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Lotus49 wrote:Average gap according to RaceFans

Alonso over Kimi...0.528 in 2014
Vettel over Kimi....0.463 in 2015

I believe they just throw everything in there?

pokerman wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:Average gap according to RaceFans

Alonso over Kimi...0.528 in 2014
Vettel over Kimi....0.463 in 2015

I believe they just throw everything in there?

Best times in the last part of each qualifying session that both set a time it said. Not sure what they do weather wise, I'm guessing the keep it but it doesn't say.

Lotus49 wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:Average gap according to RaceFans

Alonso over Kimi...0.528 in 2014
Vettel over Kimi....0.463 in 2015

I believe they just throw everything in there?

Best times in the last part of each qualifying session that both set a time it said. Not sure what they do weather wise, I'm guessing the keep it but it doesn't say.

Who do you think is faster and by how much?

I'd say that generally speaking Alonso has a tenth, and it's equalled up when the car is truly in Vettel's wheelhouse such as how he mastered things for periods during the Red Bull era.

pokerman wrote:

davidheath461 wrote:

Invade wrote:Hamilton vs Alonso vs Vettel: the F1 statistics
https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/opin ... statistics

...Will probably be of interest to some of you.

But but Alonso always has number 1 status written into his contract so it's useless to compare him with his teammates.

I guess you missed the part about Alonso having weaker teammates?

Compared to who?

Invade wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:Average gap according to RaceFans

Alonso over Kimi...0.528 in 2014
Vettel over Kimi....0.463 in 2015

I believe they just throw everything in there?

Best times in the last part of each qualifying session that both set a time it said. Not sure what they do weather wise, I'm guessing the keep it but it doesn't say.

Who do you think is faster and by how much?

I'd say that generally speaking Alonso has a tenth, and it's equalled up when the car is truly in Vettel's wheelhouse such as how he mastered things for periods during the Red Bull era.

Yeah I'd go along with something like that myself, a tenth and a bit at most leaning towards Alonso. I think the gaps between the top 5 guys wouldn't be any more than you see between Dan and Max at most and the type of car and it's behaviour would decide much of it as you point out. I think in general the worse the car is the more I'd lean towards Alonso getting the most out of it and the better it is then Lewis or Seb.

The one thing I'd say for Seb is that I still believe a driver hits his peak in his early 30's and for much of his career he's had to face and be compared to prime Alonso and in the last 2-3 seasons prime Lewis. And he has only just began entering that stage now so considering what he's done thus far I think that's pretty impressive, for me anyway.

I think the next 2 seasons are when Seb will enter that place so I reserve the right to change my mind once we've seen him in action in that phase of his career!

Lotus49 wrote:

Invade wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:Average gap according to RaceFans

Alonso over Kimi...0.528 in 2014
Vettel over Kimi....0.463 in 2015

I believe they just throw everything in there?

Best times in the last part of each qualifying session that both set a time it said. Not sure what they do weather wise, I'm guessing the keep it but it doesn't say.

Who do you think is faster and by how much?

I'd say that generally speaking Alonso has a tenth, and it's equalled up when the car is truly in Vettel's wheelhouse such as how he mastered things for periods during the Red Bull era.

Yeah I'd go along with something like that myself, a tenth and a bit at most leaning towards Alonso. I think the gaps between the top 5 guys wouldn't be any more than you see between Dan and Max at most and the type of car and it's behaviour would decide much of it as you point out. I think in general the worse the car is the more I'd lean towards Alonso getting the most out of it and the better it is then Lewis or Seb.

The one thing I'd say for Seb is that I still believe a driver hits his peak in his early 30's and for much of his career he's had to face and be compared to prime Alonso and in the last 2-3 seasons prime Lewis. And he has only just began entering that stage now so considering what he's done thus far I think that's pretty impressive, for me anyway.

I think the next 2 seasons are when Seb will enter that place so I reserve the right to change my mind once we've seen him in action in that phase of his career!

