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pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

Junglist wrote:

Zoue wrote:

Junglist wrote:
There was an article, on my favorite news site Daily Mail, showing how Vettel had lost over 125 points to Hamilton over the last 2 years. The points swing from this year alone is at 80 points lost through his errors.

Lewis only has a 30 point lead and with some tracks that Ferrari will be stronger at and some tracks Lewis has been historically weak at - I don't see that 30 point lead lasting for more than 3 races before Vettel is the guy to beat again. That's 3 races at a push. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a huge chunk out Hamilton's lead after Singapore.

The only thing that gives Lewis a chance, in my eyes, is that this season whenever Sebastian wins, Lewis has been very close to him so often losing 7 points rather than more. But I don't see it being that this weekend. If he can only lose ~15 that would be good.

I think three races is very pessimistic. Hamilton's only been off the podium twice so far this year but you're expecting him to lose an average 10 points per race over the next three races? That would mean him finishing no higher than 5th on average, while he's only ever finished once that low all season so far. I think that's a particularly murky crystal ball you've got there

If Lewis just wins two more races this season - and he's not gone more than two races without a win so far - then all he has to do is finish 2nd in the rest, which shouldn't be that hard, given that he hasn't finished lower since Austria, and the title is his, no matter what Vettel does. And if Vettel ever finishes lower than 2nd he won't even need that.

Far from Lewis needing one thing to give him a chance, he already has one hand on the trophy. Vettel needs a small miracle and everything to go perfectly his way for the remaining races or he won't have a prayer.

Could be my maths is way out of course but this is now very much Hamilton's title to lose and Vettel can't afford even the smallest mistake

I'd trust your maths over mine, any day of the week! I just can't see what Lewis can do in the remaining tracks that Ferrari can't answer back to. And if they now are going to force Kimi to play rear gunner as Mercedes have made Bottas do, I really don't see anything but a Ferrari run starting from SG.

I didn't really think about the bit in bold, even though I mentioned Lewis has been finishing high when Sebastian wins. My crystal ball is not a reliable one and often has knee-jerk reactions. I won't be giving up my day job and I expect Mystic Meg has her job safe for a little bit longer (unless I'm right! )

This is what you shouldn't trust my maths - it was off

Long story short, I was looking at the position which gave ten points, rather than the gap to first. My bad

So to revise above, if Vettel wins the next three races and Lewis finishes no higher than 3rd, then he will claw back the deficit within three races, which makes things a little less bleak for Vettel than I first thought. But I still don't think there's any reason to think that would be the case - Vettel hasn't won three on the trot all year, while aside from the opening races Lewis hasn't gone longer than two races without a win, so we'd essentially be expecting Vettel to have his best run of form, coupled with Hamilton having his worst. And I don't really see why that should be the case, tbh.

Vettel has a slightly better chance that I originally calculated, but I still think it's Hamilton's title to lose now. It's not like he's powerless to do anything as the cars are pretty competitive. After the summer break, the Ferrari does look to have an edge, but an edge is all it is and not something that would allow Vettel to take it easy. And given what happened at Monza, on race pace there's currently pretty much nothing in it. Vettel winning now would go against the run of play so far

30 points is nothing really, not much more than a race win or 12 points in old money with 7 races to go, I'm not sure if this is just a case at getting lost with the size of a number and losing sight of the actual context?

It's not a commanding lead in the context that the Mercedes is slightly the slower car, so what would you rather have a 30 point lead or a car that may be a couple of tenths faster on most tracks?

mikeyg123 wrote:

Zoue wrote:

Junglist wrote:

Zoue wrote:

Junglist wrote:
There was an article, on my favorite news site Daily Mail, showing how Vettel had lost over 125 points to Hamilton over the last 2 years. The points swing from this year alone is at 80 points lost through his errors.

Lewis only has a 30 point lead and with some tracks that Ferrari will be stronger at and some tracks Lewis has been historically weak at - I don't see that 30 point lead lasting for more than 3 races before Vettel is the guy to beat again. That's 3 races at a push. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a huge chunk out Hamilton's lead after Singapore.

The only thing that gives Lewis a chance, in my eyes, is that this season whenever Sebastian wins, Lewis has been very close to him so often losing 7 points rather than more. But I don't see it being that this weekend. If he can only lose ~15 that would be good.

I think three races is very pessimistic. Hamilton's only been off the podium twice so far this year but you're expecting him to lose an average 10 points per race over the next three races? That would mean him finishing no higher than 5th on average, while he's only ever finished once that low all season so far. I think that's a particularly murky crystal ball you've got there

If Lewis just wins two more races this season - and he's not gone more than two races without a win so far - then all he has to do is finish 2nd in the rest, which shouldn't be that hard, given that he hasn't finished lower since Austria, and the title is his, no matter what Vettel does. And if Vettel ever finishes lower than 2nd he won't even need that.

Far from Lewis needing one thing to give him a chance, he already has one hand on the trophy. Vettel needs a small miracle and everything to go perfectly his way for the remaining races or he won't have a prayer.

Could be my maths is way out of course but this is now very much Hamilton's title to lose and Vettel can't afford even the smallest mistake

I'd trust your maths over mine, any day of the week! I just can't see what Lewis can do in the remaining tracks that Ferrari can't answer back to. And if they now are going to force Kimi to play rear gunner as Mercedes have made Bottas do, I really don't see anything but a Ferrari run starting from SG.

