Re: 2018 Winter Testing Thread
Posted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:00 pm
Delta laptime between different tyre compounds explained by Pirelli:
Source - http://www.Twitter.com
Source - http://www.Twitter.com
So Bottas' 18.9 on Mediums is roughly equal to 16.4-16.3 on Hypersoft.UnlikeUday wrote:Delta laptime between different tyre compounds explained by Pirelli:
Source - http://www.Twitter.com
Clarky wrote:@karunchandhok
In the change of direction between T11 and T12, the Mercedes is far superior to anyone else. The front end responds so well and allows Bottas to open up the entry of the Long T12 corner.
I do not think Ferrari went to qualifying mode like may be Alonso did ? Surely Mercedes can't have such a big advantage. But whatever it is they did not want to show itBlack_Flag_11 wrote:So Bottas' 18.9 on Mediums is roughly equal to 16.4-16.3 on Hypersoft.UnlikeUday wrote:Delta laptime between different tyre compounds explained by Pirelli:
Source - http://www.Twitter.com
God I hope Ferrari were holding a lot on those HS runs or its going to be a long season
That said I think they were, the gap to Haas on the same day just wouldn't make sense otherwise.
Going by the race stints it's Mercedes dominance with Ferrari/Red Bull further away than 2016 so unless Ferrari are sandbagging to world record levels it's number 5 in the bag for Mercedes and Bottas vs Lewis for the title.sandman1347 wrote:So what do we think guys? Mercedes dominance? Merc/Ferrari close battle? Red Bull right there? Thoughts?
Jeez, it's not looking good for the rest of the field. Merc again seems to be in a class of their own. It looked like they found something at the end of last season with that convincing victory in AD, and then found some more in the off season. Get ready for Hamilton vs Bottas folks.Black_Flag_11 wrote:So using the above picture from Twitter of the supposed tyre deltas between compounds from Pirelli I've knocked up a quick spreadsheet and tyre corrected all of the times to be the equivalent of a Hypersoft lap.
Results as below but worth noting that the tyre deltas in that picture are scribbled on some paper and so are not exactly concrete and I'm sure Ted gave different ones in a notebook episode a few days ago, there's also no guarantee that the tyre deltas are the same on any given day, in fact you would expect this to vary with conditions but there's not much we can do about that (however most of the times were set on day 7-8 so this variance should be negligible). Also the Haas time looks a little too good so I'm sceptical of the figures. In addition to that there's obviously another factor of how long the run was that the times were set which is really the key thing.
That said, while imperfect hopefully it gives a little more perspective on the laps. If anyone finds anything more official on the tyre deltas let me know as it wont take long to alter the formula and re post them.
Top 10 times of testing - Tyre corrected
Top times by driver - Tyre corrected
Top times by team - Tyre corrected
Edit: sorry I should have converted them back to 1:17.000 type format before posting. If it's not clear the times are in seconds so the Mercedes 76.225 is a 1:16.225.
Mercedes being miles ahead is probably worse for Lewis than Merc being about 0.25 per lap ahead. If they are A LOT quicker than anyone else and Lewis has 2 more retirements than Bottas it will take 7 perfect races just to catch that up.Lotus49 wrote:Going by the race stints it's Mercedes dominance with Ferrari/Red Bull further away than 2016 so unless Ferrari are sandbagging to world record levels it's number 5 in the bag for Mercedes and Bottas vs Lewis for the title.sandman1347 wrote:So what do we think guys? Mercedes dominance? Merc/Ferrari close battle? Red Bull right there? Thoughts?
So Lewis getting his 5th title too basically
Renault vs McLaren for 4th. Haas will beat one or both in Australia though but fall away post Spain. Force India will recover and either join the fight for 4th or fight for 5th with Williams and Haas.
STR and Sauber bring up the rear with asterisk next to STR as Honda's money and full chassis dyno could help James Key immensely and if Honda's first upgrade works well they could then jump into anywhere behind the top 3 and it wouldn't surprise me.
Good analysis Black Flag, cheers!kleefton wrote:Jeez, it's not looking good for the rest of the field. Merc again seems to be in a class of their own. It looked like they found something at the end of last season with that convincing victory in AD, and then found some more in the off season. Get ready for Hamilton vs Bottas folks.Black_Flag_11 wrote:So using the above picture from Twitter of the supposed tyre deltas between compounds from Pirelli I've knocked up a quick spreadsheet and tyre corrected all of the times to be the equivalent of a Hypersoft lap.
