When, and to where, will Ricciardo move? [A: 2019, Renault]

[pokerman]

What does the Ricciardo-Vettel-Raikkonen-Alonso-Button-Perez-Hulk cross comparison data suggest we'll see in the quali battle between Hulk and Dan?

Well, since you asked... if I remember the numbers correctly it would go something like this:

Ricciardo > Vettel ~ 1 tenth

Vettel > Raikkonen ~ 2 tenths
Alonso > Raikkonen ~ 3 tenths
Alonso > Vettel ~ 1 tenth
Ricciardo = Alonso

Alonso > Button ~ 2 tenths
Button = Perez
Perez = Hulk

Ricciardo > Hulk ~ 2 tenths

Thanks.

That (Dan-Hulk) actually sounds about right to me, maybe 1 and a half, although I think Hulk will get the better of him in the wet so the overall score could be close if there's a few of them.

Will be good to finally see Hulk next to someone widely regarded in that upper bracket. This could finally get Hulk and Perez some credit.

...and Ocon.

Yeah true,good point.

It's a bit of a blow for him really, with Stroll snr sniffing about his FI seat,Dan in the Renault seat,Bottas getting an extension and Russell and Norris doing so well in F2. You'd think one of him,Perez or Sainz could be in a spot of bother unbelievably if Alonso decides to stay at Macca and Williams and/or FI don't go the Mercedes partner route.

Silly season got interesting for a change.

Yeah It's being said that it's blown Mercedes' plans for it's junior drivers to the detriment of both Ocon and Russell.

[pokerman]

Yeah that's not too far out, if however it's quite close then that points to 2014 being an outlier.

I don’t really get how an entire year can be an outlier. One race or a short patch of races, but not a whole year. It was pretty comprehensive.

Ricciardo should be a step quicker than Hulkenberg, but the Hulk is no slouch.

It's not always as lineal as that, look at Kimi and Vettel in 2016, career stats are more accurate than 1 year stats.

[pokerman]

Interesting report on the PF1 site:

https://www.planetf1.com/news/horner-th ... ng-report/

According to Horner, Red Bull were under the impression Ricciardo was re-signing. They had agreed to a 1-year deal and probably a financial improvement.

The Renault deal is rumoured to be 20M pounds per year. I doubt Red Bull were offering that.

Horner thought Ricciardo was joking when he got the phone call on Thursday. Seems like everyone got a shock.

Red Bull even had a press release and promo ready to go, they were just waiting for the signature.

I wonder what changed Ricciardo's mind? Renault obviously hung a big carrot in the past week.

Yeah a Red Bull insider is saying that it was all about the money, I want the same money as Verstappen, you can't have it, Renault come along and say we will give you that money, Ricciardo's says that will do me.

[pokerman]

Renault is a works team - Let's see what pulls out in Spain in the first test.
Why does everyone think Renault won't/can't build a good motor or chassie?
Remember What was lewis thinking with going to merc.
Danny might just look like a wizard in a year or 2.
Timing is everything and if Renault can assemble the right minds Dan
absolutely has the race craft to be multi WC.
Put straight wings on and it could be a 6 way fight in a season or 2

When Lewis joined Mercedes they were already a race winning team, also had been working on the hybrid engine before others.

Folks just didn't pay attention, a look back and reports pointed to Mercedes dominating this era once they get there tyre issues sorted.

Mercedes may have won a race early in the season but they were far from a race winning team when he signed, they ended up 5th in the WCC with their best placed driver 9th in the WDC, they had a worse season than 2010 and 2011, Hamilton himself said he had prepared himself for not winning a race in 2013, also talk of how good the Mercedes engine was looking only emerged during 2013, I'm not sure what you are looking back at in 2012?

[pokerman]

Well, since you asked... if I remember the numbers correctly it would go something like this:

Ricciardo > Vettel ~ 1 tenth

Vettel > Raikkonen ~ 2 tenths
Alonso > Raikkonen ~ 3 tenths
Alonso > Vettel ~ 1 tenth
Ricciardo = Alonso

Alonso > Button ~ 2 tenths
Button = Perez
Perez = Hulk

Ricciardo > Hulk ~ 2 tenths

This would make a lot of sense if we didn't have the Hulk >Sainz and Sainz=Verstappen history.

I just have a strong feeling that Hulk is going to be a lot closer to Ricc than many think. He might even be faster, especially in the first few races.
I'm talking qualifying though. In the races I do believe Ricc is better.

You can't judge drivers when they are rookies, does anyone seriously think that Verstappen in particularly has not improved from his rookie season?

[pokerman]

I'm impressed that you guys think Ricciardo isn't only interested in the money.... but I'm not so sure it's so easy to dismiss. The guy is in his 8th season in F1 and while he wants to win for sure, and he would jump at the chance of a WDC winning car, at the moment there's no reason to believe one is available. He probably doesn't believe the Honda hype, and sees a chance of a works drive against a team mate he believes he can beat (and thus keep his own reputation alive). Since he has almost no chance of being WDC the next two years maybe it's a smart move to earn $40m instead of $12m... it's not like he's signed for Williams after all.

When was Ricci last beaten by a teammate? We are talking over a season, on the only metric that matters; WDC points.

Judging on your metric 2015.

Yeah points don't always tell the true tale.

