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http://f1.channel4.com/news/max-the-tou ... ricciardo/
Well, at least we know Max is better than Seb

mds wrote:

Zoue wrote:If Kimi gets extended again I'll be absolutely amazed. I strongly suspect his latest contract was to give Ferrari the opportunity to sign e.g. one of the Red Bull drivers for 2019 (and this is likely the case with Bottas, too). If it's true that Red Bull may be forced to give up Renault power and take on Honda, and assuming Honda doesn't make great strides next year, I see both leaving, most likely one for Merc and one for Ferrari

This could happen, but one big caveat: although I pretty much hinted at this in my previous reply, I am still in doubt about whether both Ferrari and Mercedes will want to pair Vettel and Hamilton to a driver that could genuinely rival them. We know Ferrari's stance about this. Given what happened at Mercedes between Hamilton and Rosberg, and their subsequent hiring of Bottas (solid pair of hands, but not expected to trouble Hamilton), it's possible they will be going the same route.

If only one of them opens up a seat for either of the RBR drivers, then it will be interesting to see who they pick and who will pretty much be forced to stay at RBR. Then again there could be other really good seats by then. Renault? McLaren? RBR itself?

On the face of recent evidence, it looks that way, but if both Mercedes and Ferrari have been holding off until some of the star drivers come free then maybe a killer pairing may well be on the cards?

The thing that supports your point is that neither team went out of their way exactly to take Alonso, but that could also be because he may have burned bridges at both teams, OR he is known to want a team focused solely on him and they know that ruptions are inevitable. But Max and Dan are living together in harmony (although there's not exactly any title pressure to be fair), while Dan and Seb managed to last a year together without any hissy fits (ditto), so the teams may decide it's worth it to have two hot properties. WCCs aren't guaranteed anymore, so they also need to look at drivers who will maximise their chances in that area. And don't forget Wolff said at the beginning of this year that he didn't want to be put in the succession planning headache he had when Nico left.

Bottom line is I have no idea but I'm kinda hoping that one or both of those teams get brave! But, like you said, it's also possible that any one or all of the McLaren/Renault/Red Bull triumvirate may come good, in which case drivers will be spoiled for choice

I think RedBull mismanaged Max badly. They should have promoted him at the end of 2016. He wouldn't have ditched them if they kept him at bay til the end of the season. Now they played to his ego and he's almost certain to leave at the end of his current contract. I think either Merc or Ferrari will be ready to offer him a good long contract despite what Vettel or Hamilton have to say about it. Its a sensible investment into the future at a right time when either team's top driver is aging.

What I want is to see Marko's face when Max ditches the team.

typaH4okc wrote:I think either Merc or Ferrari will be ready to offer him a good long contract despite what Vettel or Hamilton have to say about it. Its a sensible investment into the future at a right time when either team's top driver is aging.

Vettel is 30; he will still be at peak form at the end of his new contract, and quite possibly/likely for another one after that. Lewis is only 2 years older, and will also still be at peak ability after another hypothetical 3-year contract.

Max isn't going to leave F1 during the next 3 years just because he can't get a winning car. I would personally bet a sizable amount of money that Max will never be teammates with either Lewis or Seb. Those seats are as closed to him as they were to Alonso.

I think Ricciardo will join Ferrari in 2019 and Verstappen join Mercedes in 2020. I just can't see Ferrari putting Max in with Seb when they obviously don't like/race against each other very well. Leclerc should then replace the loser of Vettel/Ricciardo in 2021. I can see Lewis and Max getting on better and that should be a partnership that lasts.

mas wrote:I think Ricciardo will join Ferrari in 2019 and Verstappen join Mercedes in 2020. I just can't see Ferrari putting Max in with Seb when they obviously don't like/race against each other very well. Leclerc should then replace the loser of Vettel/Ricciardo in 2021. I can see Lewis and Max getting on better and that should be a partnership that lasts.

I really can't see that going well at all. Mind you I can't see Max-Seb going well either for the reasons you mention but Max is more aggressive and fundamentally better in all departments than Nico (IMO) and that didn't go well at all.

Any time you have two absolute top talents in the team there will be trouble if there's a WDC on the line.

Exediron wrote:

typaH4okc wrote:I think either Merc or Ferrari will be ready to offer him a good long contract despite what Vettel or Hamilton have to say about it. Its a sensible investment into the future at a right time when either team's top driver is aging.

Vettel is 30; he will still be at peak form at the end of his new contract, and quite possibly/likely for another one after that. Lewis is only 2 years older, and will also still be at peak ability after another hypothetical 3-year contract.

Max isn't going to leave F1 during the next 3 years just because he can't get a winning car. I would personally bet a sizable amount of money that Max will never be teammates with either Lewis or Seb. Those seats are as closed to him as they were to Alonso.

If that is true then why would Merc and Ferrari give Bottas and Raikkonen 1 year contacts ?

mikeyg123 wrote:

Exediron wrote:

typaH4okc wrote:I think either Merc or Ferrari will be ready to offer him a good long contract despite what Vettel or Hamilton have to say about it. Its a sensible investment into the future at a right time when either team's top driver is aging.

Vettel is 30; he will still be at peak form at the end of his new contract, and quite possibly/likely for another one after that. Lewis is only 2 years older, and will also still be at peak ability after another hypothetical 3-year contract.

Max isn't going to leave F1 during the next 3 years just because he can't get a winning car. I would personally bet a sizable amount of money that Max will never be teammates with either Lewis or Seb. Those seats are as closed to him as they were to Alonso.

If that is true then why would Merc and Ferrari give Bottas and Raikkonen 1 year contacts ?

Because there's a lot more to the driver market than just Max Verstappen?