Results as below but worth noting that the tyre deltas in that picture are scribbled on some paper and so are not exactly concrete and I'm sure Ted gave different ones in a notebook episode a few days ago, there's also no guarantee that the tyre deltas are the same on any given day, in fact you would expect this to vary with conditions but there's not much we can do about that (however most of the times were set on day 7-8 so this variance should be negligible). Also the Haas time looks a little too good so I'm sceptical of the figures. In addition to that there's obviously another factor of how long the run was that the times were set which is really the key thing.
That said, while imperfect hopefully it gives a little more perspective on the laps. If anyone finds anything more official on the tyre deltas let me know as it wont take long to alter the formula and re post them.
Top 10 times of testing - Tyre corrected
Top times by driver - Tyre corrected
Top times by team - Tyre corrected
Edit: sorry I should have converted them back to 1:17.000 type format before posting. If it's not clear the times are in seconds so the Mercedes 76.225 is a 1:16.225.
Yeah I know what you mean and it's happened before but Bottas is just nowhere near him in race pace or qualy unlike Nico so he can save a lot of his components by nursing them once ahead.mikeyg123 wrote:Mercedes being miles ahead is probably worse for Lewis than Merc being about 0.25 per lap ahead. If they are A LOT quicker than anyone else and Lewis has 2 more retirements than Bottas it will take 7 perfect races just to catch that up.Lotus49 wrote:Going by the race stints it's Mercedes dominance with Ferrari/Red Bull further away than 2016 so unless Ferrari are sandbagging to world record levels it's number 5 in the bag for Mercedes and Bottas vs Lewis for the title.sandman1347 wrote:So what do we think guys? Mercedes dominance? Merc/Ferrari close battle? Red Bull right there? Thoughts?
So Lewis getting his 5th title too basically
Renault vs McLaren for 4th. Haas will beat one or both in Australia though but fall away post Spain. Force India will recover and either join the fight for 4th or fight for 5th with Williams and Haas.
STR and Sauber bring up the rear with asterisk next to STR as Honda's money and full chassis dyno could help James Key immensely and if Honda's first upgrade works well they could then jump into anywhere behind the top 3 and it wouldn't surprise me.
If things play out like this then F1 will be in trouble. BIG trouble. Nothing hurts the sport more than this type of scenario; which renders whole seasons uninteresting. 2021 would be way too far off in terms of a time to shake things up if Mercedes widen the gap this year. I think last season was really interesting until the wheels came off Ferrari's challenge and to regress to what we had before (but without Rosberg to challenge Lewis) would be a massive blow to the show.Lotus49 wrote:Going by the race stints it's Mercedes dominance with Ferrari/Red Bull further away than 2016 so unless Ferrari are sandbagging to world record levels it's number 5 in the bag for Mercedes and Bottas vs Lewis for the title.sandman1347 wrote:So what do we think guys? Mercedes dominance? Merc/Ferrari close battle? Red Bull right there? Thoughts?
So Lewis getting his 5th title too basically
Renault vs McLaren for 4th. Haas will beat one or both in Australia though but fall away post Spain. Force India will recover and either join the fight for 4th or fight for 5th with Williams and Haas.
STR and Sauber bring up the rear with asterisk next to STR as Honda's money and full chassis dyno could help James Key immensely and if Honda's first upgrade works well they could then jump into anywhere behind the top 3 and it wouldn't surprise me.
I believe he had over half a second on him on average in quali after the tyre issues were sorted in Monaco up until he sewed up the title in Mexico so I don't think it's that unbelievable. (That might've been with Monza included though, I saw it elsewhere over the winter but it wasn't mine so not sure)Herb wrote:Good analysis Black Flag, cheers!kleefton wrote:Jeez, it's not looking good for the rest of the field. Merc again seems to be in a class of their own. It looked like they found something at the end of last season with that convincing victory in AD, and then found some more in the off season. Get ready for Hamilton vs Bottas folks.Black_Flag_11 wrote:So using the above picture from Twitter of the supposed tyre deltas between compounds from Pirelli I've knocked up a quick spreadsheet and tyre corrected all of the times to be the equivalent of a Hypersoft lap.
Results as below but worth noting that the tyre deltas in that picture are scribbled on some paper and so are not exactly concrete and I'm sure Ted gave different ones in a notebook episode a few days ago, there's also no guarantee that the tyre deltas are the same on any given day, in fact you would expect this to vary with conditions but there's not much we can do about that (however most of the times were set on day 7-8 so this variance should be negligible). Also the Haas time looks a little too good so I'm sceptical of the figures. In addition to that there's obviously another factor of how long the run was that the times were set which is really the key thing.
