Monaco, tyre strategy and Ricciardo

[iano]

Ricciardo was able to put in a banker in Q2 strong enough to be safe, but with enough in reserve that he could come back out on the Super Softs and beat his banker.

Very impressive.

But how does that work out? As many have said, lets say he retains the lead until after other have to pit, then those chasing will be on better rubber and should be able to close the gap somewhat.

Then problem happens when Ricciardo pits. First, if his buffer has been reduced by those on better rubber, they will have the undercut. Second, what tire does he then fit?

How does this work?

Any thoughts on tire strategy for the race would be interesting.

[davidheath461]

don't think it matters. Tyres will last - they are too hard. As long as he retains track position he will be fine.

[IDrinkYourMilkshake]

I am starting to feel it's a misstep by Red Bull, an unneccesary one.

For a one stop race: Imagine if Rosberg pits on lap 20, Ricciardo on.. I'm not even sure.. lap 50? By that time everyone would close up to him. He pits and comes out where?

The only thing that makes sense is if they expect it to rain INTO the race, after lap 20, so that others pit, it rains, and they pit again for wet tyres. That saves Ricciardo a pit stop. But if a safety car comes out he loses the gap anyway. Why not just start on ultra-softs and be in the same position, AND be better positioned for a dry race? It's been a long time since F1 decision makers have seemed smarter than the fans, for Ricciardo's sake I hope they are smarter than the head-scratching fans.

[davidheath461]

I am starting to feel it's a misstep by Red Bull, an unneccesary one.

For a one stop race: Imagine if Rosberg pits on lap 20, Ricciardo on.. I'm not even sure.. lap 50? By that time everyone would close up to him. He pits and comes out where?

You're assuming there's no traffic.

[IDrinkYourMilkshake]

I am starting to feel it's a misstep by Red Bull, an unneccesary one.

For a one stop race: Imagine if Rosberg pits on lap 20, Ricciardo on.. I'm not even sure.. lap 50? By that time everyone would close up to him. He pits and comes out where?

You're assuming there's no traffic.

If Mercedes stop just a lap later than the cars behind them, they won't have any traffic to overtake. They will only have lapped cars, which Ricciardo will have too.
Then they can close in on Ricciardo, who'll be on older tyres. Once Ricciardo pits and comes out he'll be faster, but he won't have track position. Can't wait to see what happens tomorrow.

[davidheath461]

I am starting to feel it's a misstep by Red Bull, an unneccesary one.

For a one stop race: Imagine if Rosberg pits on lap 20, Ricciardo on.. I'm not even sure.. lap 50? By that time everyone would close up to him. He pits and comes out where?

You're assuming there's no traffic.

If Mercedes stop just a lap later than the cars behind them, they won't have any traffic to overtake. They will only have lapped cars, which Ricciardo will have too.
Then they can close in on Ricciardo, who'll be on older tyres. Once Ricciardo pits and comes out he'll be faster, but he won't have track position. Can't wait to see what happens tomorrow.

and why would the cars behind the Mercs stop as early as lap 20?

[Schumacher forever#1]

I am starting to feel it's a misstep by Red Bull, an unneccesary one.

For a one stop race: Imagine if Rosberg pits on lap 20, Ricciardo on.. I'm not even sure.. lap 50? By that time everyone would close up to him. He pits and comes out where?

You're assuming there's no traffic.

If Mercedes stop just a lap later than the cars behind them, they won't have any traffic to overtake. They will only have lapped cars, which Ricciardo will have too.
Then they can close in on Ricciardo, who'll be on older tyres. Once Ricciardo pits and comes out he'll be faster, but he won't have track position. Can't wait to see what happens tomorrow.

and why would the cars behind the Mercs stop as early as lap 20?

Because they'll be looking for track position over their rivals while Mercedes can bide their time.

[davidheath461]

I am starting to feel it's a misstep by Red Bull, an unneccesary one.

For a one stop race: Imagine if Rosberg pits on lap 20, Ricciardo on.. I'm not even sure.. lap 50? By that time everyone would close up to him. He pits and comes out where?

You're assuming there's no traffic.

If Mercedes stop just a lap later than the cars behind them, they won't have any traffic to overtake. They will only have lapped cars, which Ricciardo will have too.
Then they can close in on Ricciardo, who'll be on older tyres. Once Ricciardo pits and comes out he'll be faster, but he won't have track position. Can't wait to see what happens tomorrow.

and why would the cars behind the Mercs stop as early as lap 20?

Because they'll be looking for track position over their rivals while Mercedes can bide their time.

They will also encounter traffic. Hence they won't stop early. Hence Mercedes won't stop early.

[mikeyg123]

I am starting to feel it's a misstep by Red Bull, an unneccesary one.