I mean, honestly - you think the only possible person they could be considering replacing either driver with is Max? If Kimi (and Bottas, to a lesser extent) keep performing at their current level, they'll probably be replaced - but with other #2 drivers, not a potentially combative top driver.

mikeyg123 wrote:

Exediron wrote:

typaH4okc wrote:I think either Merc or Ferrari will be ready to offer him a good long contract despite what Vettel or Hamilton have to say about it. Its a sensible investment into the future at a right time when either team's top driver is aging.

Vettel is 30; he will still be at peak form at the end of his new contract, and quite possibly/likely for another one after that. Lewis is only 2 years older, and will also still be at peak ability after another hypothetical 3-year contract.

Max isn't going to leave F1 during the next 3 years just because he can't get a winning car. I would personally bet a sizable amount of money that Max will never be teammates with either Lewis or Seb. Those seats are as closed to him as they were to Alonso.

If that is true then why would Merc and Ferrari give Bottas and Raikkonen 1 year contacts ?

I think both Mercedes and Ferrari want to secure one of the two Red Bull drivers. I think Ferrari has a more pressing need as Raikkonen has been sub-par and they are trying to win a title for the first time in a decade. For Mercedes, Hamilton is in top form and Bottas is doing what they need of him so there is no real urgency there but I think they would like to secure someone that they can hang their hat on in the event that Lewis decides to retire. I personally think he has a good 5-6 years left but it's always possible he may retire early or simply go to a different team.

I too would guess Ricciardo to Ferrari in 2019 but I've heard that Mercedes made inquiries into him already. I think they might have designs on bringing him to the team. One way or another, I see Daniel leaving RBR after next season. Max, my gut tells me, will stay in the event that Daniel goes to Merc. I don't think the Ferrari brain-trust would go for him just yet. If Daniel goes to Ferrari or chooses to stay put, I can definitely see Max ending up at Mercedes. Wouldn't be shocked if Le Clerc ends up at Ferrari in 2019.

I think Dan's a better fit for Mercedes. Top quality but takes big inter team battles in his stride twice already. That could change under WDC fight conditions but I think that partnership is the least volatile on offer with a top driver so he'll be in a good spot for both Ferrari and Mercedes but I think Dan fancies having a go at Lewis to try and add him to his list.

Exediron wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:

Exediron wrote:

typaH4okc wrote:I think either Merc or Ferrari will be ready to offer him a good long contract despite what Vettel or Hamilton have to say about it. Its a sensible investment into the future at a right time when either team's top driver is aging.

Vettel is 30; he will still be at peak form at the end of his new contract, and quite possibly/likely for another one after that. Lewis is only 2 years older, and will also still be at peak ability after another hypothetical 3-year contract.

Max isn't going to leave F1 during the next 3 years just because he can't get a winning car. I would personally bet a sizable amount of money that Max will never be teammates with either Lewis or Seb. Those seats are as closed to him as they were to Alonso.

If that is true then why would Merc and Ferrari give Bottas and Raikkonen 1 year contacts ?

Because there's a lot more to the driver market than just Max Verstappen?

I mean, honestly - you think the only possible person they could be considering replacing either driver with is Max? If Kimi (and Bottas, to a lesser extent) keep performing at their current level, they'll probably be replaced - but with other #2 drivers, not a potentially combative top driver.

If you want another number 2 then why bother to replace them at all? The argument for not hiring Verstappen stands up for pretty much any top driver and if they wanted a comfortable number 2 then Bottas at least would have gotten a long term deal. That he didn't shows that Mercedes are willing to be open minded. I could see them taking Verstappen. They gave a new contract to Rosberg at a time when he and Hamilton had the worst inter team driver relationship probably ever. That shows they are happy to deal with nonsense between their drivers.

mikeyg123 wrote:

Exediron wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:

Exediron wrote:

typaH4okc wrote:I think either Merc or Ferrari will be ready to offer him a good long contract despite what Vettel or Hamilton have to say about it. Its a sensible investment into the future at a right time when either team's top driver is aging.

Vettel is 30; he will still be at peak form at the end of his new contract, and quite possibly/likely for another one after that. Lewis is only 2 years older, and will also still be at peak ability after another hypothetical 3-year contract.

Max isn't going to leave F1 during the next 3 years just because he can't get a winning car. I would personally bet a sizable amount of money that Max will never be teammates with either Lewis or Seb. Those seats are as closed to him as they were to Alonso.

If that is true then why would Merc and Ferrari give Bottas and Raikkonen 1 year contacts ?

Because there's a lot more to the driver market than just Max Verstappen?

I mean, honestly - you think the only possible person they could be considering replacing either driver with is Max? If Kimi (and Bottas, to a lesser extent) keep performing at their current level, they'll probably be replaced - but with other #2 drivers, not a potentially combative top driver.

If you want another number 2 then why bother to replace them at all? The argument for not hiring Verstappen stands up for pretty much any top driver and if they wanted a comfortable number 2 then Bottas at least would have gotten a long term deal. That he didn't shows that Mercedes are willing to be open minded. I could see them taking Verstappen. They gave a new contract to Rosberg at a time when he and Hamilton had the worst inter team driver relationship probably ever. That shows they are happy to deal with nonsense between their drivers.

Yes I'd have to agree here. One year extensions for Kimi and Bottas indicates that both teams are keeping their options open for a bigger name

mikeyg123 wrote:

Exediron wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:

Exediron wrote:

typaH4okc wrote:I think either Merc or Ferrari will be ready to offer him a good long contract despite what Vettel or Hamilton have to say about it. Its a sensible investment into the future at a right time when either team's top driver is aging.

Vettel is 30; he will still be at peak form at the end of his new contract, and quite possibly/likely for another one after that. Lewis is only 2 years older, and will also still be at peak ability after another hypothetical 3-year contract.