[Jezza13]

Interesting report on the PF1 site:

https://www.planetf1.com/news/horner-th ... ng-report/

According to Horner, Red Bull were under the impression Ricciardo was re-signing. They had agreed to a 1-year deal and probably a financial improvement.

The Renault deal is rumoured to be 20M pounds per year. I doubt Red Bull were offering that.

Horner thought Ricciardo was joking when he got the phone call on Thursday. Seems like everyone got a shock.

Red Bull even had a press release and promo ready to go, they were just waiting for the signature.

I wonder what changed Ricciardo's mind? Renault obviously hung a big carrot in the past week.

Yeah a Red Bull insider is saying that it was all about the money, I want the same money as Verstappen, you can't have it, Renault come along and say we will give you that money, Ricciardo's says that will do me.

Yeah and I read somewhere else that it was because he was scared to race Verstappen.

I'm not expecting too many positive comments to come from RB about this.

[AravJ]

From the outside Dan moving to Renault is a mistake. Hope they showed him something that gave promise that Renault could be in the top three next year.

[pokerman]

Interesting report on the PF1 site:

https://www.planetf1.com/news/horner-th ... ng-report/

According to Horner, Red Bull were under the impression Ricciardo was re-signing. They had agreed to a 1-year deal and probably a financial improvement.

The Renault deal is rumoured to be 20M pounds per year. I doubt Red Bull were offering that.

Horner thought Ricciardo was joking when he got the phone call on Thursday. Seems like everyone got a shock.

Red Bull even had a press release and promo ready to go, they were just waiting for the signature.

I wonder what changed Ricciardo's mind? Renault obviously hung a big carrot in the past week.

Yeah a Red Bull insider is saying that it was all about the money, I want the same money as Verstappen, you can't have it, Renault come along and say we will give you that money, Ricciardo's says that will do me.

Yeah and I read somewhere else that it was because he was scared to race Verstappen.

I'm not expecting too many positive comments to come from RB about this.

Well this is from a minion rather than management, the minions are gutted that Ricciardo is leaving.

[pokerman]

I wouldn't be so sure that Ricciardo will win that battle. Hulkenberg is very underrated in my opinion.

Win or lose, the comparative people are about to get some juicy data!

What does the Ricciardo-Vettel-Raikkonen-Alonso-Button-Perez-Hulk cross comparison data suggest we'll see in the quali battle between Hulk and Dan?

Well, since you asked... if I remember the numbers correctly it would go something like this:

Ricciardo > Vettel ~ 1 tenth

Vettel > Raikkonen ~ 2 tenths
Alonso > Raikkonen ~ 3 tenths
Alonso > Vettel ~ 1 tenth
Ricciardo = Alonso

Alonso > Button ~ 2 tenths
Button = Perez
Perez = Hulk

Ricciardo > Hulk ~ 2 tenths

Yeah that's not too far out, if however it's quite close then that points to 2014 being an outlier.

Right I've done a lot of cross referencing, for Ricciardo to fully validate his 2014 season against Vettel he needs to beat the Hulk by 0.24s.

[Rockie]

Right I've done a lot of cross referencing, for Ricciardo to fully validate his 2014 season against Vettel he needs to beat the Hulk by 0.24s.

Yeah I'm sure that's what he's worried about and not actually winning the championship or race wins, the same mentality that got Alonso to where he is today, where beating team mate is actually more important than the bigger picture.

[Rockie]

Renault is a works team - Let's see what pulls out in Spain in the first test.
Why does everyone think Renault won't/can't build a good motor or chassie?
Remember What was lewis thinking with going to merc.
Danny might just look like a wizard in a year or 2.
Timing is everything and if Renault can assemble the right minds Dan
absolutely has the race craft to be multi WC.
Put straight wings on and it could be a 6 way fight in a season or 2

When Lewis joined Mercedes they were already a race winning team, also had been working on the hybrid engine before others.

Folks just didn't pay attention, a look back and reports pointed to Mercedes dominating this era once they get there tyre issues sorted.

Mercedes may have won a race early in the season but they were far from a race winning team when he signed, they ended up 5th in the WCC with their best placed driver 9th in the WDC, they had a worse season than 2010 and 2011, Hamilton himself said he had prepared himself for not winning a race in 2013, also talk of how good the Mercedes engine was looking only emerged during 2013, I'm not sure what you are looking back at in 2012?

They won three races in '13 would have won Monaco in '12 had Schumacher not had the grid penalty, also Rosberg won in China and were on for a 1-2 before Schumachers loose wheel nut error by the team, it was the tyre problem that held them back for a while.

[Geckko65]

I'm impressed that you guys think Ricciardo isn't only interested in the money.... but I'm not so sure it's so easy to dismiss. The guy is in his 8th season in F1 and while he wants to win for sure, and he would jump at the chance of a WDC winning car, at the moment there's no reason to believe one is available. He probably doesn't believe the Honda hype, and sees a chance of a works drive against a team mate he believes he can beat (and thus keep his own reputation alive). Since he has almost no chance of being WDC the next two years maybe it's a smart move to earn $40m instead of $12m... it's not like he's signed for Williams after all.

When was Ricci last beaten by a teammate? We are talking over a season, on the only metric that matters; WDC points.

