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Tomorrow's race is poised to be a nail biter!

Advantage Mercedes this time with Kimi out of position.

Mercedes race pace was mediocre in Friday. If it's a clean race then Vettel has this in the big.

davidheath461 wrote:Mercedes race pace was mediocre in Friday. If it's a clean race then Vettel has this in the big.

I get the feeling Ferrari will get caught out on strategy again with the two Mercedes being able to split theirs.

Black_Flag_11 wrote:

davidheath461 wrote:Mercedes race pace was mediocre in Friday. If it's a clean race then Vettel has this in the big.

I get the feeling Ferrari will get caught out on strategy again with the two Mercedes being able to split theirs.

That's forgetting Kimi is going to force others into pitting, and if he can clear the bulls quickly.

Rockie wrote:

Black_Flag_11 wrote:

davidheath461 wrote:Mercedes race pace was mediocre in Friday. If it's a clean race then Vettel has this in the big.

I get the feeling Ferrari will get caught out on strategy again with the two Mercedes being able to split theirs.

That's forgetting Kimi is going to force others into pitting, and if he can clear the bulls quickly.

He will need a phenomenal start and then some serious early pace if Ferrari want to get him into a position where he can cause a bit of mischief, and unless he goes ultras second stint with a third on the softs, it's hard to see him having the pace to do any real blocking after the rest of the front runners pit, especially with S3 being one giant drag race. As much as I think Ferrari screwed Kimi last time out in order to try and block Bottas back into Vettel, that seemed like a decision done on the fly. To do the above would require pre planning with the strategy, and I don't think even Ferrari would go that far this early in the year, purely from a motivational perspective.

Flash2k11 wrote:

Rockie wrote:

Black_Flag_11 wrote:

davidheath461 wrote:Mercedes race pace was mediocre in Friday. If it's a clean race then Vettel has this in the big.

I get the feeling Ferrari will get caught out on strategy again with the two Mercedes being able to split theirs.

That's forgetting Kimi is going to force others into pitting, and if he can clear the bulls quickly.

He will need a phenomenal start and then some serious early pace if Ferrari want to get him into a position where he can cause a bit of mischief, and unless he goes ultras second stint with a third on the softs, it's hard to see him having the pace to do any real blocking after the rest of the front runners pit, especially with S3 being one giant drag race. As much as I think Ferrari screwed Kimi last time out in order to try and block Bottas back into Vettel, that seemed like a decision done on the fly. To do the above would require pre planning with the strategy, and I don't think even Ferrari would go that far this early in the year, purely from a motivational perspective.

He's going to be on the faster tyre at the start if he has a good start he should have one bull by turn one and the other once drs comes on we have seen how powerful the tow is here.

Just last race you saw how Max was able to do same.

Rockie wrote:

Flash2k11 wrote:

Rockie wrote:

Black_Flag_11 wrote:

davidheath461 wrote:Mercedes race pace was mediocre in Friday. If it's a clean race then Vettel has this in the big.

I get the feeling Ferrari will get caught out on strategy again with the two Mercedes being able to split theirs.

That's forgetting Kimi is going to force others into pitting, and if he can clear the bulls quickly.

He will need a phenomenal start and then some serious early pace if Ferrari want to get him into a position where he can cause a bit of mischief, and unless he goes ultras second stint with a third on the softs, it's hard to see him having the pace to do any real blocking after the rest of the front runners pit, especially with S3 being one giant drag race. As much as I think Ferrari screwed Kimi last time out in order to try and block Bottas back into Vettel, that seemed like a decision done on the fly. To do the above would require pre planning with the strategy, and I don't think even Ferrari would go that far this early in the year, purely from a motivational perspective.

He's going to be on the faster tyre at the start if he has a good start he should have one bull by turn one and the other once drs comes on we have seen how powerful the tow is here.

Just last race you saw how Max was able to do same.

What's the difference in compounds between the US and SS? In China it was 2 seconds or more between compounds and that's why Verstappen had the pace to overtake. Tow means nothing in the same speed cars, it might and I mean a big might make the difference between a Ferrari and RB depending how much quicker the Ferrari is. These cars are awful for overtaking.

Black_Flag_11 wrote:

davidheath461 wrote:Mercedes race pace was mediocre in Friday. If it's a clean race then Vettel has this in the big.

I get the feeling Ferrari will get caught out on strategy again with the two Mercedes being able to split theirs.

What can Mercedes really do though? It's a one stopper and RB might have the pace to keep up which changes everything. Pit the first Mercedes and Vettel reacts meaning the second Mercedes is just waiting for a VSC or SC,

Hamilton has 8 kph on Vettel in the speed traps.

One SC restart and Vettel is doomed.

Rockie wrote:

Flash2k11 wrote:

Rockie wrote:

Black_Flag_11 wrote:

davidheath461 wrote:Mercedes race pace was mediocre in Friday. If it's a clean race then Vettel has this in the big.