Max isn't going to leave F1 during the next 3 years just because he can't get a winning car. I would personally bet a sizable amount of money that Max will never be teammates with either Lewis or Seb. Those seats are as closed to him as they were to Alonso.

If that is true then why would Merc and Ferrari give Bottas and Raikkonen 1 year contacts ?

Because there's a lot more to the driver market than just Max Verstappen?

I mean, honestly - you think the only possible person they could be considering replacing either driver with is Max? If Kimi (and Bottas, to a lesser extent) keep performing at their current level, they'll probably be replaced - but with other #2 drivers, not a potentially combative top driver.

If you want another number 2 then why bother to replace them at all? The argument for not hiring Verstappen stands up for pretty much any top driver and if they wanted a comfortable number 2 then Bottas at least would have gotten a long term deal. That he didn't shows that Mercedes are willing to be open minded. I could see them taking Verstappen. They gave a new contract to Rosberg at a time when he and Hamilton had the worst inter team driver relationship probably ever. That shows they are happy to deal with nonsense between their drivers.

I can't even see Verstappen being a player in the market next year.

With Ricciardo out of contract at the end of next season and Max tied up with RB until the end of 2019, I can't see RB allowing Max to even entertain the thought about driving anything other than a RB in 2019, especially if Sainz lights up Renault and they decide to try buy his contract out. So keeping this in mind I'd bet there's no way Max will not be at RB in 2019 and Ricciardo will end up at either Ferrari or Merc. This could compromise Max into the future as RB look to be a tad thin of F1 ready talent at the moment. IF Ricciardo and Sainz go, that leaves probably Max & Kvyat with F1 experience for RB & Gasly and God knows who for TR.

Even if Sainz returns and Ricciardo goes, logic would say that'll leave Max and Sainz at RB with maybe Kvyat & Gasly at TR.

The only thing that I thought of that might bring Max into the market a year early is if Mercedes do something a bit surprising and offer an engine deal RB could badge as Aston Martin in exchange for Max getting out for 2019.

If Renault do refuse to supply RB for 2019 and Honda haven't shown enough progress next summer then that could be tempting for RB if they could hold onto Dan and bring Sainz back.

Too many moving parts probably but with the engine situations as well as the driver contracts it's going to be one mad summer silly season.

That would be pretty mad if it happened. I guess Sainz and Renault/Mclaren have shown the way with these kind of deals.

I still think there's something to come out of that deal. Toro Rosso/Red Bull lost a class driver and the Renault deal, and have got a questionable engine in return? They have got the blunt end of the stick so far

bradtheboywonder wrote:That would be pretty mad if it happened. I guess Sainz and Renault/Mclaren have shown the way with these kind of deals.

I still think there's something to come out of that deal. Toro Rosso/Red Bull lost a class driver and the Renault deal, and have got a questionable engine in return? They have got the blunt end of the stick so far

Yeah STR got the dirty end of the stick for sure but they did get a handy injection of cash so long term it will be a good thing for Faenza no doubt.

And for a Minardi fan or someone with a soft spot for them, which is just about everyone, they now have works support which is brilliant.

Just occurred to me Alonso has had works support every year of his career bar his year with Minardi and now next year Alonso wont have works support but Faenza will with Honda.

Mad.

Given Alonso's decision timing issues over last few years - what's the bet that Honda go past Renault in terms of engine performance next year and get competitive?

F1Oz wrote:Given Alonso's decision timing issues over last few years - what's the bet that Honda go past Renault in terms of engine performance next year and get competitive?

You know, I think it's almost guaranteed that Honda will overtake Renault. The god of irony demands it!
I doubt Fernando's inner gaskets will be able to stop from blowing if it happens.

Laz_T800 wrote:

F1Oz wrote:Given Alonso's decision timing issues over last few years - what's the bet that Honda go past Renault in terms of engine performance next year and get competitive?

You know, I think it's almost guaranteed that Honda will overtake Renault. The god of irony demands it!
I doubt Fernando's inner gaskets will be able to stop from blowing if it happens.

Nailed it!

After the McLaren debacle Honda had the choice to exit the field (again) or play on.

Given that they're playing on I have to assume that they're doubling down and could well catch up to Renault and maybe even Ferrari and Merc in terms of power unit performance.

A 2019 Red Bull Honda with the enough power, good aero and a chassis to at least match the Merc and Ferrari would probably keep Max in the RB fold, especially if Dan was somewhere else and Max was the clear No. 1 driver.

What ever the case I think the Torro Rosso Honda represents Red Bull hedging their bets given that they could be losing Renault power in 2019.

mikeyg123 wrote:
If you want another number 2 then why bother to replace them at all? The argument for not hiring Verstappen stands up for pretty much any top driver and if they wanted a comfortable number 2 then Bottas at least would have gotten a long term deal. That he didn't shows that Mercedes are willing to be open minded. I could see them taking Verstappen. They gave a new contract to Rosberg at a time when he and Hamilton had the worst inter team driver relationship probably ever. That shows they are happy to deal with nonsense between their drivers.

Bottas is keeping the seat warm for Ocon.

F1Oz wrote:Given Alonso's decision timing issues over last few years - what's the bet that Honda go past Renault in terms of engine performance next year and get competitive?

Zero.

GingerFurball wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:
If you want another number 2 then why bother to replace them at all? The argument for not hiring Verstappen stands up for pretty much any top driver and if they wanted a comfortable number 2 then Bottas at least would have gotten a long term deal. That he didn't shows that Mercedes are willing to be open minded. I could see them taking Verstappen. They gave a new contract to Rosberg at a time when he and Hamilton had the worst inter team driver relationship probably ever. That shows they are happy to deal with nonsense between their drivers.