For a one stop race: Imagine if Rosberg pits on lap 20, Ricciardo on.. I'm not even sure.. lap 50? By that time everyone would close up to him. He pits and comes out where?

You're assuming there's no traffic.

If Mercedes stop just a lap later than the cars behind them, they won't have any traffic to overtake. They will only have lapped cars, which Ricciardo will have too.
Then they can close in on Ricciardo, who'll be on older tyres. Once Ricciardo pits and comes out he'll be faster, but he won't have track position. Can't wait to see what happens tomorrow.

I don't think being on old tyres will make a difference. No degradation.

[KingVoid]

Does Ricciardo not have one set of softs available? Could he not use that as his prime stint tyre to cover off the Mercedes guys, or has he already used that set in practice?

[pc27b]

not strategy related, but that red bull livery this year really stands out.

[lamo]

Does Ricciardo not have one set of softs available? Could he not use that as his prime stint tyre to cover off the Mercedes guys, or has he already used that set in practice?

You have to use 2 different compounds. If it is dry, Dan is using the Ultra soft after his one pit stop.

Red Bull strategy feels like they are doing something different expecting to start the race P3 or P4.

[kleefton]

Does Ricciardo not have one set of softs available? Could he not use that as his prime stint tyre to cover off the Mercedes guys, or has he already used that set in practice?

You have to use 2 different compounds. If it is dry, Dan is using the Ultra soft after his one pit stop.

Red Bull strategy feels like they are doing something different expecting to start the race P3 or P4.

Ricciardo does not have to use the ultra softs. He can switch to the soft tire as soon as the Mercs pit and go to the end, hence preventing the undercut. The Mercs will be much faster for the second stint but unable to overtake.

I hadn't thought of that before. Good one Kingvoid.

[lamo]

That would be risky for Dan, his out lap on the soft wouldn't be that strong. It is possible to over cut at Monaco. A 25-30 lap US might have a pace advantage for a lap or two over a new soft. All depends on tyre degredation. Over cutting is possible here due to it taking half a lap or more to get tyres up to temperature.

Also the strategy you just described, he would have been better starting on US and switching to SS. So it still makes no sense qualifying on the SS.

[P1 or Else]

Based upon the commentary of how the sidewalls weren't mating with the softer compound very well causing the twitchy behavior of the cars on the Ultra Soft's - not to mention all the drivers caught kissing barriers in the practice and qualifying while running these tires - Red Bull seems to have a brilliant idea of Daniel grabbing the lead at the start and letting everyone else wrestle with the purple nightmares. Yes, it will be fun to see how it all plays out!

[moby]

My immediate reaction was "clever". But thinking on it, how much of an advantage is it going to be?

2 Sets of tyres will comfortably do the race, and there will not be much difference late in the race when one car has done 20 laps on that tyre, and one done 25 on a softer tyre, which Dan will have to use, as both must be used.

What he will have is a longer window if it looks like it will rain, provided it happens at exactly the right time.


Is it so much of an advantage? or just psychological.

[iano]

Does Ricciardo not have one set of softs available? Could he not use that as his prime stint tyre to cover off the Mercedes guys, or has he already used that set in practice?

You have to use 2 different compounds. If it is dry, Dan is using the Ultra soft after his one pit stop.

Red Bull strategy feels like they are doing something different expecting to start the race P3 or P4.

Ricciardo does not have to use the ultra softs. He can switch to the soft tire as soon as the Mercs pit and go to the end, hence preventing the undercut. The Mercs will be much faster for the second stint but unable to overtake.

I hadn't thought of that before. Good one Kingvoid.

This makes sense, if it is believed that it will be a two stop race for those starting on Ultra Softs. There have been several posts suggesting the Ultra Softs will last 20 laps on cars with a full fuel load. That seems questionable to me.

If it is one stop, then changing to the Ultra Softs seems a problem. Helps for a hard charging finish which makes no sense at Monaco. If you do not have track position and no one else has to stop, then a fast tyre doesnt help. But he cannot change to super softs as he needs two compounds, so the only alternative is to softs.

But rain is predicted. If it does rain when the Mercs have stopped and Ricciardo has not needed to......

It seems almost only the Mercs Ricciardo is racing. The others may not be able to keep up with him even on faster rubber if qualifying times are a guide.
But apparently rain is very likely. It could really he

[simonr23]

If it's dry, dan can just drive as slow as possible(keeping cars behind) but to ensure the cars on ultra soft tyres will fall behind the slower cars once they pit(ie don't build up a gap) then he can go hard and build the gap up, pit and retain the lead. Or, am I missing something?