Judging on your metric 2015.

Quite.

And not by VER.

Now answer the same for VER. It this year to date, or last year, or the one before that.

I don’t think Ricci is running from anything

[mikeyg123]

I'm impressed that you guys think Ricciardo isn't only interested in the money.... but I'm not so sure it's so easy to dismiss. The guy is in his 8th season in F1 and while he wants to win for sure, and he would jump at the chance of a WDC winning car, at the moment there's no reason to believe one is available. He probably doesn't believe the Honda hype, and sees a chance of a works drive against a team mate he believes he can beat (and thus keep his own reputation alive). Since he has almost no chance of being WDC the next two years maybe it's a smart move to earn $40m instead of $12m... it's not like he's signed for Williams after all.

When was Ricci last beaten by a teammate? We are talking over a season, on the only metric that matters; WDC points.

Judging on your metric 2015.

Quite.

And not by VER.

Now answer the same for VER. It this year to date, or last year, or the one before that.

I don’t think Ricci is running from anything

I think Ricciardo's points defeat to Kvyat proves that points don't always tell the full story?

[Invade]

If Renault look like they're headed for suckville, Ricc has a 2-year audition for a Merc or Ferrari seat. I still believe Renault will come good in the end, but 2021 would be the most likely time for them to strike. They could be 3rd best in 2020 but the next 3 Championships (2018, 2019 and 2020) are going to Mercedes or Ferrari.

[kleefton]

Well, since you asked... if I remember the numbers correctly it would go something like this:

Ricciardo > Vettel ~ 1 tenth

Vettel > Raikkonen ~ 2 tenths
Alonso > Raikkonen ~ 3 tenths
Alonso > Vettel ~ 1 tenth
Ricciardo = Alonso

Alonso > Button ~ 2 tenths
Button = Perez
Perez = Hulk

Ricciardo > Hulk ~ 2 tenths

This would make a lot of sense if we didn't have the Hulk >Sainz and Sainz=Verstappen history.

I just have a strong feeling that Hulk is going to be a lot closer to Ricc than many think. He might even be faster, especially in the first few races.
I'm talking qualifying though. In the races I do believe Ricc is better.

You can't judge drivers when they are rookies, does anyone seriously think that Verstappen in particularly has not improved from his rookie season?

I don’t see why the hell not. Especially when said drivers were both rookies. Surely Sainz has improved too no?

[pokerman]

Right I've done a lot of cross referencing, for Ricciardo to fully validate his 2014 season against Vettel he needs to beat the Hulk by 0.24s.

Yeah I'm sure that's what he's worried about and not actually winning the championship or race wins, the same mentality that got Alonso to where he is today, where beating team mate is actually more important than the bigger picture.

Well I'm not sure that Ricciardo himself will be reading this?

A Vettel fan not liking the comparisons?

[pokerman]

Renault is a works team - Let's see what pulls out in Spain in the first test.
Why does everyone think Renault won't/can't build a good motor or chassie?
Remember What was lewis thinking with going to merc.
Danny might just look like a wizard in a year or 2.
Timing is everything and if Renault can assemble the right minds Dan
absolutely has the race craft to be multi WC.
Put straight wings on and it could be a 6 way fight in a season or 2

When Lewis joined Mercedes they were already a race winning team, also had been working on the hybrid engine before others.

Folks just didn't pay attention, a look back and reports pointed to Mercedes dominating this era once they get there tyre issues sorted.

Mercedes may have won a race early in the season but they were far from a race winning team when he signed, they ended up 5th in the WCC with their best placed driver 9th in the WDC, they had a worse season than 2010 and 2011, Hamilton himself said he had prepared himself for not winning a race in 2013, also talk of how good the Mercedes engine was looking only emerged during 2013, I'm not sure what you are looking back at in 2012?

They won three races in '13 would have won Monaco in '12 had Schumacher not had the grid penalty, also Rosberg won in China and were on for a 1-2 before Schumachers loose wheel nut error by the team, it was the tyre problem that held them back for a while.

We're talking about 2012 not 2013, the car was quick in the first part of the season by the time that Hamilton signed after Singapore not so quick, in Singapore the Mercedes was over a second slower than the McLaren.

[pokerman]

Well, since you asked... if I remember the numbers correctly it would go something like this:

Ricciardo > Vettel ~ 1 tenth

Vettel > Raikkonen ~ 2 tenths
Alonso > Raikkonen ~ 3 tenths
Alonso > Vettel ~ 1 tenth
Ricciardo = Alonso

Alonso > Button ~ 2 tenths
Button = Perez
Perez = Hulk

Ricciardo > Hulk ~ 2 tenths

This would make a lot of sense if we didn't have the Hulk >Sainz and Sainz=Verstappen history.

I just have a strong feeling that Hulk is going to be a lot closer to Ricc than many think. He might even be faster, especially in the first few races.
I'm talking qualifying though. In the races I do believe Ricc is better.

You can't judge drivers when they are rookies, does anyone seriously think that Verstappen in particularly has not improved from his rookie season?

I don’t see why the hell not. Especially when said drivers were both rookies. Surely Sainz has improved too no?

2015 was only Verstappen's second season in car racing, his improvement is quite obvious I would say, Sainz will have improved as well but at that point had far more experience in car racing than Verstappen, I doubt the Hulk would be beating Verstappen in the Renault.