I tend to agree as a general rule that drivers don't hit their peak until they've had more than just a few years of experience. With so many drivers starting in F1 so young, perhaps that general age of early 30s comes down a bit, but still with all the peak reflexes and natural athletic attributes still there I see no reason why they also won't hit their peak at that time as long as they're still motivated after already having a quite lengthy career. So yeh I agree there and don't really have any concrete opinion between Lewis and Seb, and we're in the middle of their "peaks" warring against each other right now and for the future probably, until 2021 anyway. I've seen such a body of work from Alonso though to say that currently he's been slightly more impressive, but he's had longer to put his performances together and there's plenty of room and time for Lewis and Seb to continue making their stamp on the sport in a big way, and to raise their stock yet further still. I'd suggest the primes of Seb and Lewis have overlapped quite a lot for in terms of actual F1 experience they are similar and both were fortunate enough to be in positions to mature and deal with huge pressure very early on in their careers.

Agree about Alonso probably being more likely to better the worse the car is. It's hard to think of many instances where Alonso overdrove. He's always aware of the realistic and reasonable limits of the machinery he has in his hands. If we look at the times Bottas bested Hamilton in 2017, it can be argued it was due to Hamilton trying to extract performance from the car that wasn't reasonably available given the traits of the tracks in question (typically lower grip). Alonso has no problem (and well he's had years of experience now) in accepting the limits of the car, though still driving near the limits of its capabilities. As always with Alonso, my main gripe is aspects of his career management - but it's not all his fault.

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

KingVoid wrote:0.347s I think

I guess we all have different methodologies I had Alonso's average for Kimi at 0.28s for the season.

Vettel's 2015 average was 0.24s.

which means they are pretty much even, I guess

Yes if you want to highlight individual years, Vettel and Kimi are into their 4th season as teammates.

we've been through this before. Things can change year on year. In their first year as Kimi's team mate Seb and Alonso had virtually identical stats

davidheath461 wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

KingVoid wrote:0.347s I think

I guess we all have different methodologies I had Alonso's average for Kimi at 0.28s for the season.

Vettel's 2015 average was 0.24s.

which means they are pretty much even, I guess

and ricciardo is faster than both?

I thought the comparison was how well they fared against Kimi? I forget which season Kimi partnered with Dan?

davidheath461 wrote:Did Trulli ever face Hamilton in qualifying in the same car?

According to Mark Hughes, Trulli is the best qualifier Alonso has ever faced, and the only driver who has outqualified Alonso over a whole season (fuel corrected). Trulli beat Alonso by 0.047% in 2004 and was only 0.004% slower in 2003. Hamilton was 0.016% slower than Alonso in 2007.

Do you think that Trulli was faster than Alonso and Hamilton?

If not, then is it because there’s something outside that teammate comparison which makes you think that Hamilton and Alonso are probably faster?

KingVoid wrote:

davidheath461 wrote:Did Trulli ever face Hamilton in qualifying in the same car?

According to Mark Hughes, Trulli is the best qualifier Alonso has ever faced, and the only driver who has outqualified Alonso over a whole season (fuel corrected). Trulli beat Alonso by 0.047% in 2004 and was only 0.004% slower in 2003. Hamilton was 0.016% slower than Alonso in 2007.

Do you think that Trulli was faster than Alonso and Hamilton?

If not, then is it because there’s something outside that teammate comparison which makes you think that Hamilton and Alonso are probably faster?

I thought you didn't like Mark Hughes? Is Hamilton really the same driver in 2007 than in his later years? Surely he has improved.

I like how people are twisting themselves into pretzels, now within 15 pages it has now reduced to a tenth if the car is good I have no doubt Vettel will beat Alonso in qualifying.

He moved to a new team and beat with ease Kimi who directed the development of the car, by the same margin Alonso who was settled in the team and so far Vettel is the only driver I see that settling into the team has been totally discounted for him.

So with Vettel he never gets his due, its the car was a rocket ship or his team mate is weak or insert driver name can do better something that is not said for any other driver.

F1_Ernie wrote:I thought you didn't like Mark Hughes? Is Hamilton really the same driver in 2007 than in his later years? Surely he has improved.

Hughes was the one who calculated those figures (average qualifying gaps between teammates). I could do them myself but I decided to take his word for it.