Bottas is keeping the seat warm for Ocon.

If they wanted Ocon why not bring him in for next year? He's close to Perez on his debut season that probably puts him very close to Bottas as it is.

If the opportunity to sign Verstappen came up Merc would take it I think. I don't see them turning down a driver who is clearly quicker than Ricciardo for one that is clearly slower than Perez.

mikeyg123 wrote:

GingerFurball wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:
If you want another number 2 then why bother to replace them at all? The argument for not hiring Verstappen stands up for pretty much any top driver and if they wanted a comfortable number 2 then Bottas at least would have gotten a long term deal. That he didn't shows that Mercedes are willing to be open minded. I could see them taking Verstappen. They gave a new contract to Rosberg at a time when he and Hamilton had the worst inter team driver relationship probably ever. That shows they are happy to deal with nonsense between their drivers.

Bottas is keeping the seat warm for Ocon.

If they wanted Ocon why not bring him in for next year? He's close to Perez on his debut season that probably puts him very close to Bottas as it is.

If the opportunity to sign Verstappen came up Merc would take it I think. I don't see them turning down a driver who is clearly quicker than Ricciardo for one that is clearly slower than Perez.

Because they think Bottas is a better bet than Ocon right now.

GingerFurball wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:
If you want another number 2 then why bother to replace them at all? The argument for not hiring Verstappen stands up for pretty much any top driver and if they wanted a comfortable number 2 then Bottas at least would have gotten a long term deal. That he didn't shows that Mercedes are willing to be open minded. I could see them taking Verstappen. They gave a new contract to Rosberg at a time when he and Hamilton had the worst inter team driver relationship probably ever. That shows they are happy to deal with nonsense between their drivers.

Bottas is keeping the seat warm for Ocon.

I think he'll have to step it up a bit if he wants to displace Bottas. He's doing fine but he's usually behind Perez and I'm not sure a top tier talent would be to this extent.

Next season will be more revealing but he needs to beat Perez pretty convincingly, at least as convincingly as he himself is being beaten now, to get that Mercedes seat I think.

Going 50-50 with him would be an improvement over this year but that puts him in the Hulk bracket and I think Bottas is pretty much with Hulk and Perez, if not a bit ahead anyway so there'd be not much point changing imo.

Lotus49 wrote:

GingerFurball wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:
If you want another number 2 then why bother to replace them at all? The argument for not hiring Verstappen stands up for pretty much any top driver and if they wanted a comfortable number 2 then Bottas at least would have gotten a long term deal. That he didn't shows that Mercedes are willing to be open minded. I could see them taking Verstappen. They gave a new contract to Rosberg at a time when he and Hamilton had the worst inter team driver relationship probably ever. That shows they are happy to deal with nonsense between their drivers.

Bottas is keeping the seat warm for Ocon.

I think he'll have to step it up a bit if he wants to displace Bottas. He's doing fine but he's usually behind Perez and I'm not sure a top tier talent would be to this extent.

Next season will be more revealing but he needs to beat Perez pretty convincingly, at least as convincingly as he himself is being beaten now, to get that Mercedes seat I think.

Going 50-50 with him would be an improvement over this year but that puts him in the Hulk bracket and I think Bottas is pretty much with Hulk and Perez, if not a bit ahead anyway so there'd be not much point changing imo.

I think Bottas is has been quite a bit better than Hulkenberg and Perez over the past few years. He's made a lot less mistakes and even this year, his mistakes have been less costly than theirs. Hulkenberg collected 4 penalty points in China and had a messy race and then crashed into the wall in Baku. Perez and Ocon both had a bad race in Monaco and Perez took Kvyat out. And then Ocon messed Force India's race up in Baku. And Perez also had a rather poor race in Spa too.

Bottas may have been involved in a few incidents, but his worst was probably spinning under the safety car in China. But he hasn't been totally to blame for any incidents this year and usually keeps out of trouble. And at the start of the season, he often was pretty close to Hamilton.

I think Bottas is quite clearly a level above both these drivers. But I think Ocon may have the biggest chance to improve. I actually don't think Bottas has ever been responsible for his own or anyone elses retirement during his F1 career. And if I am correct, this includes qualifying and practice too. I didn't follow Bottas as closely in 2013 so I may have missed something but virtually all other drivers on the grid have been responsible for their own or someone else’s retirement over the past few years. I think Bottas is pretty good at keeping out of trouble. Even though he does have incidents, they are rarely bad enough to badly affect him or others if he was to blame.

TheGiantHogweed wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:

GingerFurball wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:
If you want another number 2 then why bother to replace them at all? The argument for not hiring Verstappen stands up for pretty much any top driver and if they wanted a comfortable number 2 then Bottas at least would have gotten a long term deal. That he didn't shows that Mercedes are willing to be open minded. I could see them taking Verstappen. They gave a new contract to Rosberg at a time when he and Hamilton had the worst inter team driver relationship probably ever. That shows they are happy to deal with nonsense between their drivers.

Bottas is keeping the seat warm for Ocon.

I think he'll have to step it up a bit if he wants to displace Bottas. He's doing fine but he's usually behind Perez and I'm not sure a top tier talent would be to this extent.

Next season will be more revealing but he needs to beat Perez pretty convincingly, at least as convincingly as he himself is being beaten now, to get that Mercedes seat I think.

Going 50-50 with him would be an improvement over this year but that puts him in the Hulk bracket and I think Bottas is pretty much with Hulk and Perez, if not a bit ahead anyway so there'd be not much point changing imo.

I think Bottas is has been quite a bit better than Hulkenberg and Perez over the past few years. He's made a lot less mistakes and even this year, his mistakes have been less costly than theirs. Hulkenberg collected 4 penalty points in China and had a messy race and then crashed into the wall in Baku. Perez and Ocon both had a bad race in Monaco and Perez took Kvyat out. And then Ocon messed Force India's race up in Baku. And Perez also had a rather poor race in Spa too.