I didn't really think about the bit in bold, even though I mentioned Lewis has been finishing high when Sebastian wins. My crystal ball is not a reliable one and often has knee-jerk reactions. I won't be giving up my day job and I expect Mystic Meg has her job safe for a little bit longer (unless I'm right! )

This is what you shouldn't trust my maths - it was off

Long story short, I was looking at the position which gave ten points, rather than the gap to first. My bad

So to revise above, if Vettel wins the next three races and Lewis finishes no higher than 3rd, then he will claw back the deficit within three races, which makes things a little less bleak for Vettel than I first thought. But I still don't think there's any reason to think that would be the case - Vettel hasn't won three on the trot all year, while aside from the opening races Lewis hasn't gone longer than two races without a win, so we'd essentially be expecting Vettel to have his best run of form, coupled with Hamilton having his worst. And I don't really see why that should be the case, tbh.

Vettel has a slightly better chance that I originally calculated, but I still think it's Hamilton's title to lose now. It's not like he's powerless to do anything as the cars are pretty competitive. After the summer break, the Ferrari does look to have an edge, but an edge is all it is and not something that would allow Vettel to take it easy. And given what happened at Monza, on race pace there's currently pretty much nothing in it. Vettel winning now would go against the run of play so far

I don't agree it's that nailed on yet. One retirement basically wipes out Hamilton's entire lead. He could have an engine failure in Signapore and have Vettel 5 points behind him in the WDC with a slightly faster package.

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

Junglist wrote:

Zoue wrote:

Junglist wrote:
There was an article, on my favorite news site Daily Mail, showing how Vettel had lost over 125 points to Hamilton over the last 2 years. The points swing from this year alone is at 80 points lost through his errors.

Lewis only has a 30 point lead and with some tracks that Ferrari will be stronger at and some tracks Lewis has been historically weak at - I don't see that 30 point lead lasting for more than 3 races before Vettel is the guy to beat again. That's 3 races at a push. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a huge chunk out Hamilton's lead after Singapore.

The only thing that gives Lewis a chance, in my eyes, is that this season whenever Sebastian wins, Lewis has been very close to him so often losing 7 points rather than more. But I don't see it being that this weekend. If he can only lose ~15 that would be good.

I think three races is very pessimistic. Hamilton's only been off the podium twice so far this year but you're expecting him to lose an average 10 points per race over the next three races? That would mean him finishing no higher than 5th on average, while he's only ever finished once that low all season so far. I think that's a particularly murky crystal ball you've got there

If Lewis just wins two more races this season - and he's not gone more than two races without a win so far - then all he has to do is finish 2nd in the rest, which shouldn't be that hard, given that he hasn't finished lower since Austria, and the title is his, no matter what Vettel does. And if Vettel ever finishes lower than 2nd he won't even need that.

Far from Lewis needing one thing to give him a chance, he already has one hand on the trophy. Vettel needs a small miracle and everything to go perfectly his way for the remaining races or he won't have a prayer.

Could be my maths is way out of course but this is now very much Hamilton's title to lose and Vettel can't afford even the smallest mistake

I'd trust your maths over mine, any day of the week! I just can't see what Lewis can do in the remaining tracks that Ferrari can't answer back to. And if they now are going to force Kimi to play rear gunner as Mercedes have made Bottas do, I really don't see anything but a Ferrari run starting from SG.

I didn't really think about the bit in bold, even though I mentioned Lewis has been finishing high when Sebastian wins. My crystal ball is not a reliable one and often has knee-jerk reactions. I won't be giving up my day job and I expect Mystic Meg has her job safe for a little bit longer (unless I'm right! )

This is what you shouldn't trust my maths - it was off

Long story short, I was looking at the position which gave ten points, rather than the gap to first. My bad

So to revise above, if Vettel wins the next three races and Lewis finishes no higher than 3rd, then he will claw back the deficit within three races, which makes things a little less bleak for Vettel than I first thought. But I still don't think there's any reason to think that would be the case - Vettel hasn't won three on the trot all year, while aside from the opening races Lewis hasn't gone longer than two races without a win, so we'd essentially be expecting Vettel to have his best run of form, coupled with Hamilton having his worst. And I don't really see why that should be the case, tbh.

Vettel has a slightly better chance that I originally calculated, but I still think it's Hamilton's title to lose now. It's not like he's powerless to do anything as the cars are pretty competitive. After the summer break, the Ferrari does look to have an edge, but an edge is all it is and not something that would allow Vettel to take it easy. And given what happened at Monza, on race pace there's currently pretty much nothing in it. Vettel winning now would go against the run of play so far

30 points is nothing really, not much more than a race win or 12 points in old money with 7 races to go, I'm not sure if this is just a case at getting lost with the size of a number and losing sight of the actual context?

It's not a commanding lead in the context that the Mercedes is slightly the slower car, so what would you rather have a 30 point lead or a car that may be a couple of tenths faster on most tracks?

F1_Ernie wrote:You cant look at the trends of this season and make the assumption that's how the rest of the season will go. Hamilton can't hope for more Vettel mistakes, poor team strategy and wet weather. Hamilton has been driving at a high level and jumping on Ferrari's mistakes. Sooner or later Ferrari and Vettel will take advantage of their package, both Red cars qualified ahead of Hamilton in Singapore and Russia. If Hamilton has a 30 point lead after them races I will feel a lot happier.

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

Junglist wrote:

Zoue wrote: I think three races is very pessimistic. Hamilton's only been off the podium twice so far this year but you're expecting him to lose an average 10 points per race over the next three races? That would mean him finishing no higher than 5th on average, while he's only ever finished once that low all season so far. I think that's a particularly murky crystal ball you've got there

If Lewis just wins two more races this season - and he's not gone more than two races without a win so far - then all he has to do is finish 2nd in the rest, which shouldn't be that hard, given that he hasn't finished lower since Austria, and the title is his, no matter what Vettel does. And if Vettel ever finishes lower than 2nd he won't even need that.

