than Mercedes flat out, interesting!
Vettel is only just over 2.5mph faster with Mercedes running more downforce.

Vettel: 315.6kmh = 196.10475mph

Hamilton: 311.8kmh = 193.74354mph

Difference = 2.36121mph

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

Clarky wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:So Ferrari and RPFI about 4mph faster than Mercedes flat out, interesting!
Vettel is only just over 2.5mph faster with Mercedes running more downforce.

Vettel: 315.6kmh = 196.10475mph

Hamilton: 311.8kmh = 193.74354mph

Difference = 2.36121mph
Is the Merc running more downforce?

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Black_Flag_11 »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Clarky wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:So Ferrari and RPFI about 4mph faster than Mercedes flat out, interesting!
Vettel is only just over 2.5mph faster with Mercedes running more downforce.

Vettel: 315.6kmh = 196.10475mph

Hamilton: 311.8kmh = 193.74354mph

Difference = 2.36121mph
Is the Merc running more downforce?
Well Ferrari have been consistently quicker in sectors 1&3 while Mercedes have been consistently quicker in sector 2, so it would certainly point towards Mercedes being more set up for grip in the corners.

If they were running the same setup ethos then that would point to Mercedes being the much better chassis the Ferrari being the much better engine.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Clarky »

mikeyg123 wrote:
Clarky wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:So Ferrari and RPFI about 4mph faster than Mercedes flat out, interesting!
Vettel is only just over 2.5mph faster with Mercedes running more downforce.

Vettel: 315.6kmh = 196.10475mph

Hamilton: 311.8kmh = 193.74354mph

Difference = 2.36121mph
Is the Merc running more downforce?
What a lot of people have been saying it and they are consistently quicker through S2.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Option or Prime »

Apologies got my kph and mph mixed up, but surely the point is Hamilton is at a disadvantage, add in DRS could LH stay ahead of the quicker Ferrari? If he got ahead in the fist place that is.

Then the pink cars with the same engine look quicker so they must also be a threat.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Zoue »

Clarky wrote:
Option or Prime wrote:So Ferrari and RPFI about 4mph faster than Mercedes flat out, interesting!
Vettel is only just over 2.5mph faster with Mercedes running more downforce.

Vettel: 315.6kmh = 196.10475mph

Hamilton: 311.8kmh = 193.74354mph

Difference = 2.36121mph
according to the same article linked to above it says the most relevant speeds to consider are those from Intermediate 1, and in those there is almost nothing between them

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Zoue »

Option or Prime wrote:Apologies got my kph and mph mixed up, but surely the point is Hamilton is at a disadvantage, add in DRS could LH stay ahead of the quicker Ferrari? If he got ahead in the fist place that is.

Then the pink cars with the same engine look quicker so they must also be a threat.
I don't think the speed gap is that large that it makes Hamilton vulnerable, tbh. And if he has greater downforce anyway it would make it that much harder for Vettel to stay close enough to him through the twisty bits in order to take maximum advantage of the speed difference on the straights.

Add in that qualifying doesn't always translate to race pace in exactly the same way, and to me it looks as though the cars are pretty identical, really. Whoever gets ahead will stay ahead I fear

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Zoue »

Option or Prime wrote:
mikeyg123 wrote:
KingVoid wrote:Hamilton and Vettel will crash at Les Combes on lap 1.
That actually wouldn't surprise me. The race could well be decided by who exits Les Combes in the lead so both drivers will be taking risks there.
I think Hamilton will do everything he can to avoid a crash, he is in it for the long game now, the last two races have seen unexpected results so I think h has learned to sit and see what happens. It really depends on whether Vettel has one of his turns but after 2 recent 'defeats' why would Vetell want to sit in the stands and watch Kimi take the spoils? Can't see a crash myself.

In this race, the Ferrari has to be favourite, it a failure if they don't win.
If last year is anything to go by track position will determine the front-runners positions. I'd say that makes it the pole-sitters race to lose

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by UnlikeUday »

Option or Prime wrote:Apologies got my kph and mph mixed up, but surely the point is Hamilton is at a disadvantage, add in DRS could LH stay ahead of the quicker Ferrari? If he got ahead in the fist place that is.

