2017 Season - What do we think is going to happen??

[davethepirate]

Im trying to get a feel to see how everyone thinks F1 in 2017 will go down.

Will merc dominate as they have done over the last few years? Will Rosberg be up there with Hamilton, knowing Hamilton's driving style will probably suit the new regulations more?

Will Red Bull be up there also as its going to be more downforce and aero driven?

Some ideas on how you think it will be throughout the season.

[Jenson's Understeer]

Red Bull and Mercedes fighting for the title with the Bulls ultimately winning the WCC and providing a first WDC for one of their drivers. Ferrari in 3rd with McLaren gradually hauling themselves towards the podium and finishing 4th in the WCC. Renault, Force India and Toro Rosso in a scrap for 5th, 6th and 7th, with Williams falling further down the order and ending the season in 8th in the WCC. Haas scoring points again but not regularly fighting for them, and Manor ahead of Sauber, the latter again failing to score a point.

Although I hope/expect to be completely wrong, and ideally pleasantly surprised by a few of the lower teams!

[Sutton]

3 or more teams capable for race wins and titles would be a nice change after Red Bull domination immediately followed by Merc domination.

[Badgeronimous]

I think the Bulls and Mercs will be very close. Ferrari 3rd, Renault/McLaren 4th/5th then Williams/FI/TR, and Sauber/Manor at the back.

[rivf1]

Mercedes domination exactly last the last three years, they will have the same PU advantage & only have to match RBR and whatever chassis/aero they come up with (which they easily do now).

[UnlikeUday]

I would love to see Red Bull or Ferrari or McLaren dominate & Mercedes fall down the pecking order. I hope some of the midfield team do surprise. Am keeping a little ope on Force India to shine just because of their excellent team at Silverstone!

[nixxxon]

I dont think Merc will dominate as much as they have been doing. The rule chances will level the field a lot more.
This happened in the past many times already (a team dominantion coming to a stop due to rule changes)

[Blinky McSquinty]

I dont think Merc will dominate as much as they have been doing. The rule chances will level the field a lot more.
This happened in the past many times already (a team dominantion coming to a stop due to rule changes)

That is basically a fact, that major rule changes alter the pecking order and shakes things up.

Rosberg isn't the inferior driver some make him out to be, you don't get 9 wins on just luck or happenstance. So don't count him out, he has proven himself resilient and quick.

For a technical overview of the changes to the car, this web site offers a quality comparison.

http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2016/05/10/s ... 2016-2017/

IMO the dropping of the token system will finally allow other engine manufacturers to close the gap. Although the Mercedes engine package has been nothing less that stellar from it's introduction, only time stands in the way of the competition from meeting, or even exceeding that performance level. Renault and Honda have made massive improvements from last year, and with the token system removed, their pace of improvement will be very impressive. For Ferrari, that should also apply. But we have no idea on what's going on with that outfit. I don't know, Ferrari don't know, even the Three Stooges don't know. Once again, we are witnessing a team in turmoil, and 2017 is a huge unknown.

Personally, I am of the opinion that in 2017 Mercedes will no longer enjoy being dominant, I expect Red Bull to be the team to beat.

[Zoue]

I think the Merc advantage is so much more than their PU. If the reports of their quasi-FRIC system are true, not only does it explain why their car is so good everywhere, but it also means that they will still likely be the team to beat moving forward. Lorenzo tested the W05 a few days ago and by all reports was setting competitive times right from the start. He said he was amazed at how easy to drive it was

However, Red Bull continuously impress with their relentless progress and for them to be doing as well as they have been, despite not being a manufacturer team, is frankly astonishing. With the emphasis being more on aero next year you have to fancy them as they understand aero like nobody else. I'd also bet that McLaren will be pretty strong, based on the fact that their chassis looks pretty good this year and the PU appears to be constantly improving. The new regs were also proposed by them, so they should have a good handle on it, while Promodrou brings a lot of Red Bull knowledge with him and is an excellent aero guy in his own right.