Bottas may have been involved in a few incidents, but his worst was probably spinning under the safety car in China. But he hasn't been totally to blame for any incidents this year and usually keeps out of trouble. And at the start of the season, he often was pretty close to Hamilton.

I think Bottas is quite clearly a level above both these drivers. But I think Ocon may have the biggest chance to improve. I actually don't think Bottas has ever been responsible for his own or anyone elses retirement during his F1 career. And if I am correct, this includes qualifying and practice too. I didn't follow Bottas as closely in 2013 so I may have missed something but virtually all other drivers on the grid have been responsible for their own or someone else’s retirement over the past few years. I think Bottas is pretty good at keeping out of trouble. Even though he does have incidents, they are rarely bad enough to badly affect him or others if he was to blame.

Bottas spun as you say but also was responsible (imo) for the T1 carnage in Spain by braking far too early, he was responsible for hitting Kimi in Baku too imo. He started the season quite well but since Canada he's not been very impressive at all and the last 2 weekends have been pretty dire in particular. The qualifying gaps have got worse and as talked about in another thread he still disappears for 1 stint per race.

He's had a few tangles with Kimi that ended in retirement but I can't recall if be received the blame for it though to be fair. I don't think he's dirty or anything either, but maybe a bit clumsy or gets caught dithering.

I think he could well be a bit ahead of Hulk and Perez but I'm not 100% positive. They had similar cars last year and Bottas was sandwiched in between them. Hulk and Perez haven't had as good a car yet, and they may never, but I think if/when Bottas leaves Mercedes his destination could answer it as there's a fair chance he could partner either.

Lotus49 wrote:

TheGiantHogweed wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:

GingerFurball wrote:

mikeyg123 wrote:
If you want another number 2 then why bother to replace them at all? The argument for not hiring Verstappen stands up for pretty much any top driver and if they wanted a comfortable number 2 then Bottas at least would have gotten a long term deal. That he didn't shows that Mercedes are willing to be open minded. I could see them taking Verstappen. They gave a new contract to Rosberg at a time when he and Hamilton had the worst inter team driver relationship probably ever. That shows they are happy to deal with nonsense between their drivers.

Bottas is keeping the seat warm for Ocon.

I think he'll have to step it up a bit if he wants to displace Bottas. He's doing fine but he's usually behind Perez and I'm not sure a top tier talent would be to this extent.

Next season will be more revealing but he needs to beat Perez pretty convincingly, at least as convincingly as he himself is being beaten now, to get that Mercedes seat I think.

Going 50-50 with him would be an improvement over this year but that puts him in the Hulk bracket and I think Bottas is pretty much with Hulk and Perez, if not a bit ahead anyway so there'd be not much point changing imo.

I think Bottas is has been quite a bit better than Hulkenberg and Perez over the past few years. He's made a lot less mistakes and even this year, his mistakes have been less costly than theirs. Hulkenberg collected 4 penalty points in China and had a messy race and then crashed into the wall in Baku. Perez and Ocon both had a bad race in Monaco and Perez took Kvyat out. And then Ocon messed Force India's race up in Baku. And Perez also had a rather poor race in Spa too.

Bottas may have been involved in a few incidents, but his worst was probably spinning under the safety car in China. But he hasn't been totally to blame for any incidents this year and usually keeps out of trouble. And at the start of the season, he often was pretty close to Hamilton.

I think Bottas is quite clearly a level above both these drivers. But I think Ocon may have the biggest chance to improve. I actually don't think Bottas has ever been responsible for his own or anyone elses retirement during his F1 career. And if I am correct, this includes qualifying and practice too. I didn't follow Bottas as closely in 2013 so I may have missed something but virtually all other drivers on the grid have been responsible for their own or someone else’s retirement over the past few years. I think Bottas is pretty good at keeping out of trouble. Even though he does have incidents, they are rarely bad enough to badly affect him or others if he was to blame.

Bottas spun as you say but also was responsible (imo) for the T1 carnage in Spain by braking far too early, he was responsible for hitting Kimi in Baku too imo. He started the season quite well but since Canada he's not been very impressive at all and the last 2 weekends have been pretty dire in particular. The qualifying gaps have got worse and as talked about in another thread he still disappears for 1 stint per race.

He's had a few tangles with Kimi that ended in retirement but I can't recall if be received the blame for it though to be fair. I don't think he's dirty or anything either, but maybe a bit clumsy or gets caught dithering.

I think he could well be a bit ahead of Hulk and Perez but I'm not 100% positive. They had similar cars last year and Bottas was sandwiched in between them. Hulk and Perez haven't had as good a car yet, and they may never, but I think if/when Bottas leaves Mercedes his destination could answer it as there's a fair chance he could partner either.

Fair enough that we have different opinions. But the incident in Spain in my opinion was clearly a racing incident. You can say Bottas triggered it by braking early, but Verstappen took the oppertunity to go round the outside when there were already 2 cars on the inside. Bottas then had nowhere to go as Kimi couldn't go left because Verstappen was there. Bottas started it, But Verstappen caused the next part to happen. I agree with what Eddie Jordan said on Channel 4. 3 into 1 corner like that just doesn't work. If I'm honest, Verstappen could have gone wider but it will have been difficult to see Bottas. He also thought that Verstappen was just risking too much. But I can't see it being any more than a racing incident. But since Kimi and Max suffered and Bottas got away with it and it wasn't investigated any further, then Bottas really can't be deemed responsible for this given the decision.