Then the pink cars with the same engine look quicker so they must also be a threat.
I bet Mercedes' & Ferrari's race pace is much better than Force India's. Even if either FI car were to get a better start & get ahead of Vettel or Hamilton, I wonder if they'll fight it out as most of the times, a midfield car just lets a tier 1 car pass by for fear of losing tyre life & strategy options. FI will surely try to finish behind these 2. They may try their best to fight it out with Red Bulls at the max.
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Option or Prime »

Well we will soon find out, you may be right, Vettell's best chance has to be at the start as Hamilton doesn't always start the quickest, I've never really understood why car performance can change from one day to the next without altering set up. Obviously temperature and wind play a part but even when the weather is similar there can be a difference. You do wonder though if Kimi could spring a surprise and I really like Ocon, for my money better than Gasly and LeClerc crazy he might not get a drive!

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by UnlikeUday »

As the picture proves it can rain in 1 section of the track whereas the other parts of the track could be dry. Currently, Clouds are still hanging around in the air at Spa:

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Source - www.imgur.com
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by mikeyg123 »

UnlikeUday wrote:As the picture proves it can rain in 1 section of the track whereas the other parts of the track could be dry. Currently, Clouds are still hanging around in the air at Spa:

Image
Source - http://www.imgur.com
Urgh, I can tell we will have the usual dry race with everyone desperately preserving tyres in case it rains. Then 10 minutes after the finish we will have a huge downpour.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by F1_Ernie »

Bottas starting 17th, he will be in the top 10 in no time. Wish I knew Sainz had a penalty.
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by BMWSauber84 »

It is difficult to see a path for victory for Mercedes really barring weather calamity. That Ferrari has looked so good in the dry. Even if he doesn't take the lead at the start, Ferrari will have free reign to use the undercut with Vettel seeing as Bottas is starting so far back. Wheras Raikkonen could easily make the same undercut tricky for Hamilton.

If it is dry then the Force India lads need to engage their brains. They can't be losing time scrapping with Raikkonen, Red Bulls and each other. Just have a clean race and take home steady points.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by TheGiantHogweed »

F1_Ernie wrote:Bottas starting 17th, he will be in the top 10 in no time. Wish I knew Sainz had a penalty.
Just asking, who else is starting below Bottas? If Sainz is, then 18th would make sense. Has another driver been knocked back?

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by UnlikeUday »

BMWSauber84 wrote:It is difficult to see a path for victory for Mercedes really barring weather calamity. That Ferrari has looked so good in the dry. Even if he doesn't take the lead at the start, Ferrari will have free reign to use the undercut with Vettel seeing as Bottas is starting so far back. Wheras Raikkonen could easily make the same undercut tricky for Hamilton.

If it is dry then the Force India lads need to engage their brains. They can't be losing time scrapping with Raikkonen, Red Bulls and each other. Just have a clean race and take home steady points.
Ferrari have slight edge on race pace. If Vettel does get ahead of Hamilton in the 1st corner, Vettel should have a comfortable win. Not only because of the race pace but also because Mercedes cars don't tend to run as efficiently when behind another car.
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by F1_Ernie »

TheGiantHogweed wrote:
F1_Ernie wrote:Bottas starting 17th, he will be in the top 10 in no time. Wish I knew Sainz had a penalty.
Just asking, who else is starting below Bottas? If Sainz is, then 18th would make sense. Has another driver been knocked back?

Sainz, Hulkeberg, I think Vandoorne.
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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by UnlikeUday »

Revised grid after Sainz & Vandoorne penalties:

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Johnson »

The gps analysis of previous races shows Ferraris power advantage isn’t top speed.

E.g. if both cars are at 100 mph and accelerating.

When the Ferrari hits 150 mph, Mercedes will be at 144.
When the Ferrari hits 180 mph, Mercedes will be at 175.
When the Ferrari hits top speed at 210, Mercedes will hit 208.

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Re: 2018 Belgian Grand Prix Race Thread

Post by Johnson »

The race is a two stopper and a very long lap, there will be 2 undercut opportunities and options to run a different strategy from the lead car (if he stops before you). This race is far from over after the first laps, provided Vettel, Hamilton run a similar pace. I am not discounting Kimi either, he could be up to 3rd within 3-4 laps and Ferrari could put him on an alt strategy to try to force Hamilton to pit or something. It could play into Kimi hands.

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