[Kev627]

"I felt it was a time where it was good to move on," says Ricciardo.

http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/24239/ ... or-renault

[Covalent]

"I felt it was a time where it was good to move on," says Ricciardo.

http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/24239/ ... or-renault

Yeah it´s good to move on when you´re probably about to be beaten while being paid less.

[ALESI]

I'm impressed that you guys think Ricciardo isn't only interested in the money.... but I'm not so sure it's so easy to dismiss. The guy is in his 8th season in F1 and while he wants to win for sure, and he would jump at the chance of a WDC winning car, at the moment there's no reason to believe one is available. He probably doesn't believe the Honda hype, and sees a chance of a works drive against a team mate he believes he can beat (and thus keep his own reputation alive). Since he has almost no chance of being WDC the next two years maybe it's a smart move to earn $40m instead of $12m... it's not like he's signed for Williams after all.

Exactly outside of Ferrari or Mercedes till the rules change no one else is winning the title, why not make as much money as possible and when them seats open up try for them.

Then why didn't he sign for Macca when they came knocking with a big cheque in their hands?

Also, when the next round of musical chairs opens up, he'll probably be competing with Verstappen, Ocon, Leclerc plus other young drivers for top seats and maybe even still Hamilton & Vettel too after spending 2 yrs as #2 at RB.

In my view if he'd waited he'd have missed his opportunity

Probably because McLaren would be a major backwards step and they are a customer team at the end of the day.

[ALESI]

Interesting report on the PF1 site:

https://www.planetf1.com/news/horner-th ... ng-report/

According to Horner, Red Bull were under the impression Ricciardo was re-signing. They had agreed to a 1-year deal and probably a financial improvement.

The Renault deal is rumoured to be 20M pounds per year. I doubt Red Bull were offering that.

Horner thought Ricciardo was joking when he got the phone call on Thursday. Seems like everyone got a shock.

Red Bull even had a press release and promo ready to go, they were just waiting for the signature.

I wonder what changed Ricciardo's mind? Renault obviously hung a big carrot in the past week.

Yeah a Red Bull insider is saying that it was all about the money, I want the same money as Verstappen, you can't have it, Renault come along and say we will give you that money, Ricciardo's says that will do me.

Given that he has more experience than Max, I don't think it's unreasonable that he wanted the same money. If Red Bull didn't want to pay him they can't really carp that he left. If Max had made him look rubbish it would be a different matter, but he hasn't.

What is staggering though is that a week ago we were saying Dan is screwed he'll just have to take what Red Bull offer him and like it, and then he pulls $20m a year and a works drive out of his pocket. I bet Horner was surprised, shocked in fact, as I bet he thought he had Dan in a corner..

But why did Renault offer Dan so much money? Surely they could have got him for less? They said they weren't interested in getting Alonso back until they could give him a decent car - so why are they paying top dollar for a driver now?

[F1 MERCENARY]

"I felt it was a time where it was good to move on," says Ricciardo.

http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/24239/ ... or-renault

Yeah it´s good to move on when you´re probably about to be beaten while being paid less.

That’s a far fetched statement if ever we’ve seen one on here.
Ricciardo has had a good string of terrible luck this season and Max has had the preferred strategy more often unless he encounters issues, and then the team does an excellent job of supporting him.

Under those circumstances, how could ANY driver not jump at an offer like Renault’s?

He’d be stupid not to take it.

[Lotus49]

Interesting report on the PF1 site:

https://www.planetf1.com/news/horner-th ... ng-report/

According to Horner, Red Bull were under the impression Ricciardo was re-signing. They had agreed to a 1-year deal and probably a financial improvement.

The Renault deal is rumoured to be 20M pounds per year. I doubt Red Bull were offering that.

Horner thought Ricciardo was joking when he got the phone call on Thursday. Seems like everyone got a shock.

Red Bull even had a press release and promo ready to go, they were just waiting for the signature.

I wonder what changed Ricciardo's mind? Renault obviously hung a big carrot in the past week.

Yeah a Red Bull insider is saying that it was all about the money, I want the same money as Verstappen, you can't have it, Renault come along and say we will give you that money, Ricciardo's says that will do me.

Given that he has more experience than Max, I don't think it's unreasonable that he wanted the same money. If Red Bull didn't want to pay him they can't really carp that he left. If Max had made him look rubbish it would be a different matter, but he hasn't.

What is staggering though is that a week ago we were saying Dan is screwed he'll just have to take what Red Bull offer him and like it, and then he pulls $20m a year and a works drive out of his pocket. I bet Horner was surprised, shocked in fact, as I bet he thought he had Dan in a corner..

But why did Renault offer Dan so much money? Surely they could have got him for less? They said they weren't interested in getting Alonso back until they could give him a decent car - so why are they paying top dollar for a driver now?

It annoys Red Bull. Puts them in a spot driver wise for STR and Sainz if they promote Gasly when they're already running a bit thin on drivers for STR with enough SLP. Red Bull have loved being able to market their strongest line up on the grid with two marketable guys and now they can't and it hurts them competitiveness wise as well just as they're about to swap engines that might help bring them back to Renault works team a little when combined with the new aero rules.