[infi24r]

If it's dry, dan can just drive as slow as possible(keeping cars behind) but to ensure the cars on ultra soft tyres will fall behind the slower cars once they pit(ie don't build up a gap) then he can go hard and build the gap up, pit and retain the lead. Or, am I missing something?

Exactly.

[iano]

Wonder what effect being on different tyres will contribute to the desperate race to the first corner.
The Mercs could feel there is less point getting in front as Ricciardo will retake when they stop, or that the ablility to dictate the race is so important that the first corner has to be an all or nothing approach.

The other questions is whether grip off the line will be better for the Ultra Softs.

[flyboy10]

So, if Ricciardo starts on super-softs for the race, doesn't he pull away and create a gap to the cars behind him? The other option drivers were talking about today was that he can dictate the pace and back everybody up and make his tyres last much longer by driving slowly. I think he's ensuring himself a good start by being on the super-softs. I'm often surprised at why teams always seems to use the same tyres as each other in Q2 when there might be an advantage to being out of step. You can still get pole on the right tyres for Q3 even if you only come 10th in Q2.

[simonr23]

Ultra softs should have better grip, so dan is a chance to lose the lead into turn one, as he is on the slower tyre.

[Randine]

So, if Ricciardo starts on super-softs for the race, doesn't he pull away and create a gap to the cars behind him? The other option drivers were talking about today was that he can dictate the pace and back everybody up and make his tyres last much longer by driving slowly. I think he's ensuring himself a good start by being on the super-softs. I'm often surprised at why teams always seems to use the same tyres as each other in Q2 when there might be an advantage to being out of step. You can still get pole on the right tyres for Q3 even if you only come 10th in Q2.

So many options. I can't wait for the race!!

I think his best strategy is to back up the field from the start. A bit like Webber did in his last win. He just has to nail the start of the straight each lap and slightly delay the acceleration out of each corner to compromise the cars following.
The top 14 were separated by 1 second in Q2. If the cars are really bunched up behind Ric, then as each one pits, it will be a lottery of track position. I would also expect everyone that didn't make Q3 to follow Ric's lead and use the super soft tyres. If Ham, Ros etc pit in the early stages, they will get then stuck behind the guys in from 11th onwards with the different tyres.
Then hopefully Ric can put his foot down and get a big enough gap and pit safely and take the win.

However there are so many variables. Will it rain, safety cars, hit the barriers, accident off the line.
Ric might be compromised if he doesn't retain the lead into the first corner, but even then I think he could still make that work...

[iano]

So, if Ricciardo starts on super-softs for the race, doesn't he pull away and create a gap to the cars behind him? .....

The others are all starting on the softer and faster ultra-softs, making it very difficult Ricciardo to pull away and create a gap.

.... I'm often surprised at why teams always seems to use the same tyres as each other in Q2 when there might be an advantage to being out of step. You can still get pole on the right tyres for Q3 even if you only come 10th in Q2.

Yes, but you have to make Q3. Ricciardo put in a banker on ultra-softs in Q2 that was good enough to ensure he made Q3, then did managed a fantastic lap that was even faster on super-softs. The time difference between tyre choices is usually sufficient that using anything but the optimum tyre for your fastest Q2 time and you have a huge risk of missing Q3.
Ricciardo managed it but he was the quickest driver on the day, and managed to nail his lap on super-softs. Rare that this can be achieved.

While it is an impressive achievement to get through Q2 with a sub-optimal tyre, there are some questions over the actual benefit for the race.

[oz_karter]

Yes, it is an interesting play because I can see the consensus point that the others will be able to undercut him.

But I think those on US are going to have to pit earlier and that will put them back in the pack, behind mid-fielders who won't have to pit for some time (assuming positions 11 on start on SS).

Ricciardo won't have this issue as he will be out in clean air, able to stay out as long as anyone else.

But then there's lap traffic, the likely safety car issues and the weather.

I think they have a good point about it opening them up to other strategies.

It also isn't completely IMPOSSIBLE to pass, so Dan still has the potential to get by once he is on fresh US late in the race.

One thing is for sure, this will be an interesting Monaco GP given the uncertainty of the strategy and the weather.

[Myopia]

I really hope Ricciardo nails this GP after the strategy debacle last race. I'm not implying there was a conspiracy, it was just the way things work out sometimes, but you could see it stung him. I think his response this week though, shows his maturity and talent as a driver.

As a Ricciardo fan, I'm really glad to see he's come out fighting, and taken this race to the rest of the pack, including his younger team mate, who can only rack this up as experience and grow from it if he chooses to. His time will come.

I can't help the feeling though, that RBR have done it again, and gotten a bit too smart with strategy, and made a P1 finish harder for Dan...we'll see I suppose.