Far from Lewis needing one thing to give him a chance, he already has one hand on the trophy. Vettel needs a small miracle and everything to go perfectly his way for the remaining races or he won't have a prayer.

Could be my maths is way out of course but this is now very much Hamilton's title to lose and Vettel can't afford even the smallest mistake

I'd trust your maths over mine, any day of the week! I just can't see what Lewis can do in the remaining tracks that Ferrari can't answer back to. And if they now are going to force Kimi to play rear gunner as Mercedes have made Bottas do, I really don't see anything but a Ferrari run starting from SG.

I didn't really think about the bit in bold, even though I mentioned Lewis has been finishing high when Sebastian wins. My crystal ball is not a reliable one and often has knee-jerk reactions. I won't be giving up my day job and I expect Mystic Meg has her job safe for a little bit longer (unless I'm right! )

This is what you shouldn't trust my maths - it was off

Long story short, I was looking at the position which gave ten points, rather than the gap to first. My bad

So to revise above, if Vettel wins the next three races and Lewis finishes no higher than 3rd, then he will claw back the deficit within three races, which makes things a little less bleak for Vettel than I first thought. But I still don't think there's any reason to think that would be the case - Vettel hasn't won three on the trot all year, while aside from the opening races Lewis hasn't gone longer than two races without a win, so we'd essentially be expecting Vettel to have his best run of form, coupled with Hamilton having his worst. And I don't really see why that should be the case, tbh.

Vettel has a slightly better chance that I originally calculated, but I still think it's Hamilton's title to lose now. It's not like he's powerless to do anything as the cars are pretty competitive. After the summer break, the Ferrari does look to have an edge, but an edge is all it is and not something that would allow Vettel to take it easy. And given what happened at Monza, on race pace there's currently pretty much nothing in it. Vettel winning now would go against the run of play so far

30 points is nothing really, not much more than a race win or 12 points in old money with 7 races to go, I'm not sure if this is just a case at getting lost with the size of a number and losing sight of the actual context?

It's not a commanding lead in the context that the Mercedes is slightly the slower car, so what would you rather have a 30 point lead or a car that may be a couple of tenths faster on most tracks?

If you're asking whether I'd rather be in Vettel's position or Hamilton's, then I'd have to say the latter. We're not talking about a 2012-type situation where Vettel has a far superior car. The differences are marginal at best and seem to fluctuate quite wildly from circuit to circuit. I don't see Hamilton as the underdog in this scenario

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

Junglist wrote: I'd trust your maths over mine, any day of the week! I just can't see what Lewis can do in the remaining tracks that Ferrari can't answer back to. And if they now are going to force Kimi to play rear gunner as Mercedes have made Bottas do, I really don't see anything but a Ferrari run starting from SG.

I didn't really think about the bit in bold, even though I mentioned Lewis has been finishing high when Sebastian wins. My crystal ball is not a reliable one and often has knee-jerk reactions. I won't be giving up my day job and I expect Mystic Meg has her job safe for a little bit longer (unless I'm right! )

This is what you shouldn't trust my maths - it was off

Long story short, I was looking at the position which gave ten points, rather than the gap to first. My bad

So to revise above, if Vettel wins the next three races and Lewis finishes no higher than 3rd, then he will claw back the deficit within three races, which makes things a little less bleak for Vettel than I first thought. But I still don't think there's any reason to think that would be the case - Vettel hasn't won three on the trot all year, while aside from the opening races Lewis hasn't gone longer than two races without a win, so we'd essentially be expecting Vettel to have his best run of form, coupled with Hamilton having his worst. And I don't really see why that should be the case, tbh.

Vettel has a slightly better chance that I originally calculated, but I still think it's Hamilton's title to lose now. It's not like he's powerless to do anything as the cars are pretty competitive. After the summer break, the Ferrari does look to have an edge, but an edge is all it is and not something that would allow Vettel to take it easy. And given what happened at Monza, on race pace there's currently pretty much nothing in it. Vettel winning now would go against the run of play so far

30 points is nothing really, not much more than a race win or 12 points in old money with 7 races to go, I'm not sure if this is just a case at getting lost with the size of a number and losing sight of the actual context?

It's not a commanding lead in the context that the Mercedes is slightly the slower car, so what would you rather have a 30 point lead or a car that may be a couple of tenths faster on most tracks?

If you're asking whether I'd rather be in Vettel's position or Hamilton's, then I'd have to say the latter. We're not talking about a 2012-type situation where Vettel has a far superior car. The differences are marginal at best and seem to fluctuate quite wildly from circuit to circuit. I don't see Hamilton as the underdog in this scenario

It's not fluctuated for a while now in terms of car performance and that before in part was because of the skimmed tyres they had in 3 races which clearly helped Mercedes.

What has fluctuated the results recently is the weather and Vettel's mistakes, it's in Vettel's hands to cut out the mistakes although he can't control the weather itself.

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote: This is what you shouldn't trust my maths - it was off

Long story short, I was looking at the position which gave ten points, rather than the gap to first. My bad

So to revise above, if Vettel wins the next three races and Lewis finishes no higher than 3rd, then he will claw back the deficit within three races, which makes things a little less bleak for Vettel than I first thought. But I still don't think there's any reason to think that would be the case - Vettel hasn't won three on the trot all year, while aside from the opening races Lewis hasn't gone longer than two races without a win, so we'd essentially be expecting Vettel to have his best run of form, coupled with Hamilton having his worst. And I don't really see why that should be the case, tbh.