Also screws up Mercedes plan for Ocon and puts them in a bit of a spot young driver-wise.

They need a top driver so weakening one of your competitors is always a plus and weakening one that just dumped you and is throwing barbs your way every weekend is an even bigger plus. They'll also be more confident of finishing 4th this year in the WCC looking at the situation at the summer break and I believe the big bosses back at Renault had set that target for Enstone to meet to secure the extra funding for a push to try to win.

[Jezza13]

But why did Renault offer Dan so much money? Surely they could have got him for less? They said they weren't interested in getting Alonso back until they could give him a decent car - so why are they paying top dollar for a driver now?

Yeah this is something that crossed my mind last night.

What are Renault going to get out of this?

Their wage bill for Hulk & Sainz combined is $5.75m a year, based on info from gpfans.com. $750K for Sainz & $5m for Hulk. For that investment they've got 2 solid, mid ranked drivers who'll probably take them to 4th in the CC in 2018.

In one swoop they've increased that to $25m a year. A 212% increase.

For that investment they'll have 2 drivers, 1 top ranked & 1 mid ranked, who'll probably take them to 4th in the CC in 2019 & 2020.

Sure he'll bring inside info on RB's designs but will that info see an increase in performance enough to justify the wage bill increase and the benefits of that info probably won't be seen until mid 2019 at the earliest or even the start of 2020 anyway?

If I were the one signing the cheques at Renault, I'd be asking why would we not invest the additional $40m over 2 yrs on coaxing technical personnel from one of the top 3 or buying more R&D equipment. In 2 yrs, if we're then closer to the top 3 than we are now, then we'll go out and get a top line driver as the market in 2020 will be very open with most top drivers & young guns up for grabs. Why do we need a top line driver at this point of our comeback and is this investment at this time the best way to get the most bang for our buck?

For my part, I say it's not unless, and maybe this is wishful thinking here, but could Renault have something up their sleeve for 2019 / 2020 and need a top line driver now to hopefully maximise the benefits this quantum leap?

[infi24r]

But why did Renault offer Dan so much money? Surely they could have got him for less? They said they weren't interested in getting Alonso back until they could give him a decent car - so why are they paying top dollar for a driver now?

Yeah this is something that crossed my mind last night.

What are Renault going to get out of this?

Their wage bill for Hulk & Sainz combined is $5.75m a year, based on info from gpfans.com. $750K for Sainz & $5m for Hulk. For that investment they've got 2 solid, mid ranked drivers who'll probably take them to 4th in the CC in 2018.

In one swoop they've increased that to $25m a year. A 212% increase.

For that investment they'll have 2 drivers, 1 top ranked & 1 mid ranked, who'll probably take them to 4th in the CC in 2019 & 2020.

Sure he'll bring inside info on RB's designs but will that info see an increase in performance enough to justify the wage bill increase and the benefits of that info probably won't be seen until mid 2019 at the earliest or even the start of 2020 anyway?

If I were the one signing the cheques at Renault, I'd be asking why would we not invest the additional $40m over 2 yrs on coaxing technical personnel from one of the top 3 or buying more R&D equipment. In 2 yrs, if we're then closer to the top 3 than we are now, then we'll go out and get a top line driver as the market in 2020 will be very open with most top drivers & young guns up for grabs. Why do we need a top line driver at this point of our comeback and is this investment at this time the best way to get the most bang for our buck?

For my part, I say it's not unless, and maybe this is wishful thinking here, but could Renault have something up their sleeve for 2019 / 2020 and need a top line driver now to hopefully maximise the benefits this quantum leap?

This logic gives me faith in their performance level. Mid field teams prioritise budget over driver lineup. There are too many good highly rated but not established drivers that can be had dirt cheap to waste paying 20-30x that amount on a top level driver.

The only time that money becomes worth it is if you have aspirations of a top team.

[iano]

But why did Renault offer Dan so much money? Surely they could have got him for less? They said they weren't interested in getting Alonso back until they could give him a decent car - so why are they paying top dollar for a driver now?

Yeah this is something that crossed my mind last night.

What are Renault going to get out of this?

Their wage bill for Hulk & Sainz combined is $5.75m a year, based on info from gpfans.com. $750K for Sainz & $5m for Hulk. For that investment they've got 2 solid, mid ranked drivers who'll probably take them to 4th in the CC in 2018.

In one swoop they've increased that to $25m a year. A 212% increase.

.....

So their budget is increase by almost $20m.

Either a, they were ready to increase their budget by $20m and they blew the lot on Ricciardo
or
They have a significant budget increase for 2019 and the $20 is just part of a bigger picture.

Currently Renault are 4th constructor. Even further behind 3rd (141 points) than 3rd is behind second (112 points). They have to believe they can jump one place in 2019. Whether that is because they feel Red Bull will fall back with Honda power, Renault can move forward, or a combination they are clearly targeting on getting to 3rd and as long as Ricciardo is not the only enhancement they make.

It is possible 2019 will have two teams battle for the title, and two teams battling for third. Better if four (or more) all battling for 1st, but sadly that could take another year.

[infi24r]

But why did Renault offer Dan so much money? Surely they could have got him for less? They said they weren't interested in getting Alonso back until they could give him a decent car - so why are they paying top dollar for a driver now?

Yeah this is something that crossed my mind last night.

