Hamilton: "why me?"

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Which one do you believe?

Poll ended at Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:09 am

1) Conspiracy against Hamilton
6
11%
2) Pure coincidence
39
68%
3) Something about the way Hamilton drives
6
11%
4) A lone saboteur
6
11%
 
Total votes: 57

iano
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Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by iano »

"After his engine blow out at the Malaysian Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton is curious as to why only his engines are suffering mechanical problems throughout the season." (http://www.planetf1.com/news/hamilton-only-mine/)

So, three possibilities:

1) Conspiracy against Hamilton
2) Pure coincidence (despite odds of 1 in 12,341)
3) Something about the way Hamilton drives
4) a lone saboteur

Consider number 3. Perhaps Hamilton has the ability to push the car that little extra, that just tips what is already right on the limit past that limit?

Edit:-----------
I added a fourth option after more than one person suggested it. In reality I have left of many possibilities (including act of god, intervention by aliens, Hamilton actually being involved, or the perhaps more realistic 'a betting syndicate' - which would really be one of the conspiracy choices)

Many have taken this a why engine failures for Hamilton rather than Rosberg, but as Lewis himself has stated, it seems far more unusual than that as there are several other Mercedes power cars for a statistical base. 43 Mercedes engines, 3 fail, and they all Hamilton engines. With 43 engines, there are 12,341 ways 3 can fail. (43*42*41 over 3!).

Also, while I do not believe in a conspiracy, I find it odd that most seem to only consider a conspiracy by the team hierarchy itself. If it is a conspiracy (and am not suggesting it is), surely conspiracies like some gambling syndicate working with one engineer would be far more likely that the team bosses issuing orders and no one speaking out.
Last edited by iano on Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:56 pm, edited 4 times in total.

lamo

Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by lamo »

Two of Hamiltons failures were on new parts on the MGUK and turbo. Number 3 is very unlikely. I would say 99% coincidence, 1% chance somebody acting, most likely a solo mechanic (i.e. not a top level conspiracy) sabotaging Hamiltons clutch/components. But like I said 1% chance of that

GingerFurball
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Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by GingerFurball »

I don't think it's any of those options.

Number 1 is ludicrous, why sabotage your own team in the WCC just to hand Nico a driver's title? Makes no sense. I think Nico generally gets favoured on strategy calls by the team, but I'm struggling to stretch that to outright sabotage of Hamilton. Particularly as if you had a bunch of engines that you knew were defective, you'd ship them out to Manor and keep the good ones for yourself.

2 is the most likely but we've gone beyond the realms of just bad luck in my opinion. It's not like the Renault engines in 2014 or 15 or 2015's Honda which were just rubbish across the board and affected every driver to a degree. Vettel, for instance, carried worse luck than Ricciardo in 2014 when it came to engine failures, but reliability was an issue for everyone with a Renault in the back of their chassis. The Mercedes hybrid started the era as being more or less bulletproof, has been super reliable for 3 seasons, and seems to be super reliable for everyone else running one this season. It's one driver and one driver alone that is experiencing issues, it just doesn't seem likely that Lewis is just really unlucky this season when there's 7 other drivers on the grid who've had excellent reliability. There must be something at play, however...

if option 3 were true then I think we'd have heard about it and Mercedes would have spotted it and would have been in a position to tell Hamilton "right, you doing x, y and z isn't helping your engine, try and minimise how often you do x, y and z to maximise engine life." I also doubt that Hamilton's driving style would be so drastically different from anyone else to experience issues to the degree he has.

lamo

Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by lamo »

Sabotage could be one mechanic or engineer, literally no one else could know except the one person doing it. In fact if they are smart that would be the case.

Crazier things have happened. Get your wife or friend to place £20k (£2k cash bets at numerous book makers) on Nico title when he was 5/1 to win the title. You just made £60k and screwed the guy you don't like.
Last edited by lamo on Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.

MasterRacer
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Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by MasterRacer »

lamo wrote:Sabotage could be one mechanic or engineer, literally no one else could know except the one person doing it. In fact if they are smart that would be the case.
It's impossible. Please stop posting this stuff in multiple threads.

lamo

Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by lamo »

MasterRacer wrote:
lamo wrote:Sabotage could be one mechanic or engineer, literally no one else could know except the one person doing it. In fact if they are smart that would be the case.
It's impossible. Please stop posting this stuff in multiple threads.
It certainly isn't impossible, very unlikely yes.

wolfticket
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Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by wolfticket »

In all likelihood 2.