Vettel has a slightly better chance that I originally calculated, but I still think it's Hamilton's title to lose now. It's not like he's powerless to do anything as the cars are pretty competitive. After the summer break, the Ferrari does look to have an edge, but an edge is all it is and not something that would allow Vettel to take it easy. And given what happened at Monza, on race pace there's currently pretty much nothing in it. Vettel winning now would go against the run of play so far

30 points is nothing really, not much more than a race win or 12 points in old money with 7 races to go, I'm not sure if this is just a case at getting lost with the size of a number and losing sight of the actual context?

It's not a commanding lead in the context that the Mercedes is slightly the slower car, so what would you rather have a 30 point lead or a car that may be a couple of tenths faster on most tracks?

If you're asking whether I'd rather be in Vettel's position or Hamilton's, then I'd have to say the latter. We're not talking about a 2012-type situation where Vettel has a far superior car. The differences are marginal at best and seem to fluctuate quite wildly from circuit to circuit. I don't see Hamilton as the underdog in this scenario

It's not fluctuated for a while now in terms of car performance and that before in part was because of the skimmed tyres they had in 3 races which clearly helped Mercedes.

What has fluctuated the results recently is the weather and Vettel's mistakes, it's in Vettel's hands to cut out the mistakes although he can't control the weather itself.

I think it has. If you look from Spa to Monza there were noticeable differences in the Mercedes performance in particular. They went from having relatively poor traction at Spa to having one of the best at Monza and this helped them close the gap to the extent that the cars looked more or less equal in Italy (qualifying aside, where Ferrari did look quicker).

I agree that Vettel's mistake at Monza has made the gap look bigger than it should be, but my point is that over the remaining races there is no reason to believe that Vettel will suddenly be able to pull out a 30-pt lead (net) over Hamilton. People are writing as though Hamilton has a mountain to climb, but from my perspective I think he's sitting in the hot seat and it's Vettel who really has to be afraid.

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:30 points is nothing really, not much more than a race win or 12 points in old money with 7 races to go, I'm not sure if this is just a case at getting lost with the size of a number and losing sight of the actual context?

It's not a commanding lead in the context that the Mercedes is slightly the slower car, so what would you rather have a 30 point lead or a car that may be a couple of tenths faster on most tracks?

If you're asking whether I'd rather be in Vettel's position or Hamilton's, then I'd have to say the latter. We're not talking about a 2012-type situation where Vettel has a far superior car. The differences are marginal at best and seem to fluctuate quite wildly from circuit to circuit. I don't see Hamilton as the underdog in this scenario

It's not fluctuated for a while now in terms of car performance and that before in part was because of the skimmed tyres they had in 3 races which clearly helped Mercedes.

What has fluctuated the results recently is the weather and Vettel's mistakes, it's in Vettel's hands to cut out the mistakes although he can't control the weather itself.

I think it has. If you look from Spa to Monza there were noticeable differences in the Mercedes performance in particular. They went from having relatively poor traction at Spa to having one of the best at Monza and this helped them close the gap to the extent that the cars looked more or less equal in Italy (qualifying aside, where Ferrari did look quicker).

I agree that Vettel's mistake at Monza has made the gap look bigger than it should be, but my point is that over the remaining races there is no reason to believe that Vettel will suddenly be able to pull out a 30-pt lead (net) over Hamilton. People are writing as though Hamilton has a mountain to climb, but from my perspective I think he's sitting in the hot seat and it's Vettel who really has to be afraid.

Being quicker in qualifying is a big thing in itself, in the race itself Hamilton was racing the slower Ferrari driver so you can't define the actual performances of the cars, general opinion was that the race was there for Ferrari to win.

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote: If you're asking whether I'd rather be in Vettel's position or Hamilton's, then I'd have to say the latter. We're not talking about a 2012-type situation where Vettel has a far superior car. The differences are marginal at best and seem to fluctuate quite wildly from circuit to circuit. I don't see Hamilton as the underdog in this scenario

It's not fluctuated for a while now in terms of car performance and that before in part was because of the skimmed tyres they had in 3 races which clearly helped Mercedes.

What has fluctuated the results recently is the weather and Vettel's mistakes, it's in Vettel's hands to cut out the mistakes although he can't control the weather itself.

I think it has. If you look from Spa to Monza there were noticeable differences in the Mercedes performance in particular. They went from having relatively poor traction at Spa to having one of the best at Monza and this helped them close the gap to the extent that the cars looked more or less equal in Italy (qualifying aside, where Ferrari did look quicker).

I agree that Vettel's mistake at Monza has made the gap look bigger than it should be, but my point is that over the remaining races there is no reason to believe that Vettel will suddenly be able to pull out a 30-pt lead (net) over Hamilton. People are writing as though Hamilton has a mountain to climb, but from my perspective I think he's sitting in the hot seat and it's Vettel who really has to be afraid.

Being quicker in qualifying is a big thing in itself, in the race itself Hamilton was racing the slower Ferrari driver so you can't define the actual performances of the cars, general opinion was that the race was there for Ferrari to win.

Agreed that qualifying confers an advantage. In Monza Hamilton was comfortably quicker than Kimi. Understand what you are saying about Vettel being a better benchmark but how much faster than Kimi does Hamilton have to be before we acknowledge that maybe he's not driving a slower car?

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:It's not fluctuated for a while now in terms of car performance and that before in part was because of the skimmed tyres they had in 3 races which clearly helped Mercedes.