The 2 tangles with Kimi he had in 2015 were clearly both Kimi's fault. In Russia, Kimi dived on the inside from really far back and at the speed he was going, he wouldn't have even made the corner cleanly. He hit Bottas out of the race and got 2 or 3 penalty points and a 30 second time penalty. Then in Mexico this same year, Bottas attempted an overtake and was easily fully alongside and yet Kimi was on the outside of the next corner and squeezed Bottas really tight as if he wasn't there and then broke his own suspension. It was investigated but no further action was taken. I can only assume that this was because the driver at fault retired. If Bottas had suffered, I think Kimi would have got some sort of penalty.

Then in Baku this current year, again we have different opinions but there is nothing wrong with braking early so long as it isn't brake testing someone. Kimi did do a rather risky move on the outside of Bottas and there always was a chance that the kerb would make Bottas loose control. He did sort of put himself in this situation but he also wouldn't have driven here if Kimi hadn't attempted to overtake where he did. I agree with the stewards verdict that Kimi's did a speculative move on Bottas. It was down to Kimi doing this move that Bottas had to drive on the kerb. But it is true that Bottas could have braked later. But you would have thought braking early can't cause this much of a problem, so I can see why they didn't think Bottas was any more to blame than Kimi. It was deemed to be a 50 - 50 incident and Bottas actually suffered more at this moment in time.

I also have confidence that if Mercedes don't decide to keep Bottas beyond 2018, I think Ferrari will grab him over Kimi. I think it is less likely Bottas will end up going up against Perez or Hulkenberg with another team. Bottas will be the ideal driver to replace Kimi IMO. He is looking quite a bit better than Kimi currently is. And I'm not even sure Mercedes will drop him after next year as I still have a feeling his pace will improve as this is only his first year with Mercedes. And he's against a driver than many consider the best who is in his 5th year with the team.

This just shows how different our opinions are I suppose. I think he's had several very reasonable races since Canada. He won in Austria remember? And also had pretty much the best start possible within the rules of the sport. And since you say the last 2 races have noticeably been even worse, I really can't agree with Italy. Qualifying, ok that wasn't great but it was only on his final lap that he was way down on Hamilton. Before that he was usually about 4 tenths down on each run. In the race. Bottas didn't look to have a weak stint and I can't say this happens every race. But most yes. Mercedes confirmed that they tuned down both of the drivers cars towards the end. Bottas was within 5 seconds of Hamilton pretty much the entire race. This showed Hamilton had the pace to keep Bottas there. But there was no evidence Bottas was much slower than Hamilton that day. But in Singapore, that wasn't the case.

Anyway, I've got far too off topic with this now so I'd better stop here

TheGiantHogweed wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:

TheGiantHogweed wrote:

Lotus49 wrote:

GingerFurball wrote:Bottas is keeping the seat warm for Ocon.

I think he'll have to step it up a bit if he wants to displace Bottas. He's doing fine but he's usually behind Perez and I'm not sure a top tier talent would be to this extent.

Next season will be more revealing but he needs to beat Perez pretty convincingly, at least as convincingly as he himself is being beaten now, to get that Mercedes seat I think.

Going 50-50 with him would be an improvement over this year but that puts him in the Hulk bracket and I think Bottas is pretty much with Hulk and Perez, if not a bit ahead anyway so there'd be not much point changing imo.

I think Bottas is has been quite a bit better than Hulkenberg and Perez over the past few years. He's made a lot less mistakes and even this year, his mistakes have been less costly than theirs. Hulkenberg collected 4 penalty points in China and had a messy race and then crashed into the wall in Baku. Perez and Ocon both had a bad race in Monaco and Perez took Kvyat out. And then Ocon messed Force India's race up in Baku. And Perez also had a rather poor race in Spa too.

Bottas may have been involved in a few incidents, but his worst was probably spinning under the safety car in China. But he hasn't been totally to blame for any incidents this year and usually keeps out of trouble. And at the start of the season, he often was pretty close to Hamilton.

I think Bottas is quite clearly a level above both these drivers. But I think Ocon may have the biggest chance to improve. I actually don't think Bottas has ever been responsible for his own or anyone elses retirement during his F1 career. And if I am correct, this includes qualifying and practice too. I didn't follow Bottas as closely in 2013 so I may have missed something but virtually all other drivers on the grid have been responsible for their own or someone else’s retirement over the past few years. I think Bottas is pretty good at keeping out of trouble. Even though he does have incidents, they are rarely bad enough to badly affect him or others if he was to blame.

Bottas spun as you say but also was responsible (imo) for the T1 carnage in Spain by braking far too early, he was responsible for hitting Kimi in Baku too imo. He started the season quite well but since Canada he's not been very impressive at all and the last 2 weekends have been pretty dire in particular. The qualifying gaps have got worse and as talked about in another thread he still disappears for 1 stint per race.

He's had a few tangles with Kimi that ended in retirement but I can't recall if be received the blame for it though to be fair. I don't think he's dirty or anything either, but maybe a bit clumsy or gets caught dithering.

I think he could well be a bit ahead of Hulk and Perez but I'm not 100% positive. They had similar cars last year and Bottas was sandwiched in between them. Hulk and Perez haven't had as good a car yet, and they may never, but I think if/when Bottas leaves Mercedes his destination could answer it as there's a fair chance he could partner either.

Fair enough that we have different opinions. But the incident in Spain in my opinion was clearly a racing incident. You can say Bottas triggered it by braking early, but Verstappen took the oppertunity to go round the outside when there were already 2 cars on the inside. Bottas then had nowhere to go as Kimi couldn't go left because Verstappen was there. Bottas started it, But Verstappen caused the next part to happen. I agree with what Eddie Jordan said on Channel 4. 3 into 1 corner like that just doesn't work. If I'm honest, Verstappen could have gone wider but it will have been difficult to see Bottas. He also thought that Verstappen was just risking too much. But I can't see it being any more than a racing incident. But since Kimi and Max suffered and Bottas got away with it and it wasn't investigated any further, then Bottas really can't be deemed responsible for this given the decision.