As for Hamilton vs Alonso, when you do a quick cross comparison with how both fared relative to Button, I think that Lewis is about 0.080s quicker than Alonso. That should still put him in roughly the same ballpark as Trulli.

davidheath461 wrote:

KingVoid wrote:

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:

KingVoid wrote:Regarding the cross comparison between Vettel and Alonso using Raikkonen, I always thought that one was a bit skewed just because of how shockingly poor Kimi was in the first half of 2014.

From Australia to Hungary, the average gap between Alonso and Raikkonen was 0.694 seconds. That is basically Jolyon Palmer territory. From Belgium to Abu Dhabi, Raikkonen was 0.300 seconds slower than Alonso which is much more acceptable and in the region where I expect him to be.

There is no doubt that Alonso is a better driver than Raikkonen, but I don’t buy for one second that he is 7 tenths faster than Kimi on average. That kind of gap is ludicrous. I find 3 tenths much more believable, that’s the kind of gap he had over Kimi after the summer break once Kimi got used to the Ferrari’s handling.

Anyway:

Alonso’s mean advantage over Massa was 0.287s
Alonso’s mean advantage over Raikkonen was 0.300s (post summer break)
Vettel’s mean advantage over Raikkonen is 0.283s
Vettel’s mean advantage over Webber was 0.273s

We know that Massa = Kimi (roughly) based on their time together at Ferrari. I reckon that Massa = Webber too. I don’t have evidence to prove it, but these are two drivers that are rated roughly in the same ballpark.

If exclude Alonso's biggest advantages over Räikkönen, you must also exclude Vettel's biggest advantages over Räikkönen, otherwise your calculation is void.

Raikkonen had no input on the development of the F14T. He was much better in the second half of the season once he got the hang of the car.

Vettel never enjoyed this advantage over Raikkonen, because Vettel joined Ferrari after Kimi did.

You can't just pick and choose what data you want to get the results you want.

Your "analysis" is a complete joke.

Rockie wrote:I like how people are twisting themselves into pretzels, now within 15 pages it has now reduced to a tenth if the car is good I have no doubt Vettel will beat Alonso in qualifying.

He moved to a new team and beat with ease Kimi who directed the development of the car, by the same margin Alonso who was settled in the team and so far Vettel is the only driver I see that settling into the team has been totally discounted for him.

So with Vettel he never gets his due, its the car was a rocket ship or his team mate is weak or insert driver name can do better something that is not said for any other driver.

I like how you twist everything in favor of Vettel.

I think if they both were teammates, qualifying would be about even and Alonso would be considerably better than Vettel in the races.

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:

Rockie wrote:I like how people are twisting themselves into pretzels, now within 15 pages it has now reduced to a tenth if the car is good I have no doubt Vettel will beat Alonso in qualifying.

He moved to a new team and beat with ease Kimi who directed the development of the car, by the same margin Alonso who was settled in the team and so far Vettel is the only driver I see that settling into the team has been totally discounted for him.

So with Vettel he never gets his due, its the car was a rocket ship or his team mate is weak or insert driver name can do better something that is not said for any other driver.

I like how you twist everything in favor of Vettel.

I think if they both were teammates, qualifying would be about even and Alonso would be considerably better than Vettel in the races.

And yet if you compare how both stacked relative to Raikkonen, you get the opposite. Alonso would be much quicker in qualifying and Vettel would be at least as good in the race.

But I don’t actually believe that Alonso is quicker in qualifying because I don’t believe that he’s actually 5-6 tenths quicker than Raikkonen on average. Kimi was just rubbish in the first half of 2014.

Well, with selective figures, you can show everything.

We could focus on 2016 only for the Vettel-Räikkönen comparison, for instance.

Regarding my comment about how Vettel is at least as good as Alonso on race day. Let’s look at how many races per year Kimi has outperformed Vettel in their first three seasons together at Ferrari.

Bahrain 2015
Abu Dhabi 2015
Spain 2016
Britain 2016
Britain 2017

That’s about 1-2 races per year on average where Kimi is actually better than Vettel.