What are Renault going to get out of this?

Their wage bill for Hulk & Sainz combined is $5.75m a year, based on info from gpfans.com. $750K for Sainz & $5m for Hulk. For that investment they've got 2 solid, mid ranked drivers who'll probably take them to 4th in the CC in 2018.

In one swoop they've increased that to $25m a year. A 212% increase.

.....

So their budget is increase by almost $20m.

Either a, they were ready to increase their budget by $20m and they blew the lot on Ricciardo
or
They have a significant budget increase for 2019 and the $20 is just part of a bigger picture.

Currently Renault are 4th constructor. Even further behind 3rd (141 points) than 3rd is behind second (112 points). They have to believe they can jump one place in 2019. Whether that is because they feel Red Bull will fall back with Honda power, Renault can move forward, or a combination they are clearly targeting on getting to 3rd and as long as Ricciardo is not the only enhancement they make.

It is possible 2019 will have two teams battle for the title, and two teams battling for third. Better if four (or more) all battling for 1st, but sadly that could take another year.

1 place doesn't sound like a lot. But there is a huge performance difference at the moment. Sometimes a second per lap.

[Glasnost]

But why did Renault offer Dan so much money? Surely they could have got him for less? They said they weren't interested in getting Alonso back until they could give him a decent car - so why are they paying top dollar for a driver now?

Yeah this is something that crossed my mind last night.

What are Renault going to get out of this?

Their wage bill for Hulk & Sainz combined is $5.75m a year, based on info from gpfans.com. $750K for Sainz & $5m for Hulk. For that investment they've got 2 solid, mid ranked drivers who'll probably take them to 4th in the CC in 2018.

In one swoop they've increased that to $25m a year. A 212% increase.

For that investment they'll have 2 drivers, 1 top ranked & 1 mid ranked, who'll probably take them to 4th in the CC in 2019 & 2020.

Sure he'll bring inside info on RB's designs but will that info see an increase in performance enough to justify the wage bill increase and the benefits of that info probably won't be seen until mid 2019 at the earliest or even the start of 2020 anyway?

If I were the one signing the cheques at Renault, I'd be asking why would we not invest the additional $40m over 2 yrs on coaxing technical personnel from one of the top 3 or buying more R&D equipment. In 2 yrs, if we're then closer to the top 3 than we are now, then we'll go out and get a top line driver as the market in 2020 will be very open with most top drivers & young guns up for grabs. Why do we need a top line driver at this point of our comeback and is this investment at this time the best way to get the most bang for our buck?

For my part, I say it's not unless, and maybe this is wishful thinking here, but could Renault have something up their sleeve for 2019 / 2020 and need a top line driver now to hopefully maximise the benefits this quantum leap?

Maybe they just wanted a dirver that could drag the car to more regular/higher points finishes to try and create a gap and really secure the mid-field rather then spend a whole season scrapping with FI & Hass.
perhaps they figure Dan will be able to keep them in front as best of the rest enough to divert some in-season budget from car upgrades to more longer term projects?
I doubt that spending $20 million a year and being able to skip the odd wing or bardge board development would be worth it/ work. just theory crafting.

[Jezza13]

But why did Renault offer Dan so much money? Surely they could have got him for less? They said they weren't interested in getting Alonso back until they could give him a decent car - so why are they paying top dollar for a driver now?

Yeah this is something that crossed my mind last night.

What are Renault going to get out of this?

Their wage bill for Hulk & Sainz combined is $5.75m a year, based on info from gpfans.com. $750K for Sainz & $5m for Hulk. For that investment they've got 2 solid, mid ranked drivers who'll probably take them to 4th in the CC in 2018.

In one swoop they've increased that to $25m a year. A 212% increase.

For that investment they'll have 2 drivers, 1 top ranked & 1 mid ranked, who'll probably take them to 4th in the CC in 2019 & 2020.

Sure he'll bring inside info on RB's designs but will that info see an increase in performance enough to justify the wage bill increase and the benefits of that info probably won't be seen until mid 2019 at the earliest or even the start of 2020 anyway?

If I were the one signing the cheques at Renault, I'd be asking why would we not invest the additional $40m over 2 yrs on coaxing technical personnel from one of the top 3 or buying more R&D equipment. In 2 yrs, if we're then closer to the top 3 than we are now, then we'll go out and get a top line driver as the market in 2020 will be very open with most top drivers & young guns up for grabs. Why do we need a top line driver at this point of our comeback and is this investment at this time the best way to get the most bang for our buck?

For my part, I say it's not unless, and maybe this is wishful thinking here, but could Renault have something up their sleeve for 2019 / 2020 and need a top line driver now to hopefully maximise the benefits this quantum leap?

Maybe they just wanted a dirver that could drag the car to more regular/higher points finishes to try and create a gap and really secure the mid-field rather then spend a whole season scrapping with FI & Hass.
perhaps they figure Dan will be able to keep them in front as best of the rest enough to divert some in-season budget from car upgrades to more longer term projects?
I doubt that spending $20 million a year and being able to skip the odd wing or bardge board development would be worth it/ work. just theory crafting.

In that case it doesn't say much for Sainz , Hulk & their development team that they think they have to go out & smash their current wage budget by a couple of hundred percent on a top tier driver just so they can solidify their position as best of the rest for a couple of years.