What has fluctuated the results recently is the weather and Vettel's mistakes, it's in Vettel's hands to cut out the mistakes although he can't control the weather itself.

I think it has. If you look from Spa to Monza there were noticeable differences in the Mercedes performance in particular. They went from having relatively poor traction at Spa to having one of the best at Monza and this helped them close the gap to the extent that the cars looked more or less equal in Italy (qualifying aside, where Ferrari did look quicker).

I agree that Vettel's mistake at Monza has made the gap look bigger than it should be, but my point is that over the remaining races there is no reason to believe that Vettel will suddenly be able to pull out a 30-pt lead (net) over Hamilton. People are writing as though Hamilton has a mountain to climb, but from my perspective I think he's sitting in the hot seat and it's Vettel who really has to be afraid.

Being quicker in qualifying is a big thing in itself, in the race itself Hamilton was racing the slower Ferrari driver so you can't define the actual performances of the cars, general opinion was that the race was there for Ferrari to win.

Agreed that qualifying confers an advantage. In Monza Hamilton was comfortably quicker than Kimi. Understand what you are saying about Vettel being a better benchmark but how much faster than Kimi does Hamilton have to be before we acknowledge that maybe he's not driving a slower car?

I think you have to look at the last few races in general, the gaps will fluctuate, Monza was close, Spa Hamilton said Vettel was 3 to 4 tenths quicker, going forward at best Mercedes will be close at worse Ferrari will be quicker, that's how it looks to me.

I think if you have generally the quicker car, certainly quicker in qualifying which confers a big advantage, then you are more in control of your destiny and 30 points is not massive, even Vettel has said this.

pokerman wrote:

F1_Ernie wrote:You cant look at the trends of this season and make the assumption that's how the rest of the season will go. Hamilton can't hope for more Vettel mistakes, poor team strategy and wet weather. Hamilton has been driving at a high level and jumping on Ferrari's mistakes. Sooner or later Ferrari and Vettel will take advantage of their package, both Red cars qualified ahead of Hamilton in Singapore and Russia. If Hamilton has a 30 point lead after them races I will feel a lot happier.

It kind of reminds me of the 2010 season, the Red Bull was obviously the better car in most races, but a combination of Vettel's mistakes and reliability problems kept things close even had Vettel behind like he is now, but then Vettel cut out the mistakes and went on a run of winning races, although a blown engine whilst he was leading in Korea nearly did for him.

sandman1347 wrote:

pokerman wrote:

F1_Ernie wrote:You cant look at the trends of this season and make the assumption that's how the rest of the season will go. Hamilton can't hope for more Vettel mistakes, poor team strategy and wet weather. Hamilton has been driving at a high level and jumping on Ferrari's mistakes. Sooner or later Ferrari and Vettel will take advantage of their package, both Red cars qualified ahead of Hamilton in Singapore and Russia. If Hamilton has a 30 point lead after them races I will feel a lot happier.

It kind of reminds me of the 2010 season, the Red Bull was obviously the better car in most races, but a combination of Vettel's mistakes and reliability problems kept things close even had Vettel behind like he is now, but then Vettel cut out the mistakes and went on a run of winning races, although a blown engine whilst he was leading in Korea nearly did for him.

Bad comparison. This season Vettel has had bullet proof reliability while Hamilton has already had one mechanical DNF.

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote: I think it has. If you look from Spa to Monza there were noticeable differences in the Mercedes performance in particular. They went from having relatively poor traction at Spa to having one of the best at Monza and this helped them close the gap to the extent that the cars looked more or less equal in Italy (qualifying aside, where Ferrari did look quicker).

I agree that Vettel's mistake at Monza has made the gap look bigger than it should be, but my point is that over the remaining races there is no reason to believe that Vettel will suddenly be able to pull out a 30-pt lead (net) over Hamilton. People are writing as though Hamilton has a mountain to climb, but from my perspective I think he's sitting in the hot seat and it's Vettel who really has to be afraid.

Being quicker in qualifying is a big thing in itself, in the race itself Hamilton was racing the slower Ferrari driver so you can't define the actual performances of the cars, general opinion was that the race was there for Ferrari to win.

Agreed that qualifying confers an advantage. In Monza Hamilton was comfortably quicker than Kimi. Understand what you are saying about Vettel being a better benchmark but how much faster than Kimi does Hamilton have to be before we acknowledge that maybe he's not driving a slower car?

I think you have to look at the last few races in general, the gaps will fluctuate, Monza was close, Spa Hamilton said Vettel was 3 to 4 tenths quicker, going forward at best Mercedes will be close at worse Ferrari will be quicker, that's how it looks to me.

I think if you have generally the quicker car, certainly quicker in qualifying which confers a big advantage, then you are more in control of your destiny and 30 points is not massive, even Vettel has said this.

Agree to a point. 30 points isn't massive but - a DNF aside - with only 7 races to go it is. Agree that qualifying confers a big advantage and if they were level Ferrari's inroads in that area would make Vettel the favourite. But do we really see Hamilton not winning any more races this year? I think he will, and then that 30 points becomes 37 at least to overcome with only 6 races to do that in. Not impossible of course and a DNF would certain change everything but for me I think that might ne a hurdle too far. Not trying to claim any crystal ball or anything but I don't see Ferrari suddenly raising their game so significantly

tootsie323 wrote:Whilst Singapore is allegedly a bogey circuit for Mercedes, Jolyon Palmer's column in the BBC states that Merc has won this race in three of the last four seasons. Yes, it could be said that last year's win was against (practice / quali) form but history isn't exactly against Hamilton in this regard.