I can't quite place Ferrari. They seem to be the perennial bridesmaid at the moment. I'm sure they will produce a decent car, but I can't say I'm confident it will be a world-beater. And they must be holding their collective breath at whether the car will suit Kimi or not. If it does, they'll be one to watch

[Robot]

RB will fight against Merc for both titles, Ferrari will struggle and McLaren will be in the top 5 all season long.

[slide]

red bull will be strong next year particulary if newy is back full time

[GingerFurball]

Merc will dominate the season.

There's this idea that lack of tokens allows everyone else to close up but how do we know that Mercedes don't have sone engine that is a huge upgrade on what they have just now that they just can't implement under the current regulations?

[kleefton]

I agree redbull will be the team to beat but merc should still be close to them. We will not se the same level of domination currently going on. Ferrari i have no idea where theyll be. I think renault might surprise people and run in the top 3 or 4. I have no confidence in mclaren. Even though the engine should improve i dont see anything more than the midfield for them. Force India may also surprise. Toro rosso should be better off with their renault engine. Manor should remain last. Sauber to move up the grid a little. Haas to continue being a midfield car. Williams to move down the grid a la 2013.

[mikeyg123]

Merc will dominate the season.

There's this idea that lack of tokens allows everyone else to close up but how do we know that Mercedes don't have sone engine that is a huge upgrade on what they have just now that they just can't implement under the current regulations?

Law of diminishing returns makes that less likely.

[Jenson's Understeer]

Merc will dominate the season.

There's this idea that lack of tokens allows everyone else to close up but how do we know that Mercedes don't have sone engine that is a huge upgrade on what they have just now that they just can't implement under the current regulations?

Law of diminishing returns makes that less likely.

Indeed. I would expect Honda and Renault to be able to essentially throw money at their problems now, limited only by the number of engine elements they can introduce before they start getting grid penalties.

[j man]

Red Bull will run away with it. As I understand it they pretty much wrote the aero rules.

[Vyse]

Who is to say they are anywhere near the limit yet?

Merc will dominate the season.

There's this idea that lack of tokens allows everyone else to close up but how do we know that Mercedes don't have sone engine that is a huge upgrade on what they have just now that they just can't implement under the current regulations?

Law of diminishing returns makes that less likely.

[mikeyg123]

Who is to say they are anywhere near the limit yet?

Merc will dominate the season.

There's this idea that lack of tokens allows everyone else to close up but how do we know that Mercedes don't have sone engine that is a huge upgrade on what they have just now that they just can't implement under the current regulations?

Law of diminishing returns makes that less likely.

It's possible. Even then Merc still have to fight against the law of diminishing returns.

It's certainly possible they may extend there advantage, but there is more chance of it closing.

[Lotus49]

Who is to say they are anywhere near the limit yet?

Merc will dominate the season.

There's this idea that lack of tokens allows everyone else to close up but how do we know that Mercedes don't have sone engine that is a huge upgrade on what they have just now that they just can't implement under the current regulations?

Law of diminishing returns makes that less likely.

They had an upgrade planned for Austin but it didn't give enough performance gain on the dyno so they shelved it. It may be an indication that future gains on the PU side will be quite small.

Packaging advantages like with the mgu-h position and splitting the turbo gave them a head start, other teams have responded to that and can again with the token removal (Honda are basically going to copy it next year for example)

Then they had the lean burn/pre chamber technology which was huge but all teams will have it next year. Theirs is more advanced because they've run it longer but it has a ceiling through the fuel and Ferrari and Renault will catch it, Ferrari are pretty much there already. Honda are a year behind and will take time though. There's actually just as much scope for another PU to surpass it as there is for Mercedes to get stronger just on the strength of the fuel if for example Shells is better than Petronas.

There just isn't much more scope left from the PU, it's hard to imagine that there's something they've overlooked outside packaging and combustion which is where the dominance came from. Reliability (don't snigger Lewis fans) will be the main strength as they've ran that combustion technique at higher modes the longest and can already run it at stages through the race while others are a little behind(Ferrari) others are a little behind that (Renault) while Honda have never ran it yet and will be trying a completely new configuration as well (The Mercedes layout).