Now look at how often Alonso was outperformed by Massa and Kimi from 2010-2014

Turkey 2010
Germany 2010
China 2011
Canada 2011
USA 2012
Brazil 2012
India 2013
Monaco 2014
Belgium 2014

You end up with a pretty similar ratio. About 1.8 races per year.

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:Well, with selective figures, you can show everything.

We could focus on 2016 only for the Vettel-Räikkönen comparison, for instance.

why would you?

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:Well, with selective figures, you can show everything.

We could focus on 2016 only for the Vettel-Räikkönen comparison, for instance.

2016 wasn’t even that bad from Vettel.

He was 0.110s faster than Raikkonen in qualifying, which is only slightly worse than Alonso was relative to Massa in 2013 (0.170s).

On race day, Vettel was outperformed by Raikkonen in Silverstone and maybe Spain (although Kimi had the better strategy in Spain). Alonso was usually outperformed by Massa and Kimi at least 2 times per season.

Zoue wrote:

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:Well, with selective figures, you can show everything.

We could focus on 2016 only for the Vettel-Räikkönen comparison, for instance.

why would you?

In order to twist the analysis to be as void as the selective one by KingVoid.

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:

Zoue wrote:

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:Well, with selective figures, you can show everything.

We could focus on 2016 only for the Vettel-Räikkönen comparison, for instance.

why would you?

In order to twist the analysis to be as void as the selective one by KingVoid.

It’s selective because otherwise the entire cross comparison doesn’t make sense.

Alonso had 0.287s over Massa on average but 0.528s over Raikkonen

This would imply that Massa was as dominant over Kimi as Alonso was over him. We know that isn’t true. Massa and Kimi were evenly matched at Ferrari.

Alonso and Massa spend 4 years together while Alonso and Kimi spend only 1 year together, so it’s likely that Alonso vs Massa was more representative because we have a lot more data.

If you want to believe that Alonso is actually over half a second faster than Kimi on average, then you are free to believe that.

KingVoid wrote:

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:

Zoue wrote:

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:Well, with selective figures, you can show everything.

We could focus on 2016 only for the Vettel-Räikkönen comparison, for instance.

why would you?

In order to twist the analysis to be as void as the selective one by KingVoid.

It’s selective because otherwise the entire cross comparison doesn’t make sense.

Alonso had 0.287s over Massa on average but 0.528s over Raikkonen

This would imply that Massa was as dominant over Kimi as Alonso was over him. We know that isn’t true. Massa and Kimi were evenly matched at Ferrari.

Alonso and Massa spend 4 years together while Alonso and Kimi spend only 1 year together, so it’s likely that Alonso vs Massa was more representative because we have a lot more data.

If you want to believe that Alonso is actually over half a second faster than Kimi on average, then you are free to believe that.

Well, if the figures are like that, they are like that. But what you are doing is that you cut out the observations showing the biggest advantages of FA over KR (as long as and so that the average comes down to a similar value of SV). But you do not cut out the x observations showing the biggest advantages of SV over KR (x being the same number of observations cut out from Alonso's data). Thus, you bias the result (to achieve a special end) and your analysis is flawed and void.
At the end of the day, you twist the figures so that they fit to your opinion.

KingVoid wrote:Regarding my comment about how Vettel is at least as good as Alonso on race day. Let’s look at how many races per year Kimi has outperformed Vettel in their first three seasons together at Ferrari.

Bahrain 2015
Abu Dhabi 2015
Spain 2016
Britain 2016
Britain 2017

That’s about 1-2 races per year on average where Kimi is actually better than Vettel.

Now look at how often Alonso was outperformed by Massa and Kimi from 2010-2014

Turkey 2010
Germany 2010
China 2011
Canada 2011
USA 2012
Brazil 2012
India 2013
Monaco 2014
Belgium 2014

You end up with a pretty similar ratio. About 1.8 races per year.

What about USA 2017 for Kimi? Didn't look slower than Vettel and had the worse strategy with Ferrari covering off a Verstappen undercut with Vettel and both making mincemeat out of Bottas later, with Kimi then being a good boy in letting Vettel through for 2nd without a fuss.