People tend to see meaningful patterns where there aren't any and consider fairly rare but inevitable coincidences as impossible (or at least much more unlikely to occur at some point) without some underlying reason. Those who know how you lose money playing roulette will probably be familiar with this.

The big conspiracies are most likely a case of apophenia and something akin to the gambler's fallacy.

There may be other factors but as far as I can see there's no evidence, and that doesn't mean you can just make stuff up that suits you and claim it is plausible.
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chetan_rao
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Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by chetan_rao »

lamo wrote:
MasterRacer wrote:
lamo wrote:Sabotage could be one mechanic or engineer, literally no one else could know except the one person doing it. In fact if they are smart that would be the case.
It's impossible. Please stop posting this stuff in multiple threads.
It certainly isn't impossible, very unlikely yes.
I know far better to call anything impossible outright, but you do realize all parts are rigorously tested and teams are collecting telemetry data constantly throughout a race weekend?

Even assuming it's a lone rogue employee who happens to be smart enough to avoid detection while committing sabotage, there's no way to sabotage telemetry data once the part is in use because a guy working on the actual equipment may not even have access to data systems directly. Considering the amounts of data teams collect and process in modern F1, data trails of a defective part would be impossible to hide, whether it was sabotaged prior to use or just plain faulty to begin with.

There's always the possibility of a mechanic also being a top-of-the-line data analyst and hacker, but then I'd wonder why he'd bother being a low-paid mechanic in F1 when he could take over the world :lol:

flyboy10
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Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by flyboy10 »

I wish people would learn the difference between sabotage/vengeance and conspiracy. A single person doing something to derail another is not a conspiracy. Believing that someone has acted (secretly) or that one person is covering up their actions is not a conspiracy theory. A conspiracy, by definition, involves the actions of two people or more with shared knowledge i.e. conspiring.

Hamilton could possibly be the victim of some secret rogue behaviour but, if it's coming from one person, it's sabotage, not a conspiracy. So there's at least one more option that should be in the poll.

In any event, I think it's quite improbable. I do wonder if there's a difference in how Hamilton and Rosberg drive that creates more engine issues for Hamilton but until someone asked the question (and still now) I think it's random, i.e. bad luck.

It would be a nice thing for Rosberg fans, should he win the WDC because of reliability issues, to blame them on driving styles and therefore inferring that Rosberg was still the better driver.

lamo

Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by lamo »

Playing devils advocate..

Every part has a shelf life and they fail pretty much on target. All it takes is a single component, spring or seal in say an MGUK to have half its normal life expectancy and its a ticking bomb, certain to fail.

Choose a part that is fine and then suddenly fails and it won't show up on telemetry. Whatever failed today, Mercedes say it didn't appear on telemetry and just failed suddenly.

lamo

Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by lamo »

flyboy10 wrote:I wish people would learn the difference between sabotage/vengeance and conspiracy. A single person doing something to derail another is not a conspiracy. Believing that someone has acted (secretly) or that one person is covering up their actions is not a conspiracy theory. A conspiracy, by definition, involves the actions of two people or more with shared knowledge i.e. conspiring.

Hamilton could possibly be the victim of some secret rogue behaviour but, if it's coming from one person, it's sabotage, not a conspiracy. So there's at least one more option that should be in the poll.

In any event, I think it's quite improbable. I do wonder if there's a difference in how Hamilton and Rosberg drive that creates more engine issues for Hamilton but until someone asked the question (and still now) I think it's random, i.e. bad luck.

It would be a nice thing for Rosberg fans, should he win the WDC because of reliability issues, to blame them on driving styles and therefore inferring that Rosberg was still the better driver.
Good points all round

trento
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Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by trento »

Barrichello used to have more problems than Schumacher. I don't think it ever was sabotage. But sometimes a team can focus more on one driver

wolfticket
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Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by wolfticket »

Okay it's a sabotage/vengeance theory rather than a conspiracy theory. Getting the semantics of the suggestion correct doesn't make it any more likely.
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trento
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Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by trento »

It was just an honest mistake on the manufacturing side

chetan_rao
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Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by chetan_rao »

Countering a conspiracy (sabotage for the grammatically conscious) theory definitively is impossible by its very nature.

Is is plausible? Sure.
Is it possible? Sure.
Does anyone believe it happened? Sure, plenty!
Did it actually happen? NO, until proven otherwise!