The 2 tangles with Kimi he had in 2015 were clearly both Kimi's fault. In Russia, Kimi dived on the inside from really far back and at the speed he was going, he wouldn't have even made the corner cleanly. He hit Bottas out of the race and got 2 or 3 penalty points and a 30 second time penalty. Then in Mexico this same year, Bottas attempted an overtake and was easily fully alongside and yet Kimi was on the outside of the next corner and squeezed Bottas really tight as if he wasn't there and then broke his own suspension. It was investigated but no further action was taken. I can only assume that this was because the driver at fault retired. If Bottas had suffered, I think Kimi would have got some sort of penalty.

Then in Baku this current year, again we have different opinions but there is nothing wrong with braking early so long as it isn't brake testing someone. Kimi did do a rather risky move on the outside of Bottas and there always was a chance that the kerb would make Bottas loose control. He did sort of put himself in this situation but he also wouldn't have driven here if Kimi hadn't attempted to overtake where he did. I agree with the stewards verdict that Kimi's did a speculative move on Bottas. It was down to Kimi doing this move that Bottas had to drive on the kerb. But it is true that Bottas could have braked later. But you would have thought braking early can't cause this much of a problem, so I can see why they didn't think Bottas was any more to blame than Kimi. It was deemed to be a 50 - 50 incident and Bottas actually suffered more at this moment in time.

I also have confidence that if Mercedes don't decide to keep Bottas beyond 2018, I think Ferrari will grab him over Kimi. I think it is less likely Bottas will end up going up against Perez or Hulkenberg with another team. Bottas will be the ideal driver to replace Kimi IMO. He is looking quite a bit better than Kimi currently is. And I'm not even sure Mercedes will drop him after next year as I still have a feeling his pace will improve as this is only his first year with Mercedes. And he's against a driver than many consider the best who is in his 5th year with the team.

This just shows how different our opinions are I suppose. I think he's had several very reasonable races since Canada. He won in Austria remember? And also had pretty much the best start possible within the rules of the sport. And since you say the last 2 races have noticeably been even worse, I really can't agree with Italy. Qualifying, ok that wasn't great but it was only on his final lap that he was way down on Hamilton. Before that he was usually about 4 tenths down on each run. In the race. Bottas didn't look to have a weak stint and I can't say this happens every race. But most yes. Mercedes confirmed that they tuned down both of the drivers cars towards the end. Bottas was within 5 seconds of Hamilton pretty much the entire race. This showed Hamilton had the pace to keep Bottas there. But there was no evidence Bottas was much slower than Hamilton that day. But in Singapore, that wasn't the case.

Anyway, I've got far too off topic with this now so I'd better stop here

I think we're just very far apart on our views on him which is fair enough, I pretty much disagree with everything bar the 2015 Kimi-Bottas tangles,lol.

Example in Spain that while I agree 3 into T1 is risky but it was only a 3 abreast situation because of Bottas. He should have been ahead with Kimi and Max going in 2 abreast behind which is what they were expecting but Bottas braking so early is what turned it into a 3 which is why I find him responsible for it.

I also think Ferrari will be looking at someone like Dan or Max if Leclerc isn't deemed ready. I don't think Bottas will get the shout and to be fair to Kimi he's been a lot better in Q since Monaco than Bottas. I can see Bottas at a Renault if Sainz gets the call to replace whatever Bull took the Mercedes seat if that's the way it goes though.

Still a great seat of course and don't get me wrong, I do think he likely leads those two we're talking about but I'm just a bit disappointed since Canada, especially with the quali gaps. It's his first year though and he's got himself another to shut me up!.

Dan collects points, and sometimes makes a decent move. Offtrack he’s good fun, always smiling and making jokes. Teammate wise he’s perfect. Ontrack though, he’s just plain dull.

Dan is no pancake, and I place him above Seb; but the fact that his non-finishing teammate, with not even half his points, is still claimed to be the better driver by most, says it all really.

Knuppel1983 wrote:Dan is no pancake, and I place him above Seb; but the fact that his non-finishing teammate, with not even half his points, is still claimed to be the better driver by most, says it all really.

Yup, it perfectly sums up how out of control Max's hype is.

Seriously, what is the fact that his teammate is 'claimed to be the better driver by most' supposed to say? It says that fans rate Max higher than Dan; that's it. Flash back to 2013, and I bet you that over 90% of fans would have rated Kimi above Ricciardo. Does that also say it all?

Why is it that Max fans seem so desperate for Max to be better than Dan (and everyone else) now, instead of just talking about what he's actually done? He's actually turned the qualifying battle around (albeit from a small margin one way to a small margin the other), he's actually improved his starts dramatically, and his pace is usually impressive while he's still in the race. But there's not enough of a real comparison to say he's just plain better (or not, for that matter) this season. And yet after every race we have people ducking in here to announce their proof that one driver or the other is definitively better. If one of them was, there wouldn't be this much discussion and nitpicking! Where's the thread on whether Sainz is better than Kvyat? It doesn't exist, because that's a case where one driver really is clearly better.

If Dan and Max have a clean remainder of the season and Max is obviously quicker to the end of the races, I will admit that he's actually outperforming Dan in races. But the sample we have right now doesn't provide clear support for that conclusion.

paul_gmb wrote:

tootsie323 wrote:

lamo wrote:

tootsie323 wrote:

paul_gmb wrote:Daniel's showing was beyond poor.

He's quite the loudmouth about taking oportunities, but yesterday for me it was just a bad showing from him.