[kleefton]

Well, since you asked... if I remember the numbers correctly it would go something like this:

Ricciardo > Vettel ~ 1 tenth

Vettel > Raikkonen ~ 2 tenths
Alonso > Raikkonen ~ 3 tenths
Alonso > Vettel ~ 1 tenth
Ricciardo = Alonso

Alonso > Button ~ 2 tenths
Button = Perez
Perez = Hulk

Ricciardo > Hulk ~ 2 tenths

This would make a lot of sense if we didn't have the Hulk >Sainz and Sainz=Verstappen history.

I just have a strong feeling that Hulk is going to be a lot closer to Ricc than many think. He might even be faster, especially in the first few races.
I'm talking qualifying though. In the races I do believe Ricc is better.

You can't judge drivers when they are rookies, does anyone seriously think that Verstappen in particularly has not improved from his rookie season?

I don’t see why the hell not. Especially when said drivers were both rookies. Surely Sainz has improved too no?

2015 was only Verstappen's second season in car racing, his improvement is quite obvious I would say, Sainz will have improved as well but at that point had far more experience in car racing than Verstappen, I doubt the Hulk would be beating Verstappen in the Renault.

I don't think Hulk would be beating Verstappen in a Renault either, but I think what you are missing here is that they were all racing different generations of cars. These high df cars might not fit the likes of Ricciardo very well, as ever since they have been introduced, Verstappen has gotten the upper hand on Ricc, whereas before that it was Ricc owning Max. So imo all this cross referencing stuff doesn't always work. Hulk will be tough to handle for Ricciardo on Saturdays, and the delta will not be 2 tenths in Ricciardo's favor. You can book it.

[Zoue]

Interesting report on the PF1 site:

https://www.planetf1.com/news/horner-th ... ng-report/

According to Horner, Red Bull were under the impression Ricciardo was re-signing. They had agreed to a 1-year deal and probably a financial improvement.

The Renault deal is rumoured to be 20M pounds per year. I doubt Red Bull were offering that.

Horner thought Ricciardo was joking when he got the phone call on Thursday. Seems like everyone got a shock.

Red Bull even had a press release and promo ready to go, they were just waiting for the signature.

I wonder what changed Ricciardo's mind? Renault obviously hung a big carrot in the past week.

Yeah a Red Bull insider is saying that it was all about the money, I want the same money as Verstappen, you can't have it, Renault come along and say we will give you that money, Ricciardo's says that will do me.

Given that he has more experience than Max, I don't think it's unreasonable that he wanted the same money. If Red Bull didn't want to pay him they can't really carp that he left. If Max had made him look rubbish it would be a different matter, but he hasn't.

What is staggering though is that a week ago we were saying Dan is screwed he'll just have to take what Red Bull offer him and like it, and then he pulls $20m a year and a works drive out of his pocket. I bet Horner was surprised, shocked in fact, as I bet he thought he had Dan in a corner..

But why did Renault offer Dan so much money? Surely they could have got him for less? They said they weren't interested in getting Alonso back until they could give him a decent car - so why are they paying top dollar for a driver now?

It just shows how people shouldn't pay too much attention to anything drivers or teams say about contracts. There's a lot of smoke and mirrors out there and I imagine we rarely get to see the unvarnished truth

[backdoc]

But why did Renault offer Dan so much money? Surely they could have got him for less? They said they weren't interested in getting Alonso back until they could give him a decent car - so why are they paying top dollar for a driver now?

In one swoop they've increased that to $25m a year. A 212% increase.

I hate to be picky and I don’t post often, but $5.75mil to $25mil is a 435% increase.

Just saying.

PS - I’m a Dan fan (read Aussie) and I think this is a smart strategic move. As others have said, if he performs it could put him in the box seat for his choice of a few top seats. If he doesn’t, game over, but at least he’s in control of his own success (as much as you can be in F1).

[Zoue]

I think this is The beginning of Ricciardo’s slide into obscurity. Renault will be mid field at best and he won’t have the opportunity to shine that he does now. It looks to me like he’s running from Max, as I can’t see anything that would suggest Renault are a better bet than Red Bull

You could be right about the slide to obscurity for Ricciardo. It is even possible it is the start of a slide into obscurity for Red Bull too... but I do think there is a good chance Honda can get it together and avoid that.

Red Bull no longer wanted Ricciardo for anything other than being a wing man for Max, so yes he probably ran from that.

Once the new deal with Max was signed his fate was sealed, as they were never going to match that for Ricciardo, ensuring he would become a clear #2 if he signed a new contract. He could survive as 'equal' only until the new contract was in place confirming him as second driver.

On that basis, Red Bull simply found themselves not wanting Ricciardo anymore. Do you stay where you are not wanted?

There is a slim chance he can shine in the future at Renault. But that slim chance is greater than the chance he could shine at Red Bull, when the team only want to him to shine when Max fails, and when Max does finish in the points, they do not want Ricciardo taking points from Max by finishing ahead.

Regardless of who is the better right now between Max and Ricciardo, Max has the greater potential. On the basis of that potential they committed last year to a contract with Max that ensured Ricciardo would be sidelined. Look at what happened at Azerbaijan.