Also, what about Mexico 2017. I'm not so bothered about how fast Vettel was in recovering his race as his damage was self inflicted and, further, he ruined somebody else's race. Ultimately, Kimi went from P5-P3 and Vettel from P1-P4 and as nice and aggressive as the recovery drive was, he shot himself in the foot hardcore.

I could include USA 2017, but then I would also have to include Spain 2014 for Kimi. The situation of these two races were pretty similar.

I could also include Mexico 2017, but then I can also include Australia and Monaco 2010 in Massa’s favour. Alonso’s race weekend problems were also self inflicted.

Overall Vettel has dominated Raikkonen on race day by a similar margin to how Alonso dominated Massa and Raikkonen.

I tend to punish costly errors in my own "analysis". Another example is Vettel's ambitious move off the restart in Baku. He lost himself two positions, and really three - it was his flatspot which made it virtually impossible for him to defend against Perez shortly after. That one error was so costly, that it sees him with a lower race score than Raikkonen on my spreadsheet. Vettel P1-P4 and Raikkonen P6-P2.

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:

Zoue wrote:

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:Well, with selective figures, you can show everything.

We could focus on 2016 only for the Vettel-Räikkönen comparison, for instance.

why would you?

In order to twist the analysis to be as void as the selective one by KingVoid.

you've lost me, I'm afraid

KingVoid wrote:I could include USA 2017, but then I would also have to include Spain 2014 for Kimi. The situation of these two races were pretty similar.

I could also include Mexico 2017, but then I can also include Australia and Monaco 2010 in Massa’s favour. Alonso’s race weekend problems were also self inflicted.

Overall Vettel has dominated Raikkonen on race day by a similar margin to how Alonso dominated Massa and Raikkonen.

Yeh it's just a difference in how we approach it, but I agree with your wider point. My method, your method, it leads to a similar overall result.

If I used your method then this would probably be my result:

Alonso outperformed by Massa

Australia 2010
Monaco 2010
Turkey 2010
Germany 2010
Malaysia 2011
China 2011
Canada 2011
Japan 2012
USA 2012
Brazil 2012
Malaysia 2013
India 2013

Vettel outperformed by Raikkonen

Bahrain 2015
Abu Dhabi 2015
Spain 2016
Britain 2016
Malaysia 2016
Britain 2017
USA 2017
Mexico 2017
Australia 2018
Baku 2018

Thanks for that effort KingVoid.

KingVoid wrote:Now look at how often Alonso was outperformed by Massa and Kimi from 2010-2014

Monaco 2014
Belgium 2014

Belgium I can see (although Alonso's no-fault penalty muddied it a bit, I'd still give it to Raikkonen), but how do you figure Monaco? From my memory, Alonso qualified and finished ahead.

Kimi was on course for third place in that race before Chilton hit him under the safety car and gave him a puncture.

KingVoid wrote:Kimi was on course for third place in that race before Chilton hit him under the safety car and gave him a puncture.

Fair enough; I watched it back, and Kimi jumped Alonso and Ricciardo at the start. Monaco being Monaco, there's a very good chance he'd have finished there.

Lotus49 wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:Average gap according to RaceFans

Alonso over Kimi...0.528 in 2014
Vettel over Kimi....0.463 in 2015

I believe they just throw everything in there?

Best times in the last part of each qualifying session that both set a time it said. Not sure what they do weather wise, I'm guessing the keep it but it doesn't say.

Yes I think it's just pure times regardless of circumstances.

Invade wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:Average gap according to RaceFans

Alonso over Kimi...0.528 in 2014
Vettel over Kimi....0.463 in 2015

I believe they just throw everything in there?

Best times in the last part of each qualifying session that both set a time it said. Not sure what they do weather wise, I'm guessing the keep it but it doesn't say.

Who do you think is faster and by how much?

I'd say that generally speaking Alonso has a tenth, and it's equalled up when the car is truly in Vettel's wheelhouse such as how he mastered things for periods during the Red Bull era.

A tenth at the most maybe a bit less than that?

davidheath461 wrote:

pokerman wrote:

davidheath461 wrote:

Invade wrote:Hamilton vs Alonso vs Vettel: the F1 statistics
https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/opin ... statistics

...Will probably be of interest to some of you.