Excuse the attempt at sanity, let's get back to the theories! ;)

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LKS1
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Re: Hmailton: "why me?"

Post by LKS1 »

flyboy10 wrote:I wish people would learn the difference between sabotage/vengeance and conspiracy. A single person doing something to derail another is not a conspiracy. Believing that someone has acted (secretly) or that one person is covering up their actions is not a conspiracy theory. A conspiracy, by definition, involves the actions of two people or more with shared knowledge i.e. conspiring.

Hamilton could possibly be the victim of some secret rogue behaviour but, if it's coming from one person, it's sabotage, not a conspiracy. So there's at least one more option that should be in the poll.

In any event, I think it's quite improbable. I do wonder if there's a difference in how Hamilton and Rosberg drive that creates more engine issues for Hamilton but until someone asked the question (and still now) I think it's random, i.e. bad luck.

It would be a nice thing for Rosberg fans, should he win the WDC because of reliability issues, to blame them on driving styles and therefore inferring that Rosberg was still the better driver.
Something to discuss/argue about for decades :lol: .

Infinite
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Infinite »

I can see what Lewis meant by saying he doesn't know if he had the car to win the WDC and it was evidently clear as to why.

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mds
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by mds »

Answer: because sh*t happens. You're all welcome.
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Teddy007 »

Option number 4: All the other cars with that engine, it's very strange that it's him constantly having engine failures.

Don't criticize hm for whining when you are whining about his moaning.

Fact is, he has suffered worst luck when compared to other Merc power units (which also includes his team mate).

When even Lowe has admitted there is an issue, they don't know why.

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mds
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by mds »

Teddy007 wrote:Option number 4: All the other cars with that engine, it's very strange that it's him constantly having engine failures.
He and Rosberg are the only ones that can benefit of all the potential in the units through modes not available for customer teams. So if you're comparing like for like, there's only him and Rosberg.
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Sevenfest
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Sevenfest »

Voted 2, but could be something to 3. Though as someone else said, if Lewis' style was engine breaking you'd think that someone would've told him by now.

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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by ALESI »

I don't see that Hamilton was whingeing, he seemed unusually calm actually. OP's suggestion that Hamilton has the ability to push the engine that little bit further is hilarious bs.
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jimmyj
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by jimmyj »

Has to be number 2. You have to feel for him.

lamo

Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by lamo »

Nigel Mansell has also spoken of "bribed mechanics" during his time at Williams with Nelson piquet. I've never heard him go into details on it but he has hinted that there was an attempt from Piquet to bribe Williams mechanics. Does anybody else have any quotes on this?

Mansell was very vocal against Mercedes on UK radio after the race

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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by pokerman »

Infinite wrote:I can see what Lewis meant by saying he doesn't know if he had the car to win the WDC and it was evidently clear as to why.
This, no conspiracy or sabotage but he simply hasn't been given the car to win the title.
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jimmyj
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by jimmyj »

But how does someone doctor an engine so that it blows up near the end of the race? I admit there could be a tampering scandal, but just don't think that's what happened to Lewis. Makes for a good discussion though.

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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by pokerman »

lamo wrote:Nigel Mansell has also spoken of "bribed mechanics" during his time at Williams with Nelson piquet. I've never heard him go into details on it but he has hinted that there was an attempt from Piquet to bribe Williams mechanics. Does anybody else have any quotes on this?

Mansell was very vocal against Mercedes on UK radio after the race
It's unfortunate all of these problems have happened after being given Rosberg's mechanics.
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Covalent »

Would it be the same engine Lewis pushed to the max in Singapore? I'd say it's possibly related to how much they use the most powerful mode, Nico used it for two laps in Malaysia, how much did Lewis?

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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Covalent »

pokerman wrote:
lamo wrote:Nigel Mansell has also spoken of "bribed mechanics" during his time at Williams with Nelson piquet. I've never heard him go into details on it but he has hinted that there was an attempt from Piquet to bribe Williams mechanics. Does anybody else have any quotes on this?

Mansell was very vocal against Mercedes on UK radio after the race
It's unfortunate all of these problems have happened after being given Rosberg's mechanics.
If there's a connection maybe it was due time for Nico to get the "better" ones?