There’s a lot of supposition here. I don’t think there is any evidence that Dan has been sidelined for anyone. He has equal opportunity at RB and every chance to shine IF he’s good enough. And I don’t see any evidence that RB don’t want him anymore. Quite the contrary, really

It depends on the interpretation of the words "don't want him anymore". I did not mean it to imply that they were declaring "Get out and never come back, we don't want you even if you would drive for free!"

However I do feel it is quite clear they do not want him as much as the want Verstappen. My supposition is that Ricciardo was not offered a contract with the same pay as Verstappen that clearly states the drivers will be treated equally.

I have not heard a single person saying that he was offered that, and many saying he was not offered that.

If you don't offer the same pay, to me that equates to you do not want them as much. Therefore Ricciardo is not as wanted as Verstappen. I am not suggesting it is wrong of Red Bull to feel that way. I think I was team boss I would think the same way, ignoring the debates about who is better and just assuming it is very close, when a 20yr old is already as good (or even almost as good) as a 29 yr old.......
If Red Bull prefer Verstappen, but still really really wanted Ricciardo, given they already have Verstappen under contract, they would have matched the figure for Ricciardo. They had to know if they did not match it there was a chance he would leave. Reality is, they could afford that risk.

Now Verstappen is out his slump, and probably has learnt from it and will be more consistent as a result.... how much to Red Bull still want Ricciardo? Not enough for Ricciardo, I suggest.

I don't think it's that simple. Teams tend to offer what they think they need to. Max was offered what he was because they wanted to ensure that no-one else snapped him up. Even Ricciardo said at one point this year that he had no other options and would likely stay with Red Bull, so they presumably felt they didn't need to dig that deep to secure him. From what I've read this has come as a complete surprise to them so maybe it's just simply a case of Red Bull being a little too complacent and thinking it was sewn up, rather than a sign that they didn't want him that much

[dompclarke]

But why did Renault offer Dan so much money? Surely they could have got him for less? They said they weren't interested in getting Alonso back until they could give him a decent car - so why are they paying top dollar for a driver now?

Yeah this is something that crossed my mind last night.

What are Renault going to get out of this?

Their wage bill for Hulk & Sainz combined is $5.75m a year, based on info from gpfans.com. $750K for Sainz & $5m for Hulk. For that investment they've got 2 solid, mid ranked drivers who'll probably take them to 4th in the CC in 2018.

In one swoop they've increased that to $25m a year. A 212% increase.

.....

So their budget is increase by almost $20m.

Either a, they were ready to increase their budget by $20m and they blew the lot on Ricciardo
or
They have a significant budget increase for 2019 and the $20 is just part of a bigger picture.

Currently Renault are 4th constructor. Even further behind 3rd (141 points) than 3rd is behind second (112 points). They have to believe they can jump one place in 2019. Whether that is because they feel Red Bull will fall back with Honda power, Renault can move forward, or a combination they are clearly targeting on getting to 3rd and as long as Ricciardo is not the only enhancement they make.

It is possible 2019 will have two teams battle for the title, and two teams battling for third. Better if four (or more) all battling for 1st, but sadly that could take another year.

Or Renault agreed to up the driver budget to get him for the publicity and if they didn't get him the money wasn't available?

[Zoue]

But why did Renault offer Dan so much money? Surely they could have got him for less? They said they weren't interested in getting Alonso back until they could give him a decent car - so why are they paying top dollar for a driver now?

Yeah this is something that crossed my mind last night.

What are Renault going to get out of this?

Their wage bill for Hulk & Sainz combined is $5.75m a year, based on info from gpfans.com. $750K for Sainz & $5m for Hulk. For that investment they've got 2 solid, mid ranked drivers who'll probably take them to 4th in the CC in 2018.

In one swoop they've increased that to $25m a year. A 212% increase.

.....

So their budget is increase by almost $20m.

Either a, they were ready to increase their budget by $20m and they blew the lot on Ricciardo
or
They have a significant budget increase for 2019 and the $20 is just part of a bigger picture.

Currently Renault are 4th constructor. Even further behind 3rd (141 points) than 3rd is behind second (112 points). They have to believe they can jump one place in 2019. Whether that is because they feel Red Bull will fall back with Honda power, Renault can move forward, or a combination they are clearly targeting on getting to 3rd and as long as Ricciardo is not the only enhancement they make.

It is possible 2019 will have two teams battle for the title, and two teams battling for third. Better if four (or more) all battling for 1st, but sadly that could take another year.

Or Renault agreed to up the driver budget to get him for the publicity and if they didn't get him the money wasn't available?

I think this is the most likely.

[750k2]

Or?? Renault are in it to win the whole thing and have opened their wallet accordingly.
Speed is $$$$ - how fast do you wanna go?
I hope the best for them and it would be nice to see a true 3 way fight.

[ALESI]

Is it not crazy though that we now have two drivers on the grid earning $20m a year who aren't WDCs? Compared with Bottas and Kimi these guys are really overperforming in the earnings stakes!

[dompclarke]

Or?? Renault are in it to win the whole thing and have opened their wallet accordingly.
Speed is $$$$ - how fast do you wanna go?
I hope the best for them and it would be nice to see a true 3 way fight.

Renault have always had a tighter budget, always said they won't spend as big as Merc/Ferrari and I don't think that has changed