That said, while imperfect hopefully it gives a little more perspective on the laps. If anyone finds anything more official on the tyre deltas let me know as it wont take long to alter the formula and re post them.
Top 10 times of testing - Tyre corrected
Top times by driver - Tyre corrected
Top times by team - Tyre corrected
Edit: sorry I should have converted them back to 1:17.000 type format before posting. If it's not clear the times are in seconds so the Mercedes 76.225 is a 1:16.225.
But I think even looking just at the Merc drivers, which show half a second gap between them shows that we should be taking the times with a pinch of salt.
Except it's Bottas half a second ahead...Lotus49 wrote:I believe he had over half a second on him on average in quali after the tyre issues were sorted in Monaco up until he sewed up the title in Mexico so I don't think it's that unbelievable. (That might've been with Monza included though, I saw it elsewhere over the winter but it wasn't mine so not sure)Herb wrote:Good analysis Black Flag, cheers!kleefton wrote:Jeez, it's not looking good for the rest of the field. Merc again seems to be in a class of their own. It looked like they found something at the end of last season with that convincing victory in AD, and then found some more in the off season. Get ready for Hamilton vs Bottas folks.Black_Flag_11 wrote:So using the above picture from Twitter of the supposed tyre deltas between compounds from Pirelli I've knocked up a quick spreadsheet and tyre corrected all of the times to be the equivalent of a Hypersoft lap.
Results as below but worth noting that the tyre deltas in that picture are scribbled on some paper and so are not exactly concrete and I'm sure Ted gave different ones in a notebook episode a few days ago, there's also no guarantee that the tyre deltas are the same on any given day, in fact you would expect this to vary with conditions but there's not much we can do about that (however most of the times were set on day 7-8 so this variance should be negligible). Also the Haas time looks a little too good so I'm sceptical of the figures. In addition to that there's obviously another factor of how long the run was that the times were set which is really the key thing.
That said, while imperfect hopefully it gives a little more perspective on the laps. If anyone finds anything more official on the tyre deltas let me know as it wont take long to alter the formula and re post them.
Top 10 times of testing - Tyre corrected
Top times by driver - Tyre corrected
Top times by team - Tyre corrected
Edit: sorry I should have converted them back to 1:17.000 type format before posting. If it's not clear the times are in seconds so the Mercedes 76.225 is a 1:16.225.
But I think even looking just at the Merc drivers, which show half a second gap between them shows that we should be taking the times with a pinch of salt.
Agree yeah. Ferrari changed concept with the WB so it could just be early niggles with their aero concept but AMuS think it's fuel consumption that Mercedes are on another planet with and Ferrari are struggling with so who knows. If Renault ever get their 5kg less MGU-K out of the factory then that would help Red Bull no-end but if it's not on the car in Melbourne then it's a long wait until they can.sandman1347 wrote:If things play out like this then F1 will be in trouble. BIG trouble. Nothing hurts the sport more than this type of scenario; which renders whole seasons uninteresting. 2021 would be way too far off in terms of a time to shake things up if Mercedes widen the gap this year. I think last season was really interesting until the wheels came off Ferrari's challenge and to regress to what we had before (but without Rosberg to challenge Lewis) would be a massive blow to the show.Lotus49 wrote:Going by the race stints it's Mercedes dominance with Ferrari/Red Bull further away than 2016 so unless Ferrari are sandbagging to world record levels it's number 5 in the bag for Mercedes and Bottas vs Lewis for the title.sandman1347 wrote:So what do we think guys? Mercedes dominance? Merc/Ferrari close battle? Red Bull right there? Thoughts?
So Lewis getting his 5th title too basically
Renault vs McLaren for 4th. Haas will beat one or both in Australia though but fall away post Spain. Force India will recover and either join the fight for 4th or fight for 5th with Williams and Haas.
STR and Sauber bring up the rear with asterisk next to STR as Honda's money and full chassis dyno could help James Key immensely and if Honda's first upgrade works well they could then jump into anywhere behind the top 3 and it wouldn't surprise me.
Herb wrote:Except it's Bottas half a second ahead...Lotus49 wrote:I believe he had over half a second on him on average in quali after the tyre issues were sorted in Monaco up until he sewed up the title in Mexico so I don't think it's that unbelievable. (That might've been with Monza included though, I saw it elsewhere over the winter but it wasn't mine so not sure)Herb wrote:Good analysis Black Flag, cheers!kleefton wrote:Jeez, it's not looking good for the rest of the field. Merc again seems to be in a class of their own. It looked like they found something at the end of last season with that convincing victory in AD, and then found some more in the off season. Get ready for Hamilton vs Bottas folks.Black_Flag_11 wrote:So using the above picture from Twitter of the supposed tyre deltas between compounds from Pirelli I've knocked up a quick spreadsheet and tyre corrected all of the times to be the equivalent of a Hypersoft lap.