But even then it's limited how long they can run the highest modes because of the fuel capacity.

Their FRIC style front suspension and other yet revealed car "tricks" for next year will be where the big gains come from.

[rodH]

Who is to say they are anywhere near the limit yet?

Merc will dominate the season.

There's this idea that lack of tokens allows everyone else to close up but how do we know that Mercedes don't have sone engine that is a huge upgrade on what they have just now that they just can't implement under the current regulations?

Law of diminishing returns makes that less likely.

Honda, Renault, Ferrari, etc.... If the gains are there to grab, someone would have figured it out by now. These are some smart people

[rodH]

the big question for me. Will we see more W2W racing up front? Thats what I long for.

[flyboy10]

I think Max is going to be the 2017 champion. I'd happily tell Ladbrokes the same if they will give me odds.

[rivf1]

The splitting of the turbo is still a huge advantage of that merc ICE design, honda did try and copy it but that obviously hasn't worked out so well for them yet, although they do seem to be getting better so i hope for them they make huge gains for next season. The split allows better positioning of components including the ice itself, smaller pipe runs to the inter-cooler, smaller inter-coolers, less lag & that leaves the battery charge for more important things. The benefits of all this is huge for the overall design of the car. Even if Ferrari & Renault catch up with HP they will still not be making that HP as efficiently as the mercedes unless they too fundamentally change the design of their ICE units. If either Ferrari or Renault do go that route, well Mercedes will have 3 seasons and multiple teams worth of data head start.

We all know RB will have a very good chassis and aero, they have proven this over many years now but this current mercedes is no dud with the chassis or aero either, as i said before i see no reason their engineers won't be able to come up with something pretty close to whatever RB come up with. I do hope i'm wrong, i would honestly love nothing more than going into each race not knowing who out merc,rb,ferrai,honda or insert whoever is going to win, it's what the sport really needs right now.

[Blinky McSquinty]

The splitting of the turbo is still a huge advantage of that merc ICE design, honda did try and copy it but that obviously hasn't worked out so well for them yet, although they do seem to be getting better so i hope for them they make huge gains for next season. The split allows better positioning of components including the ice itself, smaller pipe runs to the inter-cooler, smaller inter-coolers, less lag & that leaves the battery charge for more important things. The benefits of all this is huge for the overall design of the car. Even if Ferrari & Renault catch up with HP they will still not be making that HP as efficiently as the mercedes unless they too fundamentally change the design of their ICE units. If either Ferrari or Renault do go that route, well Mercedes will have 3 seasons and multiple teams worth of data head start.

We all know RB will have a very good chassis and aero, they have proven this over many years now but this current mercedes is no dud with the chassis or aero either, as i said before i see no reason their engineers won't be able to come up with something pretty close to whatever RB come up with. I do hope i'm wrong, i would honestly love nothing more than going into each race not knowing who out merc,rb,ferrai,honda or insert whoever is going to win, it's what the sport really needs right now.

And this is where getting rid of the token system will open things up. Through hard work and a lot of testing, Mercedes got it right, the current layout, the correct turbo size, many other factors. All the other engine manufacturers quickly learned what the formula was, but being able to make such radical changes under the token system has proven that a very difficult task. In 2014 the different engine manufacturers discovered a list of priorities, and those came first. It would be nice to relocate the turbo, but that would eat up a heck of a lot of tokens, while other factors were higher up on the list. Just simple things as reliability and getting more power ate up tokens, and each one had to be carefully thought out against a list of priorities.

And despite the fact that everyone had the Mercedes blueprint to work from, each manufacturer had different layouts. And some of them make sense, only if everything else got sorted out. Some of those concepts, such as an intercooler within the cylinder banks is a viable one. And if you just follow what Mercedes are doing, then all you are doing is replicating a year old design, one that will probably never see a win.