But but Alonso always has number 1 status written into his contract so it's useless to compare him with his teammates.

I guess you missed the part about Alonso having weaker teammates?

Compared to who?

It said to both Vettel and Hamilton but more so Hamilton.

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

Zoue wrote:

pokerman wrote:

KingVoid wrote:0.347s I think

I guess we all have different methodologies I had Alonso's average for Kimi at 0.28s for the season.

Vettel's 2015 average was 0.24s.

which means they are pretty much even, I guess

Yes if you want to highlight individual years, Vettel and Kimi are into their 4th season as teammates.

we've been through this before. Things can change year on year. In their first year as Kimi's team mate Seb and Alonso had virtually identical stats

No if you just want to use 1 year and ignore the other 3 then that's what you call cherry picking.

KingVoid wrote:

davidheath461 wrote:Did Trulli ever face Hamilton in qualifying in the same car?

According to Mark Hughes, Trulli is the best qualifier Alonso has ever faced, and the only driver who has outqualified Alonso over a whole season (fuel corrected). Trulli beat Alonso by 0.047% in 2004 and was only 0.004% slower in 2003. Hamilton was 0.016% slower than Alonso in 2007.

Do you think that Trulli was faster than Alonso and Hamilton?

If not, then is it because there’s something outside that teammate comparison which makes you think that Hamilton and Alonso are probably faster?

What's strange to me is how the fact that Hamilton was a rookie never factors into it, Alonso was beating Hamilton in qualifying in the first half of the season, Hamilton turned the tables in the second half of the season, also Hamilton was stronger in qualifying against Button than what Alonso was.

F1_Ernie wrote:

KingVoid wrote:

davidheath461 wrote:Did Trulli ever face Hamilton in qualifying in the same car?

According to Mark Hughes, Trulli is the best qualifier Alonso has ever faced, and the only driver who has outqualified Alonso over a whole season (fuel corrected). Trulli beat Alonso by 0.047% in 2004 and was only 0.004% slower in 2003. Hamilton was 0.016% slower than Alonso in 2007.

Do you think that Trulli was faster than Alonso and Hamilton?

If not, then is it because there’s something outside that teammate comparison which makes you think that Hamilton and Alonso are probably faster?

I thought you didn't like Mark Hughes? Is Hamilton really the same driver in 2007 than in his later years? Surely he has improved.

That might depend on what Hughes has to say?

KingVoid wrote:

F1_Ernie wrote:I thought you didn't like Mark Hughes? Is Hamilton really the same driver in 2007 than in his later years? Surely he has improved.

Hughes was the one who calculated those figures (average qualifying gaps between teammates). I could do them myself but I decided to take his word for it.

As for Hamilton vs Alonso, when you do a quick cross comparison with how both fared relative to Button, I think that Lewis is about 0.080s quicker than Alonso. That should still put him in roughly the same ballpark as Trulli.

Hughes' figures were clearly larger that that.

KingVoid wrote:

Paolo_Lasardi wrote:

Rockie wrote:I like how people are twisting themselves into pretzels, now within 15 pages it has now reduced to a tenth if the car is good I have no doubt Vettel will beat Alonso in qualifying.

He moved to a new team and beat with ease Kimi who directed the development of the car, by the same margin Alonso who was settled in the team and so far Vettel is the only driver I see that settling into the team has been totally discounted for him.

So with Vettel he never gets his due, its the car was a rocket ship or his team mate is weak or insert driver name can do better something that is not said for any other driver.

I like how you twist everything in favor of Vettel.

I think if they both were teammates, qualifying would be about even and Alonso would be considerably better than Vettel in the races.

And yet if you compare how both stacked relative to Raikkonen, you get the opposite. Alonso would be much quicker in qualifying and Vettel would be at least as good in the race.

But I don’t actually believe that Alonso is quicker in qualifying because I don’t believe that he’s actually 5-6 tenths quicker than Raikkonen on average. Kimi was just rubbish in the first half of 2014.

He wasn't 5 or 6 tenths quicker that's just your median methodology that says that.