[mcsqueegy]

Food for thought in regards to the start of the race if it remains dry... surely a red flag or safety car would ruin Ricciardo's strategy? The supersoft I heard would run a long distance so given half a chance, I think all the frontrunners would change tyres. I know he'd be much quicker at the end with the Ultrasoft but as we learned in Spain, track position is key...

[trento]

Does Ricciardo not have one set of softs available? Could he not use that as his prime stint tyre to cover off the Mercedes guys, or has he already used that set in practice?

You have to use 2 different compounds. If it is dry, Dan is using the Ultra soft after his one pit stop.

Red Bull strategy feels like they are doing something different expecting to start the race P3 or P4.

Ricciardo does not have to use the ultra softs. He can switch to the soft tire as soon as the Mercs pit and go to the end, hence preventing the undercut. The Mercs will be much faster for the second stint but unable to overtake.

I hadn't thought of that before. Good one Kingvoid.

this means Merc is on 2 stops while RB on one stop?

[trento]

I really hope Ricciardo nails this GP after the strategy debacle last race. I'm not implying there was a conspiracy, it was just the way things work out sometimes, but you could see it stung him. I think his response this week though, shows his maturity and talent as a driver.

As a Ricciardo fan, I'm really glad to see he's come out fighting, and taken this race to the rest of the pack, including his younger team mate, who can only rack this up as experience and grow from it if he chooses to. His time will come.

I can't help the feeling though, that RBR have done it again, and gotten a bit too smart with strategy, and made a P1 finish harder for Dan...we'll see I suppose.

i think he understands last race was just bad luck, considering Ferrari also gave Vettel the same strategy. There's no favoritism and this race Max is nowhere.

[trento]

Ultra softs should have better grip, so dan is a chance to lose the lead into turn one, as he is on the slower tyre.

it's a short run to turn 1. just do a little weaving to slow down the back cars.

[kmac]

I imagine RBR's strategy would look something like this? Assuming it's a dry one-stop race.

PLAN A: One stop for Ultra Softs (Lap 45-78)
Scenarios:
-Ricciardo stays in P1 and has longer first stint; as long as he has the tyres/pace to keep the gap over the Mercs/Vettel until his pit window opens.
-Ricciardo drops position(s) at the start, but has pace to stay close enough and build a gap for the overcut after the Mercs/Vettel pit.

PLAN B: One stop for Softs (Lap 1-45)
Scenarios:
-Ricciardo doesn't have pace to build a gap; with the undercut not as effective at Monaco he should be able to react to the Mercs/Vettel by stopping a lap later without giving up track position.
-Red Flag or safety car in Mercs/Vettel pit window; Ricciardo has to complete his stops to maintain track position.

[cm97]

My two cents worth here...
If I recall correctly Red Bull used the over cut to their advantage with Vettel here in 2012 and it looked as if he was going to win the race for a while. If the race is cold (with rain around it isn't exactly going to be warm) and Mercedes can't generate temperature in the Supersoft (assuming they put them on after the stop) then Ricciardo may be able to lap quicker than them, even if he isn't leading prior to the Mercs pit stops.
There's a lot of variables here for Red Bull and given their genuine speed I like many others here am surprised they are trying this. If anything Ferrari who tend to have stronger race pace (relative to their qualifying) should have tried this strategy on Kimi and potentially Seb's car. That is sit in traffic, wait for them to pit and then push hard and see what comes of it.

[Caserole of Nonsense]

i dont think the undercut is going to be worth much as the wear is so low. the ultras will drop off quicker but the cars on them wont want to pit too early due to traffic and length of second stint. i think ric can lap pretty close to what the cars on fresh supers are doing and should have been able to eak out a gap before the first round of pits. it could work if he genuinely has the race pace of the mercs.

if its wet.....

[iano]

The biggest challenge I could see is a red flag just before the ultrasofts need to pit. Then everyone would pit under the safety car. Ricciardo either joins them but has to run softs as he cannot switch to supersofts, or delays his stop with the risk they will get him when he pits.
I think that is the worst case.

Rain makes things complex. It is raining now and heavier rain with thunderstorms predicted. Unless it all clears earlier than expected it is likely they will start on wets or inters and this all becomes irrelevant.

[Migen]

With 1 or 2 Safety cars periods during the race, almost guarantied... the tire choice for the start, be it soft or SS its still a gamble and the whole strategy after that will be dictated by SC periods. Its Monaco after all.

[GingerFurball]

Seems a moot point as the track won't be dry for the start of the race.

[flyboy10]

I don't know one tyre compound from another any more. I thought the super-softs were the softest ones this weekend. Why can't they take the same number of compounds to every race and call them A, B and C albeit a different A, B and C from those at the previous race?