As far as something like the chassis and the Mercedes suspension, the teams knew about that long before the public got wind of it. And from that moment, each team have devoted a LOT of people investigating whether that concept would work for their cars, and also build a better mousetrap. Hundreds of engineers would have been ordered to figure out specifically what Mercedes was doing, how it worked, the advantages and disadvantages of the system, whether it would be advantageous for them to implement it, and to also seek a better solution. At this moment, all this research and development has been feeding into the respective 2017 cars. Who knows, a team such as Renault may have a killer suspension in their 2017 car.

And you don't even have to copy, just understand what the devices are doing, their function. The banned Renault mass damper was not the only suspension trick in that category, other teams had completely different equipment (e.g. the inerter) that was performing the same function.

For the long history of Formula One, one thing is constant, that change happens. No team sits on top for long.

[Zoue]

Red Bull will run away with it. As I understand it they pretty much wrote the aero rules.

I thought it was McLaren's proposal that was taken?

[Mercedes-Benz]

Looking at the car comparison from f1fanatic website there is significant changes to look of the car It is impossible to tell which team will do better. I guess engine is more complicated, expensive to improve in relatively short time than aero package. So I do not think it will be impossible for a team to recover in 2nd half of the season. Some teams will be little slower in their R&D and bringing updates etc. I am sure no particular team will dominate. It won't be Mercedes front row always or something like 10wins out of 12races so far only due to both cars having problem in the race.

[Lotus49]

Red Bull will run away with it. As I understand it they pretty much wrote the aero rules.

I thought it was McLaren's proposal that was taken?

I think it was initially a Red Bull proposal that was deemed too radical and rejected and then McLaren put forward a watered down version of it that was then accepted.

[Zoue]

Red Bull will run away with it. As I understand it they pretty much wrote the aero rules.

I thought it was McLaren's proposal that was taken?

I think it was initially a Red Bull proposal that was deemed too radical and rejected and then McLaren put forward a watered down version of it that was then accepted.

ah, ok. Fair enough

[moby]

I think it is going to be all about qualifying in front and staying there, more so even than now. The excuse given today is that the cars can not follow due to lost Aero, but the new cars are going to be even more that way.

I see Red Bull still being king of Air, and them concentrating on getting the best lap time in qualli, which also seems to fit in with Max preferences. Once they are infront, passing is going to be a real problem no matter how much more power anyone else has.

A car that qualifies at, or near, the front and zooms out of bends is going to stay there, and I see it as being Red Bull.

[Blinky McSquinty]

I think it is going to be all about qualifying in front and staying there, more so even than now. The excuse given today is that the cars can not follow due to lost Aero, but the new cars are going to be even more that way.

I see Red Bull still being king of Air, and them concentrating on getting the best lap time in qualli, which also seems to fit in with Max preferences. Once they are infront, passing is going to be a real problem no matter how much more power anyone else has.

A car that qualifies at, or near, the front and zooms out of bends is going to stay there, and I see it as being Red Bull.

One big question will be how much a following car is affected by the turbulence of the car ahead, and how the tires degrade. If attempting a pass, the trailing car suffers less loss of downforce from turbulence, and if the tires can hold up longer while suffering such a situation, then it is possible for wheel to wheel battles to become more common.

[mikeyg123]

I think we will definitely be returning to a more 95-10 style of formula. Some people prefer that, some people won't.

[Randine]

Mercedes domination exactly last the last three years, they will have the same PU advantage & only have to match RBR and whatever chassis/aero they come up with (which they easily do now).

How do you know they match Red Bull in chassis?
Red Bull can not run as much downforce as Merc as they have less power.
If they both had the same power and Red Bull could run the downforce levels they want to run, I think Red Bull would be a head for sure.

For 2017, it might be a return to Merc (used to be McLaren) dominating engine tracks, and Red Bull dominating aero tracks.
It will be very interesting to see what happens.
Red Bull showed in 2009 when Brawn had the double diffuser and Red Bull didn't, how quickly they can adapt. First half of the year Brawn dominated, then the 2nd half Red Bull started winning.
If the season was a few races longer Vettel might have taken the title off Button... (17 races in 2009 vs 21 in 2016)

I would love to see McLaren bounce back. And I think Renault will be much better too.
Williams and Force India might drop back as a result.