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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by tootsie323 »

Covalent wrote:Would it be the same engine Lewis pushed to the max in Singapore? I'd say it's possibly related to how much they use the most powerful mode, Nico used it for two laps in Malaysia, how much did Lewis?
According to C4, Paddy Lowe had stated that it was a new engine.
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Velocity »

Seriously.. Merc had a real bad day. Where they were looking at a 43 point finish, they got only 15!... If Nice would have been taken out then it would have been zero. On such a day the last they want to hear from one of their drivers say that someone doesn't want him to win. Hamilton could be feeling all unlucky and blaming his fate but the very same fate got him his championship in 2008. He needs to look at what happened to Schumacher in 2006. Kimi in 2005.

Nico looked really relieved 😌 at the driver lounge after the race, must have been doing a silent...yes yes...oh crap that was a close shave....

Quite interesting that these two will have an entirely different psyche going into Suzuka. While Hamilton would be wanting to blow off the entire grid with his thundering pace, Nico would be looking to solidify his lead. Can't wait for next week.

By the way Max Verstappen and Sebastien Vettel could in future get into a fist fight.. Hahahahaha...

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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Blackhander »

The customer teams are essentially all running their engines at less aggressive settings to prolong the lifing of parts as every extra part costs them and the return on investment simply isn't there. Only Mercedes can run super aggressive tunes at no costs so there is only the two cars to be compared, not 8.

That in itself makes sheer coincidence seem far less unlikely and almost certain to be the reason. I wouldn't be surprised if driving style did play into it to some extent as well though. You can't test every variable in the lab and those that you can you can't necessarily test how they will influence each other which means it is entirely plausible that a certain behaviour is shortening the lifespan of parts without anyone knowing why or how or even that it might be a factor at all.
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Blackhander »

Double.
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by aice »

Blackhander wrote:The customer teams are essentially all running their engines at less aggressive settings to prolong the living of parts as every extra part costs them and the return on investment simply isn't there for them. Only Mercedes can run super aggressive tunes at no costs so there is only the two cars to be compared, not 8.

That in itself makes sheer coincidence seem far less unlikely and almost certain to be the reason. I wouldn't be surprised if driving style did play into it to some extent as well. You can't test every variable in the lab and those that you can you can't necessarily test how they will influence each other which means it is entirely plausible that a certain behaviour is shortening the lifespan of parts without anyone knowing why or how or even that it might be a factor at all.
Lowe disagrees--at this stage at least. Considering it was a brand new engine that failed today, i struggle to agree with this. Toto has mentioned it could be due to the supplies " We don't know yet, it looks like a hardware failure on the ICE which is very rare and very freak. It could be a supplies problem, it could be a material problem, but it wasn't anything that we saw coming."
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Asphalt_World »

Number 2. Others are implausible.
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Blackhander »

aice wrote:
Blackhander wrote:The customer teams are essentially all running their engines at less aggressive settings to prolong the living of parts as every extra part costs them and the return on investment simply isn't there for them. Only Mercedes can run super aggressive tunes at no costs so there is only the two cars to be compared, not 8.

That in itself makes sheer coincidence seem far less unlikely and almost certain to be the reason. I wouldn't be surprised if driving style did play into it to some extent as well. You can't test every variable in the lab and those that you can you can't necessarily test how they will influence each other which means it is entirely plausible that a certain behaviour is shortening the lifespan of parts without anyone knowing why or how or even that it might be a factor at all.
Lowe disagrees--at this stage at least. Considering it was a brand new engine that failed today, i struggle to agree with this. Toto has mentioned it could be due to the supplies " We don't know yet, it looks like a hardware failure on the ICE which is very rare and very freak. It could be a supplies problem, it could be a material problem, but it wasn't anything that we saw coming."
As I said it is in all likelihood simply bad luck, especially this weekend being the new engine it is almost certainly a deficiency in the power unit itself that was always going to fail at some point. But in other instances there is always the possibility that something unknown is causing premature failures.
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by nixxxon »

Conspiracy? Seriously? Can anyone actually believe a team like Mercedes would shoot themselves in the foot like that?

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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Asphalt_World »

We'll only know it's a conspiracy when LH tweets the data from the race. :uhoh:
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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Andy2402 »

2

He needs to suck it up and get on with it

I'd like to know what he said to the gathered team afterwards that's drew claps

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Re: Hamilton: "why me?"

Post by Aspar »

At the start of the season i said that this is the last chance for Merc to make a German pilot champ because this is their last year of domination and that coincidences doesn't happen just like that in big corporations where lots and lots of money are put on the table.

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