Terrible. Fancy nursing a gearbox issue and finishing second to a Mercedes that was able to spread its wings thanks to the conditions - beating another Mercedes to boot (albeit one with a rather parched driver thanks to his drinks system failing him).

Between laps 4-10 in between the first two SC's, Hamilton did build a 5.2 second lead on him in 6 racing laps. That was before his gearbox issue. Wet weather isn't Ricciardo's strongest point although the two team mates who out shone him are rain masters - Vettel and Max but Vergne was also better too. Kyvat was also much closer to DR in the wet than the dry.

I'm not arguing with that. The use of the words, 'beyond poor,' to describe Riccardo's race performance, however, pretty much invited a facetious response as far as I'm concerned.

Hey, if the problem was real, than I put my hand up and say I was wrong. It just seemed like a good time to eat the mercs and he didn't manage.

Just confirmed on Sky that it was costing him half a second per lap in Singapore. No oil left in it by end of race. They are going to test it out today to see if it can be saved

Exediron wrote:

Knuppel1983 wrote:Dan is no pancake, and I place him above Seb; but the fact that his non-finishing teammate, with not even half his points, is still claimed to be the better driver by most, says it all really.

Yup, it perfectly sums up how out of control Max's hype is.

Seriously, what is the fact that his teammate is 'claimed to be the better driver by most' supposed to say? It says that fans rate Max higher than Dan; that's it. Flash back to 2013, and I bet you that over 90% of fans would have rated Kimi above Ricciardo. Does that also say it all?

Why is it that Max fans seem so desperate for Max to be better than Dan (and everyone else) now, instead of just talking about what he's actually done? He's actually turned the qualifying battle around (albeit from a small margin one way to a small margin the other), he's actually improved his starts dramatically, and his pace is usually impressive while he's still in the race. But there's not enough of a real comparison to say he's just plain better (or not, for that matter) this season. And yet after every race we have people ducking in here to announce their proof that one driver or the other is definitively better. If one of them was, there wouldn't be this much discussion and nitpicking! Where's the thread on whether Sainz is better than Kvyat? It doesn't exist, because that's a case where one driver really is clearly better.

If Dan and Max have a clean remainder of the season and Max is obviously quicker to the end of the races, I will admit that he's actually outperforming Dan in races. But the sample we have right now doesn't provide clear support for that conclusion.

Well said.

Exediron wrote:

Knuppel1983 wrote:Dan is no pancake, and I place him above Seb; but the fact that his non-finishing teammate, with not even half his points, is still claimed to be the better driver by most, says it all really.

Yup, it perfectly sums up how out of control Max's hype is.

Seriously, what is the fact that his teammate is 'claimed to be the better driver by most' supposed to say? It says that fans rate Max higher than Dan; that's it. Flash back to 2013, and I bet you that over 90% of fans would have rated Kimi above Ricciardo. Does that also say it all?

Not really a fair comparison at all. Kimi and Ricciardo had not been team mates for 30 odd races and it would have been entirely guess work as they hadn't even had a team mate in common.

We are seeing Max vs Dan in front of us right now. This is completely different.

Also with the qualifying advantage, two small gaps actually make quite a big turn around of maybe 0.3 overall?

lamo wrote:

Exediron wrote:

Knuppel1983 wrote:Dan is no pancake, and I place him above Seb; but the fact that his non-finishing teammate, with not even half his points, is still claimed to be the better driver by most, says it all really.

Yup, it perfectly sums up how out of control Max's hype is.

Seriously, what is the fact that his teammate is 'claimed to be the better driver by most' supposed to say? It says that fans rate Max higher than Dan; that's it. Flash back to 2013, and I bet you that over 90% of fans would have rated Kimi above Ricciardo. Does that also say it all?

Not really a fair comparison at all. Kimi and Ricciardo had not been team mates for 30 odd races and it would have been entirely guess work as they hadn't even had a team mate in common.

We are seeing Max vs Dan in front of us right now. This is completely different.

Also with the qualifying advantage, two small gaps actually make quite a big turn around of maybe 0.3 overall?

I think it's fair to say that most people wanted to see Vettel tested against Kimi, who would have known that the greater test was Ricciardo?

My feeling is we'd have seen more races like this without all the bad luck Max has been having.

Covalent wrote:My feeling is we'd have seen more races like this without all the bad luck Max has been having.

Do you mean wins or just being quicker than Ricciardo? Not sure about the former but the latter is likely. Ricciardo had a broken bargeboard, but I don't think it hindered him much if at all. By the time he was past Bottas the gap was around 11 seconds, and 22 at the flag. I'd say Max's claim of having 3 tenths in hand over the moment is probably close to the mark.

I can agree that Verstappen seems overall quicker than Ricciardo. But I think ricciardo is overall the better racer and does overtakes more cleanly. He also hasn't been ruined a couple of the teams results this year, unlike Verstappen. It would well be possible that Verstappen turns out to be better, but this year, I don't think there has been enough evidence. I still think on the whole when we include everything about them, Ricciardo is better, but not by much. One of the best things about Ricciardo is that i think he's possibly one of the best drivers on the grid when it comes to making to most from an unexpected opportunity. It is then when I think he is extremely good.

Covalent wrote:My feeling is we'd have seen more races like this without all the bad luck Max has been having.

Yea, Max is just plain quicker. It has been evident to anyone who has paid attention to those two all year.

This race embodied my exact feelings, that Verstappen is usually the faster one for as long as we can compare the both of them, and that the idea that Ricciardo sets the car up for Sundays and is deliberately slower at the start of the race to kick it up a notch in the second half is just a fabrication because it fits.

Those who insist that there's not enough evidence to go by, I can understand because there isn't a lot, but that's neither of the driver's fault. But most of what we've seen follows the above opinion.