I get the feeling Ferrari will get caught out on strategy again with the two Mercedes being able to split theirs.

That's forgetting Kimi is going to force others into pitting, and if he can clear the bulls quickly.

He will need a phenomenal start and then some serious early pace if Ferrari want to get him into a position where he can cause a bit of mischief, and unless he goes ultras second stint with a third on the softs, it's hard to see him having the pace to do any real blocking after the rest of the front runners pit, especially with S3 being one giant drag race. As much as I think Ferrari screwed Kimi last time out in order to try and block Bottas back into Vettel, that seemed like a decision done on the fly. To do the above would require pre planning with the strategy, and I don't think even Ferrari would go that far this early in the year, purely from a motivational perspective.

He's going to be on the faster tyre at the start if he has a good start he should have one bull by turn one and the other once drs comes on we have seen how powerful the tow is here.

Just last race you saw how Max was able to do same.

hopefully vettel and hamilton will take each other out at the start and then ferrari will be forced into thinking about strategy for kimi. its the only way that will happen. the ultras have lasted well at other tracks so he should get a decent stint. if he can pass a couple of cars and then undercut a couple of cars his ferrari has the potential to win. hes gonna need something though, and i cant remember the last time he got a big lump of it, and thats luck.

F1_Ernie wrote:
What's the difference in compounds between the US and SS? In China it was 2 seconds or more between compounds and that's why Verstappen had the pace to overtake. Tow means nothing in the same speed cars, it might and I mean a big might make the difference between a Ferrari and RB depending how much quicker the Ferrari is. These cars are awful for overtaking.

The tow here on same tyres is worth 3/10th.

Despite starting on the third row, I suspect Verstappen will in a very short time get up there mixed with the Mercs, which could actually help Vettel by eliminating the 'two drivers to cover' problem. Ricciardo tends to play a little safer at the start, and if there is a charge by him it will come later, so i think the early action will be Vestappen vs the mercs and how that plays out will be interesting.

The other wild card is Kimi starting on the Ultrasofts.

Something in the back of my head is telling me that Kimi will get Maxed out of the race or at least out of contention. That will leave the Mercs and Danny to try and out maneuver Seb.

Pirelli's recommended pit strategies:

Quickest theoretical strategy for tomorrow is a one-stop strategy:
Start on supersoft for 20 laps, then soft for 31 laps.

Second-quickest strategy is also a one-stopper:
Start on ultrasoft for 10 laps, then 41 laps on soft to the flag.

Ideal two-stopper:
Start on ultrasoft for 10 laps, then supersoft for 20 laps, then supersoft again for 21 laps to the flag.

There's a chance the Virtual Safety Car could come into play. If a driver can push their tires long enough and have the pace to take the lead during pitstop rotation, they could come out of it with the lead. Just an observation. There's a high chance we might see one with this being Baku.

Hoping for a duel at the front and some interesting strategy decisions. This could get really interesting.

I'm still thinking this may be a Mercedes win. They are already quicker on the straights than the Ferrari and with DRS they have a great chance of pulling off an overtake. The caveat is them staying close in the twisty bits, of course, but I do fancy their chances

Zoue wrote:I'm still thinking this may be a Mercedes win. They are already quicker on the straights than the Ferrari and with DRS they have a great chance of pulling off an overtake. The caveat is them staying close in the twisty bits, of course, but I do fancy their chances

Well, if they get away as is, they are in the driving seat in regards to strategy, can do the undercut and overcut on Vettel. As some have alluded to already though, I think the VSC/SC is going to be the big fly in the ointment on any potential strategy today. We saw last year that with the close walls and limited/dangerous runoff, an SC situation is likely. Red Bull have shown they probably react the best to this kind of issue the best so far this year, could be a good day for them.

Wouldn't mind seeing another crazy SC restart again this year, cars going 3/4 abreast in that huge straight down into turn 1 is manic.

Zoue wrote:I'm still thinking this may be a Mercedes win. They are already quicker on the straights than the Ferrari and with DRS they have a great chance of pulling off an overtake. The caveat is them staying close in the twisty bits, of course, but I do fancy their chances

i think ferrari have the fastest car here personally. i think merc still have more of a q3 boost then ferrari but if kimi had nailed his lap they would have been about 4 tenths down which is a big chunk. if they get away in order i think that vettel will pull a gap in the first two sectors, stay out of drs early and will have the pace to pull away.

Things are going to get messy today.

Speeds around the Baku circuit:


Source - http://www.f1i.com/wp-content/uploads/2 ... d-Trap.jpg

Wow Ferrari really haven't set their car up for straight line speed have they? Vettel could be a sitting duck if he can't break clear of DRS early on. I'm assuming Ricciardo got a tow.