Results as below but worth noting that the tyre deltas in that picture are scribbled on some paper and so are not exactly concrete and I'm sure Ted gave different ones in a notebook episode a few days ago, there's also no guarantee that the tyre deltas are the same on any given day, in fact you would expect this to vary with conditions but there's not much we can do about that (however most of the times were set on day 7-8 so this variance should be negligible). Also the Haas time looks a little too good so I'm sceptical of the figures. In addition to that there's obviously another factor of how long the run was that the times were set which is really the key thing.
That said, while imperfect hopefully it gives a little more perspective on the laps. If anyone finds anything more official on the tyre deltas let me know as it wont take long to alter the formula and re post them.
Top 10 times of testing - Tyre corrected
Top times by driver - Tyre corrected
Top times by team - Tyre corrected
Edit: sorry I should have converted them back to 1:17.000 type format before posting. If it's not clear the times are in seconds so the Mercedes 76.225 is a 1:16.225.
But I think even looking just at the Merc drivers, which show half a second gap between them shows that we should be taking the times with a pinch of salt.
Thanks for doing that analysis - I was actually planning on doing something similar, so you've saved me a bunch of time!
Indeed haas is baby Ferrari, which also makes you wonder how is it that they fell off so bad last year in the development and couldn't get a handle on their brake issue which seemed to go on forever. As the Ferrari engine upgrades kept coming in the chassis couldn't keep up.Lotus49 wrote:The Haas is basically a baby Ferrari which is a well developed chassis and just some tweaks to the Ferrari at the end of last year. Same story as last year, they'll start strong because of it but as development continues elsewhere they'll fall back as they don't seem to develop very well which is understandable I guess at this stage of their existence.
Last year they were 4th quickest at Melbourne, 4ths in front of Williams and a mile ahead of everyone else as it's like putting the previous years Ferrari on the grid again. But it soon becomes a year old if you see what I mean.
They actually highlight how much development goes on in a year.
I agree the cars are definitely capable of more. In typical Ferrari fashion they wanted to be first in testing but to quote Christian Horner "You don't win trophies in winter testing." Ferrari could find themselves in better one lap pace but that wont win them races if the Mercedes race pace is as superior as we are lead to believe at the moment. The merc's focused on race pace and getting a handle on the operating window for the tires. They also stayed away from the much softer tire compounds. Which is the area that caught them out last year and it seems they have got it dialed in.Exediron wrote:Thanks for doing that analysis - I was actually planning on doing something similar, so you've saved me a bunch of time!
Interesting, and it confirms my suspicion that the cars are capable of low 16s or even high 15s. But I can't believe it's the true pecking order, and the reason is called Haas F1.
Best comparison ive seen so farZazu wrote:Clarky wrote:@karunchandhok
In the change of direction between T11 and T12, the Mercedes is far superior to anyone else. The front end responds so well and allows Bottas to open up the entry of the Long T12 corner.
The Mercedes looks like its on rails everywhere. I'd love to see on onboarda and how much steering correction they have to do compared to others
Great video. From the looks of it, the Ferrari is more twitchy and suffers minor traction events more frequently. My estimation is that (at least in current spec) the Mercedes produces more downforce and has superior grip overall.Mayhem wrote:Best comparison ive seen so farZazu wrote:Clarky wrote:@karunchandhok
In the change of direction between T11 and T12, the Mercedes is far superior to anyone else. The front end responds so well and allows Bottas to open up the entry of the Long T12 corner.
The Mercedes looks like its on rails everywhere. I'd love to see on onboarda and how much steering correction they have to do compared to others
Source: https://youtu.be/rNFb8v5P3Co
if this is a sign of whats to come ferrari need some more down force.....sandman1347 wrote:Great video. From the looks of it, the Ferrari is more twitchy and suffers minor traction events more frequently. My estimation is that (at least in current spec) the Mercedes produces more downforce and has superior grip overall.Mayhem wrote:Best comparison ive seen so farZazu wrote:Clarky wrote:@karunchandhok
In the change of direction between T11 and T12, the Mercedes is far superior to anyone else. The front end responds so well and allows Bottas to open up the entry of the Long T12 corner.