Top Merc, Red Bull
Ferrari

McLaren, Renault, Toro Rosso

Hass, Force India, Williams

Manor


SAuber

[djd77]

No doubt this has been asked already, but.....

....if we are starting to talk about diminishing returns and equality/parity within the engine suppliers/teams, why on earth would you choose to change the rules and create the last three years all over again, especially as it could result in an even more noncompetitive formula for another few seasons if a particular team hits the proverbial nail on the head and gets the new rules right from the off ala Mercedes?

[MistaVega23]

Well the previous two rule changes have brought just one dominant team from the get-go, so I'd put my money on either Red Bull or Mercedes running things from the front next season.

[moby]

I think it is going to be all about qualifying in front and staying there, more so even than now. The excuse given today is that the cars can not follow due to lost Aero, but the new cars are going to be even more that way.

I see Red Bull still being king of Air, and them concentrating on getting the best lap time in qualli, which also seems to fit in with Max preferences. Once they are infront, passing is going to be a real problem no matter how much more power anyone else has.

A car that qualifies at, or near, the front and zooms out of bends is going to stay there, and I see it as being Red Bull.

One big question will be how much a following car is affected by the turbulence of the car ahead, and how the tires degrade. If attempting a pass, the trailing car suffers less loss of downforce from turbulence, and if the tires can hold up longer while suffering such a situation, then it is possible for wheel to wheel battles to become more common.

The tyres are also going to be wider, and need more heat into them to work. Will this be helped by following, or will the turbulence and loss of downforce for the following car mean that it is a now or never chance for a pass as after following a short while the tyres no longer work ?

[mikeyg123]

No doubt this has been asked already, but.....

....if we are starting to talk about diminishing returns and equality/parity within the engine suppliers/teams, why on earth would you choose to change the rules and create the last three years all over again, especially as it could result in an even more noncompetitive formula for another few seasons if a particular team hits the proverbial nail on the head and gets the new rules right from the off ala Mercedes?

Historically rule changes tighten the field up.

Look at 2009. The closest grid of all time.

2014 is an anomaly in this but look back through the last 20 years and you will see a trend.

[mikeyg123]

Well the previous two rule changes have brought just one dominant team from the get-go, so I'd put my money on either Red Bull or Mercedes running things from the front next season.

Brawn was fastest after the 09 change....

[UnlikeUday]

Well the previous two rule changes have brought just one dominant team from the get-go, so I'd put my money on either Red Bull or Mercedes running things from the front next season.

Brawn was fastest after the 09 change....

True. This means we also could have a surprise in store!

[Randine]

No doubt this has been asked already, but.....

....if we are starting to talk about diminishing returns and equality/parity within the engine suppliers/teams, why on earth would you choose to change the rules and create the last three years all over again, especially as it could result in an even more noncompetitive formula for another few seasons if a particular team hits the proverbial nail on the head and gets the new rules right from the off ala Mercedes?

The Merc advantage was locked in by the token system.
When Red Bull was winning, any team on the grid could change the front wing design (for example) every single session if they wanted. So really there was nothing to think that every new season they would keep winning.
So if the engines are all similar in power output in 2017, then no team should have a real advantage.

Re another comment about 2009 and Brawn.
Honda had a terrible season in 2008 and early on Honda committed to developing the 2009 car. Then they decided to pull out. Brawn got the team for a song and slapped a Merc in the back and it was the fastest in the first test of the year.

[nixxxon]

2009 changed the grid a lot. Brawn and Red Bull went up in front and the two top teams of the previous two seasons went backwards. Brawn couldn't keep themselves up there though and their dominance only lasted half a season.

In 2005 there was a big rule change aswell, and Ferrari dominance was completely stopped and Renault and McLaren rose upfront.