UnlikeUday wrote:Pirelli's recommended pit strategies:

Quickest theoretical strategy for tomorrow is a one-stop strategy:
Start on supersoft for 20 laps, then soft for 31 laps.

Second-quickest strategy is also a one-stopper:
Start on ultrasoft for 10 laps, then 41 laps on soft to the flag.

Ideal two-stopper:
Start on ultrasoft for 10 laps, then supersoft for 20 laps, then supersoft again for 21 laps to the flag.

Interesting Data.
Surprised they feel the supersoft can do 20 laps at the start...but they never suggest it can do more later in the race.

The real interest here is how these are impacted by a tyre change in the event of a safety car, in the first 10, the first 20, or then first 30.

The two stop strategy of two stints on super soft and one stint on ultras could be an option for those starting on super softs as well.

The challenge could be to find the strategy with maximum chance of benefiting from a safety car for one team member - to cover off the safety car angle.

Zoue wrote:I'm still thinking this may be a Mercedes win. They are already quicker on the straights than the Ferrari and with DRS they have a great chance of pulling off an overtake. The caveat is them staying close in the twisty bits, of course, but I do fancy their chances

Forgetting they are slower through the twisty bits which lead onto the straights for drs, so might not be in drs range in the race.
A lot will depend on how fast Kimi clears the Redbulls.

UnlikeUday wrote:Pirelli's recommended pit strategies:

Quickest theoretical strategy for tomorrow is a one-stop strategy:
Start on supersoft for 20 laps, then soft for 31 laps.

Second-quickest strategy is also a one-stopper:
Start on ultrasoft for 10 laps, then 41 laps on soft to the flag.

Ideal two-stopper:
Start on ultrasoft for 10 laps, then supersoft for 20 laps, then supersoft again for 21 laps to the flag.

Would a two stop tyre strategy that involves finishing on the ultrasoft be any good?

UnlikeUday wrote:Speeds around the Baku circuit:


Source - http://www.f1i.com/wp-content/uploads/2 ... d-Trap.jpg

Grosjean the most consistent out there ..

davidheath461 wrote:Mercedes race pace was mediocre in Friday. If it's a clean race then Vettel has this in the big.

Not always wise to read in to Merc's Friday pace. I think they run slightly more fuel than Ferrari and Red Bull, and it used to be pretty close even pre-2017 on Fridays, and then Merc would have that clear advantage again in the race.

If Vettel wins today, it will be with a Merc up behind him.

If the wind is as strong as indicated above then you have to expect it to play havoc with the aero and as a result braking. I expect to see a few down the escape road or into the wall.

Who will be king of the restart I wonder!

Rockie wrote:

Zoue wrote:I'm still thinking this may be a Mercedes win. They are already quicker on the straights than the Ferrari and with DRS they have a great chance of pulling off an overtake. The caveat is them staying close in the twisty bits, of course, but I do fancy their chances

Forgetting they are slower through the twisty bits which lead onto the straights for drs, so might not be in drs range in the race.
A lot will depend on how fast Kimi clears the Redbulls.

Not sure how I'm forgetting it when I said "the caveat is them staying close in the twisty bits?"

nabby81 wrote:

UnlikeUday wrote:Speeds around the Baku circuit:


Source - http://www.f1i.com/wp-content/uploads/2 ... d-Trap.jpg

Grosjean the most consistent out there ..

Wow, the Ferraris are really slow on the straights.

The revised grid for the race:

1 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari
2 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
3 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes
4 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull
5 Max Verstappen Red Bull
6 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari
7 Esteban Ocon Force India
8 Sergio Perez Force India
9 Carlos Sainz Renault
10 Lance Stroll Williams
11 Sergey Sirotkin Williams
12 Fernando Alonso McLaren
13 Charles Leclerc Sauber
14 Nico Hulkenberg Renault *
15 Kevin Magnussen Haas
16 Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren
17 Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso
18 Marcus Ericsson Sauber
19 Brendon Hartley Toro Rosso **
20 Romain Grosjean Haas **

* five-place gearbox penalty
** failed to get within the 107% qualifying rule and will race at the stewards’ discretion

Who takes the first corner in a normal race I expect to win, Ferrari or Mercedes. This won't be a normal race, won't be surprised a SC influences the result.

Kimi trying to end his race before it starts it seems

Let the mayhem commence!

Wow, not even race yet, few cars already off track.
Going to be lots n lots of safety car on track today, me think.

The strong winds already becoming a challenge:

Llotyhy wrote:Let the Max mayhem commence!

Fixed that for you!

Those starting on the even numbered grid (Hamilton, Ricciardo, Raikkonen) could be at a disadvantage due to the dirty side & dusty even.

The chosen tyre compounds at the start:


Source - www.imgur.com

Who is going to hit the wall first??