Edited for spelling

TedStriker wrote:Put Seb in the Mercedes and Lewis in the Ferrari from now on, swap the points too. There's not many out there that would bet hard cash on Seb winning the championship even from 30 points ahead.

The Ferrari is clearly the car to be in, but is it good enough for Seb to beat Lewis? Seb must really hope so or it will be first time in a very long time that the fastest car doesn't win the WDC. I really do feel that if Seb doesn't take the WDC this year, his stock will drop massively and he'll be out of a top team drive in no time.

Odd thing is, it could well be Kimi that decides the WDC this year if he takes any more points off his team mate.

Blake wrote:

TedStriker wrote:Put Seb in the Mercedes and Lewis in the Ferrari from now on, swap the points too. There's not many out there that would bet hard cash on Seb winning the championship even from 30 points ahead.

The Ferrari is clearly the car to be in, but is it good enough for Seb to beat Lewis? Seb must really hope so or it will be first time in a very long time that the fastest car doesn't win the WDC. I really do feel that if Seb doesn't take the WDC this year, his stock will drop massively and he'll be out of a top team drive in no time.

Odd thing is, it could well be Kimi that decides the WDC this year if he takes any more points off his team mate.

I disagree. Baring a DNF, 30 points is a good size lead, we're it Seb or Lewis... I'd put my money on the big points leader.

pokerman wrote:

Blake wrote:

TedStriker wrote:Put Seb in the Mercedes and Lewis in the Ferrari from now on, swap the points too. There's not many out there that would bet hard cash on Seb winning the championship even from 30 points ahead.

The Ferrari is clearly the car to be in, but is it good enough for Seb to beat Lewis? Seb must really hope so or it will be first time in a very long time that the fastest car doesn't win the WDC. I really do feel that if Seb doesn't take the WDC this year, his stock will drop massively and he'll be out of a top team drive in no time.

Odd thing is, it could well be Kimi that decides the WDC this year if he takes any more points off his team mate.

I disagree. Baring a DNF, 30 points is a good size lead, we're it Seb or Lewis... I'd put my money on the big points leader.

I'd back what I believed to be the fastest car.

Blake wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Blake wrote:

TedStriker wrote:Put Seb in the Mercedes and Lewis in the Ferrari from now on, swap the points too. There's not many out there that would bet hard cash on Seb winning the championship even from 30 points ahead.

The Ferrari is clearly the car to be in, but is it good enough for Seb to beat Lewis? Seb must really hope so or it will be first time in a very long time that the fastest car doesn't win the WDC. I really do feel that if Seb doesn't take the WDC this year, his stock will drop massively and he'll be out of a top team drive in no time.

Odd thing is, it could well be Kimi that decides the WDC this year if he takes any more points off his team mate.

I disagree. Baring a DNF, 30 points is a good size lead, we're it Seb or Lewis... I'd put my money on the big points leader.

I'd back what I believed to be the fastest car.

That is your choice, but it will need to be a very dominate car to make up the points without something in the way of reliability of bad luck issues for the point leader. The Ferrari is far from dominate at this point.

sandman1347 wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:

sandman1347 wrote:e]
This excuse makes no sense at all Lotus. So Alonso should be given a pass because he joined a new team but Hamilton in his first season should not? Coming to a new team is one thing but moving up to F1 for the first time is a more extreme change by far. Whatever was new for Alonso was also certainly new for Hamilton that year.

The excuse about favoritism is also a complete fabrication. There was NO favoritism whatsoever against Alonso and, in fact, he was the one favored through the first 5 races of the season in terms of always qualifying lighter and gaining fuel strategy preference. There is no mitigating excuse for Alonso. There are no accurate fuel correction figures available because that all relies on guestimation. The fact is that once they started alternating fuel preference, Hamilton beat Alonso 8-4 in qualifying and up until the final two races, he had put Alonso in the rear view mirror.

Well to be fair I was putting up a one sided exaggeration also to be clear. He shouldn't be given a pass of course, it's just part of the context as much as Lewis being a rookie is, it all should be under consideration when talking about the year. Lewis was new to the race team but not McLaren, he wasn't new to Bridgestones either (Different type though I think).

It's not complete fabrication, in the Mark Hughes piece about the qualifying details he mentions in the comments section about who the team favoured and he mentions the races early Alonso got preference but there was clearly a shift post Hungary, Hughes replied "You Betcha" to the question. To what that entails can be argued about of course, it could simply mean they wanted him to win, but I didn't mean it meant Lewis got all the fuel strategy preference after that, he didn't. Hughes also says his figures come from the teams so I don't think that's a guesstimation to be fair.

Here's the Hughes quote in full...

Mark Hughes wrote:Yes it was indeed a failure of management Bradley. But he didn't favour Hamilton - not until after Hungary at least - but he failed to favour Alonso. Not the same thing. He bent over backwards trying to give equality - but equality isn't what he'd promised Alonso. He'd promised him number 1 and just assumed that Hamilton wouldn't be able to threaten that status in his rookie year. But as well as pulling Hamilton off Alonso's back at Monaco, preventing LH from trying to use his greater fuel load to overcut ahead at the stops, he'd also not allowed Hamilton to test the revised car pre-Spanish GP, as Alonso had asked that Hamilton not be there. So, Hamilton was definitely not being favoured - until Fernando threatened to give the FIA the contents of his lap top in Hungary. THEN Hamilton was being favoured. You betcha.

https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/opin ... -dominance

Now THAT is a lopsided article if I've ever read one. Talking about Alonso's performance against teammates while completely ignoring his general #1 status over most of them and giving him the nod even in seasons where his teammates beat him. He also seemingly includes races where Alonso was blatantly given preference or where his teammates were moved out of his way as wins for Alonso head to head despite removing some of his losses due to external factors. I don't see anything to suggest that Hughes has figures from McLaren on who qualified faster fuel-corrected in 2007 so I can't go along with that assertion.