The Mercedes looks like its on rails everywhere. I'd love to see on onboarda and how much steering correction they have to do compared to others
Source: https://youtu.be/rNFb8v5P3Co
Imo the merc looks much smoother in the corners and uses less of the track to attack the racing line. It also sounds like its on the power much sooner then the ferrari on most of the corners.
Interesting info regarding the tyres . I do think letting go James Allison was a mistake by Ferrari. It will be ironic that his input will lead to another title for Mercedes. RBR is ahead of Ferrarifunkymonkey wrote:There are big issues with the current data we have from race simulations which was used to calculate and speculate all those corrected times.
Mercedes did entire run on mediums and last stint was on tyres which were 4 laps younger than redbull and 8 laps younger than Ferrari. It is this stint where they put in those 1:19s and everyone is using that data to predict absolute dominance of Mercedes in long runs.
I am not so sure. Redbull and Ferrari both look strong if you take into account fuel loads and older tyres with Ferrari having slight edge on Redbull. May not be absolutely on par with Mercedes, but too close for comfort and something that can can be found in 2 weeks.
We will know real picture only at Australia or rather at Bahrain. But Australia will still give us the general idea. I dont think any of the top 3 teams went all out. I think we will see times at least 7-8 tenth quicker than this when we go racing if not more. We will be in low 1:16s or even on the verge of breaking 1:15 barrier here when we come back for the GP. I can bet 10 bucks on this.
The adjusted pace chart has it ahead of the Ferrari. That's not going to happen.Lotus49 wrote:The Haas is basically a baby Ferrari which is a well developed chassis and just some tweaks to the Ferrari at the end of last year. Same story as last year, they'll start strong because of it but as development continues elsewhere they'll fall back as they don't seem to develop very well which is understandable I guess at this stage of their existence.
I think you'd lose that bet, since the times will run up against the same wall we hit last year: the tyre allocation for Spain. The Soft is likely to be the softest tyre on offer as it was last year, and that's not going to yield a 1:15 even if the cars do a little bit of development between now and the European season.funkymonkey wrote:I think we will see times at least 7-8 tenth quicker than this when we go racing if not more. We will be in low 1:16s or even on the verge of breaking 1:15 barrier here when we come back for the GP. I can bet 10 bucks on this.
It's just Raikkonen fans getting their excuses in early for when we enter the European season with Raikkonen miles off Vettel's points haul.Herb wrote:I agree with MDS - Kimi was ill, why risk him not being able to complete a full day's testing tomorrow by rushing him out?Caserole of Nonsense wrote:are you a vettel fan? yes because you have said it before. did i call you a fanboy?mds wrote:Please lay off the personal remarks. Not constructive in any way, shape or form. My questions were meant to provide you with a number of reasons of why Vettel is in the car for the whole day today and not Kimi. Some might be seen as unfair to the guy, others offer a logical explanation. But you choose to ignore that, just call me a fanboy, and assume there's no valid and fair reason to not put Kimi.Caserole of Nonsense wrote: yes it would make a lot of sense to a vettel fan like you.
Very classy
Last year Vettel did a lot more than Kimi, correct. The two prior years it was pretty balanced. But that we will probably also ignore, won't we?but a kimi fan wouldnt be happy would they. last year vettel did 591 laps to kimis 365 and i remember all the problems were when kimi was driving. this year its even worse as kimi missed a whole day last week due to weather. you might as well send him home and let vettel do it all if you only care about him.
And they don't exactly schedule when to have problems, now do they? And again - suppose Kimi is simply still feeling ill then it's not exactly going to help putting him in the car today.
You don't even know the reason, you don't know Kimi's thoughts on it, but there you are, shouting in anger at how pathetic Ferrari are.
History has shown us that Hamilton can be liability just as well during a season, and that Vettel can be fast and scoring on a very high level just as well.wonder what merc are doing. oh yeah they give both drivers a fair crack. surely ferrari realised last year that vettel can be a liability and unless its an absolute rocket ship this year he aint gonna beat hamilton. but they could get constructors if they bothered about both drivers.
Care to look at the lap count in testing last year? Did Mercedes give them a "fair crack" as well last year? 468 vs 628 laps, quite a difference as well.
Let's just see.i bet kimi comes back tomorrow and does about 60 laps all day
get off your high horse fella.
Hamilton had less than half the laps Bottas did last week (similar to Kimi v Vettel), Mercedes haven't gone out of their way to redress the balance this week.
Seems to happen to all Ferrari engines and is most likely due to the rule changes around oil burning. There's also a little smoke when they're out on track and apparently their fuel consumption is pretty bad so it looks like they've screwed up the engine.Clarky wrote:What was all this smoking from the Ferrari's when starting?