Anyway the important point is that Lewis was literally in his rookie season and very quickly got the measure of Alonso. The Lewis Hamilton of today is light years beyond the Lewis Hamilton of 2007. The Fernando Alonso of today is probably about the same as the Alonso of 2007.

To be fair it's the Alonso part of his look at the numbers behind Lewis,Seb and Alonso against their team mates so it's going to be lopsided to a degree but he states it's only comparable sessions he includes and I've no reason to doubt it when he does it for any of them. The comment about getting his data from the teams when it comes to fuel correction is in the comments section of this article where he touches on some of the context such as being a Number 1.. https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/opin ... statistics

Well again with that important point your only choosing to put forward the context from Lewis's side of being a rookie which is probably why you think you're being asked to pretend whereas really it's just others might look at both drivers sets of circumstances to come to any conclusions. I think they've both improved since then.

We don't have to agree Lotus and I respect your right to your own view on the matter. Putting forth this article as though it's an appeal to authority is just not particularly convincing though. Hughes has his own way of coming up with his numbers but not everyone will agree with his reasoning, methodology or conclusions.

In the end, for me, Hamilton and Alonso have been the two best drivers in F1 ever since Lewis came into the sport (Alonso was already at the top of the list for a couple of years by then). There isn't a big margin between them and as teammates, the battle could go either way depending on who has the better season or better luck. For me though, the preponderance of evidence puts Lewis above Fernando on the all time pecking order at this point. He did best Alonso in his rookie year as a teammate and he has achieved significantly more in his career despite rarely getting the #1 status that Alonso has had throughout the vast majority of his career. Lewis has also brought a massive upturn in performance to the teams he's driven for while Alonso's impact on his teams has been a bit of a double edged sword.

I do think that Alonso should get recognition for not having the best car for a very long stretch of his prime years and for generally having to hustle around with cars that were a bit off the pace most of the time. That alone cannot overcome a driver who has achieved what Lewis has though. Had Fernando managed to actually pull off one of those post-2006 title challenges, it would have made a huge difference to his overall legacy but without having done that, I don't think you can place him at the highest all-time levels. That has to be reserved for the people who actually achieve the most; not the ones who's fans think could have achieved more if circumstances allowed.

Exediron wrote:

Blake wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Blake wrote:

TedStriker wrote:Put Seb in the Mercedes and Lewis in the Ferrari from now on, swap the points too. There's not many out there that would bet hard cash on Seb winning the championship even from 30 points ahead.

The Ferrari is clearly the car to be in, but is it good enough for Seb to beat Lewis? Seb must really hope so or it will be first time in a very long time that the fastest car doesn't win the WDC. I really do feel that if Seb doesn't take the WDC this year, his stock will drop massively and he'll be out of a top team drive in no time.

Odd thing is, it could well be Kimi that decides the WDC this year if he takes any more points off his team mate.

I disagree. Baring a DNF, 30 points is a good size lead, we're it Seb or Lewis... I'd put my money on the big points leader.

I'd back what I believed to be the fastest car.

That is your choice, but it will need to be a very dominate car to make up the points without something in the way of reliability of bad luck issues for the point leader. The Ferrari is far from dominate at this point.

Yes, and lest we forget, Hamilton has already had a mechanical DNF - Seb has not. That doesn't mean it's guaranteed to happen, but it means probability is already skewed to make it as close as it is. With equal reliability, the gap is even bigger.

Even with the 30 points we have now, with 7 races remaining and assuming the cars finish no further apart than 1-3, Vettel needs to win 5 out of the 7. Does the Ferrari/Vettel package really have that sort of advantage over Mercedes/Hamilton?

Lojik wrote:While it is absolutely possible for Vettel to pip Hamilton, he will have to do in this next 7 races what he has not come close to doing in the first 14


Source:https://i.imgur.com/9j6hie1.jpg

Black_Flag_11 wrote:

Lojik wrote:While it is absolutely possible for Vettel to pip Hamilton, he will have to do in this next 7 races what he has not come close to doing in the first 14


Source:https://i.imgur.com/9j6hie1.jpg

Yeah it looks pretty unlikely. Just in the above there are 3 races where Mercedes was clearly best and plenty that are debatable.

We need a poor result for Hamilton in Singapore/Russia with Vettel winning to get things close again, fortunately Singapore has always been a poor Mercedes track and Russia a poor Hamilton track so if you were to choose any of the upcoming races where that's most likely to happen its these next two.

mikeyg123 wrote:

Black_Flag_11 wrote:

Lojik wrote:While it is absolutely possible for Vettel to pip Hamilton, he will have to do in this next 7 races what he has not come close to doing in the first 14


Source:https://i.imgur.com/9j6hie1.jpg

Yeah it looks pretty unlikely. Just in the above there are 3 races where Mercedes was clearly best and plenty that are debatable.

We need a poor result for Hamilton in Singapore/Russia with Vettel winning to get things close again, fortunately Singapore has always been a poor Mercedes track and Russia a poor Hamilton track so if you were to choose any of the upcoming races where that's most likely to happen its these next two.

I think Vettel needs a Hamilton retirement or no score. If he beats Hamilton in 5 of the 7 races that may be enough. With a bad Merc track and two bad Lewis tracks to come that could happen but It's not likely.

Black_Flag_11 wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:

Black_Flag_11 wrote:

Lojik wrote:While it is absolutely possible for Vettel to pip Hamilton, he will have to do in this next 7 races what he has not come close to doing in the first 14


Source:https://i.imgur.com/9j6hie1.jpg

Yeah it looks pretty unlikely. Just in the above there are 3 races where Mercedes was clearly best and plenty that are debatable.

We need a poor result for Hamilton in Singapore/Russia with Vettel winning to get things close again, fortunately Singapore has always been a poor Mercedes track and Russia a poor Hamilton track so if you were to choose any of the upcoming races where that's most likely to happen its these next two.

I think Vettel needs a Hamilton retirement or no score. If he beats Hamilton in 5 of the 7 races that may be enough. With a bad Merc track and two bad Lewis tracks to come that could happen but It's not likely.

Not necessarily a no score, just a relatively low score. If Hamilton finished say 4th in Singapore (Possible assuming Red Bull & Ferrari faster) and 3rd in Russia (Possible assuming Ferrari faster) with Vettel winning both then the gap would be down to just 7 points.

mikeyg123 wrote:

Black_Flag_11 wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:

Black_Flag_11 wrote:

Lojik wrote:While it is absolutely possible for Vettel to pip Hamilton, he will have to do in this next 7 races what he has not come close to doing in the first 14


Source:https://i.imgur.com/9j6hie1.jpg

Yeah it looks pretty unlikely. Just in the above there are 3 races where Mercedes was clearly best and plenty that are debatable.

We need a poor result for Hamilton in Singapore/Russia with Vettel winning to get things close again, fortunately Singapore has always been a poor Mercedes track and Russia a poor Hamilton track so if you were to choose any of the upcoming races where that's most likely to happen its these next two.

I think Vettel needs a Hamilton retirement or no score. If he beats Hamilton in 5 of the 7 races that may be enough. With a bad Merc track and two bad Lewis tracks to come that could happen but It's not likely.

Not necessarily a no score, just a relatively low score. If Hamilton finished say 4th in Singapore (Possible assuming Red Bull & Ferrari faster) and 3rd in Russia (Possible assuming Ferrari faster) with Vettel winning both then the gap would be down to just 7 points.

That would still leave Vettel needing to beat Hamilton in 5 out of the last 7 races. As I said, It's possible but unlikely on current form I think.

Teddy007 wrote:Got to love it when people say 30 points isn't much.... yes.. it is a single DNF or requires a single team to pretty much dominate. People seem to forget that a single driver hasn't dominated so many races in the last 18 months.

Which means Sebastian will win another race sooner or later but so will Lewis Hamilton.

If Lewis doesn't make mistakes and finishes 2nd for the next 3 with Sebastian winning them. That's only 15 points being crawled back. What is likely that Seb will win 3? Lewis and Merc have shown in the last 4 races that they don't need the best car to get a result. It takes one good bit of pace, luck, safety car or even mistake by Ferrari for the win to be grabbed.

Ferrari must be hoping for a DNF. It's unlikely Sebastian will go off and dominate the remaining races.. what we have seen lately is Merc take the fight to Ferrari. We are at the point where I wouldn't predict the race winner.

mikeyg123 wrote:I wouldn't say it is that unlikely. Only bad luck/brain farts has caused Vettel to not win all of the 4 previous races.

Teddy007 wrote:Got to love it when people say 30 points isn't much.... yes.. it is a single DNF or requires a single team to pretty much dominate. People seem to forget that a single driver hasn't dominated so many races in the last 18 months.

Which means Sebastian will win another race sooner or later but so will Lewis Hamilton.

If Lewis doesn't make mistakes and finishes 2nd for the next 3 with Sebastian winning them. That's only 15 points being crawled back. What is likely that Seb will win 3? Lewis and Merc have shown in the last 4 races that they don't need the best car to get a result. It takes one good bit of pace, luck, safety car or even mistake by Ferrari for the win to be grabbed.

Ferrari must be hoping for a DNF. It's unlikely Sebastian will go off and dominate the remaining races.. what we have seen lately is Merc take the fight to Ferrari. We are at the point where I wouldn't predict the race winner.

f1madman wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:I wouldn't say it is that unlikely. Only bad luck/brain farts has caused Vettel to not win all of the 4 previous races.

Actually I'm coming round to agreeing. It's still in Sebs hands, just. If he drives at his best for the last 7 races he probably will be champion.

mikeyg123 wrote:

Junglist wrote:I wouldn't say it is that unlikely. Only bad luck/brain farts has caused Vettel to not win all of the 4 previous races.

Actually I'm coming round to agreeing. It's still in Sebs hands, just. If he drives at his best for the last 7 races he probably will be champion.

Junglist wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:

Junglist wrote:I wouldn't say it is that unlikely. Only bad luck/brain farts has caused Vettel to not win all of the 4 previous races.

Actually I'm coming round to agreeing. It's still in Sebs hands, just. If he drives at his best for the last 7 races he probably will be champion.

And that is exactly what I think will happen. People are writing Seb of too soon. The man is a 4x champion he will get his head down and as soon as he does, mark my words, he will lead the championship.

.

Junglist wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:

Junglist wrote:I wouldn't say it is that unlikely. Only bad luck/brain farts has caused Vettel to not win all of the 4 previous races.

Actually I'm coming round to agreeing. It's still in Sebs hands, just. If he drives at his best for the last 7 races he probably will be champion.

And that is exactly what I think will happen. People are writing Seb of too soon. The man is a 4x champion he will get his head down and as soon as he does, mark my words, he will lead the championship.

Can we get a poll going? I'd be surprised if more people thought he wasn't going to win.